Document of

The World Bank

FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY

MICROFICHE COPY

Report No. 10252-JM Type: (PCR)MAUPRIVEZ,/ X31709 / T9 069/ OEDD3

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

JAMAICA

THIRD POWER PROJECT(LOAN 2188-JM)

APRIL 22, 1992

Infrastructure and Energy Operations DivisionCountry Department IIILatin American and the Caribbean Regional Office

This document has a restricted distribution sand may be used by recipients only in the performance oftheir offcial duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

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THE WOtLO SANK FMR OFCL ONLyWAshagton. O C 204 33

U.SA

O0we £VdhiINM

April 22,1992

HE14ORANDUM TO THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTORS AND TRe PRESIDENT

SUJECTs Project Complotion Report on JamaicaThird Power Proisct (Loan 2188-JM

Attached, for information. is a copy of a report entitled "P'rojectCompletion Report on Jamaica - Third Power Projoct (Loan 2188-JH)" prop-red bythe Latin American and the Caribbean Regional Offf4ice No audit of this projectha been made by the Operations Evaluation Department at this time.

.

Attachment

Thi.gdogsha, bsugdb;u Sd mayb e wadby mwpi ou th _ pim=eOf **0 okt dud@ ItSco""ow M osto dswn be dkei wtqa Wo"X Ink ancamad

FOR OMCIAL USE ONLY

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

THIRD POWER PROJECTlrIoan 2188-JM)

Tabl- of Contents

Page No.

Preface ..... ........................................ . i

Evaluation Sunary. . .. ii

PART I PROJECT REVIEW FROM BANK'S PERSPECTIVE

Protect Identitd l.. ..... 1Backaroound .... 1... 1

Proiect Obiectives and DescriPtion 1

Project Objectives... 1Program Descriptiona e cn... .... ...... 2

Project Descriptionnn..... ...... . .. 2

Project Desian and Oranization . ............. 3

Proiect Implementation .......... .. .... . 3

Loan Effectiveness and project Start-up. 3

Implementation Schedule . . .. 3

Project Costs... 3

Loan Allocation ........ .. ....... .... 4

Pro2ect Result .. ................... . . . .4

Proilct Obiectives... ... ........ .. .. . ..... 4

Physical Results ...... ..... ............ 4

Financial Performance ....... ..................... 4

Institutional Performance fo......... .. . ........... . 5

Internal Rate of Return ... . . .... ... 5

Proiect Sustainability . ...................... . . 5

Bank PerforMance ..... n ce.. . ..................... 5

Borrower Performance. ........... ... .. 6Proi-ct Relationshito...i........ ........ . 6

Consultina Services ............... . . .*.* ........... 7

Proict Documentation and Daata... 7

This document has a restricted distribution and may be used by recipients only in the performanceof their official duties. Its contents may not otherwise be disclosed without World Bank authorization.

Table of Contents (Continued)

Page No.

PART IS PROJECT REVIEW FROM BORROWERS PERSPECTIVE

Introduction . .........................................

Project Identification, Preparation and Appraisal ..... 9Implementation .. 13Operating Performance . .... 15Finance.al Performance ............. 16Management and Organizational Effectiveness . . 20Economic Re-evaluation .. 22Conclusion ............................................ 22Borrower c=mments on Part I and III . . 23

PART III STATISTICAL INFORMATION

Related Bank Loans . ... 25Project Timetable .................................... . 26Loan Disbursements .... 27Project implementation . . . .................... 28

Proiect Cost. and FinancinaProject Costs . . 29Project Financing . .................... 30

Proiect ResultsDirect Benefits .................................. 31Economic Impact ..... 32Financial Impact ........ . ....................... 33Studies .......................................... 34

Status of Covenants ......................... . 35

World Bank RecgurposStaff Inputs..................................... 36Missionsc......................................... 3

ANNEX

Financial Statments 1983-1988 ......................... ..... 38Financial Ratios 1983-1988 ........................ .... . 40

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

JAMAIC.A

THIRD POWER PROJECT(LOAN 2188-JM)

PREFACE

This Project Completion Report (PCR) is for the Third Power Project in Jamaica for whicha Loan (2188-JM) for an amount in various currencies equivalent to US$ 30.5 million was approvedon June 24, 1982. Tae Loan was made to Jamaica Public Service Company, Limited (JPS) with theguarantee of the Government of Jamaica and signeJ on July 27, 1982. The Loan became effectiveon February 28, 1983 and was closed on December 31, 1997, two years behind schedule. The Loanwas fully disbursed, except for US$160,398.82 million, which was canceled as of September 18, 1989.The last disbursement was on July 13, 1989.

Parts I and El[ of the PCR were prepared by the Infrastructure and Energy Division ofCountry Department II, the Latin America and the Caribbean Regional Office. These Parts werebased, inter alia, on the Staff Appraisal Report; the Loan and Guarantee Agreements; supervisionreports; correspondence between the Bank and the Borrower; internal Bank memoranda; and aProject Completion Report (Part II of the PCR) prepared by the Jamaica Public Services Company(fJPS).

The draft PCR was sent to the Borrower on March 28, 1991, and comments received on May27, 1991 have been incorporated into the report to the extent deemed appropriate. The lettercontaining JPS's comments is attached to Part II of this report.

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORTCMAI

THIRD POWER PROJECTILOAN 2188-3M)

Evalugtign Summarv

Introducti2a

1. In 1982, the unreliability of the public power supply was a seriousconstraint to economic recovery in Jamaica. JPS, the government-owned companyresponsible for the generation, transmission and distribution of powerthroughout Jamaica, was in poor financial condition and lacked sufficientskilled personnel. Although JPS had sufficient installed generating capacityto meet the system demand, it was unable to meet peak demand, because thecompany's generating plant needed rehabilitation and overhaul. Thesedeficiencies were attributed to lack of finance and adequately skilledpersonnel. The Government of Jamaica and JPS requested Bank assistance infiziancing a project to help overcome the difficulties being experienced in thepower sector (Part I, para. 2.01).

Obiectives

2. The principal project objectives were (a) the improvement of thequality of service, (b) the reduction of system losses; (c) the rehabilitationof power plants and the improvement of the thermal efficiency of these plants;(d) the extension and upgrading of transmission and distribution; and (-) thestrengthening of staff and management skills (Part I, para. 3.01).

Imolementation Exoerience

3. The project consisted of the 1982-84 investments portion of JPS's1982-85 investment program, excluding ongoing works. (Part I, para. 3.03).The project was originally scheduled for completion by December 31, 1984, butthis was too optimistic for this type of project. After initial delays incontracting, JPS's implementation performance was good. The project wascompleted in 1988 (Part I, para. 5.01-5.04).

Results

4. With the exception of reducing power losses, the principal projectobjectives were met. Efforts to reduce power losses met with limited success,and are being pursued further under the Fourth Power Project (Part I, para.6.01 and 6.02).

5. Plant reliability was restored and generating plant fuelconsumption reduced by about 30%, from 15,000 STU per kWh in 1982 to about11,616 BTU por kWh in 1987. Plant availability also improved and, at OldHarbour, improved from 30% in 1983 to 83% in 1988. GWh sales increased from1017 CWh in 1981 to 1,371 Ghw in 1988 an increase of 35% (Part I, para.6.02).

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6. JPSa financial psrformance improved significantly an a result ofhigher operating efficiency, tariff increasse and better financial management.In 1980 and 1981 there were operating losses, rates of return were negativeand internal cash generation was inadequate to fully meet debt service andsufficient maintenance, or to provide funds for capital spending. Currencydepreciation also increased costs. Between 1984 and 1987 operating profitswere restored, and rates of return ranged from 5.6% to 6.6%. Although the1984-87 rates of return were below the covenanted levels of 8% for 1984 and8.5% thereafter, the Bank accepted them in view of JPS's substantiallyimproving financial performance. In 1988, JPS met the initial 5% rate ofreturn under the Fourth Power Project. Intornal funding of capital spendingbetween 1983 and 1988 ranged from 20% to 100% (Part I, para. 6.03-6.04).

7. The project, through the training program, met with some success inimproving JPS's management and technical performance. However, there wasexcessive turnover of staff, and this diluted the benefits from these effort.(Part 1, para. 6.05).

SustainabilitY

8. It is expected that JPS's improved operating efficiency will resultin the project benefits being maintained. Operating efficiency will continueto be monitored by the Bank under the ongoing Fourth Power Project (Part I,para. 7.01).

Findings and Lessons Learned

9. The main findings and lea ons learned are as follows:

(i) Financial viability can be maintained if early action istaken to increase tariffs to compensate for Lncreasedcosts caused by currency depreciation.

(ii) Loss of qualified staff, through inadequate compensation,can dilute the effectiveness of training programs.

(iii) Where there are insufficient qualified local staff tocarry out timely procurement and construction steps,consultants should be engaged to avoid delayed projectbenefits (Part I, para. 8.03).

(iv) Project implementation and disbursements can be seriouslyaffected and delayed because of lack of sufficientlytrained personnel and the high turnover of personnelcaused by low salaries.

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORLJAMAICA

THIRD POWER PROJECT(LOAN 2188-JMI

PART I: PROJECT REVIEW FROM BANK'S PERSPECTIVE

1. Pro2ect Identity

Name t Third Power ProjectLoan Number : 2188-JMRVP Unit : LACCountry : JamaicaSector EnergySubsector : Power

2. Background

2.01 JPS, a government-owned power utility, is responsible for the

generation, transmission and distribution of electricity throughout Jamaica.In 1982, the unreliability of the public power supply was a serious constraintto economic recovery. Poor operational and maintenance practices resulted infrequent power outages. System energy losses were excessive. Although JPShad sufficient installed generating capacity to meet the system demand, it wasunable to meet peak demand because the generating plant needed rehabilitationand overhaul. These deficiencies were attributed to lack of finance andadequately skilled personnel. The Government of Jamaica and JPS requestedBank assistance in financing a project to help overcome the difficulties beingexperienced in the power sector.

2.02 The first Bank involvement in the power sector in Jamaica wasthrough a US$22 million loan to JPS in 1966 to help finance the cost of a

generating plant and associated transmission lines in the Greater Kingstonarea. This was followed by a second loan in 1978 of US$22 million to helpfinance urban transmission and distribution, as well as technical assistancefor the preparation of operating and maintenance procedures. Following theThird Power Project, which is the subject of this report, the Bank made afourth loan to the sector of US$18 million in 1987 to continue therehabilitation and institutional programs.

3. Proiect Obiectives and Description

3.01 Project Objectives: JPS's 1982-85 investment program was aimed atimproving the quality of service, reduclng system losses, meeting projecteddemand through rehabilitation of power plants, improving the efficiency ofthermal power plants, extending and upgrading the transmission anddistribution lines and str-ngthening staff and management *kill.

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3.02 Proaram Description: The planned 1982-85 investment programincludeds

(a) rehabilitation of four existing steam UAits at Old Harbor (206NW) and two steam units at Hunts Bay (84 MW), as well asoverhaul of three 20 MW gas turbines;

(b) improvements to the boiler foed water treatment systems atHunts Bay and Old Harbor;

(c) an expansion program for transmission lines and associatedsubstations, including about 25 miles of new kV lines and 6.25MVA of 69-kV transformer capacity;

(d) construction of a 25-mile, 6P-kV line between Annotto Bay andPort Antonio, reconductoring of about 105 miles of existing kVwood pole line, a new substation at Port Antonio and anextension of the Annotto Bay substation;

(e) expansion of distribution, including the addition orrehabilitation of 24-kV lines; 68 MVA of distributiontransformers; 60,000 meters; about 55,000 distributionextensions; 30 MVAR of capacitors and 2,500 street lights; and

(f) expansion of the existing supervisory control and automaticdata acquisition (SCADA) system, as well as the procurement ofabout 75 vehicles noedod for implementation of the program andoperation and maintenance of the system.

3.03 Prolect Description. The project consisted of the 1982-84 part ofthe 1982-1985 investment program, excluding ongoing works, and included thefollowing:

(a) rehabilitation of three of the four thermal units, totalling146 MV, and the improvements in the boiler feed watertreatment systems at Hunts Bay and Old Harbor power plants;

(b) construction of the 25-mile, 69-kV transmission lines fromAnnotto Bay to Port Antonio, with expansion of associatedsubstations and upgrading of about 53 circuit-miles of 69-kVwood pole lines;

(o) upgrading and extending of about 272 circuit-miles of 24-kVprimary distribution lines and related expansion substation,installation of 1S MVAR of capacLtors, 39,000 KwH meters, 47MVA of distribution transformers, 36,000 secondarydistribution extensive service, and 1,300 street lights;

(d) upgrading and extending the SCADA equipment and providing 50vehicles for operation and maintenance of the project; and

(e) consultant services to perform studies on long-rangegeneration expansion rehabilitation of thermal power plants ofold Harbor and Hunts Bay, financial planning, strengthen and

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improv- top- and middle-level power plant management, improvetransmLsion and dLitribution system operation andmaintenance, and train Borrower's personnel.

4. Proiect Deaign and Oroanization

4.01 The four-year construction program was prepared by JPS, with theaseLstance of consultants employed under the Second Power Project, and wasestimated to cost US$86 million. The firat three years that made up theproject were estimated to cost US$49.1 milllon, of whlch the Bank loan ofUS$30.5 milllon covered the forelgn exchange costs, .ncluding a front-end feeof US$0.5 million. However, the ongolng works for 1985 do not consist of allthe 1982-85 program, except the project, but excludes the 1982-84 ongolngworks. Taking into account JPS's poor flnancial position, the project wasdesLgned to keep construction lnvestment consLstent wlth adequate serviceduring the project execution period. Investment ln feeders was limited tothose glving the highest economic rate of return.

4.02 There was no additional generating capacity in the proposed programbecause JPS had sufficient installed capacity to moet projected loads.instead, the project provided for the rehabilitation of the existing thermalunits. Taking into account the urgent need to improve electricity service andthe financial constraints facing JPS, the project's concept and design wasappropriate and timely.

4.03 JPS was responsible for the implementation of the project, and wasassisted by consultants in the supervision of the power plant rehabilitation.

5. Project Imrlementation

S.01 Loan Effectiveness and Proiect Start-up: Loan effectiveness wasdelayed by about four months to February 28, 1983, until JPS producedsatisfactory financial plans for achieving a 5 rate of return in 1983.Delays in materials procurement and in contracting consulting services causeda 12-month implementation delay. Steps leading up to the award of contractswere carried out by JPS' staff, but JPS did not have sufficient qualifiedengineers to perform out this task well.

5.02 Imolementation Schedule: The project was originally scheduled tobe completed by December 31, 1984, but it was not completed until late 1988,when the substation and transmission works were completed. The originalimplementation schedule of about two and a half years to completion was toooptimistic. Generally, project implementation proceeded satisfactorily afterthe initial delays.

5.03 Proiect Costs: Final actual project costs were estimated atUS$41.1 million, compared to $49.1 million at appraisal. The difference wasmainly due to the devaluation of the Jamaican dollar, which resulted in lowerlocal costs, expressed in US dollars.

5.04 Loan Allocation: The original and actual disbursements by categoryare shown in Part III (Section 5(b)). Unallocated loan funds were mainly usedto finance additional distribution works.

6. Proiect Results

6.01 Project Obiectives: The project was successful in meeting the mainobjectives of improving the re-ability of the public electricity supply,improving the thermal efficiesr-. f the generating units, meeting the demandfor electricity, improving ma. -..ent and staff skills, and strengtheningJPS's finances (Part III, Section 6).

6.02 Physical Results: As a result of the rehabilitation of the steamunits at Old Harbor and Hunts Bay, fuel consumption was reduced by about 30%heat rate was 15,000 STU per kWh in 1982 (compared to 14,650 SAR figure) toabout 11,616 BTU per kWh in 1986 (compared to 13,500 SAR figure for 1985,latest date in which estimate was made). Plant availability also improved,and at Old Harbor improved from 30% in 1983 to 88% in 1988. GWh salesincreased from 1017 GWh in 1981 to 1371 GWh in 1988, an increase of 35%.However, sales growth rate during the period 1981-85 was very modest andincreased significantly thereafter. This is due to the fact that, after 1973and through 1980, the economy experienced a period of sustained contractionresulting from external shocks and domestic policies persued. From 1980 to1985 the economy had deteriorated significantly. As a consequence, demand forelectricity slowed down and remained somewhat stagnant. After 1985, theeconomy began to turn around, hence the high electricity sales growth rate.The average minutes of service lost per customer declined from 7,059 in 1982to 1,468 in 1988. The project was not successful in reducing the level oftotal losses to 15% (SAR target for 1985), as anticipated at appraisal, andthese total losses were reported at 19% in FY88 compared to 21% in 1981.Difficulty was encountered in fully identifying the causes of the losses.While the result achieved is below the 35% peak reached previously, thisfigure remains high. A first study to identify the causes for these highlooses was not very conclusive. It did point out, however, that more effortsshould be made to reduce consumer irregularities and theft, expand the voltagestandarization and upgrading of czerloaded circuits and improve measurement ofthe company's own consumption. Efforts are still continuing, and JPSa,ibmitted a loss reduction plan to the Bank under the Fourth Power Project,mr1A this is being closely monitored.

6.03 Financial Performance: SAR projected and actual financialstatements for 1983 to 1988 are given in Part III, Annex 1. In 1980 and 1981operating losses were sustained, rates of return were negative, and internalcash generation was Lnadequate to fully meet debt service and adequatemaintenance. There was no internal funding of capital spending. Receivableswere at a very high level.

6.04 Between 1983 and 1988, JPS's financial performance improvedsignificantly as a result of higher operating efficiency, tariff increases andbetter financial management. In FY86, JPS incurred an income tax liabilityfor the first time for several years. Between FY83 and FY87, operating incomewas restored, and rates of return ranged from 5.6% to 6.6%. These were lower

than the covenanted levels of 8% for 1984 and 8.5S thereafter, but the Bankwas reasonable in accepting them in view of JPS'r generally improvingfinancial performance. In FY88, JPS met the 5% rate of return covenantedunder the Fourth Power Project (Loan 2869 JAM). Internal funding of capitalspending between 1983 and 1988 ranged from 20% to 100% in 1987 and 1988 whencapital spending was relatively low compared to the increasing rate base. JPSwas successful in reducing its level of receivables from 75 days at the and ofFY81 to 46 days at the end of FY83. JPS coaled to require additionalgovernment contributions as a result of this improvement, thus reducing thesector's burden on fiscal resources. In addition, JPS current ratio improvedsignificantly from 1.0 in 1983 to 2.1 in 1988.

6.05 InstitutLonal Pgrformance: The Project met with some success inimproving JPS's management and technical performanco through the trainingprogram. JPS staff banefitted from the experience of working with consultantstemporarily engaged to occupy management positions. However, there wasexcessive loss of qualified technical staff which resulted in turnover ofengineering and technical staff, and this diluted the benefits from theseefforts.

6.06 While the Bank considers these institutional results andachievements are quite important for JPS as a whole, the Borrower tends togive more weight to the technical and physical results of the Project in itsconclusion in Part II page 21 and 22. However, the Borrower does declare thatJPS is in much better position in 1988 than 1983 (page 22 and 23).

6.07 Internal Rate of Return: Although lower than the 23% rate ofreturn estimated at appraisal for JPS's 1982-85 investment program, theestimated 13% rate of return for the 1982-88 investment program is good (PartfII, Section 6). The lower rate of return is explained mainly by (i)increased program costs, expressed in Jamaican dollars, as a result ofcurrency devaluations (not matched by comparable increases in the localcurrency prices of the benefit); (ii) initial delays in project start-up;(iii) longer implementation period (iv) lower than expected benefits from theloss reduction program and (v) lower fuel cost savings because of relativelylower fuel prices than expected.

7. Prolect Sustainabilitv

7.01 It is expected that, because of the improvements in JPS's operatingefficiency, the benefits under the project will bo maintained. To help securethis, a set of performance indicators was agreed with JPS under the FourthPower Project. JPS also agreed on the continuation of a comprehensive yearlymaintenance and spare parts stock program and the adeguate implementation ofsuch a program.

8. Bank Performance

8.01 There were eight Bank supervision missions over the eight yearimplementation period and this, while less than ideal, was adequate. Moresupervision effort was rightly made in the early stages of projectimplementation, when timely start-up was a problem.

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8.02 Without the support of the Bank, the standard of electricityservice in Jamaica would have deteriorated further from its poor level.Throughout the Third Power Project, the Bank missions played a positive roleby continually focusing attention on the measures being taken to improveperformanco standards, and encouraging appropriate actions. The help andsupport of the Dank was useful in securing tariff increases in 1984, and inthe changes made in the fuel adjustment clause to consumers so that fuel costincreases were fully recovered. Also, the Bank's persistence was helpful inachieving some modest improvements in the level of JPS's compensation. Thiswas essential to help retain qualified staff. These efforts are beingcontinued under the Fourth Powen Project.

8.03 The main lessons learned were as follows

(a) Financial viability can be maintained if early action is takento increase tariffs to compensate for increasing costs causedby currency depreciation.

(b) Loss of qualified staff, through inadequate compensation, candilute the effectiveness of training programs.

(c) Where there are insufficient local staff to carry out timelyprocurement and construction steps, consultants should beengaged to avoid delayed project benefits.

(d) Appraisal forecasts of the pace of implementation anddisbursement were too optimistic, particularly when the weaksituation of JPS is taken into account.

(e) Remedial actions should have been taken early, at appraisal,to address the problem of salaries adjustment in order to keepthe personnel and to avoid negating the benefits of thetraining program.

9. Borrower Performance

9.01 Generally, JPS performed well during project implementation. Therewere start-up delays in contracting, but these were due to a lack of qualifiedstaff. There were significant improvements in labor productivity because ofthe reduction in the number of employees, theft prevention, as well as areduction in staff levels and some improvements in labor relations.

10. Proicet Relationshios

10.01 A co-operative spirit was establisned early between the Bankmissions and JPS, and this was helpful in addressing problems related toprojoct implementation. Relationships between the Government and the Dankwere good.

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11. Consultina Services

11.01 Consultants had a significant role in the success of the Project.In line management consultants, provided by the technical assistance programplayed a significant role in the improvement of JPS performance. In addition,consultants assisted in the successful rehabilitation of the thermal plants.The provision of consulting services for operation and maintenance, and theprovision of a managing director and financial manager were especially helpfulin improving JPS's local management capability. Contractors and suppliersperformed satisfactorily.

12. Proiect Documentation and Rata

12.01 The project Loan Agreement was adequate for achieving the projectobjectives, especially in ftnance, and in assuring the appointment of keypersonnel. The appraisal report provided helpful reference throughout projectimplementation, and in the preparation of the Project Completion Report.JPS's completion report, also, provided useful data.

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PROJtCT COMPLETION REPORT

THIRD POWER PROJECT

PART II: PROJECT RZVIEW FROM THE BORROWER'S PRSRPEC TIVE.Y

A) 35P93

1.* ITRODUflI

Based on a Capital Investment Program developed by the JamaicaPublic Service Company Limited, for the period 1980-87, the International Bankfor Reconstruction and Development war approached to fund some of the vitalprojects to enable the upgrading and expansion of the electrical system tomeet the growing demand and improve on system rehabliltation.

On July 27, 1982 a loan agreement for United stat-z Thirty MillionFive Hundred Thousand Dollars (US$30.5 M) Loan No.2188-JAM was signed betweenthe World Bank and the Jamaica Public Service Company for funding the "IBRDThLrd Power Project." This loan became effective in February 1983.

The duration of the loan was initially to December 31, 1985 but thiswas extended to December 31, 1986 in September 1985 and further to December31, 1987 on November 25, 1986. This was necessary to allow full utilizationof the loan.

The loan provided for funding of projects aimed at catering forexpected load growth, allow for more efficient generation, provide re-enforcement of the transmission system, and assist in the reduction of energylosses throughout the system by standardizing ome of the primary distributionsystem voltage at 24 kV and installation of capacitors on the distributionsystem which also served to improve overall system power factor. Alsoincluded in the loan was provision for consulting services and training.

This Project Completion Report will provide information on theutilization and administration of the loan in the various performance areas.It forms a part of the requirements of the World Bank.

jj The Borrower prepared this text and Annexes as Part rI. The latter weredisregarded to avoid repetition with similar Annexes in Part rrr.Accordingly, the text was slightly amended to accommodate this.

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2 *DOJO IDTIXCXMXOM. PREPANAMXON AND APPRAIXA

2.1 SAa

The capital investment program covered the period 1980-87. Thisprogram outlined the necessary infrastructure expansion needed to meot thegrowing demand in the Electric Power Sector.

The World Bank, having successfully funded two earlier developmentprojects was approached for the continued funding of the investment plan, anda loan application dated March 27, 1981 was submitted to the Bank.

After meetings and discussions the projects constituting IBRD Loan2188-JAM Third Power Project was decided on.

The application for the loan included the following projects thatwere not included in the final loan agreement.

Transaissiogn

(i) Establishing the DUNCANS/B-llevue 138-kV transmissionline (26 miles).

substation:

(i) Expansion of the Duncans Substation 138-kV facilities;and.

(ii) Expansion of Bellevue Substation 138-kV facilities andinstallation of a 12.5 MVA 69/24-kV substation.

Project included under the Third Power Project that was notoriginally in the loan application document is:

Trulsdzzsiont

(i) Replacement, upgrading and reconducting of about 53miles of 69 ky-wood pole line.

2.2 Prenaration a Anpraisal

The Enginearing and Projects, Production and Finance Divisionsworked closely together to prepare Economic and Technical justifications forthe projects. Interim reports were passed to the Bank for evaluation andcomments.

The method of justification used was pro-design system planningfeasibility type studies. This involved simulation of various systemconfiguration by utilizing various computer applications programs andanalyzing the results.

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The project was initially met for completion by December 31, 1985.However, two *xtensions wer- granted in September 1985 and November 1986respectively for extension of the loan to a final completion dato of December31, 1987. One of the contributing factors to the delay was the fact that theloan agreement only came into effect in February 1983.

The preparation of the economic and technical justification was donesolely by the Jamaica Public Service Company and accepted by the Bank.Technical guidance was also provided in-house for the detailed design andimplementation stage.

2.3 Taroats and Goals

The project was aimed at improving the quality of electricityservice to the country by:

(1) Rehabilitating six electric power generating units.

(2) Improving the water treatment process at Old Harbor PowerStation.

(3) Constructing 25 miles of 69-kV transmission lines in orderto improve the standard of electricity service to theeastern end of the island.

(4) Rebuilding 53 miles of selected 69-kV wood pole transmissionlines.

(5) Improving the distribution system by:

(5.1) Upgrading Primary Distribution Voltages of chosenfeeders to the 24-kV standard.

(5.2) Installation of capacitors to improve system powerfactor.

(6) Trainlng, development and exposure of company staff intechnical and managerLal dLciplines beneficial to theorganlzation.

The overall goals were to:

(i) provlde capacity to meet the ever increasLng number ofcustomers and the increased demand in the commrcial,industrial and resLdential sectorsl

(Li) improve efficiency of operationse and

(iLi) enhance the viability of the company.

The project at the governmental level could be seen as creating avehicle for developing a stable and efficient electricity supply company,

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which would translate into a more productlve industrial sector by; (a)Lnstilling mo.e confidence in the commercial areas# and (b) assi*ting in thepromotion of trade, manufacturing and tourism whlch are of major importance tothe country's foreign exchange earnings.

A review of the forecasts made ln the Least Cost Expansion Studydone by extornal consultants showed that the forecast was low as the averagegrowth rate of 2 6% assumed was surpassed in years subsequent to the study.This is somewhat understandable as, at the tlme when the study was undertaken,the economy waa in an unpredictable state experiencing minimal or no growth incertain sectors.

2.4 Prolect Descri&tion

The project, at the time of loan approval, was comprised of thefollowing components:

A. Productions

(L) Rehabilitation of boilers and turbine generators for:

(a) Old Harbor Units 1, 2, and 3

(b) Hunts Bay Unit B6

(Li) Rehabilitation of Hunts Bay Gas Turbine No. 1 and No. 2; and

(iii) Improvements to the boiler feed water treatm nt systems atold Harbor and Hunts Say Power Stations.

. TransdMission and Substation:

(i) Construction of about 25 miles of 69-kV transmission linesfrom Annotto Bay to Port Antoniol

(t$) Installation of a 6.25 MVA, 69/24-kV transformer at PortAntonio and expansion of the Annotto Say Substation; and

(111) Replacement, upgrading and re-conductoring of the following69-kV Wood Pole Liness

(a) Roaring River/Rlo Buono(b) Bellovu-/Roaring River(c) Tollgate/Spur Tree

C. DfstrZiutLotn

(L) Upgrading to the 24-kV standard and extension of about 272circuit miles of distribution lines;

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(ii) The upgrading of associated substations; and

(iii) Addition of equipment and facilities:

(a) 1 MVAR of capacitors to the distribution system;

lb) 3900 kWh moters;

(c) 3600 secondary distribution extension services;

(d) 47 MVA of assorted distribution transformers; and

(e) 1,300 High Pressure Sodium Vapor Street lights.

D. GOeneral Prooertv:

(i) Acquisition of specialized vehicles for use in ElectricOperations and Maintenance.

(ii) Acquisition of equipment for the Energy Management System toaugment the existing Supervisory Control and Automatic DataAcquisition (SCADA) System.

Z. Technical Assistance and Trainina:

(1) To carry out a Long Range Generation Study (requiring about38 man-months of consultant services).

(2) Provision of the services of two power plant advisors andone Project Co-ordinator (requiring about 90 man-months ofconsultant services) for rehabilitation of thermal powerplants at Old Harbor and Hunts Day.

(3) To carry out financial planning study and assistance inimplementing recommendations (requiring about 36 man-monthsof consultant services).

(4) Transmission and distribution system operation andmonitoring (requiring about 50 man-months of consultantservices).

(5) Strengthening and improving the JPSC's Power PlantManagement and Operations including the provision of theservices of:

(i) one adviser to the Director - Production and TechnicalServices.

(Li) Training specialists in power plant maintenanco(requiring about 76 man-months of consultant services).

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(6) Training of JPSC's personnel in disciplines directly relatedto the Electric Power Utility. This took the form ofparticipation in both overseas and local courses.

3 * IfLUITATION

3.1 Stat Ug2

The project experienced start-up delays in part due to the loanagreement with the World Bank which was signed in July 1982 becoming effectiveFebruary 28, 1983.

3.2 Revision

Changes of significance were made in the area of training and PhaseII of the proposed Energy Management System which was eventually omitted fromthe program.

In March 1984, the Bank was provided with a revised trainingprogram, which was accepted by the Bank.

3.3 Ipgleseptation sch-dul-

Many of the projects were complected on schedule, however, timeoverruns were experienced on others.

3 4 Re2grtLag

The Bank was provided with progress reports on a quarterly basis.These reports conformed to the format stipulated by the Bank.

In all, twelve quarterly reports were submitted.

3 5 Procuraemut

The procurement procedures adopted conformed to the guidelines asstipulated by the Bank.

Materials for projects were obtained using international competitivebidding, limited international bidding, local competitive bidding and directpurchases.

The Bank was constantly given up-to-date information on method ofPurchase/Procurement being adopted and approval from the Bank was obtained onall aspects of procurement for Material, Equipment and Consultancy Services.

For Consultancy Services, Technical and Financial proposalssubmitted by firms were evaluated and selection made in consultation andagreement with the Dank.

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3.4 costs

At the time of preparation of thli Project Completion Report, acomparison of overall estimated and actual costs revealed the followings

Overruns in the categories of Transmission, Distribution and GeneralProperty.

However, the additional expenditures were funded from theunallocated category and reduction in other categories. Other categories werewithin reasonable levels of expenditure.

This indicates that in the areas of generation and substation,disbursements did not exceed the amounts originally allocated.

3.7 Financial Sources

In summary, the company shows a shortfall in working capital forthe years 1983-85 inclusive and a significant improvement for the years 1986-88.

In the 5-year period 1983-1987/88, the Company's gross internalfunding increased from J$89.1 million to J$267/8 million. Income beforeinterest charges moved from J$41.5 million to J$128.6 million. Thecontribution from depreciation increased from J$47.8 million to JS165.8million. Debt service requirements moved from J$94.3 million in 1983 toJ$120.6 million in 1987/88. Operating revenues rose from J$341.8 million toJ$907.6 million an increase of 165.5%, reflecting increases in rates, impactof devaluation and some increases in sales. Revenues from base rates moved upfrom JS173.8 million to J$393.2 million, an increase of 126.2%. Fuel Clauserevenues rose from J$166.9 million to J$512.2 million, an increase of 206.9%.In that 5-year period annual electricity sales rose from 1,172.0 GWh in 1983to 1,370.8 GWh in 1987/88, an increase of 16.96%. However, actual sales from1986/87 were 1,542 GWh, which covered a 15-month period.

With rates of return in the 5-7% range the company recordedsignificantly improved financial performance. Annual debt service coveragewas improved from 0.9 times in 1983 to 2.2 times in 1987/88. The debt equityratio ranged from 33/67 in 1983 to 39/61 in 1987/88. Customer accountsreceivable were reduced from 62.3 days to 46 days of revenue in 1987/88.

The forecasts at the time of loan appraisal were for revenues ofJS357.3 million in 1983 and J$450.4 million in 1985. Energy sales wereprojected at 1,081 GWh for 1983 and 1,126 for 1985. Actual results were wellahead of forecasts.

Operation and maintenance expenses increased from J$84.6 million in1983 to J$184.9 million in 1987/88, a rise of 118.5%. Expenditure on fuelrose from J$167.9 million in 1983 to JS427.7 million in 1987/88, an increaseof 154.7%, reflecting changes in oil prices and the impact of the devaluationsof the Jamaican Dollar.

- 15 -

Depreciatlon charges were JS47.8 million in 1983 and J$165.8 mlIlLonin 1987/88, an increase of 246.8%, reflectLng additlons to plant in serviceand revaluatlons of plant. Total operatLng expenses moved from JU303.3million in 1983 to J$779 million in 1987/88, an increase of 159.4%.

Income before lnterest charges was J$41.5 million in 1983 andJ$128.6 million in 1987/88, an increase of 209.9%. Not interest charged tooperations increased from JS41.3 million in 1983 to J$72.2 million ln 1986/87an increase of 74.8%. However, in 1987/88 not Lnterest charged to operationsdeclined to J$49.7 million, due maLnly to interest of J$25.8 million earned onbank deposits.

In 1986/87 the Company had an ineome tax lLability for the firsttime in several years. Incom tax liability of JS19.2 million was recorded in1986/87 and J$26.4 million in 1987/88. The origlnal forecasts through to 1985had not projected any income taxes.

3.8 P-rformance of Consultants, Contractors *sd uoliers:

Consultants were *ngaged in areas where local expertise was notavailable or was thought not to be adquately euipped to undertake specificsystem development studies, project designs, to impl eme nt speciflc training oreffect changes to the organization's structure.

Consultancy services were obtained in the following specific areas$System Expansion Study; Power Plant Rehabilitation, System Operations andMaintenance; Generation Management Assistance and 3ngineering of the AnnottoBay/Port Antonio 69-kv Steel Tower transmissicon line.

The services of the consultants were adequate to the needs of JPSCand the performance was generally good with the exception of one firm whosecontract was terminated in December 1984.

The performance of contractors and suppliers throughout the projectwas generally good.

4.0 OPDIZZ1Z P FlUC3

4.1 Performsance Indlcators

The key indicators of the Company's performance during 1983-87/88have recorded improvements in almost all areas. To some extent these reflectimprovements in the nation's economy. However, in the main they are theresults of measures taken by the Company to reorganize its operatlons, controlcosts, improve servlce to its customers and generally to achieve a tightlycontrolled and more efficient company.

4.'2 ikstlPnetaiom

Electricity sales grew to 1,172 aWh ln 1983 but later decllned in1984 and 1985 but rose in 1986/87 and were 1370.8 GWh in 1987/88, a net gain

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of 16.96% for the 5-year period. Sales to residential customers rose by 7.78%from 366 OWh to 394.5 GWh. Industrial and commercial customer sales moved upby 15.4% from 671-OWh in 1983 to 774.6-GWh in 1987/88. Th- system peak demandincroased from 254-MW in 1983 to 297.5-MW in 1988, a 5-year net increasc of17.1%. Net generation increased from 1,459 GWh in 1983 to 1,702.9 GWh in1987/88 a rime of 16.7%. The average number of customers increased from247,000 in 1983 to 271,300 in 1987 a rise of 9.7 percent.

4.3 Ifficikng2

In the period under review the Company reorganized its commercialand certain other operations. District offices were expanded and strengthenedand certain functions including billing, collections, customer contracts andcontacts were transferred from head office into the Districts. Certainservices including disconnections and reconnections of customers were placedwith contractors. At the power stations certain maintenance and cleaningfunctions were also placed with contractors. Electric Operations were re-organized as were the arrangements for maintenance of company vehicles. Inth- process the Company rationalized and reduced staff.

In 1983, there were 1954 permanent employees; by the end of March1988 the number of employees had been reduced to 1,604, a reduction of 17.9%.The number of customers per employee was increased from 126.4 in 1983 to 169in 1987/88, a 33.7% improvement. Electricity sales per employee also moved upby 50% from 0.6 GWh to 0.9 GWh in 1987/88. The average heat rate on thesystem war improved from 14,028/BTU/kWh in 1983 to 11,946/BTU/kWh in 1987/88.The improvement of 14.9% in the heat rate was achieved through the power plantrehabilitation program and the addition of the 40 MW slow speed barge-mounteddiesel plant at Rockfort. In the area of system losses, the position wasunchanged at the start and at the end of the period, 19.5% losses; although inthe intervening years there war minor improvement.

4.4 Overall Assessment

A direct result of the power plant rehabilitation was greateravailability of the company's generating plants. The Hunts Bay Steam Stationmoved from 78.9% to 86% availability in 1987/88. The Old Harbor Steam Plantsmoved from 30.4% in 1983 to an availability of 83% in 1987/88, the best in thehistory of the station. Gas turbines also showed improvement from 70.7% in1983 to 87% availability in 1987/88.

5 0 FINAN-1hL EURPORSE

In the five-year period 1983-1987/88 the operating and financialperformance of Jamaica Public Service Company improved significantly. At thestart of the 1980's the Company suffered frequent power outages due to poorplant maintenance and shortage of foreign exchange. A comprehensive powerplant rehabilitation program which was com nnced in 1981 and continued through1985 restored plant reliability. By the end of the program 11 generatingunits, steam, gas turbines and hydro-electric plants representing 345 MW hadbeen restored. The rehabilitation program resulted in significantimprovements in the reliability of service to customers in the efficiency of

- 17 -

the Company' system. Reserve plant capacity was also restored. The powerplant rehabliltatlon program was carrlod out at a cost of J$128.9 milllon.

In the four years prLor to 1983, the Company wam not coverlng itscosts and locecs for 1979-82 amounted to over J$100 million. A slgnificantpart of the looses was due to the Company's lnabillty to recover itsexpendltures on fuel through lt. fuel clause. In March 1983 the effleLoncyfactor in the fuel clause was changed from 13,500 8TU/kWh to 16,500 BTU/kWhand the company for that year recorded a break-even pocltlon, showlng a profltof J$140,000 compared wlth a loss of J$39.46 mllion ln 1982.

In the period under revlew, there were sharp devaluation of theJamalcan Dollar which moved from an exchange rate of J$1.788125 * US$1.00 onJanuary 1, 1983 to JS5.50 - US$1.00 on November 15, 1985. On January 10, 1983a dual (parallel market) exchange rate was Lntroduced through the Bank ofJamalca. By June 27, 1983 the rate had doclined to J$2.72 and had reachedJ$2.96 -US$1.00 ln November 1983. On 24th November 1983 the Jamalcan Dollarwas devalued to JS3.15 - US$1.00. At December 31, 1983 the exchange rate wasJS3.30 - US$1.00. By the end of 1984 the exchange rate had docllned to J$4.95- US$1.00. Further deterioration continued. The exchange rate peaked atJ$6.40 - US$1.00 in October 1985 but stabllized at J$5.50 - US$1.00 lnNovember 1985 and has remaLned at that level.

As a result of the sharp decllnes ln the exchange rate andconsequent rising costs, the Company was granted two lncreases in electrLcLtyrates - 40% ln January 1984 and 54% offectlve May 1, 1984. At the time of theJanuary 1?84 rate increase the fuel clause efficiency factor was changed from16,500 BTU/kWh to 14,800 BTU/kWh, and the cout of service adjustment of 1% permonth which had been a feature of the electricity tariffs for several yearswas removed. The rates which came into effect on May 1, 1984 are still inforce.

However, effective May 1986 a change was made in the Company's fuelclause to allow a two-tier level of fuel cost recovery. The fuel clauseadjustment applicable to electricity supplied to Residential (Rate 10)customers li based on the current cost of fuel. In March 1988 the adjustmentwas 22.3 cents (Jamaica) per kilowatt/hour. In regard to commerclal,industrial and other customers (includlng Government entLtiLe) the fueladjustment ls based on the cost of fuel ln October 1985. The fuel clauseadjustment for those customers has been fixed at 40.83 cents (Jamalcan) perkilowatt/hour. The addltional charge. by the Company made to commercial,industrial and other customers over and above the cost of fuel and reasonableprovisions for bad debt, are paid over by the Company to Government, and usedto subridy the cost of som bamic food items. The Company's basic electricitytariffs provide for very minor fuel cost recovery, 0.41 cents perkllowatt/hour. The balance of the fuel clause are recovered through the fuelclause, whlch account for more than one-half of the Company's revenues.

Set out below are comments on the historical financial performanceof the Company: income and expense, balance sheots, source and application offunds and performance indicators. In 1986 the Company decided to change itsfinancial year-end from December 31 to March 31 in order to fit in with

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Governmnat's financial year. Accordingly, the pOrLod covered in this reviewis January 1, 1983 to March 31, 1988.

5.1 r _l u

During 1983-1987/88 the Company' operating revenues rose fromJ5341.8 million to JS907.6 mllion, an Lncrease of 165.5%, roflectingincreases La rates, impact of devaluatlon and some increases in sales.Revenues from bass rates moved up from. J173.8 mllion to JS393.2 million, anincrease of 126.2t. Fuel clause revenues rose from JS166.9 million to JS512.2million, an Lncrease of 206.9%. in that 5-year period annual electrlcitysales rose from 1172.0 GWh ln 1983 to 1370.8 OWh in 1987/88, an increase of16.96%. However, actual sales for 1986/87 woro 1,542 GNh, which covered a 15-month period.

The forecasts at the time of loan appraisal were for revenues ofJS357.3 milllon in 1983 and JS450.4 million ln 1985. Energy sales wereprojected at 1,071 Glh tor 1983 and 1,126 for 1985. Actual results were wellahead of forecasts.

Operation and maintenance expenses Lncreased from JS84.6 millionin 1983 to J5184.9 million in 1987/88, a rise of 118.5%. Zxpenditure on fuelrose from J$167.9 million in 1983 to JS427.7 million in 1981/88, an increaseof 154.7%, reflecting changes in oil prices and the impact of the devaluationsof the Jamaican Dollar.

Depreciation charges were JS47.8 million in 1983 and JS1165.8million in 1987/88, an increase of 246.8%, reflecting additlons to plantservice and revaluations of plant. Total operating expenses moved fromJ.300.3 mllion in 1983 to JS779 million in 1987/88, an increase of 159.4%.

Incom before interest charges was JS41.5 million in 1983 andJS128.6 mllion in 1987/88, an increase of 209.9%. Net interest charged tooperations increased from JS41.3 million in 1983 to JS72.2 million ln 1986/87an increase of 74.8%. However, in 1987/88 net interest charged to operationsdeclined to JS49.7 million, due mainly to Lnterest of JS25.8 million earned onbank deposits.

in 1986/87 the Company had an inome tax liabLilty for the fLrsttime in several years. Incom tax liability of JS19.2 million was recorded in1986/87 and JS26.4 mllion in 1987/88. The original forecasts through to 1985had not projected any Lncome taxes.

5.2 alance Sheets 1983 - 1987188

In the 5-year period gross plant in service rose from JS1,909.5mllion ln 1983 to J$4,581.2 million in 1987/88. Not plant in service movedup from JS929.5 million to J$2,050.4 million. Accumulated depreciationincreasd from JS980 million in 1983 to JS2,530.8 million in 1987/88. Netfixed assets rose from JS1,029.1 million to J52,171.9 million. Net assetsrose from JS1,160.3 million in 1983 to J.2,601.4 million in 1987/88, anincrease of 124.2%.

- 19 -

current assets improved significantly durlng the 5-year perLod fromJ$129.5 mllion ln 1983 to J$427.7 mLilLon ln 1987/88. Customer accountsreceLvable of J$84.3 mllion represented the maln component ln 1983 and wereJ$151.3 million ln 1987/88. Cash and bank deposLts rose from J$2.6 mllion ln1983 to J$198.5 mllion ln 1987/88. InventorLes rose from J$37.9 milllon toJ$70.2 milllon.

In the same perlod current llabilltles moved up from J$147.6 mllionto J$207.4 milllon. Accounts payable remained the main component moving fromJ$69.6 mllion to J$146.5 million ln 1985 and declinlng to J$130.2 mllion ln1987/88. Demand loans and overdrafts whlch stood at J$32.8 milllon ln 1983were ellminated by 1986/87 but were J$11.7 million ln 1987/88. Interestpayable, mainly on overseas loans, Lncreased from J$45.2 mllion ln 1983 toJ$96.7 million ln 1986/87 but declined to J$57 million in 1987/88. in 1983current liabilLtles oxceeded current assets but that situation was reversed ln1984 and since then the posLtLon has contlnued to lmprove.

The Company's equity recorded signlflcant increase movlng fromJ$657.3 million ln 1983 to J$1,381.2 million ln 1987/68. PaLd-up sharecapital was increased from J$100.9 milllon to JS168.4 milllon. RetalnedearnLngs rose from J$30 milllon ln 1983 to J$380.3 mllion ln 1987/88.Capital reserves, derlved from revaluation of flxed assets, were Lncreasedfrom J$526.4 milllon (1983) to J$832.5 million (1987/88). Capltal reserves,derLved from revaluatlon of flxed assets, were increased from J$526.4 milllon(1983) to J$832.5 million (1987/88). Through a program of applicatlon of itspollcies regarding customer deposLts, the Company lncreased thli source offundlng from J$15 mllion ln 1983 to JS46.6 mllion ln 1987/88.

Long-term debt whlch stood at J$336.2 million in 1983 had increasedto J$941.2 milllon in 1987/88. A slgnlficant part of the lncrease wcs due tothe impact of devaluatlons of the Jamalcan Dollar durlng the years 1983 to1985.

During the porlod under review the Company achlived a much strongerfinancial posLtion. The cash posLtLon was considerably better, receivables asa percentage of revenues were much lower, the current assets ratlo was hlgh,the pald-up equity had been increased and retaLned earnlngs were up by J$350milllon.

5.3 Rate of eturn

During 1983 to 1987/88 the rate of return has remalned falrly stableas shown below:

1983 - 5.6%1984 - 6.6%1985 - 5.3%1986/87 - 7.1%1987/88 - 6.4%

Wlth rate of return ln the 5-7% range the Company recordedsignlfLcantly improved flnancial performance. Annual debt service coverage

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was improved from 0.9 times in 1983 to 2.2 times in 1987/88. The dobt quityratio ranged from 33/67 ln 1983 to 39/61 ln 1987/88. Customer accountsrecolvable were reduced from 62.3 days ln 1983 to 46 days of revenue ln1987/88.

6.0 alD XZAX zmcrxSVss

At the present time the Jamaica Public ServLce Company manag me ntstructure La headed by an ExecutLve ChaLrman and Chlef ExecutLve OffLcer withDepartments of Public Relations, Internal Audlt, Legal, Director of DLitrLctsand Speclal Projects reportlng to him along with the Managing DLrector.Reportlng to the Managing Dlrector aro the followlng Divlslons: Flnance,Productlons, EngLneering and Projects, Controller, Human Resource Developmentand IndustrLal RelatLons and Systems and Support Servlces.

over the perlod major changes have taken place in the DistrlctsDivisLon and the Dlvision of System and Support Services was establlihed.

A major Management Audit was undertaken by a local firm andresultLng from the exercise was a standardlzatLon and reclassificatlon ofManagement grades. The internal reorganLzation of existLng departments alongwith re-establilhing some departments were conducted to establish the DLvLiLonof Systems and Support Servlces.

The management structure of the dLitrLcts was strengthened with theestabliahment of posLtLon of Operations Managers/SuperLntendents andCommerclal Managers/Superirt-ndents. Also the posltlons of District Engineerand later Maintenance Engineer were establlshed.

The structure was further strengthened wlth the establishment of twoReglonal Managers in the District Dlvllson. These posLtLons became part ofthe Senlor Management team.

The Systems and Support Servlces also experlenced changes ln ltsorganizatLon structure with the most significant belng the re-establlshment ofthe Transport Admlnlitratlon Group whlch was set up to deal wlth themalntenance of the Speclalized VehLcles supplied under the project andadmLnLstration of the transport system for company's vehicles on a generalbasLs.

The data center has also been expanded and li at present providlnggood support servlce to the commerclal aspects of the Company's operatLon.

A Management Informatlon and Inventory Control System has also beenestablished, lt li lntended that this wlll provlde the vehicle for thecomputerizatlon of the stores functlons company-wide and to provider more up-to-date and relevant lnformatlon to enable optimization ln the area ofInventory Control .

The improvements to physLcal plant and development of humanresources through implementatLon of the traLinng programs coupled wlth thedynamic organizational changes have resulted ln the company being more

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economically viablo and have provided a moral booster for the over 1600employees.

6.2 Growth

Over th3 period, the Jamaica Public Service Company has experienced

a reduction in its number of employees. It has also experienced an increasein the number of customeru, hence its Customer to employee ratio has movedfrom 126.4 in 1983 to 158.7 in 1987.

With the decentralization of the District Operations, there has beenthe establishment of other district and collections offices at strategiclocations across the island.

Electricity consumption has also increased over the period, both interms of energy usage and peak demand.

Annex 9.3.4 shows the following relationship, i.e. (standardefficiency indicators), over the period 1983-1987/88.

(1) Number of employees/customers(2) Sales GWh/employee

6.3 Staff Recruitment. Trainina and Dev-lopnent

over the period there was the continued high turnover of staffaspecially in the Engineering and Technical Management area. This could beattributed to uncompetitive salaries as the open market value of suitablyqualified professional personnel could not be matched by the company. Thiswas further affected by national wage guidelines.

Experienced personnel left critical positions for more lucrativejobs within and outside of the sector. Migration to first world countries wasalso a contributory factor.

This problem has been recognized and an attempt at addressing it wasmade by adjusting the salaries of management personnel. It is at present tooearly to assess if this action will alleviate the rapid loss of personnel inthis category or increase our capability of attracting the high calibrepersonnel required for our continued growth and development.

On the other hand, the Company maintained a dynamic training programand an ongoing reorganization of its structure, which provided motivation to

maintain the dedicated core of employees. This was necessary to enhance thecontinued growth and development of the Company to meet the ever increasingdemand for a reliable supply of electricity to the customers. For example,vacancies at the supervisory and lower levels were filled through promotions

and new employment.

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The Company continues to maintain a vibrant training program bothin-house, external and overseas. Under the Third Power Project, employesowere trained in different courses.

The average turnover of personnel during the period was estimated atfive percent (5%). This ranks as a reoaonable average for an organization ofthis type.

7.0 ECOOMIC R-VaLUATION

In our economic and technical evaluation of the projects under Loan2188-JAM each project has various levels of economic viability and hence eachproject was justified on its own merit.

At Project Completion time, the project showing the most attractivesavings is the Installation of the Reverse Osmosis System at Old Harbor PowerStation.

The economic evaluation of the other projects at this time islimited mostly to comparison of expected input cost and actual project cost.The benefits to be derived from the investment are of a long term nature andhence will best be reflected in an improvement in the operating parameters ofthe sector. The projects undertaken, being only a part of a large investmentprogram cannot be singled out for specific economic viability as the detailedlevel of monitoring necessary to extract this information is not at present inplace.

Over the period the system heat rate has moved from 14,028 BTU/KWhto 11,946 reflecting quite an improvement in generating efficiency. SystemPower Factor has also moved from 0.87 to 0.95 over the period indicating thecontribution achieved in loss reduction from the installation of capacitors.

These immediate upward trends are indicative that the Third PowerProject stands to gain its expected economic benefits over the economic life.

8.0 CONCLU8 W

The 1BRD Third Power Project loan was utilized to fund majorprojects which were vital to tha improvement and upgrading of the ElectricUtility System in Jamaica.

Prior to the implementation of the Project, the generation systemreflected one of low reliability plagued by multiple loss of units and of moresignificance, the inability to generate at name plate rating as a result ofplant defects.

The transmission system was at a stage where there was a need toestablish vital links in order to optimize the economic flow of power andelectrical energy to the load centers across the island, and associatedsubstation expansion was necessary.

- 23 -

BDand on an inventory of our installed distribution plant and as aresult of economic and technical evaluation, the voltage standardizationshowed potential for trcmndous savings.

With the advont of improved technology in the power industry and theinstallation of state of the art equipment, the component of Training andConsultancy was invaluable to the dovelopment and exposure of local personnelin the technical, operational and management categories.

A re-evaluation of the system at Project Completion time, has shownthat there is considerable improvement in the Electric Power Sector.

The generating system has become more reliable and the transmissionsystem is better equipped to transport power to the load centers.

The savings affected from installation of the Reverse Osmosis plantis in fact better than was proposed.

The Voltag- Standardization Program has not realized the successthat was planned in teems of numb-r of circuit miles to be upgraded but therehave been definite benefits dorived from the program.

The system power factor has improved from 0.87 to 0.95 over theperiod hence justifying the installation of capacitors on the primarydistribution system.

Over the period, the company has managed to move from a position ofloss to one of realizing a profit and has achieved a reasonable rate ofreturn.

Overall, the projects undertaken for utilizatlon of the loan haveproven to be of economic benefit, the loan itself was adequately administeredand utilized.

The Jamaica Public Service Company is in a much improved position in1988 compared to 1983 when the loan was negotiated.

3) 0 OlUIENTS O P0ERONUC FROM JPS PRSPECVE

JPS staff is in general agreement with the view expressed by Bankstaff that, for the most part, the principal objectives of the project wereachieved.

We also concur with the view that the most important exception tothe above was that the objective of reducing system losses wras not met. Thereport, however, stops short of attempting to identify the reasons for thefailure to meet this objective.

In this respct we would wish to see the report contain someanalysis which attempted to Ldentify the reasons for the failure tosignificantly reduce the levels of losses. We are presontly grappling with

- 24 -

thli problm and have met with only limited success so far. Although Power IVhas been under implementation for about two years and approximately 44% of theprojected project expenditures dLibureed, losses still remain at a high levelof approximately 19% of net generation.

It is our vliw that both ourselves and the Bank should have paidmore attention to the monitoring of loss targets during supervisLon so as toprovide an early warning that the targets would not have been achieved. Itmay have been useful for the project design to have incorporated featureswhich would have provided a more direct focus on loss reduction and for moreeffectlve monitoring of loss targets during project implementation.

We are pleased to note that many of these deficiencies have beencorrected in the Power IV project as the monitoring of such targets as therate at which power factor correction capacitors are installed, and the systempower factor itself, are likely to improve the focus on loss reductlon.

It may have been useful, however, to have gone a bit further andincluded a study component in Power IV, which would have sampled losses onrepresentative feeders throughout the implementation period so that theefficiency measures contemplated could be more responsive to changingsituations. It is conceivable that system extensions could make measureswhich were origlnally shown to be cost effective, uneconomic by the timeimplementation of the component wae completed. WLthout a programe of on-goingassessment, it will be difficult to estimate how effective each loss reductionmeasure has been or even what level of improvement has been attributable towhich element of the package of measures.

Prolect Supervision

JPS staff considers that the number and timing of Bank supervisionvisits were adequate in the financial area but it was felt that in thetechnical areas it would have been useful to increase the frequency ofsuperviLson visLts to about three year each year, particularly in the earlyyears of implementation. This would have assisted in resolving procurementissues in a more timely manner at a time when staff would have been relativelyunfamiliar with the Bank procedures.

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PROJECT COMPLETION REPORTJAMA&1h

THIRD POWER PROJECT(LOAN 2188-JM)

PART III

Statistical Information

1. Related Bank Loans

Year ofLoan Purmose Auoroval Status

Loan 454-JM To help finance the 1966 Completed 1982.First Power foreign cost of two(Power I) generating plants and

associated transmissionand distributionfacilities for thegreater Kingston area(USS22M).

Loan 1516-JM To help finance the 1978 Completed 1984.Second Power foreign cost of the(Power II) transmission and

distribution systemscenters in urban,together with technicalassistance forimprovement of operatingand maintenance practices(USS2O m).

Loan 2869-3M To continue 1987 Overall projectFourth Power rehabilitation and implementation behind(Power IV) institutional program schedule mainly because

undertaken under second of diversion of effortand third power projects to repairing hurricane(USS18m). damage caused by

Hurricane Gilbert inSeptember 1988.

- 26 -

PROJECT COMPLE1TON RtEPORTJAMAtC

TRIRD POWER PROJECT(LSOAN 2188-M)

2. Prai*c: Tinetable

Date Revised Actuall:te3n Plan.ned Date Date

Identification 2/8

pre-Appraisal 5181. 7181. 9181

Appraisal 1/82

Loan Negotiations 5/82

Board Approval 6124182

Lea&: Sgnatur:e 7127182

Loan Ef!ectiveness 101211/2 02/25/83 02128183

Leoan ClosLng 12131/83 12131186 12131187

Lea:% Completieov 12184 06130188

- 27 -

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

THUIRD POWER PROJECT(LOAN 2188-JM1

JAMXIC

3 Loan- Disbursements

3a.k FLscal Yea: ---(Accu=.%.Lated Disbu:se=ents CUSS trillor.)--- A::C&a.and Half-year

SAR. ActuaS ofEs:ima:e Cumu.ua~Lve Es:*n3:.

198312/31/82 1.9 0.0 0.006/30/83 6.1 0.5 7.4

198412/31/83 15.6 0.6 3.906/30/84 24.3 4.8 19.7

198510/31184 29.1 8.2 2S.206130/85 30.1 11.5 38.2

198612131/85 30.5 15.4 50.406130/86 30.5 20.7 67.9

198812131/87 30.5 22.9 '75.006/30/88 30.5 27.2 89.0

198912/31/88 28.7 94.206/30/89 29.3 96.1

199012/31/89 30.3 99.3

Date of final dLsbursement: 7/13189

- 28 -

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORTJAMAICA

T-ETPD POWER PROJECT(LOAN 2188-JM)

JAMAICA

,PART III

4. Prolect ?nwl.entnat9Aon

Aporiaial ActualEsaimat or PCR Estimate

dter. IaI lat n / Installations

Zodceat.r 1 ?Iangmsatson and Substat:ons:

(7) Annetto Bay - Port Antonio, 89 kV (25 mile); As at appraisal

(I;) installaWon of a 6.25 UVA, 09/24 kV - do -transfanm-r at Annet:o Say and expansion oftne Port Antonio Substation; and

(iii) replacement, u7srading and reconductorTng ofabout 53 ml Ias of 69 kV weed pele I inot.

Zndicatro 2 tst_t_butien

Indicator 3 (1) 272 cir:uit - m.lin upgrading and *rt nslan of 420 cireuit miles24 kV primary lins;

(iT) IS MVAR of capacitors: 0 MVAR of capacity

(;;;) 39,000 kWh motors; 21,405

(;v) 16,00 secondary diatribution ext.nsion 12104servi ces;

(v) 47 UVA of d;str;bution transformers; and 211 MVA

(p;) 13,000 *tre . lights. Non-

C n-r6l Pr.o an*ryX 44

S0 eprst3on and maintonranco w-hicloS

- 29-

PROJECT COMPLETION REPORT

THIRD POWER PROJECT(LOAg 2188-J,f

PART I r

S. P:01.c: Cos:s azd FA:icL:-

A. ::e'c: Cw ::

~~~~~~---------- ------ _ __,___ce=l,_

(~5S ±LL"'Qc) ,(:SS inL!_c-.)CaGtexc?r Fdre. . ;jj :eL L.a 7.'

6.0 4.0 3.0.0 5.3 L.4

T::ts-.'Sia . 3.9 3.2 7.1 3.4 3.6 S.:

Sabsta:I:= 0.5 0.3 0.s8 0.8 0.4 L.Z

4.9 3.2 S.t 7.9 3.6 .:..

vtzicls & Sca.d.a.: 5.0 3.4 3.4 5.6 0.7 .

Cc_s£3.:Lg s.=s.ces 3.1 0.8 4.0 3.7 0.7

0:-- .9 0.2 I.. 0.7 0.3 I..

SiUota.L ~24.4 IS.L 39.5 .29.9 La.? 40.A

Ph7sical ccmmi-ge=.cexs 2.4 1.5 3.9 _ . _

1:VLs Co±tiev:;e- s 3.1 .A 5.1 *

Sibcatal 30.0 18.6 48.6 19.9 30.7 40.6

F:cut-e*4 fee 0.5 _ . . _ 0.5

Total 30 3 13.4 49.. 34 ic;.T 4L,

1:I Es% "ated Costs at completion.

om 1t S ::s ot s oLCc

Actual local expenditures ve'e Slighty less t1ae ovlSnally estIMated

partly because of reductiOn Of some Of the activities p?eYio"ay inludeddu?Lng appraisal.

- 30 -

(:s$0 2' 33-).)

Z3 ?.~~~~~~~~~~~3 0

:3.'S~~~~~~~~~~403 7-7-,s-.e s:a :-c. 3Sco 58 3

Ta.5sv.Ls%xs L-t 77 54

VebL;Lus a: Ev:L;e- 5000 5533

Cots£.:a- Se :e sa4 t:.^"t'; 4L00 4373

Fee 45. 4S'

ti' lLcca:. 563649 -

?ac. so30,500 30,340

S Goi. s .c I10.700

Total 4S, 00 4L,.040

Unallocated funds were rallocated mostly for trxasmisiiau,distribution gad substatlo?.s

- 31 -

PROJtCT COOPNLZTYQ RPORT

TIR RDOVER PjE.LON 21B-X

6. Proict Results

A. Direct enef ite

SAM ActualIndicators Estimate' Closing Date2

(1985) (1987)

Market Penetration 1126 1370.83oWh Sales -

Average number of customers 2744 271(thousands)

Number of permanent Employees 1960 1604

Customers/Employes 140 169

0Wh sold/Employees 1582 0.9

Losses (I net generation) 13 19.5

Power factor (at system peak) 0.95 0.95

Average heat rate (BSTU per kWh) 13.500 11.6164

I/ SAR figures are for 1985, the latest date in which estimates were made.

1/ We selected the actual closing date as a more appropriate date to showwhat actually occured.

Jf The sales figure from January 1, 1986 to March 31, 1987 is 1542 GWh. Weused sales from January 1, 1987 to December 31, 1987 as a betterlndLiator.

9/ This li the figure for the period January 1, 1986 to March 31, 1987 fora lack of an average figure for calendar year 1987.

- 32 -

B. Economic Impact

Appraisal EstimatedEstimete Actual

Internal Economic Rate of Return (IERR): 230 13%

1. The SAR estimate was based on JPS's 1982-85 investment program asthe benefits of the project could not readily be isolated from those of theinvestment program. The program was assumed to yield benefits over a 20 yearperiod.

2. In recalculating the IERR, a similar methodology has been used tothat in the SAR. Because of the longer period needed to implement theprogram, the rate of return has been calculated for the 1982-88 poriod.

3. Costs and benefits were recalculated using 1983 prices.

4. Costs consisted of incremental inventment costs, as well asincremental fuel and operations and maintenance costs.

5. The benefits of the program includedt (a) incremental sales overthe 1981 level. Sales above this level could not have been achieved withoutongoing and now program investments (b) improvements in generating plantefficiency exprsseed in reduced fuel costs and calculated at the 1981 saleslevel to avoid double counting these benefits (c) loss reduction benefitswhere benefits from the reduction of outages and the associated losses inindustrial output have not been included in the IERR calculation. The latterbenefits were significantly lower than the SAR estimate.

6. Comments on the IERR are given in para. 6.6 of Part I.

- 33

C. Financial Impact

1. JPS's actual financial performance is compared to the SAR forecastfrom 1982 to 1985, the last year of the SAR forecast, in Annex 1.The Annex also gives actual figures for FY87 (a fifteen month periodto march 31) and FY88.

2. Comments on JPS's financial performance are given in para. 6.04 ofPart 1.

- 34 -

JAMAICA

0. Stud;e-

Purpoeo as definedat aoorsoal 5t-tus rmoact of Stud!

Long-Range Long rang. generaton plant Completed Asx;stod In future planning.Cen-ration Study, to assure l*ast cost

development of *ystem.

Rehab;itation of To assist In implementat;en Completed Plant heat rate improvedthermal pwe-r of generation rehab;lItat;on sgnificantlyplants. program.

F;nancial Planning To Improve financial Completed Financial planning and Internalincluding tariffs, planning, budgeting, controls improved. Governmentfinancial planning purchasing and internal considered tariff structureand Internal financial controls, recommendations too compilcatod ar:

controls, did not implement. Terms ofreference for new study agreed N -Bank. Acceptable recommendatiorsinmeplementod Apr;l 1990

Transmisiotn and To implement improvements In Completed At time reconmendations regardingdistributiens the operation and transmission and distribution wereoperations. maintenance of transmission made, JPS not organized and sta''c:

and distribution as well as to implement. System ;mprovemen::planning, reliability, made later with help of 8E. Lossreductions of losses, reduction recommendations regardoe

JPS as insufficient. JPS hasdeveloped loss reduct;on programwh;ch ;s being mon;tored by Bankunder Fourth Power Project (Ln

Zgsprove_ente In To Improve managerial Completed Management, financial and operati:-power plant capacity and assist In performance greatly Improved."nagemert planning and maintenance

functions.

Preparateon of Net Included at appraisal. Completed Transmission line satisfactorily

design and tender Far transmission lines completed.doume_nts and Annette Bay-Port Anton;-censtructtien*uprvisieon.

Preparation of ceal Not Included at appraosal. Completed Field Investigation of site made.plant and harbourprelt-;mary degio.

Field Inveetigatten - do - Completed JPS decided site not mast faveraeb:

of *Ite for geal especially atter hurricanefired plant. eaperienc

- 35 -

JAMArCA

7. Status of Coven.an:s

Covenants SUV ect Camoliance Remarks

L/A 3.02 Borrower to employ yescor.sul:ants ingene:ation. planning.financial panning,power plan:rehab2.i:a:ion. andsystem operation trainin g.

L/A 4.05 NeVwy appoin.ted Chief yesExecu:ive 0::ficers tohave qUa 1ifS'ca:_on andexperience sa:tisfac:oryto the Bark.

LIA 4.06 JPS to prepa:e yessatisfactory trainingprogram and sb.ubmIt tosank.

LIA 5.02 J?S to have its accou.ts yes(a) audited annually and

subc±t:etd to Bank withinfour months.

L/A 5.02 (b) JPS to have its internal yes Substantial improvementscontrol systems made in internal control.evaluated by independentauditors

L/A 5.04 J.PS to ea.. at least SZ not £xcept for 63, rates ofrate of return in 1983. met return were less than8: in 1984 and 8.5: covenanted. but Baikthereafter. accepted this because of

improvins financial trends.Loan 289 (1967) required 5for Ml;t, 62 for FY89 and 8:thereafter.

- 36 -

PROJECT COQPLETI0N REPORT"MI;CA

TiaRD POWER PROJECT(LOAN 2188-JM)

JAMICA

PART III

S. Cs. of the Bank Rssot,::es

A. S:Af! *_:u:s

F:-G Pr:ojec: ide: fL!ca:L.Cm. S F'! tO C:of S_Pe.._S'- t- 0a t t S of 157.7 Sa* w o*ks were exIe=d on the :prez as

;tt-e: ofS:uc. of P-4ect Cr:t1 S;Cf! 7eeks Pe-e:.tage

r; tc &;;r&Lsal. 57.1 34

;pasza'l Th:oS:gh Boar:d asor 40.6 .24

Supe:rvsoCns 70.0 42

Total 1 7.7 00

1- the absence of precise ifo=:toz. es:eatad aLlocations havebee- made of the t±e spe-t cm ao:itLties u; to Board approval.

.~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ _. .. ...*

- 37 -

Sag. d2 PJ..t..t4 UWulhI Nib. *5 3oy 5* Soli.Ls _ l.veimua. 7p .loot weboam haLt 6.ap,..oo. Satin Staue PiasLo

*. n."ew ^ .. s.^u~~~1. UAU

-~pvotaaA2161S 2 13 VM. PA-sprai St A P 8 DC. VA .

,.10161 3 S VS.IA 1162 5 18 K.e -

tOal 1' 23

0162 *3 £ .

C. lard ThrSueb Loss tfott001064

9162 ~2 I ViV A -LI£h182 I *' Pt: VA 2l' . *. V. ?

10S 2 S. Ps.VA

S. lull SuoW"tia

10183 2 S n. it all N.T.,'* a S n V A a 1 0to,$1 5 10' n: IA. ?C al1 L.s.4162 3 11' V. Vt. a t/I 0.T.71S 3 ir Pt. A. sc all

S. l.Ua.u SuoWiaiOS9.1016 3 1V n. VA a1l '186 3 10 I.A /1 0

! al2d 1wlaio tfr La I3ISM *

33 Iaoadd Praprtios t she Vfmrs VInie Presest

3) *n2Ad p.o.ap a . to e Vott lust PTajodt

0) baelud. opprsta at amo vuArth Vminr Prajoo

$) Lae2da post-appna" of the Vmnb liver "rjet

C) Za... Suprelolo, at she Vfet t Pr jot

73 first umbere tdieato. oweral stusu * whIle .0 ItSitotos traadssta $ 1) prbim it" art aIsor p1rblomeg23 medrato problemus 33 major per o3.

traMs I epotes ) *so stIomst 2) deotirttig$

83 These IsesL.L roprsa*tb. tp og probler I. Vri la N. Nemse le t? Talols Pe Posea 01 Ote e tot

Sp.eielleasins VI. ler Itqmorlmsg, VA. VIaeaLal Aslpota Deputy PIotvesm eGb l u. -a.

- 38 -

PO$* I of 3

.......... . .............

JAAIA 18.0 513 A3

ATUD AcT 1r AA...................

..............

"CA

Oporattag ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Je Rawema.awu

1000114 *tat_et loss-it"(1E1U Of J$l

&U ~~~ ~~1943 1984 loss 1967 it""a CU:L M ACUL U ACVAL SAIRL CTUL ACUAL ACUAL

Be" Rate lvemee 135.5 134.9 171.6 173.6 203.3 303.3 224.3 324.8 352.6 512.8luol Cla"* 1WOMP 163.4 153.6 1. 5 166.9 204.0 319.1 225.6 467.2 435.9 393.2Otbo . 0.4 . 1.1 - 1.5 1.6 1.9 1.6

Total 29$.9 291.1 357.3 341.6 407.8 625.9 450.9 793.6 971.6 907.6

Oprefttag 2.mo-el 184.1 19.S IU.0 167.9 193.6 317.5 315.s 436.3 40.2 427.7

Operetta a mwtmtes* 76.1 74.0 62.9 84.6 96.0 133.3 106.2 136.4 201.4 163.5Su Total 260.2 267.5 270.9 252.5 291.0 450.8 321.7 574.9 641.6 613.2

Depr"sttes 47.7 42.0 53.6 47.6 59.5 96.1 64.3 132.3 197.1 165.8Total Oporstia Z.a..s 307.9 309.3 324.5 300.3 351.3 544.9 388.0 707.2 $61.7 779.0

met Operatin Imam .9. 1 1S.4 33.6 41.5 56.5 79.0 52.9 65.5 132.9 126.6

tutrest 22.7 27.6 2. 1 44.3 24.0 52.5 16.3 63.4 50.9 53.2Loses Interest Cbrge to Comatzuttt 3.2 6.5 4.0 4.9 3.6 9.3 3.1 21.0 6.7 3.5Interest bohegd to Operetta". 19. 21.1 22.1 41.4 20.4 43.2 15.2 42.4 72.2 49.7not uenee after Tax -2$.7 -39.5 10.7 0.1 34.1 35.8 47.7 44.2 60.7 78.9Ioem Tax 19.2 26.4

not I.e... Attor Tax -26.7 .39.5 10.7 0.1 34.1 35.6 47.7 44.2 41.5 52.5

Ainaal Sales (OWb) 1040.0 1079.0 1i71.0 1172.0 1096.0 1159.0 1126.0 1147.0 1542.0 1371.0lurimioo (1) 2.3 8.0 3.0 6.7 2.3 -1.3 2.7 -0.9 34.4 8.9Unit Ioea T.rtff. (jel/mb) 13.0 13.0 16.0 14.8 18.8 25.4 19.9 28.3 28.3 28.7lUlt Puel C1Ua 13.1 14.0 17.3 14.2 18.6 27.6 20.0 40.7 34.6 37.4ftit4ther . 0.0 . 0.1 . 0.1 . 0.2 0.1 0.1

Avobago tarif 27.0 $3.3 29.1 37.2 54.0 40.0 69.0 63.0 64.2

- 39 -

I I

.._$...4.a 2

mm"MUG2N~gma ff ~2*jaglund 6216

a,u a's9 ita." 1o6s 1£7 i16$a *066 U 10165 64 A0665L SU Au£m £MIL A016

Om= oWarea 6.ur..lat Op.nts tg m .64 .16.4 2.6 41.5 26.6 76.0 62.6 46.6 12. 12.6Ds,v.atam 47.7 42.0 52.2 47.6 294 66.1 66.2 132.3 197.1 165.6Ametsttsm of debt d t . 0.2 . . . . . . .Custeo" $dVt.*. am .0 *s 1.0 2.6 1. . 1.0 6.$ 1. £0.2 *.1 10.0arese ant*gul 0" mb etam 39.6 24.6 67.? 64.2 117.1 £l6. 130.2 226.2 22.1 204.4Loses abts avteSa. wdtesdAmt1sas1m 26.1 $2.1 34.7 22.2 40.0 112.2 42.6 12.7 101.7 70.6Inseveat 2.7 27.6 2S61 45.6 240 .52.2 16.3 63.4 40.9 $2.2Loseat lKstet Chard to C_ai ttm -2.2 .4.5 -4.0 .4.9 -.36 -6.2 -2.1 -21.0 -4.7 .3.Divides" 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2too"* tan 16.4 26.*Tfat 42.6 53.4 $7.0 72.4 60.6 123.6 52.2 172.2 £62.2 147.2not latois" C oAb camegatim -6.2 .26.5 30.2 O.6 26.5 2.2 71.0 26.6 144.6 127.2

mq.stm b powtap 54.7 31.2 31.6 24.5 24.1 176.6 2.4 16.7 112.6 £2.2

am gma a955 2.0 7.2 0.0 .4 . 2.0 . 40.1 2.2 33.2

tal e s. 12.1 61.6 61.7 60.6 203.6 73.4 2U2.7 23.6 212.6

Uww iinstrtam _m tum ( 1 0) 55.4 S1.2 26.6 21.6 42.8 212.2 22.1 2192. 126.4 145.4

sar * 1.7 * *

obas s Wtbg l 0.00mb 0.4 -0.4 0.4 2.6 0.4 17.1 2.2 4.6 92.7 102.2

_ meabA 0.3 -40.4 4.6 6.0 36.4 .26.7 29.1 -11.4 44.8 6S2.

'stl SpSa.m 1.2.1 61. 61.7 60.6 203. 73.4 205.7 U2.9 3212.

- 40 -

pape 3 so 8PWICK~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

......... ..............

..............

JAMCAJAAICA IWUC OUTICK Caml

Pslmueml Rattof 1902-1980(WIe. t~ O)

1902 1908 1904 I190 1987 190us ACtAL SA ACTUAL "a ACTUAL on ACTUAL ACTUAL ACTUAL

at. ad return LI) -1.3 s.23. 5.0 3.6 0.0 6.6 0.8 5.2 7.1 6.4Det aezyta. , *i.ra 0.9 0.8 1.S 1.2 2.0 1.7 2.2 1.3 1.0 2.0.u fixemauI ratio (I) -11.2 -123 49.0 38.1 70.1 20.2 96.7 19.9 100.1 101.1Avere leveeJ. JImb 20.0 27.0 33.4 29.2 37.2 54.2 40.0 69.2 63.0 66.2OCrortta rCt"

i,t. F" 07.1 91.9 73.8 78.9 71.5 70.3 71.8 72.4 66.0 67.6an. hal 23.5 2.4 20.2 24.0 23.5 21.5 23.5 17.2 20.7 20.4

Fellitoul ab op era" eagee.. 70.7 72.8 69.4 46.1 47.1 69.4 67.0 76.3 60.6 69.7hbItlegmity "tie (2) 84.2 41.0 31.2 3. 1 26.4 37.2 19.7 37.8 40.4 19.3

:.nb ratio 1.6 0.8 2.0 1.0 1.9 1.7 4.2 1.1 1.5 8.1-a avebs (d.") 7.0 71.2 68.0 74.1 60.0 40.6 $5.0 21.0 43.7 0.5Depeoattft a. of gre tead e"Set 4.2 3.0 4.2 8.2 4.2 4.5 4.2 8.$ 4.7 4.0