working group presentation for discussion purposes … · 2012. 10. 16. · working group...
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www.eia.gov U.S. Energy Information Administration Independent Statistics & Analysis
Annual Energy Outlook 2013: Electricity Working Group Meeting 2
October 11, 2012
Electricity Working Group Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis Office of Energy Analysis
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Key changes from AEO 2012 • Projection extended to 2040
• Representation of Clean Air Interstate Rule (CAIR) after U.S. Court of Appeals vacated Cross-State Air Pollution Rule (CSAPR)
• Continued to coordinate with Survey Team and Statistics Group to:
– Update representation of planned capacity additions
– Update representation of plant retirements
• Refined representation of the Mercury and Air Toxic Standards (MATS) to include oil steam units
2 Electricity Working Group October 11, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO 2013 Relevant Assumptions
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• MATS compliance (either retrofits or retirements) begins in 2016 (assuming a one-year reprieve)
• 30 states and the District of Columbia have enforceable Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
• Wind production tax credits (PTC) expire at the end of 2012
• Solar investment tax credit (ITC) reverts from 30% to a permanent 10% ITC in 2016
• All other renewable technology tax credits expire at the end of 2013
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
AEO 2013 Nuclear Power Assumptions
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• Assume Vogtle, VC Summer, & Watts Bar are completed – Vogtle Units 3 & 4 (2016 & 2017 online) and Summer Units 2 & 3 (2017 & 2018
online) each have COL’s
– Watts Bar reports an online date of 2015
• Same handling of retirements and uprates as AEO 2012 – Assume 7.7GW of uprates, including the 1.2 GW reported to EIA
– Assume 7.1GW of retirements, including the 2019 retirement of Oyster Creek
• No assumed additional retirements after 2035 – Plants that reach their 60th year of operation during this time period completed
construction after the Three Mile Island incident (i.e. many safety-related retrofits have already been completed)
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
SAIC Infrastructure Capital Cost of New Technologies
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Overnight Capital Cost (2012$/kW)
AEO 2012 New SAIC % Change
Coal Advanced PC w/o CCS $2,941 $2,934 0% Advanced PC CCS $4734 $4727 0% IGCC w/o CCS $3,330 $3,784 14% IGCC CCS $5,531 $6,599 19%
Natural Gas Conventional NGCC $1,031 $917 -11% Advanced NGCC $1,037 $1,023 -1% Advanced NGCC with CCS $2,131 $2,095 -2% Conventional CT $1,007 $973 -3% Advanced CT $689 $676 -2%
Nuclear Nuclear $5,518 $5,525 0%
Renewables Biomass $3,991 $4,114 3% MSW - Landfill Gas $8,515 $8,312 -2% Wind $2,520 $2,214 -12% Wind Offshore $6,179 $6,230 1% Solar Thermal $4,852 $5,067 4% Photovoltaic $4,918 $3,873 -21%
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Preliminary Run Results based on runs of 10/04/2012
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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Summary Results
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• Demand slightly lower throughout the forecast, although the trend is the same
• Higher coal prices than AEO 2012, while natural gas prices are slightly lower
• Overall coal plant retirements roughly the same (more reported retirements)
• Increasing use of natural gas for electric generation
• Capacity additions continue to be dominated by natural gas and renewable technologies
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Annual Rate of Growth Continues to Slow
8
percent growth (3-year rolling average)
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Projections
History 2012
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013, (preliminary), Annual Energy Review, 2013
Electricity Working Group October 11, 2012
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Annual Growth 1950s 9.8% 1960s 7.3% 1970s 4.7% 1980s 2.9% 1990s 2.4%
2000-2011 0.9% 2011-2040 0.8%
Total Electricity Sales
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2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
5500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO 2013 AEO 2012 Projection History
Billion kWh
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary)
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Power Sector Fuel Prices
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Coal AEO 2013 Coal AEO 2012
Natural Gas AEO 2013 Natural Gas AEO 2012
History Projection
2011$/MMBtu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal Generation
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0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO 2013 AEO 2012
Billion kWh
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
Projection History
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Generation Shares by Fuel Source for 2008, 2011, 2035, and 2040
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2008 2011
Coal
Natural Gas
Nuclear
Renewable
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
2035 AEO2012 Reference Case
2035 AEO2013 Reference Case
2040, AEO2013 Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal Plant Retirements • 27.5 GW’s of retirements reported to EIA through 2021
• Additional 22 GW’s of retirements through the NEMS model
• Coal retirements and natural gas use are sensitive to several key factors, particularly electricity demand, natural gas prices and coal prices, and environmental regulations
• Slightly higher amount of capacity retired by 2035 than in AEO 2012
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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal Plant Retirements through 2035
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11
22
36
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
AEO 2013 AEO 2012
Retired by NEMS Reported to EIA
Gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Coal Plant Retirements
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0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 AEO 2012 AEO 2013
Gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Compliance Actions in the First Year of MATS Implementation
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21 30
23 6
49 58
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AEO 2013 AEO 2012
DSI retrofits Retirements FGD installations
Gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Nuclear Generation
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600
800
1000
1200
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO 2013 AEO 2012
History Projection
Billion kWh
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Power Sector Fuel Prices
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0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Coal AEO 2013 Coal AEO 2012
Natural Gas AEO 2013 Natural Gas AEO 2012
History Projection
2011$/MMBtu
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Natural Gas Generation
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0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO 2013 AEO 2012
Implementation of MATS
Billion kWh
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
History
Projection
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Renewable Generation
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0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO 2013 AEO 2012
Billion kWh
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
Projection History
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Renewable Generation Breakdown
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299 297 312
56 50 47 136 124 146
251 194 194
110 69 44
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
AEO 2013 (2040) AEO 2013 (2035) AEO 2012 (2035) Hydro Geothermal Biomass Wind Solar
Billion kWh
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Comparison of Capacity Additions through 2035 for AEO 2012 and AEO 2013
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0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
Coal Natural Gas Nuclear Renewables
AEO 2013 (2035) AEO 2012 (2035)
Gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
More retirements of oil-gas steam units leads to greater need for capacity
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Cumulative Capacity Additions by Fuel Type, AEO2013 Reference Case
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Renewable Sources Nuclear Power Natural Gas Coal
Gigawatts
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary)
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WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Cumulative electricity generating capacity additions, 2012-2035 and 2012-2040
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Gigawatts
9 8 12
214 167 131
11
6 9
106
68 59
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
AEO2013: 2012-2040 AEO2013: 2012-2035 AEO2012: 2012-2035
Coal Natural Gas/Oil Nuclear Renewables/Other
249 211
340
Electricity Working Group October 11, 2012
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary) and Annual Energy Outlook 2012
CO2 Emissions
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1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
AEO 2013 AEO 2012
Million metric tons
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (preliminary), AEO 2012: Full Release Reference Case
Projection Historical
WORKING GROUP PRESENTATION FOR DISCUSSION PURPOSES DO NOT QUOTE OR CITE AS RESULTS ARE SUBJECT TO CHANGE
Contacts • J. Alan Beamon, Director, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear,
and Renewables Analysis; (202) 586-2025; [email protected]
• Jim Diefenderfer, Team Leader, Electricity Analysis Team, Office of Electricity, Coal, Nuclear, and Renewables Analysis; (202) 586-2432; [email protected]
• Electricity Analysis Team Members: – Jeff Jones (202) 586-2038 Mike Leff (202) 586-1297 – Laura Martin (202) 586-1494 Marie Rinkoski Spangler (202) 586-2446 – Lori Aniti (202) 586-2867 Carrie Milton (202) 586-1130
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For more information
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U.S. Energy Information Administration home page | www.eia.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/steo
Annual Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/aeo
International Energy Outlook | www.eia.gov/ieo
Monthly Energy Review | www.eia.gov/mer
EIA Information Center email: [email protected]
Electricity Working Group October 11, 2012