working paper 3 - tu dortmund...working paper 3 megacities dar es salaam trunk infrastructure and...

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Working Paper 3

Megacities Dar es Salaam

Trunk Infrastructure and Urban Growth - Managing Rapid Urbanisation in Poverty

in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Workshop 25 - 26 January 2007 in

Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Sponsored by:

Universität Dortmund Fakultät Raumplanung

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Imprint

Workshop Working Paper 3

Team of authors

Megacities project team:

Dipl.-Ing. Timo Basteck (UNIDO)

Dipl.-Ing. Alexandra Hill (UNIDO)

Dipl.-Ing. Tanja Hühner (UNIDO)

Prof. Dr. Wilbard Kombe (UCLAS)

Prof. Dr. Volker Kreibich (UNIDO)

Dipl.-Ing. Christian Lindner (UNIDO)

Dr. John Lupala (UCLAS)

Daniel Eliwaha Msangi MSc. (UCLAS)

Dr.-Ing. Wolfgang Scholz (UNIDO)

Layout and editorial work

Cand.-ing. Jasmin Metzler (UNIDO)

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Table of contents

List of figures and tables.................................................................................... IV

List of acronyms .................................................................................................. V

1 General information on the workshop..................................................... 1

2 Workshop day one ..................................................................................... 2 2.1 Presentations ...........................................................................................................2 2.1.1 Background of the Megacities project 3 2.1.2 Spatial growth of Dar es Salaam and issues from the first task force meeting 3 2.1.3 Energy as a key element for sustainable development of the Greater Johannesburg

Region 5 2.1.4 City structure and development: Driving forces and development patterns 5 2.1.5 Future urban growth of informal settlements in Dar es Salaam: Options from a recent

survey 7 2.1.6 Residential location choices in informal settlements of Dar es Salaam city 8 2.1.7 Future expansion and infrastructure development: Simulation of future urban growth 9 2.2 Results of the plenary discussion ..........................................................................11 2.2.1 Consolidation of basemap 12 2.2.2 Scaling up the Megacities project at government level 12 2.2.3 Enhance dissemination on Megacities project 12 2.2.4 Problems hindering cross-sector coordination 12 2.2.5 The need to harmonise population statistics 12 2.2.6 Other factors to influence population growth in Dar es Salaam 12 2.3 Future development scenario: Possible projects for phase II................................13

3 Workshop day two................................................................................... 14 3.1 Possible project areas for phase II: Luguruni........................................................14 3.2 Approaches for the Megacities project .................................................................14 3.3 Infrastructure provision and cost recovery............................................................15

4 Conclusions............................................................................................... 16

5 Appendices................................................................................................ 17

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List of figures and tables

Figure 1.1: Participants of Workshop day one..................................................................1 Figure 2.1: Plenum discussion Workshop day one ...........................................................2 Figure 2.2: DSM land-use changes 1982-2002.................................................................6 Figure 2.3: Presentation of the survey results ...................................................................8 Table 2.1: Factors influencing residential location choices ..............................................9 Figure 2.4: Presentation of the simulation model ...........................................................10 Figure 2.5: Discussion on options for phase II................................................................11

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List of acronyms

CBD Central Business District CIUP Community Infrastructure Upgrading Programme CWSSP Community Water Supply and Sanitation Project DART Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit DAWASA Dar es Salaam Water and Sanitation Authority DAWASCO Dar es Salaam Water and Sewerage Corporation DCC Dar es Salaam City Council ESRI Environmental Systems Research Institute GIS Geographical Information System GTZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Technische Zusammenarbeit IER Institute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of Energy,

University of Stuttgart, IRPUD Institute of Spatial Planning, University of Dortmund ITC International Institute for Geo-Information Science and

Earth Observation MLHSD Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development MoA Memorandum of Agreement PMO-RALG Ministry of Regional Administration and Local Government in the

Prime Minister’s Office PSC Project Steering Committee SUDP Strategic Urban Development Plan TANESCO Tanzania Electric Supply Company TANROAD Tanzania National Road Agency TCCIA Tanzania Chamber for Commerce, Industry and Agriculture UASU Urban Authorities Support Unit, Sustainable Cities Programme

Tanzania UCLAS University Collage of Lands and Architectural Studies UDEM Urban Development and Environmental Management UN United Nations UNIDO Universität Dortmund

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1 General information on the workshop

The workshop was held in Palm Beach Hotel on 25th-26th of January. The invited par-ticipants included delegates from DAWASA, TANESCO, TANROADS, the Ministry of Infrastructure Development, Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements Development, Ministry of Water, Dar es Salaam City Council and the three municipali-ties, the World Bank as well as UCLAS and the University of Dortmund. Furthermore GTZ and IER, University of Stuttgart, were represented. (See Figure 1.1)

Day one started with the registration of workshop participants. The workshop was opened by Prof. Dr. Wilbard Kombe (UCLAS). He also briefed the participants that the Megacities project started a year ago and that a cross-sectoral task force team for the project, which had its first meeting in December 2006, has been established.

Thereafter, he stated the objectives of the workshop as follows: – To share with stakeholders findings from various activities undertaken so far includ-

ing task force deliberations and surveys conducted among experts; – to present and discuss urban development models, scenarios and options for the

growth of Dar es Salaam; – to deliberate on the potential growth framework for the city of Dar es Salaam; and – to identify and deliberate upon potentials and pilot projects for phase II of the pro-

ject (implementation). The opening remarks were followed by a self–introduction of the participants (for names and contact details of day one participants see Appendix 1).

Figure 1.1: Participants of Workshop day one

Source: Own photograph

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2 Workshop day one

On day one of the workshop the analysis of urban growth in Dar es Salaam and the out-puts of the simulation model developed by the research team were emphasised. Several presentations were given (Section 2.1) followed by discussions on emerging issues (see Figure 2.1), mainly focusing on possible growth and planning scenarios (Section 2.2) providing input for the future project work (Section 2.3). For day one workshop pro-gramme see Appendix 2.

Figure 2.1: Plenum discussion Workshop day one


2.1 Presentations The following subsections give an overview of the presentations held on day one of the workshop. Thematic subjects presented were: a) The background of the Megacities project (Subsection 2.1.1). b) Spatial expansion of Dar es Salaam and key issues emerging from the task force

deliberations (Subsection 2.1.2). c) Energy as a key element for sustainable development of the Greater Johannesburg

Region (Subsection 2.1.3). d) City structure and development – Driving forces and development patterns (Subsec-

tion 2.1.4). e) Future urban growth in Dar es Salaam: Views and opinions of professionals and

practitioners (Subsection 2.1.5). f) Preferential locations of informal settlers in Dar es Salaam (Subsection 2.1.6). g) Future expansion and infrastructure development in Dar es Salaam: Preliminary

results from the simulation model (Subsection 2.1.7).

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2.1.1 Background of the Megacities project

A summary of the Megacities project was given by Prof. Dr. Volker Kreibich (UNIDO) who started by reminding the participants that within the research programme of the German government “Research for the Sustainable Development of the Megacities of Tomorrow” 16 projects are implemented in emerging megacities worldwide; of which four are located in Africa. The Dar es Salaam Megacities project is located within the Faculty of Spatial Planning at the University of Dortmund (UNIDO), Germany, and is being implemented in collaboration with UCLAS and FICHTNER, Germany's largest independent firm of consulting engineers of international standing, specialising in infra-structure development.

The focus of the project is to establish mutual links between trunk infrastructure de-velopment and urban growth with the intention to identify access points for strategic interventions into rapid urban growth under poverty. The first phase comprising empiri-cal studies and analyses will end in June 2007. The second phase is envisaged to run for nine (3 x 3) years. This will be the implementation phase of the project. (For the whole presentation see Appendix 3)

2.1.2 Spatial growth of Dar es Salaam and issues from the first task force meeting

Spatial expansion of the city of Dar es Salaam

This presentation was made by Dr. John Lupala (UCLAS). He mapped the historical development of the city and outlined recent and past spatial growth and population den-sity trends.

With regard to the spatial expansion of Dar es Salaam, Dr. Lupala noted that in 1891 the city had 4,000 inhabitants, a population density of 45 people per hectare, and had extended to two kilometres from the Indian Ocean to the hinterland. By 1945, the city population had increased to 61,000 denoting a density of 130 people per hectare. The major growth areas were along the four major arterial roads of Morogoro, Bagamoyo, Pugu (now Nyerere) and Kilwa Roads. In 1963, the growth radius had extended to six kilometres, while the population had increased to 151,000 and the gross population den-sity was 49 people per hectare. By 1978, the city had expanded to 14 kilometres outside the CBD accommodating 843,100 people; the density stood at 74 people per hectare. During that time, the first ring road was built to link Bagamoyo, Morogoro, Pugu (now Nyerere) and Kilwa Roads. In 1991 the city had extended to18 kilometres, while the population increased to 1.5 million and the gross density increased to 78 people per hectare. By 2001, the city had grown to a radius of 30 kilometres accommodating a population of 2.5 million. The gross population density amounted to 52 people per hec-tare, whereas the population density in per-urban areas was relatively low compared to inner-city ones.

Key issues from the task force meetings

In his presentation, Dr. John Lupala presented deliberations from the task force meeting emphasizing the critical issues as: a) Lack of coordination between sectoral utility agencies, municipal governments and

other actors. Coordination among agencies is only done during emergencies, sug-gesting that actors are aware and appreciate the synergic effects of cross-sectoral coordination.

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b) Lack of a coherent spatial (land use) plan including mechanisms for cross-sectoral coordination. He added that the Strategic Urban Development Plan (SUDP) pre-pared by DCC was yet to be approved by the Ministry of Lands, Housing and Hu-man Settlements Development (MLHSD).

c) Investment on infrastructure services, especially water supply, roads and electricity, were the determinants and catalysts of internal migration, housing densification and growth of the city.

Other problems associated with un-coordinated provision of infrastructure services and urban growth include: – reluctance (among institutions/actors) to share information; – lack of seriousness to sectorally coordinate plans; actions and decisions; – subsisting quasi-customary land tenure system in informal settlements leading to

complications in accessing land (way leaves) for basic infrastructure services; – lack of an integrated plan to harmonise sectoral plans; – over-emphasis on a top-down approach and sectoral inclination in policies formula-

tion and execution of programmes/projects. With respect to the need to improve the situation, he pointed out that the task force team needs to improve the situation to promote partnerships, as neither the (local and central) governments nor utility providers or individual land owners can alone alleviate increas-ing poverty and the deterioration and deprivation of basic infrastructure services. To ensure good governance, the key actors in urban development have to collaborate.

Potential structure for cross-sectoral coordination

The participants were also informed that during the first task force meeting, three cases depicting good examples of efforts to force cross-coordination were presented. It was suggested that these may provide a good entry point for the Megacities project to build on. The three cases refer to experience from DAWASA in the on-going basic infrastruc-ture improvement in Manzese, the Community Infrastructure Upgrading Programme (CIUP), and the newly established Urban Development and Environmental Manage-ment (UDEM) programme. a) DAWASA case:

Participants were informed that DAWASA, DAWASCO, the Dar es Salaam City Council and the three Municipalities have managed to force collaboration in the execution of infrastructure improvement projects in low income residential areas in Manzese in Kinondoni Municipality. The need for coordination was driven by the logic that project costs will escalate due to destruction of roads or underground net-works arising from uncoordinated sectoral actions and decisions. In order to ensure compliance among the actors and institutions involved (DAWASCO, DAWASA and DCC) a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) signed by all parties had to be put in place. For the same purpose, a Project Steering Committee (PSC) drawing repre-sentatives from the key stakeholders and parties involved in infrastructure improve-ment and urban growth was established. Further, CIUP units of the Dar es Salaam City Council and the three municipalities of Kinondoni, Temeke and Ilala are repre-sented in the Steering Committee.

b) Community Infrastructure Upgrading Programme (CIUP) case: It was reported that under the CIUP the main tool and mechanism for coordination was the Project Steering Committee.

c) Urban Development and Environmental Management (UDEM) case: UDEM is intended to coordinate all donors and the central government funded sec-toral projects undertaken in local governments. Its main role is to receive applica-

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tions from local authorities, evaluate them and manage funds granted to local au-thorities for such projects including infrastructure development. UDEM is also re-sponsible for soliciting funds from the central government and donors to support lo-cal development projects (the focus is on environmental projects). The ultimate ob-jective is to coordinate planning and implementation of projects undertaken by local governments and their partners through funding from outside the council sources. UDEM will be effective in the next financial year (2006/2007).

(For the whole presentation see Appendix 4) Detailed comments made and questions raised during the task force committee meet-

ing were already presented in the first task force meeting report.

2.1.3 Energy as a key element for sustainable development of the Greater Johannesburg Region

Dr. Luger Eltrop presented the “EnerKey” project which is one of the 16 projects within the research programme of the German government “Research for the Sustainable De-velopment of the Megacities of Tomorrow” and also one of the four projects located in Africa.

“EnerKey” is dealing with energy provision in the context of the sustainable devel-opment of Greater Johannesburg, South Africa. (For the whole presentation see Appen-dix 5)

2.1.4 City structure and development: Driving forces and development patterns

Population growth

Dipl.-Ing. Alexandra Hill (UNIDO) highlighted a number of urban growth parameters. She pointed out that the population of Tanzania is projected to increase from 35 million in 2005 to 56 million in 2030. Most of the urban population is expected to more than double by 2030. Both small and larger towns are reported to exhibit high growth rates thus posing a real challenge in terms of managing urban growth. For instance, it was noted that between 1900 and 2000, the population of Dar es Salaam had increased by more than a hundred fold. While in 1950, Dar es Salaam accounted for 1.1 % of Tanza-nia’s total population; in 2005 it had increased to 7 % and is projected to reach 8.4 % in 2015.

Settlement pattern and land uses

The presenter further noted that the city is experiencing rapid growth in terms of land occupation as well as extensive densification and consolidation of the existing settle-ments. Urban growth is largely taking place along the main infrastructure lines, the main roads and without a land use plan. Notably, single storey buildings are the domi-nant type of housing. Although land consumption is high, there are still big chunks of undeveloped land.

Land-use changes and density development

According to the analysis of the aerial photos between 1992 and 2002, most of the new housing developments took place in informal settlements in the peri-urban areas. Ms Hill added that the southern coastline of Dar es Salaam city has emerged as a new focus for medium and high income housing and recreational facilities development. Along Bagamoyo Road, settlements are still sparsely built. Almost similar growth characteris-

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Figure 2.2: DSM land-use changes 1982-2002

Source: Hill/Lindner 2007

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tics are exhibited along Morogoro Road. The settlements are dispersed and located within a corridor of up to three kilometres from the trunk road. However, there are more mixed land uses mostly characterised by agriculture, residential and scattered commer-cial. The emerging residential-commercial centres along the major arterial roads of the city were said to be a response to the growing distance to the central district (CBD). (See Figure 2.2)

On the other hand, the settlement pattern along Pugu/Nyerere Road comprises densely built development especially south of the road. There are also many industries and residential settlements, especially between Pugu Road and Kilwa Road.

Population distribution 1992 and 1998

Furthermore, Ms Hill informed participants about trends in population distribution in the city. She noted that in analysing population distribution, the following observations can be made: a) Average population densities in many informal settlements are higher than in

planned residential areas. b) The longer the distance to CBD, the lower the population densities; planned residen-

tial areas are limited to a 25 km radius. c) There is a significant correlation between population density and distance to CBD. d) In the fringe areas, i.e. from 20 km distance outwards, (informal) settlements tend to

have a relatively stable population density. e) Settlements located far away from the main roads tend to sprawl rather than densify. (For the whole presentation see Appendix 6)

2.1.5 Future urban growth of informal settlements in Dar es Salaam: Options from a recent survey

Dipl.-Ing. Timo Basteck (UNIDO) (see Figure 2.3) pointed out that views and opinions of practitioners and professionals involved in urban planning and land administration collected in February 2006 suggest that for the next five years the settlements of Man-zese, Mbagala, Buguruni, Vingunguti, Bunju, Goba and Mbezi (Luisi, Juu) will exhibit the highest population growth. The respondents said that reasons for this expectation include access to better services; expected pull factors arising from the on-going up-grading of Manzese, Buguruni, Vingunguti through CIUP; relatively low land prices especially in Mbagala; availability of sufficient land (still relatively low density), and good accessibility owing to planned improvement of roads.

According to the interviews, most new settlements are likely to continue along or close to Morogoro Road, Bagamoyo Road, and on open land in between Morogoro and Bagamoyo Roads. Kigamboni area is also tipped to be a priority growth area.

The main reasons for development along Bagamoyo Road include expected pull forces resulting from the 20,000 plots project areas of Bunju, Boko and Mbweni, prox-imity to the main trunk road to Bagamoyo; availability of improved infrastructure (road network, water and power supply), good and attractive topography, and closeness to the beach will further accentuate urban growth. More or less, similar factors will account for new development close to Morogoro Road; however, in addition easy connection to upcountry regions and the ongoing DART project and relatively low land prices will catalyse settlement growth. Causes of new housing development for areas lying in be-tween Bagamoyo and Morogoro Roads include availability of infrastructure, especially

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roads linking Bagamoyo and Morogoro Roads, and improved water supply. Also, low land prices as well as on-going preparation of layout plans and survey of housing land. New development in Kigamboni may be influenced by on-going land surveying in the area, the 20,000 plots project, improved infrastructure (road network, water supply and power), attractive topography as well as closeness to the beach. (For the whole presenta-tion see Appendix 7)

Figure 2.3: Presentation of the survey results


2.1.6 Residential location choices in informal settlements of Dar es Salaam city

The presentation was given by Ms Tatu Limbumba Mtwangi, a UCLAS PhD candidate. She pointed out that the main objective is to understand the factors urban residents find important in deciding where to live or build in informal settlements. The aim was also to find out how the decisions to improve or constraint their livelihoods are made. The theoretical underpinnings of the study include social status, emerging multi-centres im-plying decline of the importance of the CBD, and family ties as important variables influencing residential location choices.

The reasons influencing residents to choose a certain informal settlement were ana-lysed along economic, social and environmental or physical considerations. She noted that inner, intermediate and peri-urban areas, proximity to either work, family or friends ranked high in terms of economic and social preferences. The preliminary observations are summarised in Table 2.1.

The choices made by settlers in the inner city informal settlement of Keko Ma-chungwa, an area for low income people, were mainly guided by the desire to reduce commuting costs. Many walk to and from their work places instead of paying bus fares. She gave a quote to illustrate the foregoing:

“The place is close to my working place (Kariakoo Market), therefore I easily walk to and from my work everyday. If I were living in a place like Mbagala, I would have been profiting the daladala business through paying the bus fares.”

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Table 2.1: Factors influencing residential location choices Area Reasons Economic Social Environmental/Physical Inner Proximity to work

place and functions of the CBD

Proximity to family and friends

Availability of water supply and other basic services, e.g. schools, health centres

Interme-diate

Proximity to work place Availability of land

Did not come up as im-portant

Attractive hilly area and cool micro-climate

Peri-urban

Availability of rooms and vacant land at low price

Proximity to family and friends Location in the direction of own village or town

Lack of flooding during rainy season. Possibility of farming ac-tivities

Source: Limbumba Mtwangi 2007

On the other side, in Makongo Juu, a settlement in the intermediate zone and which is occupied by predominantly middle and high income people, apart from high land prices and high costs for water due to severe water shortages, the choices of the area are rather guided by the desire for a spacious environment and cool fresh air. This is illustrated by the following quote:

“The air in Makongo is cool and this compensates for the water problems experi-enced”.

Another respondent said that: “The area is not congested and is situated on a hill giving a good view of the whole of the Dar es Salaam city. Furthermore, the area hosts heterogeneous ethnicity, accommodating people from many regions and therefore does not manifest the characteristics of ‘uswahilini’”.

In Mbagala Rangi Tatu, a peri-urban settlement occupied by low income households, choices are mainly influenced by the availability of cheap land and accommodation. Also prices for food are said to be generally lower than in many other areas. It was for instance pointed out that with less than TShs 500 (= less than half a dollar) one can get a meal. The majority of the people are living and working within Mbagala, mainly as petty traders and watchmen. Exploring the reasons for choosing Mbagala Rangi Tatu apart from proximity to working places, residents observed that they were more com-fortable because life is more interactive, community is full of homely feelings, i.e. more social interactions, and liveable. (For the whole presentation see Appendix 8)

2.1.7 Future expansion and infrastructure development: Simulation of future urban growth

Urban growth models in spatial planning

Dipl. Ing. Christian Lindner (UNIDO) (see Figure 2.4) emphasised that simulation models are used in order to analyse spatial development patterns, drivers and trends, to make forecasts about future spatial development, to test planning scenarios as well as to support decision making.

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Figure 2.4: Presentation of the simulation model


Important features of the land use simulation model

Based on ESRI ArcGIS software, the model has been used to analyse potential land use changes. The key variables used in the model are: current land-use, natural conditions (such as slope, terrain/roughness, proximity to rivers, land cover), accessibility includ-ing walking distance to nearest bus stop, distance to the CBD, distance to the nearest (tarmac) road, access to water supply (distance to water mains, public kiosks, major wells), land use at neighbourhood level as well as zoning status. A neighbourhood of six cells radius (i.e. 600m) was used for accounting of neighbourhood effects.

Provisional results

The input data used include land use data of 1998 depicting land use categories namely residential, other urban and vacant/agriculture; the road network indicating major road categories i.e. major roads, minor roads; a digital elevation model of about 20 metres resolution; constraint areas including rivers valleys flood plains, and swamp areas ex-cepted from development; as well as exogenous factors including floor space demand based on population projections.

Following the application of the model, preliminary results indicate that growth can be assumed to steadily continues taking place and consolidating along the major road axis of Kilwa, Pugu, Morogoro and Bagamoyo Roads. Overall, steady development is seen along Morogoro and Bagamoyo Roads during the early years and the land in be-tween the major road seem to be catching up in the later years. During the last year (9th year) of the simulation the following are observable: – Ribbon development alongside major roads extending to the adjoining into open

spaces; – Morogoro and Bagamoyo Roads as the main development axes; – limited development in the areas in between the arterial roads;

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– significant growth in the municipality of Temeke (if the Kigamboni bridge crossing Mzinga Creek will be built, the growth of the Kigamboni area will intensify).

Limitations of the model

Despite these plausible results, there are still major limitations to the model outputs to be considered. These include an incomplete database. Currently inputs to the model comprise only land use, distance to CBD, digital elevation model, constraint areas, ma-jor and minor roads. Other constraints are: – current land-use development is restricted to residential use; – residential floor space demand has been calculated using UN population projections,

these could be unreliable; – continuous increase of floor space demand per inhabitant has been assumed; – growth has been restricted to ‘open space’; – there is no differentiation of settlement densities; – only ‘built-up’ areas are shown (agricultural and settling in the periphery is not con-

sidered); – accessibility is currently not appropriately integrated; – so far the model has not incorporated water supply. (For the whole presentation see Appendices 9 and 10)

2.2 Results of the plenary discussion The following issues presented in the subsections 2.2.1 – 2.2.6 have emerged as results from the plenary discussion about tasks and options for the project implementation phase mainly focusing on possible growth and planning scenarios providing input for the future project work. (See Figure 2.5)

Figure 2.5: Discussion on options for phase II


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2.2.1 Consolidation of basemap

A participant responding to the presentation on the simulation model advised that in-stead of using 1999 figures, data about current land use should be used. To achieve this, spot information (prepared by UCLAS and ITC in 1998) supported by ground verifica-tion can be used. Christian Lindner responded that there was no more recent informa-tion available to the project than aerial photographs from 2002 which are in the process of being used for updating the ITC land-use data.

2.2.2 Scaling up the Megacities project at government level

Currently the Megacities project seems to draw participants from a narrow audience comprising city level participants only. There is a need to scale it up to capture strategic actors-decision makers at higher government levels.

2.2.3 Enhance dissemination on Megacities project

A website for the Megacities project is currently available where most of this informa-tion has been posted. Also more information is contained in the newsletter (refer to http://www.raumplanung.uni-dortmund.de/irpud/megacities/).

2.2.4 Problems hindering cross-sector coordination

Several issues hindering coordination were highlighted. These include distrust among key actors. Besides, grassroots actors are not enthusiastic because many projects have been initiated but without tangible results on the ground. However, the CIUP project is exemplary, in Manzese, Buguruni and Sandali with respect to water supply and street lights. What is needed is how to consolidate and build upon the good experiences.

2.2.5 The need to harmonise population statistics

The statistics for the population of Dar es Salaam have been invariably reported in the presentations. For example it has been said that in 1988 the population of Dar es Salaam was above 3.5 million people while the National Census 2002 put the population at 2.5 million. In this respect therefore there is a need to harmonise these figure so as to have a common understanding. It was further cautioned that often population projections are made with the specific requirements for which are done. In this respect it was noted that statistics from the National Bureau of Statistics or those of MKUKUTA1 be used sys-tematically. It was further reported by one participant that the Bureau of Statistics is preparing a “day light population” for the first time in Dar es Salaam. Once it is com-plete, it will offer important data for planning and for social economic development projections.

2.2.6 Other factors to influence population growth in Dar es Salaam

The expert opinion survey suggested that population is more likely to grow along Morogoro and Bagamoyo Roads. However, an argument was raised that Kilwa Road

1 MKUKUTA is an abbreviation of Mpango wa Kukuza uchumi na kupunguza Umasikini Tanzania; meaning the

National Strategy for Economic Growth and Poverty Reduction.

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will also attract more population especially following the construction of the road and the Unity Bridge connecting Tanzania and Mozambique. Five international contractors are already on the site. The upgrading of Kilwa Road is also an important factor.

Considerations should be given to the on-going construction of the ring road con-necting Wazo Hill-Temboni-Pugu and Kilwa Road. This will definitely influence popu-lation growth in these areas.

2.3 Future development scenario: Possible projects for phase II Following the presentations and the related discussions in the afternoon the attention was drawn to a more general discussion on future urban growth scenarios for Dar es Salaam and related ideas for projects demonstrating the fundamentals of the research project on site (see Figure 2.5).

The chairperson of the session reminded the participants that phase II of the Megacities project was intended to embark on a real life project which could be implemented to address strategic issues identified during phase I. Based on the analysis and future needs of the city, several opportunities including a number of projects in the pipeline were observed. These represented opportunities for project proposals. The opportunities in-clude: a) Adoption of the 20,000 plot project towards establishing satellite towns. Target pro-

ject areas include Kigamboni, especially when the Kigamboni Bridge will be con-structed.

b) Building on the proposed ring road to join Bagamoyo Road (Tangibovu) and Morogoro Road through Goba. Other satellite settlements mentioned include Bunju, Mbezi, Luguruni, Kizinga and Kigamboni.

c) Urban renewal/inner city renewal of dilapidated old settlements. d) Capacity building of the community (grassroots) actors through guided development

of the informal settlements in the peri-urban areas. e) Provision of basic infrastructure services in the satellite settlements with a focus on

cost-recovery: Improve the settlement and explore to create sustainable funding. It was observed that government has a firm policy in cost-recovery already TANESCO and the MLHSD has been implementing this measure in various pro-jects undertaken including the 20,000 plots project.

f) Build on the proposed community portable water supply system in Goba. This is a project which will be implemented under the CWSSP

g) A project on capacity building and awareness creation through creation of commu-nity forum to support regularisation of informal housing land.

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3 Workshop day two

Day two discussions brought together members of the Task Force to deliberate upon and concretize on the key issues which emerged from day one discussions (for names and addresses of day two participants see Appendix 11). After revitalising the key is-sues, Prof. Dr. Wilbard Kombe outlined the strategy for evolving the potential project proposal. He emphasised that the project has to take into account priority issues and concerns prepared during day one, findings from the field studies and key sectoral con-cerns of the leading actors in urban development. He also emphasized that an ideal pro-ject ought to build on opportunities unveiled as well as to take into account imminent constraints and challenges. In the following, are the discussions about possible project areas (Section 3.1) and approaches for the Megacities project (Section 3.2) as well as the challenge of infrastructure provision and cost recovery in general and with respect to a potential Megacities project in phase II (Section 3.3) are outlined.

3.1 Possible project areas for phase II: Luguruni Luguruni, along Morogoro Road, is currently being analysed and proposed for devel-opment of a satellite town by MLHSD. A participant observed that this would be an ideal project area as it is already a concern of the MLHSD. Furthermore, it captures most of the issues identified. Other attributes include: a) The area already accommodates various requirements and components of the project

concept, b) There is a possibility of having multiple combinations of project components, such

as upgrading, guided planning and regulation, c) Water supply plans are underway. Water should be provided through a Community

Water Supply approach which is demand driven, d) TANESCO is currently negotiating with the World Bank to provide electricity for

Ununio, Mbezi and Luguruni, e) The construction of the 30 kilometre Tangibovu-Luguruni road is expected to be

completed by 2009/2010, f) The MLHSD has started the preparation of a land use plan for Luguruni many years

ago. Currently, efforts to secure land are going on. After extensive discussions, more options for projects were given covering infrastruc-ture services, satellite settlements, guided land use development, and upgrading of in-formal settlements.

3.2 Approaches for the Megacities project A number of approaches were presented. The approach for the Megacities Project will comprise the following aspects: a) A multiple projects strategy to take into account several projects including guided

development. b) Extension of the 20,000 plots project concept but following an improved approach

with provision of serviced plots rather than paved roads only. c) Provision of small plots for low income households with minimum basic services.

15

d) Regularisation of the existing informal settlements to secure land for services. e) Subdivision plans to guide landowners to sell plots to the poor for incremental house

construction.

3.3 Infrastructure provision and cost recovery A task force member informed the audience that cost recovery for TANESCO is slated for a period of 15 years. On the other hand, it was noted that cost recovery for trunk roads is generally achieved if the Internal Rate of Returns is greater than 12 %.

It was suggested that a kind of a ‘Revolving Fund’ is needed to provide seed money for servicing and instituting cost recovery. For example, the estimated costs are about TShs 400 million (equivalent to USD 330,000) per kilometre length of bitumen road. Such costs cannot be recovered through land rent or property tax. This calls for a very special treatment.

Finally, it was agreed that the concepts of guided development, cost recovery, and sup-port to grassroots institutions and actors regulating land development should be given priority.

16

4 Conclusions

This chapter gives the main findings of the workshop and the way forward of the Mega-cities project including the planning of the next workshop and the institutional location of the project in phase II.

The fourth workshop in Dar es Salaam

The next workshop is scheduled to take place in the first week of June 2007 to present the final findings of phase 1. The project proposal for phase II will be discussed and deliberated upon by a wider group of participants.

Potential participants of the fourth workshop are representatives of the following or-ganisations and institutions:

1) DCC 2) three Municipalities 3) TANESCO

(Regional Managers) 4) DAWASCO 5) DAWASA 6) Ministry of Water 7) MLHSD 8) PMO-RALG

9) Local leadership 10) TANROADS 11) Ministry of Infrastructure Development 12) Councillors 13) UCLAS/UNIDO 14) TCCIA 15) Development Partners

Institutional location of the project

In order to make a careful decision on the institutional location of the project, it was reminded to take aboard the fact that this is a big project with cross-sectoral components and many partners, including the development partners. For this matter, it was consid-ered appropriate to locate it at ministerial level; the municipalities should of course play critical roles and be fully brought aboard. It was further agreed that the project will be placed under the Permanent Secretary of either the MLHSD or the Prime Ministers Of-fice, Regional Administration and Local Government (PMO-RALG). It was further agreed that the letter of commitment will be provided by only one Ministry, the PMO-RALG so as to avoid confusion. It was however agreed that the project organizers will first discuss the issue with the City Director before finally approaching the Ministry.

Willingness to collaborate was also assured by other institutions including the Minis-try of Infrastructure Development, Ministry of Water and DAWASA, MLHSD.

On another agenda, a request was made by the Ministry of Infrastructure that other utility agencies should have their own reserve areas to accommodate their utility lines. This will help to avoid heavy compensation cost by the Ministry of Infrastructure if it shifts its roads and thus affect utility agencies. The burden of heavy compensation is more pronounced especially with the coming participation of private investors.

17

5 Appendices

Appendix 1: Names and contact details of day one workshop participants ................... 18 Appendix 2: Day one workshop programme.................................................................. 20 Appendix 3: Presentation of the Megacities project ....................................................... 21 Appendix 4: Presentation on spatial development in DSM and the proceedings of the

Task Force ................................................................................................. 27 Appendix 5: Presentation of the “EnerKey” project....................................................... 42 Appendix 6: Presentation on the city structure and land-use development in DSM ...... 58 Appendix 7: Presentation of the results of the export opinion survey............................ 69 Appendix 8: Presentation on residential loation choices in informale settlements ........ 75 Appendix 9: Presentation of the simulation model......................................................... 88 Appendix 10: Presentation of the growth scenario “New Ring Road”......................... 109 Appendix 11: Names and contact details of day two participants................................ 115

18

Appendix 1: Names and contact details of day one workshop participants

S/No Name Organisation/Position Contact 1. Basteck, Timo University of Dortmund,

Faculty of Spatial Planning, Dep. Utility Systems Re-searcher

[email protected]

2. Eltrop, Dr. Ludger University of Stuttgart, Insti-tute of Energy Economics and the Rational Use of En-ergy, Head of Dep. System Analysis and Renewable Energies

[email protected]

3. Hill, Alexandra University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning, IRPUD, Researcher

[email protected]

4. Igoko, Veronica Kinondoni Municipality; Town Planning Officer

5. Kagimbo, Photidas [email protected] 6. Kombe, Prof. Dr. Wilbard University College of Lands

and Architectural Studies, Urban and Regional Plan-ning Department, Researcher

[email protected] +255-22-275004 +255-754-554126

7. Kreibich, Prof. Dr. Volker University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning, former Head of SPRING and Department of Spatial Plan-ning in Developing Coun-tries

[email protected]

8. Kyessi Dr. Alphonce University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS), Urban and Re-gional Planning Department, Researcher

[email protected]

9. Limbumba Mtwangi, Tatu University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS), PhD student

10. Lindner, Christian University of Dortmund, Faculty of Spatial Planning, IRPUD, Researcher

[email protected]

11. Lupala, Dr. John University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS), Urban and Re-gional Planning Department, Researcher

[email protected] +255-754-522379

12. Maira, Julius Dar es Salaam City Council (DCC), Coordinator EPM-Unit

+255-754-290132 julimaira@ yahoo.co.uk

13. Mbowe, Mary, K. Ministry of Water, Senior Engineer

14. Mero, Clemence Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements De-velopment, Manager “20,000 plots” project

15. Mlay, E.L.

19

16. Mnzanva, Godwin TANESCO; Regional Man-ager Kinondoni

+255-784-351249

17. Mpapasingo, Stephen Temeke Municipality; Mu-nicipal Engineer

18. Msuya, Nelly DAWASA; Community Liaison Manager

19. Msangi, Daniel E. University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS), Institute for Hu-man Settlement Studies, Researcher

+255-787-219580 [email protected]

20. Mtani, Anna Safer Cities Programme (PMO-RALG); National Coordinator

+255-754-298951

21. Mtui, Lameck Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human Settlements De-velopment; Principal Town Planner

+255-754-385607

22. Mujwahuzi, Edwin Ministry of Infrastructure Development, Director for Trunk Roads

+255-754-694078 [email protected]

23. Mulongo, David World Bank, Urban Special-ist

24. Mwalusaka, Michael 25. Namangaya, Ally Hassan University College of Lands

and Architectural Studies, Urban and Regional Plan-ning Department, Researcher

[email protected]

26. Pallangyo, Juliana TANESCO 27. Samandito, Gombo Ilala Municipal Council 28. Sauramba, James Sustainable Cities Pro-

gramme Tanzania / Urban Authorities Support Unit (UASU); Professional Engi-neer / Technical Adviser

[email protected]

29. Schäfer, Dirk German Agency for Techni-cal Cooperation (GTZ)

[email protected]

30. Sheuya, Dr. Shaaban University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS), Urban and Re-gional Planning Department, Researcher

UCLAS

20

Appendix 2: Day one workshop programme

Sustainable Development of Megacities of Tomorrow

Trunk Infrastructure and Urban Growth – Managing Rapid Urbanisation in Poverty in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

WORKSHOP III PROGRAMME: 25th January 2007

Time Activity Responsible person 8:30-8:50 Registration Secretariat 8:50-9:00 Introduction Participants 9:00-9:05 Welcoming remarks and opening Prof. Dr. W. Kombe 9:05-9:10 Remarks from Dortmund Prof. Dr. V. Kreibich 9:10-9:30 Task force deliberations Prof. Dr. W. Kombe/

Dr. J. Lupala 9:30-10:00 Energy as a key element for sustainable develop-

ment of the Greater Johannesburg Dr. Ludger Eltrop

10:00-10:30 Discussion All 10:30-11:00 Coffee Break All 11:00-11:15 Urban growth patterns and infrastructure services:

driving forces and challenges Alexandra Hill

11:15-11:30 Future urban growth in Dar es Salaam: views and opinions of professionals/practitioners

Timo Basteck

11:30-11:40 Preferential locations of informal settlers in Dar es Salaam

Tatu Limbumba

11:40-12:00 Discussion All 12:00-13:00 Future expansion and infrastructure development

in Dar es Salaam: preliminary results from the simulation model

Christian Lindner/ Alexandra Hill

13:00-13:30 Discussion All 13:30-14:15 Lunch Break All 14:15-14:45 Future development scenario All 14:45-16:45 Tasks and options for project implementation

phase All

16:45-17:00 Closing Prof. Dr. W. Kombe/ Dr. J. Lupala.

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Appendix 3: Presentation of the Megacities project

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Dar es SalaamDar es SalaamMEGA:citiesMEGA:cities

Trunk Infrastructure and Urban Growth -Managing Rapid Urbanisation under Poverty

in Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Dar es SalaamDar es Salaam

MEGA:citiesMEGA:cities

3rd Workshop, Dar es Salaam, 25 Jan., 2007

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I. Project OrganisationII. Project FocusIII. ObjectivesIV. Guiding QuestionsV. MethodologyVI. Outlook

AgendaAgenda

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I. I. Project Organisation Project Organisation –– DortmundDortmund

Institute ofSpatial Planning

Spatial Planning forRegions in

Growing Economies

Department of Utility Systems

Website: http://www.raumplanung.uni-dortmund.de/irpud/megacities

Project Coordinator: Prof. Dr.-Ing. Hans-Peter Tietz

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UCLAS - University College of Lands and Architectural Studies

http://www.udsm.ac.tz/

I. I. Project organisation Project organisation –– Dar es SalaamDar es Salaam

http://www.uclas.ac.tz/

Prof. Dr. Wilbard Kombe, Dr. John Lupala

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FICHTNER Engineering Services and ConsultancyHome Office Stuttgart, Germanyhttp://www.fichtner.de

I. I. Project organisation Project organisation –– nonnon--academic partnersacademic partners

Technical Implementation Partner

Public Implementation Partners• Dar es Salaam City Council• The three Municipalities of Dar es Salaam• Local community based organisations (CBOs)• Ministries and agencies in charge of planning and

infrastructure provision

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II. Project II. Project focusfocus

The project focuses on the mutual links between trunk infrastructure development and urban growth with the intention to identify access points for strategic interventions into rapid urban growth under poverty following the concept of guided planning.

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1. Determine how infrastructure is supporting, moulding and influencing urban growth and development.

2. Identify favour and constraint areas for future urban expansion considering trunk infrastructure provision.

3. Investigate how the supply of infrastructure can be used as a tool to guide and control urban development by strategic provision of infrastructure in favour areas for urban development.

4. Develop approaches for guided land development in informal settlements facilitating the provision with trunk infrastructure.

5. Develop and implement management measures on the citywide level to secure better intersectoral co-operation

III. III. ObjectivesObjectives

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1. Which impact does trunk infrastructure supply have on urban development and to which extent does it determine urban expansion?

2. What are the criteria of informal settlers for choosing an area to build and how are they related to infrastructure provision?

3. How can infrastructure supply be used as a tool to guide urban development?

4. How can the provision of trunk infrastructure be integrated into a decentralised urban planning and management approach?

IV. Guiding questionsIV. Guiding questions

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VV. Methodology. Methodology

Two main approaches

qualitative – interviews and surveys to assess the role of trunk infrastructure and issues concerning provision

quantitative – development of a model (cellular automaton) to simulate urban growth of Dar es Salaam as a function of – topography – neighbourhood effects– vehicular access– water availabilityto enable testing of planning scenarios

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VV. Outlook. Outlook

Implementation phase (up to 9 years)

Results from the Analysis Phase will serve as a base for technical and managerial concepts and strategies to support a more sustainable urban growth.

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Thank you.Thank you.

Prof. Dr. Volker KreibichProf. Dr. Volker [email protected]@uni--dortmund.dedortmund.de

Dipl.Dipl.--Ing. Christian LindnerIng. Christian [email protected]@uni--dortmund.dedortmund.de

27

Appendix 4: Presentation on spatial development in DSM and the proceedings of the Task Force

THE CONTEXT

SPATIAL EXPANSION OF DAR ES SALAAM

AND ROAD NETWORK DEVELOPMENT 1891-2002

Sprawling Dar es Salaam

28

Population increase in Dar es Salaam (1891-2001)

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

3000000

3500000

1891

1894

1900

1913

1921

1931

1943

1945

1948

1952

1957

1963

1967

1978

1988

1992

2001

years

inha

bita

nts

Spatial Extent of Dar es Salaam 1891

Ras RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas Rongoni

Dar es Salaam: Extent of built - up area, 1891.

Source: Dar es Salaam Master Plan, 1978.

Mbezi river

Mzinga

river

Kizinga river

Msimbazi riv

er

Tege

ta riv

er

0 2.5

Kilometers

5

Scale:

Yombo

Mbagala

Mkize

Mbwamaji

I n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a nI n d i a n O c e a n

Mikocheni

KekoTabata

Ilala

Temeke

Magomeni

Makongo

Kimara

Manzese

Oystarbay

Sinza

Ubungo

Bagamoyo road

Tegeta

MbeziMbeziMbeziMbeziMbeziMbeziMbeziMbeziMbezi

Buguruni

Segerea

Goba

Mbezi

Total built-up area = 122 ha.

Built - up land

Total population =

Gross density =4Km.

Kibamba

9240000°N

9260000°N

520000°E 540000°E

0

9240000°N

520000°E

Extent 2km

Pop 4000

Density 45 pph

Coverage 122 ha

29

Spatial Expansion of Dar es Salaam 1945

Ras RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas RongoniRas Rongoni

Dar es Salaam: Extent of built - up area, 1945

S D S l M Pl 1978

Mbezi river

Mzinga

river

Kizinga river

Msimbazi r

iver

Tege

ta riv

er

2.5

Kilometers

5

Scale:

Kilw

a road

0

Yombo

Mbagala

Mkize

Pugu

road

Mbwamaji


Mikocheni

KekoTabata

Ilala

Temeke

Magomeni

Makongo

Kimara

Manzese

Oystarbay

Sinza

Ubungo

Bagamoyo road

Tegeta


Buguruni

Segerea

Goba

Mbezi

Morogoro road

Total built-up area = 463.1 ha.

Built - up land

Total population =

Gross density =4Km.

Kibamba

9240000°N

9260000°N

520000°E 540000°E

0

9240000°N

520000°E

Extent 2km

Pop 60,190

Density 130 ppha

Coverage 463 ha


Pop 150,696

Extent 6km

Density 49pph

Covearge 3081 ha


Mzinga r

iver

Mbezi river

Kizinga river

Msimbazi rive

r

Tege

ta ri

ver

5

Mkize

0 2.5

KilometersScale:

Kongowe

Mbagala

Chamazi

Yombo

Pugu

road

Mbwamaji


Keko

Magomeni

Buguruni

OystarbayMikocheni

Sinza

Temeke

Tabata

Manzese

Makongo

Tegeta


Bagamoyo road

MbeziKibamba

UbungoMorogoro road

Kimara

Goba

4Km.

Built - up land

Total population =

Gross density =


Segerea

9260000°N

520000°E 540000°E

9240000°N

30



S D S l M t Pl 1978

Mkize

2.5 5

Kilometers

Kilw

a road

0

Scale:

Kongowe

Mbagala

Yombo

Chamazi

Pugu

road

Mbwamaji

Keko


Magomeni

Buguruni

Ilala

Temeke

Makongo

Kimara

OystarbayMikocheni

Sinza

Tegeta


Bagamoyo road

Mbezi

Tabata

Manzese

Segerea

Ubungo

Goba

Kibamba

Morogoro road


Built - up land

Total population =

Gross density =4Km.

Mzinga

river

Mbezi river

Kizinga river

Msimbazi r

iver

Tege

ta riv

er

9260000°N

9240000°N

520000°E 540000°E

Extent 14km

Pop 843,090

Density 74

Coverage 11,331 ha

Spatial Expansion of Dar es Salaam 1991Dar es Salaam: Extent of built - up area, 1992

Mzinga

river

Kizinga riv

er

Mbezi river

Msimbazi r

iver

Tege

ta riv

er

Mkize

Kilometers

0 2.5 5

Scale:

Kilw

a road

Kongowe

Mbagala

Chamazi

Pugu roadYombo

Pugu

road

4Km.

Morogoro

Total built-up area = 19,878.5 ha.

Bagamoyo road

Gross density =

Built - up land

Total population =

road

Sinza

Keko

MagomeniManzese

Oystarbay

Ilala

Temeke

Buguruni

Tegeta


Bagamoyo road

Kimara

Makongo

Mikocheni

Ubungo

Tabata

Goba

Mbezi

Segerea

9260000°N


520000°E 540000°E

9240000°N

Extent 18 km

Pop 1,550,000

Density 78 pph

Coverage 19879 ha

31

Spatial Expansion of Dar es Salaam (2001)

Mzinga

river

Kizinga r

iver

Msimba

zi rive

r

Mbezi river

Tege

ta ri

ver

Nak

asan

gwe

river

Mpi

ji riv

er

Kongowe

Mbagala

Mkize

Kilw

a road

Chamazi

Yombo

Pugu road

Mbwamaji

Gezaulole

Mwanamsekwa

roadMorogoro

Bagamoyo road

D a r e s S a l a a m : E x t e n t o f b u i l t - u p a r e a , 2 0 0 1 .

Sinza

Temeke

Goba

Magomeni

Buguruni

Manzese

Segerea

Oystarbay

MakongoMikocheni

Ubungo

KekoTabata

MbeziKimaraKibamba

Ilala

Kiruvya

Tegeta

Bunju

Boko


9260000°N

9240000°N

520000°E


Scale:

Gross density =4Km.

0

540000°E

Total population =

Built - up land

2.5

Kilometers

5

Total built-up area = 57211.4 ha.Extent 30km

Pop 2,497,940

Density 52 pph

Coverage 57,211 ha

Inner City Dar es Salaam

32

Intermediate formal settlements 4-6km Radius

Consolidated informal settlement (6-8 km Radius)

33

Consolidated Informal settlement (3km Radius)

Peri-urban informal settlement (15km radius)

34

MAIN ISSUES AND DELIBERATIONS FROM THE TASK FORCE MEETING

1. Lack of coordination• Lack of coordination between sectoral

utility agencies and other actors is the most single problematic issue

• Often, coordination among utility agencies is done during emergencies, suggesting that actors are aware and appreciate the synergic effects of cross-sectoral coordination

2.Lack of a coherent a spatial (land use) planLand use planning like other plans seems to lack mechanisms for cross-sectional coordination. 3. Investment on infrastructureInvestments in Water supply, roads and electricity services are accentuating intra-urban migration. Roads, water supply and electricity were the key determinants and catalysts of internal migration, densification and growth of city.

35

4. Other issues/observationsi. Reluctance among institutions/actors to share

information

ii. Lack of seriousness to sectorally coordinate actions and decision

iii. Subsisting land tenure arrangements particularly in informal settlements complicates the problems associated with access to land/way leaves for infrastructure services

iv. Utility agencies and other actors involved in urban land development are unable to coordinate their actions because of lack of integrated plan that harmonisessectoral plans.

v. Many policies and development programmes/project have sectoralinclination and evolve based on top-down approach. Thus they lack cross-sector owners.

36

Potential Structure for Cross-sectoral(Institutional) Coordination

1.DAWASA EXPERIENCE

• DAWASA, DAWASCO, the (Greater) Dar esSalaam City Council and the three Municipalities managed to forge coordination in infrastructure improvement projects in low income residential areas.

• The need for coordination was driven by the logic that project costs will escalate due to destruction of roads or underground networks arising from uncoordinated sectoral actions and decisions.

iii. In order to ensure that parties abide by this agreement/their commitment and as a measure to formalize the agreement, a Memorandum of Agreement (MoA) was drawn and signed by the three parties (DAWASCO, DAWASA and DCC).

iv. A Project Steering Committee (PSC) drawing representatives from the key stakeholder and parties involved in infrastructure improvement and urban growth was established.

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v. The Community Infrastructure Upgrading Programme (CIUP) units of the Dar es Salaam City Council and the three municipalities of Kinondoni, Temeke and Ilala are also represented in the Steering Committee. Key observations

• The success in this project could also be associated with strong influence and demand by the World Bank as the main financier of the project; suggesting that source of funding may be a critical factor for coordination.

• There was also a question on whether or not this experience could be scaled-up.

• The reservation is that owing to the small size of the project the experience has to be taken with caution.

• The Ministry of Lands and Human Settlement Development has started disseminating Town Planning Drawing (TP) to Utility Agencies and other parties involved in urban development.

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2. Community Infrastructure Upgrading Programme (CIUPs) Experience

• The main tool and mechanism for coordination was the Project Steering Committee.

Key Observations:• While establishment of Steering Committees seems to

offer a feasible entry point to cross-sectoral coordination, lack of an integrated development plan may weaken cross-sectoral coordination.

• Donor-driven projects and demands, inadequate resources, lack of a central planning unit (integrated planning unit) and competing initiatives (DCC project or MLHSD programmes) seem to undermine cross-institutional coordination.

• Emerging redevelopment trends in Oysterbay area where multi-storey houses are being erected without considering the demand for basic infrastructure service (waste management, electricity, etc) is posing a lot of challenges with regard to infrastructure servicing.

• Uncoordinated redevelopment projects in areas such as Magomeni and Manzesehave resulted into low voltage because of over-loading, as existing supply cannot cope with the increasing demand.

39

• Further, it was observed that while DCC was preparing the Cities Alliance Programme, there were also similar efforts by the Ministry of Lands and Human Settlements Development focusing on Peri-Urban settlements of Dar es Salaam. However, the two initiatives are not coordinated.

3. Urban Development and Environmental Management (UDEM) Experience

• UDEM is a unit that coordinates all donor and central government funded sectoralprojects undertaken in local governments

• Its main role is to receive applications from Local Authorities evaluate them, and manage funds granted to local authorities for such projects including infrastructure development.

40

• UDEM is also responsible for soliciting funds from central government and donors to support local development projects (the focus is on environmental projects).

• The ultimate objective is to facilitate and empower UDEM to coordinate planning and implementation of projects undertaken by local governments and their partners through funding from outside the council sources.

• The system (UDEM) will be effective next financial year (2006/2007).

4. General observations/summary

• The experiences narrated seem to enhance opportunities engendering an effective mechanism and framework for cross-sectoral / institutional coordination

• A mechanism to be effective it requires a legal mandate binding the parties involved such as Memoranda of Understanding (MoUs)

• However, it might be necessary to consider and evolve a legal instrument.

41

•Coordination is lacking not only at project level, but also at higher decision making levels including ministerial levels.

•Conflicting standards; ie differences in design and development standards used by various institutions for similar infrastructure constitute an impediment to effective coordination.

42

Appendix 5: Presentation of the “EnerKey” project

1

EnerKey

A collaborative German - South African research and implementation project on urban energy and infrastructure

The “EnerKey” Project –Energy as Key Element of the Sustainable

Development of Greater Johannesburg

Reality

Model ScopeModel ScopeModel

Structure

MathematicalDescription;Set of Calcul.

P PO P

Q P

BHKW S BHKW Coal BHKW

BHKW CO Coal BHKW

BHKW H BHKW Coal BHKW

_ _

_ _

_ _ _

= ⋅

= ⋅

= ⋅

ηε

η2

2

SoftwareTool

ModelResults

0

10

20

30

PJ

1990 2000 2010 2020

HouseholdTransportIndustry

Dr. Ludger EltropIER, University of Stuttgart

Dr. Ludger Eltrop 2007EnerKey 2

EnerKey

GERMANY

BADEN -WÜRTTEMBERG

StuttgartStuttgart

Mannheim

Berlin

Munich

Hamburg

Frankfurt

CologneLeipzig

University of Stuttgart

Faculty of Mechanical Engineering

Dept. SEE – Dr. Ludger EltropSystem Analysis and Renewable Energies

Instituteof Energy Economics andthe Rational Use of Energy IER

43

3

EnerKey

Mission and working fields of IER

Contribute to solving local, regional and global energy challenges by integrating technological, economic, environmental and social aspects.

• Working in a system analytical and interdisciplinary way with researchers from engineering, economic, environmental and political sciences

• Developing and applying tools and computer models to look at and analyze complex systems with abundant data and many interconnections

• Providing decision and strategy support for energy and environmental politics and for SME, companies and utilities of the energy sector

BALANCE

IEA (International Energy Agency)

Implementing Agreement Implementing Agreement

Implementing Agreements

Energy Technology Systems Analysis Programme (ETSAP)

Technology oriented analysis of energy systems:- Analysis of national and multinational long-term strategies

in the context of economic and sustainable energy supply- Assessment of perspective of energy technologies- Technology data review- Model development (MARKAL, TIMES)

Project Head: GC Tosato

www.etsap.org

Outreach

IEA (International Energy Agency)









www.etsap.org

Outreach

TIMES

Impact AssessmentHuman health


Monitor- report generator- graphical display

of results

emissionscenariodatabase

referenceenvironment

database

dose-responsefunctions

monetaryvalues

Air transport models- ISC- WTM- SROM


Impact AssessmentCrops


Impact AssessmentMaterials


Impact AssessmentEcosystems




Monitor- report generator- graphical display

of results

emissionscenariodatabase

referenceenvironment

database

dose-responsefunctions

monetaryvalues









EcoSense MESAP

4

EnerKey

The “MEGACITIES” – program of BMBF

• topics: food, water, energy, mobility, health, quality of life, education etc.

Large urban agglomerations affect the whole world –there is a common concern and mutual learning! Innovation

strategies of sustainable transformation help all parties.

• aim: solutions, innovations, pilot applica-tions, action and transfer of action

• sector interchanging, integrated and international networks,

• including all relevant groups and stakeholders from politics, science and society; intensifying the science-technological collaboration between Germany and target region

• projects in 15 urban agglomerations worldwide

44


EnerKey

Motivations for a program on Megacities

UN world urbanisation report 2004

• demographic: World population is rising, urban populationincreases sharply up to 70% in 2030

• regional: Land use for cities is large, cities are spreading in width

• environmental: Cities are consuming lots of resources: water, food, energy, …

• social: social structures and control is weakened comparedto rural areas

• economic: communication and transaction costs for economicservices are lower

• ……

rural populationless developed

urban population

urban populationless developed

rural population

6

EnerKey

Involved cities in the BMBF“MEGACITIES”–program

Asia Vietnam Ho Chi Minh City India Hyderabad India Hyderabad Bangalore

China, India Guangzhou (Pearl River), Pune, Mumbai

China Jiading China Ningbo I China Ningbo II China Ürümqi Iran Karaj-Hashtgerd (Teheran)Central and South America Mexico Guadalajara Peru Lima Brasil Recife Africa South Africa Johannesburg Tansania Dar es Salaam Äthiopia Addis Abeba Marocco Casablanca

45


EnerKey

The “EnerKey” project

“Energy is a key element for sustainable transformation”

Germany and South Africa have common concerns about urbanisation, landscape settlement distribution, energy provision and distribution, … and

on the environmental impact of these processes.

That means: common interests in the sustainable transformation of thesocieties, i.e. the urban societies

to increase energy efficiency, to introduce more renewables, to save money, to better integrate technologies, to protect the climate

To develop the energy systems towards sustainability!

Core objectives of “EnerKey”

8

EnerKey

GAUTENG - SOUTH AFRICA

Port Elizabeth

NORTHERN CAPE

Cape Town

EASTERN CAPE

WESTERN CAPEEast London

Durban

KWAZULU-NATAL

NORTH WEST

LIMPOPO

GAUTENG

FREE

Pietermaritzburg

Kimberley

LESOTHO

JohannesburgPretoria

Upington

Mafikeng Nelspruit

Bloemfontein

INDIAN OCEANATLANTIC OCEAN

NAMIBIA

BOTSWANA

ZIMBABWE

Klerksdorp

STATE

Mossel Bay

Umtata

Polokwane

MPUMALANGA

From www.anc.org.za/lists/maplist.html

0.00%

0.50%

1.00%

1.50%

2.00%

2.50%

3.00%

3.50%

4.00%

4.50%

5.00%

Jobu

rg

Ekur

hule

ni

Tshw

ane

eThe

kwin

i

Msu

nduz

i

Cap

e To

wn

Nel

son

Man

dela

Buff

alo

City

Man

gaun

g

Tota

l of

Nin

eC

ities

Tota

l SA

Popu

latio

n

1946-1970 1970-1996 1996-2001

4,10

4,12

3,37

46

9

EnerKey

City and Region of Stuttgart

1.441 municipal buildings with 2 million m²182.000 MWh/a power 20.5 Mio. Euro/a303.000 MWh/a heat 15.8 Mio. Euro/a1.9 million m³/a water 6.5 Mio. Euro/a

590 000 inhabitants in CityRegion of Stuttgart: 2,68 Mio.total area: 207 km²elevation: 207 to 549 m aslaverage temperature: 10 °C


EnerKey

De Wit SustainableOptions (Pty.) Ltd.

Energy Research Center - ERC

Project-Coordinators City Administrations

Research InstitutionsNGO

Enterprises

The partner consortium of “EnerKey”

Sustainable Energy AfricaSEA

SE Soc. SASESSA

AirshedPlanning

47


EnerKey

Project organisation within “EnerKey”

Municipalityof

Stuttgart

Project coordinatorIER and UniJ

IER

IZT

IBP

TÜV

…

UJERCSEACSIRdeWit

…

Germanpartners

South Africanpartners

Advisory and Quality Assurance Board

Exchange and mutual support

capacity building, projects, best practice examples

Municipalities ofJohannesburg

EkurhuleniTshwane


EnerKey

Integrated Assessment of the Energy System of the Urban Region of Gauteng

technical aspects non-technical aspects

Energysupply+conv.

Energy use in transport

Energy usein buildings

Infrastructure development

large scaleenergy plants

e.g. electr., LNG

waste manag,and energy

small scaleenergy devices

e.g. solar energy

acceptanceof innovations

poverty alleviation

Regulatory +financ.aspects

Goodgovernance

laws, rules and orders

Socio-econ.aspects

residential h.- low cost

- middle class- high end

admin. +office build.

municipal, trade and comm.

cars,driving cycles

publictransport

freighttransport

acceptanceof rules + ordersschools

TIMES

socio-econ. modelEnergy advisorRetScreen

GIS

Ikarus - TM

Integrated Energy, Environment and Climate Protection Concept

institutionsorganisations

financing,support,

CDM

planning +monitoring

tools,instruments

Ecological analysis LCA

standards,certificatesguidelines

Capacity building

Activity fields

Tools/instruments*

Research Areas

town + settlement planning grids infrastructure

Emission inventory Air quality externalities

public participation awareness raising training information transfer

48


EnerKey

TIMES, ALEP

EnergyControlling

Model

RenewableEnergies

NetworkPlanningSystem

EnergyConceptAdviser GIS

systems

…

Energy +Sustaina-bility

Traffic+ Mobility

ITM

Use of modular and integrated (Energy) Planning Tools


EnerKey

Integrated (Energy) Planning

Activ

ity

Demand-Intensity

Ener

gy-

Serv

ice

ConsumersDevices

Fina

l-En

ergy

Demand SideManagement

Transport& Distribution

Seco

ndar

y-En

ergy

Conversion

Prim

ary-

Ener

gy

ManagementSupply Side

Integrated Resource Planning

49


EnerKey

Bottom-up and top-down approach

Energy System Analysis – TIMES Energy ModelAssessment and monitoring

Project„Energy

management“Project„Solar

hot water“Project„traffic

telematics“

Project„round table

energy“

Project………..

Tool 1Tool 2

Tool 3Tool 4

Tool 5


EnerKey

Five initial project-initiatives and more to come …

1. The EnerKey-schools project – energy efficiency and renewable energies- Planning and designing measures for energy efficiency and energy saving using the

Concept Advisor Tool (IBP)- Integrating energy issues in the curriculum / partnership between schools

2. Residential Thermal Energy – Houses/Settlements and cooking and (water) heating

3. Scoping Study for Integrated Energy Planning and Modelling using (TIMES)

4. Mobility & traffic project modelling the mobility sector in terms of infrastructure, planning, air quality and emissions

5. Institutionalise the implementation of solar water heating systems Solar Water Heating Project to

Short and medium term:

Medium and long term:

50


EnerKey

Work group meetings and project planning Nov. 2005


EnerKey

Experience exchange workshop in Stuttgart in July 06

Experience Exchange Workshop

12.-16. July 2006

51


EnerKey

Energy Management in municipal buildings in Stuttgartsavings vs. expense for staff and investments

savings2004: 20.815 Mio. €

since 1976:

282.5 Mio. €

expenses2004: 4.05 Mio. €

since 1976:

53.2 Mio. €

Savings versus expenses:1 zu 5.1

-10,000

-5,000

0,000

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

1976 1979 1982 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 2003

year

Mio

. €

savings

expenses

tariff

electricity cost

cost for heating

water cost

depreciation

staff and computing

Görres, 2006


EnerKey

Energy Efficiency Certificates

52


EnerKey

The Enerkey Schools Project

2. exchange and awareness raising

1.


EnerKey

Solar hot water supply programs in residential housing

0,0

50,0

100,0

150,0

200,0

250,0

1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

Factors of success and failure ?

53


EnerKey

Adapted technologies and energy utilisation for cooking

wood collection for cooking and heating

consultancy and advice by local people

non-adapted cookersas threats of fires and severe health impacts


EnerKey

Energy saving town planning and building construction

consideration of energy aspectsin city planning

(e.g. house orientation)

Energy related house construction

large windowsand overhanging roofs

towards the sun

54


EnerKey

Traffic regulation, traffic telematics

Tomorrow’s solutionsMore efficiency, more safety and more comfort on our roads - that should be ensured by modern traffic control systems.With practical tests, system analyses, planning and development concepts, we support you as a manufacturer or operator, on the way to contemporary traffic management.

Effect of traffic and transport on air quality


EnerKey

Socio-Economics – Poverty alleviation, just and equitable access to energy

Access to energy for everybody - social equity

Policy should aim at minimising income disparities

Social responsibility in industry and economy

Employment intensive alternatives are being favoured

Vision „Social Equity“ is based on:

Society is willing to socialise costs, burden sharingto foster equity is widely accepted

55

Dr. Ludger Eltrop 2007EnerKey

EnerKey

““The Integrated MARKAL The Integrated MARKAL EFOM System EFOM System –– TIMESTIMES””

as integrated energy as integrated energy system modelsystem model

Developed by the partners of the Energy Technology Systems Analysis

Programme (ETSAP)


EnerKey

ETSAP IEA (International Energy Agency)







www.etsap.org

Outreach

56


EnerKey

GDP

Process energy

Heating area

Population

Light

Communication

Power

Person kilometers

Freightkilometers

Demand services

Resourceprocessing

Refineries

Power plantsand

Transportation

CHP plantsand district

heat networks

Gas network

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Transport

Final energyPrimary energy

Domesticsources

Purchases

Dem

andsEn

ergy

pric

es, R

esou

rce

avai

labi

lity

Energy flows

Emissions

CostsPrices

Capacities

Government

Employment

economic and ecologicalevaluation - balance


EnerKey

The possible results of the “EnerKey” – ProjectEnergy use and environment

• energy balance for the City + region• concrete energy projects e.g. in

schools with energy savings and RES• a list of “best practice projects”• cost reductions• an “Energy Action Plan” for the

future• effective CO2 + emission-mitigation

strategies• outline of promising CDM-projects

Capacity building and networking• exchange of persons from municipalities• awareness rising of the „energy“ topic e.g.

in education• information campaign for all interested

Tools and methodologies

• portefeuille of models ready to use

• user-friendlysoftware

• Methods for localenergy planning

Socio-economic• Contribution to poverty alleviation• Participation model for stake-

holders and interested people• definition + putting into operation

of sustainability concepts

57


EnerKey

Cost-Potential-Curve of measures to reduce CO2-Emissions in Joburg

[ kt CO2 / a ]

[ Ran

d / t

CO

2]

0

750

1500

2250

3000

3750

4500

5250

6000

6750

7500

8250

0 25 50 75 100 125 150 175 200 225 250 275 300

Bio

gas

Bio

was

te Woo

d pe

llets

Cut

ted

woo

dH

ydro

elec

tric

ity

Win

dene

rgy

Sola

r hea

tcol

lect

ors

Phot

ovol

taic

s

Buildingmeasures

32

EnerKey

Thank you for yourattention

www.enerkey.info

We must consider our planet to be on loan from our children, rather than being a gift from our ancestors. (...) As caretakers of our common future, we have the responsibility to seek scientifically sound policies, nationally as well as internationally. If the long-term viability of humanity is to be ensured, we have no other choice.

Dr. Ludger Eltrop IER, Stuttgart, Prof. Harold Annegarn, University of Johannesburg

EnerKey

For information and contact …

58

Appendix 6: Presentation on the city structure and land-use development in DSM

1


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Dar

es

Sala

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ry 2

5th,

200

7

City Structure and Development –Driving Forces and Development Patterns



3rd Megacities Workshop, Dar es Salaam,January 25th, 2007

2


3rd

Meg

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es

Sala

am, J

anua

ry 2

5th,

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7

I. Guiding QuestionsII. Population GrowthIII. Settlement Area and Land UsesIV. Population Distribution and Density Development

AgendaAgenda

59

3


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es

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anua

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5th,

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7

1. Which are the framing conditions of future urban growth in Dar es Salaam?

2. What is the distribution of inhabitants and land-uses like? Are there special patterns observable?

3. In how far does trunk infrastructure supply influence residential location decisions?

I. Guiding QuestionsI. Guiding Questions

4


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7


AgendaAgenda

60

5


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7

II. Population Growth II. Population Growth –– TanzaniaTanzania

Population increase

• total population of TZ is projected to increase from 38 mio. Inhabitants in 2005 to 56 mio. in 2030

• most of the growth during this period is assumed to take place in urban areas (total urban population will more than double from 9 to 21 mio.)

• whereas the rural population only accounts for a total growth of 5 mio inhabitants reaching 34 mio. inhabitants in 2030

6


3rd

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7

II. Population Growth II. Population Growth –– TanzaniaTanzania

Growth Distribution

• small- and medium-sized towns lately show the highest growth rates

• for 2015 the total number of urban residents living in towns with less than 500.000 inhabitants is projected to be 8.8 mio

• but also the very big towns still have high growth rates and particularly due to their absolute number of new inhabitants guiding urban development is a challenge

• for 2015 Mwanza is projected to have more than 500.000 inhabitants

61

7


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anua

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5th,

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7

II. Population Growth II. Population Growth –– Dar es SalaamDar es Salaam

• DSM is one of the fastest growing cities in sub-Saharan Africa

• population multiplied by more than a hundredfold between 1900 and 2000

• in 1985 DSM passed the threshold of 1 mio. inhabitants

• population doubled in the past ten years, adding about 100,000 new inhabitants to the city every year

• according to the 2002 National Population Census, the city population was 2.5 million

• recently, it accommodates about 2.8 mio. people

• in 1950 DSM accounted for 1.1 % of Tanzania’s total population, in 2005 it had increased to 7 % and is projected to reach 8.4 % in 2015

• in DSM about 30 % of Tanzania’s urban population are allocated

8


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7

II. Population Growth II. Population Growth –– Dar es SalaamDar es Salaam

• DSM’s recent growth rates are about 4 % p.a.

• annual growth rates are estimated to decline to 3.2 % until 2015

• accordingly, latest UN projections assume 3.8 mio. inhabitants for 2015

• just lately the assumptions underlying the UN population projections were reduced; just two years ago the total population for 2015 was estimated to reach 4.1 mio

Population development Dar es Salaam 1948-2015

0

500.000

1.000.000

1.500.000

2.000.000

2.500.000

3.000.000

3.500.000

4.000.000

4.500.000

1948 1955 1962 1969 1976 1983 1990 1997 2004 2011Year

Tota

l Pop

ula

tion

62

9


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7


AgendaAgenda

10


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7

III. Settlement Area and Land UsesIII. Settlement Area and Land Uses

• The city experiences enormous city growth processes in terms of land occupation

• the city covers an area of approximately 1,350 sq.km.

• extensive densification and consolidation processes in existing settlements

• main development along line infrastructure (esp. main roads)

• rapid urban sprawl at the city’s fringe areas

• construction largely confined to single storey buildings

Source: Mike Shand, University of Glasgow

63

11


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Land-use proportions• no comprehensive land-use plan effective for the past decade

• though land consumption is high, there is still very much land unbuilt

Land-use proportions in 1998

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Vacant / Agriculture Informal settlement Other urban Planned residential

Land-use class

Prop

ortio

n in

%


Note: The analysis did not cover the area of the whole city!

12


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Land-use changes 1982-2002• new developments between 1992

and 2002 are nearly completely in informal settlements

• new developments mainly at the outer fringe

• new settlements at the periphery emerge along the main roads

• the southern coast emerges as a new focus of development

• settlement patterns tend to be very diverse depending on where exactly they are located


64

13


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7

Bagamoyo Road• coast-oriented development

• relatively disperse patterns between the road and the coastline

• clear concentration at very close distances to the road

• new settlements emerge at a growing distance to CBD

• lately, development ‘crossed the street’ and shifted eastwards

• some relatively isolated settlement nuclei in the hinterland


14


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Morogoro Road• very disperse settlement patterns

• new settlements emerge at a growing distance to CBD

• development within a relatively broad corridor (up to 3 km) along the road

• apparently there is some type of mixed use most probably strongly characterised by agriculture

• river valley south of the road is kept free of settlement (constraint area)


65

15


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Pugu / Nyerere Road• highly concentrated development

especially south of the road

• concentration of ndustrialdevelopment

• lately, some leapfrog residential development leaving the river valley vacant and ‘continuing’ to the north

• additional quite large-scale residential settlements emerging in the middle between PuguRoad and Kilwa Road


16


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Kilwa Road to Coast• spread of existing settlements at

their fringes

• some newly emerging residential areas at more peripheral locations along the main road

• big new settlements emerging at the coastline before 1998

• lately, some settlement activities along the street leading to the coast

• some industrial developments during the 1990s


66

17


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I. Guiding QuestionsII. Population GrowthIII. Settlement Area and Land-usesIV. Population Distribution and Density Development

AgendaAgenda

18


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7

Development of Population Densities (1992-1998)

• some planned residential areas consolidated (e.g. Mbezi Beach)

• most of the population growth absorbed by informal settlements

• most probably future population increase will shift to the newly emerging informal settlements

IV. IV. Population Distribution and Density DevelopmentPopulation Distribution and Density Development

67

19


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Population Distribution 1992 and 1998• calculating average population densities by buffering the CBD with 5km wide

buffer rings and including only settled areas within the statistical analysis

• population densities in informal settlements at all distances to CBD higher than in planned residential areas

• clear distance decay effect obvious: the longer the distance to the CBD the lower the population densities; planned residential is limited to a 25 km radius


Population densities in informal settlements 1998

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

<=5000 <=10.000 <=15.000 <=20.000 <=25.000 <=30.000 <=35000Distance to CBD in km

Popu

latio

n de

nsity

in in

habi

tant

s/ha

averageminimummaximum

Population densities in planned residential areas 1998

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

<=5000 <=10.000 <=15.000 <=20.000 <=25.000 <=30.000 <=35000

Distance to CBD in km

Popu

latio

n de

nsity

in in

habi

tant

s/ha

averageminimummaximum

20


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Population Distribution 1998• higher solution approach structuring the city into 1 km wide buffer ring


Average residential population densities 1998

R2 = 0,8846

R2 = 0,3462

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40


Popu

latio

n de

nsity

in in

habi

tant

s/ha

informal settlementplanned residential

68

21


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7

Population Distribution 1998• significant correlation between population density and distance to CBD

• surprising phenomenon: at the fringes the informal settlements tend to have a relatively stable population density (from 20 km distance outwards)

• It is assumed that there prevails mixed land-use combining residential and agricultural use

• there is no densification but sprawl processes (more remote in terms of main road) to secure agricultural use


Average residential population densities 1998

R2 = 0,8846

R2 = 0,3462

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40


Pop

ulat

ion

dens

ity in

inha

bita

nts/

ha

informal settlementplanned residential

22


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7

Thanks for listening!Thanks for listening!

Dipl.Dipl.--Ing. Alexandra HillIng. Alexandra [email protected]@uni--dortmund.dedortmund.de


69

Appendix 7: Presentation of the results of the export opinion survey

Tim

o B

aste

ck, U

nive

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Results of an expert opinion survey on urban growth issues in Dar es Salaam

Eng. Timo BasteckEng. Timo BasteckDepartment of Utility SystemsDepartment of Utility SystemsFaculty of Spatial PlanningFaculty of Spatial PlanningUniversity of DortmundUniversity of Dortmund



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I. Growth of informal settlements in Dar I. Growth of informal settlements in Dar eses SalaamSalaam

Which existing informal settlements do you expect will experience the highest population growth in the next 5 years?

• Manzese

• Mbagala• Buguruni

• Vingunguti• Bunju• Goba• Mbezi (Luisi, Juu)

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I. I. Growth of informal settlements in Dar Growth of informal settlements in Dar eses SalaamSalaam

• Generally, access to services

• Upgrading of Manzese, Buguruni, Vingunguti through CIUP

• Relatively low land prices, especially in Mbagala

• Availability of sufficient land (still a relatively low density)• Good accessibility to improved roads

Reasons behind this opinion

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II. Development of new settlements in Dar II. Development of new settlements in Dar eses SalaamSalaam

In which areas of Dar es Salaam do you expect the development of new settlements to be most prominent in the next 5 years?

Mostly prominent:• Close to Morogoro Road• Close to Bagamoyo Road

Most prominent:• In-between Morogoro and Bagamoyo Roads• Kigamboni area

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Reasons for development close to Bagamoyo Road:

• New development close to “20.000 plots” project areas• Close to main trunk road and connection to Bagamoyo• Availability of infrastructure (road network, water supply and

power)• Topography• Close to the beach

II. II. Development of new settlements in Dar Development of new settlements in Dar eses SalaamSalaam

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Reasons for new development close to Morogoro Road:

• Availability of infrastructure (road network, water supply and power)

• Close to main trunk road and connection to upcountry regions• Ongoing road development• DART project• Topography• Relatively low land prices


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Reasons for new development in-between Bagamoyo and Morogoro Road:

• Availability of infrastructure (roads leading to Bagamoyo and Morogoro Roads and water supply)

• Relatively low land prices• Low compensation payment for undeveloped land• Continuous surveying of land


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Reasons for new development at Kigamboni

• Continuous surveying of land• New development close to “20.000 plots” project area• Availability of infrastructure (road network, water supply and

power)• Topography• Close to the beach


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Tanzanian National Human Settlements Development Policy

§ 4.1.3.2 (i) Areas in urban centres that are earmarked for development shall be provided with infrastructure and social services before they are allocated to developers as required in the National Land Policy.§ 4.1.4.2 (iv) Ensure timely planning, surveying and servicing and servicing of land ripe for urban development in the peripheries of all towns so as to prevent haphazard/unplanned development. Hence, increased availability of planned and serviced plots shall render for the formulation and execution of special sites and services projects in selected urban areas unnecessary.

III. Further discussion pointsIII. Further discussion points

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What efforts should/can be made to open up land for development in the urban periphery timely and adequately?

III. Further discussion pointsIII. Further discussion points

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AsanteniAsanteni sanasana

Eng. Timo BasteckEng. Timo BasteckUniversity of DortmundUniversity of DortmundFaculty of Spatial PlanningFaculty of Spatial PlanningDepartment of Utility SystemsDepartment of Utility Systems+49 231 +49 231 -- 755 2279755 [email protected]@uni--dortmund.dedortmund.de

+255 754 +255 754 -- 405481405481

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Appendix 8: Presentation on residential loation choices in informale settlements

RESIDENTIAL LOCATION CHOICES IN INFORMAL SETTLEMENTS OF DAR ES SALAAM CITY

Preliminary Observations and Lessons Learnt

Presented at the Consultative Workshop on Trunk Infrastructure and Urban Growth in Dar es Salaam

January 25th 2007

Tatu Mtwangi Limbumba

University College of Lands and Architectural Studies (UCLAS), Dar es Salaam

RESEARCH PROBLEM

Limited studies on informal settlements development that focus on the question of location, housing preferences and demographic factors in the process of informal housing development.

In some studies suitable location has been cited as a factor for the growth of informal housing and inappropriate site location as one of the contributing factors to failures of some of the past interventions to address housing solutions (Kironde,1992; Wakely, 1988).

Importance of location and survival of residents esp.the poor ininformal settlements needs to be known in order to formulate responsive programmes.

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OBJECTIVE OF THE RESEARCH

The main objective of the study therefore is to understand the factors urban residents find important in selecting where to live/build and how the decisions improve or constraint their lives/livelihoods.

CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK

The conceptual framework of the research suggests that there is an interplay of factors that influence choice of residential location particularly in informal settlements which are ‘built’ and ‘shaped’ according to the peoples needs. Factors are complex, human related therefore planners needs insightful understanding of them in order to better respond.

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THEORETICAL CONSIDERATIONS

Two basic approaches: (i) Micro-economics approach where residential location choice is described in terms of a trade-off between transport costs and the price of housing.

The second approach involves micro-behavioural modelling. Focuses on the individual as the central decision-making unit.

THEORETICAL CONSIDERTAIONS cont....

Variables influencing residential location have been extended over the years to include:

Social status (wealth, culture, knowledge).Multi-centres – the declining importance of physical distance with the dispersal of employment centres.Family ties, extended family living together may override the demand for living space.

Different contexts have been studied e.g. developing countries where factors particularly those related to cultural and social affiliations have a strong influence.

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The Pilot Study

Done in months of August and September 2006.

Aim was to test research questions and methodology.

A total of 86 houses were interviewed in 3 informal settlements

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

The ultimate decision to settle in informal settlements is complex in developing countries. Apart from poverty, the decision involves tradition, values as well as behaviour (individual and spatial) that are intrinsic to the individual and to the context within which he/she operates.

The survey method was used to collect information during the pilot study using semi-structured questionnaire.

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DATA COLLECTION METHODS

1. Document review – These included maps and photographs to asses extent of residential development.

2. Interviews - with heads of households and key informants.

3. Direct observation – to assess the condition of buildings and the neighbourhood environment.

Data Collection

Data was collected on the following themes using questionnaires with closed and open ended questions (37):

- Household facts e.g. gender, occupation, marital status and income.

- Housing – Current and previous tenure, housing condition, social services available, energy use.

- Reasons for Location choice.

- Level of community cooperation and life improvement.

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Location of Keko Machungwa

N

24 respondents interviewed

Inner city area

N

Kinondoni District

ILALA DISTRICT

TEMEKE DISTRICT

Kawe Ward


Intermediete

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Kinondoni District

Ilala District

Temeke District

Mbagala Rangi Tatu

N


Peri-urban

FINDINGS

Will be presented according to the research questions.

Keko Machungwa – Population: About 25,000

Makongo Juu − Population: 1996 – 8,500: 2002 –12,000

Mbagala - Population: 24,000

Source: Interviews with Local government leaders

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HOUSING CONDITIONS

Pit latrines – 26Flush - 7

Pit latrines – 15Flush – 8Both-4

Pit latrines – 23Flush - 1

Sanitation

Communal wells – 4Vendors –11Neighbours (wells)–17Own Tap-1

Communal taps – 4Own reserve tanks -5Vendors –10Neighbours-7Own tap -1

Communal taps –13Vendors –5Neighbours-5

Water supply

Owners- 10Tenants- 21Owner &tenants - 2

Owners-14Tenants-13

Owners-2Tenants-22

Tenure

Mbagala- Peri-urban (33)

Makongo-Intermediete(27 pp)

Keko-Inner (24pp)

HOUSING CONDITIONS cont..

Situated along major Kilwa-Mbande road.

A major public transport route

Access roads exist, in poor condition especially during rainy season.

No major road

Public transport available

Situated on major road (Kilwa road), however police residential quarters act as a buffer between the area and the major road.

Roads and accessibility

Mbagala- Peri-urban (33)

Makongo-Intermediete(27 pp)

Keko-Inner (24pp)

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WHY DID THE RESIDENTS CHOOSE TO LOCATE TO ONE INFORMAL AREA OVER ANOTHER?

Lack of flooding during rainy season.Possibility of farming activities.

Proximity to family and friends.Location in the direction of village.

Availability of rooms and vacant land at low price.

Peri-urban

Attractive hilly area and cool micro-climate.

Did not come up as important.

Proximity to work place.Availability of land.

Intermediete

Availability of water supply and other basic services e.g. Schools, health centre.

Proximity to family and freinds.

Proximity to work place and functions of the CBD.

Inner

Area

Environmental/Physical

SocialEconomicReasons

WHAT ARE THE CHARACTERISTICS OF THE MOVER AND HOUSE AND HOW DO THESE INFLUENCE HIS/HER CHOICE OF LOCATION?

Primary school level involved in work as petty traders, watchmen, casual labourers.

More Skilled professionals, university and diploma level.

Mixed occupations, Primary and secondary school level; salaried residents mostly traders, machinga,domestic workers, watchman in the CBD.

Majority tenants and including homeowners living with tenants

Fairly equal tenants and home owners.

Majority are tenants

A more homogeneous community in terms of ethnicity – migrants.

HeterogonousFairly homogeneous most constituting of native ethnic groups. Growing areas in valley heterogeneous.

Peri-urbanIntermedieteInner

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Inner city - Keko MachungwaKeko Machungwa was described as an area for low income people by

the residents themselves, therefore they sought ways in which living costs could be decreased e.g walking to work instead of paying bus fare.

A respondent said “Hapa nipo karibu na mjini nafanya kazi Kariakoo sokoni, kwa hiyo kila siku ninatembea, ningekaa Mbagala ningekuwa nafanyia kazi daladala, unajua tena nauli.”

Meaning: “This place is close to my work place in Kariakoo Market so I walk everyday. If I had lived in Mabagala I would have been profiting the daladala business, paying bus fare.”

INFLUENCE ON CHOICE OF LOCATION?


Intermediete- Makongo Juu

Highly educated people have more resources to carry out a move and opportunities to make choices. They desire to live where the air is ‘unpolluted’; unpopulated, which was described as ‘uzunguni’(modern, western) by some of the residents. One respondent in Makongo Juu said “The air in Makongo is cool and this compensates for the water problems we face”

Another said “The area is not congested and is situated on a hill, one looks over Dar es Salaam. Also the area has people from many regions and therefore does not manifest the characteristics of “uswahilini”.

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Intermediate- Makongo Juu

Despite the acute water problem, residents in Makongo were able to spend about Tsh.30,000 a month buying and storing water.

An organised formal CBO has been formed to address the roads and water problem. However one tenant interviewed described the CBO as “Kikundi cha wati wenye pesa, wanauwezo wa kuchangia maendeleo.”Meaning: The group is for people with high incomes who can afford to

contribute.”


Peri-urban - Mbagala Rangi TatuWith low levels of education, skills and low incomes residents in Mbagala described it as one with low living costs. Low living costs meant the availability of cheaply priced food and cheap accommodation.

The words used to express the low costs of living by a respondent in Mbagala were: “Mbagala kimbilio la wanyonge. Kwa shilingi 500 mtu unakula kwa siku. Mihogo kwa shilingi 100, nyanya 50 na ni karibu na mashamba. (woman, trader)”. Meaning; “All poor people flock to Mbagala. For only 500 shillings one can eat cassava for a 100 shillings, tomatoes for 50 shillings and spinach for 50 shillings because we are close to the farms”. (Cultivation in the periphery).

Majority of the people interviewed worked within Mbagala, at the market as petty traders and as watchmen.


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While the middle-income residents described the more congested informal areas as “uswahilini” and undesirable, the residents in Keko Machungwa and Mbagala Rangi Tatu were comfortable with their choices because they felt at home in the areas. For instance a low-income tenant in Makongo juu said “Kila mtu hapa anaishi ndani ya geti, huwezi hata kuomba chumvi!”Meaning: “Every one here lives behind their gates,

you cannot even ask for salt (if it’s finished in your house).”

In “uswahilini”, it was observed that the lifestyle is more public,there was constant verbal and visual communication with neighbours, passers by on the streets, on the verandas and house corridors where women cooked and when fetching water. Indicating that proximity to family and friends is an important aspect in location choice.


Has the choice improved lives of the residents?

The results were inconclusive and need further investigations.

However what emerged was that the ability to own land and a house in the IFS was a life improvement. Most residents enjoyed the independence, opportunities (e.g. extra income) and peace ofmind offered by having a home of their own.

In the inner and peri-urban areas opportunities for petty trading was regarded as an improvement (the market exists). Many business aactivities were dependent on the flows of people, it was simple to set up a table, stall on the wayside selling, foodstuff, cigarettes, matchsticks etc.

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Methodological Issues

The survey provided an overview whereby one could make tentative assertions about the factors for residential location choice.

The answers provided by the respondents during the interview were not useful enough to determine the meaning behind the reasons put forward for choice. This is because a semi-structured questionnaire was used which proved to be restrictive. This calls for more in depth interviews on a few cases, in other words a qualitative approach.

Thank You for Listening

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Appendix 9: Presentation of the simulation model

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A Simulation of Future Urban Growth




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1. Urban models in spatial planning

2. DSM land-use model design and implementation

3. Interim results: Base Scenario

4. Outlook

AgendaAgenda

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4. Outlook

AgendaAgenda

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Urban models in spatial planningUrban models in spatial planning

What do we mean by ‘model’?» Simplified abstraction of some part of reality» A system which is able to mathematically reproduce

processes which can be observed in real life» A computer-based application which is able to simulate

land-use development by a set of distinct rules

Why using models in spatial planning processes?» Study spatial development processes» Make forecasts about future spatial development» Test planning scenarios» Support decision making

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4. Outlook

AgendaAgenda

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DSM landDSM land--use model design and implementationuse model design and implementation

Cellular automata (CA)» Capable of simulating complex spatial processes by (relatively)

simple underlying rules

» Raster-based approach; area is divided into evenly spaced cells of appropriate size (e.g. 100x100m)

» Each cell is assigned to a specific land use (i.e. the main landuse in this cell)

» Cells may change their state from one simulation period to the next

» Transition rules determine land-use allocation

» Incorporation of neighbourhood effects

» Exogenous demand functions (e.g. population projections) generate overall demand for each land use

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DSM model – Features

» Simulation of DSM land-use development by using CA techniques

» Consideration of the role of trunk infrastructure» System layout allows for the definition of (planning &

policy) scenarios» Implementation based on Esri ArcGIS software

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Determinants – Key driving forces of land-use changeVariables to be considered by the model to calculate land-use change potential:

» Current land-use» Natural conditions (e.g. slope, terrain roughness,

proximity to river, land cover)» Accessibility (e.g. potential accessibility to population,

walking distance to next Dalla Dalla stop, Distance to CBD, Distance to next (tarmac) road

» Access to water supply (distance to water main, kiosk, next well)

» Cell neighbourhood (land-uses in cell neighbourhood)

» Zoning status

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}Current land use

Planned residential

Informal settlement

Other urban

Vacant

Zoning Status

Neighbourhood

Access to water supply

Accessibility

Natural conditions

Cell Properties

Land use cell Xt t+1

Population Development

Floorspace demand for land use Y

Exogenous Factors

Suitability forland use Y

Transition Rules

+ Random Factor

Current land use

Planned residential

Informal settlement

Other urban

Vacant

Zoning Status

Neighbourhood

Access to water supply

Accessibility

Natural conditions

Cell Properties

Land use cell Xt+1

Recreation

Transport

Institutional

Industry

Commerce

Low density

Medium density

High density

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exogenous

land use

natural

transport

water

zoning

Database

» Population projections» Coefficients

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exogenous

land use

natural

transport

water

zoning

Database

» Land use for reference year

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exogenous

land use

natural

transport

water

zoning

Database

» Digital elevation model» Rivers and watersheds» Constraint areas

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exogenous

land use

natural

transport

water

zoning

Database

» Major roads» Minor roads» Bus stops

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exogenous

land use

natural

transport

water

zoning

Database

» Water supply network» Water kiosks» Wells OR water tables

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exogenous

land use

natural

transport

water

zoning

Database

» Land-use plan» Master plan» Other designations

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DSM landDSM land--use model design and implementationuse model design and implementationGenerate cell properties

- Suitability- Neighbourhood- Zoning status

1. Determine suitability

Determine current land

use

Determine natural

conditions

Determine accessibility

Determine access to

water

2. Determine neighbourhood 3. Determine zoning status

Transition potentialGenerate transition potential for each cell and each land use at time t

Determine constraint

areas

Determine overall

demand for each land use

Transition rulesAssign land uses to cells according to overall land use demand

and considering transition potential

Suitability

Random perturbation

START

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Current state of developmentInterim results are based on:

» Incomplete database:Currently only land use, distance to CBD, digital elevation model, constraint areas, major and minor roads are available as model input.

» Constrained set of variables:Variables currently taken into account are slope, distance to main road, distance to minor road, distance to CBD, cell neighbourhood and a random factor.

» Further constraints / assumptions:- Land-use development restricted to residential- Floorspace demand calculated using UN population projections- Continuous increase of floorspace demand per inhabitant- Growth restricted to ‘open space’- No settlement activity on constraint areas

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DSM landDSM land--use model design and implementationuse model design and implementationGenerate cell properties

- Suitability- Neighbourhood- Zoning status

1. Determine suitability

Determine current land

use

Determine natural

conditions

Determine accessibility

Determine access to

water

2. Determine neighbourhood 3. Determine zoning status

Transition potentialGenerate transition potential for each cell and each land use at time t

Determine constraint

areas

Determine overall

demand for each land use

Transition rulesAssign land uses to cells according to overall land use demand

and considering transition potential

Suitability

Random perturbation

START

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4. Outlook

AgendaAgenda

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Interim results: Base ScenarioInterim results: Base Scenario

» ‘Base scenario’ simulates future development without major interventions.

» Framing conditions assumed to remain constant.» Also called ‘Do-Nothing’ scenario.» Reference scenario for subsequent planning and policy

scenarios.

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Inputs: Land-use data» Land-use 1998 provided by

ITC, Enschede» Land-use categories:

- Residential area- Other urban- Vacant / Agriculture

» Basic land-use layer; starting point for simulation

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Inputs: Road network» Road network 1998 provided

by ITC, Enschede» Road categories:

- Major roads- Minor roads

» Separated into different layers for processing issues

» Determining distance to main roads

» Determining distance to minor roads

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Inputs: Digital elevation model» Provided by ITC, Enschede» 20 m resolution» Used to derive slope

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Inputs: Constraint areas» Based on landform layer

provided by ITC, Enschede» Considered categories:

- River valleys- Swamp areas

» Used to determine constraint areas where no development will take place

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Cell neighbourhood» Circular neighbourhood with a

total radius of 6 cells,i.e. 600 m

» Formed by 6 rings» Each ring has a different weight,

i.e. neighbouring cells closer to the current cell account for a higher neighbourhood score

» Used to account for neighbourhood effects, i.e. how many cells of the considered land use do exist within the neighbourhood

1000 900 800 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000

1000

900

800

700

600

500

400

300

200

100

010

020

030

040

050

060

070

080

090

010

00

1000

m10

00m

1000m 1000m

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1 2 3 4 5 6

Distance from cell

Wei

ght

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» Based on population projections by UN

» Floorspace demand derived by calculations based on land-use data (floorspace/resident)

» Constant rate of increase assumed

» Used to determine overall demand for additional residential floorspace in each model iteration

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

120.000

140.000

160.000

180.000

1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33

time (t)

area

(ha)

Exogenous factors: floorspace demand

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Model results: t = 0

Preliminary results - do not cite!

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Model results: t + 1

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Model results: t+ 9» Ribbons alongside major roads

extend into open space» Morogoro Road and Bagamoyo

Road as main development axes» Less development within the

areas in between the arterial roads

» Significant growth also observable within the municipality of Temeke(will even increase if the new bridge will be built)

» How can this vast spatialexpansion be appropriately serviced?

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Remember…

» This is NOT the weather forecast.» Remember constraints of the model (partly related to the

current stage of development):» Development restricted to open space» Model only accounts for residential floorspace» No differentiation of settlement densities» Only ‘built-up’ areas are shown (agricultural settling in

the periphery is not considered)» Accessibility is currently not appropriately integrated» So far the model does not account for water supply

» BUT overall pattern can be assumed to be plausible.

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4. Outlook

AgendaAgenda

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OutlookOutlook

Additional variables» Accessibility in terms of travel times (will provide a more realistic

picture considering road quality, traffic jam and congestions)» Access to water (determining each cell’s attractiveness in terms

of water supply potential)» Land-use plans / Masterplans

Model calibration» Calibration of the model using historic data» Weighting of the different variables

Further enhancements» Accounting for other land-uses» Accounting for densities» Accounting for land-use changes between land-uses other than

vacant / agriculture

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OutlookOutlook

Crucial issues» Availability of appropriate data within the field of water supply» Determining proportion of densification vs. urban sprawl for

realistic floorspace demand assumptions» Appropriate definition of constraint areas» Integration of land-use plans / Masterplans

Your help is needed!

Future model applications» Test planning and policy scenarios» Test and evaluate assumptions on urban growth driving forces» Identify urban growth areas with respect to trunk infrastructure

provision

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Thanks for listening!Thanks for listening!

Dipl.Dipl.--IngIng. Alexandra Hill. Alexandra Hillalexandra.hillalexandra.hill@[email protected]


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DiscussionDiscussion

Questions

Have the main driving forces of DSM land-use development been considered (appropriately)?Do the assumptions and constraints exhibit major flaws?Where do you see specific potential for the application of such a model within your daily business?How to improve the data-base of the model by contributing better / additional data from your organisation?Which scenarios are imaginable as input to the model?(to be discussed in the afternoon session)

109

Appendix 10: Presentation of the growth scenario “New Ring Road”

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A Simulation of Future Urban GrowthA Simulation of Future Urban Growth

Scenario Scenario ‘‘New Ring RoadNew Ring Road’’




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Model capabilities: Scenario Model capabilities: Scenario ‘‘New Ring RoadNew Ring Road’’

Scenario ‘New Ring Road’Results: t = 0

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Scenario ‘New Ring Road’Results: t + 1


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Appendix 11: Names and contact details of day two participants

S/No Name Telephone Number Email address 1 Edwin Mujwahuzi +255-754-694078 [email protected] 2 Prof. Dr. Wilbard Kombe +255-754-554126 [email protected] 3 Anna Mtani +255-754-298951 [email protected] 4 Godwin Mnzanva +255-784-351249 [email protected] 5 Nelly Msuya +255-784-266660 [email protected] 6 Lameck Mtui +255-784-385607 [email protected]

[email protected] [email protected]

7 Clemence Mero +255-713-256322 [email protected] 8 Julius Maira +255-754-290132 [email protected] 9 Mary, K. Mbowe +255-713-325776 [email protected] 10 Daniel E. Msangi +255-787-219580 [email protected] 11 Namangaya, A.H. +255-754-574743 [email protected]

[email protected] 12 Dr. John Lupala +255-754-522379 [email protected] 13 Prof. Kreibich volker.kreibich@uni-

dortmund.de 14 Alexandra Hill alexandra.hill@uni-

dortmund.de 15 Christian Lindner christian.lindner@uni-

dortmund.de 16 Timo Basteck timo.basteck@uni-

dortmund.de

working paper 3 - tu dortmund...working paper 3 megacities dar es salaam trunk infrastructure and...

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