working lunch! nacaa: july 17, 2007 grand rapids, mi dave beede dept. animal science michigan state...
TRANSCRIPT
Working Lunch!Working Lunch!
NACAA: July 17, 2007NACAA: July 17, 2007Grand Rapids, MIGrand Rapids, MI
Dave BeedeDept. Animal Science
Michigan State University
Environmental Environmental Opportunities for Animal Opportunities for Animal
Agriculture:Agriculture:Extension’s Critical RoleExtension’s Critical Role
Dave BeedeDave Beede
Two Questions ?Two Questions ?• What are
current and future environmental opportunities for animal agriculture?
• What should be and/or are Extension’s roles?
http://www.mdr.msu.edu
OverviewOverview• Working Lunch
• Two Questions (handout)
• ‘Systems Thinking’ in farms?
• Criteria for Evaluation of Agriculture Systems
• Potential Climate Revenue Centers, Market Opportunities
• Applied Research?
• Extension’s Current and Future Role
Animal FarmAnimal Farm
??
Animal FarmAnimal Farm
??
Animal Farm……..Animal Farm……..
Dairy Farm (System)Dairy Farm (System)
MSU Extension Dairy Team, 2006
Dairy Production SystemDairy Production System
http://www.mdr.msu.edu
Production SystemsProduction Systems• Industry:
– Straight line production process• Raw materials product replacement over time• Highly efficient operations• Little waste material resulting from process
• Agriculture:– Circular flow of nutrients (cycle)– Products and wastes leave cycle
• May re-enter cycle– Human/societal waste, food residues, etc.– Raindrops collect gases and particulates from air
• Sustainable (systemic), but not perpetual
Industry vs. Agriculture
Hoshiba, S. 2002. In: Greenhouse Gases and Animal Agriculture
Production SystemsProduction Systems• ‘‘Industrial Agriculture’Industrial Agriculture’
– Straight line production• Import of some raw materials (feed, fertilizer, bedding)• Raw materials product exported• Quite inefficient (25 to 35% for animal products)• Large amounts of waste; e.g., dairy…….
►(240 lb intake – 90 lb milk) = 150 lb out as manure
• Accumulation of nutrients (risk)?
• Not sustainableNot sustainable
- Paradigm of industry is not directly transferable to agriculture
Industry vs. Agriculture
Hoshiba, S. 2002. In: Greenhouse Gases and Animal Agriculture
MSU Extension Dairy Team, 2006
Dairy Production SystemDairy Production System
http://www.mdr.msu.edu
methane,ammonia
methane,ammonia
methane,ammonia
methane,ammonia
NRC (2003) Committee:NRC (2003) Committee:Scientific EvaluationScientific Evaluation
Commissioned by USDA and US EPACommissioned by USDA and US EPA
Percent of Total US Air Percent of Total US Air EmissionsEmissions
NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NH3-N N2O-N NOx-N CH4-C VOCs
Source - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ag & natural land 36 25 5 1 NA~?
Ag Animals 50 25 1 18 NA~?
Fossil/ biofuel burning 7 25 88 53 42
Industrial processes 0 25 1 0 49
Ag burning 4 0 3 2 5
Landfills 4 0 3 24 0
Total, Tg 2.8 0.4 7.6 30.9 24.3
1 Tg = 1 teragram = 1 million metric tonnes
ammonia, nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, methane, VOCs
The (single) farm as a The (single) farm as a system system
Crops
Animals
Manure
Feeds
FARFARMM
Farm boundary
EnvironmeEnvironmentnt
EnvironmeEnvironmentnt
In- and outflow of In- and outflow of nutrientsnutrients
Crops Animals
ManureFeeds
The farm as a system
EnvironmeEnvironmentnt
EnvironmeEnvironmentnt
Inorganic P
Meat & Milk
Emissions, runoffEmissions,
dust
Imports
Exports
The farm The farm (F-x) as a sub- as a sub-systemsystem
F-4
F-1
F-6
F-8
F-7
F-3
F-5
F-9….
F-2
Envi
ronm
e
Envi
ronm
e
ntnt
Enviro
nme
Enviro
nme
ntnt
U.S. U.S. farmsfarms Outflows
Inflows
Systems are:Systems are:
• Artificial – imposed by humans
• Hierarchical structure– Systems of lower levels are sub-systems of
higher levels– Higher systems create new entities
• e.g., trade organizations, cooperatives, markets
– Systems are embedded in an environment• Material and energy flows amongst each other• Interact with each other
The farm as a sub-system
If the System is all livestock and If the System is all livestock and crop farms, where does the crop farms, where does the
PhosphorusPhosphorus in corn distiller’s in corn distiller’s grains come from?!grains come from?!
F-4
F-1
F-6
F-8
F-7
F-3
F-5
F-9…
F-2
Specific example of systems-approach
Answer:Answer:
Specific example of systems-approach
Origin of P accumulating in U.S.-Agricultural System
Net phosphorus flowNet phosphorus flow• NotNot added to the system by corn
distiller’s grains– Just not re-distributed evenly
• Inflow of P to the system– Mined inorganic P (feed, fertilizer)– May not (does not!) counterbalance P outflow
U.S.-agricultural system
P in Distiller’s GrainsP in Distiller’s Grains• Dairy industry takes on an industrial waste Dairy industry takes on an industrial waste
product (DGs) and transforms (part of) it into product (DGs) and transforms (part of) it into a valuable product (milk).a valuable product (milk).
• Who is the Who is the polluter?polluter?
• Who is the Who is the (re)mediator?(re)mediator?
• Question:Question: Environmental cost?!Environmental cost?!
• Who is and should be responsible?Who is and should be responsible?
Criteria of evaluation?Criteria of evaluation?1. Profitability, economic efficiency
Bottom line for farms (sub-systems)
2. Input of fossil fuel (energy)
3. Environmental loadEcological sustainability or stewardship
4. Animal welfare
5. Human welfare (social benefit)
Kawakami et al., 2000.
Agricultural production systems
Criteria of evaluation?Criteria of evaluation?1. Profitability, economic efficiency
– Bottom line for farms (sub-systems)2. Input of fossil fuel (energy)
– Net addition of CO2
3. Environmental load(P, C, N; chem. species?)
4. Animal welfare5. Human welfare
(social benefit)
Agricultural production systems
Kawakami et al., 2000.
How to assess these? They may not affect bottom line directly.
Cost of environmental Cost of environmental loadload
• Time lag• Partially ‘exported’ into ‘environment’ (the
community)– Who is responsible for cost of environmental ‘clean
up’? e.g., from EtOH production?– Up-front cost (prevention) cheaper?– How is farmer paid for compliance?– Cheap food policy vs. environmental protection??– Climate/ environmental market potential for
farmers?
Agricultural production systems
Dynamic over timeDynamic over timeThe farm as a
subsystem
Enviro
nm
e
Enviro
nm
e
nt
ntEnvironment
Environment
Exploring the Environment:N-S-P-E-C-T
System
TechnologicalTechnological•Energy•Military
•Information and Media•Mech., Transport &
Manufact.CulturalCultural
•Lifestyle, Leisure & Entertmt
•Religion & Spirituality•Literature and Art
•Fashion•Ethics
EconomicEconomic•Taxation
•Global Trade•Income Distribution
•Inflation & Interest Rates
PoliticalPolitical•Prevailing Ideologies•Forms of Government•Political Leadership
•Constitution
SocialSocial•Social Organizations
•Laws, Order & Regulations•Health, Safety & Security•Pop. Dynmcs & Employ
NaturalNatural•Biodiversity•Resources
•Climate
Adapted from R. Bawden, MSU
System evolves over System evolves over timetime
• System embedded in environment
• Forces from environment– System affects environment
–N-S-P-E-C-T perspectives
• Actions within the system
• Strategy:Strategy: Actively affect Actively affect environment environment (vs. passively being affected)
Predicting the FuturePredicting the Future• Anticipate changes and developments in
the system and its environment– Goal: Prepare farm (sub-system) for future
success
• CHALLENGE: “Try to avoid getting the future wrong vs. the impossible task of getting it absolutely right.”
R. Bawden: Scenario Planning as an Experiential Exercise in Social, Reflexive and Transformational
Learning
““Prediction is very difficult, Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future” – especially about the future” – Niels Niels
BohrBohr1. “Heavier-than-air machines are impossible.” –
Lord Kelvin, 1895, British mathematician, physicist, and President of the Royal Society
2. “I think that there is a world market for about 5 computers.” – Thomas Watson, 1943, Chairman of IBM
3. “We don’t like their sound. Groups with guitars are on their way out.” – Decca Recording executive, 1962, on turning down the Beatles for a recording contract
Cerf and Navasky, 1984. The Experts Speak. Pantheon Books.
Predicting the future??
Factors of future Factors of future scenariosscenarios
Predicting the future using N-S-P-E-C-T
Imp
act
UncertaintyLow Lo
w
High
High
Critical cohort of influences
R. Bawden: Scenario Planning as an Experiential Exercise in Social, Reflexive and Transformational
Learning
Examples for dairy Examples for dairy farmingfarming
Predicting the future using N-S-P-E-C-T
Domain Impact Uncertainty
Emission regulations
Land prices (biofuels influence)
Animal welfare (confinement)
Availability of feeds
Nutrient management
Use of hormones
Antibiotics
Climate profit centers, exchanges
Role of THE Extension Role of THE Extension Educator?Educator?
1. Recognizes changes progressive
2. ‘Imagine into existence’ future scenarios
3. Anticipates (N-S-P-E-C-T): social benefits, potential climate/environmental profit potential climate/environmental profit centerscenters, exchanges, etc., etc.?
~ Initiates proactive change
4. Anticipates regulations~ Initiates pro-active change
~ Mediator between farmers & scientific
community
Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX)
Richard Sandor 2003
New source of revenue?New source of revenue?
CCX:monitoring, reporting,
verification
ENVIRONMENTAL CREDIT CORP.ENVIRONMENTAL CREDIT CORP.SUPPLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITSSUPPLYING ENVIRONMENTAL CREDITS
TO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETSTO GLOBAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
Cows Produce Credits for Cows Produce Credits for CoalCoalaa
American Electric Power Co., (AEP) Columbus, OH
• Coal Burning: produces 145 million tons
CO2 / year
Dairy and Swine Farms
• Dairy cow• Produces 365 m3 CH4/year;
(potency: CH4 = 21x CO2 )• 5 tons of CO2 equivalent; or 5 CO2 credits/year
• Via Anaerobic Digestion farms capture and destroy 5
CO2 credits/year per cow; burn methane for power
- - - - - - a a Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007
Cows Produce Credits for Cows Produce Credits for CoalCoalaa
American Electric Power Co., (AEP) Columbus, OH
• Coal Burning: produces 145 million tons
CO2 / year
• AEP to buy 600,000 CO2 credits/year from
~ 200 dairy and hog farms
• 0.4% of AEPs annual global-warming emissions
• Real reductions (1 to 5%/year) mandated
Dairy and Swine Farms
• Dairy cow• Produces 365 m3 CH4/year;
(potency: CH4 = 21x CO2 )• 5 tons of CO2 equivalent; or 5 CO2 credits/year
• Via Anaerobic Digestion farms capture and destroy 5
CO2 credits/year per cow; burn methane for power
- - - - - - a a Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007Wall Street Journal, June 14, 2007
Michigan Conservation & Climate Michigan Conservation & Climate InitiativeInitiative
• MCCI provides access to US market for C offset credits for producers & landowners (CCX)
• Joint Project: MI Assoc. Conservation Districts, MDA, Delta Insitute• Conservation tillage, permanent grass plantings, tree planting, anaerobic manure
digesters• Supported by: MI Corn Marketing & Growers Assoc., MDEQ, MFB, MNLA, PF,
USDA Farmer Service Agency, USDA NRCS--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Percent of Total US Air Percent of Total US Air EmissionsEmissions aa
NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NRC (2003) & Van Aardenne et al (2001)NH3-N N2O-N NOx-N CH4-C VOCs
Source - - - - - - - - - - - - Percent of Total - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Ag & natural land 36 25 5 1 NA~?
Ag Animals 50 25 1 18 NA~?
Fossil/ biofuel burning 7 25 88 53 42
Industrial processes 0 25 1 0 49
Ag burning 4 0 3 2 5
Landfills 4 0 3 24 0
Total, Tg 2.8 0.4 7.6 30.9 24.3
1 Tg = 1 teragram = 1 million metric tonnes
ammonia, nitrous oxide, nitric oxide, methane, VOCs
Emissions measurementsEmissions measurements• Newly established
MSU Animal Air Quality Research Facilities
• Strategies to reduce CH4 and NH3 pre- and post-excretion Climate Credits
Experimental Approach
Discussion!Discussion!--------------------------------------------------------------------
Two Questions ?Two Questions ?• What are
current and future environmental opportunities for animal agriculture?
• What should be and/or are Extension’s roles?
http://[email protected]
Thanks!Thanks!