world energy outlook: the role of nuclear & renewables
DESCRIPTION
Intervenant: Fatih birol Chief Economist - Director, Global Energy Economics International Energy Agency thèmes: shifts in the global energy system shifting, oil & gas, nuclear & renewables, world economy Présentation lors de la convention SFEN du 4 avril 2013. Retrouvez la vidéo de la conférence à la fin de la présentation ou sur youtube. http://youtu.be/Mbmp49ISwrATRANSCRIPT
The role of The role of
nuclear & nuclear & renewablesrenewables
© OECD/IEA 2013
Dr. Fatih BIROL
IEA Chief Economist
Paris, 3 April 2013
The contextThe context
� Foundations of global energy system shifting
� Resurgence in oil & gas production in some countries
� Retreat from nuclear in some others
� Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
© OECD/IEA 2013
� Signs of increasing policy focus on energy efficiency
� Changing global energy map likely to have significant
implications for competiveness & geopolitics
� All-time high oil prices acting as brake on EU economic recovery
� Economy & energy: a delicate balancing act in the context of need
for decisive & effective global climate change policy
Emerging economies steer energy markets Emerging economies steer energy markets
Share of global energy demand
60%
80%
100%
Middle East
India
China
Non-OECDRest of non-OECD
6 030 Mtoe 12 380 Mtoe 16 730 Mtoe
© OECD/IEA 2013
Global energy demand rises by over one-third in the period to 2035,
underpinned by rising living standards in China, India & the Middle East
20%
40%
60%
1975 2010 2035
China
OECD
A United States oil & gas transformation A United States oil & gas transformation
US oil & gas production
Unconventional gas
mboe/d
15
20
25
© OECD/IEA 2013
The surge in unconventional oil & gas production has implications
well beyond the United States
Conventional gas
Unconventional oil
Conventional oil
5
10
15
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2035
Different trends in oil & gasDifferent trends in oil & gas
import dependencyimport dependency
Net oil & gas import dependency in selected countries
60%
80%
100%Gas Imports
European Union
Japan
2010
2035
© OECD/IEA 2013
While dependence on imported oil & gas rises in many countries,
0%
20%
40%
20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Oil imports
United States
ChinaIndia
20%Gas Exports
the United States swims against the tide
Unconventional gas: implicationsUnconventional gas: implications
for both energy security & economyfor both energy security & economy
10
12
14
16
Do
lla
rs p
er
MB
tu (
20
12
)
5
6
7
8
Mil
lion
to
nn
es US steam coal exports to EU
(right axis)
US gas price
(Henry Hub)
© OECD/IEA 2013
At its highest level in 2012, EU gas prices traded about 5 times higher than in the US;
a price decoupling stemming from oil indexation & the unconventional gas revolution
0
2
4
6
8
1Q2007 1Q2008 1Q2009 1Q2010 1Q2011 1Q2012
Do
lla
rs p
er
MB
tu (
20
12
)
0
1
2
3
4 Europe gas price
(German import)
4Q2012
EU gas imports:EU gas imports:
prospects for improved pricingprospects for improved pricing
156 bcm per year of EU gas import contracts expiring before 2025 by source
Russia: pipe
Egypt: LNG
Qatar: LNG
Other: LNG
© OECD/IEA 2013
Gas contracts equal to two-thirds of EU imports from external sources are expiring
before 2025, at time when LNG & unconventional gas is expected to grow strongly
Algeria: pipeAlgeria: LNG
Nigeria: LNG
Economics of power generationEconomics of power generation
& CO& CO22 pricesprices
European Union, January 2013
CO2 cost
Fuel cost
60
80
100$/MWh
© OECD/IEA 2013
Current CO2 price
8 $/tonneBreak-even CO2 price
67 $/tonne
Each $1 per MBtu of additional gas-coal spread requires
a further $15 per tonne of CO2 price to achieve cost parity
0
20
40
60
Coal plant Gas plant
A power shift to emerging economiesA power shift to emerging economies
Change in power generation, 2010-2035
China
Coal Gas Nuclear Renewables
India
© OECD/IEA 2013
3 000 4 000 5 000 6 000
TWh
2 000
Need for electricity in emerging economies drives a 70% increase in global demand,
with renewables accounting for half of new global capacity
-1 000 0 1 000
Japan
European Union
United States
TWh
90
120
150GW 2011
2035
Nuclear installed gross capacity in selected regions
Asia leading the rise in nuclear capacityAsia leading the rise in nuclear capacity
© OECD/IEA 2013
0
30
60
90
China EuropeanUnion
UnitedStates
Japan & Korea
Russia India
Majority of nuclear additions come from just four countries – China, Korea,
India & Russia – with half of world net incremental capacity from China alone
Wide variations in the price of powerWide variations in the price of power
Average household electricity prices, 2035
15
20
25cents/kWh
2011
OECD
© OECD/IEA 2013
Electricity prices are set to increase with the highest prices persisting
in the European Union & Japan, well above those in China & the United States
5
10
15
China United States European Union Japan
2011
Non-OECD
average
OECD
average
60%
80%
100%
Sha
re o
f e
lect
rici
ty g
en
era
tio
n
800
1 000
1 200TWh
EUEU moving towards cleaner formsmoving towards cleaner forms
of electricity generationof electricity generation
EU electricity generation by selected low carbon technology
& share of generation by scenario
450
Change to
2035 over 2010:
2010
© OECD/IEA 2013
0%
20%
40%
60%
Low
carbon
Sha
re o
f e
lect
rici
ty g
en
era
tio
n
0
200
400
600
Nuclear Hydro Wind Bio-
energy
Solar
PV
Other
renew.
CCS
450
NPS
Wind & solar push up the share of renewables, with low-carbon reaching
two-thirds of total generation in the NPS & around 90% in the 450 Scenario
Gas
15%
Potential emissions from
Staying within a 2Staying within a 2°°°°°°°°C worldC world
CO2 equivalent of today’s fossil fuel reserves
2°C carbon
budget
© OECD/IEA 2013
Coal
63%
Oil
22%
Potential emissions from
fossil fuels reserves
2 860 Gt CO2
In a 2°C world, more than two-thirds of current fossil fuel reserves
cannot be consumed before 2050 unless CCS is widely deployed
budget
ConclusionsConclusions
� Policy makers face critical choices in reconciling energy,
environmental & economic objectives
� Changing outlook for energy production & use may redefine
energy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances
© OECD/IEA 2013
energy pricing, economic competiveness & geopolitical balances
� Shifting away from nuclear can have significant implications for a
country’s energy security, electricity prices & climate change objectives
� Other key policies to improve European energy cost competitiveness:
leverage prospect of many long-term gas contracts expiring; bolster
domestic gas supply & energy efficiency; effective renewables policy