world energy outlook 2015 - international energy agency united states 258 16 world energy outlook...

POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK

RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK

INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE

GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2040

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK

NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK

COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

LOW OIL PRICE SCENARIO

OUTLOOK FOR UNCONVENTIONAL GAS

IMPLICATIONS OF INDIA’S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

OUTLOOK FOR INDIA’S ENERGY CONSUMPTION

OUTLOOK FOR INDIA’S ENERGY SUPPLY

ENERGY IN INDIA TODAY

ANNEXES

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ANNEXES

INDIA

ENERGY

OUTLOOK

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TABL

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GLOBAL

ENERGY

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POWER SECTOR OUTLOOK

RENEWABLE ENERGY OUTLOOK

ENERGY EFFICIENCY OUTLOOK

INTRODUCTION AND SCOPE

GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS TO 2040

OIL MARKET OUTLOOK

NATURAL GAS MARKET OUTLOOK

COAL MARKET OUTLOOK

LOW OIL PRICE SCENARIO

OUTLOOK FOR UNCONVENTIONAL GAS

IMPLICATIONS OF INDIA’S ENERGY DEVELOPMENT

OUTLOOK FOR INDIA’S ENERGY CONSUMPTION

OUTLOOK FOR INDIA’S ENERGY SUPPLY

ENERGY IN INDIA TODAY

ANNEXES

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14 World Energy Outlook 2015

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Foreword 3Acknowledgements 5Executive Summary 21

Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS 31

Introduction and scope 31Scope of the report 32Methodological approach 32

Modelling framework 32Defining the scenarios 34

Main non-policy assumptions 36The economy 36Demographic trends 40Carbon-dioxide prices 41Technology 43

Energy supply costs and prices 46Oil prices 46Natural gas prices 51Coal prices 52

Global energy trends to 2040 53Introduction 54Overview of energy trends by scenario 55Energy trends in the New Policies Scenario 61

Energy demand 61Energy supply 78Inter-regional energy trade 88Energy sector investment 92Energy-related CO2 emissions 94

Topics in focus 96Fossil-fuel subsidies 96Access to modern energy 101

Oil market outlook 111Oil price fall and the long-term outlook 112

The story so far 114Demand 118

Regional trends 118Sectoral trends 120Trends by product 128

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Production 130Resources and reserves 130Production prospects 132

Refining and trade 143Investment and costs 147

Low Oil Price Scenario 153What could keep oil prices down for longer? 154

Key assumptions 155Outcomes in the Low Oil Price Scenario 157

Oil demand 159Oil production 164Focus: tight oil – a new balancing element in the oil market? 168Refining and trade 177Implications for other fuels and technologies 178Implications for economies, energy security and sustainability 184

Natural gas market outlook 193The search for a new natural gas balance 194Demand 196

Regional trends 196Sectoral trends 201

Production 203Resources and reserves 203Production prospects 204Methane emissions 212

Trade and investment 215Focus: LNG costs and the competitive position of natural gas 222

Outlook for unconventional gas 229A multi-speed revolution? 230Unconventional gas production prospects to 2040 231

Overview by country 233Inside the US shale storm 237

Weathering the decline in natural gas prices 239Long-term outlook for US unconventional gas 243

Unconventional gas in China: a long wait for take-off? 245Policy environment and production outlook 247Barriers to unconventional gas supply 252Implications for China and global gas markets 254

Unconventional gas regulation: revisiting the “Golden Rules” 257United States 258

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Canada 261Australia 263Key public concerns and trends in unconventional gas regulation 266

Coal market outlook 269Overview 270Demand 276

Regional trends 276Sectoral trends 278

Supply 280Reserves and resources 280Production 281Trade 283Coal prices and costs 285

Regional insights 290China 290United States 292South Africa 294Southeast Asia 295Australia 297

Power sector outlook 299Context 300Electricity demand 304Electricity supply 310

Overview 310Power generation capacity 311Power generation 315Investment 320Power generation costs 322Electricity prices 326Electricity-related carbon-dioxide emissions 329

Focus on coal-fired power generation 330Coal-fired power generation capacity 330Power generation and coal plant efficiencies 332CO2 emissions due to coal-fired power generation 335Impact of local water scarcity on coal-fired power 337

Renewable energy outlook 343Recent developments 344

Policy developments 344Market and industry developments 345

Outlook by scenario 347

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Outlook by sector in the New Policies Scenario 349Global trends 349Power sector 350Industry and buildings 361Transport 362Avoided CO2 emissions 365

Economics of renewables 368Investment 368Competitiveness 372Subsidies 380

Energy efficiency outlook 387Introduction 388Current status of energy efficiency 388

Recent trends 388Energy efficiency regulation 392

Outlook for energy efficiency 396Remaining energy efficiency potential 398Trends by sector 400Avoided CO2 emissions 408Investment 408

Focus: material efficiency in energy-intensive industries 409Introduction 409Method 412Impact on energy-intensive sectors 414Policy recommendations and costs 421

Part B: INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK 425

Energy in India today 427Introducing the special focus on India 428Key energy trends in India 428

Demand 428Electricity 433Access to modern energy 436Energy production and trade 438

Factors affecting India’s energy development 445Economy and demographics 445Policy and institutional framework 448Energy prices and affordability 451Social and environmental aspects 454Investment 456

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Projecting future developments 458Economic and population growth 459Energy prices 460Policies 461

Outlook for India’s energy consumption 463India: a rising force in global energy demand 464

Overview and outlook by fuel 465End-use sectors 470

Buildings 471Industry 477Transport 483Agriculture 488

Power sector 489Electricity demand 490Electricity supply 494Transmission and distribution 503

Implications for air quality 504

Outlook for India’s energy supply 507Energy supply in India 508Coal 508

Coal quality, resources and reserves 508Costs 510Production prospects 511Transport and handling infrastructure 517Coal imports 519

Oil and natural gas 521Resources and reserves 521Oil supply 523Natural gas 527

Renewable energy 532Solar power 534Wind power 539Hydropower 540Bioenergy 541

Nuclear power 543

Implications of India’s energy development 547What route to centre stage? 548Implications of the New Policies Scenario 549

Energy-related CO2 emissions and climate change 555

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An Indian Vision Case 559Investing in India’s energy future 568

Investment in energy efficiency 568Investment in energy supply 572

ANNEXES Annex A. Tables for scenario projections 581Annex B. Policies and measures by scenario 661Annex C. Definitions 673Annex D. References 685

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List of figures

Part A: GLOBAL ENERGY TRENDS

Figures for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope

1.1 Change in value-added GDP contribution by sector, 2014-2040 391.2 Energy-related CO2 emissions and economic growth, 2005-2014 401.3 Evolution of energy technology costs per unit in the New Policies Scenario,

2014-2040 431.4 Non-OPEC supply cost curves for 2015 and 2040 in the New Policies Scenario 481.5 Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario 491.6 Coal price relative to gas price by region in the New Policies Scenario 52

Figures for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040

2.1 World primary energy demand and CO2 emissions by scenario 552.2 Energy-related CO2 emission levels and GDP by selected region in

the Bridge Scenario 592.3 Cumulative world energy sector investment by sector and scenario,

2015-2040 602.4 Primary energy demand and GDP by selected region in the

New Policies Scenario, 1990-2040 612.5 Primary energy demand by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 622.6 Change in demand by fuel and selected region in the

New Policies Scenario 642.7 Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 662.8 Primary energy demand and energy intensity of GDP in the

New Policies Scenario 682.9 Change in world energy consumption in industry in the New Policies Scenario 722.10 Primary energy demand by selected region in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 732.11 World energy demand by fuel and sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 762.12 Average fuel economy of PLDVs and vehicle kilometres travelled by region

in the New Policies Scenario, 2025 772.13 Proven reserves and production in the New Policies Scenario 792.14 Oil production by region in the New Policies Scenario 822.15 World electricity generation by type in the New Policies Scenario 852.16 Average efficiency of coal-fired power plants by region in the

New Policies Scenario 872.17 Growth in renewables electricity generation by region and type

in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 882.18 Net trade by selected region and fuel in the New Policies Scenario 912.19 Cumulative investment in energy supply by selected region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 932.20 Change in energy-related CO2 indicators by selected region in the

New Policies Scenario 95

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2.21 Contributing factors to the change in the value of fossil-fuel consumption subsidies 97

2.22 Government revenues and expenditures, and fossil-fuel subsidies in the Middle East oil-exporting countries 100

2.23 Number and duration of monthly electrical outages by selected countries 1032.24 Household average electricity consumption of selected equipment in Ghana

with and without energy efficiency standards, 2013 1042.25 World energy access investment by type and source, 2013 1062.26 Share of the population with access to electricity and clean cooking facilities

by region in the New Policies Scenario 108

Figures for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook

3.1 World oil demand and price by scenario 1133.2 Trends in oil intensity and GDP per capita in selected countries and regions 1153.3 Index of gasoline pump prices in national currencies relative to the price of

Brent crude oil in US dollars 1163.4 Global upstream oil and gas investment 1173.5 Fuel economy of new passenger car sales in the United States and China 1223.6 Payback periods of LNG-powered long-haul trucks in the

United States and European Union in the New Policies Scenario 1233.7 Heat generation cost of fossil-fuel based industrial boilers in China in the

New Policies Scenario 1243.8 Revenue passenger-kilometres in aviation by region in the

New Policies Scenario 1263.9 Oil demand in international and domestic aviation by region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2040 1273.10 Top-ten global product markets in the New Policies Scenario 1303.11 Change in non-OPEC and OPEC oil production by five-year periods in the

New Policies Scenario 1333.12 Change in oil production in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario,

2014-2040 1413.13 Crude oil balance in the East of Suez region in the New Policies Scenario 1463.14 Global upstream oil and gas investment and the IEA Upstream Investment

Cost Index 1483.15 Global fossil-fuel demand in the 450 Scenario relative to the


Figures for Chapter 4: Low Oil Price Scenario

4.1 Average IEA crude oil import price by scenario 1544.2 Change in global primary energy demand by fuel in the

Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 1584.3 Change in world oil demand by source in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative

to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 1594.4 Change in global oil demand by sector in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative

to the New Policies Scenario 161

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4.5 Change in global transport sector oil demand in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 162

4.6 Change in non-OPEC and OPEC oil production by five-year periods in the Low Oil Price Scenario 164

4.7 Change in world oil production by type in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 166

4.8 Change in cumulative oil and gas upstream investment and cumulative production by key region in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 167

4.9 Change in oil supply by selected region in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 168

4.10 Average field decline curves for US tight oil and world conventional oil 1694.11 Average lead times between final investment decision and first production

for different oil resource types 1704.12 Indicative supply response of US tight oil for the period 2014-2020, based

on costs in the New Policies Scenario, for a range of 2020 oil prices 1714.13 Distribution of estimated ultimate recovery per well in the

Bakken tight oil play 1734.14 Estimated ultimate recovery per well and indicators of well complexity in

the Bakken tight oil play 1744.15 Estimated ultimate recovery per well and indicators of well complexity in

the Eagle Ford tight oil play 1744.16 Evolution of number of wells drilled per month per active drilling rig in

selected US tight oil plays 1754.17 Estimated ultimate recovery per well and density of wells by county in the

Bakken tight oil play, end-2014 1764.18 Estimated ultimate recovery per well and density of wells by county in the

Eagle Ford tight oil play, end-2014 1764.19 Correlation between oil and natural gas price movements in different

regional markets 1794.20 Natural gas prices and the share of non-hydro renewables in the US power

mix 1824.21 Change in cumulative oil production and average oil revenue per capita in

OPEC countries in the Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 184

4.22 Nigerian gross federal revenues versus Bonny Light oil price 1864.23 Change in household income in selected regions in the

Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario 1884.24 Share of the Middle East in inter-regional crude trade by scenario 1894.25 Change in cumulative global energy-related CO2 emissions in the

Low Oil Price Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 190

Figures for Chapter 5: Natural gas market outlook

5.1 World natural gas demand by scenario 1955.2 Top-five gas-consuming regions in the New Policies Scenario 198

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5.3 Change in natural gas demand by key sectors and regions in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 199

5.4 Global natural gas demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 2025.5 Natural gas production in Russia by key producing basins in the

New Policies Scenario 2075.6 Change in natural gas production in selected countries in the

New Policies Scenario 2115.7 Methane emissions from the oil and gas sector by region in the

New Policies Scenario 2135.8 Distribution of methane emissions from two studies of natural gas

production sites 2145.9 Global LNG liquefaction capacity additions 2195.10 LNG exports by region in the New Policies Scenario 2205.11 Indicative breakdown of current LNG cost components 2225.12 Overview of floating LNG projects under consideration, 2015 227

Figures for Chapter 6: Outlook for unconventional gas

6.1 Global natural gas production by type in the New Policies Scenario 2326.2 Unconventional gas production by key country in the New Policies Scenario 2346.3 Change in unconventional gas production in selected countries in the

New Policies Scenario 2356.4 Main unconventional gas resources in North America 2386.5 Shale gas production by play in the United States 2396.6 Drilling and completion time versus average length of horizontal lateral per

well in the Marcellus shale play 2406.7 Average estimated ultimate recovery per unit length of lateral section in the

Marcellus shale play 2416.8 Estimated ultimate recovery per unit length of lateral section and drilling

intensity in selected areas of the Marcellus shale play 2426.9 Dry gas and NGLs production for the main US shale plays 2436.10 Unconventional gas production by type in the United States in the

New Policies Scenario 2446.11 Natural gas balance in China in the New Policies Scenario 2456.12 Remaining technically recoverable unconventional gas resources in China

and selected countries 2466.13 Main unconventional gas resources in China 2476.14 Unconventional gas production in China by type in the New Policies Scenario 2496.15 Shale gas targets versus production to 2025 in China in the

New Policies Scenario 2506.16 Indicative range of unconventional gas production outcomes by type in China 255

Figures for Chapter 7: Coal market outlook

7.1 World coal demand and share of coal in world primary energy demand by scenario 270

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7.2 Change in coal demand by key region and decade in the New Policies Scenario 2727.3 Average OECD steam coal import prices and global coal trade by scenario 2747.4 Marginal FOB cash costs and market volume for global seaborne steam

coal trade by scenario, 2040 2767.5 Evolution of coal demand in key regions in the New Policies Scenario 2777.6 Coal demand by key sector and region in the New Policies Scenario 2797.7 Major net importers of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario 2837.8 Weighted average FOB cash costs and indicative cost range for steam coal

by key exporter 2867.9 Effect of oil price changes on FOB cash costs for global seaborne steam coal

trade, 2014 2897.10 Coal demand in China by coal type and key sector in the New Policies Scenario 2907.11 United States coal production by basin in the New Policies Scenario 2937.12 South Africa coal balance in the New Policies Scenario 2957.13 Southeast Asia coal balance in the New Policies Scenario 2967.14 Major net exporters of coal by type in the New Policies Scenario 297

Figures for Chapter 8: Power sector outlook

8.1 Electricity demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 3058.2 Share of electricity in total final consumption by region in the

New Policies Scenario 3068.3 Electricity demand shares by sector and selected region in the

New Policies Scenario 3088.4 Global installed capacity by source in the New Policies Scenario 3118.5 Global power generation capacity retirements and additions in the

New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 3148.6 Electricity generation by source and region in the New Policies Scenario,

1990-2040 3158.7 Power generation by fuel and demand by sector in selected regions 3188.8 Global cumulative investment in the power sector by type in the

New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 3208.9 Total power generation costs in the New Policies Scenario, 2020 3248.10 Total power generation costs in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 3258.11 Average electricity prices in the industry sector by region and component

in the New Policies Scenario 3278.12 Residential electricity prices and GDP per capita by selected regions in the

New Policies Scenario 3288.13 Global CO2 emissions by sector and electricity generation in the

New Policies Scenario 3298.14 Global coal capacity by technology, 2014 and 2040 3318.15 Electricity generation from existing and new coal-fired power plants by

selected regions 3338.16 Efficiencies of existing, new and average fleet of coal-fired power plants 3348.17 CO2 emissions from power generation by fuel in the New Policies Scenario 3358.18 CO2 emissions by fuel and coal technology in selected regions 336

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8.19 Average age of coal subcritical plants operating in 2040 and retirements over 2014-2040 337

8.20 Installed coal-fired power generation capacity in China by cooling technology in the New Policies Scenario 339

8.21 Installed coal-fired generation capacity by cooling technology and sub-catchment area in China in 2040 340

8.22 Impact of water stress on average Chinese location-specific generation cost for coal-fired power plants by cost component in the New Policies Scenario, 2040 341

Figures for Chapter 9: Renewable energy outlook

9.1 Share of modern renewables by sector in the New Policies Scenario, 2013 and 2040 349

9.2 Global renewables-based electricity generation by technology in the New Policies Scenario 350

9.3 Renewables-based electricity generation by region in the New Policies Scenario 351

9.4 Hydropower installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario 3529.5 Bioenergy installed power generation capacity by region in the

New Policies Scenario 3549.6 Wind power installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario 3569.7 Solar PV panel manufacturing capacity and production,

and capacity additions by region in the New Policies Scenario 3579.8 Solar PV installed capacity by region in the New Policies Scenario 3599.9 Solar PV capacity additions in European Union and

selected countries, 2007-2014 3609.10 Global heat demand provided by bioenergy and solar in the industry and

buildings sectors in the New Policies Scenario 3629.11 Biofuels consumption in road transport by fuel type and selected region in

the New Policies Scenario, 2013 and 2040 3649.12 Global CO2 emissions avoided by use of renewable energy technologies in

the New Policies Scenario 3659.13 Amount of aluminium, steel and concrete needed for global capacity additions

by technology and scenario, 2015-2040 3679.14 Average annual investment by technology and selected region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2015-2025 and 2026-2040 3699.15 Milestones on the road to competitiveness for renewables 3769.16 Curtailment of wind power output and corresponding impact on levelised

costs as a function of wind penetration 3779.17 Marginal economic value for wind power, solar PV and CSP in California at

increasing shares of annual electricity demand 3789.18 Competitive renewables-based electricity generation in the

New Policies Scenario 3799.19 Competitive non-hydro renewables generation worldwide in the

New Policies Scenario, 2014 and 2040 3809.20 Global subsidies to renewables-based electricity generation in the

New Policies Scenario, 2040 versus 2014 3839.21 Estimated subsidy rates for solar PV and wind in the


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9.22 Subsidies by technology in the New Policies Scenario 3849.23 Subsidies by region in the New Policies Scenario 385

Figures for Chapter 10: Energy efficiency outlook

10.1 Energy demand change and avoided energy demand from efficiency gains in selected sectors and regions 389

10.2 Extent of global mandatory efficiency regulation of final energy consumption by sector and region 394

10.3 Factors contributing to global primary energy savings by region in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario, 2040 397

10.4 Cost of conserved energy of the untapped global energy efficiency potential in the New Policies Scenario, 2030 399

10.5 Electricity demand growth and savings in buildings by equipment and region in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 402

10.6 Change in oil demand in road transport in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 404

10.7 Payback period associated with untapped energy efficiency potential in trucks in the New Policies Scenario, 2030 405

10.8 Reduction in energy intensity in aluminium production by contributing factor in the New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 407

10.9 World energy-related CO2 emissions abatement in the New Policies Scenario relative to the Current Policies Scenario 408

10.10 Average annual investment in energy efficiency by region in the New Policies Scenario 409

10.11 Components of resource efficiency 41110.12 Energy demand and CO2 emissions from the production of selected

energy-intensive materials in the New Policies Scenario and Material Efficiency Scenario 415

10.13 Change in energy demand in the Materials Efficiency Scenario relative to the New Policies Scenario, 2040 416

10.14 Global steel, aluminium, paper and plastic production by input material and scenario 418

Part B: INDIA ENERGY OUTLOOK

Figures for Chapter 11: Energy in India today

11.1 Per-capita energy consumption in India and selected regions 42911.2 Annual residential electricity consumption per capita by state in India

(for those with access), 2013 43011.3 Primary energy demand and GDP in India 43011.4 Primary energy demand in India by fuel 43111.5 Energy demand by fuel in selected end-use sectors in India 43211.6 Vehicle ownership in India and selected regions, 2013 43311.7 Total electricity generation in India by fuel 43511.8 Fossil-fuel production and demand per capita by selected countries, 2013 439

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11.9 Fossil-fuel balance in India 44111.10 GDP per capita and total GDP for selected countries, 1990 and 2013 44611.11 Composition of GDP and employment structure in India 44711.12 Main institutions in India with influence on energy policy 45011.13 Per-capita energy expenditure by location and income in India 45111.14 Diesel and gasoline prices and demand, 2002-2014 45211.15 Average cost of electricity and average revenue in India, 2010-2013 45411.16 Average annual particulate matter concentration in selected cities in India 45411.17 Carbon intensity of GDP and energy-related CO2 emissions per capita in

selected regions, 2013 45611.18 Energy supply investment by type, 2000-2013 45711.19 Power generation capacity by type of ownership in India 45811.20 Size of GDP and GDP growth by selected economies, 2013-2040 45911.21 GDP composition by sector in India, 2013 and 2040 460

Figures for Chapter 12: Outlook for India’s energy consumption

12.1 GDP and primary energy demand growth in India in the New Policies Scenario 464

12.2 India domestic energy balance, 2013 and 2040 46612.3 Change in coal demand by selected countries and regions in the

New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 46712.4 Change in oil demand by selected countries and regions in the

New Policies Scenario, 2014-2040 46712.5 Crude oil imports as a share of the trade deficit 46812.6 Primary energy mix in India and by selected regions in the

New Policies Scenario 47012.7 Energy demand by fuel in selected end-use sectors in India in the

New Policies Scenario 47112.8 Changes in energy consumption in the buildings sector in India in the

New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 47312.9 Primary fuel/technology used by households for cooking in the

New Policies Scenario 47512.10 Annual electricity consumption per rural and urban electrified household

in India, 2013 and 2040 47612.11 Average energy expenditure by fuel and household disposable income,

2013-2040 47712.12 Estimated current and projected industrial energy consumption by sector

in India in the New Policies Scenario 47812.13 Energy intensity of urea production in India 48212.14 Transport fuel demand by sector in India in the New Policies Scenario 48312.15 Road fuel demand for personal transport by type in India in the

New Policies Scenario, 2014 and 2040 48412.16 Transport fuel demand by type in the New Policies Scenario 48712.17 Energy demand for irrigation by source in India in the

New Policies Scenario 48912.18 Electricity demand by sector in India in the New Policies Scenario 491

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12.19 Population without access to electricity and electrification rate in India in the New Policies Scenario 493

12.20 Age profile of thermal capacity in India, end-2014 49612.21 Coal-fired power plant capacity by technology and average efficiency in India

in the New Policies Scenario 49712.22 Power generation by source in India in the New Policies Scenario 50012.23 Components of the delivered cost of an average unit of power in India

in the New Policies Scenario 50112.24 Share of total power generation costs versus share of generation in India

in the New Policies Scenario 50212.25 Network losses and reduction of losses in India and in an international

context in the New Policies Scenario 50312.26 Emissions of NOx, SOx and PM2.5 by sector, 2010 and 2040 504

Figures for Chapter 13: Outlook for India’s energy supply

13.1 Fossil-fuel trade balance in India in the New Policies Scenario 50813.2 Hard coal reserves by state in India 51013.3 Productivity evolution in the coal mining sector in India 51113.4 Coal production by type of mine and share of surface mines in India

in the New Policies Scenario 51213.5 Evolution of steam coal production by coal grade in India 51313.6 Indicative domestic mining cost curve, 2013 51613.7 Main coal-mining areas and coal infrastructure in India 51813.8 Coal imports by origin in India in the New Policies Scenario 51913.9 Indicative cost of coal delivered to northwest coastal India

in the New Policies Scenario, 2030 52113.10 Oil production by source in India in the New Policies Scenario 52413.11 Crude oil imports by origin in India in the New Policies Scenario 52713.12 Natural gas production in India in the New Policies Scenario 52813.13 Gas resources developed in India in the New Policies Scenario 52913.14 Natural gas imports in India in the New Policies Scenario 53113.15 Levelised costs of gas-fired versus coal-fired power in India, 2020 53213.16 Renewables-based power generation capacity in India in the

New Policies Scenario 53313.17 Levelised cost of electricity from wind, solar PV and the average cost of power

output in India in the New Policies Scenario 53413.18 Share of renewable energy capacity and generation in India, 2040 53613.19 Nuclear capacity additions by time period in India in the


Figures for Chapter 14: Implications of India’s energy development

14.1 Share of India in world energy consumption growth by fuel in the New Policies Scenario, 2013-2040 548

14.2 Estimated number of direct jobs in India’s energy supply sector in the New Policies Scenario 553

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14.3 Energy-related CO2 emissions by selected country and region in the New Policies Scenario 556

14.4 Installed coal-fired power generation capacity in India by cooling technology in the New Policies Scenario 558

14.5 Installed coal-fired generation capacity by cooling technology and sub-catchment area in selected regions of India, 2040 558

14.6 Value added in manufacturing in the Indian Vision Case compared with the New Policies Scenario 560

14.7 Optimal split by grid type to achieve universal access in selected regions in the Indian Vision Case by 2025 562

14.8 Change in fossil-fuel demand in the end-use sectors in the Indian Vision Case compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2040 563

14.9 Change in electricity demand in the end-use sectors in the Indian Vision Case compared with the New Policies Scenario, 2040 566

14.10 Average annual investment in energy efficiency by sector in the New Policies Scenario 570

14.11 Average annual investment in energy supply in India in the New Policies Scenario and the Indian Vision Case 572

14.12 Breakdown of cumulative energy supply investment by sector in selected countries in the New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 576

14.13 Average annual investment in the power sector in India in the New Policies Scenario 577

List of tables


Tables for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope

1.1 Greenhouse-gas emissions reduction goals in submitted INDCs for top-ten CO2 emitters 36

1.2 Real GDP growth assumptions by region 371.3 Population assumptions by region 411.4 CO2 price assumptions in selected countries and regions by scenario 421.5 Recent developments and key conditions for faster deployment of low-carbon

energy technologies 451.6 Fossil-fuel import prices by scenario 47

Tables for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040

2.1 World primary energy demand by fuel and scenario 572.2 World primary energy demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 692.3 Recent fossil-fuel subsidy reforms in selected countries 99

Tables for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook

3.1 Oil and total liquids demand by scenario 1143.2 Oil demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 119

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3.3 World oil demand by sector in the New Policies Scenario 1213.4 Remaining technically recoverable oil resources by type and region,

end-2014 1313.5 World oil supply by type in the New Policies Scenario 1343.6 Non-OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 1353.7 OPEC oil production in the New Policies Scenario 1383.8 World liquids demand in the New Policies Scenario 1433.9 Refining indicators by region in the New Policies Scenario 1443.10 Cumulative oil and gas supply investment by region in the

New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 149

Tables for Chapter 4: Low Oil Price Scenario

4.1 World primary energy demand by fuel in the Low Oil Price Scenario 1584.2 Oil demand by region in the Low Oil Price Scenario 1604.3 Oil production and liquids supply by source in the Low Oil Price Scenario 1654.4 Global oil and refinery indicators in the Low Oil Price Scenario

relative to the New Policies Scenario 1774.5 Fossil-fuel import prices in the Low Oil Price Scenario 180

Tables for Chapter 5: Natural gas market outlook

5.1 Natural gas demand by major region and scenario 1955.2 Natural gas demand by region in New Policies Scenario 1965.3 Remaining technically recoverable natural gas resources by type and region,

end-2014 2045.4 Natural gas production by region in the New Policies Scenario 2065.5 Natural gas net trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 2165.6 Major variables affecting the cost of new LNG liquefaction facilities 224

Tables for Chapter 6: Outlook for unconventional gas

6.1 Global unconventional gas production in the New Policies Scenario 233

Tables for Chapter 7: Coal market outlook

7.1 Coal demand, production and trade by scenario 2737.2 Coal demand by region in the New Policies Scenario 2787.3 Remaining recoverable coal resources, end-2013 2807.4 Coal production by region in the New Policies Scenario 2827.5 Coal trade by region in the New Policies Scenario 284

Tables for Chapter 8: Power sector outlook

8.1 Electricity demand by region and scenario 3078.2 World electricity generation by source and scenario 3108.3 Cumulative power plant capacity retirements by region and source in the

New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 3128.4 Cumulative gross power plant capacity additions by region and source in the

New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 313

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8.5 Cumulative investment in the power sector by region and type in the New Policies Scenario, 2015-2040 321

8.6 Coal capacity by technology, 2014 and 2040 331

Tables for Chapter 9: Renewable energy outlook

9.1 Targets driving renewables deployment in selected regions 3459.2 Top-ten solar PV manufacturers in 2014 3479.3 World renewables consumption by scenario 3489.4 Cumulative renewables gross capacity additions by region and type in the

New Policies Scenario 3709.5 Cumulative investments in renewables-based power plants by region and

type in the New Policies Scenario 3719.6 Relevant comparisons for evaluating competitiveness of renewable energy

technologies by scale and role played 3739.7 Main support mechanisms for renewable energy technologies in the power

sector by selected region 381

Tables for Chapter 10: Energy efficiency outlook

10.1 Selected energy efficiency policies announced or introduced in 2014 and 2015 391

10.2 Share of global final energy consumption by end-use and selected regions, 2014 393

10.3 Final energy consumption and CO2 emissions in buildings in the New Policies Scenario 400

10.4 Final energy consumption and CO2 emissions in transport in the New Policies Scenario 403

10.5 Final energy consumption and CO2 emissions in industry in the New Policies Scenario 406

10.6 Overview of material efficiency strategies in selected sectors in the Material Efficiency Scenario 413

10.7 Energy characteristics of energy-intensive industries, 2013 417


Tables for Chapter 11: Energy in India today

11.1 Number and share of people without access to electricity by state in India, 2013 437

11.2 Selected policy assumptions for India in the New Policies Scenario 462

Tables for Chapter 12: Outlook for India’s energy consumption

12.1 Primary energy demand by fuel in India in the New Policies Scenario 46512.2 Final energy consumption by sector in India in the New Policies Scenario 47112.3 Electricity demand by sector and generation in the New Policies Scenario 49212.4 Power generation capacity by type in India in the New Policies Scenario 499

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Tables for Chapter 13: Outlook for India’s energy supply

13.1 Energy production in India in the New Policies Scenario 50913.2 Oil resources by category in India, end-2014 52213.3 Natural gas resources by category in India, end-2014 52313.4 Oil product demand in India in the New Policies Scenario 52613.5 Oil balance in India in the New Policies Scenario 526

Tables for Chapter 14: Implications of India’s energy development

14.1 Breakdown of average household energy use in rural and urban areas in the New Policies Scenario 550

14.2 Selected energy indicators for India in the New Policies Scenario 55414.3 Investment in energy efficiency in the New Policies Scenario and the

Indian Vision Case, 2015-2040 56914.4 Investment in energy supply in the New Policies Scenario and the

Indian Vision Case, 2015-2040 573

List of boxes


Boxes for Chapter 1: Introduction and scope

1.1 Are economic growth and carbon emissions decoupling? 391.2 Run-up to an oil price fall 49

Boxes for Chapter 2: Global energy trends to 2040

2.1 China’s energy data in the balance 712.2 Power plant efficiency is critical 862.3 With great power comes great opportunity 1022.4 Energy efficiency and electricity access – the case of Ghana 104

Boxes for Chapter 3: Oil market outlook

3.1 Is there a downside for diesel? 1293.2 Oil and gas investment in a climate-constrained world 150

Boxes for Chapter 4: Low Oil Price Scenario

4.1 Are markets heading back to the 1980s? 1564.2 Do lower oil prices ease access to energy? 1634.3 Why invest when prices are low? 1674.4 How quickly can oil supply respond to prices? 1704.5 Sub-Saharan Africa in a low oil price world 185

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Boxes for Chapter 5: Natural gas market outlook

5.1 Iran: the wild card in international gas markets? 2085.2 Floating LNG: niche play or mainstream application? 227

Boxes for Chapter 6: Outlook for unconventional gas

6.1 Defining unconventional gas 2306.2 How do resource estimates affect our Outlook for unconventional gas? 2336.3 Seven “Golden Rules” for unconventional gas production 2576.4 Can innovation alleviate concerns about water contamination and use? 2606.5 Observed seismic activity in Canada’s Montney play 2636.6 What makes coalbed methane extraction different? 264

Boxes for Chapter 7: Coal market outlook

7.1 China, India and United States: taking stock 2727.2 Stranded capital or miners? 2757.3 Adapting to market conditions 2817.4 Impact of oil prices on coal supply 288

Boxes for Chapter 8: Power sector outlook

8.1 Decoupling emissions and economic growth in the Nordic region 3028.2 Modelling the impact of water stress on coal-fired power plants 338

Boxes for Chapter 9: Renewable energy outlook

9.1 Has the solar PV market in the European Union peaked? 3599.2 Aluminium, steel and concrete needs and associated CO2 emissions for the

deployment of renewables 3679.3 Changing value of variable renewables 377

Boxes for Chapter 10: Energy efficiency outlook

10.1 What is the impact of low oil prices on energy efficiency? 39710.2 Resource efficiency, energy efficiency and material efficiency – what is the

difference? 411


Boxes for Chapter 11: Energy in India today

11.1 Power fluctuations, from state to state 43411.2 Defining access to electricity 43811.3 India’s energy sector data 449

Boxes for Chapter 12: Outlook for India’s energy consumption

12.1 The coupling and decoupling of GDP and energy use in India 46412.2 India in a Low Oil Price Scenario 46812.3 What India builds is crucial to the future of energy use 47212.4 Transition towards cleaner cooking facilities in India 474

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12.5 India’s policies on energy efficiency in industry 48012.6 Smart cities – moving mobility back in time? 48512.7 A fleet to last a lifetime 496

Boxes for Chapter 13: Outlook for India’s energy supply

13.1 A 1.5 billion tonne question for the coal outlook 51413.2 Looking abroad: Indian overseas oil and gas investment 52513.3 Finding a natural gas price that is right for India 52913.4 Gujarat’s shining example 53513.5 How much land can India spare for biofuels? 541

Boxes for Chapter 14: Implications of India’s energy development

14.1 Employment gradually turning green in India’s energy sector 55214.2 Material efficiency in energy-intensive industries in India 56414.3 Five steps to improve India’s air quality 56714.4 Lighting efficiency on a grand scale 57114.5 The risk of a shortfall in power sector investment 574

List of spotlights


Recent key developments in energy and climate policy 35Four pillars to build success at COP21 58Can light oil tip the market balance? 145What would it take for China’s coal demand to fall? 291


India’s solar target: how high can you go? 498Can India bypass coal for solar- and wind-based electrification? 537What mix of technologies can achieve universal electricity access in India? 561

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