workshop on extreme events max planck institut for complex system dresden, 30 october-2 november...

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rkshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex Syst Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous Media artment of Mathematics, University of Naples, 9-10 November 2 Analysis of the tsunami event in Algeria 2003 S. Dobrokhotov (1) , B. Tirozzi (2) , P. Zhevandrov (3) , F. Raicich (4) Institute for Problems in Mechanics, RAS, Moscow, Russia Department of Physics, University “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy Escuela de Ciencias Fisico-Matematicas, Morelia, Mich., Mexi CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, Trieste, Italy

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Page 1: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex SystemDresden, 30 October-2 November 2006

Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous MediaDepartment of Mathematics, University of Naples, 9-10 November 2006

Analysis of the tsunami event in Algeria 2003

S. Dobrokhotov (1), B. Tirozzi (2), P. Zhevandrov (3),

F. Raicich (4)

(1) Institute for Problems in Mechanics, RAS, Moscow, Russia(2) Department of Physics, University “La Sapienza”, Rome, Italy(3) Escuela de Ciencias Fisico-Matematicas, Morelia, Mich., Mexico(4) CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, Trieste, Italy

Page 2: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

Valencia

Barcelona

Ibiza

Earthquake data (USGS): t0: 18:44:19 GMT, 21 may 2003 USGS: epicenter 36.96°N, 3.63°E, M=6.9, hf=12 km Borerro: epicenter 36.90°N, 3.71°E, M=6.8, hf=10 km, strike=56°

Page 3: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

Euristic formula for the run-up used by Pelinovsky and Ivanov: but no proofs available!

Page 4: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

Ellipsoidal deformation

M = 6.9

hf = 12 km

(Pelinovsky et al., 2001)

a = 34 km

b = 12 km

b56°

a

Coordinates: model gridpoints

Page 5: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

(Dobrokhotov et al., 2006)

a1= 1.2 10-2 km-1

Gaussian*cosine deformation

= 0

a2 = 2.7 10-2 km-1

b1 = 0.5 10-2 km-2

b2 = 4.0 10-2 km-2

= 56°

Coordinates: model gridpoints

Page 6: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 7: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 8: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 9: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 10: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 11: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 12: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 13: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 14: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

Acknowledgements

The observed sea-level data for Ibiza are kindly provided by Dr. B. Perez, Puertos del Estado, Madrid, Spain.

Page 15: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

Linear theory of the scattering of localized waves on a beach with

constant slope.

Page 16: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 17: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 18: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 19: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 20: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 21: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 22: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

Example: Scattering of a packet on a beach with constant slope

Page 23: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 24: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 25: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 26: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 27: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous

The asymptotic formulas

Page 28: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 29: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous
Page 30: Workshop on Extreme Events Max Planck Institut for Complex System Dresden, 30 October-2 November 2006 Workshop on Kinetic Theory and Mechanics of Continuous