Jennifer Jackson

THREAT OF AN AERIAL TERRORIST ATTACK

“Anthrax, sprayed from the back of an aircraft on a cool, calm night, could take

out all of Washington D.C. This could cause up to three million fatalities compared to

two million from a hydrogen bomb.”1-2 There has been much discussion of the growing

threat of the use of unmanned (combat) aerial vehicles (UAVs), crop dusters, remote

controlled hobby planes, and cruise missiles for an aerial biological or chemical terrorist

attack on a civilian population, which has the potential of a catastrophic outcome such as

the above-described scenario.

There are some professionals who believe that the threat of an UAV attack is

small due to the fact that the “pay-load” would be small, that the UAV would likely be

shot down, or that biological and chemical agents are too complex and thus difficult to

disperse. On the other hand, many military personnel feel that the threat is too great to

ignore because of the guidance systems used to control the UAVs from a remote location

and the fact that these vehicles can fly under the radar.3-4

An armed UAV can do similar tasks as a manned vehicle and is made to deliver

agents or conventional weapons to kill and destroy as well as carry surveillance and

visual equipment for spying, while staying unharmed and returning to wait for its next

assignment. These weapon platforms are guided by ground (or air) control centers using

1 “Biological Terrorism” (2009). Jewish Virtual Library, Homepage. Retrieved on Feb 9, 2009 from: http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/jsource/terrorism/bioterror.html last paragraph under subheading “Toxicity”2 Stipp, D. (2001). Bioterror is in the Air. Fortune Vol 144, Iss 7, pg 151-1543 Ephron, D. and K. Peraino (2006). Hezbollah’s Worrisome Weapons. Newsweek Vol 148, Iss 11, pg 284 Stipp, D. (2001). Pg 1

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remote control systems.5-6 An UAV that is unarmed has the ability of surveillance by

using extended loitering abilities. Even more effective are advanced UAVs with

capabilities of both carry agents or conventional weapons and surveillance,

Communication, and visual equipment, thus “have become the most prominently featured

military instruments in America’s first war of the twenty-first century.”7 However, aerial

attacks have been around for decades. The U.S. has even done secret tests by spraying

organisms such as Serratia Marcescens over civilian populations, which resulted in

normal infections rising by 5-10 times the normal rate during this time. 8

Land Attack Cruise Missiles (LACMs) fly in a continuous, low, horizontal pattern

that hugs the earth thus avoiding radar, while dodging geographic landmasses and can

release biological or chemical agents in a long line of continuous contamination. Cruise

missiles are designed specifically to attack thus to deliver explosive warheads with or

without biological or chemical agents.9 Both UAVs and cruise missiles are aerial in

nature, are controlled from remote locations, and can position biological or chemical

agents through the air above the target civilian populations (See figure 1 & 2).10

Small planes such as private planes or crop dusters being used as a delivery tool

for biological and chemical weapons are also a current concern. The many reforms that

have been put into place for commercial airports and planes have not been issued to the

(Figure 1, UAV --Drone)

5 Kolff, D. (2003). Missile Strikes Carried out with Yemeni Cooperation –Using UCAVs to Kill Alleged Terrorists: A Professional Approach to the Normative Bases of Military Ethics. Journal of Military Ethics Vol 2, Iss 3, pg 240-244, pg 2426 Jackson, B.; D. Frelinger; M. Lostumbo; R. Button (2008). Evaluating Novel Threats to the Homeland: Unmanned Aerial Vehicles and Cruise Missiles. RAND National Defense Research Institute chpt 2, pg 147 Gormley, D. and R. Splier (2003). Controlling Unmanned Air Vehicles: New Challenges. Commissioned by the Nonproliferation Education Center. Retrieved on April 1, 2009 from: http://www.cns.miis.edu/npr/pdfs/102gorm.pdf 8 Mathew, T. (2001). Biotechnology in Defense. Defense Science Journal Vol 5, Iss 4, pg 393-399, pg 3959 Jackson, B. et al (2008). Chpt 2, pg 1410 Jackson, B. et al (2008). Chpt 3, pg 28

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Source: http://news.thomasnet.com/IMT/archives/Predator%20UAV.jpg

(Figure 2, Cruise Missile)

Source: http://www.softwar.net/BGM109.gfi

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private sector. Also there is a worry about “kit built” planes that do not need a runway as

well as the smaller hobby planes.11 After 9/11, there was a temporary order made by

officials that grounded all U.S. crop dusters for fear of further attack on the U.S. by

terrorists. This was due to the fact that there were reports that the terrorists who were

involved with the 9/11 attacks were also attempting to get crop dusters in Florida (See

figure 3).12 Biological weapons have the potential to be much more powerful than

conventional weapons because they can spread from person to person. The Department

of Justice held a “drill” for Government Officials and agencies, of a biological attack and

used the city of Denver as the setting. It unfolded as follows:

A rash of patients crowed local hospitals with flu-like symptoms and died within

hours. The outbreak was identified as plague, which was released by terrorists. Travel

was restricted and quarantine(s) put into place. Antibiotics were called in from the

National Stockpile, however, there was difficulty in dispersal and there was not enough

to go around. The next day, there were no beds left in the local hospitals, no antibiotics

to disperse, and the morgues were full. Panic had taken over the city while Federal,

State, and Local officials struggled to communicate. At the end of the drill, there were

too many dead, a food shortage, riots had erupted, and the disease had spread to other

states regardless of the restricted travel and quarantine, it was total chaos.13

Iraq has been actively working to modify the MiG-21 fighter into an UAV with an

on-board sprayer system to release biological or chemical weapons, however, this has

(Figure 3, Crop Dusters)

11 Gormley et al (2003). Pg 6, (Figure 3 Imagine retrieved from http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2004/justice/html12 Stipp (2001). Pg 113 Stipp (2001). Pg 2

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Responding to Unconventional Threats

Crop dusters spraying forest land.

The terrorists behind the horrific events of September 11th used commercial aircraft in an unconventional manner, aided by flight training that was easily obtained in the United States.  Intelligence gathered since then indicates that other missions involving aircraft—such as the use of crop dusters to spread toxic materials—may have been under consideration by terrorists.  As of the end of 2002, the new FTTTF has processed—on an expedited basis—over 27,000 background checks of pilots.  The FTTTF identified 194 individuals who were possible absconders (or aliens who have received and ignored final orders of deportation), traveling on stolen passports, or visa violators, for further investigation.  Increased scrutiny is already being given to flight school students, and will be critical to preventing future terrorist acts from the illicit use of private aviation.

Source: www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/fy2004/justice.html

been thus far unsuccessful. So Iraq is also trying, with more success, to use the Czech L-

29 Trainer plane to modify into a UAV, which is believed to have spray tanks as well

(See figures 4 & 5). The vehicles were equipped with both tanks for carrying biological

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or chemical agents and modified spray nozzles mounted on the wings.14 This would

allow for a large area of a civilian population to be contaminated in which almost all of

the “pay-load” would survive in the right conditions. The Czech L-29 is also capable of

carrying two bombs or four rockets.15-16-17

Due to loopholes in the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR), “an

informal and voluntary association of countries which share the goals of nonproliferation

of unmanned delivery systems capable of delivering weapons of mass destruction and

which seek to coordinate national export licensing efforts aimed at preventing their

proliferation”,18 aerospace companies are able to continue to produce (and market to the

public) flight management systems that are designed to modify small planes into armed

UAVs and autonomously guided air-vehicles, which would use the latest satellite

navigation and Global Positioning System (GPS) technology in an aerial attack.19

One of the alarming threats of a “worst case scenario” of the most concern today

is the release of a biological agent over (or in) a dense civilian population, particularly a

category “A” agent. Pathogens of concern have been assigned, in a prioritization process,

into three categories: “A”, “B”, and “C”. Agents in category “A” are the greatest threat

due to their mass casualties capabilities, wide public health preparedness initiatives

(surveillance, detection etc) needed, their potential for large-scale dissemination as well

(Figure 4, MiG 21)14 War on Terrorism, Unmanned Aerial Vehicles: Iraq’s ‘Secret’ Weapon? (2002). Terrorism Project –Center for Defense Information. Retrieved on March 15, 2009 from: http://www.cdi.org/terrorism/uav-iraz.cfm 15 Gormley et al (2003). Pg 516 Weapons of Mass Destruction: MiG-21/L-29. Retrieved on Feb 24, 2009 from: http://www.globalsecurity.org/wmd/world/iraq/l-29.htm 17 Unmanned (2002). Pg 218 The Missile Technology Control Regime (2008). Retrieved on April 19, 2009 from: http://www.mtcr.info/english/index.html paragraph 1 19 Gormley et al (2003) pg 2

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Source: https://www.fiddlersgreen.net/aircraft/MIG-21/IMAGES/3views-mig-21.gif

(Figure 5, Czech L-29)

Source: http://www.luftfahrtmuseum.com/drwg/s/l29.gif

as their ability to spread, and their ability to cause mass chaos and fear or panic (See chart

1).20

20 Health Assessment (2002). Public Health Assessment of Potential Biological Terrorism Agents. Emerging Infectious Diseases Vol 8, Iss 2, pg 225-230. pg 225-26

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Anthrax is one of the very highest risk agents (being category “A”) currently

known.21 Bacillus Anthracis is the causative agent of anthrax…

“This Gram-positive, spore-forming, capsulated rod survives by killing its primary host-ruminants. Cattle, which graze on spore-infested pastures, become infected and the resulting bacteremia kills the cattle and allows the organism to produce more spores to contaminate more pastures. Humans, unlike cattle, do not die from bacterial infections but are highly sensitive to the toxins these organism produce, which frequently lead to death. Humans are exposed to this organism via inhalation of spores either naturally through handling of soil, carcasses, or skins, or via deliberate terrorists attacks.”22

All that it would take is a 2.265 kg bag (equal to a bag of sugar) of anthrax dispersed over

Washington D.C. to kill half of the city’s citizens, or 9.060 kg sprayed from the back of a

truck in Manhattan could kill almost 2 million people.23 Anthrax is so lethal that it can

remain in soil for decades. Gruinard Island is actually considered “Anthrax Island” due

to its contaminated soil. In the 1940s, the UK used the island for anthrax testing.

Decontamination was attempted by brushfire; however, spores remain embedded in the

soil. There is current concern that birds traveling back and forth from the island to the

mainland could carry the spores thus creating an outbreak.24

Heavy surveillance and detection is needed for preparedness efforts, such as

Table 1. Biological and chemical warfare characteristics

Biological

Chemical

Natural odorless occurrence Obtained synthetically with characteristic

21 Stipp (2001) pg 322 Elzer, P (2004). Zoonotic Bacteria as Biological and Agroterrorist weapons. Medical Aspects of Chemical and Biological Terrorism: Biological Terrorism and Traumatism. Publishing House of the Union of Scientists. Sofia, Bulgaria. Chpt 7, pg 12123 Mathew (2001) pg 39624 Mathew (2001) pg 395

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odor

Invisible particles normally dispersed through aerosol spray

Normally volatile in nature and dispersed either through mists or aerosol sprays

Entry through inhalation or ingestion Entry through inhalation or dermal absorption

Pre-exposure treatment confers or enhances immunity through use of toxoids, vaccines, antibacterial protective clothing, biosensors and smoke-detectors

Pre-exposure treatment relies on use of gas masks, antichemical protective clothing and use of chemosensors for toxic substances

Post-exposure treatment relies on antibiotics or in combination with vaccines

Post-exposure treatment relies on use of antidotes and neutralizing agents

Effects of biological agents and toxins are diverse resulting in incapacitation or death occurring after contraction of disease resulting from infection by a specific biological agent e.g. anthrax caused by Bacillus anthracis and plague caused by Yersinia pestis

Effects of chemical agents are either instantaneous or delayed for a few hours, with the onset of symptoms such as allergy, respiratory discomfort, intense irritation of mucous membranes, malfunctioning of physiological processes, resulting in dose-dependent death or incapacitation

Can be weaponized into artillery rounds, cluster bombs, and missile warheads

Long history of use as poison bombs, in artillery rounds, and in missile warheads

Production methods are simple and cheap relying on non-sophisticated technology and easily obtainable knowledge in biology, genetics engineering, medicine and agriculture

Simple and complex production methods needing appropriate corresponding equipment and technology for simple and sophisticated chemical synthesis, purification and development of lethal doses

Not easily detected in export control and searches by routine detection systems, e.g. X-rays

Detection facilitated through odor escape, and packaging in inert metallic containers showing up on X-ray screens

Source: Dasilva, E. (1999). Biological Warefare, Bioterrorism, Biodefense and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. Journal of Biotechnology Vol 2, Iss 3, pg 113

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advising local enforcement agencies to be aware of suspicious activity involving remote

control planes and educating retail establishments so they can observe and report unusual

purchases. Also monitoring export and import of any types of flight technology as well

as developing new technologies to mine for information through the remains of UAV

equipment that was used in an attack.25 Early detection and warning of incoming attack

UAVs when possible is essential in order to have enough time to react and thus limit the

eminent damage (such as evacuation of target area or shut down of target chemical plant

etc). This early detection could even allow enough time to shoot down the UAV.

“Hardening” of potential targets such as barriers, fencing, and catch nets being put into

place would also help in damage reduction.26

There is new and up-and-coming technology being developed in the bioterrorism

defense realm. A new rub-on polymer cream and anti-germ warfare lotion that protects

against influenza and antibiotics that are being set in textiles as anti-infection agents are

just a few. Also the development of bio-robots and cyber-insects such as cockroach and

ant robots will enhance counter terrorism. These are remote controlled tech-bugs and are

controlled by computerized microchips or biochips and can do DNA processing, blood

screening, and identify infectious disease agents. The Defense Advanced Research

Projects Agency’s (DARPA) robotics program is working on academic research of the

cricket robot bug in which its “bio-mechanized mind” could be used in space exploration

as well as bioterrorism countermeasures.27

Risk analysis or assessment is essential in understanding how to react and respond

to attack disasters and how to follow through with mitigation. As always, information 25 Jackson, B et al (2008) chpt 5, pg 7526 Jackson, B et al (2008) chpt 5 pg 78-8027 DaSilva, E. (1998). Biological Warfare, Bioterrorism, Biodefense and the Biological and Toxin Weapons Convention. Journal of Biotechnology vol 2, Iss 3, pg 99-129, pg 106

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sharing and communications in general are the foremost necessity in effective protections

and appropriate response to different disaster scenarios.28

For biological (or chemical) disasters delivered via aerial dispersion, surveillance,

early warning, and front line responders’ preparedness needs to be practiced and thus

improved through community drills in order to find weaknesses in the current

procedures.29 Other suggestions would be to continue work on developing tools that can

identify agents such as anthrax or small pox in minutes, add to the current National

Stockpile of vaccines and other medications (until there is enough for every person),

continue to develop/train first responders and medical personnel until there is more than

enough to respond and thus recover quickly, and develop blueprints for nation-wide

coordination and uninterruptible communications between Federal, State, and Local

agencies, hospitals, and first responders, including EMS, Fire, and local police officers as

well as the local dispatch centers, which should be key communication hot-spots.30

Finally, it is important that political leaders and the media approach their reactions, while

informing the public of any type of aerial terrorist attack disasters, in the form of down

playing the attack. If the novelty of the attack is stressed, such as “an entirely new threat

using an UAV”, this could create huge panic and chaos where as stressing “our enemies

have been reduced to attacking us with remote control planes” would help in panic

control and under mind the terrorists’ intentions of inducing fear in our nation.31

28 Jackson, J (2008) Terrorist Recruitment, Training, and Counter Terror Mitigation. Research paper. Pg 829 DaSilva, (1999) Pg 10730 Stipp (2001) pg 331 Jackson, B et al (2008) chpt 5, pg 82

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