Materials and the Environmentt

Part 2 – World Raw Material Consumption Trends and

Environmental Implications of Increasing Consumption

(Most recent update April 1, 2013)

World Raw Material Consumption TrendsWorld Raw Material Consumption Trends

Molybdenum mining in Colorado

• World and U.S. populations are growing.

• World economic growth is much more rapid than the rate of population growth– as a result, per capita consumption of goods of all kinds is rising globally.

World Raw Material Consumption Trends

World Demand for Selected Raw World Demand for Selected Raw Materials, 1961 – 2012Materials, 1961 – 2012

Materials Used in Greatest QuanityMaterials Used in Greatest Quanity(Million Metric Tons)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

Raw SteelInd. WoodFuel WoodCement

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013). Data for wood from UN, FAOStat Forestry (2013).

World Demand for Selected Raw World Demand for Selected Raw Materials, 1961 – 2012Materials, 1961 – 2012

Important Metals(Million Metric Tons)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

TinNickelLeadZincCopperAluminum

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013).

World Growth in Consumption World Growth in Consumption of Principal Raw Materials, of Principal Raw Materials,

1961-20121961-2012(Population growth during this period: 2.28x)

Steel Cement Aluminum Plastics Wood

4.26x 11.10x 9.45x 48.33x 1.60x

Source: Data for wood from FAO (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the Association of Plastics Manufacturers in

Europe (2013).

U.S. Demand for Selected Raw U.S. Demand for Selected Raw Materials, 1961 – 2012Materials, 1961 – 2012

Materials Used in Greatest Quantity(Million Metric Tons)

050

100150200250300350400450500

1961

1964

1967

1970

1973

1976

1979

1982

1985

1988

1991

1994

1997

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

TinNickelLeadZincCopperAluminumRaw SteelWoodCement

Source: U.S. Geological Survey, Commodity Summary Statistics (2013). Data for 2010-2011 wood consumption from UN, FAOStat

Forestry (2013); 2012 est.

Great recession

If a full array of raw materials, including industrial minerals

(limestone, clay, sand, gravel), are added to a graphic of materials

consumption growth, the picture is even more dramatic.

U.S. Raw Nonfuel Minerals Put into Use Annually from 1900 through

2010 (materials embedded in imported goods not included)

Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2012).

U.S. Raw Raw Materials Put into Use Annually from 1900 through 2010 (materials embedded in imported goods not

included)

Source: U.S. Geological Survey (2012).

In the next slide, raw material consumption growth is shown for two time periods for the United

States: 1961-2005 and 1961-2012.

Note the dramatically different numbers – pre-great recession and with the recent recession included

within the time frame. Consumption patterns are likely to soon return to the

1961-2005 pattern.

U.S. Growth in Basic Raw U.S. Growth in Basic Raw Materials Consumption, Materials Consumption, 1961-2005 and 1961-2012 1961-2005 and 1961-2012

Steel Cement Aluminum Plastics

Wood

Population growth 1961-2005 – 1.61x

‘61-’05 1.68x 2.26x 3.48x 49.90x 2.37x

Population growth 1961-2012 – 1.71x

‘61-’12 1.51x 1.39x 2.63x 42.40x 1.57x

Source: Data for wood from USFS and estimates (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from

the National Commission on Materials Policy (1975) and the American Plastics Council (2013).

Principal raw materials globally and in the United States are

cement, wood, and steel.

Annual World Consumption of Various Raw Materials,

2011 Billion

Metric tons Billion m3

Cement 3.600 1.1Roundwood 1.739 3.5Industrial roundwood* 0.794 1.6Steel 1.520 0.19Plastics 0.280 0.31Aluminum 0.044 0.01

* The difference between roundwood and industrial roundwood is wood used for fuel. Roundwood includes both fuelwood and wood used in construction, and for making paper, furniture, and other wood products.

Source: Data for wood from FAO (2013); for cement, aluminum, and steel from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics from the Association of Plastics Manufacturers in

Europe (2013).

Annual U.S. Consumption of Various Raw Materials, 2011

Million Metric tons

Million m3

Roundwood* 145 341Forest products (wood only) 128 300Cement 72 23Steel 90 12Plastics 47.5 53Aluminum 3.6 1.3

Source: Data for wood from UNECE (2013); for cement, steel, and aluminum from the U.S. Geological Survey (2013); and for plastics

from the American Plastics Council (2012).

* Roundwood is the volume of all wood harvested.

More wood is consumed every year in the United States than all metals and all plastics combined.

In view of this high and continuing rate of consumption, does this mean that the world is

likely to soon run out of essential raw materials?

The good news is that the world is unlikely to physically run out of

most types of raw materials anytime soon.

However, there are a number of factors that may combine at

some point to limit availability of critical resources.

These include rising competition among nations and regions for resources,

social issues, and environmental concerns.

Consider Mineral Consider Mineral ResourcesResources

Mineral resources have become more and more widely available despite (and partly because of) growing rates of consumption.

Lower Grades of Ore

Lowest Grades of Ore

Highest Grades of Ore (generally exploited

first)

Ore quality is declining as consumption of metals rises.

High quality ore contains a high percentage of metallic element in

a given amount of ore.

Low quality ore contains a low percentage of metallic element in

a given amount of ore.

Note: products that originate from low grade ore are not inferior in quality to products that originate from high grade ore.

There is a strong tendency for mineral resources to increase in quantity as the quality that can be economically exploited goes

down.

Lower Grades of Ore

Lowest Grades of Ore

Highest Grades of Ore (generally exploited

first)

There is a strong tendency for mineral resources to increase in quantity as the quality that can be economically

exploited goes down.

Decreasing ore quality

Increasing ore availability

Reserves of metals are typically expressed in years . .

. or specifically as

World Reserves Indices

To calculate the World Reserves Index, known reserves of a mineral

that can be• extracted economically • at today’s prices • using today’s technology

are divided by current annual consumption of that mineral.

World Reserves of Selected World Reserves of Selected Metals Metals (expressed in years of supply)

Metal Reserves (years)

Iron Ore 178

Aluminum 219

Zinc 19

Manganese 43

Lead 20

Copper 35

Nickel 51

Uranium 65

Titanium 79

Source: Richards, J. 2009. Mining, Society, and a Sustainable World.

These numbers are sometimes interpreted as indicating that the world is about to run out

of minerals.

However, World Reserve Index values tend to remain constant

or even rise over time.

Nothing said here should be interpreted that all metals are

infinitely available.

Also, while long-term Also, while long-term availability of most metals is availability of most metals is

not an issue, the not an issue, the environmental environmental impacts impacts of procuring and of procuring and

processing ore, and especially processing ore, and especially increasingly lower grades of increasingly lower grades of

ore, present significant ore, present significant challenges. challenges.

Also, while long-term Also, while long-term availability of most metals is availability of most metals is

not an issue, the not an issue, the environmental environmental impacts impacts of procuring and of procuring and

processing ore, and especially processing ore, and especially increasingly lower grades of increasingly lower grades of

ore, present significant ore, present significant challenges. challenges.

Environmental concerns related to mining and metals production center on long-term impacts to nearby populations, landscapes, water supplies, and air quality and large impacts of conversion of ore to base metals and useful products.

Environmental concerns related to mining and metals production center on long-term impacts to nearby populations, landscapes, water supplies, and air quality and large impacts of conversion of ore to base metals and useful products.

Consider Wood Resources

Consider Wood Resources

Wood is a renewable resourceWood is a renewable resource. . It is infinitely renewable as long It is infinitely renewable as long as the forests from which it is as the forests from which it is

obtained are managed obtained are managed sustainablysustainably.

There are about 4 billion There are about 4 billion hectares (10 billion acres) of hectares (10 billion acres) of

forests in the worldforests in the world.

Source: United Nations, FAO, Global Forest Resources Assessment, 2010.

While forest area is declining in some parts of the world, it is stable or increasing in others.Decreasin

gStable or increasing

Similar trends can be seen in forest carbon stocks.

Planted forests now make up about 7% of the total forest area globally – 264 million hectares (652 million acres).These supply about one-quarter of the annual harvest of wood used for forest products.

Estimated Deforestation by Type of Forest and Time Period

Source: United Nations, FAO, State of the World’s Forests – 2012.

Deforestation is ongoing, but at a declining rate worldwide. Losses are wholly withintropical regions and largely attributable toconversion to agriculture – although other factors, including indiscriminate logging, play a role.

In the United States, the In the United States, the World’s Largest Producer World’s Largest Producer and Consumer of Wood and Consumer of Wood

Products:Products:• Forest cover is within 1% of what it

was in the early 1900s (33% of the land area).

• Net growth greatly exceeds removals.

• Forest inventory is increasing.

• Forest carbon stocks are increasing.

• Ongoing technology improvements have greatly increased the efficiency of wood use – now 99%+ of each log harvested.

Trends in U.S. Forestland Area 1630-2009

1045

759 732 760 756 762 755 744 739 737 747 751

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1630 1907 1920 1938 1953 1963 1970 1977 1987 1992 1997 2009

Million

Acre

s

Source: USDA – Forest Service, 2009.

U.S. Timber Growth and Removals, 1920 - 2006

Billions of cubic feet/ year

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1920 1933 1952 1976 1986 1996 2006

Net GrowthRemovals

Source: USDA - Forest Service

Figures above only include growth on forest land where periodic harvesting is allowed. Growth in reserves, parks, and wilderness areas is

not included.

Standing Timber Inventory – U.S. 1952-2007

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

1952 1962 1970 1976 1986 1991 1997 2002 2007

Hardwoods Softwoods

Billion

Cu

bic

Feet

Source: USDA-Forest Service, 2007.

Inventory only includes forest land where periodic harvesting is allowed. Timber volumes in reserves, parks, and wilderness areas are not included.

Forest Soil Carbon Inventory, Forest Soil Carbon Inventory, U.S. 1990-2010U.S. 1990-2010

05

1015202530354045

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010

Soil Organic C Litter

Dead Wood Belowground Biomass

Aboveground Biomass

Billion

Ton

s C

arb

on

Source: USEPA (2012). Inventory of US Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Sinks, 1990-2011, p. 7-15.

A History of Wood Utilization Efficiency in the U.S.

Source: Bowyer (2012). Data for United States, 2005.

Perc

en

t of

Log

Volu

me

En

teri

ng

Saw

mill

1930 1970 1985 2005

1009080706050403020100

Lumber

Other Products

Energy Production

Uses of Material Processed at U.S. Milling Sites - 2005

Source: Bowyer (2012). Data for United States, 2005.

• 52% processed into lumber.• 36% converted to paper, particleboard,

fiberboard, insulation board.• 11-12% used to generate energy.• ≤1% waste.

Consider the following illustration of the

renewable nature of forests – and of the wood

that they produce.

Consider the following illustration of the

renewable nature of forests – and of the wood

that they produce.

U.S. Population, Wood Harvest, and Net Forest Growing Stock

Volume, 1952 and 2007

0100200300400500600700800900

1000

U.S. Population Annual WoodHarvest

Net GrowingStock Volume

19522007

Mill

ion

m

3

Bill

ion

ft3

Mill

ion

s

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2005; U.S. Forest Service, 2004.

Annual wood harvest expressed in m3 and growing stock in ft3 to fit to axes.

Between 1952 and 2007, timber harvests increased by 3.8 billion cubic feet annually. So what happened to the volume of growing in U.S. forests?

Growing stock

volume increased by over 50%!

Environmental concerns linked to forest harvesting

center around fears of deforestation and

effects on forest values other than wood.

Environmental concerns linked to forest harvesting

center around fears of deforestation and

effects on forest values other than wood.

Summary

Summary•Consumption of both renewable and non-

renewable raw materials is increasing.

•Ongoing improvements in technology and informed management has allowed resource availability to keep pace with increasing consumption.

•The world will not “run out” of raw materials anytime soon, though there are concerns about future availability of some key minerals.

Summary•With sustainable management

(such as practiced in the United States), forests – and the wood that they produce, will never run out.

•Environmental concerns related to rising resource use are increasing.