wk 20091223 en
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UKRAINE,KYIV
+38(044)4905185
EQUITYMARKETSWEEKLY
DECEMBER14 18,2009
Evidently, Rally Wont Be
WorldMarketsTrendremainsup,despitecontinuedvolatility.
Volatile markets and mixed economic and market news did not prevent some
equityandothermarketsfrommovinghigherlastweek.Globalequitymarketshit
newhighs for the year, taking gains to over 20% for the yearandover50%up
fromtheMarchlows.Withinvestorsstillhavinganappetiteforrisk,government
bonds fell back, weighed down by concerns over continued huge government
deficits. Commodities posted mixed performance, with industrial metals hitting
newhighs,butothercommoditiesstruggled toadvance inthe faceofa rally in
theUSdollar.
Headwindstogrowthareclearlypresent...
Wesawclearexamplesoverthepastweekofthefourkeyheadwindstogrowth
thatwehaveregularlyhighlightedthisyear.Theproblemofexcessgovernment
debtwasexemplifiedbyGreece,whosesovereigndebt isestimatedtobe113%
ofGDPandwherethecredit ratingwasdowngradedanotchtoBBB+ (fromA)
and left on negative outlook by Standards & Poors. Excess consumer debt
problemswereseenintheUK,whereconsumercreditisaround100%ofGDP,as
retail sales in November unexpectedly fell back by 0.3%. Damaged banking
systems,asintheUKwherebanklendingtobusinessesfellby7.6%overtheyear,
are constraining the availability of new credit required to fund recovery and
expansion. The negative consequences of new regulation were seen in the
reaction to the new Basel Three proposals to require increased bank capital.
Suchregulationcouldwellpreventfuturecrises,butwillbeaconstraintonshort
term growth. Japanese bankshare prices surgedby up to14% on a newspaper
report that implementation would besignificantly delayed before falling back
whenthereportwasdenied.
...requiringfurtherstimulustoensurethatgrowthissustained.
While the Federal Reservestatementnoted thatthe deterioration in the labor
marketisabating,webelievethattheseheadwindstogrowth,describedabove,
meanthatcontinuedfiscalandmonetarysupportarerequiredtohelpguarantee
furthergrowth.IntheUS,thepassageofanew$155bnstimulusbillis intended
toboostemployment.
But the fact that economic recovery continues in the face of these obstacles,
underpinsincreasingconfidenceintheoutlookfor2010.
The Feds statement that economic activity had continued to increase gave
investorsconfidencethattheunderlyingtrend,beneaththeconflictingheadlines,
is of a sustained economic recovery. The Fed also announced that many of its
unconventional measures, including quantitative easing, would start to be
unwoundinthefirsthalfoftheyear.Thismoveeffectivelywithdrawssomeofthe
monetarystimulusfromthemarketandmaymeanthatratehikeswillbedelayedlongerthancurrentlyexpected.
Dollarrally,butpressureremainsforemergingmarketcurrenciestoappreciate.
Whilethecorrelationisnormallyforastrongerdollartoequalweakercommodity
prices,thiswasnotthecasethisweek,asthecauseofthestrongdollarwasthe
betterUSeconomicoutlook.So,whilegold fellback, industrial metalssawnew
highs. But the rise of the dollar provides little help for emerging economies
threatenedbyinflation.WithIndiareportingfoodpricesup16.7%,inflationisset
tobreachthe6.5%overalltargetnextyear.Thereturnof inflation inChinaalso
promptedconcernsthatthegovernmentwillseektostifleoverheating, leading
to a selloff in property shares. One potential part of the solution for these
countries inflationproblems iscurrencyappreciation,whichis likelytobeakey
issuefornextyear.
WorldEquityIndices
PFTSBasketIndex Country WOW,% MTD,% YTD,%DowJonesIndus. USA 17,69
S&P500 USA 0,62 22,06
NasdaqComp USA 0,98 3,13 40,24
DAX30 Germany 1,30 3,65 21,23
FTSE100 GreatBritain 0,12 17,20
NIKKEI225 Japan 0,34 8,52 14,48
RTS Russia 3, 21 2 ,5 7 123, 17
WSEWIG Poland 44,70
PragueStockEx. CzechRepublic 29,18
PFTS Ukraine 94,61
1,36 0,15
0,36
1,23
0,16 0,46
0,13 0,71
2,71 1,34
Commodities
WTD,% MTD,% YTD,%
Gold 0,35 4,99
5,07
1,90 4,26
26,49
BrentCrude
Oil 4,99 23,27
EUR/USD 2,62
CurrencyMarket
750
775
800
825
850
875
900
08.31.09
09.14.09
09.28.09
10.12.09
10.26.09
11.09.09
11.23.09
12.07.09
UAH/100USD
OfficialexchangerateInterbank(bid)Interbank(ask)
UXIndexVSTradeVolumes
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
02.04.20
09
22.04.20
09
14.05.20
09
02.06.20
09
22.06.20
09
10.07.20
09
29.07.20
09
17.08.20
09
04.09.20
09
23.09.20
09
12.10.20
09
29.10.20
09
17.11.20
09
04.12.20
09
Volume,mln
0
225
450
675
900
1125
1350
1575
1800UX
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UKRAINE,KYIV
+38(044)4905185
EQUITYMARKETSWEEKLY
DECEMBER14 18,2009
Ticker
Average
price,UAH WOW,% MTD,% YTD
ZAEN 356,50 2,15
UNAF 176,67 2,54 5,75 57,74
CEEN 10,33 3,26 101,82
UTLM 0,45 2,95 62,43
MMKI 2,38 8,85 150,18
MSICH 1685,33 5,43 355,50
BAVL 0,25 0,08 6,47
NITR 11,56 46,64
DNEN 670,78 41,71
SMASH 58,00 0,00 24,91 285,81
USCB 0,36 63,53
DOEN 57,49 103,61
AZST 2,70 5,00 214,84
STIR 50,97 3 ,3 1 14,88 63,01
ENMZ 171,12 6,39 224,92
PGOK 26,67 127,34
KVBZ 17,75 3,50 108,01ALMK 0,14 13,84 72,68
MZVM 27,50 7,84 102,75
AVDK 10,94 134,93
,%
3,63 8,35
0,64
5,09
3,65
4,98
2,45
2,80 1,42
3,02 34,88
3,81 2,05
8,21 11,25
0,93
1,46
4,48 5,10
0,561,26
1,59
1,06 1,32
UkrainianMarketLastweekUXindexshowedregulardecrease,fallingby2.86%to1487.83
points(volumeblewoffto$10.89mln),PFTSindexby2.71%to586.58
points.
The US dollar was strengthened by investors fixed their positions and
carry went away from markets (Asia markets indicated). Besides, US
labourmarket,housingmarketandeconomicimprovement(USindustrial
production +0.8%) also made US dollar to consolidate. As a result, we
couldseecorrectiononcommoditymarkets.
IncontrasttoUSAUkrainian industrialproduction(IP)fellby1.9%m/m.
State Statistic Committee of Ukraine noted IP decrease in November is
seasonalduetoshorteninginproductionoffoodstuff,buildingmaterials
andinmachineryandequipmentmanufacture.
TheGovernment isgoing tocancel thebenefits tometallurgy inMarch
2010. Since the 1st of March 2010 everyone should pay fair market
prices, saidprimeministerTymoshenkoonGovernmentsmeetingon
Tuesday. Earlier, government promised to support the mining and
smeltingindustrytillthe1stquarter2010,soitcouldbenegativesignfor
metallurgistsandminingcompanies.
OtherdisappointingnewswasGazpromsforecasttowardsgaspricesfor
Ukraine inthe1stquarter2010$300310per1thousandcubicmetres
against$280ourofficialspreviousestimates.
Lastweek,wealsohadregularfinancialresultsoftheUkrainianbanking
system. Net loss was $3.45 billion in JanuaryNovember 2009. At the
sametimeNovembernet losswas$0.51billion.Net incomewas$16.43
billion (+24.6% m/m) and expenses $19.89 billion (+62.1% m/m). The
largestpartoftheexpenseswasoccupiedbyreservestheywidened3.6
times to $8 billion (40% of total expenses). As the bankers said before
they would continue to increase reserves till the end of the year. The
newsismoderatelynegative.
Allthebest!
Mostliquidshares
TopGainers,Losers,MostActivelyTraded
TopGainers
9,4%
6,0%
6,0%
3,8%
1,7%
FORM
HRTR
SGOK
ALMK
YASK
TopLosers
7,7%
5,2%
6,8%
6,3%
5,4%
MSICH
PGOK
AVDK
DOEN
UTLM
MostActivelyTraded
8112,6
4524,9
4346,7
3677,5
9141,9AZST
ENMZ
MSICH
AVDK
UNAF
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected]:[email protected] -
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
WeeklyForecasts
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly December14 18,2009
0,02,55,07,5
10,0
12,515,017,520,022,525,027,530,032,535,037,540,042,545,047,550,052,555,0
57,560,062,565,067,570,072,575,077,580,082,585,087,590,092,595,097,5
100,0
21.0
8.
2009
25.0
8.
2009
26.0
8.
2009
27.0
8.
2009
28.0
8.
2009
31.0
8.
2009
01.09.
2009
02.
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Volume,mln
8008208408608809009209409609801000102010401060108011001120114011601180120012201240126012801300
13201340136013801400142014401460148015001520154015601580160016201640166016801700
UXIndex
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WWW.ARTCAPITAL.COM.UA
WorldIndicesDynamic
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly December14 18,2009
DevelopedMarketEquities 5Days,% 1Month,% 3Month,% 6Month,% 9Month,% 1Year,%
WorldMarket
Capitalization
1,30
0,22
0,26
0,02
0,49
0,43
1,80
3,07 6,71 3,47
2,73 0,84
2,30 2,88 1,03
4,61 6,46
1,84 2,47 1,69
1,20 4,34
0,74 3,52 0,93
0,77
1,63 0,77
0,86
0,48 3,56 4,63
3,18 7,36
4,13 1,15
3,93 0,61
0,49
2,79 5,32
1,61 0,93 3,69 4,79 3,91
0,31 2,95
1,69 2,54
4,96
1,38 3,53 3,00
2,30 24,76 48,19 45,96DowJonesIndus. USA 0,93 5,94 25,47 31,42 22,75
S&P500 USA 0,44 2,08 3,96 23,65 33,76 28,14
NasdaqComp USA 1,39 4,27 4,26 24,85 41,00 48,16
DJEuroStoxx50 Europe 3,28 1,54 20,99 35,66 22,52
FTSE100 GreatBritain 0,81 2,94 23,69 34,87 22,56
DAX30 Germany 0,46 4,72 3,87 22,63 39,23 26,05
SwissMarketIndex Switzerland 3,62 2,58 19,49 30,96 19,02
Nikkei225 Japan 0,06 7,22 6,18 17,91 16,42
HangSeng HongKong 17,08 48,47 46,20
EmergingMarketEquities
MSCIEmergingMarketIndex($) 2,62 29,12 52,81 67,96
S&PAsia50 Asia 22,10 43,03 51,56
CSI300 China 8,48 8,84 36,97 83,13
SENSEX India 15,10 65,96 74,14
KOSPI SouthKorea 1,46 20,56 32,19 47,12
TAIEX Taiwan 0,46 1,36 4,26 22,06 44,57 76,34
NewEuropeBlueChip() Europe 24,93 47,40 32,12
MICEX Russia 3,28 14,55 39,91 62,20 124,50RTS Russia 14,11 48,61 89,40 121,75
WIG Poland 0,02 3,57 30,70 55,92 46,09
PragueStockEx. Czechia 22,59 36,81 27,84
PFTS Ukraine 15,20 42,58 164,08 92,02
S&PLatinAmerica40($) SouthAmerica 9,54 39,28 70,09 92,75
BOVESPA Brazil 7,21 32,72 54,80 77,89
BOLSA Mexico 3,69 7,74 34,11 54,80 42,01
Bonds
USATreasuries USA 0,00 0,00 0,00 3,09
EMUBonds Europe 1,41 1,00 3,63 8,74 8,32 4,95
UKGilts GreatBritain 0,04
UABonds Ukraine 6,27 13,83 75,67 102,54
Commodities
Gold 9,87 19,63 18,79 27,18
Oil(Brent) 0,05 1,76 2,93 18,35 35,46
Currency
EUR/USD 2,52 5,91 1,17
USA Euroarea Japan China Germany Britain Brazil Poland Czechia Russia Ukraine
S&P500 DJEuroStoxx50 Nik kei225 CSI300 DAX30 FTSE100 BOVESPA WIG PragueSE MICEX PFTS
Changefrom52whigh,% 0,20 0,07 3,61 12,27 0,07 0,62 3,39 3,08 6,89 3,23 13,36Changefrom52wlow,% 67,67 67,96 47,81 83,96 66,74 54,98 88,73 94,66 83,44 154,41 187,93
Priceearningsratio,P/E 24,30 22,71 n/a 27,18 61,91 60,00 20,42 n/a 30,04 17,71 122,92Pricesalesratio,P/S 1,24 0,77 0,66 2,44 0,66 1,20 1,73 0,90 1,57 1,39 0,66Pricebookratio,P/BV 2,24 1,43 1,39 3,15 1,54 1,97 2,06 1,48 1,43 1,24 1,21
Dividentyields12M,% 2,13 3,85 1,57 1,41 3,49 3,49 3,12 2,22 5,29 1,53 0,79
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Quotations
ARTCAPITAL EquityMarketsWeekly December14 18,2009
Bid Ask Close WOW,% MTD,% YTD,% P/E EV/EBITDA EV/S
UNAF Ukrnafta 165,0 195,0 170,0 176,7 2,54 5,75 57,74 209,0 10,8 1,0UTLM Ukrtelecom 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 5,09
2,45
3,81 2,05
0,64
3,02 34,88
8,21 11,25
3,63 8,35
4,20
6,31 10,65
7,66 7,66
8,02 3,47
0,93
1,26
18,04 2,45
21,88 23,31
19,08
1,46
6,87
3,65
29,06 26,85
26,67 24,38
28,90 26,68
4,48 5,10
1,27
3,22 3,22
1,06 1,32
3,29
51,69 58,70
4,08 11,82
3,85 3,85
2,00 2,00 45,25
5,95
0,56
4,98
10,59
4,98
1,59
14,21 14,21
8,72
4,31
6,44 6,84
39,66
4,95 1,09
11,83 1,72 15,93
2,95 62,43 38,5 7,7 1,5
Banks
BAVL RaiffeizenBankAval 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,3 0,08 16,04 4,3 n/a 2,4
FORM BankForum 6,5 5,3 6,5 6,1 1,51 3,23 13,04 5,8 n/a 4,4
USCB Ukrsotsbank 0,4 0,4 0,4 0,4 63,53 16,2 n/a n/a
RODB RodovidBank 50,0 4000,0 170,0 1406,7 0,00 0,00 240,05 1,9 n/a n/a
Electricitygeneration
CEEN Centerenergo 11,5 9,7 9,8 10,3 3,26 101,82 47,3 34,3 1,1
DNEN Dniproenergo 670,7 670,7 670,9 670,8 41,71 80,0 45,0 1,3
DOEN Donbasenergo 61,5 50,5 60,5 57,5 103,61 30,8 239,7 0,8
ZAEN Zakhidenergo 334,5 400,0 335,0 356,5 2,15 105,0 1445,1 1,1
Electricitydistribution
DNON Dniprooblenergo 200,0 500,0 440,0 380,0 0,00 167,61 33,0 n/a 0,2HAON Kharkivoblenergo 4,5 1,9 3,3 3,2 91,85 n/a n/a 0,2
KIEN Kievenergo 12,0 11,5 12,7 12,1 45,12 14,1 n/a 0,4
KREN Krymenergo 4,1 2,2 3,5 3,3 87,50 12,1 n/a 0,4
Steel
AZST Azovstal 2,7 2,7 2,7 2,7 5,0 0 2 14, 84 22,8 6,6 1,5
ALMK AlchevskIron&Steel 0,1 0,1 0,1 0,1 13,84 72,68 18,6 12,1 0,4
DMKD DMKDzerzhynskogo 0,6 0,4 0,6 0,5 89,29 2,1 n/a 1,3
DMZP DMPPetrovskogo 0,4 0,4 0,5 0,4 35,87 n/a n/a 0,4
DNSS Dniprospetsstal 2450,0 1600,0 2100,0 2050,0 0,00 4,95 57,2 14,0 1,0
ENMZ EnakievoSteel 171,5 171,0 170,9 171,1 6,3 9 2 24, 92 10,3 24,9 0,1
KSTL MittalSteelKriviyRigh 10,8 9,9 11,2 10,6 5,64 13,75 32,0 15,6 1,9
MMKI Ma riupolIllychIron&Steel 2,5 2,1 2,5 2,4 8,85 150,18 211,7 26,4 0,1
Tubes
D TRZ D ni pr ope tro vs kTW 180,0 110,0 110,0 133,3 15,94 0,00 63,27 n/a n/a n/a
HRTR Kha rtsyzskTW 1,7 195,0 170,0 122,2 9,12 209,0 10,8 1,0
NITR NizhnyodneprovskyTubes 14,0 195,0 170,0 126,3 12,80 209,0 10,8 1,0
NV TR No vom os ko vs kTubes 2,5 195,0 170,0 122,5 9,38 209,0 10,8 1,0
Ironore
CGOK CentralMining 7,0 2,2 3,2 4,1 0,00 0,00 83,85 n/a n/a 3,9
PGOK PoltavaMining 25,0 27,5 27,5 26,7 127,34 13,3 6,1 0,7
PGZK PivdennyMining 7,0 8,3 8,0 7,8 0,00 0,00 6,0 n/a 3,6
S GOK PivnichnyMining 3,6 3,9 3,7 3,7 72,56 n/a n/a 6,5
Coke
AVDK AvdeevkaCoke 11,0 10,9 11,0 10,9 134,93 333,9 5,0 0,1
ALKZ AlchevskCoke 0,8 0,2 0,5 0,5 13,95 133,33 21,7 7,9 1,1
BKOK Bagliykoks 0,9 0,4 0,9 0,7 4,76 0,00 54,39 n/a n/a n/a
ZACO ZaporizhyaCoke 2,0 0,5 0,4 1,0 0,35 3,6 0,1 0,0
YASK YasinovkaCoke 3,1 3,4 3,4 3,3 0,20 11,92 321,37 6,7 3,9 0,0
Engineering
AVTO Ukravto 178,0 100,0 192,0 156,7 146,23 n/a n/a 0,3
AZGM Azovzagalmash 25,0 10,0 15,0 16,7 158,40 23,8 43,0 0,4
DGRM Donetskgormash 0,4 0,3 0,3 0,3 n/a n/a 0,9
HMBZ SvitloShahtarya 0,9 0,3 0,5 0,5 17,04 54,90 n/a n/a 2,1
KVBZ KriukovCarBuilding 18,0 17,5 17,8 17,8 3,5 0 1 08, 01 27,3 37,4 0,3
LTPL Luganskteplovoz 3,7 2,5 2,9 3,1 9,57 107,24 414,3 34,6 0,4
LUAZ LUAZ 0,3 0,2 0,3 0,3 5,56 72,73 2,3 35,9 0,8
MSICH MotorSich 1700,0 1676,0 1680,0 1685,3 5,4 3 3 55, 50 11,0 3,8 n/a
MZVM MariupolHeavyEngineering 33,0 23,0 26,5 27,5 7,84 102,75 108,7 17,3 0,3
SMASH SumyFrunzeMachinery 56,0 61,0 57,0 58,0 0,00 24,91 285,81 12,0 7,6 0,9
SNEM Nasosenergomash 2,0 2,3 3,9 2,7 185,96 n/a n/a 1,2
S VGZ S takhanovskCarBuilding 2,9 2,7 2,8 2,8 0,96 5,01 97,18 81,3 23,3 0,3
Others
DNSH Dniproshina 38,0 8,0 17,0 21,00,00 10,53
n/a 12,6 0,9KFTP KriukovkaCellulose&Paper 46,0 30,0 35,0 37,0 0,00 192,11 8,2 2,4 0,4
MTBD Mostobud 390,0 330,0 370,0 363,3 52,45 190,7 n/a 0,3
NORD Nord 100,0 20,0 90,0 70,0 0,00 0,00 n/a n/a 0,6
SHCHZ MineKrasnoarmeyskaya 4,4 4,6 4,6 4,5 121,63 20,3 5,2 7,2
SHKD MineKomsomoletsDonbasa 4,2 7,5 6,3 6,0 5,88 6,38 55,98 46,4 11,6 6,0
STIR Stirol 48,0 52,3 52,6 51,0 3,31 14,88 63,01 32,1 19,1 0,1
ZABR Zaporiz hyaAbrasives 1,0 1,4 1,1 1,1 1,4 n/a 1,2
ZALK ZaporizhyaAlluminum 0,3 0,9 0,3 0,5 0,00 0,00 30,67 n/a n/a 1,1
ZFER ZaporizhyaFerroalloys 0,2 1,8 0,9 0,9 0,00 0,00 6,06 22,5 n/a 2,3
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