World Bank Policy Research

August-October 1992 Volume 3, Number 4

Privatization: Eight lessons of experience

Privatization is on the rise. More and even harder to sustain. Govern- overdue tariff increases and pay-than 8,500 state-owned enter- ments facing financial crisis often ment of past due bills. These

prises (SOEs) in over 80 countries try to improve performance by measures often have a positivehave been privatized in the past 12 bringing in new and dynamic effect. But as the crisis dissipates, soyears, 2,000 in countries that managers, and paying them incen- does political resolve.borrow from the World Bank - tive salaries. And they grant Political interference, a commonaccording to recent research by managers autonomy to set prices and deadly disease of SOEs, tendsBank economists Sunita Kikeri, and hire and fire - and agree to to re-emerge - and painfullyJohn Nellis, and Mary Shirley.

Not only is the pace of sales Count your blessingsaccelerating, the size and value ofdivested firms are also increasing. Privatization gains and losses*Close to 30 very large SOEs with a -10 0 o a, 40 6_0gross value of more than $19 billion Britain fDmstiHhave been sold in developing British Telecom E2 Foreigncountries in the past two years. National Freight LThousands of smaller enterprises British Airwaysare also on the sales block aroundthe world. Malaysia

It is hard to find a country Kelang Containerwithout a privatization program, or .min arla sector of activity not susceptible Systemto private management if not Sports Totoownership. Malaysia has sold its MexicoNational Lottery, Buenos Aires its Telmexzoo, Czechoslovakia the guest Aeromexicohouse of the Communist Party. Mexicana Airline

Ownership matters Chile 145

Why privatize? Because ownership Chile Telecom | -is a significant determinant of Enersisenterprise performance. In both Chilgenerdeveloped and developing coun-tries, good SOE performance has *AAnnual welfare gain as percentage of annual sales in last year beforebeen very difficult to bring about - privatization.

-/- . :', '-~,Contents on page 2

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Santiago Levy and Sweder vanWijnbergen on maize and the freetrade agreement between Mexico

Privatization: Eight lessons Books and the United Statesof experience

Historically Planned Economies: Stijn Claessens on the optimal cur-A Guide to the Data rency composition of external debt:

Theory and applications to Mexico

World Tables 1992 and BrazilNew Research

Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Steven

Services as a major source of Webb, and Giancarlo Corsettigrowth in the former Soviet states on household saving in developing

Policy and Research Series countries: First cross-countryEnterprise ownership and pollution evidence

Income security for old age mHousehold welfare effects of agri- Journalscultural policy reform in Malawi Discussion, Technical, and Related

Volume 6, Number 3 issue of the PapersPublic goods, private goods, and World Bank Economic Reviewsocial sector outcomes

Alex Cukierman, Steven Webb, andAnalysis of the results from the Bilin Neyapti on measuring theextensive survey of housing independence of central banks and Policy Research Working Papersindicators in 52 countries its effect on policy outcomes

Income distribution, fiscal policy, Yair Mundlak and Donald Larsonpolitical instability, and growth on the transmission of world

agricultural prices CalendarExplaining rapid growth: Chinesecoastal provinces and Mexican William Steel and Leila Webstermaquiladoras on how small enterprises in Ghana

have responded to adjustmentManagement of drought risksin rural areas Alex Cukierman and Nissan

Liviatan on the dynamics ofThe dynamic interrelationships optimal gradual stabilizationsbetween nutrition, morbidity, andlabor productivity in Rwanda Stephen O'Connell on uniform

commercial policy, illegal trade,and the real exchange rate:A theoretical analysis

The World BankPolicy Research Bulletin is publishedfive times a year by the Research Advisory Staff. Subscriptions to the Bulletinarecomplimentaryand may beordered by contacting Evelyn Alfaroat the Bank's main address, room S3-127. The Bulletin's purposeis to inform the development community of the Bank's policy and research output. It includes descriptions of Bank publications,research summaries, and updates of events in and outside the Bank. The views and interpretations in articles published are those ofthe authors and do not necessarily represent the views and policies of the World Bank or of its Executive Directors or the countriesthey represent. The Bulletin is not copyrighted, and it may be reproduced with the appropriate source attribution. For moreinformation, contact Evelyn Alfaro, the production manager. Alison Strong is the editor.

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-Continued from page 1 Most privatization success stories maximize price by selling into an

come from high-income and unregulated market.achieved SOE reforms tend to middle-income countries. Privatiza- 2. Regulation is critical to the success-backslide. SOEs thought to be well tion is easier to launch and more ful privatization of monopolies. In theon the road to recovery have either likely to produce positive results sale of Chile Telecom, everybodystopped improving performance or when the company operates in a won - consumers, labor, govern-suffered deterioration. In Korea, competitive market, and when the ment, buyers - and the productivewhere reform short of ownership country has a market-friendly efficiency of the company increasedchange ended losses in a group of policy environment and a good as a result of a well-developed,SOEs for three years in the mid- capacity to regulate. The poorer the well-administered regulatory1980s, large deficits have since country, the longer the odds against framework.reappeared. In New Zealand and privatization producing its antici- 3. Countries can benefit from privatiz-Japan, SOE reforms began to bite pated benefits, and the more ing management without privatizingonly when done in conjunction with difficult the process of preparing the ownership of assets. Managementprivatization. the terrain for sale. contracts, leases, and concessions

Recognition that SOE reforms are Nonetheless, successes can be have been successfully used thelimited and unsustainable, coupled found in low-income countries, too. world over, particularly in sectorswith the fiscal burden of subsidiz- Privatization turned around an where it is difficult to attract privateing loss-makers, has led financially almost moribund textile firm in investors. In C6te d'Ivoire, thehard-pressed governments to opt Niger, helped revive a defunct leased water company improvedfor privatization. development finance corporation in technical efficiency, increased new

Swaziland, and revitalized an agro- connections, became more efficientPrivatization works: The evidence industrial firm in Mozambique. The in billing and collection of receiv-Privatization - properly structured Mozambican firm diversified into ables - and reduced the number of- yields substantial and enduring new products, began servicing its expatriate employees by 70 percent.benefits. A detailed and rigorous debts, and increased production But because a change in ownershipBank examination of 12 fivefold. is usually needed to lock in perfor-privatizations in four countries The conclusion is straightfor- mance gains, private managementfound that divestiture was good for ward: privatization, when done arrangements are likely to workthe economy as a whole - and led right, works well. best when they are a step towardto higher productivity and faster full privatization.growth in all but one case (see How to do it right 4. The sale of large enterprises requireschart). The Chilean telephone There are eight key lessons. considerable preparation. Successfulcompany doubled its capacity in 1. Privatization works best when it's privatizations of large enterprisesthe four years after sale. The part of a larger program of reforms have entailed breaking them intoprivatized telephone company in promoting efficiency. Chile, Mexico, competitive and marketable unitsMexico reduced its per-unit labor New Zealand, and the United (in Argentina, east Germany, andcosts sharply. Kingdom are all successful Mexico), bringing in dynamic

Another study found that 41 privatizers. Their privatizations private sector managers (in manyfirms privatized by public offerings were accompanied by reforms to telecom and airline sales around thein 15 countries - Chile, Jamaica, open markets, remove price and world), settling past liabilities, andMexico, and Singapore among them exchange rate distortions, and shedding excess labor (in steel and- increased returns on sales, assets, encourage the development of the railways in Argentina). Successfuland equity, raised internal effi- private sector through free entry. privatizing governments alsociency, improved their capital Revenue maximization should not assiduously avoided large newstructure, and increased capital be the primary goal of privatiza- investments for plant modernizationexpenditures. They also expanded tion. Far better to eliminate mo- and equipment, since getting thetheir workforces by small margins. nopoly power and unleash poten- private sector to finance and managePrivatization often is accompanied tially competitive activities than to these investments was itself a majorby layoffs, but this is not always so boost the sales price by divesting reason for privatization.- jobs increased after privatization into protected markets. Also far 5. Transparency is critical for economicin divested firms in Chile, Mexico, better to create regulations to and political success. Mexico and thethe Philippines, and Tunisia. protect consumer welfare than to Philippines made the sale of

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enterprises transparent by adopting private sector through free entry, as Readingscompetitive bidding procedures, happened in Korea and appears to Sunita Kikeri, John Nellis, and Marydeveloping objective criteria for be happening in China. Shirley, Privatization: The Lessons ofExperience, Washington, DC: Worldselecting bids, and creating a clear Bank, 1992.focal point with minimal bureau- So... Matthew Bishop and John Kay, Doescracv to monitor the overall pro- Privatization is not a blanket Privatization Work? Lessons from the U.K.,

London: London Business School, 1988.gram. A lack of transparency can solution for the problems of poorly Attiat F. Ott and Keith Hartley, eds.,result in political backlash, as in the performing SOEs. It cannot in and of Privatization and Economic Efficiency: Aearly days of privatization in itself make up totally for lack of Comparative Analysis of Developed and

Developing Countries, Brookfield, VT:Poland, or even bring the process to competition, for weak capital mar- Edward Edgar, 1991.a halt, as in Guinea. kets, or for the absence of an appro- Cento Veljanovski, Privatization and

6. Governments must pay special priate regulatory framework. But Competition: A Market Prospectus,attention to developing a social safety where the market is basically com- London: Institute of Economic Affairs,net. In Tunisia, generous severance petitive, or when a modicum of John Vickers and G. Yarrow, Privatization:packages encouraged voluntary regulatory capacity is present, private An Economic Analysis, Cambridge: MITdepartures and reduced the need ownership yields substantial benefits. Press, 1988.for outright dismissals. In manycountries - most recently inEastern Europe and Central Asia- - i _.employee ownership schemes,unemployment benefits, andretraining-redeployment programs The research projects described here They have played a smaller role inare being developed to ease the have been approved by the Research the former Soviet states, which aresocial costs of privatization. Committee and are funded by the undergoing a general contraction in7. The formerly socialist economies Bank's Central Research Budget output and employment. Businessshould privatize in all possible ways (RSB). Bank units contribute their staff and consumer services are of particu-that encourage competition, and they time to these projects, and RSB funding lar interest, as they are an importantshould experiment with all available complements this by providing for factor in improving static andmethods that go beyond a case-by-case expenses such as consultants, data dynamic efficiency, enhancing theapproach to privatization. Since the collection, and travel. For information quality of life, generating jobs, andeconomic and social importance of on funding to prepare research propos- providing good opportunities for theSOEs is far greater there than in the als approved since May, see expansion of the private sector-rest of the world, flexibility is in page 9. through joint ventures as well asorder - not because privatization For information about research wholly owned domestic companies.is less necessary, but because it is projects listed here, contact the re- The purpose of this research is tomore so. Rampant institutional and searchers at the Bank's main address. estimate the potential contributionpolicy deficiencies require experi- of services to economic growth inmentation with a wide set of Research Starts the former Soviet states, by identi-privatization tactics. These include fying the gap between the expectedshare give-aways (or mass privatiza- Services as a M4aor Source and actual levels of service activi-tion schemes), state-assisted financ- of Growth in the Fonner Soviet ties there and by looking at theing methods, free or low-cost shares States growth in services in other socialistto employees in privatized firms, and Martha de Melo, William Easterly, countries in transition.new types of investment-manage- and Gur Ofer Drawing on international cross-

Country Economics Department,ment companies to run groups of Transition and Macro-Adjustment country, time-series data sets, thecompanies and diversify risk. Division research will first undertake a8. In changing the public-private mix Ref no. 677A43 comparative analysis of the impor-in any type of economy, privatization tance of services at different levelswill sometimes be less important than of development. Services will bethe emergence of new private business. Services have played an increas- measured by value added, employ-Countries can freeze or restrain the ingly strong role in developed ment, compensation of employees,expansion of public enterprises and market economies, reaching two- investment, and household con-encourage the growth of a dynamic thirds of GNP in some countries. sumption; proxy indicators and

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-GNP per capita will be used for the the effects of ownership on three finding that the environmentallevel of development. Services will basic determinants of environmen- performance of state-owned enter-be broken down into three tal damage: pollution intensity (or prises is superior to that of similarsubsectors: infrastructure services pollution per unit of output), scale private firms would indicate that(transport, housing, communica- of production, and location. particular attention should be givention), public services (health, Pollution intensity can vary to environmental regulation foreducation, public administration), widely even among plants produc- transitional enterprises.and business and consumer ser- ing identical goods because of RSB support: $39,950vices (all other services). Business differences in production technol- Staff weeks: 2and consumer services will receive ogy, waste treatment, and efficiencyparticular emphasis. of materials use. Scale is important Incone Security for Old Age

Historical data on services in the because environmental damage Estelle James

former USSR will be used to depends on total exposure. And Country Econonics Department,Public Sector Management

explore differences in the level of location can be important because and Private Sector Developmentservices among the former Soviet the potential for damage varies Divisionstates in recent years. This quantita- with absorptive capacity, popula- Ref. no. 677-45tive analysis will be complemented tion density, and the vulnerabilityby a qualitative analysis of the of the ecosystem.evolution of services - especially The project will survey plants in The proportion of elderly in thebusiness and consumer services - two environmentally important population is large and growing insince 1985 in the former Soviet sectors - pulp and chemicals - in many countries. This group, oftenstates and in other socialist coun- Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and poor, poses a huge fiscal burden fortries in transition. Thailand. The plants surveyed will industrial countries, and may soon

With a look toward the future, cover a wide range of vintages for developing countries, depend-the research will simulate the because of the important effect that ing on the policies they choose.potential contribution of services to the vintage of equipment has been Policies with regard to incomefuture value added, employment, found to have in determining security for old age can haveand household consumption, and plants' pollution levels. important implications for the laboridentify a policy agenda to facilitate The research will model the effect and capital markets, the growththe rapid expansion of services. of ownership on pollution in two potential and fiscal stability, evenRSB support: $40,000 stages. First, it will conduct a the family systems in developingStaff weeks: 40 regression-based analysis of countries. The problem of old-age

variance that analyzes the effect of security has been growing because

Enterprise Ownership ownership on variables likely to be of the demographic transition andand Pollution determinants of environmental the breakdown of close-knit familyDavid Wheeler performance: use of foreign aid structures and of traditional meansEnvironment Department, funds for investmento presence of of old-age support.Environmental Assessments ,and Programs Division expatriate managers and techni- This study is designed to help

Ref. no. 677-44 cians, relative market performance, countries reevaluate their old

- degree of export orientation, policies and formulate new policiespresence of input subsidies, and to provide income security for the

The rapid pace of privatization in degree of regulatory pressure. elderly. The study will first surveymany economies has raised an Second, it will analyze the com- the kinds of formal and informalimportant question for environ- bined effect of these variables on arrangements existing in bothmental policy: Do state-owned five proximate determinants of industrial and developing countries.enterprises pollute more or less pollution: scale, location, choice of It will look at how they work andthan facilities owned by domestic technology, mode of waste treat- what their effects are. It will exam-or foreign private interests? This ment, and efficiency of materials ine the problems that have arisen inresearch project will investigate use. these arrangements and presentthat issue through a rapid survey of The results will permit a detailed some alternative solutions to thesethe environmental performance of analysis of the conditions under problems.comparable plants in all three which privatization increases or The study will examine issuesownership classes. It will consider reduces industrial pollution. A related to the transition from

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informal to formal mechanisms for light on how structural adjustment Public Goods, Private Goods,handling savings, insurance, and and agricultural policy changes a Soia Setor Otomesredistribution in developing affect household welfare in the Jeffrey Hammer, Estelle James,countries. It will look at how formal short term. and Elizabeti Kingmechanisms should be introduced The research will look at how the Population and Human Resources

marketing in Department, Population, Health,so as to avoid crowding out infor- liberalization of grain marketing inNtton Piiion amal mechanisms. And it will Malawi in 1987 affected income Education and Employmentexamine differences between pay- distribution, food consumption, and Division; and Country Economicsas-you-go and fully or largely the welfare of economically vulner- Department, Public Sector

as-you-go ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~Management and Private Sectorfunded schemes, and difficulties in able groups. The distribution of the Development Divisionthe transition from the first to the costs and benefits of the reform will Ref. no. 677-47second. The study will examine be investigated through statisticalways of handling problems caused analysis of the determinants of twoby inflation and demographic classes of dependent variables: Many countries have experiencedchange, and perform simulations of household consumption, especially improvements in measures of thedifferent outcomes based on of food, and anthropometric health status and educationaldifferent demographic and eco- measures of children under six and attainments of their populations innomic assumptions. The study will of their mothers. The study will also recent decades. How much of thegive special attention to old-age investigate whether gender plays improvement can be attributed tosecurity systems in Eastern Europe any role in the effects of the policy economic growth alone, and howand the republics of the former change. much to policy measures? AndUSSR, looking at the kind of The research will be based on the among policy measures, what aresystems these states had under results of a survey of smallholders the relative effects of differentsocialism, how their transition to a in a rural district of Malawi. The interventions? Health and educa-market-based economy is affecting survey was undertaken in two tion expenditures sometimesthese programs, and how income rounds, in 1986-87 and 1990-91, that provide truly public goods or aresecurity programs affect the bracket the liberalization of grain directed at correcting standardtransition. marketing in the country. It gath- market failures, but sometimes they

Finally, the study will compare ered detailed information for a provide services that are basicallythe different programs' distribu- sample of 200 households on private.tional and insurance effects, their seasonal fluctuations in agricultural This research project is designedeffects on labor and capital mar- production, income, expenditures, to explore these issues by examin-kets, and their fiscal, informational, and time allocation for economi- ing, in a number of countries, theand regulatory requirements. The cally active household members; the relative effect of different policiesresults of the study will be used to structure, assets, and cropping that influence health status andproduce policy recommendations. patterns of each household; and educational attainment. The work-RSB support: $100,000 anthropometric measures and ing hypothesis of the research isStaff weeks: 100 morbidity of mothers and preschool that policies and services that

children. provide public goods and correct

Household Welfare Effects Food security has been relatively market failures will have a greaterof Agricultural Policy Reform good in Malawi in recent decades, effect on outcome indicators thanin Malawi but malnutrition is nevertheless those that primarily substitute for

Soy d e Bpartment, widespread, and purchasing power private goods. The research willPopulation andHuman Rir remains low. It is particularly collect panel data - time-seriesOperations Division important in a country such as this data by province or region - for a

Ref. no. 67746 to assess the distributional effects of variety of countries to test this

policy change on rural families and hypothesis.to identify the determinants of For the health sector, the analysis

Over the past decade many Sub- improvements in purchasing will explain infant mortality ratesSaharan African countries have power, food security, and nutri- (and mortality rates for the popula-undertaken policy reforms and tional status. tion as a whole, where data arestructural adjustment programs. RSB support: $87,000 available) by income, the propor-This research project seeks to shed Staff weeks: 2 tion of the population with safe

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-water, the proportion of the ing countries. The program has three global scale. Toward this end, thepopulation covered by basic main objectives: (1) to provide a project will narrow the large numberimmunizations, and available comprehensive policy-sensitive of indicators used in the surveys to ameasures of public curative care framework for monitoring the basic set of housing indicators thateffort. And it will note patterns in performance of the housing sector; could best characterize housing sectorthe types of policy that appear to (2) to illustrate the importance of good performance.make a difference to health in housing policies by providing new RSB support: $40,000different contexts. empirical information on the relations Staff weeks: 9

For the education sector, the between housing policies, housingresearch will, first, investigate how sector outcomes, and broader socio- Income Distribution, Fiscalthe allocation of public education economic outcomes; and (3) to initiate - Policy, Political Instability,resources among different levels new institutional relationships that and Growthaffects basic outcomes (such as will foster the adoption of improved Shanta Devarajan and Alberto Alesinaenrollment ratios and graduation strategies for formulating and imple- Public Economics Diaisionrates). Second, if data permit, the menting housing policy. Ref. no. 677-49study will analyze these outcomes Th-e program has conducted anseparately for different income extensive housing survey in a majorgroups to investigate the distribu- city of each of 52 countries, both This research project will investi-tional effects of different spending developing and industrial, and an gate theoretically and empirically,policies. Finally, the study will intensive survey in Hungary and the in a large sample of countries, thelook at the issue of shifting public Philippines. The extensive survey was relationships among incomeresources from one level to an- designed to provide an overview of distribution, the social demand forother. Are there tradeoffs between the performance of the housing sector redistributive fiscal policies, andspending on different levels and in each city, induding the afford- long-run economic growth. Theinputs, or do spending levels tend ability and quality of housing, underlying premise is that a veryto move independently? Have housing production and subsidies, unequal pretax distribution ofreductions in resources at one level and the workings of the regulatory income and wealth in a society willbeen matched by increases at other and institutional environment. lead to political pressure to redis-levels? If data permit, the study This research project will analyze tribute resources. This may havewill investigate whether less public the data collected in the extensive two consequences: first, socialspending at higher levels has survey in a comparative framework unrest and political instability, and,attracted more private spending with the goal of contributing impor- second, the adoption of redistribu-and permitted a larger allocation tant empirical information to govern- tive transfer programs.of public resources to lower levels, ments and to donor agencies engaged Both political instability andand what the effect of this public- in formulating and implementing redistributive taxation may haveprivate mix has been on educa- housing policy. The analysis will, first, negative consequences for savings,tional outcomes. establish key empirical relations capital accumulation, and growth.RSB support: $23,500 between levels of economic develop- Furthermore, the relations betweenStaff weeks: 9 ment and housing sector performance income distribution, political

and obtain descriptive normns for instability, and growth may vary at

t Analysis of the Results fromn housing sector performance and, different stages of development. Athe Extensive Survey of Hous- second, measure the effects of policies central element of the researching Indicators in 52 Countries on housing sector outcomes. The problem will be the jointnrStephen K. aUayo project will also identify typologies endogeneity of these three

lnfrastrucetre and Urtan that can be used to classify countries variables.lDevelopment Depa-rtment,Office of the Director according to aspects of their housing RSB support: $10,000

Ref. no. 677-48 sector profiles. These will permit Staff weeks: 6

analysts to group countries into typesrequiring different policy packages orinstruments.

The Housing Indicators Program The project also seeks to workwas created to provide a more solid toward the regular collection andbasis for housing policy in develop- publication of housing data on a

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narrative analvsis will be used to ment relief programs, and borrowingExplaining Rapi Growth describe and analyze firms' from local stores and money lenders.Chinese Coastal Provinces strategies with regard to product An important limitation of many

and Mexican Maquiladoras differentiation, the functioning of traditional risk management strate-Ashoka Mody and ArvindPanagariya the local labor and material inputs gies stems from the covariant natureIndustry and Energy Department, market, perceptions of firms on of drought risks - most householdsIndustry Development Division, the relative performance of within a region suffer lossesand Country Economics Depart- d n meso Tsment, Trade Policy Division different agglomeration econo- simultaneously. This reduces the

Ref. no. 677-50 mies, and the relative importance ability to pool risks within a region,- and effectiveness of different and makes traditional strategies

forms of international knowledge less effective and more costly.flows. Second, the data will be Formal credit and insurance institu-

A question of central interest to the used to estimate reduced-form tions can pool risks across large andWorld Bank's operational work and equations on the determinants of diversified portfolios and, in prin-policy advice is this: When does growth and investment (in equip- ciple, offer an efficient way ofeconomic growth become self- ment and training), explicitly overcoming covariance problemssustaining? That is, when does accounting for local agglomeration and reducing the cost of risk man-growth provide positive feedbacks effects as perceived by the firm agement. But such institutions areto generate continued growth? and the flow of international rarely well developed in drought-Much work has emphasized the knowledge in its various forms. prone regions of the developingimportance of providing firms with RSB support: $123,000 world.the right incentives and price Staff weeks: 28 This research project will seek tosignals to allow economically determine the latent demand forefficient decisions. Recent analysis Management of D improved credit and insurance forreminds us that investment in Management o Drogh better managing drought risks in

Risks in Rural Areas physical capital and knowledge- Peter Hazell and Harold Alderman regions in Burkina Faso and Southgenerating activities, inflows of Agriculture anda Rral India. Using household survey datahigh-quality international knowl- Development Department, from those regions for drought andedge, and self-sustaining agglom- Ailr Poliies Division nondrought years, it will try toeration effects have a powerful determine how much improvedimpact on growth. formal sector insurance and credit

Unlike most earlier studies of different types of rural householdsdeterminants of growth, which The droughts to which many would be willing to buy at full cost.have typically been conducted at agricultural regions in the devel- First, the study will examine theaggregate levels using national or oping world are periodically variation in the response of house-regional data, this research project subjected can have devastating holds to drought, focusing on thewill look at regional growth from effects on household incomes and types of risk management strategythe perspective of firms. It will use consumption, especially for the used by different types of household,the results of a firm-level survey to poor. To protect their consump- and the extent to which householdsmap agglomeration effects and tion against drought risks, rural are successful in buffering incomeflows of knowledge and identify households use a variety of risk and consumption losses duringthe leverage points at which these management strategies. These are droughts. Second, the study willlong-run drivers of growth can be mainly of two types: those in- model household decisions toinfluenced. The survey will cover tended primarily to reduce income measure the costs and benefits to360 firms in Southern China and 60 losses in drought years - such as household welfare of individual riskfirms in Northern Mexico, two of income diversification and sea- management strategies, and tothe fastest growing regions in the sonal migration for employment quantify their contribution to copingdeveloping world. The study will - and those that are essentially with drought. Finally, the study willalso use published regional data to coping devices designed to protect use the model to derive the latentconduct a more conventional consumption once income losses demand for improved credit andinvestigation. have been incurred - such as insurance instruments.

The survey data will be analyzed selling assets, drawing down food RSB support: $98,273using two forms of analysis. First, stocks, participating in govern- Staff weeks: 24

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The Dynamic Interrelationships food, additional health care facili- Publicationsbetzveen Nutrition, Morbidity,h ties, improvements in sanitation

and Labor Productivity in facilities and the quality of water,Rwanda and increased education of females. To order World Bank publications inMartin Ravallion RSB support: $38,500 the United States, send prepaid orders,Population and Human Resources Staff weeks: 20 plus $3.50 for shipping and hlaindlitng,Department, Poverty Analysis to World Bank Publications, P.O. Boxand Policy Division 7247-8619, Philadelphia, PA 19170-

Ref. no. 677-52 Research Proposals 8619, USA.

_ under Preparation World Bank publications are availablethrouglh a network of distributorsoutside the Unlited States. For the nameAgricultural Land Policies, Insecu- an.drs ftedsrbtri ~'u

A recurrent question in both rity of Property Rights, and Small country, write to the World Bankdevelopment theory and policy is Farm Productivity in Selected Puntites t, Deplfmenkthis: How much does nutritional Areas in Latin America and the Publications Sales Unit, Department

and halth tatu inflence abor Caribbean PR, 1818 H Street, NW, Washington,and health status influence labor Gershon Feder and David Steeds DC 20433.productivity - and thus income - Agriculture and Rural Developmentin developing economies? Answer- Department, Agricultural Policies Booksing this question convincingly Division, and Latin America and therequires isolating one link in a Caribbean, Technical Department, Historically Planned Economies:requires isolating one link in a Agriculture Divisionpotentially complex and dynamic Ref. no. 677-42 A Guide to the Datainterrelationship among nutritional RSB support: $11,000 Paul Marer, Janzos Arvay, John O'Connior,Martin Schrenk, and Daniel Swansonstatus, sickness, and productivity. Institutional Analysis and Struc- 260 pages/Order Stock #12147/$24.95Longitudinal data sets, based on tured Learning in the Water Supply As more governments with a legacyrepeated surveys of individuals Sector of central planning move towardover an extended period, offer one John Briscoe the market system, policymakersway of isolating such a link. Infrastructure and Urban Development and others increasingly want to

Department, Water and SanitationThis research project will address Division know how well these centrally

the question using longitudinal Ref. no. 677-54 planned economies have worked.data from Rwanda collected during RSB support: $15,000 This book is a critical guide to1982-83. First, it will quantify the Urbanization, Agricultural social and economic data oneffects of household incomes and Development, and Land Allocation historically planned economies. Itother socioeconomic characteristics Antonio Brandao shows how such data are gener-on the nutritional intake of children Agriculture and Rural Development ated, how these economies work,

Department, Agricultural Policiesand adults in a sample of house- Division and how moving to the marketholds. Second, it will model the Ref. no. 677-63 system affects the collection andinterrelationships between nutri- RSB support: $12,000 interpretation of data.tional intakes, anthropometric Comprehensive tables compare 17measures, and spells of morbidity historically planned economies to 35separately for children and adults other economies - both by countrywithin a system of dynamic simul- and by income group. These tablestaneous equations. And finally, it provide estimates of the performancewill examine the effects of nutrition, of historically planned economiesmorbidity, and the socioeconomic using such market-system indicatorsenvironment on the productivity of as per capita income and grossadults. domestic product.

The parameters that result from Researchers discuss economicthe modeling of the determinants of issues that are unique to historicallyadult productivity will be used in planned economies and examinesimulations to investigate the data adjustments and interpreta-effects of different policy options tions by national authorities andaffecting health and nutritional outside experts.status. Policy options wouldinclude provision of subsidized

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World Debt Tables 1992 Policy and Research Series 22- Adjustment Lending andWorld Bank Mobilization of Private and Public702 pages/Order Stock #44447/$35.95 Resources for Growth

21 - European Integration and Country Economics DepartmentThis eighth edition of the World Trade with the Developing World 109 pages/Order Stock #12208/$7.95Ta7bles provides up-to-dateeco- Gerhard Pohl and Piritta Sorsanomic, demographic, and social 95 pages/Order Stock #12204/$7.95 This third report on adjustment

data for 146 countries and territo- European economic integration is lending is organized aroundries. Like its predecessors, this proving to be good for most devel- systematic comparisons amongedition provides historical time oping countries. Overall, the three groups of countries: those thatseries based on the World Bank's creation of the European Commu- received a substantial amount ofongoing collection and analysis of nity has imparted a liberalizing adjustment lending during thedata on its member countries. Data trend to the trade policies of most of 1980s, those that received someare updated annually and focus on its members, by lowering tariffs and adjustment lending, and those thatnational accounts, international reducing nontariff barriers. The received no adjustment lending.transactions, and other develop- single market project, initiated in The report's analysis resulted inment indicators. 1985, will complete the process of several findings. First, adjustment

The 1992 edition presents annual market integration for most goods lending is usually associated with adata, organized by topic and by and services. recovery in growth rates. Second,country, covering 1970-90, and in This paper examines ways in adjustment lending is also associ-some cases 1991. The topical pages which the European Community's ated with improved policies. Third,report GNP, GDP, domestic trade partners, especially develop- the adjustment process generallysavings and investment, imports ing countries, have been affected by takes years, and there can beand exports, and other economic European integration. It reviews significant costs in the transition.indicators for countries, regions, past integration experiences, among Fourth, adjustment policies helpand income groups. The country which moves toward strengthened most of the poor, but recessionspages present, for most of the integration have generally been associated with adjustment oftenWorld Bank's members, data on accompanied by reductions in cause temporary declines in welfareGNP per capita, population, origin external trade barriers. And it for some of them. Fifth, privateand use of resources, domestic reviews recent integration plans, investment eventually recoversprices, manufacturing activity, which include the single market where policy conditions are good,monetary holdings, central govern- project and new agreements with but it remains a problem in low-ment finances, foreign trade, both Eastern and Western European income countries. And finally, therebalance of payments, and external countries. has been substantial overall publicdebt. In addition, the volume The paper discusses why market sector adjustment, but misallocationincludes a section on sources and unification will improve external of public sector resources remains amethods, a glossary of terms, and access, increase import demand, problem.general and country-specific notes. and raise EC incomes. It also Based on these findings, the

In devising its time series, the Bank examines why higher growth report makes several recommenda-uses methodologies and historical should check protectionist pres- tions for future Bank lending forfiles developed by other international sures within the European Commu- adjustment:organizations and adds information nity, what would have happened * Stay the course on macroeco-obtained directly from the countries without integration, and which nomic and pricing reform.themselves. Related data drawn from developing countries will benefit * Take a broad view of con-diverse sources are standardized most from East-West integration. straints on the private sector andusing methods and concepts appli- And it details conditions necessary increase attention to "secondcable to all countries. A semniannual for ensuring that developing generation" policies to support theupdate to World Tables is scheduled countries benefit from the EC's business environment.to be published in fall 1992 and is integration plans; these include * Increase attention to thesold separately. continued political stability in allocation of public sector spending.

Data from the World Tables are Eastern Europe and the republics of * Reinforce efforts to designalso available on magnetic tape and the former USSR, and a successful adjustment policy programs toon PC diskettes. conclusion of the Uruguay Round. promote poverty-reducing growth.

I10

Journals index of overall central bank tic demand and low-cost competingindependence contributes signifi- imports. Small-scale industries

The articles summarized in this cantly to explaining cross-country were forced to become moreJournals section appear in the Septem- variations in the rate of inflation. competitive to survive. Interviewsber issue of the World Bank Economic with owners of small firms revealedReview. Subscription to the Review is considerable entrepreneurialavailable without charge to readers On the Transmission of World initiative in changing product mixwith mailing addresses in countries Agricultural Prices and seeking newly opened marketYair Mundlak and Donald F. Larsonansekgnwlopedmrtthat are not members of the OECD but This article asks two questions niches. Sample entrepreneurs fellare members of the World Bank. Other about the relationship between into two broad groups: dynamic,subscription requests should be directed domestic prices and world prices of successful adapters with goodto the World Bank Publications Sales agricultural commodities: are prospects (found mostly amongUnit, Department PR, 1818 H Street, variations in world prices transmit- small-scale enterprises) and stag-NW, Washington, DC 20433. ted to domestic prices, and do these nant producers who had not

variations in world prices constitute adapted to the new competitive

World Bank Economic Review an important component of varia- environment (found mostly amongVolume 6, Number 3 tions in domestic prices? Domestic microenterprises). For potentiallySeptember 1992 prices are regressed on world prices dynamic small firms, the most

in various forms, taking into critical constraint was lack of accessaccount the possible effects of to finance for working capital andexchange rates and inflation. The new investment. Many micro-

Measuring the Independence empirical analysis is based on data entrepreneurs were seriouslyof Central Banks and Its Effect from the Food and Agriculture constrained by a lack of purchasingon Policy Outcomes Organization of the United Nations power among the lower-incomeAlex Cukiernian, Steven B. Webb, and BilinNeyapti for 58 countries for 1968-78 and for population and by saturation of theMaking the central bank an agency the countries of the European sector.with the mandate and reputation Community for 1961-85. The resultsfor maintaining price stability is a show that most of the variations in The Dynamics of Optimal Gradualmeans by which a government can world prices are transmitted and Stabilizationschoose the strength of its commit- that they constitute the dominant Alex Cukierman and Nissan Liviatanment to price stability. This article component in the variations of Inflation inertia may be quitedevelops four measure of central domestic prices. tenacious because of the simulta-bank independence and explores neous interaction between policytheir relation with inflation out- How Small Enterprises in Ghana actions and inflationary expecta-comes. An aggregate legal index is Have Responded to Adjustment tions under imperfect credibility.developed for four decades in 72 William F. Steel and Leila M. Webster This result is particularly relevantcountries. Three indicators of actual Monitoring of adjustment has for understanding some of theindependence are developed: the focused on larger, often state- failed efforts to stabilize inflation inrate of turnover of central bank owned enterprises, many of which South America. This article dealsgovernors, an index based on a have been adversely affected by the with the issue of inertia in thequestionnaire answered by special- more competitive environment. framework of imperfect informa-ists in 23 countries, and an aggrega- Little is known, however, about the tion about the type of thetion of the legal index and the rate impact of adjustment policies on policymaker and extends theof turnover. small firms. Firm-level data from existing models to an infinite

Legal independence is inversely Ghana show that the adjustment horizon. Because policymakers dorelated to inflation in industrial, but process was well under way across not have perfect control of inflation,not in developing, countries. In sectors and within firms and that a "frivolous stabilizer" may deviatedeveloping countries the actual new investment was taking place. from the policies of a "seriousfrequency of change of the chief The adjustment process had stabilizer" without necessarilyexecutive officer of the bank is a strained most firms' operations - being unmasked immediately.better proxy for central bank profits were squeezed between When the difference in the ability ofindependence. An inflation-based rising input costs and weak domes- "strong" and "weak" policymakers

*11

to control inflation is large, unex- therefore, should be to move of their debts. The low correlations'pected inflation may be persistently toward free trade. This would yield between the costs of borrowingsnegative for quite a while, thus large gains in efficiency. and export and import prices makecausing reduced economic activity The Free Trade Agreement the currency composition of debt aand giving the indication that provides an ideal opportunity to very imperfect hedging tool, and itcredibility is low. If the policy- pursue this objective. It will provide is likely that hedging instrumentsmaker persists with the stabiliza- freer entrance into the United States directly linked to prices are prefer-tion, this pattern gradually disap- for other agricultural products as able.pears as his reputation rises. But well as for a broad range of manu-before this final stage the serious factured products. Insuring secure Household Saving in Developingpolicymaker has to compromise his and sustained access for labor- Countries: First Cross-Countryinflation objective in view of intensive agricultural and manufac- Evidenceadverse expectations about his type tured products can help ease the Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, Steven B. Webb,

and pay the cost of imperfect impact on the labor market of a and Giancarlo Corsetticredibility. transition away from subsistence Although most studies have relied

on domestic or private sectormaize cultivation. saving data, this article uses house-

Uniformn Commercial Policy, Illegal hold data available from the U.N.Trade, and the Real Exchange Rate: The Optimal Currency Composi- System of National Accounts for aA Theoretical Analysis tion of External Debt: Theory and sample of 10 countries. HouseholdStephen A. O'Connell Applications to Mexico and Brazil saving functions are estimatedCountries on fixed exchange rates Stijn Claessens using combined time-series andsometimes use uniform tariff cum The changes in exchange rates, cross-country observations to testsubsidy (UTCS) schemes as a way interest rates, and commodity households' responses to incomeof achieving a real depreciation prices during the past decades have and growth, rates of return, mon-without disturbing the nominal had large impacts on developing etary wealth, foreign saving, andexchange rate. A potential draw- countries. Many developing demographic variables. The resultsback of this policy in relation to an countries have limited access to show that income and wealthacross-the-board devaluation is that already incomplete international variables affect saving strongly anda UTCS scheme provides incentives long-term hedging markets. Thus in ways consistent with standardfor illegal trade. Using an optimiz- the question arises whether the theories. Inflation and the interesting model with currency convert- currency composition of external rate do not show clear effects onibility and illegal trade, the author debt can be used to minimize saving, which is also consistentfinds that welfare is lower under a exposure to external price risk. with their theoretical ambiguity.UTCS scheme than under a corre- Using a utility-maximizing frame- Foreign saving and monetary assetssponding across-the-board devalua- work, this article shows that, by have strong negative effects ontion and that in some cases the real choosing the optimal currency household saving, which suggestsexchange rate actually appreciates composition, a country can indeed the importance of liquidity con-in response to an increase in the manage its external exposure. The straints and monetary wealth inUTCS rate. optimal, risk-minimnzing currency developing countries.

composition depends on therelation between export receipts

Maze and the Free Trade Agree- and the costs of borrowings in each

United States currency and on the relationsSantiago Levy and Sweder van Wijnbergen among the costs of borrowings inSetting the price of maize in rural different currencies. A simpleMexico above the world price is methodology can be used to deriveinefficient and likely to have the optimal shares of individualnegative distributional effects currencies and is applied to Mexicobecause many subsistence produc- and Brazil. The results show thaters, and all landless workers, are Mexico and Brazil could havenet buyers; in fact it screens out the lowered their external exposure to arelatively poor rather than the limited degree by continuouslyrelatively rich. The policy objective, altering the currency composition

12

Discussion, Technical, To make the most accurate predic- advice about implementing policiesand Related Papers tions, fertilizer specialists and others intended to make infrastructure

base their demand projections on a services more dependable in

Methodological Innovations broad range of methodologies and developing countries.

for the Collection and Analysis economic factors. This comprehen-of Statistical Data sive analysis covers recent political Trends in Agricultural Diversifica-Jean-Luc Dubois and econornic changes - especially tion: Regional PerspectivesSDA Working Paper 7 those in Easte Europe and ther s59 pages/Order Stock #11704/$6.95 Shawki Barghouti, Lisa Garbus, and DinaThis paper surveys the work done former USSR. Umali

The Industry Fertilizer Working World Bank Technical Paper 180by the French research group Group represents the varied interests 223 pages/Order Stock #12191/$11.95AMIRAe- Improvement of Investi- industr, teclmology, production, Agricultural diversification is fastgation Methods and Applied mdusting, teculogy, Because becoming a key strategy to promoteResearch for Development - from the Working Group takes all views agricultural development. Diversi-1975 to 1990. It examines new . . . fying can minimize productionstatistical investigation methodolo- fto account, itS regsonal and global risks, increase agricultural produc-gies and looks at how such innova- forecasts represent an obnectve tivity, and maintain or improvetions seek to provide a better farm incomes.understanding of the complex This publication presents thesocioeconomic conditions in Issues for Infrastructure results of studies on agriculturaldeveloping countries - especially Management in the 1990s diversification commissioned by thein Africa. The author describes new World Bank Discussion Paper 171 Bank's Agriculture and Ruralmethodologies that can measure the 112 pages/Order Stock #12193/$7.95 Development Department. It exam-impact of development programs Despite progress made by many ines diversification in a regionaland economic reforms under way governments in developing coun- context, highlighting those areas inin African countries. tries, most national infrastructures Southeast Asia that have achieved

The new methodologies focus on still provide unproductive, costly notable agricultural diversity.such topics as macro and micro services. But infrastructure services Some studies describe the statusperspectives, information needs can be greatly improved with of agricultural diversification andand survey objectives, and quanti- policies that make such services its potential in the rice-basedtative and qualitative approaches. more accountable to market de- systems of Southeast Asia, espe-They also provide designs for rapid mands. cially Indonesia, Malaysia, thesurveys, information systems, This paper analyzes policies that Philippines, and Thailand. Othersobservation units, decision levels, can make infrastructure services focus on ways to make agriculturaland social categorization. more efficient and reliable. The systems more flexible in Central

policies cover services for irrigation, America, Sub-Saharan Africa, SouthWorld and Regional Supply transport, telecommunications, America's Pacific rim countries, andand Demand Balances for Nitrogen, electric power, and water and the Middle East and North Africa.Phosphate, and Potash, sanitation. Technical, economic, institutional,1990191-1996197The World Bank/Food and Agriculture The report examines the potential and policy issues concerningOrganization of the United Nations/United role of competitive markets and the diversification are examined. TheseNations Industrial Development Organiza- private sector in providing infra- issues include the local adjustmenttion Industry Fertilizer Working Group structure services. It offers advice constraints farmers experience andWorld Bank Technical Paper 17653 pages/Order Stock #12163/$6.95 on how the private sector can the national policy responses toThis study forecasts regional and finance such operations, and on those constraints.global trends in the production and how governments can increase the The papers highlight a problemconsumption of fertilizer nutrients, productivity of services that must shared by each region: the limitedThe forecasts calculate the balance remain in the public sector. flexibility of agricultural systems inbetween supply and demand for Whether they are provided adjusting to economic, political, andnitrogen, phosphate, and potash publicly or privately, infrastructure technological change. Analystsworldwide. They also estimate the services in developing countries discuss how this keeps farmerspotential supply of fertilizer from must be reliable to meet the grow- from adjusting fully to new oppor-farms on a country-by-country ing needs of modern international tunities that could maximizebasis. trade. The author provides practical benefits and minimize risks.

1 3

Policy Research Working Papers Economic Incentives and Point Pesticide Externalities,Source Emissions: Choice Comparative Advantage,

Working Papers disseminate the of Modeling Platform and Commodity Trade: CottonRaymond J. Kopp in Andhra Pradesh, Indiafin-dings of wvork in progress and WPS920 * Contact Carlina Jones, room Nalin M. Kishorencourage the exchange of ideas among N10-063, tel. 202-473-7754. WPS928 * Contact Dawn Ballantyne,Bank staff and all others interested in room N10-023, tel. 202-473-8004.

development issues.Road Infrastructure and Economicdevelopment issues. Development: Some Diagnostic Managing Pollution ControlUnderstanding the Investment Indicators in Brazil: The Potential UseCycle in Adjustment Programs: Cesar Queiroz and Surhid Gautam of Taxes and Fines by Federal

WPS921 * Contact Marie Laygo, room and State GovernmentsEvidence from Reforming H3-131, tel. 202-473-1261. Antonio Estache and Kangbin ZhengEconomies WPS929 * Contact Antonio Estache,

Andres Solimano Central America at a Crossroads room E10-081, tel. 202-458-1442.WPS912 * Contact Emily Khine, room Sylvia Saborio and ConstantineNI 1-061, tel. 202-473-9361. Michalopoulos Participatory Development: Myths

WPS922 * Contact Maureen Colinet, and DilemmasThe Women's Development room H3-063, tel. 202-473-7044. Robert PicciottoProgram in Rajasthan: A Case WPS930 * Contact Ann Muhtasib, roomStudy in Group Formation F13-035, tel. 202-458-4569.for Women's Development Working Papers are NOT avail-

Maitreyi Das L B r able through the Publications How Much to Commit to anWPS913 D Contact Lynn Bennett, room er n Pa add Exchange Rate Rule: BalancingF5-009, tel. 202-458-2772. a; DepartmXe1st.VVP ease a ress u; : Credibility and Flexibility

requests for papers to the Alex Cukierman, Miguel A. Kiguel,Health Personnel Development contact person indicated and Nissan Liviatanin Sub-Saharan Africa at the Bank's main address. WPS931 * Contact Raquel Luz, room

J. Patrick Vaughan a N11-059, tel. 202-473-4303.WPS914 * Contact Otilia Nadora, roomS6-065, tel. 202-473-1091. Interest Rates, Official Lending,

and the Debt Crisis:Trade Policy and Exchange Rate A Reassessb entIssues in the Former Soviet Union Listening to Firms: How to Use Asli Demergnc-Kunt and Enrica

W. Max Corden Firm-Level Surveys to Assess DetragiacheWPS915 * Contact CECTP, room Constraints on Private Sector WPS932 o Contact Karin Waelti, roomN10-023, tel. 202-473-7947. Development N9-043, tel. 202-473-7664.

Andrew H. W. StoneMeasuring the Risk of Default WPS923 * Contact Priscilla Infante, Developing Country Capitalin Six Highly Indebted Countries room N9-059, tel. 202-473-7642. Structures and Emerging Stock

Marc Chesney and Jacques Morisset MarktWPS916 * Contact Sheilah King- How Reduced Demand for Children Asli Demirgs -KuntWatson, room S8-040, tel. 202-473-1047. and Access to Family Planning WPS933 a Contact Karin Waelti, room

Accelerated the Fertility Decline N9-043, tel. 202-473-7664.Creditor Country Regulations in Colombiaand Commercial Bank Lending Rafael Rof man Public Hospital Costs and Qualityto Developing Countries WPS924 * Contact Otilia Nadora, room in the Dominican Republic

Asli Demirgu-Kunt S6-065, tel. 202-473-1091. Maureen A. Lewis, Margaret B.WPS917 * Contact Karin Waelti, room Sulvetta, and Gerard M. LaForgiaN9-037, tel. 202-473-7664. A General-Equilibrium-Based WPS934 * Contact Patricia Trapani,

Social Policy Modelfor C6te room 17-183, tel. 202-473-1947.Tax Evasion and Tax Reform d'lvoirein a Low-income Economy: Ngee-Choon Chia, Sadek Wahba, The Precautionary DemandGeneral Equilibriunt Estimates and John Whalley for Commodity Stocksfor Madagascar WPS925 * Contact Audrey Cox, room Boum-long Choe

Jaime de Melo, David Roland-Holst, J2-264, tel. 202-473-4778. WPS935 * Contact Sarah Lipscomb,and Mona Haddad room S7-062, tel. 202-473-3718.WPS918 * Contact Dawn Ballantyne, Options for Reshaping the Railwayroom N1O-023, tel. 202-473-7947. Neil E. Moyer and Louis S. Thompson Taxation, Information

WPS926 * Contact Barbara Gregory, Asymmetries, and a Firm'sFiscal and Quasi-Fiscal Deficits, room S10-049, tel. 202-473-3744. Financiy g ChoicesNominal and Real: Measurement Andrew Lyonand Policy Issues General Equilibrium Effects WPS936 * Contact Carlina Jones, room

Roberto de Rezende Rocha and Fernando of Investment Incentives in Mexico N1O-063, tel. 202-473-7699.Saldanha Andrew Feltenstein and Anwar ShahWPS919 * Contact Lanha Ly, room WPS927 * Contact Carlina Jones, roomH9-071, tel. 202-473-7352. N10-063, tel. 202-473-7699.

14

How Soft is the Budget Constraint Strategies for Creating Transitional Regression Estimates of Per Capitafor Yugoslav Firms? Jobs during Structural Adjustment GDP Based on Purchasing Power

Evan Kraft and Milan Vodopivec Stephen L. Mangum, Garth L. ParitiesWPS937 * Contact CECSE, room Mangum, and Janine Bowen Sultan AhmadN6-045, tel. 202-473-7178. WPS947 * Contact PHREE, room WPS956 * Contact Elfrida O'Reilly-

S6-035, tel. 202-473-3680. Campbell, room S7-125, tel.Health, Government, and the Poor: 202-473-3707.The Case for the Private Sector Factors Affecting Private Financial

Nancy Birdsall and Estelle James Flows to Eastern Europe, 1989-91 Carbon Taxes, the GreenhouseWPS938 * Contact Soledad Rothschild, Mohua Mukherjee Effect, and Developing Countriesroom NI1-051, tel. 202-473-7460. WPS948 * Contact Robert Lynn, room Anwar Shah and Bjorn Larsen

H9-113, tel. 202-473-2169. WPS957 * Contact the WDR Office,How Macroeconomic Policies room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.Affect Project Performance in the The Impact of Formal FinanceSocial Sectors on the Rural Economy of India EC Bananarama 1992: The Sequel

Daniel Kaufmnann and Yan Wang Hans Binswaniger and Shahidur - The EC Commission ProposalWPS939 a Contact Daniel Kaufmann, Khandker Brent Borrell and Maw-Cheng Yangroom H2-041, tel. 202-473-7305. WPS949 * Contact Hans Binswanger, WPS958 * Contact Audrey Kitson-

room I4-049, tel. 202-473-1871. Walters, room S7-053, tel. 202-473-3712.Private Sector Approachesto Effective Family Planning Service: The New Focus in Interna- Waterborne Diseases in Peru

Karen G. Foreit tional Manufacturing and Trade Sheila Webb anid AssociatesWPS940 * Contact Otilia Nadora, room Hans Juirgen Peters WPS959 * Contact the WDR Office,S6-065, tel. 202-473-1091. WPS950 * Contact Arlene Elcock, room room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.

S1O-029, tel. 202-473-3743.Projecting the Demographic Impact Agricultural Pricing andof AIDS Piecemeal Trade Reform Environmental Degradation

Rodolfo A. Bulatao and Eduard Bos in Partially Liberalized Economies: Edward B. Barbier and Joanne C.WPS941 * Contact Otilia Nadora, room An Evaluation for Turkey BurgessS6-065, tel. 202-473-1091. Glenn W. Harrison, Thomas F. WPS960 * Contact the WDR Office,

Rutherford, and David G. Tarr room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.Efficient Environmental WPS951 * Contact Dawn Ballantyne,Regulation: Case Studies of Urban room NI 0-01 9, tel. 202-473-8004. Economic Development and theAir Pollution (Los Angeles, Mexico Environment: Conflict orCity, Cubatao, and Ankara) Unit Costs, Cost-Effectiveness, Complementarity?

Arik Levinson and Sudhir Shetty and Financing of Nutrition Wilfred BeckermanWPS942 * Contact the WDR Office, Interventions WPS961 * Contact the WDR Office,room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393. Susan Horton room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.

WPS952 * Contact Otilia Nadora, roomBurden-sharing among Official S6-065, tel. 202-473-1091. Do Markets Underprice Natural-and Private Creditors Resource Commodities?

Asli Demirgiiq-Kunt and Eduardo The "Pedigree" of IEC Conversion Margaret E. SladeFerndndez-Arias Factors for Per Capita GNP WPS962 * Contact the WDR Office,WPS943 * Contact Karin Waelti, room Computations for the World Bank's room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.N9-043, tel. 202-473-7664. Operational Guidelines and Atlas

Michael Hee Growth and Welfare Losses fromHow Public Sector Pay and WPS953 * Contact Estela Zanora, room Carbon Emissions Restrictions: AEmployment Affect Labor Markets: S7-136, tel. 202-473-3706. General Equilibrium Analysis forResearch Issues Egypt

Gail Stevenson How OECD Policies Affected Latin Charles R. Blitzer, R. S. Eckaus,WPS944 * Contact PHREE, room America in the 1980s Supriya Lahiri, and Alexander MeerausS6-035, tel. 202-473-3680. Chris Allen, David Currie, T. G. WPS963 * Contact the WDR Office,

Srinivasan, and David Vines room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.Managing the Civil Service: What WPS954 * Contact T. G. Srinivasan,LDCs Can Learn from Developed room S8-023, tel. 202-473-1288. Toxic Releases by Manufacturing:Country Reforms World Patterns and Trade Policies

Barbara Nunberg OECD Fiscal Policies Robert E. B. LucasWPS945 * Contact Priscilla Infante, and the Relative Prices WPS964 * Contact the WDR Office,room N9-059, tel. 202-473-7642. of Primary Commodities room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.

George Alogoskoufis and PanosRetraining Displaced Workers: Varangis Coping with the DisappointingWhat Can Developing Countries WPS955 * Contact Dawn Gustafson, Rates of Return on DevelopmentLearn from OECD Nations? room S7-047, tel. 202-473-3714. Projects That Affect the

Duane E. Leigh EnvironmentWPS946 * Contact PHREE, room William Ascher56-035, tel. 202-473-3680. WPS965 * Contact the WDR Office,

room T7-101, tel. 202-473-1393.

15

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November December East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017,tel. 212-297-5221]

1-5 - 28th American Water Resources 1-3 - International Conference onAssociation Conference and Sympo- Women and the Environment, High 11-12--Financial Institutions andsium on Managing Water Resources Institute for Public Health, Alexandria, Macroeconomic Instability in Historicalduring Global Change, Reno, Nevada Egypt [Contact: Samia Galal Saad, Perspective, Cambridge, Massachusetts[Contact: Raymond Herrmann, Water Department of Environmental Health, [Contact: Kirsten Davis, NationalResources, Cooperative Park Studies HIPH, 165 El-Horriya Avenue, Alexan- Bureau of Economic Research, 1050Unit, 233 Natural Resources, Colorado dria, Egypt, tel. 20-3-421-5575/6, fax Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge,State University, Fort Collins, CO 421-8436. MA 02138, tel. 617-868-3900]80523, tel. +1-303-491-7825, fax +1-303-491-22551 3-5 - Fourth Meeting of Global January 1993

Environment Facility Participants,2-6 - United Nations University Abidjan, C6te d'Ivoire [Contact: 19-23 - International RecyclingInternational Conference on Sustainable Nicholas van Praag, World Bank, 1818 Congress and Exhibition, Geneva,Environmental and Resource Manage- H Street, NW, room S5-035, Washing- Switzerland [Contact: Orgexpo, Boxment Futures for Sub-Saharan Africa, ton, DC 20433, tel. 202-473-5102] 112, CH-1218 Grand-Saconnex, Geneva,Accra, Ghana [Contact: Dr. Juha Uitto, Switzerland, tel. +41-022-798-1111, faxUnited Nations University, Toho- 5-11 -International Conference on +41-422-798-0100]Seimei Building, 15-1 Shibuya-2-chome, Nutrition, Rome [Contact: Food andTokyo 150, Japan, tel. +81 3 3499 2811, Agriculture Organization/WHO Joint Februaryfax +81 3 3499 2828] Secretariat for the ICN, Villa delle

Terme di Caracella, 0110, Rome, Italy, 23-25 - International Symposium on5-6 - World Bank conference, "How tel. 39-6-5797/3627] Air Pollution, Monterey, MexicoDo National Policies Affect Long-run [Contact: Sue Owen, ConferenceGrowth?" Washington, DC [Contact: 7-12 - Third African Population Secretariat, Wessex Institute of Technol-Rebecca Martin, World Bank, 1818 H Conference, Dakar, Senegal [Contact: ogy, Ashurst Lodge, Ashurst,Street, NW, room N 11-053, Washington, Mrs. Ofosu-Amaah, ICPD Secretariat, Southampton S04 2AA, U.K., tel. +44-DC 20433, tel. 202473-9065] United National Population Fund, 220 703-293-223, fax +44 703-292-853.

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