workfare and flexicurity – the danish case
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Workfare and Flexicurity – The Danish Case. Torben M. Andersen Aarhus University CEPR, CESifo and IZA. Danish Characteristics. Low unemployment rate High labour force participation Low working hours. Unemployment and the crisis. Structural unemployment. Flexicurity. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
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Workfare and Flexicurity – The Danish Case
Torben M. AndersenAarhus University
CEPR, CESifo and IZA
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Danish Characteristics
• Low unemployment rate
• High labour force participation
• Low working hours
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Unemployment and the crisis
Registrered unemployment
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2006
M01
2006
M04
2006
M07
2006
M10
2007
M01
2007
M04
2007
M07
2007
M10
2008
M01
2008
M04
2008
M07
2008
M10
2009
M01
2009
M04
2009
M07
2009
M10
2010
M01
%
Structural unemployment
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Flexicurity
• Flexible hiring and firing rules for employers combined with social security for employees: flexicurity
• Conducive for job-creation and restructuring etc.
• Collective risk sharing for workers
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Employment protection - index
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
epl i
nd
ex
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Strong perceived job security
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Some facts about the Danish case:
• Flexicurity was also in place in the high unemployment period in the 1970s and 1980s
• A series of supply side reforms in the 1990s made the model work better
• Unemployment benefits are only generous for low income groups
• Incentive structure is maintained via active labour market policy
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The three pillars of the Flexicurity-model
• Insurance vs. incentives
• The model presumes that unemployment is a temporary state
• Balance between the three pillars is essential
Flexible hiring/firing rules
UnemploymentInsurance Active labour
market policy
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Labour market reforms in the mid 1990s
• Shorter duration of the benefit period
• Stricter eligibility conditions
• Activation (workfare)
Short term insurance maintained, but incentives strengthened
Flexible hiring/firing rules
UnemploymentInsurance Active labour
market policy
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Incentives and distributional constraints
• Lower benefits: distributional constraint
• Activation: unchanged benefits but strengthened incentives
• Rights and duties
• Better incentives for binding distributional constraint?
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Effects of activation
• Ex ante– Threat/motivation
effect: higher opportunity costs of claiming uib = more job search, lower reservation demands
– Sorting (claiming benefits, but not interested in jobs)
• Locking-in effect – less search during participation
• Ex post: – Improved
qualifications– More
realistic/efficient job search
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Policy regime comes at a cost!Expenditures on ALMP as a share of GDP
0
0,2
0,4
0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
Denm
ark
Nethe
rland
s
Sweden
Belgiu
m
Ger
man
y
Franc
e
Finlan
d
Norway
Portu
gal
Spain
Irelan
d
Austri
a
Bulga
ria Ita
ly
Unite
d Kin
gdom
Slova
k Rep
ublic
Hunga
ry
Czech
Rep
ublic
Lith
uani
a
Latv
ia
Roman
ia
Eston
ia
Gre
ece
% o
f G
DP
EU average
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Some characteristics of the Danish labour market
• High job-turnover
• Short average job tenure
• High incidence of short term unemployment
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Firms
Industrial structure:
• Few large firms, many small- and medium sized firms
• Collective risk sharing
• Institutional competitiveness
• The scheme is an indirect subsidy to firms/sectors with high variability in production
• Firms pay uib only the first two days
• High incidence of unemployed workers returning to previous employer
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The test – can the model also cope with a large negative shock?
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0,6
0,8
1
1,2
1,4
1,6
1,8
2
OECD Gennemsnit
•Not higher employment variability relative to GDP variations than other countries
•Possible to sustain effective ALMP with much higher unemployment?
•Possible to maintain active policy line when unemployment is high/increasing?
Employment adjustment during the financial crisis
Employment change relative to output change
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Can the model be copied?
– Complementarities: EPL, Unemployment benefits and active labour market policies
– Industrial structure
– Political support (conditioned on low unemployment?)