Awareness, Reaction, Preparedness:

Sea Level Rise Risk to the City of Boston, Massachusetts

A Capstone Project in the

Field of Sustainability and Environmental Management

Masters of Liberal Arts Degree

Harvard University

Extension School

Jane Murray Wolff

December 2013

ii

Abstract

This Capstone Project offers insight into sea level rise risks to the city of Boston,

Massachusetts. Potential gaps in official plans for sea level adaptation and an understanding of

the typical Bostonian’s reactions are discussed. Historical background reviews how the city of

Boston was founded on a small peninsula in the year 1630. To expand the city, Boston developed

on landfill. Over 50% of Boston was built on this fill - today comprising some of the most

valuable real estate in the US. The risks from rising waters are very real; with the concern that

little has been done to protect Boston from the sea since the Charles River Watershed, Charles

River Dam and the Amelia Earhart Dam were developed. Qualitative research, discussing this

Capstone Project topic with both experts in the field of sea level rise and non-expert members of

the community, was the primary research method used in the report. Secondary sources include

scientific journals, government reports and news articles on the topic. Data and Results research

uncovered several approaches to a workable adaptation plan: The most viable of those under

consideration are:

1. Engineering and Utilizing Hard Infrastructure

2. Adaptation Initiatives: Learning to Live with Water

3. Reinforcing Existing Structures: A New Model for City Resiliency

4. Teamwork: Securing the Business and Residential Communities Involvement

Boston’s analytical efforts and strategy are impressive, but the city needs to immediately move

to an action phase that includes specifics on timing and funding. If the average Bostonian does

not feel that sea level rise will impact their way of life, negative reactions to FEMA’s 2013 flood

maps are an opportunity to make the issue a cause. Sea level adaptation must be part of the city

of Boston’s official 2014 plan, utilizing a multi-faceted, layered strategy that will protect all of

Boston’s citizens and neighborhoods.

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Acknowledgements

It is my honor to thank the many generous individuals who shared their time and

expertise with me in support of the researching and writing of this Capstone Project:

Carolyn Bennett, Boston Redevelopment Authority

George Buckley, Harvard University

John Cleveland, Boston Green Ribbon Commission

Elisabeth Colby, Boston Harbor Islands National Park Service

John Englander, Author

Cory Ireland, Harvard University

Paul Kirshen, University of New Hampshire

Stephanie Kruel, Boston Conservation Commission

Sarah Taylor, Harvard University

Mike Wilson, MIT

Julie Wormser, Boston Harbor Association

And a special thanks to my husband, Bill Wolff, for his encouragement, guidance and

support during the creation of this report where he acted as a primary proofreader, voice of

reason and rock. These thanks extend beyond this semester, to his support during the many years

spent in quest of this Masters in the Field of Sustainability and Environmental Management.

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Table of Contents Page

Introduction……………………………………………………………………………….. 1

Background……………………………………………………………………………….. 4

The Building of Boston: A Brief History…………………………………………………. 5

Protecting Greater Boston from the Sea: 1630 to Present Day………………………….... 5

Implications of Climate Change and Increasing Severe Weather……………………….... 12

Methods…………………………………………………………………………………… 17

Data and Results………………………………………………………………………….. 18

Overview of Most Recent Climate Change Science ……………………………………... 18

Impact of Hurricane Sandy to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern United States……….. 23

Preparing for Boston’s Risk of Sea Level Rise……………………………………………. 29

Engineering and Utilizing Hard Infrastructure…………………………………………..... 31

Adaptation Initiatives: Learning to Live with Water………………………………............ 34

Reinforcing Existing Structures: A New Model for City Resiliency………………............ 39

Teamwork: Securing the Business and Residential Communities Involvement………...... 40

Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations………………………………………….. 43

The Need for and Benefits of Public Awareness and Communication……………………. 49

Next Steps…………………………………………………………………………………. 56

References………………………………………………………………………………..... 60

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List of Figures Page

Figure 1: Massachusetts Population in 2010……………………………………………… 2

Figure 2 Boston Harbor in 1637……………….………………………………………….. 5

Figure 3: Shawmut (early Boston) in 1630……………………………………………….. 6

Figure 4: Documenting Boston’s Development, 1630 to 1675…………………………… 7

Figure 5: Boston Inner Harbor, 1914……………………………………………………… 8

Figure 6: Boston in 1630 superimposed over aerial photo from 2005……………………. 9

Figure 7: Harbor Entrance to Charles River ……………………………………………… 10

Figure 8: Charles River Dam and Lock System…………………………………………… 11

Figure 9: Amelia Earhart Dam on the Mystic River………………………………………. 11

Figure 10: Historical Trends in Climate Change Leading Indicators …………………….. 19

Figure 11: Acceleration of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Mass Reduction………………. 20

Figure 12: 1880-2013, Cumulative Sea Level Rise of Thirteen U.S. Coastal Cities……… 21

Figure 13: Sea Level Rise Study of Boston, MA (1921-2011) at 95% Confidence……... 22

Figure 14: Floodplain Erosion Impacts on Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise …………….. 23

Figure 15: FEMA’s NYC Flood Plain Map and actual flooding from Hurricane Sandy… 25

Figure 16: Boston Harbor, Average High Tide with 5 Ft Surge………………………….. 27

Figure 17: Boston Harbor, Average High Tide with 7.5 Ft Surge………………………... 28

Figure 18: The Maeslantkering Sea Gate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands…………………. 32

Figure 19: Enclosing Boston’s Harbor with Sea Gates…………………………………… 34

Figure 20: “Super Plug”…………………………………………………………………… 36

Figure 21: Utilizing Natural Buffers to Protect Boston Harbor…………………………… 38

Figure 22: Mapping Boston’s Climate Preparedness……………………………………… 44

Figure 23: Focus Group Question Ranking Boston’s Top Priorities………………………. 47

Figure 24: Focus Group Results - Ranking Boston’s Top Priorities………………………. 48

Figure 25: 2013 Updated FEMA Flood Map of Boston Harbor…………………………... 52

Figure 26: Visualization of Boston Harbor’s Updated FEMA Flood Map……………….. 53

Figure 27: Flood Impact to Charles River, Financial District and Fort Point Channel…… 54

Figure 28: Example of Community Sea Level Adaptation Campaign Poster…………….. 57

Figure 29: Example of Community Sea Level Adaptation Campaign Poster…………….. 57

List of Appendix

Appendix 1: Boston Sea Level Reaction Focus Group Interview Guide…………………. 72

Appendix 2: Focus Group Participant Opinion Questions………………………………… 74

Appendix 3: Focus Group Responses……………………………………………………… 75

Appendix 4: State and Regional Community Adaptation Initiatives……………………… 77

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Definition of Terms

100 Year Flood: a flood of that has a 1% chance of happening in any year or a 26-% chance of

flooding during the life of a standard 30-year mortgage (a 1 in 4 chance over the life of the loan).

These areas are categorized as Zone A and V by FEMA (Federal Emergency Management

Agency, 2013a). “The term 100-year flood is misleading because it leads people to believe that it

happens only once every 100 years. The truth is that an uncommonly big flood can happen any

year. The term 100-year flood is really a statistical designation, and there is a 1-in-100 chance

that a flood this size will happen during any year. Perhaps a better term would be the 1-in-100

chance flood" (U.S. Geological Survey Fact Sheet, 2013).

500 Year Flood: a flood having a 0.2% or greater annual probability of occurring. These areas

are categorized as Zones B and X by FEMA (FEMA, 2013b).

BHA: Boston Harbor Associates

BRA: Boston Redevelopment Authority

BWSC: Boston Water and Sewage Commission

CRWA: Charles River Watershed Association

FEMA: Federal Emergency Management Agency

FIRM: Flood Insurance Rate Map

GDP: Gross Domestic Product is a measure of a region’s total annual economic activity.

ICLEI: International Council for Local Environmental Initiatives

IPCC: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

LEED: Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design

MBTA: Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority

MHHW: Mean Higher High Water is the average height of recorded higher high waters of mixed

tides at a place over a 19-year period.

NCADAC: National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee

NFIP: National Flood Insurance Program

NOAA: U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency

USCAE: US Corp of Army Engineers

1

Introduction

Severe weather is becoming the new norm on the planet, and the United States is not

exempt from the resulting loss and devastation. Violent storm surges, droughts, and extreme

temperatures along with slower, but chronic results of global warming (such as polar ice melts)

are impacting all of Earth’s populations. One scientific projection estimates damage that could

result in 1.4 billion people becoming environmental refugees - an estimated 16% of the world’s

population (Usery, 2007). The areas of the United States most vulnerable to sea level rise and

storm surge damage are along the eastern and southeastern coasts - an area that spans from

Maine to Texas.

Major storms Katrina and Sandy have made catastrophic hurricane damage in the United

States a reality and there are significant lessons that need to be applied to protect our shorelines

in the future. This Capstone Project will address the specific vulnerabilities the city of Boston

will face in the event of sea level rise and ascertain how critical some of these threats are to the

average Bostonian. The fundamentals that this project will answer are:

What is Boston’s plan?

Is there consensus between government, scientific experts, business and the residential

community on best adaptation practices?

How can the business and residential communities get involved in building solutions?

When compared to the total population of the U.S., the State of Massachusetts is

relatively small, with current population estimates at 6.65 million (United States Census Bureau,

2010a). Massachusetts is typical of most U.S. states on a coastline, with the majority of

resident’s choosing to live or work close to the shore. Measuring at 1,519 miles of coast,

Massachusetts’s coastal population in 2000 was 4,924,916; over 75% of the state’s total

(Massachusetts Coastal Management Program, 2000).

2

The city of Boston is a central hub for 17% of the State’s total population, with a

residential population of 636,479 and daily commuters raising those numbers by an additional

460,000 (United States Census Bureau, 2012). This Capstone Project will look at a larger

economic area by including the needs of East Boston, Cambridge, Dorchester, Somerville and

Quincy.

Figure 1: Massachusetts Population in 2010

(U.S. Census Bureau, 2010b)

An important fact to consider when studying the area is the economic contribution of the

region. Boston-Cambridge-Quincy enjoys the ninth largest economy in the United States (United

States Department of Commerce, 2013a) and is the thirty-second largest economy globally

(World Bank, 2013). Even a short term disruption in this economy would prove to be a

significant hit to the economic health of the United States. A small percentage of the city’s

3

annual Gross Domestic Product (GDP) could make a significant difference in funding a sea level

adaptation plan. The 2010 US Census reported the GDP for the Boston-Cambridge-Quincy

regions equaled $325 billion (B) (United States Department of Commerce, 2013b). Just 1% of

this amount could provide $3.2B towards sea level adaptation, each year. A case can be made for

earmarking this small portion of the area’s wealth, if the residential and business communities

determine the issue a priority.

This paper will highlight the significant economic and social impact of sea level rise to

the area. Utilizing one-on-one meetings and focus groups, this report will document what experts

and the average Boston citizen think about the chance of this threat impacting their livelihood.

What an effective plan looks like will be determined based on best current government and

scientific information.

While the most current science of climate change will be used as part of the Background

in this report, a discussion of how and why climate change is impacting Boston will be a

relatively small portion of this study. This paper will take the approach that anthropogenic

climate change and sea level rise are both a reality. In order to determine how these facts are

considered, the paper will document individual non-scientific opinions. It is expected that a

percentage of individuals may refute the reported information on climate change. These opinions

are important trends, especially in implementing adaptation strategies; therefore responses of

climate denial or uncertainty are considered valid reactions. An important outcome of this paper

is to record how varied are opinions on sea level rise as a threat to Boston.

Finally, this paper will discuss if Boston potentially deserves unique status over other

coastal communities due to the cultural, educational and historic contributions of the region. As

sea coasts flood, some parts of the world are physically moving inhabitants and disrupting lives

4

and communities. Does the physical infrastructure and legacy of Boston and Cambridge make a

case for preserving coastal properties, even if science and/or equitable treatment fly in the face of

this decision?

This project hopes to offer new insight to the issue of sea level rise and act as an aid to

the city’s decision makers. Insights include potential gaps in the current plans for sea level

adaptation and an understanding of the typical Bostonian’s opinion on the reality of sea level

rise. As Boston’s plans become solidified, to be effective they must reflect several audiences’

needs and thoughts in order to be inclusive and supported by the public at large.

5

Background

The Building of Boston: A Brief History

Boston is one of the oldest cities in the United States. It was first incorporated as a town

in 1630 and became a city in 1822 (City of Boston, 2013a). Much has been done in the city’s

history to protect both land and property against the ever present sea. The area now known as the

city of Boston was originally called Shawmut by the Native Americans. At that time, Shawmut

was a peninsula with water boundaries that have become, in present day, some of Boston’s most

thickly settled neighborhoods. Figure 3 shows when the area known as Back Bay actually was a

bay. Another water area, the South Cove, is today the area of Boston Medical Center in the South

End and a section of South Boston. Early Boston was a community with a vibrant seaport and

fishing industry, with the Puritan settlers quickly building what became one of the most

important early commerce centers in the northeastern United States.

Figure 2: Boston Harbor in 1637.

(Cartographer Unknown, 1637, accessed from Milam.com, 2013)

Shawmut

Peninsula

was the

original

site and

land mass

for

present

day

Boston.

Noodles

Island

was the

original site

and land

mass for

what is now

East

Boston.

6

Figure 3: Shawmut (early Boston) in 1630.

(Cartographer Unknown, 1630, accessed from Milam.com, 2013)

Boston expanded upon its original site in the 1800’s and several engineering feats were

done to expand the living area. The first major land reclamation in Boston was the Bulfinch

Triangle and the filling of Mill Pond. This created today’s North End, which was systematically

filled by leveling Beacon Hill for development (Barclay, 2010). Additional hills were leveled

and used as fill to create the Back Bay and South End. The area originally known as Noddle's

Island was now accessible by land from Boston proper and renamed East Boston (Sweetser,

1883). These areas of landfill today comprise some of the most valuable real estate in

Massachusetts.

Map of Boston’s Earliest Colonial Dwellings with Original Hills called

Beacon Hill, Cotton Hill, Fort Hill, Fox Hill, West Hill and Windmill Hill

7

Figure 4: Documenting Boston’s Development, 1630 to 1675

(Waring, 1886)

Boston’s final land area is almost unrecognizable when compared to the original site

from 1630. Besides the areas of Boston proper, sections of today’s Cambridge, Somerville, East

Boston, South Boston’s Seaport District and Logan Airport were all enhanced by landfill. Logan

Airport, in East Boston, was first used in 1922 (Massport, 2013). It was the final area of Boston

proper to be built from landfill, directly on the sea.

Expansion of Boston Harbor, Beacon Hill, Back Bay and South Boston, shown

with original Shawmut Peninsula land mass

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Figure 5: Boston Inner Harbor, 1914

(Directors of the Port of Boston, 1914)

Protecting Greater Boston from the Sea: 1630 to Present Day

As the city grew, Boston’s city elders became mindful of the fact that keeping land that is

either at, or below sea level, dry would be a constant struggle. In the 1900’s, there were

important flood prevention structures put in place at the entrances to the Charles and Mystic

Rivers, both that feed directly into the Boston Harbor.

Early schematic for Boston Harbor showcasing options for building the Logan Airport

expansion, Seaport District and the land mass between Boston’s North end and Charlestown.

9

Figure 6: Boston in 1630 (brown) superimposed over aerial photo from 2005

(Computer Images Corporation, 2012)

The Craddock Locks, located in Medford, were built in 1909 to prevent excess flood

waters from engulfing towns such as Winchester, Medford and Somerville (Balaban, 2008). The

next year, 1910, the state of Massachusetts constructed a dam on the Charles River to prevent

tidal flooding of lowlands, sewers, and drains along the lower reach of the Charles River (State

of Massachusetts, 2013a). The areas protected include Back Bay, Somerville, Cambridge and

Allston. These early flood control measures were then upgraded. The Craddock locks were

replaced in 1965 by the Amelia Earhart Dam. This dam was built in Somerville, on the Malden

and Mystic Rivers, to provide additional flood control for the greater Boston area (United States

Corp of Army Engineers (USCAE), 2012a).

1. Amelia Earhart Dam on

the Mystic River

2. East Boston

3. Somerville/Cambridge

4. Charles River Dam

5. Financial District

6. Back Bay

7. Seaport District

8. South End

9. South Boston

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In 1972, a study by the Charles River Watershed Association (CRWA) uncovered a need

to protect natural storage areas along the Charles River from further development. The study

recommended that the federal government purchase and preserve lands for the purpose of flood

control. By cushioning flood runoff with 80 miles of wetlands, the shores of the Charles allow

for storage for excess waters from Boston to the coast to Hopkinton (USCAE, 2012b). In total,

the Charles River Watershed has a drainage area of approximately 308 square miles that forms a

natural reservoir in times of excess precipitation (State of Massachusetts, 2013b). The original

Charles River dam needed to be replaced in 1978 as it became inadequate to meet future flood

control risks. As metropolitan Boston grew, open land that could have provided potential buffers

during floods was commercially developed and the decrease in natural buffers increased the

amount of runoff into the Charles River Basin (USCAE, 2012c).

Figure 7: Harbor entrance to Charles River

(United States Geographical Survey, 2013b)

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Figure 8: Charles River Dam and Lock System

(United States Geographical Survey, 2013c)

Figure 9: Amelia Earhart Dam on the Mystic River

(United States Geographical Survey, 2013d)

12

Besides the flood prevention structures noted in these maps, the density of real estate and

commercial industry shows how thickly settled Boston’s shores are in present day. Needless to

say, there would be much lost if these dams and wetlands failed to protect in the event of high

waters. Along with the major flood protection hard infrastructures mentioned in the Background

section of this report, there are several effective community focused strategies in place. Up and

down the New England coastline, a precedent has been set for the utilization of sea walls, dunes

and other effective man-made and natural flood protective strategies. There has not been a

significant flood preventive structure built since 1978, however waterfront development of

Boston has continued. The desirability of both commerce and real estate in the Boston Harbor

region has increased significantly, especially since the completion of the project nicknamed “The

Big Dig”. Moving forward, as this ongoing development continues, constant vigilance is needed

to be certain that both new and existing development is assessed as to adequacy in curtailing

ongoing threats from flooding.

Implications of Climate Change and Increasingly Severe Weather

While there is debate on the cause, most people agree that these first years of the new

century have resulted in unusually catastrophic damage and suffering from severe weather.

Increasing global temperatures are cited by scientists as the most likely cause of damaging

weather. The result has caused some areas of the world to suffer from drought, while typhoons,

hurricanes and punishing precipitation has caused other regions to suffer from devastating

floods. The most recent scientific findings should concern Boston, and encourage the city to

consider sea level rise as a major risk.

The January 2013 Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) draft Climate

Assessment Report by the National Climate Assessment and Development Advisory Committee

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(NCADAC) states:

“Infrastructure will be increasingly compromised by climate-related hazards,

including sea level rise and coastal flooding, and intense precipitation events.

Disruptions to services provided by public and private infrastructure in the

Northeast both interrupt commerce and threaten public health and safety. A one

and one-half foot rise in sea level (one to four feet is projected by 2100) would

expose approximately $6 trillion worth of property to coastal flooding in the

Baltimore, Boston, New York, Philadelphia, and Providence metropolitan areas”

(Lenton, Footitt, & Dlugolecki, 2009 as cited by National Climate Assessment

and Development Advisory Committee, 2013).

Massachusetts became the first state to officially incorporate climate change impacts into

its environmental review procedures by adopting legislation that directs agencies to “consider

reasonably foreseeable climate change impacts, including additional greenhouse gas emissions,

and effects, such as predicted sea level rise” (State of Massachusetts, 2012). Boston’s location on

the sea is a large contributor to the city’s beauty and cultural allure. The city’s roots from 1630

as a port and fishing village are what allowed it to grow into a worldwide hub with some of the

most significant educational, financial and health care institutions in the world. Boston has

maximized development on every available square foot of the city, with some of the most

valuable created via landfills. “Today, more than fifty percent of downtown Boston is filled

tidelands,” says Jim Hunt, Boston's (former) chief of environmental and energy services (Hunt,

2012, as cited by Brady-Myerov, 2012).

As a result of proximity to Atlantic Ocean, and with large amounts of the city at or below

sea level rise, Boston’s risk of flood damage is very real. Scientific projections are more

14

damaging for Boston than the overall Northeastern U.S. averages cites the NCADAC (National

Climate Assessment and Advisory Committee, 2013). Boston’s sea level rise projections range

from 2 to 6 feet by the end of the 21st century, depending on several factors but the most

damaging is potentially Arctic polar ice melt. Hurricane storm surge could result in more

immediate damage, with some parts of the city under ten feet of water. Both of these futures are

now imminent, and by 2050 storm surges could flood Boston as often as every two to three

years. (Brady-Myerov, 2012) The 2013 Boston Harbor Association study, Preparing for the

Rising Tide, asserted that a major storm under those higher water conditions could quickly

submerge much of the city, including large sections of the Back Bay, East Boston, the North

End, Dorchester, and other neighborhoods. Indeed, had Hurricane Sandy hit Boston at high tide

in October of 2012, instead of low tide, the group asserted nearly 6% of Boston would have

flooded, including much of downtown. Under future conditions, with a sea level rise of just 2 ½

feet, a Hurricane Sandy-sized storm could inundate 30% of the city (Douglas, Kirshen, Li,

Watson, & Wormser, 2013a). “A couple of feet of sea level rise make a huge difference,” said

Paul Kirshen, a research professor at the University of New Hampshire who co-authored the

Boston Harbor Association study. “It only takes one major flood to wipe out electrical

substations, MBTA stations, the sewer system, and other infrastructure. The storm might only

last a couple hours, but it takes a lot longer to recover” (Kirshen, 2013 as cited by Ross, 2013).

In 2005 and again in 2012, Hurricanes Katrina and Sandy caused widespread death and

destruction from coastal flooding. As of this writing, the regions impacted by these storms, New

Orleans, sections of New York City, southern Connecticut and the New Jersey shore are still

recovering. Funds from government agencies, flood insurance, charities and corporations have

been critical to the people of these regions, however even these sources have not been enough to

15

bring the areas back completely. The financial risk associated with coastal flooding and

continuation of public aid has been much discussed since both storms. Customary sources of aid

have been severely strained due to the frequency of these storms. The cost and efficacy of flood

insurance are both areas of significant concern:

“In July 2012, the U.S. Congress passed the Biggert-Waters Flood

Insurance Reform Act of 2012 which calls on the Federal Emergency

Management Agency, and other agencies, to make a number of changes to the

way the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) is run. Some of these changes

already have occurred, and others will be implemented in the coming months.

Key provisions of the legislation will require the NFIP to raise rates to reflect true

flood risk, make the program more financially stable, and change how Flood

Insurance Rate Map (FIRM) updates impact policyholders” (Federal Emergency

Management Agency, 2013c).

The flood plains for Boston have been updated and the increased risks and resulting

premiums are being communicated to impacted property owners. But it is important to keep in

mind that property loss was just the tip of the iceberg for Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina. The

financial toll from Hurricane Sandy alone will cost New York, New Jersey and Connecticut $71

billion (Tur, 2012). The loss is more than just property damage but has also negatively impacted

businesses profits and needed paychecks. After real estate and infrastructure damages, business

interruption was the next highest ranking portion of the documented storm loss (Coscarelli,

2012).

Under the current mayor, Thomas Menino, there have been several task forces put in

place to begin assessing Boston’s vulnerabilities associated with “rising tides” (Douglas et. al,

16

2013b). The momentum needs to continue with the new mayoral regime. As did Boston’s

forefathers, our current city leaders need to continually assess readiness to deal with sea level

rise. The city continues to grow in significance as an economic, educational and cultural hub.

Any expansive plans for sea level rise preparedness need to be multi-faceted in perspective.

Plans need to review and incorporate the current status of city services and infrastructure, citizen

and the business community support, legislative implications and economic viability, to name

just a few.

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Methods

This Capstone Project utilized qualitative research methodology to discuss Boston’s sea

level rise risk with both experts in the field and non-experts. The report will assess: 1) opinion of

experts and published data on current best scenarios that address sea level rise risk and 2) the

general public’s reactions and how their attitudes and motivations could influence the outcomes

for Boston. A primary research question that this Capstone Project attempts to answer is: “Is the

average Boston resident aware, and ready, to do what is necessary to protect their property and

the city’s infrastructure from sea level rise damage?”

Experts who can help the city build an adaptation plan come from the scientific,

academic, engineering, architectural, and city planning fields. Opinions of Boston residents, full-

time workers who commute to Boston, business leaders and voters, who ultimately determine the

future direction for the city, also affect the success of any sea level adaptation plans. Qualitative

data gathered for this report may result in possibly inaccurate or biased subjective data from non-

experts; however this data is relevant in determining how effective politicians and other city

leaders may or may not be in alerting the public.

Appendix 1 and 2 of this report will give full information on research questions and focus

group guidelines used in drafting the results and conclusions in this report. A limiting factor that

must be acknowledged is that due to time constraints, the full range of audiences was not

surveyed in time for the completion of this Capstone Project. Secondary research methods

utilized were scientific reports and, as the topic is a rapidly moving topic, current newsprint

articles with both sources cited throughout this document.

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Data and Results

The issue of sea level rise is constantly changing in focus and importance. The fact is

though, that more than $463B of Boston’s waterfront assets is at risk of flooding and damage

(Green Ribbon Commission, 2013a). And, time is not on our side. The potential negative impact

and severity of climate change is escalating while recommendations from multiple sources on

best solutions create the potential for uncertainty, confusion and delays. The Data and Results

section of this report will outline the most recent climate change facts; update the status of recent

storm damage in the U.S. and how Boston is reacting to both.

Overview of Most Recent of Climate Change Science

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) confirmed in their most recent

report to the United Nations that current levels of global warming are due to anthropogenically

induced CO2 in the atmosphere (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Working Group I,

2013a). The results of this climate change will vary around the globe; however one that will

impact a significant portion of life on earth is the escalating rise in sea levels. The importance of

data confirming that escalating levels of CO2 are manmade, gives credence to attempts in recent

years to make the industrialized regions of the world, such as Boston, aware and responsible for

damages. The responsibility of determining the level of past damages is not formalized, but a

measure could be the number of years that a nation has been industrialized, along with

documentation of how their citizens’ current fossil fuel consumption impacts the future health of

the atmosphere.

Those who disagree with these IPCC findings argue that sea levels have ebbed and

flowed over the millenniums, and through these eras the patterns of global sea level have kept

pace with the pattern of CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and global temperatures. These

19

three measures (global sea levels, parts per million [ppm] of CO2 in the atmosphere, and global

temperatures) have been much discussed by environmentalists over the past decade. Because

these patterns have been in synch for hundreds of thousands of years, they have also been the

basis for arguments on why the current patterns of climate change are normal. These debates

would still be viable if not for the escalation in CO2 levels that we have seen develop since the

Industrial Revolution. Measured levels of CO2 have increased most significantly since the early

1970’s and are estimated to be approximately 393 ppm, and increasing (National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration, Earth System Research Laboratory, 2013).

Figure 10: Historical trends in Climate Change Leading Indicators

(Hansen & Sato, 2011, as adapted by Englander, 2013)

This spike in CO2 is significant if the trends of these indicators remain in synch. It is

expected that the documented rise in CO2 concentration will cause rising global temperatures,

resulting in raised ocean temperatures and followed by increasing global sea levels. “Ocean

20

thermal expansion and glacier melting have been the dominant contributors to 20th century

global mean sea level rise. Observations since 1971 indicate that thermal expansion and glaciers-

excluding the glaciers in Antarctica - explain 75% of the observed rise (high confidence)”

(IPCC, 2013b). The contribution of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has increased since

the early 1990s, partly from increased outflow induced by warming of the immediately adjacent

ocean” (IPCC, 2013c). “Greenland has seen a 10 fold increase in ice melt in the past 5 years.

Antarctic melt is slower but more devastating as Antarctica has 7x’s more ice than Greenland”

(Englander, 2013).

Figure 11: Acceleration of Greenland and Antarctic Ice Mass Reduction

(Velicogna, 2009, as adapted by Hansen and Sato, 2011)

Studies have suggested that Boston’s location on the northeastern shores of the U.S.

makes the city more vulnerable than other coastal cities. The Union of Concerned Scientists has

measured Boston’s average sea level rise at 13 inches since 1880, rising 5 inches faster then the

global average (Union of Concerned Scientists, 2013a). If Greenland and Antarctic melt

continues to accelerate, Boston’s rate of sea level rise will also increase.

21

“Along the East Coast, changes in the path and strength of ocean currents are

contributing to faster-than-average sea level rise. Shrinking land ice from glaciers,

ice caps, and ice sheets contributed about half of the total global sea level rise

between 1972 and 2008 and its contribution has been increasing since the early

1990s as the pace of ice loss has accelerated. Recent studies suggest that land ice

loss added nearly half an inch to global sea level from 2003 to 2007, contributing

75 to 80 percent of the total increase during that period” (Union of Concerned

Scientists, 2013b).

Figure 12: 1880 - 2013, Cumulative Sea Level Rise of Thirteen U.S. Coastal Cities

(Union of Concerned Scientists, 2013c)

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“With records going back to 1920, U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Agency

(NOAA) data of Boston Harbor indicate that, over the past century, the relative sea level has

risen about 10 inches. Scientists estimate that about half of this is from rise in the absolute sea

level, and half from land subsidence. Projections of sea level rise for Boston range from 2 feet to

as much as 6 feet by the end of the century” (City of Boston, 2013b).

Figure 13: Sea Level Rise Study of Boston, MA (1921-2011) at 95% Confidence

(NOAA, Earth System Research Laboratory (2012) as cited by City of Boston (2013)

The issue of land subsidence, resulting from shore erosion due to rising tides and storm

surges, only exacerbates the sea level damage potential. The resulting change to Boston’s flood

plains will make the city even more vulnerable to storm surge damage over time. Referring back

to the NOAA fact that 50% of Boston’s rise in harbor level is attributed to sea level rise, the

other 50% can then be attributed to land erosion and an increasing flood plain. It could be argued

that whatever is the expected global sea level, at any point in time, Boston’s sea level increase

may be twice as high due to the loss of natural sea buffers and erosion of land built on land fill.

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Figure 14: Floodplain Erosion Impacts on Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise

(Union of Concerned Scientists, 2013d)

Impact of Hurricane Sandy to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeastern Regions of the U.S.

On October 29th

of 2013, the United States observed the one year anniversary of

Hurricane Sandy. There are several updates to the damage, with several areas still suffering from

multiple issues resulting from of the storm. Even one year later, some of these issues are still

unresolved. Hurricane Sandy has caused $71 billion in damage in the United States (Sullivan &

Uccellini, 2013) making it the second-costliest weather disaster in American history after 2005’s

Hurricane Katrina (Porter, 2013). It also covered the largest storm area on record, with winds

extending 175 miles out from storm’s eye (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,

2012).

One year after the storm, the most salient updated facts include:

One hundred and fifty nine people lost their lives in the United States, with drowning

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cited as the most common cause of death (Center for Disease Control, 2013).

There were 650,000 personal residences and 250,500 insured vehicles damaged (Aon

Benfield, 2013a).

More than 300,000 business properties were damaged, resulting in lost profits (some on-

going) and reduced economic output for the impacted areas (Aon Benfield, 2013b). Total

business loss estimates are close to $18.75 billion (Artemis, 2013). The subsequent

spillover losses (decrease in consumer purchasing, unemployment) associated with this

lack of business activity are unknown.

During Hurricane Sandy's immediate aftermath, more than 8.5 million customers lost

power, according to reports from FEMA. One week after the storm, 1.3 million were still

without power (Magill, 2013).

Hurricane Sandy set historical maximum recorded water levels at several shore locations:

(NY) Battery Park, Kings Point, and Bergen Point. (NJ) Sandy Hook. (CT) Bridgeport

and New Haven. (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), 2012).

The NOS tide gauges at Battery Park and Bergen Point recorded storm tide values of 9.0

feet and 9.53 feet above Mean Higher High Water (Blake, Kimberlain, Berg, Cangialosi

& Beven, 2013a).

The highest storm surge was recorded at Battery Park at 14.06 feet, surpassing the record

for that area of 10.02 feet, set in 1960 (Blake et. al, 2013b).

Post storm, Mid-Atlantic flood maps were updated for the first time in 20 years, doubling

the number of New York City structures in “High Risk” areas to 70,000 (FEMA, as cited

by Buckley, 2013).“High Risk” are areas with a 1% annual chance of flooding and a 26%

chance of flooding over the life of a 30-year mortgage (FEMA, 2013c).

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Figure 15: FEMA’s 1983 Flood Plain Zone (L) and actual flooding from Hurricane Sandy (R)

(New York City Mayor’s Office, 2012)

Updated flood maps for Boston and coastal New England were made available in

November 2013 and, as expected, they expanded the populations considered living in high risk

areas (FEMA, 2013d). FEMA flood zone updates will be on-going, and more updates to the New

York and New Jersey flood maps are expected in 2015.

NBC News has reported that 26,000 citizens are still displaced from their homes, one

year after Hurricane Sandy (Burkey, 2013). Insurance payments and federal aid are slow in

coming to those impacted financially and emotionally by the storm. To date, FEMA has made

$14.9 billion in Federal government payments (FEMA, 2013e):

$1.4 billion in Individual Assistance payments to 182,000 impacted households.

$2.4 billion in low-interest disaster loans from the U.S. Small Business Administration.

$7.9 billion in National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) payments.

$3.2 billion to reimburse impacted State’s emergency work, debris removal, repair and

replacement of infrastructure.

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New England has received over $125.9 million in Federal funding toward Hurricane

Sandy recovery (FEMA, 2013f). The majority has been paid to Connecticut and Rhode Island.

The sum of total payments from the Federal Government to all Hurricane Sandy victims is

approximately 21% of the total losses cited. A concern for Boston is what can be expected, in

Federal aid, if the same level of storm devastation impacts our city’s infrastructure and

economy?

“We can’t predict the next storm, but you know what? We can be prepared for it,’’ Mayor

Thomas M. Menino said at a press conference at the New England Aquarium. Asked specifically

how much better prepared Boston really is or is not for a storm like (Hurricane) Sandy now

compared to a year ago, Menino said: “I think we’re in better shape than we were a year ago.

We’re not perfect, that’s for sure” (Howe, 2013 as cited by Boston Harbor Association, 2013).

The risks are real. The Boston Harbor Association (BHA) is a non-profit organization

founded in 1973 to promote a clean, alive and accessible Boston Harbor (Boston Harbor

Association (BHA), 2013a). They have projected what areas of Boston would flood when a “100

Year Flood” strikes. The term 100 Year Flood is defined as a flood of that has a 1% chance of

happening in any year. This term is confusing, as the continuous increase in sea level has made

the tide levels higher each year, increasing the likelihood what might have been a storm surge

easily accommodated in the past, will result in flooding.

The most recent sea level rise projections indicate that flood water will regularly cover

the 100-year flood plain by 2040, and the 500-year flood plain by 2070 (Kirshen, Watson,

Douglas, Gontz, Lee & Tian, 2007). Hurricane Sandy, if it had hit at high tide, would have most

likely flooded 6% of Boston. If sea levels rise by 2 ½ feet, 30% of Boston will flood in a similar

storm (BHA, 2013b). BHA has published two storm surge scenarios, mapping what areas of the

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city would flood if a 5 foot or 7 ½ foot storm surge hit Boston at high tide. While attempting to

accurately determine impacted regions the BHA warns, “These maps probably underestimate the

extent of flooding from higher sea levels because they do not include wave heights and other

effects” (Douglas et al., 2013c).

Figure 16: Boston Harbor, Average High Tide (Mean Higher High Water) With 5 Foot Surge

(Boston Harbor Association, 2013c)

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Figure 16 shows the expected damage from a 5 foot surge. While the Charles River dam

would hold; East Boston, Chelsea, South Boston, the Seaport and Financial Districts would

suffer significant damage. Figure 17 shows the expanded impact of a 7 ½ foot flood.

Figure 17: Boston Harbor, Average High Tide (Mean Higher High Water) With 7.5 Foot Surge

(Boston Harbor Association, 2013d)

Considering New York’s Hurricane Sandy storm surge, where some areas suffered up to

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12 to 14 feet of floodwater, Figure 17 is likely scenario. In this instance, the Charles River dam

would breach. The neighborhood most affected at this higher flood projection is East Boston,

with over 140 million square feet of land submerged but 12 others neighborhoods, including

Somerville and Cambridge, would be more than 50% flooded (BHA, 2013e). Only 5 of greater

Boston’s neighborhoods would not flood with either scenario: Hyde Park, Jamaica Plain,

Mattapan, Roslindale, and West Roxbury. When discussing these maps, BHA warns that “the

impact of coastal flooding on the City of Boston could additionally be quantified in a variety of

ways such as property damage, displaced residents, lost productivity, and/or impact on public

health. This analysis is by no means comprehensive” (Douglas et al., 2013d).

At their November Annual Meeting, BHA offered an updated finding by reporting that

New England’s seacoast offers a protective barrier that may have offered additional shelter from

Hurricane Sandy. The topography of Cape Cod and the Harbor Islands offer natural buffers to

north bearing hurricane winds and storm surges (Wormser, 2013). BHA hopes that this will give

Boston time to consider best measures. Opposing opinions may consider this new perspective a

confounding point and should not be a reason for lack of mobility.

Preparing for Boston’s Risk of Sea Level Rise

One of the earliest reports on Boston’s risk is entitled Climate’s Long-Term Impacts on

Metro Boston (CLIMB) (Kirshen, Anderson & Matthais, 2004). The report structure sets the

foundation for discussions to assess what steps are best to build a sea level adaptation plan that

can gain the support of the majority. The study reviews the economic and environmental risks for

three different strategies, allowing planners to address costs, and each strategy’s short and long

term impact.

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1) “Ride It Out”: no adaptive steps are taken to protect against sea level rise except

rebuilding residential, commercial property and public infrastructures after they are damaged.

There is no preventive cost associated with this approach, and it also assumes that there is no

communication on risks, no green initiatives to address the causes of global warming and

weather change. No attempts are made to reinforce Boston and the area could see economic

devastation on a par with that suffered in Hurricane Sandy. This is fundamentally to “do

nothing” and repair or rebuild as the damage is done.

2) “Build Your Way Out”: consider limited initiatives and pre-planning to address risks.

Concrete measures such as sea walls and bulkheads are implemented, along with social programs

such as community outreach and strategies to help individual property owners take advantage of

best practices. If the implementation of a “Build Your Way Out” is fragmented or ineffective, it

is most likely the second most costly scenario, behind doing nothing at all.

3) A “Green” Scenario: an implementation of structural and nonstructural coastal flood-

management measures to protect Boston’s infrastructure. Ideas cited include new building codes,

early warning systems in anticipation of extreme weather conditions, and the maximization of

strategies to minimize the effects of flooding in metro Boston. New structures are completely

flood proofed when they are built and existing buildings are flood proofed at the time of sale.

The CLIMB report stresses that this investment in infrastructure will result in the lowest

financial outlay, while offering the highest environmental benefits.

Past U.S. Hurricanes have alerted us to the true risks of doing nothing, and the city of

Boston is not considering the “Ride It Out” scenario as a valid option, however the same might

not be said of commercial and residential property owners. A concern is that without proper

guidelines, real estate owners’ attempts to protect against flooding may be incomplete or

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inadequate, falling under the category of “Build Your Way Out”.

Most agree the Green Scenario makes the most sense, however how best to achieve that

result is much debated. The following is a high level overview of the most discussed strategies at

the city level, along with most recent known status for each. The sea level plan for Boston is a

multi-faceted work in progress, with no one strategy taking a lead as of this writing. Ideas are

categorized as follows: 1) Engineering Models utilizing Hard Infrastructure, 2) Adaptation

Initiatives: Learning to Live with Water, 3) Reinforcing Existing Building and Infrastructure and

4) Teamwork: Securing the Business and Residential Community.

Engineering Models Utilizing Hard Infrastructure

There are several successful models of how engineering ingenuity can protect vulnerable

areas from sea level rise damage. The most ambitious in recent history is found in The

Netherlands, a country similar to Boston, being settled on land at and below sea level. The

Netherlands has invested significantly in flood prevention infrastructure with a series of projects

and structures that they refer to as Delta Works. The impetus for the Dutch project came in 1953,

after a devastating North Sea flood impacted the region. Completed in 1997, it was a massive

multi-year undertaking that cost nearly $6.5 billion US (Deltawerken.com, 2013).

The economics of this strategy are a critical issue for Boston to consider as it would be

significantly higher to do a project of this magnitude in 2013 dollars. Also, maintenance is an

ongoing expense for the Netherlands, reported to be an annual expense of $1.5 billion (Wolman,

2008). As adaptation plans for Boston are reviewed, in order to assess any option, total estimated

costs for all recommendations need to be specifically detailed and include likely funding sources.

John Deutch, former Undersecretary of Energy during the Carter administration and now

Institute Professor at MIT, lectured at the 2013 Harvard’s Future of Energy lecture series. In his

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remarks, Professor Deutch stated that during his tenure at the Energy Department, he would not

have even considered a project unless the costs were fully communicated, even at the discussion

stage (Deutch, 2013). This same approach makes sense for Boston and a concern with several of

the plans under review is a lack of detailed accounting of costs.

Figure 18: The Maeslantkering Sea Gate, Rotterdam, The Netherlands

(Photo: Aero Lin, 2013)

The Netherlands is not the only European country utilizing aggressive engineering to

protect their lands from the sea. London and Venice have invested in significant, on-going

infrastructure upgrades. London installed the Thames Barrier in 1982, as a defense against a

repeat of the same North Sea storm surge that wreaked havoc on The Netherlands in 1952. Its

value in defending the city has been proven. “Since 1983 the Thames Barrier has been closed

107 times (as of January 2008). In 2001 the barrier was closed 15 times and is expected to be

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closed 30 times a year in 2030 in order to maintain the current standard of tidal defense”

(Wilmott, Horsburgh & Scott, 2013). Venice just completed a ten year project to install the first,

of 78 Mose Sea Gates in Venice Harbor. These mobile flood barriers will shut off the lagoon in

the event of rising sea levels and winter storms (British Broadcasting Company, 2013). All of

these projects are examples of the measures and expense that Europe feels are warranted to

protect their city assets.

The economic impact of these hard infrastructure initiatives is daunting. However, to put

the expense of a project like Netherland’s Delta Works on a par for Boston, the cost in today’s

dollars could be similar to Boston’s Central Artery Tunnel Project, “The Big Dig”. This ten year

project built an underground tunnel system to submerge the city’s raised central highway, Route

93. It was a major project designed to beautify the downtown area of the city, with the end goal

of reconnecting Boston’s to its waterfront. Recent reports cite the total cost for that project was

$24 billion (Moskowitz, 2012).

A strategy of building hard infrastructure in Boston has roots dating back to the early

1900’s when the Charles River and Amelia Earhart dams were constructed. Architect Antonio

DiMambro proposed a new, ambitious civil engineering plan. DiMambro’s concept is to link the

Boston Harbor Islands, forming a colossal sea belt made with fifteen foot barrier gates. When

conceived in 1998, the projected cost was $3 to $5B (DiMambro, 1998, as cited by Joyce, 2011).

The projections for 2013 dollars are unknown. Critics of the plan cite concerns that the gates

would disrupt trade and needed access to the seaport region by freighters and cruise ships. Even

with these very real concerns, the concept of utilizing an engineered solution is a very real

consideration that needs to be part of a coordinated approach.

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Figure 19: Enclosing Boston’s Harbor with Sea Gates

(DiMambro & Murray, 2000)

A coordinated approach needs to ensure that these massive structures maximize smaller

adaptation strategies that utilize existing green technologies to lessen risks. A methodical

implementation of strategies will reveal weak spots in existing and new infrastructure, making

the need for hard infrastructure unnecessary, or a final step in a progressive strategy.

Adaptation Initiatives: Learning to Live with Water

The political implications of an effective sea level adaptation plan for Boston are

significant. Mayor Thomas Menino has been a long term advocate of a more environmentally

aware Boston with successful initiatives that offer incentives for commercial and home energy

efficiency, requirements that new commercial construction follow Leadership in Energy and

Environmental Design (LEED) Green Building guidelines, and innovative programs to promote

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community change such as Boston’s Rental Bike program. The efforts are working. A study of

34 major cities by the American Council for an Energy-Efficiency Economy, reported that

Boston takes first place in reducing energy usage (American Council for an Energy-Efficiency

Economy, 2013).

Even with these successful environmental results, adapting to the inevitable damage from

climate change is still a work in progress. The report, A Climate of Progress: City of Boston’s

Climate Action Plan states that “for Boston, the most serious (weather related) consequences are

sea-level rise, increased frequency and intensity of heat waves, and increased intensity of

storms” (City of Boston, 2011). While Boston’s current mitigation measures are important, they

are only half of what needs to happen to make a more immediate impact. “Climate adaptation

must be thoroughly integrated into all planning and project review conducted by the City” (City

of Boston, 2010). To that end, the Climate of Progress report cites the following as necessary

adaptation initiatives to specifically address sea level risks:

Open Spaces and Wetlands Ordinance

Planning, Zoning, and Project Review

Water and Sewer Infrastructure

Emergency Preparedness

Transportation Infrastructure and Planning

The new Wetlands Ordinance was completed this fall, 2013. The regulations took ten

years to draft and they are a step in the right direction. The ordinance was slow in development

and only addresses protecting wetlands from this point forward, not rebuilding lost wetland

buffers. Other measures in this Climate of Progress report are being reviewed, with the

responsible city managers assessing vulnerabilities, determining what needs to be in place and

what would be the economic impact of any recommendations.

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Major results will not be communicated until 2014, when the expert findings will be

reported and reviewed. A political consideration that is looming over all decisions is the election

of a new mayor in Boston. For instance, while a candidate, Mayor Elect Martin Walsh

recommended a restructure of the Boston Redevelopment Authority (BRA) (Ross, 2013)

however, recently he stated that he was “easing on talks of a BRA overhaul” (Ross & Luna,

2013). This is good news as the BRA is an organization that is at the center of any decisions

regarding new construction and waterfront development in Boston. It is expected that there will

many changes as the new Mayor prepares to take office but as of this report writing, no specifics

have been announced regarding sea level adaptation.

Still, innovative solutions continue to be considered. At a recent public forum, Kairos

Shen, Chief Planner for Boston Redevelopment Authority reported that the city is considering

protecting subway entrances and tunnels with plugs designed to keep water out in the event of a

storm surge (Shen, 2013).

Figure 20: “Super Plug”

(New York Metropolitan Authority, 2013)

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Figure 20 is a visual of one such plug, nicknamed the “Super Plug”. It has been

successfully tested by the Federal Government (Homeland Security, 2013) and is in active

testing mode in New York City (Donahue, 2013). Boston is planning to utilize these plugs at the

MBTA Blue and Orange lines closest to the Aquarium and various tunnel locations throughout

the city. The timeline for this project is unknown.

The Boston Harbor Association (BHA), working jointly with known scientific experts,

prepared the report, Preparing for the Rising Tide to specifically address the most likely flood

impacts to the city of Boston. Presented to the city in early 2013, it is a guide for policy makers,

planners and property owners to assess their vulnerabilities, by location, and help to increase

resilience to coastal flooding over time. The tone of the report is how best to “live with water”

rather than exclusively utilizing measures to prevent flooding.

The report highlights the concept of flood “resilience” by focusing on natural solutions or

practical methods that, when implemented, allow impacted regions to recover quickly and

relatively inexpensively from flooding. It cites transferable solutions, in place at sea vulnerable

existing structures such as The Marriott at Boston Harbor, and new building innovations

showcased at Spaulding Rehabilitation Hospital in Charlestown.

Some strategies allow for the fact that some landscapes will flood, so rebounding from

flood damage is applied as an alternative to maximum “resistance” strategies when structures are

designed to keep water out at all costs. BHA reports ways that other coastal cities, Seattle and

Charlotte, S.C. for example, have developed “floodable zones”. These zones preserve access to

waterfronts while minimizing damage when periodic flooding occurs. This concept of “living

with water” is a natural and viable option for Boston to consider.

"Many cities who’ve been dealing with coastal flooding longer than

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Boston have shifted from trying to armor their waterfronts with sea dams

and levees to instead provide "floodable areas" where water can enter and

exit through above- or below-ground channels," said Julie Wormser,

Executive Director of The Boston Harbor Association. "What if instead of

building a dam across the Harbor Islands we created a series of below-grade

canals to let the water into the city in controlled, beautiful ways? We could

create a "sapphire necklace" that protects Boston's vulnerable infrastructure

while adding great public open space to our city.” (Personal conversation

with Ms. Wormser).

Utilizing natural buffers has growing universal appeal to environmentalists and

engineers. Green roofs and protecting wetland areas are increasingly a recommendation for

urban areas. Figure 21 highlights an innovative 100% natural approach to protecting Boston

Harbor, as recommended by Sasaki Associates (an architectural firm in Watertown, MA).

Figure 21: Utilizing Natural Buffers to protect Boston Harbor

(Sasaki and Associates, 2013)

Quincy South Boston Spectacle Island Inner Harbor Logan Airport

Airport

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Figure 21 offers a vision and the motivation to see what might be possible utilizing natural

elements in the fight against rising seas.

An important recommendation of the BHA report stresses the need for properties and

neighborhoods to perform vulnerability assessments that will identify current weaknesses,

estimate future conditions and analyze sensitivity and resilience to identified future impacts.

Building-specific preparedness actions might include initial resilient building design,

sandbagging entrances, or flood proofing the basement and first floor. Neighborhoods might add

or improve surrounding infrastructure, such as flood walls and well-drained open space. After

these measures have been studied and implemented, investment in large-scale infrastructure such

as storm surge barriers or levee systems can be reviewed (Douglas et al., 2013e).

Reinforcing Existing Structures: A New Model for City Resiliency

Boston is an old city, with roots dating back 400 years. The city is proud of its historic

architecture, so improvements to a crumbling infrastructure are a constant process. “As one of

America’s oldest continuously occupied cities, Boston is made up of buildings constructed in

many different ways over a period of more than three centuries” (Boston Preservation Alliance,

2013). Architectural landmarks range from the Paul Revere house, built in 1680 to the most

recent landmark building, the Spaulding Rehab hospital, completed in 2012 and cited by many as

the most sea level resilient structure in Boston, to date.

Building Resilience in Boston is a 2013 report commissioned by Boston’s Green Ribbon

Commission and written by the Boston Society of Architects. It is an important step towards

Boston assessing existing vulnerabilities to potential sea level damage, especially in diagnosing

what is needed to protect one of the city’s most valuable assets - existing commercial property

and supporting infrastructure. The report reviewed best practices and recommendations that both

40

the Federal Government and the City of New York have created post Hurricane Sandy. The

recommendations best suited for Boston were incorporated in the final recommendations.

Keeping citizens safe is an ongoing thread cited throughout the report. Planning for

extreme heat and violent, excessive rainstorms includes the creation of adequate places of refuge.

The city will utilize best technology to alert residents to oncoming threats and catastrophes

including procedures for evacuation and shelter in place orders. In a personal conversation, Paul

Kirshen (co-author of the CLIMB and Preparing for the Rising Tides reports) and an advisor to

the Green Ribbon Commission, states: “We know what we need to do in the event of an

emergency. Our number one priority is to make sure that there is no loss of human life”. This

Green Ribbon Commission report reinforced the thoughts expressed by many, that of all of the

potential climate hazards that could impact Boston, flooding is the most likely to occur.

The main focus of the report is recommending what needs to be done to retrofit existing

buildings and surrounding landscapes for future resiliency. The report is detailed, offering

guidelines for commercial, municipal and residential properties with additional analysis by

neighborhood where population density and risk to flood damage can vary. The social

implications of the recommendation are also reviewed; citing the areas of Boston that have a

high percentage of low income residents, renters, or elderly citizens. The many environmental

ethics issues that may arise based on the demographics of a particular neighborhood are

important considerations. City elders and the business community have a moral responsibility to

make certain that considerations are equitable, especially if certain neighborhoods cannot afford

make needed improvements without assistance.

Teamwork: Securing the Business and Residential Communities Involvement

There does not seem to be a lack of ideas on what can be done to physical infrastructure

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to protect Boston. Coordination of efforts, funding sources and leadership responsibilities are key

factors that have not yet been addressed in the white papers cited. The Boston Green Ribbon

Commission is a group of “business, institutional and civic leaders in Boston working to develop

shared strategies for fighting climate change” (Green Ribbon Commission (GRC), 2013b). The

commission is led by John Cleveland and includes several prominent business leaders who have

taken a public stance on the importance of environmental stewardship. Committing to coordinate

efforts with Mayor Thomas Menino’s Climate Action Plan, the plan includes strong

recommendations on how Bostonians can “greenovate”, increase efficiencies, reduce emissions

and prepare for extreme weather and higher sea levels (GRC, 2013c).

The GRC working groups are reaching out to new audiences in an effort to educate and

involve the following business sectors, specifically: Commercial Real Estate, Health Care and

Higher Education. An important goal, and one where the business sector can make a unique

impact, is by aligning insurance incentives where major casualty insurers can “align risk-related

market signals with desired property owner behaviors” (GRC, 2013d). The committee will also

advocate for the appropriate policy and program changes at the City and State levels (such as

changes in building and zoning codes). Lobbying for financial incentives to change awareness

and behavior are key motivators.

Two other unique deliverables of the committee are in the areas of Climate Preparedness

and efforts to Greenovate Boston. The Greenovate Boston committee efforts are to develop a

“comprehensive communications strategy that builds awareness and inspires broad behavior

changes” (GRC, 2013e). City residents, commuters and visitors need to know what risk levels

are likely, for them personally as well as the city at large. Boston’s response is hopeful:

“An important responsibility of City government is to help Boston

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businesses and residents prepare for emergencies. The major events of the past

twelve months, including Hurricane Sandy, Nor’easter Nemo, the 2013 Boston

Marathon bombings, and the Mayor’s 2013 February climate preparedness

directive have increased the focus of many departments on this effort. The

Marathon bombing taught the Department of Neighborhood Development

many lessons in helping businesses and residents recover from disaster, such as

how to navigate recovery resources including insurance, employment and

wage information, access to donated work space, and assistance coping with

trauma. It is particularly important that this help also be accessible and

available for low-income and vulnerable populations. Boston’s many tourists,

who are not familiar with city and its resources, are another special concern

during emergencies” (City of Boston, 2013c).

Ready Boston is a community emergency preparedness initiative effort empowered to

“educate and empower Bostonians about the hazards they may face and to encourage residents to

prepare for all types of hazards” (City of Boston, 2013d). The effort is prepared presently to alert

citizens via telephone and the city’s official website as to weather related hazards (i.e.: calling

senior citizens to alert of weather hazards and where they can take shelter). The efforts are in line

with the city goal to save lives. While Boston has done a good job in planning for citizen safety,

much more is needed to help citizen’s protect property and quality of life in the event of

catastrophes.

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Discussion, Conclusions and Recommendations

Discussions on how best to prevent loss from sea level rise become a challenge with

confusion, futility and skepticism all contributing to sluggish momentum in addressing the topic.

Practical issues that could kill progress are lack of funding, poor communication of issues and

risks, inadequate plan execution and community support. These items need to be proactively

addressed, along with a prioritization of best steps and an escalated sense of urgency. All are

needed to make any ideas under review become reality.

Mayor Thomas Menino has offered strong leadership on what Boston needs to do to

protect the city in the event of several weather related risks. This paper has highlighted those

most discussed. High level talks are planned to continue well into 2014 before any decisions are

made. There is no lack of good ideas, but details from proposals need to be implemented in a

well-orchestrated timeline that is, as of this writing, unknown. An impediment to giving this

project a needed sense of urgency is that Boston has just elected a new mayor, and as with all

new political regimes, it will take even more time to determine which projects will ultimately

move forward.

Other deterrents to a final plan are the approach taken and desired end results. Some

recommendations under consideration offer incremental steps and approaches to building

resiliency; others prepare for a worst case scenario. These worst case scenarios offer the

strongest defense but would be the most expensive and take longest to implement. The

incremental steps, while more economically efficient, need to be implemented as part of a greater

master plan or they may fail. With either, the same practical issues impact moving forward to a

solution: funding, communication, plan execution and community support. None of the plans

discussed to date specifically address these issues, however the Green Ribbon Commission

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discussions come the closest.

Boston has not been unique in its approach to climate change adaptation. The path that

the city has followed was outlined by the National Academy of Sciences in 2010:

“In the short term, the adaptation actions that can most easily be deployed are

low-cost strategies with win-win outcomes, actions that offer near-term co-

benefits and actions that end or reverse maladapted policies and practices.

Short term opportunities at the national level include opportunities to revise

existing programs to take into account projected future climate changes;

examples include the National Flood Insurance Program; federal, state, and

professional engineering standards; and the Coastal Zone Management

program”(National Academy of Sciences, 2010).

Figure 22: Mapping Boston’s Climate Preparedness

(National Academy of Sciences, 2010, as adapted by Boston Green Ribbon Commission, 2013)

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This report proposes that we are beyond these initial, and arguably, relatively easy stages

of preparedness. Examples where Boston has followed this process have been the environmental

mandates for new commercial construction and the new Wetlands Ordinance. There are other

areas where the city may be dragging its heels. For instance, the city is reviewing the impact of

the updated FEMA flood maps that should have the city leaders prepare for an expanded area at

risk; however there is a “push-back” on incorporating these larger areas, most likely due to the

higher cost of insuring these regions. The city also stops short of enforcing more controversial

regulations, such as flood proofing requirements for existing structures or relocation of high risk

structures. This next phase of adaptation will come with many barriers (e.g. financial and social

impacts, environmental ethics implications, certainty of the long term effectiveness of

precautions). The greatest risk, however, will be moving too slowly or cautiously.

The community has a right to know what is needed to protect the city, and personal

property, from harm. A natural offshoot of the City’s Climate Action Plan is to communicate

what are the joint responsibilities of all parties interested in keeping Boston safe from the most

damaging effects of deadly risk. Sea level rise and storm surge need to be always front of mind

in official communications. City residents, commuters and visitors need to know what risk levels

are likely, for them personally as well as the city at large. As an economic hub, any damage to

Boston’s core will have a negative ripple effect on our suburbs, western Massachusetts, and

ultimately the country as a whole. The Community Advisory Committee on Climate Action

reports that Boston City Government hopes to facilitate the engagement of the Boston

community in climate action by adopting five interlocking elements:

1. Partner with community organizations at the neighborhood level.

2. Encourage community involvement in policy development, program planning, and

assessment.

46

3. Support a citywide awareness campaign that frames climate action in the context of

broad community concerns, informs people about climate action, and motivates them to

act.

4. Equip individuals to take action and influence their peers.

5. Continue to lead by example.

(Lubber & Hunt, 2010)

To reach these goals effectively, a coordinated effort is needed. As Boston assesses best

steps, there is currently no apparent chain of command or centralization of roles and

responsibilities at the city government level. The approach appears siloed, with individual areas

determining their specific needs. While individual efforts are important and can make a

significant impact, a flaw in Boston’s approach to date is a lack of documented approach in

coordinating efforts. This lack of coordination allows for gaps and ineffectiveness in any efforts.

The demands of building a plan to protect Boston from sea level risk are daunting. Boston has

been cautious and methodical in gathering experts and discussing ideas, however a significant

issue with Boston’s approach is plan fragmentation. Under Mayor Menino, individual city

managers are responsible for assessing readiness in their respective areas, exacerbating the risk

of a lack of centralization and urgency to focus on the topic of sea level rise as a singular issue.

Also, climate risk is discussed as a broader topic, with excessive temperatures in the same

category. The two risks are very different.

Another major concern is that Boston’s leader in this initiative has primarily been Mayor

Menino. Sea level adaptation was not a significant topic of concern during the elections. Will

new Mayor Martin Walsh keep the many segments of sea level rise adaptation plan moving

forward? With time being a critical factor, it will be important for the public to let the new mayor

know that sea level adaptation needs to be a priority.

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This brings focus to the final concern which is a lack of prioritization in communicating

issues to the public. How front of mind should the risks of coastal flooding be to the average

Bostonian? Is there a fear of “alarming” the public unduly, especially as there is no certainty in

the level and location of damage or timelines for most likely impacts? The damage could happen

next year, or not happen for the next 25 or 50 years.

The following question was posed to two focus groups this past October 2013, asking

participants to rank an issue’s importance to the city, especially in light of limited resources and

funding.

Figure 23: Focus Group Question Ranking Boston’s Top Priorities

(Wolff, 2013)

The question was posed before any discussion of sea level rise’s potential impact on

Boston, and then posed again after a 50 minute discussion on the topic. (See Appendix items 1, 2

and 3 for full focus group details and results). While not statistically significant, the results

highlighted in Figure 24 are interesting with the participants being relatively in synch with their

opinions on what should be Boston’s priorities:

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Figure 24: Focus Group Results - Ranking Boston’s Top Priorities

(Wolff, 2013)

Education ranked first, Homeland Security ranked last in importance. Sea level rise was

not a significant concern for the participants in these groups, even after discussing the scientific

data supporting the topic. It ranked fifth out of the six categories in both polls. The individuals

polled were all relatively in synch with where they felt Boston should focus efforts and funding.

Timing is everything though. If this question was asked in May of 2013, Homeland Security may

have been a top concern in the immediate aftermath of the Boston Marathon bombing. Sea Level

Adaptation would most likely see a spike in importance if asked in the wake of a major U.S.

storm. The group admitted to a low level of information on the topic of sea level rise, stating that

the possibility of excessive damage to Boston seemed “remote”. Participants felt that there was a

“30 percent change of a flood impacting Boston in the next 5 years”.

There could be several reasons why the participants ranked these issues the way they did.

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Education reform was a priority platform issue in the mayoral race and this poll was taken one

week before the election. And while sea level rise was low in both polls, here was a slight uptick

in concern after the group discussion. This supports the premise that a well-orchestrated, fact

based communication plan would put the issue appropriately in front of the public, allowing

people to be aware of the risks and issues. More importantly though, a communication campaign

could alert property owners and renters as to what is needed to protect property, give commuters

and small business owners alternative paths to keep businesses open, and give all interested

parties information on best practices, how to join the conversation and what they can do to help

curb risks.

The Need for and Benefits of Public Awareness and Communication

Boston has had documented success in securing community involvement (Boston’s

Energy Efficiency initiative) and allowing leaders to set direction in times of crisis (the Boston

Police’s Shelter-in-Place directive in the aftermath of the Boston Marathon tragedy). If those

with vision are given authority and appropriate measures are taken to secure funding, Boston can

make significant impact on sea level rise risk.

Leveraging Boston’s “green” success is important. An insight from October’s Focus

Group is participants questioning whether their environmental efforts (recycling, taking public

transportation, walking vs. riding) were making any difference. The city needs to show how our

success in energy efficiency has helped in practical terms (i.e.: money saved, how Boston can be

a model for other cities, how similar worldwide efforts lead to a drop in atmospheric CO2

levels). This could be a natural extension of our present environmental communication plan,

allowing a transition in message to sea level awareness. It is key that the city begin a strong

messaging campaign that sea level rise is a reality. The subtle, yet critical, element of the

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message is that we need to do two things as a community: prevent additional damage to the

environment and support a pro-active adaptation plan to protect us from damage that is

inevitable, even with the most aggressive of programs to reduce CO2 emissions. Also, only with

community awareness, involvement and support will there be the necessary funding - be the

source from taxation, shift in funding from other priorities, insurance or new building

construction and existing building renovation incentive programs. Drafted in 2010 as part of the

Greenovate Boston initiative, Boston’s Community Engagement Strategy outlines what

interested parties wish to accomplish for the community:

“Climate change is not part of the daily lives of most people, nor of the regular

business of most organizations. Climate action will require people and

organizations to adopt new behaviors and new ways of thinking, which, in the

long-term, can only be sustained when there are community-wide shifts in the

norms that guide how we live and use resources. To achieve these shifts, the

Boston community, with the leadership of city government, must reach out to all

its members by:

Recognizing the need for community-wide responsibility.

Engaging at all levels of social organization, from individuals, to non-profit

organizations, businesses, institutions, neighborhoods, and, finally, the city as

a whole.

Emphasizing the relationships between climate change and health, quality of

life, community well-being, and economic vitality.

Showing many different and appropriate ways that residents, businesses, and

institutions can begin to take action.

Establishing clear, broadly understood goals—for overall city-wide change

and for smaller components—against which progress is measured”

(City of Boston, 2010).

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This approach is sound but no significant action has been taken, to date. Along with

escalating implementation, a critical change in strategy is specifically to focus the message to

build awareness of the risks of sea level rise, vs. the more generic category of climate change.

Updated FEMA flood maps will be a needed wake-up call for many, as flood insurance

premiums will be raised significantly for those currently paying premium, and property owners

newly designated as in flood zones, will have the new expense of mandatory flood insurance.

This change in the flood zones is unpopular for the many impacted, with Boston

residences considered in significant danger of flooding increasing to 18,000 from 8,000

(Fernandez, 2013). However, to prepare and adapt to sea level rise damage potential, it is not

necessarily inappropriate for those who live in a flood zone to be aware of the risks associated

with their choice. It is appropriate to have the true costs of replacing damaged property reflected

in flood insurance premiums. Homeowners in Charlestown, East Boston, Boston’s North End

and Back Bay, Cambridge and South Boston will all be receiving wake-up calls once they get

their notice.

The National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) states “homes and buildings in high-risk

flood areas with mortgages from federally regulated or insured lenders are required to have flood

insurance. High-risk areas have a 1 in 4 chance of flooding during a 30-year mortgage” (National

Flood Insurance Program (NFIP), 2013a). The rates increases came about as a result of the

Biggert-Waters Reform Act of 2012, passed in the aftermath of Hurricanes Sandy and Katrina.

The regulations stipulate that policy premiums for new properties reflect the full-rate risk while

existing policies see 25% annual increases at policy renewal until premiums reach full-risk rates

(NFIP, 2013b). Consumer reactions to this perceived economic hardship create an excellent

opportunity to escalate community involvement in forming a solution. Figures 25 - 27

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map various, very likely flood projections.

Figure 25: 2013 Updated FEMA Flood Map of Boston Harbor*

(FEMA, 2013g)

*Legend: Black dots highlight the new regions considered by FEMA to be newly High Risk.

Zone AE: “Areas subject to inundation by the 1-percent-annual-chance flood event”

Zone VE: “Areas along coasts subject to inundation by the 1-percent-annual-chance flood event

with additional hazards due to storm-induced velocity wave action”

Federal floodplain management regulations and mandatory flood insurance purchase requirements

apply in these zones (FEMA, 2013h)

53

Figure 26: Visualization of Boston Harbor’s Updated FEMA Flood Map (flood line in red)

(Boston Globe, 2013a)

54

Figure 27: Flood Impact to Charles River, Financial District and Fort Point Channel

5 foot flood 71/2 foot flood

(Boston Globe, 2013b)

As might be expected, these maps have gotten much negative attention and will not take

effect until after an appeal and amendment period. The earliest the city of Boston expects to

adopt a final flood hazard map is December 2014 (City of Boston, 2013e). Concurrently,

Attorney General Martha Coakley and House Speaker Robert DeLeo have filed new legislation

to prohibit mortgage lenders from requiring homeowners and businesses to carry flood insurance

coverage for more than their loan balance. In this instance, if a home is worth $500,000, with a

$50,000 mortgage balance, the mandatory amount of flood coverage would be $50,000 (Trufant,

2013). There is push back as well on the validity of the flood maps, with Attorney General

Coakley alleging “the new FEMA flood rates are arbitrary and unlawful, failing to weigh the

known (economic) consumer harm” (Official Website of the Attorney General of Massachusetts,

2013). Conversely, a more practical view to equitable insurance premiums may be to consider

55

the true costs associated with clean up and losses associated with coastal flooding, but allow for

a way that insurance premiums and property taxes reflect steps that property owners and

communities take to reduce these risks.

FEMA does allow for premium reductions - however the requirements are difficult and

expensive for existing structures, especially personal residences. FEMA recommends “moving

machinery or equipment to higher floors, improving or create proper flood openings, raise the

entire structure above the base flood elevation or relocate your home on an area of your property

that has its natural grade above the base flood elevation” (FEMA, 2013i). Some of these requests

are impossible for Boston residents who live in brownstones and historic properties.

Alternatives that need to be considered, especially for personal residences, include:

insurance benefit considerations if property owner states that they will not rebuild, reduced

payouts/allowance or higher deductibles, premium discounts for wetland development on

personal property, sea walls and sand dunes, and considerations for premium rebates/discounts

for every 10 or 20 years without a claim. In the instance of a property owner agreeing to not

rebuild, that land would then default to public land and become part of a strategy to utilize

coastal properties as a natural defense against flooding. Additional steps, as recommended by the

Green Ribbon Commission should also reduce flood insurance premiums: building flood walls,

installing permeable pavement and landscaping buffers, reinforcing doors and windows to

withstand flooding and high winds, and acquiring backup power and water sources in case of an

emergency (GRC, 2013f).

City infrastructure should take responsibility for risks outside the scope of property

owners’ control. For example, municipal utilities need to ensure that toxic sewage and other

health risks from flooding are removed. Communities that take steps to reduce these life

56

threatening risks should see these improvements reflected in the insurance premiums of their

residents. An example where Boston has been a leader in this area is the work of Boston Water

and Sewage Commission (BWSC). The have received State of Massachusetts grants and loans

totaling more than $54 million for 71 different community sewers system improvement projects

(Laskey, 2011). This work raises a point in support of AG Coakley’s questions of FEMA - if

Boston’s infrastructure is indeed superior thanks to the work of BWSC, BRA and others - our

city premiums should reflect that advantage over a coastal community that has not taken the

same steps.

The most beneficial outcome of the community reaction to the FEMA flood maps is that

it is getting the reality of the issue front and center. This is a critical opportunity to make this

heightened sense of awareness a cause. Sea level adaptation should be a natural part of Boston’s

business as usual, addressing not only new construction in harm’s way, but coming up with an

actionable layered strategy that will address the needs of all of Boston’s citizens and

neighborhoods.

Next Steps

Boston’s efforts are impressive, but time is an issue when evaluating the efficacy of the

plan. We are not unique in approach, with several other cities moving cautiously as they assess

their sea level rise risks. The recommendation for Boston is that the city takes the national lead

by implementing the following prioritized action steps:

A Level Priorities: January 2014

Boston needs to designate a lead at City Hall with the responsibility of coordinating an

official Sea Level Adaptation effort. Immediate tasks: prioritize the risk assessments

57

provided by the various city entities who are currently analyzing specific areas of sea

level adaptation. Process and layer these recommendations, then do a gap analysis to

ensure that all aspects of sea level risk are understood.

Fund a regional Sea Level Rise Adaptation working group, consisting of representatives

from public, scientific and private entities representing the needs of the various towns

surrounding Boston Harbor. An orchestrated approach to implementation will ensure that

there is no duplication in efforts.

Of critical importance is to build a citizen awareness and public relations program,

alerting citizens as to why their current environmental practices have helped to improve

energy efficiency, however more is needed. Programs need to do more than encourage

behavior change, and should build awareness and support for both the long and short

term needs of sea level adaptation. As the costs of sea level adaptation are understood and

funding sources are found, community support is needed when increased taxes or other

change in revenue impacts citizens.

Figures 28 and 29: Examples of Community Sea Level Adaptation Campaign posters

(Figure: Clean Ocean Action.org, 2013, Figure: 350.org, 2013)

Determine realistic costs for the January 2014 recommendations and begin the process of

58

funding the needed work. Report these estimates in all official communications on

project work, along with the costs of inaction, allowing both the business community and

general public time to assimilate the realities of needed adaptations.

Be bold in approach. Especially when considering long term needs where the costs of

protecting infrastructure through ongoing preventative methods is more economically

sound then rebuilding after devastating loss.

B Level Priorities: August 2014 and beyond

Manage to the uncertainty of sea level rise. Look to the long term but build a strategy that

shows an ongoing approach that uses a combination of environmental, scientific and

engineering best practices. Mainstream sea level rise adaptation by incorporating sea

level rise and associated impacts into relevant local and regional plans and projects.

Take the lead in reforming current insurance programs to acknowledge the risk of sea

level rise, giving property owners relevant ways to protect property and reduce the future

risk of sea level rise. A recommendation of the Green Ribbon Panel is to “work with

major casualty insurers to align risk-related market signals with desired property owner

behaviors” (GRP, 2013g).

Initiate or enhance outreach, education, and training - build incentive programs for

potentially new audiences that can make a unique impact on adaptation: real estate

brokers, mortgage brokers, small business owners, property and casualty insurance

agents, landlords and the general public.

Advocate that regulatory agencies (such as FEMA) provide clear, specific, innovative

and consistent guidance on how to address sea level rise impacts to all aspects of city

growth and development. Encourage them to be a partner in change management.

59

Aggressively seek State and Federal aid. Boston contributes to a significant portion of the

US economy, and is a cultural, academic and scientific hub to not just the United States

but to a significant portion of the globe. The city is in a unique position to attest that our

physical location should remain. We also are a wealthy community that can - and should

- financially contribute to maintaining our desired position on the sea. All four funding

sources will be needed (Federal, State, City and both the Business and Residential

Communities) to secure the necessary support and resources.

The timing of these recommendations is tied to a 2014 hurricane season, when hopefully

these recommendations will be well underway. By proactively involving the greater community

in working towards preparedness, Boston will save not just lives and property in 2014; it will

allow the city to be prepared for the uncertainty of the future, as sea levels continue to rise.

60

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72

Appendix 1: Boston’s Sea Level Reaction/Focus Group Interview Guide

Objective: 5 focus groups from each participant category: property owners, small

business owner, commuter, renter, large employer. Prepare separate handouts for each

ranking question.

Completed for Capstone Project: two property owner groups, tapes of full discussion.

Limiting factor was time in securing other audiences for focus group discussion.

Moderator Opening: Briefly introduce topic of the evening. Set a baseline of opinion by

straw poll and discussion on the following questions and give out first handout.

1. In your opinion, is climate change a reality or are recent incidences of severe weather

(hurricanes, droughts, violent rains, drastic highs and lows in temperature) natural or due to

increased CO2 from fossil fuels?

2. How accurate do you feel are the scientific projections concerning increasing violent weather

in the next 50 years?

3. What should be the City of Boston’s top priority? (Rank the following, 1-6)

Crime

Education

Unemployment/economy

Housing

Homeland Security

Sea level adaptation

Moderator: Present an overview of current scientific data on climate change and sea level

rise in Boston.

4. In your opinion, what is the likelihood that a storm as damaging as Hurricane Sandy will hit

Boston in the next 5 years?

5. Who should be responsible for protecting Boston, and your property, against damage/loss

from storms (rank 1-5)?

Federal Government

Commercial Insurance industry

State Government

City Government

Personal responsibility

6. Who should be responsible to replace property if Boston is evacuated due to storm surge

damage? (Rank 1-6)

FEMA/Federal Government

Commercial Insurance industry

73

State Government

City Government

Business entity’s responsibility (for Boston based small businesses)

Personal responsibility

7. Are you aware of the current sea level resiliency plan for the city of Boston?

8. What is the most likely roadblock to moving forward with a logical plan?

9. What should be Boston’s top priority (rank the following)?

Crime

Education

Unemployment/economy

Housing

Homeland Security

Sea level adaptation

10. What would it take to have Sea Level adaptation move up in your rankings: a disaster, more

information, a specific plan, funding in place?

11. What is the best way to get the issue of protecting our city from sea level rise in front of

citizens?

Moderator: Thank participants. Review Boston’s best scenarios for adaptation for those

interested in staying.

74

Appendix 2: Focus Group Participant Opinion Questions (handout)

First handout: rank the following 1 - 6, with 1 being the most important.

1) What should be Boston’s top priority?

Crime

Education

Unemployment

Housing

Homeland Security

Sea level adaptation

Second handout: rank the following 1 - 6, with 1 being the most important.

1) Who is most likely to protect Boston, and your property, against damage from storms (1-5)?

Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA)

Commercial Insurance industry

State Government

City Government

Personal responsibility

2) Who should replace lost income/business profits in the event that you cannot get to work or

your place of business has been shut down (1-6)?

FEMA

Commercial Insurance industry

State Government

City Government

Business entity’s responsibility

Personal responsibility

3) What should be Boston’s top priority (rank 1-6)?

Crime

Education

Unemployment

Housing

Homeland Security

Sea level adaptation

75

Appendix 3: Focus Group Responses

76

Appendix 3 (cont.): Focus Group Responses

77

Appendix 4: State and Community sea level adaptation initiatives

State/Region Sea Level Adaptation

Initiative

Year Website Report(s)

Alaska Homer, Alaska and

Alaska Coastal Village

approaches to climate

change

2010 http://epa.gov/climatech

ange/impacts-

adaptation/

alaska-adaptation.html

Alaska’s Climate Change

Strategy:

Addressing Impacts in

Alaska

California/

San Diego

Sea Level Rise

Adaptation Strategy

for San Diego Bay

2012 http://www.icleiusa.org/

climate_and_energy/Cli

mate_Adaptation_Guid

ance/san-diego-bay-sea-

level-rise-adaptation-

strategy-1/san-diego-

bay-sea-level-rise-

adaptation-strategy

Sea Level Rise

Adaptation Strategy for

San Diego Bay

California/

San Francisco

San Francisco Bay

Climate

Change Planning

2011 http://www.bcdc.ca.gov

/proposed_bay_plan/bp

_amend_1-08.shtml

Living with a Rising Bay

Connecticut/

Groton

Groton Adaptation

Effort

2010 http://www.icleiusa.org/

climate_and_energy/

Climate_Adaptation_G

uidance/groton-

connecticut-coastal-

climate-adaptation-

workshop-meeting-

notes-and-

presentations?searchter

m=groton

Preparing for Climate

Change in Groton,

Connecticut: A Model

Process for Communities

in the Northeast

Gulf of Mexico Climate Community

Gulf of Mexico

2010 http://www.cakex.org/

case-studies/2811

Sea Level Rise in the

Gulf of Mexico:

Awareness and Action

Tools for the Climate

Outreach Community

Delaware Delaware Sea Level

Rise Adaptation Effort

2013 http://www.dnrec.delaw

are.gov/coastal/Pages/

DESLRAdvisoryComm

ittee.aspx

Preparing for

Tomorrow’s High Tide:

Recommendations for

Adapting to Sea Level

Rise in Delaware

Florida (SE) Southeastern Florida

Climate Change

Compact

2013 http://www.southeastflo

ridaclimatecompact.org/

Multiple reports

(See web link).

Florida/

Sarasota

Mote Marine

Laboratory

Assessment

2009 http://www.mote.org/in

dex.php?src=gendocs&r

ef=

Marine%20Policy%20I

nstitute_Sea%20Level

%20Rise&category=

Marine%20Policy%20I

nstitute

POLICY TOOLS FOR

LOCAL ADAPTATION

TO SEA LEVEL RISE

78

Appendix 4 (cont.): State and Community sea level adaptation initiatives

State/Region Sea Level Adaptation

Initiative

Year Website Report(s)

Florida/

Sarasota

Climate Ready

Estuaries Program

2010 http://sarasotabay.org/a

bout-sbep/climate-

ready-estuaries-

program/

PIER: Protection,

Involvement,

Education and

Restoration programs

Louisiana Coastal Master Plan –

2012

2012 http://www.coastalmast

erplan.

louisiana.gov/

Louisiana 2012 Master

Plan for a

Sustainable Coast

Maryland Maryland Department

of Natural

Resources

2013 http://www.dnr.state.md

.us/

CoastSmart/index.asp

Coast Smart Planning

for Sea Level Rise

Adaptation

Massachusetts Massachusetts Office

of Coastal Zone

Management (CZM)

2011 http://www.mass.gov/ee

a/agencies/czm/program

-areas/stormsmart-

coasts/

Storm Smart Coasts

New Jersey Department of

Environmental

Protection

2013 http://www.nj.gov/dep/

sage/ce-adapt.html

New Jersey Resiliency

Community

Network

New York Department of

Environmental

Conservation

2013 http://www.dec.ny.gov/

energy/45202.html

New York State Sea

Level Rise Task

Force report

New York City PlaNYC - Special

Initiative for

Rebuilding and

Resiliency

2013 http://www.nyc.gov/ht

ml/planyc2030/html/ho

me/home.shtml

A Stronger, More

Resilient New York

South Carolina Shoreline Change

Initiative

2007 http://www.scdhec.gov/

environment/ocrm/

shoreline_change.htm

Adapting to Shoreline

Change

Virginia Beach Virginia Beach

Community Listening

Sessions

2013 http://www.vbgov.com/

news/

Pages/selected.aspx?rel

ease=1649

Washington State of Washington

Coastal Response

Program

2012 http://www.ecy.wa.gov/

climatechange/2012ccrs

/coasts.htm

Multiple reports for

State and Local

Adaptation Resources

(See web link).