workforce planning and succession management truth & myth
TRANSCRIPT
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Workforce Planning and Succession Management
Truth & Myth Presented by Andrew Marty
Managing Director SACS Consulting
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Objectives
• To consider why the boom in workforce planning and succession management has happened
• To review current approaches • To review the evidence of what works • To consider an optimum approach based on
this.
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A Brief History
• Myth no 1 – “It’s new” • Forms of WFP have been used by the military
as far back as the Napoleonic era • Henry Ford and turnover of 150% • In the US in excess of 80% of fortune 500
companies had WFP in the ’50s. Now it is less than 40%. Why?
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Why the decline in WFP?
• Different careers – less predictable • Different world – more changeable • The WFPs did not work – “spurious accuracy” • Also, talent became more freely available as
traditional career structures weakened.
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Why is it rising again?
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0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
NET ANNUAL GROWTH IN WORKFORCE POPULATION AUSTRALIA 2005 TO 2060 – Courtesy Hadley Sides,
Stonnington City Council
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The Rise of WFP
• Necessity is once more the mother of invention • Newer approaches are more flexible and less
mechanistic • Better results.
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Current Approaches to WFP
• Huge diversity in approaches and models • Strategic to a greater or lesser degree • Complicated WFP models, often circular • Long term planning – up to 10 years • Very specific succession planning design.
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Some workforce planning models
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A DSTO Model
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WA Government Model
GAP ANALYSIS
EVAL
UATIO
N
ASSUMPTIONS
FEEDBACK
FORECASTING
PLANNING
IMPLEMENTING
• Social• Technical• Economic• Public Sector
employment
Demographic Data• Occupation• Salary, etcTrend Data• Staff Movement• Leave Usage• Salary Profile, etc
• Replacement Staff
• Contingent Workforce
ORGANISATION DIRECTION ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INTERNAL LABOUR EXTERNAL LABOUR
SUPPLYSCENARIO BUILDING
• Internal staff movements
• Recruitment & selection
• Working conditions• Leave mgt
• Training & development
• Promotion / transfer• Succession
planning• Career planning
• Budgets• Remuneration• Workplace/Ent
Agreements• Incentives &
allowances
• Technology upgrades
• Accommodation • Fleet vehicles
HUMAN RESOURCES STAFF DEVELOPMENT FINANCE/BUDGETS LOGISTICAL
ANALYSING• Strategic planning• Budget forecasts• New equipment• Inflows and outflows• Working practices• Workforce culture• Reward system
STRATEGIC, PROCESS & OPERATIONAL CHANGES
DEMAND
EVAL
UATIO
N
ASSUMPTIONS
FEEDBACK
FORECASTING
PLANNING
IMPLEMENTING
• Social• Technical• Economic• Public Sector
employment
Demographic Data• Occupation• Salary, etcTrend Data• Staff Movement• Leave Usage• Salary Profile, etc
• Replacement Staff
• Contingent Workforce
ORGANISATION DIRECTION ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INTERNAL LABOUR EXTERNAL LABOUR
SUPPLYSCENARIO BUILDING
• Internal staff movements
• Recruitment & selection
• Working conditions• Leave mgt
• Training & development
• Promotion / transfer• Succession
planning• Career planning
• Budgets• Remuneration• Workplace/Ent
Agreements• Incentives &
allowances
• Technology upgrades
• Accommodation • Fleet vehicles
HUMAN RESOURCES STAFF DEVELOPMENT FINANCE/BUDGETS LOGISTICAL
ANALYSING• Strategic planning• Budget forecasts• New equipment• Inflows and outflows• Working practices• Workforce culture• Reward system
STRATEGIC, PROCESS & OPERATIONAL CHANGES
DEMAND
ASSUMPTIONS
FEEDBACK
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
PLANNINGPLANNING
IMPLEMENTINGIMPLEMENTING
• Social• Technical• Economic• Public Sector
employment
Demographic Data• Occupation• Salary, etcTrend Data• Staff Movement• Leave Usage• Salary Profile, etc
• Replacement Staff
• Contingent Workforce
ORGANISATION DIRECTION ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INTERNAL LABOUR EXTERNAL LABOUR
SUPPLYSCENARIO BUILDING
• Internal staff movements
• Recruitment & selection
• Working conditions• Leave mgt
• Training & development
• Promotion / transfer• Succession
planning• Career planning
• Budgets• Remuneration• Workplace/Ent
Agreements• Incentives &
allowances
• Technology upgrades
• Accommodation • Fleet vehicles
HUMAN RESOURCES STAFF DEVELOPMENT FINANCE/BUDGETS LOGISTICAL
ANALYSINGANALYSING• Strategic planning• Budget forecasts• New equipment• Inflows and outflows• Working practices• Workforce culture• Reward system
STRATEGIC, PROCESS & OPERATIONAL CHANGES
DEMAND
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Federal Government Model
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Government of California
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What Should a Workforce Planning Model be?
• As simple as possible – WFP is a big project, and clarity for all stakeholders is critical
• Should make it clear what the components are and what needs to be done at all stages
• Should guide action • Should be a storehouse for an organisation’s
intellectual capital on workforce matters.
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Strategy
• The value you get out of WFP will be determined by the clarity of your strategy
• Many organisations think they have a strategy, but what they have is a vision, or tactics
• True strategy says “In 3 years we are going to be in the following businesses so we will need to be the following size and shape”
• WFP puts the acid on strategy!
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Here is our contribution
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SACS Model
NB: default state is flatline, in absence of confident forecasts
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current State
Future State People
Plan 1 People Plan 2
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SACS Model
The Environment
Current State
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Current State and Environment
• Where are you now? – Demographics – ageing, gender, diversity, etc – Modelling staff retention and turnover – Location issues – Talent gaps and hard to resource areas
• Benchmarking on all of the above and consideration of environmental factors – competition, numbers of graduates, etc
• A fascinating exercise and one which yields immediate value.
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SACS Model
The Environment The Environment
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current State
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Enablers
• These are the levers we use to develop our talent – Leadership – Recruitment – Talent management – training, coaching,
induction, etc – Succession management
• The “build or buy” question in developing the workforce of the future.
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Myth No. 2
• “It’s the processes that matter.” • Many organisations act that way, but processes
in the end simply enable good leadership. Positive, supportive, engaging leadership is universally being demonstrated by research to be the driver of workplace health
• Good leadership with bad process is way better than bad leadership with even perfect process
• Get your leadership culture right first.
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The foundations of cultural vitality.
Esteem – valuing, recognising, supporting
Alignment – outcomes focus, cascading of strategic intent, clarity about acceptable behaviours, performance development Belonging – team inclusion and cohesion, collaborative decision making, justice
Growth – job satisfaction, learning by doing, coaching
“New Brain” emotional tone Optimism, positivity, future focus
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SACS Model
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current State
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Determine a Time Horizon
• Naturally, coincide with the corporate plan • Myth no 3 – “Go Long!” • Recent research shows that the organisational
forecasts are wrong by 30% on average (Cappelli, 2008)
• If we invest effort in planning beyond 3, or a maximum of 4 years, we are kidding ourselves
• Incidentally, the same goes for much general strategy development
• We suggest two years with a rolling reforecast.
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SACS Model
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current State
Future State
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Define the Future State
• Realistic projections based on current state and forecasts of future needs. What businesses are we going to be in, and how will we deliver them?
• The shorter the time frame the greater the confidence
• Consider projections about the environment – demographic forecasts, competitor activity, regulatory frameworks, government policy, projected numbers of graduates, etc.
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SACS Model
NB: default state is flatline, in absence of confident forecasts
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current State
Future State People
Plan 1 People Plan 2
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Annual People Plans
• Each year of the life of the WFP will be enacted through tactical people plans
• Clear activities and objectives, as well as measures to assess their success – Specific – Measurable – Achievable – Realistic – Trackable
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Flatline Forecasting
• Where strategy is deficient in a particular area, we make the forecast a flatline, based on previous trends
• Not as valuable, but can still be worthwhile. Shows how difficult it can be just to stand still!
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Finally,
• Doesn’t need to be circular – base it on a rolling reforecast, annually. The model is therefore constantly correcting and moving forward
• Can be reset from any point in time – say a major change in strategy
• It suggests what needs to be done.
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SACS Model
NB: default state is flatline, in absence of confident forecasts
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current State
Future State People
Plan 1 People Plan 2
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The Succession Challenge
• What about positions which need more than, say, two years to be resourced?
• What about unique, hard to fill positions? • Myth no. 4 – “Good businesses must have
targetted succession plans”
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Traditional Succession Planning
Anointed Anointed
Partly anointed
Somewhat anointed Ignored
Big Boss
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Doesn’t Work!
• The leadership “pipeline” is actually a sieve • Like WFP, succession planning which is position
based is doomed to fail • In both, you need to identify competency
“families” which allow you to achieve your KRAs • For unique, one-off roles, you will need to
headhunt. The succession effort rarely pays off for such roles.
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Competency Families
Business Development
Key Result Areas
Financial Analytical
Ability
Policy Development Procurement
Bench Strength Underpinned by characteristics of high performers and
future leaders
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The Competency Myth
• Many organisations develop competency matrices based on constructs: – Professionalism – Customer service orientation – Collaborative Leadership, etc
• There is increasing evidence that these, whilst giving a good feeling, achieve little in terms of improvement in organisational performance
• Constructs are incredibly hard to get right • Behaviours work much better.
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Multiple Performance Dimensions: Performance in context (Griffin et al., 2007)
Individual Work Role Behaviours
Proficiency Fulfils the prescribed or predictable requirements of the role
Adaptiveness and flexibility Copes with, responds to, and supports change
Proactiveness Initiates change, is self-starting and future-directed
Individual Task Behaviours Behaviour contributes to individual effectiveness
Individual Task Proficiency e.g. ensures core tasks are completed properly
Individual Task Adaptiveness e.g. adjusts to new equipment, processes, or procedures in core tasks
Individual Task Proactiveness e.g. initiates better way of doing tasks
Team Member Behaviours Behaviour contributes to team effectiveness rather than individual effectiveness
Team Member Proficiency e.g. coordinates work with team members
Team Member Adaptiveness e.g. responds constructively to team changes (e.g. new members)
Team Member Proactiveness e.g. develops new methods to help the team perform better
Organisation Member Behaviours Behaviour contributes to organisation effectiveness rather than individual and team effectiveness
Organisation Member Proficiency e.g. talks about the organisation in positive ways
Organisation Member Adaptiveness e.g. copes with changes in the way the organisation operates
Organisation Member Proactiveness e.g. makes suggestions to improve the overall efficiency of the organisation
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Characteristics of High Performers & Future Leaders
• Intelligence – Verbal reasoning – Numerical reasoning – Abstract reasoning
• Integrity
– EG Reid Report
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Characteristics of High Performers & Future Leaders • Personality – the HEXACO model is the most
recent and most powerful predictor – particularly of negative behaviours – Honesty/Humility - high for all hires – Emotionality – low for all hires – eXtraversion – depends on job – Agreeableness – depends on job – Conscientiousness – high for all hires – Openness – depends on job.
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IDENTIFICATION
OF HIGH PERFORMERS -“EXEMPLARS”
AND THEIR KRAs
HIGH PERFORMANCE MODEL
Use the psychological tests and their scale scores which pick out the high performers.
List the competencies which all your high performers have
in common. Write behavioural interview
questions and a simple scoring system for each.
Behavioural Interviews What skills, knowledge, values and attitudes do they have in common?
Psychological testing What psychological characteristics do
they have in common?
High Performance Modelling
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Conclusion
• Get your strategy right. You will get greater benefit from your workforce plan if you can predict specifically where you are going
• Make it short term, with competency families identified for the longer term
• Base succession planning on competency families
• Be very careful about developing competency constructs – consider using Griffin’s framework – behaviour based.