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Wood ResourceQuarterly

1© 2016 Wood Resources International 4Q/2015

Wood Resource QuarterlyGlobal Forest Products Market Update - 4th Quarter 2015

February 29, 2016Seattle, USA

Dear reader,

The log market in the Baltic Sea is one of the most active log markets in the world with softwood log tradeaccounting for more than 20% of global trade. In this issue’s Special Report we report on the recent trends inthe trade of pulplogs and sawlogs in Northern Europe.

The costs for sawlogs and pulpwood fell again throughout the world in the 4Q/15 because of weakeningdemand for most forest products. The global sawlog price index has declined almost 17% in a year, while thepulpwood price indices have fallen between 7-10% from the 4Q/14.

Global wood raw-material indices (WRI) for the 4Q/2015 are as follows: Change Q/Q Y/Y

Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) US$ 68.45/m3 -2.6 % -14.7 %European Sawlog Price Index (ESPI) US$ 91.00/m3 -3.1 % -18.1 %

Softwood Wood Fiber Price Index (SFPI) US$ 88.46/odmt -1.4 % -7.5 %Hardwood Wood Fiber Price Index (HFPI) US$ 84.27/odmt -2.2 % -10.0 %

Overseas traded softwood chips (PIX-SCG) US$164.54/odmt (Nov) (-5.4% y/y)Overseas traded hardwood chips (PIX-HCG) US$175.92/odmt (Nov) (-0.9% y/y)

Happy Reading.

Sincerely,

Håkan Ekström, Editor-in-Chief

Mark your calendars:

· The fourth annual Mapping the Course conference, covering timberland, forest resources, forestproducts processing and woody biomass issues in Western North America in 2017 will be held inVancouver, Washington, Jan 19th 2017 (www.westernforestry.org).


2 © 2016 Wood Resources International4Q/2015

Table of Contents - WRQ 4Q/2015

The global forest industry this quarter ........................................................................ 3

World pulpwood price review by region ............................................................................. 4

Global delivered pulpwood prices ...................................................................................... 6

Global wood fiber price indices (SFPI and HFPI) .............................................................. 7

Relative fiber costs for major pulp grades .......................................................................... 8

Special Report: Trade of logs in the Baltic Sea region ............................................... 10

Global pulp market update ................................................................................................ 11

Global lumber market update .............................................................................................12

Global biomass market update .......................................................................................... 15

Global sawlog market update and price indices ...................................................................16

Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets - USA ..........................................................................19US South ............................................................................................................ 20US Northwest ..................................................................................................... 21

Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets - Canada .................................................................... 22Canada West ...................................................................................................... 23Canada East ....................................................................................................... 24

Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets - Europe and Russia .................................................. 25Finland ................................................................................................................ 26Norway .............................................................................................................. 27Sweden ............................................................................................................... 28France ................................................................................................................ 29Austria ................................................................................................................ 30Germany ............................................................................................................. 31Spain .................................................................................................................. 32Estonia, Latvia, Poland and the Czech Republic ......................................................33Northwest Russia ................................................................................................ 34

Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets - Latin America ..........................................................35Brazil .................................................................................................................. 36Chile ................................................................................................................... 37

Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets - Asia and Oceania .................................................... 38Australia ............................................................................................................. 39New Zealand ...................................................................................................... 40China ................................................................................................................. 41Indonesia ............................................................................................................ 43Japan, Domestic and Imported Sawlog Prices ....................................................... 44Japan, Conifer Pulpwood Prices and Imports ......................................................... 45Japan, Non-Conifer Pulpwood Prices and Imports ................................................. 46

Pacific Rim Wood Chip Trade and Japan chip import prices ................................................47

Major pulp and conifer sawnwood producing countries ...................................................... 48Pulpwood Fiber Consumption and Principal Species ........................................................... 49Recent Articles in the WRQ and List of Conference Presentations ..................................... 51Sources, Subscription Information, Disclaimer and Copyright Laws ..................................... 52



The Global Forest Industry this QuarterGlobal timber markets

The Global Sawlog Price Index(GSPI) continued its two year de-cline in the 4Q/15 when the Indexfell another 4.8% quarter-over-quarter to US$68.45/m3. In just twoyears, the GSPI has fallen 21.6%due to a combination of the strength-ening US dollar and diminishing de-mand for lumber in Asia, the MENAcountries and in Europe.

Sawlog prices in Europe have gen-erally fallen faster than in other partsof the world, with the Central Euro-pean prices decreasing by almostone-third over the past two years.In the 4Q/15, the European SawlogPrice Index (ESPI) dropped toUS$91.00/m3, the lowest level sincethe 1Q/09.

Global pulpwood prices

Hardwood fiber prices continued tofall in most of the major pulp-pro-ducing countries in the world in the4Q/15. The biggest declines wereseen in Brazil, Chile, Russia, France,Germany and Indonesia. In mostregions, the price adjustments werein both in the local currencies and inUS dollar terms. The hardwoodprice index (HFPI) fell 2.2% fromthe 3Q/15 to US$84.27/odmt.

With the exception of the US Southand New Zealand, softwood fiberprices were also down throughoutthe world in the 4Q/15. The declines

Global Wood Fiber Price Indices 1988 - 4Q/2015

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$/od

mt

Softwood

Hardwood

Source: Wood Resource Quarterly

ranged between two to ten percentfrom the previous quarter. The soft-wood price index (SFPI), wasUS$88.46/odmt, a reduction of 1.4%from the previous quarter.

Global pulp markets

Global market pulp productionwas 3.3% higher in 2015 than in2014. Production was up in mostregions with the exception of West-ern Europe.

The biggest increases in pulp ex-port in 2015 were in shipmentsfrom Brazil, Canada, the Nether-lands and Russia.

NBSK pulp prices have fallen dur-ing much of 2015 but started to finda bottom late in the year. Prices forhardwood pulp (HBKP) started toweaken during the 4Q/15 and pricesin Europe were only $15-20/tonlower than those for NBSK.

Global lumber markets

A majority of the 20 largest softwoodlumber-consuming countries in theworld increased their importationof lumber in 2015, resulting in glo-bal trade reaching its highest levelin ten years. The US imported 10%more lumber year-over-year and anumber of countries in Europe alsoraised their consumption of importedlumber last year. Lumber demand

in Japan, the Middle East and North-ern Africa was weaker, resulting ina decline in importation of lumber.

The US lumber market was abright spot as compared to mostother regions of the world in 2015.Lumber consumption was up almost5% and import volumes were 10%higher. The strong domestic marketand a weakening Asian market alsoresulted in less lumber being ex-ported.

Lumber prices in Sweden havefallen 30% from their five-year highin March 2014.

Although importation of softwoodlumber to China fell by two percentin 2015 from the previous year, Rus-sian volumes were up by almost 20percent year-over-year. Russia isnow the largest supplier of lumberto China.

Demand for wood in Japan hasfallen the past two years partly asthe result of an eight percent declinein housing starts.

Global biomass markets

North American overseas pelletexports increased for the secondconsecutive quarter in the 3Q/15,rising 15% from the previous quar-ter to reach a new record high ofjust over 1.6 million tons.

Although pellet production inSweden has been fairly stable thepast four years, importation hasfallen by more than 50% from 2011to 2015. In the local currency, pel-let prices fell during the fall of 2015and were four percent lower in the4Q/15 than in the 4Q/14.

Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015

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$/m

3




World Pulpwood Price ReviewUS dollars and local currencies

Fourth Quarter 2015 Product

Avg Range Avg Range Avg Range Avg Range

US South Rwd, conifer 44 35-49 87 63-96 44 35-49 87 63-96Rwd, non-con 45 38-54 89 67-102 45 38-54 89 67-102Chips, conifer 39 35-45 77 62-88 39 35-45 77 62-88Chips, non-con 38 34-44 76 63-87 38 34-44 76 63-87

US Northwest Rwd, conifer (a) 39 27-54 89 62-123 39 27-54 89 62-123Rwd, non-con 30 14-34 81 37-91 30 14-34 81 37-91Chips, conifer 47 29-60 107 67-139 47 29-60 107 67-139Chips, non-con 36 31-41 98 83-111 36 31-41 98 83-111

Canada, East Rwd, conifer 64 47-74 161 118-186 48 35-56 121 88-139Rwd, non-con 58 40-79 115 80-158 43 30-59 86 60-118Chips, conifer 44 30-58 110 75-145 33 22-43 82 56-109Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Canada, West Rwd, conifer (a) 41 32-52 103 81-131 30 24-39 77 61-98Rwd, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)Chips, conifer 42 34-51 105 85-128 31 25-38 79 64-96Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Norway Rwd, conifer 315 304-325 818 790-844 37 35-55 96 90-141Rwd, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)Chips, conifer (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Sweden Rwd, conifer 381 356-409 989 925-1062 45 42-48 116 108-125Rwd, non-con 415 384-458 814 753-898 49 45-54 96 89-106Chips, conifer 406 358-500 1054 930-1299 48 42-56 124 110-144Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Finland Rwd, conifer 46 44-49 120 114-126 51 48-53 131 125-138Rwd, non-con 48 43-53 94 84-103 52 48-55 103 95-108Chips, conifer (c) (c) (c) (c) (c) (c) (c) (c)Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

France Rwd, conifer 49 33-62 120 80-152 54 36-68 132 88-166Rwd, non-con 41 35-50 87 73-106 45 38-55 95 80-116Chips, conifer 34 22-42 83 54-102 37 24-46 91 59-112Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Germany Rwd, conifer 35 21-49 94 56-131 38 23-54 103 62-144Rwd, non-con 50 33-61 98 65-120 55 36-67 107 71-131Chips, conifer 47 39-56 125 105-149 51 43-61 137 115-163

Domestic Price Price in US dollarsPer m3 Per odmt Per m3 Per odmt



Notes.Prices in above table represent wood fiber traded in the open market and do not include internal transfer pricing. All pricesare for wood chps and roundwood delivered to domestic wood fiber consumers. Odmt-oven dry metric ton

(a) Primarily utility grade roundwood. (d) CIF port in Japan.(b) Insufficient volume to obtain open market prices. (e) Domestic prices in 1000 Rupiah. Limited open market trade.(c) Transfer priced on local market (f) Open market volume for Eucalyptus est 15-20%, pine 35-45%

World Pulpwood Price Review

Fourth Quarter 2015

Product

Avg Range Avg Range Avg Range Avg Range

Spain Rwd, conifer 37 29-46 85 67-106 40 32-50 93 73-116Rwd, non-con 55 42-73 92 70-122 60 46-80 100 77-133Chips, conifer (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Russia, NW Rwd, conifer 1051 458-1754 2729 1189-4556 16 7-27 41 18-69Rwd, non-con 1102 356-1780 2217 716-3581 17 5-27 34 11-54

Brazil Rwd, conifer (f) 105 83-130 209 166-261 27 22-34 54 43-68Rwd, non-con (f) 115 98-132 232 198-266 30 26-34 60 52-69Chips, conifer 91 79-110 181 157-221 24 20-29 47 41-58Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Chile Rwd, conifer 18100 14000-21000 45250 35000-52500 26 20-30 65 50-75Rwd, non-con 24230 18000-31500 47510 35290-61765 35 26-45 68 51-89Chips, conifer (c) (c) (c) (c) (c) (c) (c) (c)Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

New Zealand Rwd, conifer 52 42-64 129 105-161 34 28-43 86 70-107Rwd, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)Chips, conifer 66 47-90 164 117-225 52 31-60 110 78-150Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Australia Rwd, conifer 43 27-57 103 65-136 31 20-41 74 47-98Rwd, non-con 66 53-91 121 96-165 48 38-65 87 69-119Chips, conifer 42 18-60 100 43-144 30 13-44 72 31-104Chips, non-con 72 52-87 131 94-158 52 37-63 94 68-114

Japan Chips (dom), con 6197 4910-9270 13633 10800-20400 51 40-76 112 89-168Chips (dom), non-c 10666 8765-12350 18133 14900-21000 88 72-102 149 123-173Chips (imp), con (d) 10905 8920-11610 23990 19630-25540 90 73-96 198 162-210Chips (imp), non-c (d) 13018 11135-14880 22130 18930-25290 107 92-123 182 156-208

Indonesia Rwd, conifer (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)Rwd, non-con (e) 520 360-810 1040 720-1620 38 26-59 76 53-118Chips, conifer (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)Chips, non-con (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b) (b)

Domestic Price Price in US dollarsPer m3 Per odmt Per m3 Per odmt



Global Pulpwood Prices

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - 4Q/2015

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, NW

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lia

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th

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Chips Roundwood

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - 4Q/2015

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Chips Roundwood



Global Wood Fiber Price Indices

Softwood Fiber Price Index(SFPI)

1Q/2013 99.902Q 97.753Q 97.944Q 99.511Q/2014 99.432Q 100.443Q 98.544Q 95.721Q/2015 92.402Q 91.983Q 89.644Q 88.46

Hardwood Fiber Price Index(HFPI)

1Q/2013 103.662Q 100.463Q 98.154Q 97.591Q/2014 97.012Q 98.783Q 96.764Q 93.621Q/2015 89.862Q 88.953Q 86.144Q 84.27

Softwood Fiber Price Index (SFPI)

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Note. The Global Wood Fiber Price Index is a weighted average of delivered wood fiber prices for the pulp industry in allregions tracked by the publication Wood Resource Quarterly. These regions together account for 85-90% of the world’swood-based pulp production capacity. The price is based on current quarter average prices, and country/regional woodfiber consumption data. The global average price for softwood and hardwood is calculated in nominal US$ per oven-dried metric ton of wood fiber.

Hardwood fiber prices continued to fall in most of the major pulp-producing countries in the world in the 4Q/15. The biggest declines were seen in Brazil, Chile, Russia, France, Germany and Indonesia. In most regions,the price adjustments were in both in the local currencies and in US dollar terms. The hardwood price index(HFPI) fell 2.2% from the 3Q/15 to US$84.27/odmt. This was 10% lower than in the 4Q/14.

With the exception of the US South and New Zealand, softwood fiber prices were also down throughout theworld in the 4Q/15. The declines ranged between two to ten percent from the previous quarter. The softwoodprice index (SFPI), was US$88.46/odmt, a reduction of 1.4% from the previous quarter and 7.5% lowerthan the same quarter in 2014.



Notes. Wood fiber costs remain the single largest cost component in the manufacture of wood pulp. The following graphsdepict the relationship between market pulp prices (in US$ cif Europe), and average wood fiber costs. For each grade, anaverage wood fiber cost was calculated using an average kraft pulp yield factor, current quarterly wood fiber prices, andthe average volume of wood consumed by each WRQ region manufacturing that particular grade of pulp (e.g. SBSK isproduced by Spain, the U.S. South, Brazil, Chile, New Zealand, and Australia). The resultant average wood fiber price ischarted as a percentage of the average market pulp price as reported by FOEX Indexes and the publication Pulpwatch(Hawkins Wright).

Prices for most market pulp grades fell during the 4Q/15. The weighted wood fiber costs for the manufacturingof Northern Bleached Softwood Kraft (NBSK) fell less than the pulp prices, which resulted in an increaseof the wood cost percentage to 28.8 percent of the pulp price from 28.5% in the 3Q/15.

The fiber cost share of the Southern Bleached Softwood Kraft Pulp (SBSK) price increased from 21.6percent in the 3Q/15 to 22.7 percent in the 4Q/15 because of lower SBSK pulp prices and higher wood fibercosts in a few pulp-producing regions.

The wood cost as the percentage of the Eucalyptus Bleached Kraft Pulp (EuBK) price fell to 17.1 percentin the 4Q/15, down from 23.7 percent in the same quarter of 2014. This rapid decline has been the result offairly strong markets for EuBK pulp the past year and a sharp drop in wood fiber costs for many pulp produc-ers.

Relative Wood Fiber Cost for NBSK Pulp

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Weighted Fiber Cost NBSK cif Europe Fiber Cost % (Right Axis)

Relative Fiber Costs for Major Pulp Grades



Relative Wood Fiber Cost for SBSK Pulp

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Relative Wood Fiber Cost for EucBK Pulp

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Special Report: Log Trade in the Baltic Sea Region in 2015

Trade of logs in Baltic Sea region fell 10% in2015 because of substantially lower demand forsoftwood pulplogs in Finland and Sweden

The forest industry in the Baltic Sea region has formany decades imported large volumes of wood raw-material from their neighboring countries as a comple-ment to their typically less-costly local wood sources.For example, pulp mills in Finland and Sweden im-ported approximately 18% and 15%, respectively, oftheir wood fiber needs in 2014.

The log market in the Baltic Sea is one of the mostactive markets in the world with softwood log tradeaccounting for over 20 percent of global trade, andshipments of hardwood logs reaching almost 29 per-cent of world trade of temperate hardwoods in 2015(most are birch pulplogs exported from NorthwestRussia to Finland). Finland and Sweden are the twotop importing countries, but forest companies in Ger-many and Poland have also imported substantial logvolumes over the past five years.

In 2014, total log trade to the Nordic countries reacheda six-year high of 14.3 million m3 after five years ofconsecutive increases. In 2015, total shipments fellover 10% mainly because of lower demand for soft-wood pulplogs, according to WRI estimates (seechart). Trade of softwood sawlogs on the other hand,reached its highest level since 2007 last year when 1.6million m3 was imported, most of it going to sawmillsin southern Sweden.

The major log trade flows in Northern Europe the pastfew years have been:

• Norway to Sweden (softwood) • Latvia to Sweden (softwood and hardwood) • Russia to Finland (softwood and hardwood) • Estonia to Sweden (hardwood)

The Baltic States have overtaken Russia as themajor suppliers of softwood logs to the Nordiccountries

Ten years ago, Russia exported about 7.5 million m3of softwood logs to the Nordic countries but after theintroduction of the country’s log export duties, ship-ments plunged, and over the past three years, vol-umes have rung in at just over one million m3 annually.

With the fall of Russian log exports, log exporters inthe Baltic States stepped in and the region became themajor log supplier of logs to sawmills and pulp mills inthe Nordic countries. However, over the past fouryears, shipments of softwood logs over the Baltic Seahave been in steady decline, falling from 2.9 millionm3 in 2011 to only 1.3 million m3 in 2015 with thereduced import volumes to both Sweden and Finland.

It is interesting to note that during the same period,exports of hardwood logs from the Baltic States havefallen almost 30%, while Russia has become a moreaggressive player as the weak Ruble has made Rus-sian logs more competitive.

Log Trade in the Baltic Sea Region 2004 ‐ 2015

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Softwood Log Trade Between the Baltic States and

the Nordic Countries 2006 ‐ 2015

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Pulp Market Update 4Q/15

Production of market pulp was higher

During the first eleven months of 2015, global marketpulp production was 3.3% higher than the same pe-riod in 2014, according to Pulpwatch. Production wasup in most pulp-producing regions with the exceptionof Western Europe.

The biggest increases in export shipments in 2015 werein shipment from Brazil, Canada, the Netherlands andRussia, while Chile, Indonesia, Germany and Spainexported slightly less in 2015 as compared to the pre-vious year.

NBSK pulp price are expected to start increas-ing late in the spring

Softwood pulp prices have fallen during much of 2015but started to find a bottom late in the year when main-tenance shutdowns and some production interruptionsin North America and Europe slowed down supplywhile demand was stable.

NBSK prices were reported to be just underUS$800/ton in January and several pulp companies inboth Europe and North America have started to dis-cuss price increases during the spring. However, thereis still a large spread between contract prices and themuch lower spot prices, so there will be some resis-tance to agreeing on higher contract prices over thenext few months. According to the forecasting firmBMI, NBSK prices are likely to experience upward-trending prices later in 2016 and they are forecastedto reach US$900/ton by the end of the year.

Hardwood pulp prices have continued to fall inearly 2016

Prices for hardwood pulp (HBKP) started to weakenduring the 4Q/15 and continued their decline in early2016 with buyers in China pressuring for lower prices.In late 2015, hardwood pulp prices in Europe wereonly $15-20/ton lower than that for NBSK, whichwas quite unusual. The ten-year average premium forNBSK has been approximately 90 dollars per ton.

________________________________________Note.Prices and production data are from the marketnewsletter Pulpwatch, courtesy of Hawkins Wrightin the UK (www.pulpwatch.com).Pulp price forecastscourtesy of Calejo (www.Calejo.se)

Production of market pulp Jan-Nov (million tons)

2014 2015 Chg (%) North America 13.22 13.37 +1.2 West Europe 8.70 8.60 -1.2 L.Am, NZ & Afr 17.50 18.85 +7.7 Rest of the world 9.82 10.06 +2.4 Total, world 49.24 50.88 +3.3

NBSK prices in Europe, the US and China ($/ton)

4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 Jan W. Europe 930-935 830-850 800-825 795 US 1015-1030 960-980 940-960 940 China 690-725 630-660 605-630 605

BHKP prices in Europe, the US and China ($/ton)

4Q/14 3Q/15 4Q/15 Jan W. Europe 715-735 775-820 775-810 765 US, South 830-840 885 875-885 875 China 570-610 650-695 590-685 560

Benchmark prices for market pulp in Europe2003 - 2016

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Softwood Pulp (NBSK) Hardwood Pulp (BHKP)

Sources: FOEX and industry sources

As of January 2016: NBSK: $795/ton BHKP: $780/ton



Lumber Market Update 4Q/15A majority of the 20 largest softwood lumber-consuming countries in the world increased their importation oflumber last year, resulting in global trade reaching its highest level in ten years in 2015. The US imported 10%more lumber year-over-year and a number of countries in Europe also raised their consumption of importedlumber last year. Lumber demand in Japan, the Middle East and Northern Africa was weaker in 2015, result-ing in a decline in importation of lumber.

Lumber market – North America

The US lumber market was a bright spot as com-pared to most other regions of the world in 2015. Asa result of a healthy housing market, lumber consump-tion was up almost five percent as compared to 2014and import volumes in 2015 were 10 percent higherthan in the previous year. The strong domestic marketand a weakening Asian market also resulted in lesslumber being exported in 2015. Export shipmentswere down 9.7%, while imports were up 10% from2014.

Lumber exports from Canada reached an eight-yearhigh in 2015 when sawmills took advantage of the fairlystrong US lumber market, which combined with theweak currency, allowed them to ship 9.2% more lum-ber to the US than in 2014. Shipments to China, onthe other hand, fell over 13% to the lowest level since2010.

Lumber market – Northern Europe

Lumber prices in the Nordic counties have trendeddownward since early 2014, in US dollar terms, asthe US dollar has strengthened against the Euro andthe krona. From the five-year high in March 2014,prices in Sweden have fallen almost 30%. During 2015,Swedish sawmills increased export volumes by almostfive percent as compared to the previous year, reach-ing the highest annual shipment since 2006.

Of the ten largest consumers of Swedish lumber, Ger-many, the Netherlands and China increased their im-port shipments from Sweden the most. Although theUS is still not a top destination for Swedish lumber,the country almost doubled its import volume of mainlyspruce to 260,000 m3 in 2015.

Lumber Prices in the US 2004 - 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16

US

$/m

3 (F

OB

)

Southern yellow pine

Random Length Index

Source: Random Lengths

Lumber Prices in Canada 2004 - 2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Jan-

04Ju

l-04

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Jan-

16

US

$/m

3

SPF, West (FOB)

SPF, East (del US)

Douglas-firSource: Madison Lumber Reporter

Lumber Prices in the Nordic Countries 2005 - 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan-

05Ju

l-05

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

US

$/m

3

Finland

Sweden



The Finnish sawmilling industry experienced a similartrend as that of Sweden with higher export volumes in2015. The biggest expansions in shipping volumes wereto China, Japan and Israel.

Lumber market – China

Although importation of softwood lumber to China fellby two percent in 2015 from the previous year, Rus-sian volumes were up by almost 20 percent year-over-year. Russia is now the largest supplier of lumber toChina and had a market share of 52 percent last year.Just two years ago, Russia’s share was 38 percentand Canada was the principal source of softwood lum-ber.

Lumber import prices fell throughout 2015 with aver-age values in December being 24 percent lower thanin the same month in 2014. Current import prices areat their lowest level in over ten years.

Lumber market – Japan

Demand for wood in Japan has fallen the past twoyears partly as the result of an eight percent decline inhousing starts. Domestic lumber production fell an es-timated nine percent from 2013 to 2015, and lumberimport volumes were down 20 percent from 2013.The biggest reduction in shipments to Japan has beenfrom North America and the Nordic countries.

Lumber prices have been fairly stable in both US dol-lar and Yen terms over the past 12 months. The onlyexceptions have been European whitewood, whichincreased eight percent from January 2015 to January2016, and Canadian hemlock which was up four per-cent over the same time period.

Lumber market – Russia

Russia continues to be the world’s second largest soft-wood lumber exporter behind Canada, accounting forabout 22 percent of globally traded lumber in 2015.Shipments were up to practically all markets with theexception of the CIS countries, which imported 19percent less in 2015.

Lumber Market Update 4Q/15 continued

Sources: Japan Lumber Journal (Japan), Madison Lumber Re-porter (SPF and Douglas-fir in North America), Random Lengths(pine in Southern US), Metla (Finland) and SCB (Sweden). BMIprice forecast (www.calejo.se). Additional sources are customsstatistics and the WRI’s database.

Notes. All prices are in actual m3 for kiln-dried lumber, except forSugi and Russian pine pre-2009 in Japan, which are for greenlumber

Lumber Import Prices to China 2006 - 2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

US

$/m

3

Total

Canada

Russia

Lumber Prices in Japan 2006 - 2015

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Jan-

06Ju

l-06

Jan-

07Ju

l-07

Jan-

08Ju

l-08

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

US

$/m

3

Sugi, Japan

Pine, Russia

Whitewood, Europe

Douglas-fir, US

Hemlock, Canada

Source: Japan Lumber Journal

Lumber Export Prices from Russia 2009-2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

Jan-

09Ju

l-09

Jan-

10Ju

l-10

Jan-

11Ju

l-11

Jan-

12Ju

l-12

Jan-

13Ju

l-13

Jan-

14Ju

l-14

Jan-

15Ju

l-15

Source: Customs data

US

$/m

3

Total

China



Lumber Market Update 4Q/15 continued

Major Lumber Exporting Countries(volume in million m3)

Major Lumber Importing Countries(volume in million m3)

Major Exporters of Softwood Lumber 2003 - 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Mill

ion

m3

Canada

Russia

Sweden

Finland

Major Importers of Softwood Lumber 2003 - 2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

Mill

ion

m3 US

China

Japan

UK

Impo

rter

Sour

ce

Cha

nge

y-o-

y

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14/15US %

Canada 20.7 22.3 25.6 28.5 31.1 9Chile 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 37Sweden 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 81New Zealand 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 12Other 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 75Total 21.7 23.0 26.5 29.4 32.4 10

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14/15China %

Russia 5.4 5.5 6.4 7.2 8.6 20Canada 6.8 6.4 6.8 6.5 5.3 -18US 1.3 0.7 0.9 0.8 0.6 -28Chile 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.7 -20Other 1.1 1.1 2.0 1.9 1.4 -26Total 14.9 14.2 16.9 17.3 16.6 -2

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14/15Japan %

Canada 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.0 2.0 0Finland 0.7 0.8 1.0 0.8 0.8 -3Sweden 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 -7Russia 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 -1Other 1.9 1.7 2.0 1.7 1.6 -6Total 6.6 6.3 7.2 6.0 5.8 -4

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14/15United Kingdom %

Sweden 2.1 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.6 7Finland 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 18Latvia 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 10Ireland 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 1Other 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.1 1.6 45Total 4.8 4.9 5.1 5.3 6.2 16

Expo

rter

Des

tinat

ion

Cha

nge

y-o-

y

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14/15Canada %

US 20.7 22.3 25.6 28.5 31.1 9China 7.4 7.5 8.0 7.6 6.5 -13Japan 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.3 -20Other 2.3 2.1 1.9 1.3 2.1 62Total 33.1 34.6 38.3 40.2 42.0 5

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14/15Russia %

China 6.9 6.2 7.5 8.3 9.8 17Egypt 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.5 2.1 38Japan 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.8 2CIS 4.6 4.4 5.1 5.9 4.8 -19Other 6.0 5.2 5.4 5.2 5.6 8Total 20.2 18.3 20.2 21.7 23.1 6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 14/15Sweden %

UK 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.7 5Egypt 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.6 1.3 -14Germany 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 8Norway 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.9 1.0 2Other 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.1 6.8 11Total 11.5 11.7 11.5 12.1 12.8 6

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 14/15Finland %

Egypt 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.2 1.3 1Japan 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.9 12UK 0.7 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.8 9France 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 -16Other 3.3 3.3 3.6 4.2 4.3 2Total 6.1 6.4 7.1 7.5 7.8 4



Biomass Market Update 4Q/15North American overseas pellet exports rose toreach a new record high in the 3Q/15

North American overseas pellet exports increased forthe second consecutive quarter in the 3Q/15, rising15 percent from the previous quarter to reach a newrecord high of just over 1.6 million tons, according toour sister publication NAWFR. The US South con-tinues to be in expansion mode with additional capac-ity being added during the fall of 2015.

Newly operating pellet plants in the US Gulf Coastregion made their presence felt in the 3Q with theirfirst shipments to Europe. Primarily due to these newfacilities, exports from the Gulf ports rose by 54 percentfrom the previous quarter to reach over 550,000 tons.

Fiber security and pellet demand in Asia are themajor factors dictating future pace in pelletcapacity investments in British Columbia

The quarterly shipments of pellets from Canadaremained practically unchanged during 2015. Whileshipments to Europe fell in the 3Q/15, representing asix percent reduction from the previous quarter, a largerebound in shipments to Asia more than made up forthe reduced European shipments. Exports from BCto Japan and South Korea climbed in the 3Q/15,almost doubling the 2Q/15 volumes.

Two issues facing the BC pellet producers have to dowith markets and fiber policy: 1. Will an Asian market develop and how robust willit be? With the U.S. South pellet industry continuing toexpand production capacity, the BC pellet industry

For more detailed price and market information for the biom-ass market in the US and Canada, including the most recentpellet trade data, please refer to our sister publication, theNorth American Wood Fiber Review.

Sources: ProPellets (Austria), DEPV (Germany),Energimyndigheten (Sweden) and ÄFAB (Sweden). Addi-tional sources are industry contacts and the WRI’s data-base.

has a comparative disadvantage in transportation costswhen shipping pellets to Europe, while the Pacific Rimmarket is geographically a more natural market. 2. Will a new forest policy in BC develop that includespellet companies as tenure holders. Currently, woodfiber for bioenergy remains, by and large, in the handsof companies whose primary business is lumber andpulp manufacturing, not pellet production. Increasedfiber access and long-term security for the pelletmanufacturing sector in BC is a prerequisite for furtherexpansion of the sector in the coming years.

Lower demand for wood pellets reducedEuropean pellet prices during the winter months

This last winter was another year with lower demandfor wood pellets than expected in northern Europe.Pellet consumption in Sweden remained unchanged in2015 as compared to 2014, but was approximately11% less than in 2013. Although the domesticproduction has been fairly stable the past four years,importation has fallen by more than 50% from 2011to 2015. In the local currency, pellet prices fell duringthe fall of 2015 and were four percent lower in the4Q/15 than in the 4Q/14. In Austria and Germany,demand for pellets was fairly slow with prices duringthis winter being lower than the past three winters.

Wood Pellet Prices in Europe 2003 - 1Q/2016

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1Q/0

3

1Q/0

4

1Q/0

5

1Q/0

6

1Q/0

7

1Q/0

8

1Q/0

9

1Q/1

0

1Q/1

1

1Q/1

2

1Q/1

3

1Q/1

4

1Q/1

5

1Q/1

6

Eur

o/to

n (r

esid

enta

l, bu

lk)

Austria

Germany

Sweden

Pellet Exports from North America to Europe 1Q/07‐3Q/15

0

250

500

750

1000

1250

1500

1750

1Q07

1Q08

1Q09

1Q10

1Q11

1Q12

1Q13

1Q14

1Q15

Source: North American Wood Fiber Review

Thousand tons

US

Canada

N. America



Sawlog Market Update 4Q/15

Weaker lumber markets and a strengthening USdollar have pushed the Global Sawlog Price In-dex down almost 22% in two years

The Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) continuedits two year decline in the 4Q/15 when the Index fellanother 4.8% quarter-over-quarter to US$68.45/m3(see graph). In just two years, the GSPI has fallen21.6% due to a combination of the strengthening USdollar and diminishing demand for lumber in Asia, theMENA countries and in Europe.

There have been some spectacular price reductions inUS dollar terms in a number of countries over the pasttwo years (4Q/13-4Q/15) including; Russia (-48%),Brazil (-32%), Norway (-31%), Austria (-30%), Ger-many (-28%) and British Columbia (-26%). The onlyregion experiencing higher sawlog prices in late 2015than in 2013 was the US South, where prices haveslowly trended upward for much of the past three yearsbecause of increased production levels at the region’ssawmills.

European sawlog prices have declined by a thirdin two years in US dollar terms

Sawlog prices in Europe have generally fallen fasterthan in other parts of the world, with the Central Eu-ropean prices decreasing by almost one-third in thepast two years. In the 4Q/15, the European SawlogPrice Index (ESPI) reached US$91.00/m3, the low-

est level since the 1Q/09. Much of decline in pricescan be attributed to the weakening of the currencies inEurope against the US dollar.

In the local currencies, changes in sawlog price havebeen more modest and they have even gone up in afew countries including Russia, Brazil, Sweden andPoland.

Reduced demand for logs in Asia resulted in adecline of globally traded logs by ten percent in2015

Global trade of softwood sawlogs fell ten percent from2014 to 2015 with Asian countries importing substan-tially less because of a decline in the demand for lum-ber. WRI estimates that global log trade fell from ap-proximately 84 million m3 in both 2013 and 2014 tojust over 75 million m3 in 2015. Although import vol-umes to the three major destinations in Asia, China,South Korea and Japan, fell substantially in 2015, theystill imported almost half of globally traded softwoodlogs in 2015.

Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1q/95

1q/96

1q/97

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

US

$/m

3


Note. The ESPI Price Index is a volume-weightedprice index comprising of average sawlog pricesin nine of the largest log-consuming countries inEurope. The Index tracks prices from the 1Q/95to the current quarter and will be published eachquarter in the WRQ.

European Sawlog Price Index (ESPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1q/95

1q/96

1q/97

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

US$

/m3




Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995-2015(1q/1995=100, Based on US dollars)

It is important to note that sawlog prices presented in the graphs and tables in this publication should be used asindicators when comparing price trends in different regions rather than for absolute price comparisons. Sawlogqualities and properties of conifer species vary in different parts of the world and therefore they are not alwaysdirectly comparable. Also bear in mind that log grades and volume/weight measurements do differ betweenregions. Factors used to convert to cubic meter under bark are estimates made by WRI and regional contacts.

North America(1q/1995=100)

US S US W BC C BC I Que2007 104 73 57 89 1612008 105 64 49 76 1642009 94 52 41 62 1512010 97 74 45 68 1592011 93 87 55 83 1682012 92 86 50 90 1682013 94 97 51 99 1622014 97 104 51 101 1492015 97 94 42 92 129

Europe(1q/1995=100)

Fin Swe Aus Ger Cze2007 155 122 116 124 1602008 154 134 113 120 1602009 122 110 107 103 1402010 132 130 116 117 1722011 143 143 135 134 2072012 131 125 127 123 1932013 142 123 135 129 1982014 142 119 136 132 1942015 116 101 105 103 163

Latin America & Asia(1q/1995=100)

Bra Chl NZ Jpn S Jpn Df2007 211 119 95 46 782008 226 124 88 48 882009 196 115 78 48 902010 219 111 97 55 902011 243 120 116 64 1002012 210 123 113 60 912013 192 126 119 49 912014 176 125 128 53 882015 139 124 105 43 81

Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015North America

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1q/95

1q/96

1q/97

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

1q/1

995=

100

(Bas

ed o

n pr

ice

in U

S$)

US South - Pine US NW - Hemlock BC Coast - HemlockBC Interior - SPF Quebec


Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015Europe

0

50

100

150

200

250

1q/95

1q/96

1q/97

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

1q/1

995

= 1

00 (

Bas

ed o

n pr

ice

in U

S$)

Finland - pine Sweden - pine Germany - spruceAustria - spruce Czech R - spruce


Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015Latin America, Asia & Oceania

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1q/95

1q/96

1q/97

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

1q/1

995

= 1

00 (

Bas

ed o

n pr

ice

in U

S$)

New Zealand - pine Brazil - pine Chile - pineJapan - Sugi Japan - Douglas-fir (US)




Notes.Three main criteria were used to choose geographical regions and conifer log grades for presentation in the WRQ:

1) Conifer lumber production in the region is among the twenty-five top producing regions in the world.2) Conifer log grade/grades are commonly processed in the region.3) Log species and grades are mainly average logs being processed into construction and better grades lumber in the

region. The intention is to not include pruned logs or logs typically used to produce low-grade products such aspallets and packaging components.

North America(1q/1995=100)

US S US W BC C BC I Que2007 104 73 44 68 1222008 105 64 37 57 1242009 94 52 33 50 1222010 97 74 33 50 1172011 93 87 38 58 1182012 92 86 36 64 1202013 94 97 37 72 1192014 97 104 41 80 1182015 97 94 38 84 117

Europe(1q/1995=100)

Fin Swe Aus Ger Cze2007 147 112 112 114 1352008 135 118 102 103 1132009 113 113 102 94 1112010 129 126 116 112 1362011 133 126 128 123 1522012 132 115 132 121 1582013 138 109 135 123 1612014 138 112 135 125 1682015 136 115 125 117 160

Latin America & Asia(1q/1995=100)

Bra Chl NZ Jpn S Jpn Df2007 496 133 82 56 962008 492 140 79 51 952009 469 140 79 47 872010 466 130 86 51 832011 487 141 94 53 812012 500 145 89 49 752013 496 151 93 50 932014 507 174 97 58 962015 551 194 96 55 102

Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015North America

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1q/95

1q/96

1q/97

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

1q/1

995=

100

(Bas

ed o

n pr

ice

in lo

cal c

urre

ncy)

US South - Pine US NW - Hemlock BC Coast - HemlockBC Interior - SPF Quebec


Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015Europe

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

1q/9

51q

/96

1q/9

71q

/98

1q/9

91q

/00

1q/0

11q

/02

1q/0

31q

/04

1q/0

51q

/06

1q/0

71q

/08

1q/0

91q

/10

1q/1

11q

/12

1q/1

31q

/14

1q/1

5

1q/1

995

= 1

00 (

Bas

ed o

n pr

ice

in lo

cal c

urre

ncy)

Finland - pine Sweden - pine Germany - SpruceAustria - spruce Czech R - spruce


Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995 - 4Q/2015Latin America, Asia & Oceania

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

1q/9

51q

/96

1q/9

71q

/98

1q/9

91q

/00

1q/0

11q

/02

1q/0

31q

/04

1q/0

51q

/06

1q/0

71q

/08

1q/0

91q

/10

1q/1

11q

/12

1q/1

31q

/14

1q/1

51q/1

995

= 1

00 (

Bas

ed o

n pr

ice

in lo

cal c

urre

ncy)

.

New Zealand - pine Chile - pineJapan - Sugi Japan - Douglas-fir (US)


Global Sawlog Price Index (GSPI) 1995-2015(1q/1995=100, Based on local currency)



Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets 4Q/15 - USA

Sawlogs prices falling in the US northwest be-cause of lower lumber prices and declining logexports

There has been reduced price pressure on sawlogprices in Coastal US Northwest because of the weak-ening export market for logs in 2014 and 2015. In justtwo years, export volumes have fallen 33% to reachsix million m3 in 2015 (see table). The reduced de-mand for US logs has not been limited to China but toJapan and South Korea as well. A combination of lessdemand for wood raw-material by sawmills in Asiaand a strong US dollar has resulted in US log ship-ments falling to their lowest levels in five years.

US softwood log exports to the Pacific Rim in 2013-15 (million m3)

2013 2014 2015 Chg13/15(%)China 5.8 5.4 3.7 -36Japan 2.4 2.1 1.9 -21South Korea 0.8 0.7 0.4 -50Total 9.0 8.2 6.0 -33

With declining log export volumes and also lower ex-port prices, domestic sawlog prices followed the down-ward trend during much of 2015. The average pricesfor Douglas-fir and hemlock sawlogs fell between 12-14 percent from the 4Q/14 to the 4Q/15, but theywere still about ten percent above their 10-year aver-age. The log price decline was not as big as lumberproducers in the region need in order to be able to runtheir mills profitably, in particular as lumber prices fell

much faster than log prices during the second half of2015 (see chart).

The U.S. Northwest pulp and paper sector not onlyweathered a severe wildfire season, but saw signifi-cant inventories of pulp logs on hand as the 4Q/15drew to a close. Reduced export shipments of bothlogs and chips in the 4Q/15 was a significant reasonthat inventories of wood raw-material at sawmills, pulpmills and other fiber-consuming facilities were deemedadequate to cover the typical holiday week shutdowns,reports our sister publication North American WoodFiber Review.

With high wood fiber supply and slightly reduced over-all fiber demand by the region’s pulp mills, prices forboth chips and pulp logs fell to US$107/odmt andUS$89/odmt, respectively, in the autumn.

Wood fiber prices moving slowly upward in theSouth during 2015 because of higher demand

Despite concerns over a wetter than normal winter,wood flows across the South Central states weresufficient to meet fiber demand during the 4Q/15. Pulpmill fiber inventories were generally adequate as aresult. However, the impact of storms late in the yearand heavy rainfall particularly in the western portion ofthe South Central region was likely to bring newchallenges to forest access and harvesting operationsin the early 1Q/16.

Both softwood and hardwood chip prices have slowlytrended upward throughout the South during 2015,with average prices in the 4Q/15 being US$77/odmtand US$76/odmt, respectively. New wood fiber de-mand from pellet manufacturers and pulpmills upgrad-ing intake systems to handle additional residual chipvolumes could make these higher prices the new price“norm.”

Note.For more detailed market information for the US, includingbiomass markets, please refer to our sister publication, theNorth American Wood Fiber Review.

Douglas‐fir Sawlog and Lumber Prices in the US NW

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

July 15 Au

gSep

Oct

Nov

Dec

Jan 16

Price Index (July 2015 = 100)

Lumber

Logs



US South - Sawlog and Pulpwood PricesPine Sawlog Prices

(US$/m3)

1q/14 642q 653q 634q 651q/15 642q 643q 654q 65

Conifer Pulpwood Prices (US$/odmt)

Chips Rdwd1q/14 75 832q 75 843q 75 864q 75 861q/15 75 872q 75 873q 76 864q 77 87

Non-Conifer Pulpwood Prices(US$/odmt)


Conifer Sawlog Prices - US South

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US

$/m

3ub

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices in the U.S. South

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12 1q

14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Roundwood

Chips

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices in the U.S. South

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12 1q

14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Roundwood

Chips

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryUS South

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp (%)(Source: Fisher International)

1q/2014 54.82q 55.93q 55.64q 56.51q/2015 56.62q 55.93q 56.3



US Northwest - Sawlog and Pulpwood PricesConifer Sawlog Prices

(US$/m3)

Douglas-fir Hemlock1q/2014 115 932q 107 903q 105 894q 111 931q/15 103 882q 98 823q 101 824q 98 80





Conifer Sawlog Prices - US NW

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Douglas-fir

Hemlock

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices in the U.S. Northwest

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Roundwood

Chips

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices in the U.S. Northwest

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Roundwood

Chips

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryWestern US

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 53.42q 54.93q 55.24q 55.81q/15 56.62q 56.23q 55.7



Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets 4Q/15 - Canada

1q/2014 1.1042q 1.0913q 1.1164q 1.136

1q/2015 1.2382q 1.2293q 1.3084q 1.335

Canadian $/US$

Exchange Rate: Canadian $/US$

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

C$/

US

$

Note.For more detailed price and market information forCanada, please refer to our sister publication, the NorthAmerican Wood Fiber Review.

Sawlog prices reached a seven-year low in BC inthe 4Q/15 because of weaker log export markets

Log exports from Western Canada improved in the4Q/15 when almost 1.3 million m3 were shipped toAsia. Volumes were up 20% from the previous quar-ter but only marginally higher than in the 4Q/14. Ship-ments to China rebounded from their five year low inthe 3Q/15 and increased the most quarter-over-quarterof the major markets in Asia.

Log export prices to China continued to fall and aver-aged US$80/m3 in the 4Q/15 according to CustomsStatistics. This was down as much as 11% from the3Q/15 and 22% lower than in the same quarter in2014.

The plunge in export prices during 2015 had the big-gest impact on coastal hemlock prices, which fell 25%to US$40/m3, the lowest level in seven years.

Wood chip and pulplog prices eased for the secondconsecutive quarter in British Columbia in the4Q/15

In the 3Q/15, the significant reduction in fiberconsumption on the BC Coast resulted in rapidly fallingpulp log prices and the decline continued in the 4Q.The decline in log exports to China during much of2015 was also a contributing factor to the lowering ofdomestic prices because marginal small-diametersawlogs were left for the domestic log market. In justsix months, pulp log prices fell 20% in US dollar termsand the region had the lowest pulp log prices in NorthAmerica in the 4Q/15, according to the NorthAmerican Wood Fiber Review.

Pulp mills in BC have some of the lowest woodfiber costs in the world

With ample supplies of residual chips from the localsawmills that were ramping up production in 2015,demand for pulplogs eased in the Interior and pulploginventories rose. This resulted in prices falling to theirlowest levels in over two years.

Wood chips prices also declined in the second half of2015, averaging US$79/odmt in the 4Q/15. This wasdown about five percent as the result of a strengtheningUS dollar, lower NBSK market pulp prices to whichsome contracts are linked, and lower spot market chipprices. NBSK pulp-producing mills in British Columbiacurrently have not only the lowest wood fiber costs inNorth America, but some of the lowest costs in theworld.

Wood fiber costs for pulp mills in Eastern Canadahave become more competitive in 2015

Softwood fiber prices in Eastern Canada have been insteady decline for over four years and in the 4Q/15were at the lowest level in 12 years. By the end of2015, prices for softwood chips and pulplog traded inthe open market averaged US$82/odmt and US$121/odmt, respectively. The shrinking pulp industry inOntario and Quebec has become more competitivewith fiber costs matching many other regions of NorthAmerica in 2015.



Canada West - Sawlog and Pulpwood PricesConifer Sawlog Prices - Coast

(US$/m3)

Douglas-fir Hemlock1q/2014 79 562q 95 523q 80 554q 82 531q/2015 85 492q 81 453q 76 424q 77 40

Conifer Pulpwood Prices(US$/odmt)


Conifer Sawlog Prices - Interior(US$/m3)

Spruce/pine/fir1q/2014 512q 603q 544q 531q/2015 512q 543q 48r4q 47

Conifer Sawlog Prices - BC Coast

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Douglas-fir

Hemlock

Conifer Sawlog Prices - BC Interior

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices In Western Canada

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1q 881q 90

1q 921q 94

1q 961q 98

1q 001q 02

1q 041q 06

1q 081q 10

1q 121q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

RoundwoodChips

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryWestern Canada

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2104 49.92q 51.53q 51.94q 51.41q/2015 51.02q 50.33q 49.8



Canada East - Sawlog and Pulpwood Prices



Conifer Sawlog Prices(US$/m3)

Mixed1q/2014 662q 663q 654q 631q/2015 582q 593q 554q 54

Non-Conifer Pulpwood Prices (US$/odmt)

Rdwd1q/2014 872q 903q 904q 921q/2015 872q 933q 884q 86

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Eastern Canada

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - Eastern Canada

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Roundwood

Chips

Non-Conifer Pulpwood Prices - Eastern Canada

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1q 881q 90

1q 921q 94

1q 961q 98

1q 001q 02

1q 041q 06

1q 081q 10

1q 121q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryEastern Canada

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 46.62q 46.33q 46.34q 46.11q/2015 45.62q 44.93q 45.2



Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets 4Q/15 - Europe & Russia

Increased importation of Eucalyptus chips to pulpmills in Portugal in 2015

Portugal and Turkey are the only European countries,which imported wood chips from overseas in 2015.The end-uses of the chips are for the manufacturing ofhardwood pulp in Portugal, and for MDF and particleboard in Turkey. Pulp mills in Portugal have been im-porting fairly large volumes of Eucalyptus chips fromLatin America since 2008 when the first chip vesselsarrived from Chile and Uruguay.

In 2011, the shipments reached their peak of 526,000odmt followed by a sharp decline to only 212,000odmt in 2012. The past three years, Eucalyptus chipshipments have increased year-over-year to reach451,000 odmt in 2015. Uruguay supplied about 72%of the volume in 2015, while the remainder originatedfrom Brazil.

After two years of falling prices, import prices to Por-tugal increased about eight percent in 2015 with chipsfrom Uruguay and Brazil averaging US$183/odmt(€167/odmt) and US$137/odmt (€125/odmt), re-spectively.

With substantially lower wood fiber costs in 2015,the European pulp sector has become more com-petitive with the pulp industry in North America

Wood fiber costs for the European pulp mills contin-ued their decline in the 4Q/15. There has been a fairlysteady and substantial reduction of fiber costs through-out Europe over the past 2-3 years. In the Nordiccountries, prices for chips and pulplogs in US dollarterms, have fallen 20-25% the past two years. In Cen-tral Europe, the decline has been 25-40%, and in Ibe-ria prices for pulplogs have fallen 18-28% since 2013.

With many pulp mills in Europe currently benefitingfrom the lowest wood fiber costs in over eight years,they have become more competitive with the pulp in-dustry in the US and Canada. Although the price dis-crepancy between North America and Europe has

diminished the past few years, especially for hardwoodfiber, there are still substantial differences in price forsoftwood fiber between the two continents.

Finnish pulp mills import about 40% of their hard-wood fiber needs

Finland has for many years been the largest importerof hardwood pulplogs in the world. Although importvolumes have declined the past two years, there werestill over 4.5 million m3 of logs imported mainly fromRussia in 2015. The pulp industry in Finland is quitedependent on imported wood fiber, especially that ofhardwood logs. In 2015, almost 40% of the hard-wood fiber consumption was imported fromneighbouring countries.

For many years, Finnish pulp mills with relatively closeproximity to the hardwood forests in Northwest Rus-sia have been importing competitively priced wood-raw material for a large share of their fiber needs. In2015, the average import price for Russian hardwoodlogs was US$53/m3, according to the customs data.This can be compared to the average domestic hard-wood pulp log price of about US$45/m3. In 2014,the import price was practically the same as the do-mestic price at approximately US$64/m3.

Limited investments in production capacity inNorthwest Russia despite record-low wood raw-material costs

Sawlog and pulplog prices in Northwest Russia fellslightly in the 4Q/15 from the previous quarter, there-with continuing an five-year downward trend to record-low prices not seen in over ten years. Both pulp millsand sawmills in the region enjoy some of the lowestwood fiber costs in the world. In the 4Q/15, averagesawlog prices were about US$30/m3, and pulplogprices averaged approximately US$17/m3. However,despite very competitive wood costs, the sawmillingsector in this region has not experienced any substan-tial expansion of production capacity because of in-frastructure bottlenecks, lack of investment capital, andburdensome bureaucracy.



Finland - Sawlog and Pulpwood Prices

Pulplog Prices(US$/odmt)

Conifer Non-Con1q/2014 169 1292q 169 1293q 164 1274q 152 1171q/2015 136 1042q 132 1033q 135 1054q 131 103


Pine Spruce1q/2014 114 1152q 114 1153q 110 1114q 102 1021q/2015 92 912q 91 913q 90 904q 88 88

Exchange Rate (Euros/US$)

1q/2014 0.7302q 0.7293q 0.7464q 0.8011q/2105 0.8882q 0.9043q 0.8994q 0.914

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Finland

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Pine

Spruce

Wood Fiber Prices - Finland

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Conifer Roundwood

Non-Conifer Roundwood

Exchange Rate: Finnish Markka/EURO per US$

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

FIM

/US$

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

EU

RO

/US

$

US$/Euro

Fim/US$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryFinland

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 61.02q 61.63q 61.34q 61.21q/2015 60.52q 60.53q 61.2



Norway - Sawlogs and Pulpwood Prices

Exchange Rate (Kroner/US$)

1q/2014 6.092q 5.983q 6.184q 6.871q/2015 7.742q 7.753q 8.214q 8.52


1q/2014 1392q 1423q 1374q 1221q/2015 1092q 1073q 1014q 96



Conifer Sawlog Prices - Norway

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Pine

Spruce

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - Norway

0

50

100

150

200

250

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Historical Exchange Rate: Norwegian Krone/US$

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

Nkr

/US$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryNorway

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Perc

ent o

f to

tal c

ost (

%)


1q/2014 49.42q 48.03q 47.34q 48.01q/2015 46.12q 45.13q 44.8



Sweden - Sawlog and Pulpwood Prices

Pulpwood Prices(US$/odmt)

Chips Roundwood Con Con Non-c

1q/15 131 120 982q 130 119 973q 127 117 964q 124 116 96



Exchange Rate (Kronor/US$)

1q/2014 6.462q 6.603q 7.264q 7.431q/15 8.332q 8.413q 8.484q 8.50

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Sweden

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Pine

Spruce

Wood Fiber Prices - Sweden

0

50

100

150

200

250

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Conifer Roundwood

Conifer Chips

Non-Conifer Roundwood

Exchange Rate: Swedish Krona per US$

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

Skr

/US

$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industrySweden

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 61.22q 62.23q 59.94q 59.11q/2015 58.92q 59.83q 59.2



France - Pulpwood Prices

Non-Conifer Pulplog Prices(US$/odmt)

1q/2014 1292q 1363q 1334q 1241q/2015 1172q 1023q 1004q 95

Exchange Rate (Euro/US$)

1q/2014 0.7302q 0.7293q 0.7464q 0.8011q/15 0.8882q 0.9043q 0.8994q 0.914

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - France

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1q 881q 90

1q 921q 94

1q 961q 98

1q 001q 02

1q 041q 06

1q 081q 10

1q 121q 14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Roundwood

Chips

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - France

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1q 881q 90

1q 921q 94

1q 961q 98

1q 001q 02

1q 041q 06

1q 081q 10

1q 121q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Historical Exchange Rate: French Franc/EURO per US$

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

FF

/US

$

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

EU

RO

/US

$

EURO/US$

FF/US$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryFrance

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 58.02q 60.23q 61.54q 62.21q/2015 60.82q 58.73q 56.9

Conifer Pulplog Prices(US$/odmt)

Chips Roundwood

1q/2015 126 1632q 108 1453q 100 1404q 91 132



Austria - Sawlog and Pulpwood PricesConifer Sawlogs

(US$/m3)

Spruce1q/2014 1542q 1503q 1464q 1371q/2015 1222q 1133q 1134q 107


1q/2014 0.7302q 0.7293q 0.7464q 0.8011q/2015 0.8882q 0.9043q 0.8994q 0.914


Conifer1q/2014 1972q 1913q 1854q 1691q/2015 1482q 1433q 1454q 142


1q/2014 63.92q 65.13q 63.84q 63.61q/2015 61.02q 61.53q 61.4

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Austria

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q/1

995

1q/1

997

1q/1

999

1q/2

001

1q/2

003

1q/2

005

1q/2

007

1q/2

009

1q/2

011

1q/2

013

1q/2

015

US

$/m

3ub

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryAustria

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)

Pulpwood Prices - Austria

0

50

100

150

200

250

1q 95

1q 97

1q 99

1q 01

1q 03

1q 05

1q 07

1q 09

1q 11

1q 13

1q 15

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Exchange Rate: Austria Shillings/EURO per US$

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

1q 95

1q 97

1q 99

1q 01

1q 03

1q 05

1q 07

1q 09

1q 11

1q 13

1q 15

Shi

llin

gs/U

S$

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

EU

RO

/US

$

EURO/US$

Shilling/US$



Germany - Sawlog and Pulpwood PricesConifer Sawlogs

(US$/m3)

Spruce1q/2015 1292q 1223q 1184q 115


1q/2014 0.7302q 0.7293q 0.7464q 0.8011q/2015 0.8882q 0.9043q 0.8994q 0.914



1q/2015 145 115 1192q 139 110 1173q 140 107 1134q 137 103 107

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Germany

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US

$/m

3ub

Pulpwood Prices - Germany

0

50

100

150

200

250

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Conifer pulplogsConifer chipsNon-conifer pulplogs

Exchange Rate: German Marks/EURO per US$

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

DM

/US

$

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

EU

RO

/US

$

EURO/US$

DM/US$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryGermany

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 49.72q 51.83q 50.74q 49.71q/2015 48.42q 46.13q 48.6



Spain - Pulpwood Prices

Non-Conifer Pulplog Prices(US$/odmt)

1q/2014 1372q 1303q 1274q 1171q/2015 1032q 1033q 1024q 100


Rdwd1q/2014 1132q 1143q 1144q 1061q/2015 962q 973q 954q 93


1q/2014 0.7302q 0.7293q 0.7464q 0.8011q/2015 0.8882q 0.9043q 0.8994q 0.914

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - Spain

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - Spain

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Exchange Rate: Spanish Pesetas/EURO per US$

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1q 88

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

Pts

/US

$

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

EU

RO

/US

$

EURO/US$

Pts/US$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industrySpain

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1Q/0

5

1Q/0

6

1Q/0

7

1Q/0

8

1Q/0

9

1Q/1

0

1Q/1

1

1Q/1

2

1Q/1

3

1Q/1

4

1Q/1

5

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 66.22q 65.33q 66.04q 65.31q/2015 64.22q 64.93q 64.7



Conifer Sawlog Prices (US$/m3)

Spruce1q/2015 1072q 1023q 98r4q 93

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Czech Republic

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1q/95

1q/96

1q/97

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

US

$/m

3ub

Estonia, Latvia, Czech Republic & Poland - Sawlog Prices


Spruce Pine1q/2014 114 1082q 115 1073q 111 1034q 103 961q/2015 90 852q 86 793q 87 784q 86 76


Spruce Pine1q/2014 103 1022q 103 1023q 101 994q 95 921q/2015 84 802q 81 763q 81 764q 78 74

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Estonia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1q/95

1q/97

1q/99

1q/01

1q/03

1q/05

1q/07

1q/09

1q/11

1q/13

1q/15

US

$/m

3ub

Spruce

Pine

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Latvia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

US

$/m

3ub

Spruce

Pine

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Poland

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1q/98

1q/99

1q/00

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

US

$/m

3ub


Pine1q/2014 832q 913q 864q 771q/2015 732q 733q 734q 71



Northwest Russia - Sawlog and Pulpwood PricesConifer Sawlog Prices

(US$/m3)

Pine/Spruce1q/2014 532q 513q 444q 381q/2015 302q 373q 314q 30

Exchange Rate (Roubles/US$)

1q/2014 35.092q 34.953q 39.444q 47.901q/2015 62.742q 52.673q 63.154q 65.99

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Northwest Russia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

US

$/m

3ub

Pine

Spruce

Pulplog Prices(US$/odmt)

Conifer Non-conifer1q/2014 82 542q 79 513q 69 474q 58 411q/2015 44 342q 53 423q 44 364q 41 34

Wood Fiber Prices - Northwest Russia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Conifer roundwood

Non-conifer roundwood

Historical Exchange Rate: Russian Rouble per US$

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1q/01

1q/02

1q/03

1q/04

1q/05

1q/06

1q/07

1q/08

1q/09

1q/10

1q/11

1q/12

1q/13

1q/14

1q/15

RU

B/U

S$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryRussia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 52.12q 50.53q 48.54q 48.31q/2015 41.72q 46.13q 46.2



Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets 4Q/15 - Latin AmericaExports of forest products from Brazil improvedin 2015 thanks to the weak Brazilian Real

Many forest companies in Brazil are impacted by thehealth of both the domestic and export markets. Theexport market has been strong for the manufacturersof paper, market pulp, plywood and softwood lumberbecause of the depreciation of the Brazilian Realagainst the US dollar. In the 4Q/15, the exchange ratewas R$3.84/US$ which can be compared to RS$1.60/US$ in 2011. As a consequence of the weak Real,pulp mills and sawmills have expanded their sales tomarkets in Asia, North America and Europe. From2014 to 2015, pulp exports increased the most toChina, Italy and South Korea, while the US, Mexicoand the United Arab Emirates were the bright spotsfor exporters of softwood lumber.

Brazilian forest products manufacturers shiftingtowards the export market

Although 2015 was a quite good year for many ex-porters, there are clouds on the horizon making somein the industry less optimistic looking ahead into 2016.Some worrying signs are high inflation, high interestrates, negative GDP growth, higher unemploymentrates, lower prices for forest products in the exportmarket and, as a result of the Brazilian government’sshaky finances, increases in fees and taxes of, for ex-ample energy and diesel.

The slowing economy in Brazil has had a detrimentaleffect on the domestic demand for wood products inthe country. Reduced economic activities, less pur-chasing power by consumers and a significant declinein housing constructions have had a particularly nega-tive impact on demand for wood-based panels andlumber. As a result of the weak domestic market, manymanufacturers of wood products have shifted their salesfocus to the export market the past year.

Sawlog prices in Brazil reached an 11-year low inthe 4Q/15

Most log prices increased in the 4Q/15 in BrazilianReal but the increases were still lower than the infla-

tion, which reached 2.82% during the quarter. In USdollar terms, pine sawlog prices continued their un-precedented five-year decline in the 4Q/15 when av-erage prices reached an 11-year low. Current pricesare less than half of what they were at their all-timehigh in the 2Q/11. Of all the major softwood lumber-producing countries in the world, Brazilian sawmillshave the second lowest wood raw-material costs fol-lowing Russia.

Although pine sawlog prices have fallen substantiallyin US dollar terms the past few years, prices in thelocal currency have actually increased gradually innominal terms and were over 20% higher in late 2015as compared to 2010. The price fluctuations in Brazilhave been quite dramatic and the price swings havebeen much more dramatic than those of the globalsawlog price index, GSPI (see chart).

Brazil pulp mills continue to be the lowest-costproducers of Eucalyptus pulp in the world

Pulplog prices have followed the same trend as pricesfor sawlogs. Eucalyptus pulplog prices have declinedfor over four year to reach US$0/odmt in the 4Q/15,the lowest level since 2004. Current prices for pulp-logs make Brazil the lowest-cost producers of Euca-lyptus market pulp in the world. With the very com-petitive wood fiber costs, the country could increaseexportation of market pulp by 8.9% in 2015 as com-pared to the previous year.

Sawlog Prices in Brazil and Global Index (GSPI)

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

1q/06 3q

1q/07 3q

1q/08 3q

1q/09 3q

1q/10 3q

1q/11 3q

1q/12 3q

1q/13 3q

1q/14 3q

1q/15 3q


Price Index (1Q/2006=100)

Price (US Dollar)

Price (BRL)

GSPI (US$)



Brazil - Sawlog and Pulpwood Prices

Pulpwood Prices - (US$/odmt)


1q/2014 85 72 762q 89 78 843q 76 72 794q 72 71 791q/2015 65 66 732q 60 63 693q 51 58 634q 47 54 60

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Pine(US$/m3)

1q/2014 542q 573q 534q 521q/2015 472q 453q 404q 37

Exchange Rate (Reais/US$)

1q/2014 2.362q 2.233q 2.434q 2.541q/2015 2.862q 3.073q 3.534q 3.84

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Brazil

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US

$/m

3ub

Wood Fiber Prices - Brazil

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Conifer RoundwoodConifer ChipsNon-Con Roundwood

Exchange Rate: Brazilian Reais per US$

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

1q 94

1q 95

1q 96

1q 97

1q 98

1q 99

1q 00

1q 01

1q 02

1q 03

1q 04

1q 05

1q 06

1q 07

1q 08

1q 09

1q 10

1q 11

1q 12

1q 13

1q 14

1q 15

Bra

zilia

n R

eais

per

US

$


1q/2014 58.72q 58.33q 58.54q 59.71q/2015 59.32q 58.53q 57.6

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryBrazil

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)



Chile - Sawlog and Pulpwood Prices

Exchange Rate (Pesos/US$)

1q/2014 5522q 5543q 6024q 5981q/2015 6242q 6173q 6764q 697


1q/2014 482q 483q 474q 471q/2015 472q 483q 484q 45

Pulplog Prices (US$/odmt) Conifer Non-Con

1q/2015 67 712q 68 713q 68 724q 65 68

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Chile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US

$/m

3ub

Wood Fiber Prices - Chile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Conifer Roundwood

Non-conifer Roundwood

Historical Exchange Rate: Chilean Peso/US$

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1q 901q 92

1q 941q 96

1q 981q 00

1q 021q 04

1q 061q 08

1q 101q 12

1q 14

Chi

lean

Pes

o/U

S$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryChile

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 59.22q 59.33q 58.44q 59.41q/2015 59.32q 58.33q 58.5



Sawlog and Pulpwood Markets 4Q/15 - Asia & Oceania

The import value of logs and lumber to China hasfallen by 24% in 2015 because of declining hous-ing constructions

China imported softwood logs and lumber valued at546 million dollars during the month of January 2016.This was 12% lower than the same month in 2015and 27% less than in January 2014. As recently asApril 2014, the import value was at an all-time high ofalmost 900 million dollars.

The reduced demand for both overseas and domesticwood products in 2015 has been a consequence ofthe slowdown in the Chinese economy, which has notonly reduced construction activities but also consumerspending on home remodeling and furniture.

Not only have log and lumber import volumes plum-meted the past year, but so has the price paid for im-ported products. Although the average log importprices in December 2015 and January 2016 reachedtheir highest levels since the spring of 2015, currentsoftwood log prices are still down over 25% from theirpeak in April of 2014. Domestic log prices have fallenmuch less than import prices during 2015, with Chi-nese fir sawlog prices declining less than six percentfrom the 1Q/15 to the 4Q/15.

Almost a decade long surge in log exports fromNew Zealand came to a halt in 2015

New Zealand has been a success story in the world oflog exports during the past decade with year-over-year increases in shipped volumes for nine consecu-tive years. In 2005 the country exported 5.1 millionm3 of pine logs predominantly to South Korea andJapan. By 2014, the volume had surged to 16.6 mil-lion m3 with China being the destination of 70% of theexported logs. The long unbroken trend came to ahalt in 2015 when shipments fell 11.4% from the pre-vious year. Practically the entire decline came as theresult of reduced consumption of forest products inChina last year.

Current log export prices are 15% above the five-year price average

Log export prices from New Zealand recovered dur-ing the fall of 2015 reaching just over US$100/m3(FOB) in December, up from the an average of US$83/m3 in June last year. In New Zealand dollars, priceshave recovered even more with prices in the end ofthe year being close to their highest in almost two years(see chart). Current price levels are almost 15% abovethe five-year average and only nine percent below theall-time high of March 2014.

Trade of wood chips slowed in the Pacific Rim inthe 4Q/15

Wood chip trade in the Pacific Rim slowed in the 4Q/15 because of lower fiber demand from pulp mills inJapan, South Korea and Taiwan. Only China increasedimportation of hardwood chips from the 3Q/15 to reach2.4 million odmt for the quarter. Import volumes toChina have trended upward for about six years withthe total for 2015 reaching 9.7 million odmt, almost13 percent higher than in 2014. The shipments in the4Q/15 were close to the highest on record, with Viet-nam continuing to be the predominant chip supplier.However, Australian exporters of Eucalyptus chipshave increased their shipments more than any othersuppliers the past three years. Australian shipments toChina have increased from 613,000 odmt in 2012 toalmost 2.7 million odmt in 2015, which has resulted inan increase in market share from nine percent to 28percent.

New Zealand Log Export Prices 2010‐2015

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Jan 10 Ju

l

Jan 11 Ju

l

Jan 12 Ju

l

Jan 13 Ju

l

Jan 14 Ju

l

Jan 15 Ju

l

Source: Customs data

US$/m

3 and NZ$/m

3 (FO

B)

US$/m3

NZ$/m3



Australia - Pulpwood Prices





Exchange Rate (Aus $/US$)

1q/2014 1.1162q 1.0723q 1.1464q 1.1701q/2015 1.2702q 1.2863q 1.3784q 1.388

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - Australia

0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

RoundwoodChips

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - Australia

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

RoundwoodChips

Exchange Rate: A$ per US$

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1q 90

1q 92

1q 94

1q 96

1q 98

1q 00

1q 02

1q 04

1q 06

1q 08

1q 10

1q 12

1q 14

Aus

tral

ian$

/US$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryAustralia

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

1Q/0

5

1Q/0

6

1Q/0

7

1Q/0

8

1Q/0

9

1Q/1

0

1Q/1

1

1Q/1

2

1Q/1

3

1Q/1

4

1Q/1

5

Perc

ent o

f to

tal c

ost (

%)


1q/2014 56.22q 54.83q 52.84q 53.51q/2015 53.12q 52.03q 50.5



New Zealand - Sawlog and Pulpwood Prices


Chips Rdwd

1q/2014 128 1032q 137 1073q 140 1054q 126 1001q/2015 121 962q 119 943q 106 844q 110 86


1q/2014 852q 913q 934q 831q/2015 802q 753q 674q 67

Exchange Rate (NZ$/US$)

1q/2014 1.1962q 1.1613q 1.1354q 1.2791q/2015 1.3282q 1.3663q 1.5344q 1.498

Conifer Sawlog Prices - New Zealand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US$

/m3u

b

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices - New Zealand

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

1q 89

1q 91

1q 93

1q 95

1q 97

1q 99

1q 01

1q 03

1q 05

1q 07

1q 09

1q 11

1q 13

1q 15

US$

/odm

t - D

eliv

ered

Roundwood

Chips

Exchange Rate: NZ$/US$

0.00

0.25

0.50

0.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

2.00

2.25

2.50

1q 89

1q 91

1q 93

1q 95

1q 97

1q 99

1q 01

1q 03

1q 05

1q 07

1q 09

1q 11

1q 13

NZ

$/U

S$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryNew Zealand

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

1Q/0

5

1Q/0

6

1Q/0

7

1Q/0

8

1Q/0

9

1Q/1

0

1Q/1

1

1Q/1

2

1Q/1

3

1Q/1

4

1Q/1

5

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 45.22q 49.13q 49.14q 48.61q/2015 47.72q 47.73q 46.5



China - Sawlog and Pulpwood Prices

Non-Conifer Log Prices - Eucalyptus (US$/m3)

1q/2014 1392q 1533q 1554q 1471q/2015 1322q 1313q 1234q 120

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Chinese fir (US$/m3)

1q/2014 1992q 2053q 1954q 1881q/2015 1952q 1943q 1844q 183

Exchange Rate (Yuan/US$)

1q/2014 6.122q 6.163q 6.154q 6.141q/2015 6.142q 6.093q 6.264q 6.38

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryChina

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)


1q/2014 66.32q 66.93q 66.84q 67.91q/2015 66.92q 66.03q 66.5

Eucalyptus Log Prices - China

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200320

0420

0520

0620

071q

/08

3q/0

81q

/09

3q/0

91q

/10

3q/1

01q

/11

3q/1

11q

/12

3q/1

21q

/13

3q/1

31q

/14

3q/1

41q

/15

3q/1

5

US

$/m

3 -

Del

iver

ed

Conifer Sawlog Prices - China

0

50

100

150

200

250

200320

0420

0520

061q

/073q

/071q

/083q

/081q

/093q

/091q

/103q

/101q

/113q

/111q

/123q

/121q

/133q

/131q

/143q

/141q

/153q

/15

US$

/m3u

b

Exchange Rate: Yuan/US$

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

200320

0420

0520

061q

/07

1q/0

81q

/09

1q/1

01q

/11

1q/1

21q

/13

1q/1

41q

/15

Yua

n/U

S$



Softwood log imports to China

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1Q/09 3Q

1Q/10 3Q

1Q/11 3Q

1Q/12 3Q

1Q/13 3Q

1Q/14 3Q

1Q/15 3Q

mill

ion

m3

Russia New Zealand Other Total

China - Forest Products ImportsConifer Sawlog Imports

(million m3)

2013 2014 2015New Zealand 11.3 11.5 10.1Russia 9.3 9.9 9.0US 5.3 5.5 3.4Canada 2.7 3.0 2.1Others 4.3 5.7 4.6Total 32.9 35.6 29.2

Softwood log imports to ChinaAverage value

0

50

100

150

200

250

1Q/08 3Q

1Q/09 3Q

1Q/10 3Q

1Q/11 3Q

1Q/12 3Q

1Q/13 3Q

1Q/14 3Q

1Q/15 3Q

US

$/m

3

Russia New Zealand US Total

Sources: Customs data and WRI

Conifer Sawlog Average Value(US$/m3)

Russia NZ US Total

1q/2015 126 133 175 1362q 116 114 173 1263q 107 103 170 1174q 107 106 157 115

China hardwood chip imports

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1Q/09 3Q

1Q/10 3Q

1Q/11 3Q

1Q/12 3Q

1Q/13 3Q

1Q/14 3Q

1Q/15 3Q

1000

odm

t

Vietnam Indonesia Australia

Thailand Total

Hardwood Chip Imports(million odmt)

2012 2013 2014 2015Vietnam 3.5 4.6 3.9 4.3Australia 0.6 1.2 2.1 2.7Thailand 1.8 1.4 1.0 1.2Indonesia 1.0 1.2 1.3 1.0Chile 0.1 0 0.1 0.4Others 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1Total 7.3 8.7 8.6 9.7

Hardwood chip import prices in China 2014-15

0

50

100

150

200

250

Vietnam Indonesia Australia Thailand Total

US

$/od

mt (

CIF

)

4Q/14 1Q/15 2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15Source: Customs data

Hardwood Chip Values(US$/odmt)

2Q/15 3Q/15 4Q/15

Vietnam 160 157 158Indonesia 181 173 156Australia 193 196 188Thailand 158 156 143Chile 210 176 216Total 174 172 169



Indonesia - Pulpwood Prices


1q/2014 832q 843q 854q 821q/2015 832q 813q 804q 76

Exchange Rate (Rupiah/US$)

1q/2014 117422q 116003q 121804q 122301q/2014 127562q 130963q 137684q 13684

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices in Indonesia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1q 98

1q 99

1q 00

1q 01

1q 02

1q 03

1q 04

1q 05

1q 06

1q 07

1q 08

1q 09

1q 10

1q 11

1q 12

1q 13

1q 14

1q 15

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Historical Exchange Rate: Indo. Rupiah/US$

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

1q 98

1q 99

1q 00

1q 01

1q 02

1q 03

1q 04

1q 05

1q 06

1q 07

1q 08

1q 09

1q 10

1q 11

1q 12

1q 13

1q 14

1q 15

Indo

. Rup

/US

$

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryIndonesia

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Perc

ent o

f to

tal c

ost (

%)


1q/2013 66.92q 69.43q 69.44q 69.01q/2014 68.02q 67.03q 66.44q 65.61q/2015 66.02q 65.63q 64.5



Sawlog imports, total(million m3)

Sw Hw Total2006 9.0 1.6 10.62007 7.8 1.2 9.02008 5.4 0.9 6.22009 3.6 0.5 4.12010 4.1 0.5 4.72011 4.0 0.4 4.52012 4.1 0.4 4.52013 4.2 0.3 4.562014 3.8 0.4 4.152015 3.2 0.4 3.55

Japan - Domestic and Imported Sawlog Prices


Sugi Pine D-f D-fJapan Japan US Can

1q/2014 130 145 305 2212q 129 126 297 2323q 130 123 285 2264q 123 113 258 2521q/2015 112 111 269 2282q 101 101 261 1973q 103 97 264 2714q 103 107 267 190

Conifer Sawlog Imports(million m3)

2013 2014 2015US 2.2 1.9 1.8Canada 1.2 1.2 0.8New Zealand 0.6 0.5 0.4Russia 0.2 0.2 0.1Others <0.1 <0.1 <0.1Total 4.2 3.8 3.2

Conifer Sawlog Prices - Japan

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

1q/19

95

1q/19

97

1q/19

99

1q/20

01

1q/20

03

1q/20

05

1q/20

07

1q/20

09

1q/20

11

1q/20

13

1q/20

15

US

$/m

3ub

Japan - SugiUS - Douglas-fir

Can - Douglas-firJapan - Pine

Log Imports to Japan 2000 - 2014Softwood and hardwood

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

mill

ion

m3

US Russia Canada

SE Asia New Zealand Other

Conifer sawlog imports to Japan4Q/2014 - 4Q/2015

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

US Canada NZ Russia

1000

m3

4q/14 1q/15 2q/15 3q/15 4q/15



Japan - Conifer Pulpwood Prices

Conifer Chip Prices(US$/odmt)

Domestic Imported

1q/2014 123 1892q 119 1963q 125 1994q 112 2001q/2015 109 2032q 109 1993q 110 2004q 112 201

Exchange Rate (Yen/US$)

1q/2013 92.192q 98.753q 98.884q 100.381q/2014 102.702q 102.103q 101.464q 114.531q/2015 119.152q 121.313q 122.224q 121.43

Conifer Chip Imports(1000 odmt)

2013 2014 2015

USA 497 660 639Australia 467 502 634Canada 217 163 162New Zealand 216 160 131Fiji 45 131 86Others 14 47 27Total 1456 1663 1683

Conifer Wood Fiber Prices in Japan

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1q/88

1q/90

1q/92

1q/94

1q/96

1q/98

1q/00

1q/02

1q/04

1q/06

1q/08

1q/10

1q/12

1q/14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Chips: Imported

Chips: Domestic

Exchange Rate: Japanese Yen/US$

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

1q/8

81q

/90

1q/92

1q/94

1q/96

1q/98

1q/00

1q/02

1q/0

41q

/061q

/08

1q/1

01q

/12

1q/14

Yen

/US$

Conifer Wood Chip Imports to Japan

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

USA Australia Canada New Zealand Fiji Others

1000

odm

t

2012 2013 2014 2015



Non-Conifer Chip Prices(US$/odmt)

Domestic Imported

1q/2014 165 1982q 160 1963q 169 1964q 150 1891q/2015 146 1862q 147 1833q 147 1844q 149 180

Japan - Non-Conifer Pulpwood Prices

Non-Conifer Chip Imports(1000 odmt)

2013 2014 2015

Vietnam 2159 2498 3039Australia 1808 1821 1919Chile 2227 2033 1812South Africa 1006 1113 1199Thailand 863 843 861Brazil 838 819 599Indonesia 30 185 323Malaysia 214 202 280Others 412 476 192Total 9557 9990 10224

Non-Conifer Wood Fiber Prices in Japan

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

225

250

1q/88

1q/90

1q/92

1q/94

1q/96

1q/98

1q/00

1q/02

1q/04

1q/06

1q/08

1q/10

1q/12

1q/14

US

$/od

mt -

Del

iver

ed

Chips: Imported

Chips: Domestic

Wood costs of total cash costs - pulp industryJapan

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1Q/05

1Q/06

1Q/07

1Q/08

1Q/09

1Q/10

1Q/11

1Q/12

1Q/13

1Q/14

1Q/15

Per

cent

of

tota

l cos

t (%

)

Wood costs of total cash costs (%)(Source: Fisher International)

1q/2013 68.12q 66.53q 65.34q 65.41q/2014 61.82q 61.63q 63.24q 64.91q/2015 64.62q 64.7

Non-Conifer Wood Chip Imports to Japan

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Vietnam Australia Chile S. Africa Thailand Brazil Malaysia Others

1000

odm

t

2012 2013 2014 2015



Pacific Rim Wood Chip Trade - 4Q/2015(1000 odmt)

Woodchip import prices to Japan - 2014/2015(US$ per odmt, CIF)

Sources: Japan Pulp & Paper Association and Customs data

Softwood chips (US$/odmt)

Australia USA Canada NZ Fiji Total4Q/14 195 210 216 200 170 2001Q/15 200 210 203 203 173 2032Q/15 196 206 199 200 187 1993Q/15 197 198 211 203 190 2004Q/15 194 209 202 200 na 201

Chg Y/Y (%) -0.5 -0.5 -6.5 0.0 na 0.5

Hardwood chips (US$/odmt)

Australia S. Africa Chile Vietnam Brazil Malaysia Thailand Indonesia Total4Q/14 197 205 210 167 195 161 188 165 1891Q/15 189 200 202 172 198 161 170 168 1862Q/15 191 194 195 171 193 161 165 168 1833Q/15 195 191 196 172 188 165 166 174 1844Q/15 189 187 195 170 189 160 164 169 180

Chg Y/Y (%) -4.1 -8.8 -7.1 1.8 -3.1 -0.6 -12.8 2.4 -4.8

Japan Japan Taiwan S. Korea China China TotalSource Softwood Hardwood Hardwood Hardwood Softwood Hardwood Q/Q Y/Y

est.Vietnam --- 856 15 119 --- 1102 2092 4 23Australia 180 441 78 --- --- 752 1451 2 13Chile --- 423 --- --- --- 87 510 -9 21Thailand --- 139 50 --- --- 260 449 -22 -17S. Africa --- 280 24 --- --- --- 304 3 63Indonesia --- 82 --- --- --- 205 287 29 -32USA 162 --- --- --- --- --- 162 11 -15Brazil --- 95 --- --- --- 38 133 -41 -42Malaysia --- 83 --- --- --- --- 83 32 -32New Zealand 20 39 --- --- --- --- 59 -22 -25Canada 48 --- --- --- --- --- 48 269 167Fiji --- --- --- --- --- --- 0 -100 -100Other 5 --- --- --- --- --- 5 -84 -92

TOTAL 415 2438 167 119 0 2444 5583 -1 5

Change Q/Q 17 -1 -14 5 -100 -1 -1Change Y/Y 2 5 -42 -23 -100 16 5

Change (%)



Major Pulp-Producing Countries

Top 20 wood-based pulp-producing countries in 2013 (million tons):

1. USA 49.1 6. China 9.0 11. India 4.0 16. NZ 1.52. Canada 18.0 7. Japan 8.8 12. France 2.7 17. Australia 1.43. Brazil 15.1 8. Russia 7.7 13. Germany 2.6 18. Portugal 1.44. Sweden 11.7 9. Indonesia 6.8 14. Austria 2.0 19. South Africa 1.35. Finland 11.3 10. Chile 5.2 15. Spain 2.0 20. Norway 1.2

Note. Countries for which wood fiber prices are tracked by the WRQ are listed in bold. Production of pulpin these countries together for an estimated 87% of global wood-based pulp production.

Major Softwood Lumber-Producing Countries

Top 20 softwood lumber-producing countries in 2013 (million m3):

1. USA 51.1 6. Sweden 15.8 11. Chile 7.6 16. Australia 3.82. Canada 41.6 7. Finland 10.1 12. France 6.8 17. Czech 3.83. Russia 31.2 8. Japan 10.0 13. Turkey 4.2 18. Romania 3.74. China 26.5 9. Brazil 9.4 14. Poland 4.1 19. UK 3.55. Germany 20.4 10. Austria 8.7 15. NZ 4.0 20. S. Korea 3.0

Note. Countries for which sawlog prices are tracked by the WRQ are listed in bold. Production of conifersawnwood in these countries together for an estimated 75% of global sawnwood production.



Estimated wood fiber consumption by WRQ regions in 2013(1000 odmt)

TotalChips Rdwd Chips Rdwd

US, South 13800 39500 3400 15000 71700

US, Northwest 4443 2772 338 298 7851

Canada, East 7500 2100 1200 2900 13700

Canada, West 7700 2300 min 300 10300

Norway 452 998 min min 1450

Sweden 4158 10973 min 3621 18752

Finland 3689 7650 342 5647 17328

France 1300 3200 300 750 5550

Germany 1555 2035 min 500 4090

Spain 157 264 201 2354 2976

Russia, NW 480 4950 min 4200 9630

Brazil 630 3700 min 27920 32250

Chile 1800 4045 min 4281 10126

New Zealand 800 1550 min 150 2500

Australia 375 1470 50 200 2095

Japan 4916 134 min 10894 15944

Indonesia 0 min min 14740 14740

Total 53755 87641 5831 93755 240982

Total % 22.3 36.4 2.4 38.9 100.0

Conifer Non-Conifer



Principal Wood Fiber Species and Average Regional Densities(kg per m3 oven dry wood)

Region Principal Species Density

U.S., South Conifer Pinus taeda, elliottii 509Non-Con Quercus, Acer, Nyssa, Liriodendron 500

U.S., Northwest Conifer Pseudotsuga M., Tsuga spp. 435Non-Con Alnus spp. 370

Canada, East Conifer Picea spp., Abies spp., Pinus banksiana 400Non-Con Betula spp., Populus spp. 500

Canada, West Conifer Pseudotsuga M., Tsuga spp., Abies spp.,Pinus contorta, Picea spp. 395

Norway Conifer Picea spp., Pinus silvestris 385Sweden Conifer Picea spp., Pinus silvestris 385

Non-Con Betula spp. 510Finland Conifer Picea spp., Pinus silvestris 385

Non-Con Betula spp. 510France Conifer Picea spp., Pinus spp., Abies spp., Pseudotsuga M. 410

Non-Con Quercus spp., Fagus spp. 475Germany Conifer Picea spp., Abies spp., Larix spp., Pinus silvestris 373

Non-Con Fagus spp. 510Spain Conifer Pinus pinaster., Pinus Radiata 435

Non-Con Eucalyptus globulus 600

Russia, NW Conifer Picea spp., Pinus silvestris 385Non-Con Betula spp., Populus tremula 500

Brazil Conifer Pinus taeda, elliottii, Araucaria 500Non-Con Eucalyptus grandis & clones, Acacia spp. 495

Chile Conifer Pinus radiata 400Non-Con Eucalyptus globulus, nitens 560

New Zealand Conifer Pinus radiata 400Australia Conifer Pinus radiata, pinaster, Pseudotsuga M. 420

Non-Con Eucalyptus spp. 550

Japan Conifer Mixed 455Non-Con Mixed 550

Indonesia Non-Con MTH, Acacia spp., Eucalyptus spp. 500



Featured articles in the Wood Resource Quarterly 2011 - 2015

Imports of forest products to Japan in 2010 and 2011 Vol 24 (2011), No. 1Lumber trade in the Pacific Rim Vol 24 (2011), No. 2North American log and lumber exports to China Vol 24 (2011), No. 3Russian log export tariffs Vol 24 (2011), No. 4

China log and lumber import Vol 25 (2012), No. 1European timber harvest, log consumption and trade Vol 25 (2012), No. 2What is the outlook for wood products demand and import to Japan? Vol 25 (2012), No. 3Global trade of logs in 2012 Vol 25 (2012), No. 4

Global trade of wood chips reached record highs in 2011 and 2012 Vol 26 (2013), No. 1Log production and consumption in Central Europe the past ten years Vol 26 (2013), No. 2Global trade of softwood lumber in 2013 reach highest level in five years Vol 26 (2013), No. 3Russian lumber and log exports since log tariffs were implemented Vol 26 (2013), No. 4

New Zealand log exports and timber harvests Vol 27 (2014), No. 1Timber harvests and log end-uses in North America Vol 27 (2014), No. 2The global family of wood chip carriers is becoming smaller Vol 27 (2014), No. 3Russia’s exports of logs and lmber in 2014 Vol 27 (2014), No. 4

Price outlook for market pulp in the US, China and Europe Vol 28 (2015), No. 1Global Softwood Log Trade in the 1H of 2015 Vol 28 (2015), No. 2Overseas Lumber Imports to the US in the Past and Outlook Vol 28 (2015), No. 3

Partial list of conference lectures given by WRI staff(Country where presentation was given is noted in parentheses)

North American Wood Fiber Markets and Export Trends (Singapore)Declining Wood Costs and Lower Harvest Levels in Europe (Switzerland)US Market for Tropical Timber Products (Papau New Guinea)Global Forest Plantation Resources - End-uses and Cost Trends (Spain)Wood Biomass Markets in Europe and North America (United Kingdom)Changing Lumber Markets in North America (Sweden)

Global Trade in Forest Products: Growing and Changing (USA)Wood raw-material markets in Europe, Russia and North America (Switzerland)A look at the Usage of Residual Wood for Energy in Europe and North America (Canada)Global Wood Fiber Markets & Price Trends (Singapore and Brazil)Latin America’s Forest industry: Export Trends and Fiber Cost Competitiveness (Brazil)

Global Wood Fiber Price Trends (United Kingdom)Outlook and Price Trends for Pulpwood and Wood Chips (Uruguay and Australia)US Northwest Pulp Mills - An Overview of Production and Fiber Supply (USA)Changing Wood Raw-Material Markets in Western Canada and the US Northwest (Canada)Global Woody Biomass Market Update: Demand, Trade and Prices (New Zealand)International Sawlog and Pulpwood Price Trends (Brazil)Global Drivers Affecting the Forest Industry and Timberland Owners in W. North America (USA)

Selected presentations can be viewed on our web site www.woodprices.com or subscribers can contactus at [email protected] to receive presentations in PDF format.



DisclaimerPrices published in the Wood Resource Quarterly are collected from sources believed to be reliable and havinga good knowledge of the market place. Prices in the report are the best estimates for the published quarter andthey may vary depending on special agreements and specific conditions.

Wood Resources International LLC has made every effort to ensure accuracy and completeness of informationprovided but our company is not responsible for financial losses or damages of any kind resulting from actionstaken based on the contents of this report. We disclaim responsibility for errors that may have occurred whengathering and publishing data.

Sources and Subscription Information

Principal Information SourcesSawlog market information is obtained from industry sources in the countries covered by the WRQ. In addition, informationis sourced from Ministry of Forests (Canada); Timber-Mart South (USA); Regional Log Market Reports (USA); FormeConsulting Group (New Zealand); STCP Engenharia de Projetos (Brazil); Government statistics (Germany) ; Statistik Austria(Austria); Metsa (Finland); Skogsstyrelsen (Sweden); Wood Industries Federation of NW Russia (Russia); RMK (Estonia);Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry & Fisheries (Japan), Japan Ministry of Finance and JAWIC (Japan). Exchange rates fromwww.Oanda.com

Pulpwood market information is obtained in part from the following regional experts by special agreement with WoodResources International:

Maa-ja metsätaloustuottajain Keskusliitto MTK r.y. (Finland); Dr. D. Bemelmans (France); Statistik Austria (Austria); GenerandiSL (Spain); Wood Industries Federation of NW Russia (Russia); “North American Wood Fiber Review” (US and Canada);STCP Engenharia de Projetos (Brazil); Forme Consulting Group (New Zealand); Wood Grove Resources (Australia); PulpwoodDivision, Japan Paper Association (Japan). Pulp price data used in the Pulp Grade Wood Fiber Cost Analysis (pages 8 & 9)are sourced from FOEX Indexes Ltd, Pulpwatch (Hawkins Wright), Forestweb and industry sources.

The wood cost of total cash costs for pulpmills worldwide courtesy of Fisher International (www.fisheri.com).

All prices in the WRQ are in metric units, either cubic meters (m3) or oven-dry metric tons (odmt, tons).

Subscription Information“Wood Resource Quarterly” is published quarterly by Wood Resources International, LLC. The report is published in May,August, November and February (2013). The annual subscription rate for 2013 is US$ 2500 (single user option), $3800 (multi-user license up to 3 offices) and $4600 for extended multi-use (4-6 offices), which includes both a mailed copy of the report,as well as a down-loadable version of the report from our web site (www.woodprices.com).

For more information, or to initiate your subscription, please contact us at [email protected]

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• No part or total of any WRI publication may be reproduced, transmitted or retransmitted in any form, or byany means, electronic or mechanical, including photocopy, facsimile, or any information storage and retrievalsystem, including intranet, without expressly written permission. It is also illegal to share access passwordwith nonsubscribers.

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