Working Paper No. 9

Aaron T ornell

July 1997

Rational Atrophy:

The US Steel Industry

Rational Atrophy: The US Steel Industry Aaron Tomell

July 1997 Productivity

ABSTRACT

During the seventies and eighties the US steel industry received trade protection. However,

these rents were not used to improve competitiveness. Instead, they were reflected in higher wages

and a greater share of profits invested in sectors not related to steel. Moreover, the steel industry

failed to adopt technological innovations on a timely basis and was displaced by the minimills. We

rationalize these puzzling outcomes using a dynamic game between workers and firms.

Aaron Tomell Department of Economics Harvard University Cambridge, MA 02138 andNBER atomell@harvard.edu

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pr Hp2GqJou IIJq br.o:GGq 4O I1p2GC4JOIJ 35(2)) JJJG LGfGL uo JIJGLGçGq in qGcGLmJIJcc!oIJ o jLqG bLoGqioIJ fIr 2fCrbIl2JU OGL OJIiiOIJ GoiJGGb 2i1C pG 2p-pJLJu1r 2oJ1rJou joouoçflGJbWTIJ (J3sf) IJJOGJ O bLO4GCOIJ OL fJG 2!ICJJ c IIL!II III1(41OIJ (AITJ.J pG qGLJAGq2OCJ( O 4IG -G(4OJ. MG MiJJ ir r 2JmbJJJJGq AGL2IOIJ o cp; CL0m11 niqJIJ 2JIp2GCçJOIJ MG MJIJ qGLJAG & t&L!14. IiIJccJOU MpJcp 12 JIJ(;LG&21IJ 111 4JJG (;&biç&J

3J Jj1G J,OjiçiCIj /'[1LJG

& ornbGç!ç!iG I&pOL 1JJJLJCGç

oj pc iIJqJr2cLA MJJGLGIIJ llJ9lJ&GL2 &/G &jj COIJLOJ Lip2 &iq MOLJCGL2 &LG JJILGq JIJ

i & pEçGL qaciibion o fl JJJqJI24LA JJ&u c qcLJbJouMG coJJ2TqGL p&4 JJG cp&L&GçGLJ&JOIJ o & bLoGcçGq mqIr2cLA 1AGIJ pA GdJI&-

qo IJO J1GG (;OIJ2JJIUG cjJG!L G1J1LG M&G pijj &uq (M &CC1JUJiJTG 2&AiU2111J10H2 GIJ &bbjiq o MO4CGL (rng) (.&H G 1UçGLbLGGq & *cAiu MOLJ(GL2lPG AOL&(;!A O 111110112 j)A TIJAG2l1ll JGJJJ III OJJGL 2GCOL2 OJJ O JG LG&CJJ o tJJGEd1I4!011 () (;&J)4JILG2 I2PG JqG& 4JJ& IIJ&U&GL2 C&IJ i)L0(X4 JJ4JJLG LGAGIIIIG2 L0IIJ

= () +() — = (g)&(.Gq pA G&Cp boMGI-poJqGL 12cp J—2qoL ;01J21111JG oujA ooq TV 0Jj0M2 IJJ& OIIJGL &((.1HhJJIj&10IT Gdli&V!OIJLoJrb2 j,pi porq AJGJq2 & jJxGq L&G o LGVJILIJ . III Vt,L11J2 o iooq !JJ(G ¶fiGIJ2 !IJHJ &IJ IIJVGLIJ&V1OU&JJA VL1G pouq MJJJCp 12 OJIV O LG&GJ1 °L VJJG 0JJGL 1 — J

JJJG &moiiu &bbLobLi&çGq pA G&CJJ LoIib (s) (Mfl G COU21JG OL JIJAG2VGq0JJGL b0MGL-pojqGL2

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FGvc!U S 6 LG&4GL VI1&JJ VMO &Jj0M2 OL JJG bo22pJTA M&G IJGOfJ&çJOIJ2 &LG

qi2cL1pJJ4Gq fd (jiIJqGIr(j2 JJJG 2IIIJJ O j&ç VMO obViou2 (oLLG2boIJq2 40tJJG 1J 2G(40L IIJAG2IG(J JIJ &IJ &JVGLJJ&JAG VGqJIJoJoA OIIV O I1IHOU2 LG&CJJ OL

O ¶J'jJO(;TtG bLojç2 [j — }t() — mJ(i): C&I1 pG LGJUAG2cGq HIIHJJOLJ p& jIG b0MGL o 2G M&G pijj IJ( MpiJo VPG IIJ&U1IGL jJ&2 VJJG boMGL

OIJG &GIJV J2 ¶ CGJJVL&j!Gq iirnon &uq VIJG OVPGL 12 VJJG LIIJ UJ&1J&GL JJJJG&bbLobu&1ou o toirb 10 ILIVGLbLGV jJ12 Gd11&çT0IJ IGV ' = 5 &uq 2iIbbO2G

MJJGLG [i — 'JL() qGJJoG2 LGJiGIJJJG2 IIJJJJI2 JoppAiIJ GXbGU2G2 &uq () GIJOVG2= [I - ]L() - > u) (3)

JJJGLGOLG &;CJJIllhIpfç!OIJ GdJ1&10IJ 0L JJG c&biV&J 2OCJ 113 1J-2G(4OL 12 .JAGI1

(fI)JccJ POCICjOppAi coijmhioij I 14 '°'iq IcL JJG LEffJ4 4JJI J !IJ dIGJJGL JIICOIJJG priç ¶Jø jJG bLJ(;G o IJGL coIInmbçoIJ p2JGç H° qq!IJ JJJflJ1IrCçIrIG2 () JJG

cIJ joppki ¶J() c:c)JJI1IJrnq IflIJfT Cd11LG IJIJGL irnhoL dLLL Mo!lIq J!JCLG&2G hot oiJjI

ill 1I1J6 JJ(; (olJçLip1Iou 1HJ(4JOI1 uhiI?4 pG GJJpJG IJJ 4JJG 6IJGIIIh14 OJGI. T (.OIJfLipJJ4iOIJ iIJqlrcG2 JJG bo1Jc?iJnrJc;L o bniciIc

111112ç HJXTW16 po loiuç b&?o o jopp?ç nq bopc?mrJGL jnrqIJJJJ2 2G 4G LT( o mncrmic p bcXo GGOIJ pG GdlHJIpL!IIIJJ hLTCGr niq oulA u i 2i2p oIJoMIJ oIIL conqou E!L2c p6 boJ1cAm6L

CLO22IThflJ irJJq flGJI)llJ&IJ () po ((X &) &u GdlnppLJIrm bnL= [b() — — (j)

111 pG '-2G(4OL IJJrt VJAG 22J1J1JG cJJ I.GA(;JJIIG GIJ6L1G p? !JIJb0LV 12 LTJT26LL6q o 6IJt2

= ) + + ) + ((ioY OjJOM2 JJG bojJcImcJL)2 OJ)1G(4!A6 L11T1(;!OIJ (;&IJ I)G L6ML6IJCOIJcL!PJIc!01J2 LGCG1AG(J ¶rIJq OH jJG HGJJ p6iIJ O JG AOGL2 irppçirçi (3f) JHfOvpr boJJc?mGr bLop&pJj1ç? O pGJIJ LGGJGCI2Gq qGbGIJq2 ou bojiiccjriiq /GJLG JIJ JJG '-2(X;OL JJJ12 OplGcpAG pJIJciOIJ !2 (;OJJ2i2l(IJV M1p 4JJG TqGFMJJGLG ( 1116 rJILG2 JJG IIJJLJIH1J L4G OI 2I1p2ç!çII4iO1J p(;mGGIJ I)OJi4i(;fJ coIJLipIr4JoIJ2

(2 io)

GOIJ2çiçJI4G TOO\0 o ioiu bobizj&çioiLOW JJG JOpp?d2 rnq (JJ Ifl!Ji4 r44nIJGq pA 6IJ4 !' JJG —2G(4OL R4J0JJJG bOJiCAllJGL>2 op1G(;iA6 12 ¶ JjI1JG1OIJ O pG boJJc!crJ COIJcL1pI1l1OJJ apG LGGGAG2

= — 'B(b()) (3a)

M6 I22JIHJG 4JJG JOppAi2 601J2111U62 OIJJA ooq ruq IJJI 1IJ OJ)]6(4A6 ur1JGV!OLLI)OJi(AllJfJCGL 2G2 JIJJbOLf ILJLJ £(i;)•cLipI1c!OU M}JJ(JJ 12 ¶1 11IJG4JOIJ o Iiubo2Gq !mbOL (X() riq 4JJ6JJOL!OIF D1IL!IJ Et(;JJ hGLToq fG jOppAi2 OjjGL2 bopuXuwJcGL i bojiçicrj con-4GGIOI1 ruq JJG -2G(4OL JOppA!2V po pJIA2 i op bJA6L2 JrrAG ¶T oIJG-bGLioq

JJJJGLG JLG 1)pIAGL2 in IJJG bopçrcrj nJtLjwc: boJJcAm&JGL HJO 26JJ2 bLo-

9a1oII lo s rii1sij nj i irI1 11ni2E1 .9vil9n-non 9d 1irni Efloq 1iiddoI sill iisil.t brie fIoiq Iuiol usd1 9imix.m 19)1Jm7i1oq 9111 bm liddo1 sill :m9Io9rlT

.91111 )fh')9qa 01 nibioxi airlquica silt sbivib l&{l nirrnrai [v + fj*c = i 91IIl913lIffLt3f1I 10 9)fl )11291110b sift 9MII2

ai boasuqxs sd iu; iioiiibrio' tufl sill s1diilhiisusBib i noibrnrl noi.fijdhlrio sill noilibiio illod riinidmo .0 = + at floilibno' 1)flo9 sill bn 0 =

bai fIoia91qxs ii1l nil;1iithd1c2 . = a asilqmi il)u{w () = tirlJ sv&1 sw liIi wo11o1 Ii .(0 = iioilibno laud si{l iii - — — =

—I *1: _l 0= — -- — — + =

ai noii'iiiiñ 11n;l niiriudiliirps sill aicr1T

(:1.:) —

a] = (A)

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'.9aW) 911.1 i aiilt 9iII11J 15LBfff\M10q sill svisi lairm iioilirdiuliio sill hull asilqrni iioilibxio buiill silT

IF)ir{W I i bsbuisuaib 919W a9)1I319131q Pdd01 sill h ai lb IIsw ai lai3sl Ii; —slA .xoilirdiuliio:. OH SViSY)1 bli;ow bin; *( = isa biniow usLi;nri1oq sill 9a8'

sill 113111 smIJaaB Iliw 9W •(*X)\Jn < (\I + () :ai iioiiibno ainli 11ini131d riT .noiijJoa jnjjisd ilaal4 i1J wiiaJi b9fIiBido 9d 11133 noibrwl lIiij1 1J3Ijifl 13 313111 s3oI4 l9blo 3ifl 911T .birnixj3cr1 i (\1 • (5)q\J = ()\J t3IJbolq 9113 313111 O W3OII3 9113 b1113 ü

9Th noi3ibf1oD (f\ 1\ I (14.c)

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1 L!±L.1 Ji (cAt) '3311W91 1113) ')W — ()kç— =

(I.) —1 = + = [—1] —1

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ai noft)nhJ1 rioi diirio fflufiIdiIiIJIY-) e)fLt ii{ 3s sw iioi

(1g) ()*c[ + = (1 iioiirdiino Ltiii!oq siLl :bsfl2ii i floLfibrroa rLtrirol siLl ,t6rLt )F)srF) sw

(1.t) (ftC) niU smoxii oi aaiddo1 siLl nii{i iswol sd tairm (€) .0 < r — ] + = (c)1 — (q)i hut 911J3f1 9W (TI.) bw3

sms3 nois1iimijA 9rIT . -iswoq ii SiLt fl0fflh 9fflJ 1IoutBIIJfHhJ99J 9iiruurb silt svLo2 sw noibs2 2idfl iii

of b9t')nf291 911 89irf1v lstsflI . ioibiifsi niwo11ol rLl soqmi sW zrsbfot{ bno92 biu svihiaoq wli ai luiisl fioqmi mlrildililcp9 sift irrLt tiil ,91118119 is,tsi ai asicrhi1irrum iol bcu3msb 9ita&mob 41q niiiiidiliirps sill rioth J13r1h

(ftC) IJIISVSI 101 fIoi8BEnqxs siLt iiuLf 02 rIout)1rbo1q muLl .asici noitthiqoiqqii aisb1oi1-iswoq lo smi st{t hiinil sw 1laiJ .asi1qqi 8w1J

!)!1J 1jas'sji i ri (CI .C) inoil awollol Ii noul')nia91 121I1 sill o1 1YUSI illiVI 2i )VLfi80q sd O. 1111J3t troqmi mirhdiliirps sr{i iol fIodibrIo9 i11919ffi1r2

(8i.C)

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(eI.C) — — > [ — { (0)

.ti hull aa (dc) ii noilibilo9 taifl sifT .(.C) iii bsnfIsb oii Cl bm i 91911W bsta sldioq owl hi miLhiw 911 •lairm *)o12 lutiquv Iot)s8-I\f siLl 0 = s smut au ti 21 Asola thl[qw) silt 11911W trLl 2siIqmi noilibrios biio9s2 silT .291r1Jw shib

IIod9ubolq utrull isbsi 2i 2slzrlsthirrmm lo noibqrrm2nos )iJ2EfiI0b bnirod isqqn 21 noft)irhOlq bii A 111 iiassissb 81 Hoitqmlrarlos ssni2 ((II .) bn (01 .) 992) . Ith iol ()p < ()' t1l 8woIlol Ii \ iii iI1819i91Ii

1119191119111 81 19912 of J)9B191 iou 291liVil9 111 ni,l29vni 1ii11 jshi 9111 911riqi) oT iOl952—J\. sill iii filIJi9l lo stBl WB1 siLl bulJ smnau sw 11iqmo 1ssi ii iol

4 bnod bsbiii 11iioitiiisiii r1f no 9tIcI iasis4ni 9LI4 xur{i isi Ii 1no biu Ii ablorl noi4qmrraai ir1T lo alsvsl JIB

(O.) —

I] >

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+ = ((4)\)i � ()w > 0 —

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I—n

l noiiuiiiqoiqq •4ijo sun 04 ai bincod isqqu ii nIaoqini lo saoqiuq sifT \j9f14 4B114 oa fIif1 14Hsi)ffihr fsa sm no abninod i')qqrJ silT .s4i s4infini sea) siisurb 03 4irodui 9Th sw iriiiiidiliirps ioiis.irii sill noLI3 nibriid 4on s ((.)

niiniidiliiips stl4 rii4ii4iladic .ein 3uni3rPb sill lo noi4inloa sf13 o4 inir4 sw wol/I ,4irf3 awollol 3j (V.t) rioitnrps croutImrrirni 8'10t3sk-l'i sri4 o4ni (1.) Jiu4

— ___ = — I] = — ) + () = ( —

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Iii nia13s1)ni ai 11iu4 miciidifiirps sif4 sinissd ai aii{T .*oIR IB4iqw sf14 iii X9VfI0) Li4iqs ni 4aixs slina o4 ainin4si Hi8B9T)ni l81l4 asilqmi i{)Lrlw Asota IB4iqJ3) 9114

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.lJ34iq) lo alsvsl rJid 3s niaJ39r)sb 3xrd th3iqn lo alsvsl wol d rIs)IB3 aiioi3n sill no abnscjsb isbloil-iswoq rfss lo 14oq sill qii4sa air{i iii

noinii siLt d bsssrni ai hid sw srl4 Ii sn4ani ioI .aisblorf-iswoq isrl4o srl4 l s3ici 4tism3asvixisi siLt ni44sa d biurI isillo siLt nO .11th aJftoiq aisb1oiJsmi1a

S

iob-I"1 91li hi IJiqJ') 3nhiiil lo 191J91 wol i sMJbni nm I3bIorIsi&Ia 19v91 wol .9111fl11 rf ni hJ1tx9 o s1dm 'id Iliw noiinj Hid 'imw su{ 9Mrb91 111w I1)!dW

'isw 0IJ ir1 i 1'ibom )iIo(I sbi 191110 bm (lIUISd ILI1 I P)9Wl9(l flhI919Thh A .11011111 Iirhswoq d iilli lrrd !fIoifIath 'ivdd9qmo'i m Iii b911i11fl919b Ion i hid fF)Lr{W 1s'ii 1.B f1)Ir 'iuitjrbni lo 9i i19i')JE1J11k) 1iitii'i tii ')(f o irLf isbirio 9W

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fuLrIofhimm3H sirliv f1I991(1 911 T .qiro1 1{9h') iol 9110 ni'ildoiq fLRiIIOfIiflLBH n qJJoi lo

— — \1 + ]A + =

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anoLfJnrps 1101 fI11f1IUY)J srLt of bnoqa9nos misf Ijiitf I I)ilJ I)I1O')9 'irIT .a9ldsilsv bsaoqrni noif'iuifn sr{f of brloqa9nos rnisf owf fast 911T .19vut'isq291

, bnm \ iol

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.iishiiib-ioiaiiL fXI oi H9i 1B1 wo11i OH oh a9i IJ31t vo*uiM

1ofa IJi.tiqJfl k19'flJ 1I01IIflI0) 91L1 lo fl0it)HJI1 )uIJcIb3Irp 91J *3i)i1O(I

(1.t) j = + = (\) c 9a€11f lo asir1w sr!f 9fIimIslsb ns11i sW .afnsbffl9o IIWOIDIHJJ 9Th \ 911.1 91911W

.alTI9Idolq nBino.lIimH c 9th 9vloa 1a1Jo9ru3ifIJmia ir1.i atf19i)ffl9o b9nirrIlsi9bnhc .19111 01-lB 9110 of aiioqai fasd 9Th farhi B9i9i11f ic lo i i bnfl sw w aitli nI

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iii 9t11 noifthiqoiqq usd1 ls ifI9.B 1li miriudilirups •ioiis.lrui ru ruT .smsutxs ru noLt surif iou i ir{T .(1.t) iii bsiuiEleh io noiia111qoiqqf sill lo ioiistni sf11

.muiiidiliuips 101101111 9rLt 110 9f190fI0) Iliw SW I9qq airLt iii .rnirhdiliuips 9rfl91fX9 asiThbrmod 91ff t a9tBl fIoL.fJwrqolqqJ3 'iisilf isa fHS,Ji Bcr(tiIiIfp9 smsitxs [Ii 93fI12 .iniasusiiii ai 1iim 9?thIn ol bsnimusisb sm abinuod sill won lo iosr1.i bii SW

9111 nir{fuw muiudihiicps ioristhui 9IJ1f111 at sustli ilf xibnisqq 91-It In wotla 9W mlriudifilcp9 10119ff!! sill usvooioM iii bsiisqa asif-)iula uiJ1bJ3uJp lo aafih

'd nsvi ai rniiiidiliiips aiuiT .

(noil sadi;a IXSII 99a) SIdf!la J)flf )i1l9m1TIya at

+ (f):A'_— = (().) (D.)

, [(f)c + ()A] ) =

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() '{'- [ - I] + (' } = (A — '" oA —

(8.C) ()\ —

[(O) + (O)A] —" = ()\ SW faui1 .(8)-(.t) anoiIfIrps 101 110111111111 9fflO shivouq Ihiw SW IX9M

quroi of 11111191 lo 9tB1 rIoii13nqo1qq13-faoq 5111 siulsU nlOil13IIpS isbiaiio' anioi.i13iuqolqq13 sri I 1o Isru 1o1oa$fk sill iii qirou d hsvis')isq 11111191 lo 91131 SIll a13

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