WORKSHOPCombating Climate Change:

National Commitments and Activities

22 March 2002, Skopje

Measures for Abatement of GHG Emissions in Energy Sector

T. Bosevski, G. Kanevce, M. TodorovskiN. Krstanovski, A. Causevski

Activity level [kt/year] of different sectors in 1998

Electricity production

73%

Heat17%

Transport10%

Energy74.27%

Agriculture10.45%

LUCF0.19%

Waste8.04%

Industrial Processes

7.05%

CO2 21*CH4 310*N2O CO2-eq. (%)Energy 9,189.06 1,973.48 41.16 11,203.71 74.27Industrial Processes 995.32 0.05 68.26 1,063.63 7.05Agriculture 0.00 696.57 880.40 1,576.97 10.45LUCF 27.44 1.47 0.00 28.91 0.19Waste 0.00 1,069.95 142.60 1,212.55 8.04

Total 10,211.82 3,741.52 1,132.42 15,085.77 100.00

Electric power system expansion planning:

WASP – Wien Automatic System Planning (Electric power system expansion planning)

VALORAGUA – Valorization of water - Portuguese (Simulation of a mixed hydro-thermal power system used to enhance the WASP analysis)

OPTIM – Model developed by the study team members (Detailed simulation of a mixed hydro-thermal power system used to enhance the WASP analysis)

GHG Abatement for the Energy Sector- Electricity Production

Basic Data and Existing PlantsPlanning period: 2001-2030Electricity demand: 7000 GWh, 1267 MW (year 2001)Annual growth rates: 3.75%, 3.25% and 2.75% by decadesSimulation type: montly basis, three hydroconditions

Electricity production (year 2000)Name Net cap. (MW) Energy (GWh)Bitola 1 207 1,463.7Bitola 2 207 1,489.3Bitola 3 207 1,389.1Oslomej 109 463.7Negotino 198 353.2TOTAL 928 5,159.0

Name Net cap. (MW) Energy (GWh)Vrben 12.8 31.4Vrutok 150 376.8Raven 19.2 43.2Globocica 42 178.2Spilje 84 289.9Tikves 92 128.3Small hydro 41 122.2TOTAL 441 1,170.0

GWh %Thermal 5,159 82Hydro 1,170 18TOTAL 6,329 100Import 291Export 179Demand 6,441

Energy ResourcesSolid fuels

Suvodol (66 mill. t - status 2001, 10 years)

Oslomej (14 mill. t - status 2001, 12 years)

Additional reserves

Suvodol (second layer, about 20 mill. t, there is no mining project)

Brod-Gneotino (surface layer, about 40 mill. t, there is no mining project)

Liquid fuels

Refinery OKTA (2.5 mill. t crude oil/year)

Oil pipeline Skopje-Thessalonike

Natural gas

Gas pipeline (800 mill. m3/year), possible extension to 1200 mill. m3/year

Renewable resouces

Geothermal (80 GWh /year)

Wood (average 930 000 m3/year , 3000 GWh)

Hydro plants under construction: Kozjak & Matka 2

Hydro plants candidates: HYD1: Galiste & CebrenHYD2: B. Most, Veles & Gradec

Extensions of the existing mines

Reconstruction of existing thermal power plants(during extended scheduled maintenance)

Thermal plants candidates:CCC 180 - cogeneration combined cycle, 180 MW, 60% eff.CC 270 - combined cycle, 270 MW, 57.6 % eff.AP 600 - advanced nuclear plant, 600 MW, 33.4 % eff.

New Plants

Electric Power System Expansion ScenariosBaseline scenario: Business as usual

First mitigation scenario: more efficient use of the hydropotential (conversion of classical into pump-storage hydroplants )

Second mitigation scenario: pump-storage hydroplants and introduction of mixed fuel in the existing thermal plants Bitola and Oslomej

Revision of the second mitigation scenario: update of the initial conditions and main assumptions (stagnation of the consumption, study period 2003-2030, annual growth rates 3.5%, 3% & 2.5% by decades, two-year delay of Kozjak & Matka 2, three-year delay of CCC 180)

OptimalExpansionPlans

Year Baseline First Second Rev. second2002 Kozjak Kozjak Kozjak20032004 Matka 2 Matka 2 Matka 2 Kozjak2005 CCC 180 CCC 180 CCC 1802006 B. Most B. Most B. Most Matka 22007 Galiste Galiste B. Most2008 CCC 1802009 CC 270 Galiste2010 CC 270 CC 270201120122013 Cebren CC 2702014 Cebren2015 CC 27020162017 Cebren2018 CC 270 CC 2702019 Veles, Gradec Veles, Gradec Veles, Gradec2020 Nuclear AP600 Nuclear AP600 Veles2021 Gradec2022 CC 27020232024 Nuclear AP600 Nuclear AP6002025 Nuclear AP600 Nuclear AP6002026202720282029 Nuclear AP6002030 Galiste, Cebren

Electricity production by fuel types(Baseline scenario)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

W (GWh)

Hydro+Nuclear

CCC, CC - Gas

Negotino - Oil

Oslomej - Lignite

Bitola - Lignite

Electricity production by fuel types(Revised second mitigation scenario)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

W (GWh)

Hydro+Nuclear

CCC, CC - Gas

Negotino - Oil

Oslomej - Lignite + Oil

Bitola - Lignite + Oil

Lignite consumption for electricity production

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(106 t)

First mitigation scenarioBaseline scenario

Second mitigation scenarioRevised second mitigation scenario

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(106 t)

Baseline scenario

Revised second mitigation scenario

Integral lignite consumption for electricity production

182 mill. t

129 mill. t

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(103 t)

First mitigation scenario

Baseline scenario

Second mitigation scenario

Revised second mitigation scenario

Residual fuel oil consumption for electricity production

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

1000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

(106 m3)

First mitigation scenario

Baseline scenario

Second mitigation scenario

Revised second mitigation scenario

Natural gas consumption for electricity production

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2-eq. (kt)

Gaseous - CO2+CH4+N2O

Liquid - CO2+CH4+N2O

Solid - CH4+N2O

Solid - CO2

Equivalent CO2 emissions from electricity production by fuel types

(Baseline scenario)

Equivalent CO2 emissions from electricity production by fuel types

(Revised second mitigation scenario)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO2-eq. (kt)

Gaseous - CO2+CH4+N2O

Liquid - CO2+CH4+N2O

Solid - CH4+N2O

Solid - CO2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

[kg/kWh]

First mitigation scenario

Baseline scenario

Second mitigation scenario

Revised second mitigation scenario

Specific CO2-equivalent emissions from electricity production

Period 2001-2020Total CO2-eq. emissions (kt)

Total system costs (k$)

Baseline scenario 187,644 4,615,040First mitigation scenario 184,274 4,635,298Difference 3,370 -20,258Abatement costsBaseline scenario 187,644 4,615,040Second mitigation scenario 152,832 5,399,287Difference 34,812 -784,247Abatement costs

Period 2001-2030Total CO2-eq. emissions (kt)

Total system costs (k$)

Baseline scenario 240,241 6,805,029First mitigation scenario 233,751 6,723,242Difference 6,491 81,787Abatement costsBaseline scenario 240,241 6,805,029Second mitigation scenario 215,787 7,982,828Difference 24,454 1,177,799Abatement costs

6.01 $/t CO2-eq.

22.53 $/t CO2-eq.

-12.60 $/t CO2-eq.

48.16 $/t CO2-eq.

Abatement Costs

Heat Production

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 20001

03 T

J

Geo

Coal

LPG

N Gas

Wood

G/D Oil

RF OIL

Primary-energy sources consumption for heat production

Contribution of different primary-energy sources for annual heat production in Macedonia in 2000

Heat Production Scenarios

All scenarios are based on the finding from the corresponding electricity production scenarios

The forecasts for fuel consumption were made following the previous studies (average annual growth rate 3.7%)

Natural gas was given priority taking into account the limit of 1,200 mill. m3 per year.

It was assumed that the large heat production units will alternatively use natural gas or residual fuel oil.

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Geo

Coal

LPG

N Gas

Wood

G/D Oil

RF OIL

Revised secondmitigation scenario

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

TJ

Geo

Coal

LPG

N Gas

Wood

G/D Oil

RF OIL

Baseline scenario

Primary-energy sources consumption for heat production

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

106 n

m3 Heat production

Electricity prod.

Baselinescenario

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

106 n

m3 Heat production

Electricity prod.

Revised secondmitigation scenario

Natural gas consumptionfor electricity and heat production

Comparison of the Heat Production Scenarios

0 5000 10000 15000 20000 25000 30000 35000

Residual Fuel Oil

Gas/Diesel Oil

Wood

Natural Gas

LPG

Coal

Geothermal2030 R2nd MS

2030 2nd MS

2030 MS

2030 BS

2000

Heat production [TJ/yr]

Energy sources

2000

Geo2,4%

Wood13,8%

N Gas7,1%

G/D Oil19,4%

RF Oil46,6%

LPG6,3%

Coal4,3%

2030 BS

Geo1.2%

Wood7.1%

N Gas23.5%

G/D Oil11.8%

RF Oil35.1%

LPG18.6%

Coal2.7%

20301st MS

Geo1,4%

Wood6,3%

N Gas29,0%

G/D Oil11,0%

RF Oil35,2%

LPG14,1%

Coal3,0%

20302nd MS

Geo1,4%

Wood6,3%

N Gas32,1%

G/D Oil11,0%

RF Oil32,1%

LPG14,1%

Coal3,0%

2030R2nd MS

Geo1,4%

Wood6,3%

N Gas17,5%

G/D Oil11,0%

RF Oil46,7%

LPG14,1%

Coal3,0%

Equivalent CO2 Emissions from Heat Production by Fuel Types

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 -

eq

uiv

ale

nt

[kt]

Coal

LPG

Natural Gas

Wood

Gas/Diesel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Baselinescenario

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 -

eq

uiv

ale

nt

[kt]

Coal

LPG

Natural Gas

Wood

Gas/Diesel Oil

Residual Fuel Oil

Revised second mitigationscenario

Transport

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000

[kt]

Road-Gasoline

Road-Diesel

Rail-Diesel

Air-Kerosene

Fuel consumption

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Year

Tota

l num

ber

of v

ehic

les

Optimistic Pesimistic

Baseline Scenario for the Road Transport

Baseline Scenario for the Air Transport

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

Skopje

Ohrid

Number of landings and take-offs

Mitigation Scenarios for the Transport Sector

Road transport- Vehicles efficiency improvement- Reduction of vehicle-kilometers

Rail transport- Completion of the electrification

Air transport- Improvement of the efficiency- Improvement of ariport operation (reduction of waiting time for landing approval)

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

year

kt C

O2

per

year

baseline optimistic baseline pesimistic

mitigation optimistic mitigation pesimistic

Total CO2 Emissions for the Transport Sector

Electricity production:

- More efficient use of the hydropotential (pump-storage hydroplants)

- Introduction of liquid fuel in the existing thermal plants which yield significant reduction of CH4 emissions

- The new thermal power plants using natural gas are with high efficiency

- Keeping the fossil fuels as a dominant the nuclear plant is postponed to the year 2024

Heat

- Replacement of the old heating plants on liquid fuel with a new ones on natural gas

Transport

- Promotion of cleaner and more energy efficient vehicle applying variety of tax, custom and regulatory measures

- Improvement of the road infrastructure

Conclusions