workshop agir the hague february 14-15 2003 results for belgium – wp1 j. mestdagh – m. lambrecht...
TRANSCRIPT
WORKSHOP AGIR
THE HAGUE
FEBRUARY 14-15 2003
RESULTS FOR BELGIUM – WP1
J. MESTDAGH – M. LAMBRECHT
Aaaaa&&
Federal Planning Bureau
Economic Analysis &
Forecasts
WP1 – Results Belgium
TABLE OF CONTENTS
• Population
• Mortality
• Longevity
• Life courses
• Morbidity – health
• HLE - DFLE
Evolution of the population• Belgian population, by gender, 1950-2050 (31/12)
• 1948: 4.2 million men and 4.3 million women (8.5)• 2000: 5.0 million men and 5.2 million women (10.2)• 2050: 5.4 million men and 5.5 million women (10.9)
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
total
men
w omen
Population structure by age
1948 2000 2050
0-19 30% 25% 20%
20-44 36% 36% 29%
45-64 23% 22% 24%
65+ 11% 17% 26%
Average age of population
• 1948: 34.5 for men and 36 for women• 2000: 38 for men and 40 for women• 2050: 43.5 for men and 46 for women
2050: 0-19 = 92.5; 20-44 = 101.8; 45-59 = 120; 60+ = 266
3335373941434547
19
48
19
58
19
68
19
78
19
88
19
98
20
08
20
18
20
28
20
38
20
48
Total
Men
Women
Number of deaths by age
Shift to the right from 1948 – 2050 : deaths take place at older age (increase life expectancy)
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
0 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 56 63 70 77 84 91 98 105
1950
2000
2050
Survivors
• Survival curves for fictive cohorts (M+W), 1950-2000
• Shift upwards and to the right in time: more people survive at younger ages and people die later
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
80,000
90,000
100,000
0 7 14
21
28
35
42
49
56
63
70
77
84
91
98
1950
2000
Survivors (2)
• Survival curve 2000 and 2050 by gender
Further upward shift to the rightHigher for women than for men
010,00020,00030,00040,00050,00060,00070,00080,00090,000
100,000
0 8 16
24
32
40
48
56
64
72
80
88
96
10
4
men 2000
men 2050
women 2000
women 2050
Life expectancy at birth
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Men
Women
69,9
65.0
81.4
75.1
88.9
83.9
Life expectancy at age 65
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Men
Women
14.4
12.7
20.0
15.9
25.2
21.5
Life expectancy at 80
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
Men
Women
6.1
5.4
8.8
6.9
12.1
9.8
Modal life duration
• Age at which most deaths take place
Men Women
1950 76 77
1975 74 80
2000 80 86
2050 86 99+
Median Life duration
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
men
w omen75.6
70.9
84.6
78.3
90.9
86.2
Life endurance
80
85
90
95
100
105
men
women88.3
94.6
99.3
85.5
90.6
96.7
Record age
100
102
104
106
108
110
112
men
w omen
112
108
105
106
Age at which school ends
19.50
20.00
20.50
21.00
21.50
22.00
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
19.9
20.9
21.6
Age at household formation
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
1950
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
MenWomen
29.7
27.3
23.5
21.6
25.6
23.3
Age parents at childbirth
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
1966 1971 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
men -all
w omen -all
w omen - f irst
29.0
23.0
27.5
31.4
28.9
27.5
27.5
25.4
Age of transition into inactivity among older workers(OECD Definition)
52
54
56
58
60
62
64
66
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 1995 2000
men
women
58.3
63.3
56.9
62.9
54.1
57.6
Age at first widowhood
64.0065.0066.0067.0068.0069.0070.0071.0072.00
Women
Men
68.2
65.0
71.2
68.7
Perceived Health
% of population in good or very good health
1997 : Men 82%, women 75%
2001 : Men 79.5%, women 75%
70
72
74
76
78
80
82
men w omen
1997
2001
Perceived Health (2)% of population in (very) good health
Decrease in % with ageMen mostly better perceived health than women
404550556065707580859095
100
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
men
women
Vision impairment
% of population without limitations, 2001, by age group
Decreases with age; men better vision than women
75
80
85
90
95
100
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
men
women
Vision impairment
Vision impairment by age group and gender and degree, 2001
Limitations + degree increase with age; men have better vision
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+
moderate - men
severe- men
moderate women
severe women
Deafness
% of population without hearing problems, 2001, by age group
Decreases with age; women better than men
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-79
80-84
85+
men 2001
women 2001
Deafness (2)% of population with hearing problems, 2001, by gender and
degree
Increase of limitations and degree with age; men worse than women
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-74
75-79
80-84
85+
moderate men
moderate women
severe men
severe women
Mental Health% of population in good mental health, 2001
Difficult to draw conclusions about ageMen seem to have better health except in oldest
age group
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
80.0
90.0
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75-84 85+
men
women
Mobility handicap
% of population without any limitations, 1997-2001
% decreases with age, more limitations for elderly% lower for women than for menOlder age groups : lower % in 2001 than 1997 (worse!)
2030405060708090
100
15-24
25-34
35-44
45-54
55-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85+
men 1997
women 1997
men 2001
women 2001
Mobility handicap - 2001 (2)
Men Women
House Chair Bed House Chair Bed
15-24 0.7 - 0.1 0.1 0.6 0.6
25-34 0.6 - - 0.4 0.5 0.1
35-44 0.4 0.1 0.1 1.8 0.5 0.3
45-54 1.7 0.4 0.2 1.9 0.5 0.5
55-64 2.5 1.2 0.5 4.9 1.4 0.7
65-74 4.9 2.6 0.1 8.9 3.3 0.8
75-84 6.2 10.6 2.4 20.8 6.3 0.4
85+ 12.6 30.1 8.6 25.7 19.7 10.5
Healthy Life Expectancy • LE and HLE, Men, 2001
Gap LE – HLE decreases with age (13 years at age 15, 3 years at age 85)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
15 25 35 45 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
LE
HLE
61.1
47.6
5.11.8
Healthy Life Expectancy (2)• LE and HLE, Women, 2001
Gap LE – HLE decreases with age (18 years at age 15, 3.6 years at age 85)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
15 25 35 45 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
LE
HLE
67.3
48.8
6.4
2.8
Healthy Life Expectancy (3)• Percentage of years in good health in total LE (or : HLE / LE
*100)
Decrease with age: elderly people can expect to spend bigger part of remaining years in bad health
Higher for men than for women (except oldest age group)
30
40
50
60
70
80
15 25 35 45 55 60 65 70 75 80 85
men
women
43
36
78
73
age
HLE compression / expansionMen Women
15 0.22 1.98
25 -0.14 1.97
40 0.13 1.51
50 -0.24 0.60
60 -0.22 0.26
65 -0.44 -0.06
70 -0.50 -0.49
75 -0.35 -0.47
80 -0.91 -0.83
85 -0.94 -0.04
Disability Free LE
• LE and DFLE, MEN , 2001
DFLE decreases with age, gaps narrows with age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
LE
DFLE
75.3
56.1
3.6
0.3
Disability Free LE (2)
• LE and DFLE, women, 2001
Decrease with age, gap narrows with age
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
LE
DFLE
81.7
60.8
4.4
1.1
Disability Free LE (3)• Percentage of years without disability in LE (or DFLE / LE
*100)
Decrease with ageSimilar for men and women, except higher age groups
(despite higher LE for women)
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
80
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
men
women
74
35-37
DFLE: compression / expansion Age Men Women
0 0.32 1.51
15 0.24 1.21
25 0.06 1.57
40 0.61 1.21
50 0.65 0.15
60 0.90 -0.50
70 0.04 -1.25
75 -0.08 -1.31
80 -0.69 -0.95
85 -0.53 -2.03