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WORKING PAPER SERIES NO 927 / AUGUST 2008 MONETARY STABILISATION IN A CURRENCY UNION OF SMALL OPEN ECONOMIES by Marcelo Sánchez

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Page 1: Working PaPer SerieS · 2008. 8. 14. · g9hid g

Work ing PaPer Ser i e Sno 927 / auguSt 2008

Monetary StabiliSation in a currency union of SMall oPen econoMieS

by Marcelo Sánchez

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WORKING PAPER SER IESNO 927 / AUGUST 2008

In 2008 all ECB publications

feature a motif taken from the

10 banknote.

MONETARY STABILISATION IN A

CURRENCY UNION OF SMALL

OPEN ECONOMIES 1

by Marcelo Sánchez 2

This paper can be downloaded without charge fromhttp://www.ecb.europa.eu or from the Social Science Research Network

electronic library at http://ssrn.com/abstract_id=1194364.

1 We acknowledge comments received from Daniel Heymann and at a presentation at the European Central Bank.

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect those of the European Central Bank. The usual disclaimer applies.

2 European Central Bank, Kaiserstrasse 29, D-60311, Frankfurt am Main, Germany; Fax:

+49 69 1344 7062; Phone: +49 69 1344 6531; e-mail: [email protected]

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© European Central Bank, 2008

Address Kaiserstrasse 29 60311 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Postal address Postfach 16 03 19 60066 Frankfurt am Main, Germany

Telephone +49 69 1344 0

Website http://www.ecb.europa.eu

Fax +49 69 1344 6000

All rights reserved.

Any reproduction, publication and reprint in the form of a different publication, whether printed or produced electronically, in whole or in part, is permitted only with the explicit written authorisation of the ECB or the author(s).

The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily refl ect those of the European Central Bank.

The statement of purpose for the ECB Working Paper Series is available from the ECB website, http://www.ecb.europa.eu/pub/scientific/wps/date/html/index.en.html

ISSN 1561-0810 (print) ISSN 1725-2806 (online)

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Abstract 4

Non-technical summary 5

1 Introduction 8

2 A review of the literature 12

2.1 Monetary stabilisation in a currency union 13

2.2 Interaction between the single monetary policy and national fi scal policies 18

3 A simple model of monetary union stabilisation 23

3.1 Autonomous monetary policy 25

3.2 The currency union 28

3.3 Relative performance 34

4 Monetary-fi scal interaction 42

5 Monetary-fi scal-wage interaction 53

5.1 The monetary autonomy case 57

5.2 Monetary union stabilisation 60

5.3 Welfare implications 67

6 Conclusions 74

Appendix 80

References 83

Tables and fi gures 91

European Central Bank Working Paper Series 96

CONTENTS

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916 “Optimal reserve composition in the presence of sudden stops: the euro and the dollar as safe haven currencies”

by R. Beck and E. Rahbari, July 2008.

917 “Modelling and forecasting the yield curve under model uncertainty” by P. Donati and F. Donati, July 2008.

918 “Imports and profitability in the euro area manufacturing sector: the role of emerging market economies”

by T. A. Peltonen, M. Skala, A. Santos Rivera and G. Pula, July 2008.

919 “Fiscal policy in real time” by J. Cimadomo, July 2008.

920 “An investigation on the effect of real exchange rate movements on OECD bilateral exports” by A. Berthou,

July 2008.

921 “Foreign direct investment and environmental taxes” by R. A. De Santis and F. Stähler, July 2008.

922 “A review of nonfundamentalness and identification in structural VAR models” by L. Alessi, M. Barigozzi and

M. Capasso, July 2008.

923 “Resuscitating the wage channel in models with unemployment fluctuations” by K. Christoffel and K. Kuester,

August 2008.

924 “Government spending volatility and the size of nations” by D. Furceri and M. Poplawski Ribeiro, August 2008.

925

August 2008.

926 “Euro area money demand and international portfolio allocation: a contribution to assessing risks to price

stability” by R. A. De Santis, C. A. Favero and B. Roffia, August 2008.

927 “Monetary stabilisation in a currency union of small open economies” by M. Sánchez, August 2008.

“Flow on conjunctural information and forecast of euro area economic activity” by K. Drechsel and L. Maurin,

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