with support from the bill & melinda gates foundation 10 unemployment rate (%) hs dropout hs...
TRANSCRIPT
With support from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
The Graduation Project
�� New annual report from New annual report from
Education Week Education Week and the and the
EPE Research CenterEPE Research Center
�� Original analysis of graduation Original analysis of graduation
rates nationwiderates nationwide
�� Roadmap for state policies on Roadmap for state policies on
graduationgraduation
�� Powerful online data mappingPowerful online data mapping
Diplomas CountDiplomas Count
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Dropouts at Great Risk in Adult World
�� General agreement on benefits of a General agreement on benefits of a high school educationhigh school education
�� Compared to graduates, high school Compared to graduates, high school DropoutsDropouts::�� Are more likely to be Are more likely to be unemployedunemployed
�� Earn Earn lower wageslower wages
�� Have higher rates of Have higher rates of public assistancepublic assistance
�� Are more likely to be Are more likely to be single parentssingle parents
�� Have Have children at a younger agechildren at a younger age
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Employment Rate
�� High School High School DropoutsDropouts are are LESS LESS likely to be likely to be EMPLOYED EMPLOYED than graduatesthan graduates
42
60
7076
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College College Graduate
Employment Rate (March 2006)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Unemployment Rate
�� High School High School DropoutsDropouts are are MOREMORE likely to be likely to be UNEMPLOYEDUNEMPLOYED than graduatesthan graduates
8
54
2
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t R
ate
(%
)
HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College College Graduate
Unemployment Rate (March 2006)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Earning Power
�� High School High School Dropouts EARN LESS Dropouts EARN LESS than graduatesthan graduates
$18,085
$26,104
$30,610
$47,317
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
Med
ian
Earn
ing
s (
$)
HS Dropout HS Graduate Some College College Graduate
Median Earnings (2004)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Economic Impact over a Lifetime
�� Compared to a graduate, a single Compared to a graduate, a single 1818--yearyear--old dropout:old dropout:
�� Earns Earns $260,000$260,000 less over a lifetimeless over a lifetime
�� Contributes Contributes $60,000$60,000 less in federal and state less in federal and state income taxesincome taxes
�� Combined income and tax losses for one Combined income and tax losses for one cohort of 18cohort of 18--yearyear--olds who drop out:olds who drop out:
�� $192 billion$192 billion
�� 1.6 percent1.6 percent of gross domestic productof gross domestic product
SOURCE: Cecilia Rouse, economist, Princeton UniversitySOURCE: Cecilia Rouse, economist, Princeton University
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Graduation in an era of Accountability
�� No Child Left Behind (NCLB)No Child Left Behind (NCLB)�� Federal law signed January 2002Federal law signed January 2002
�� PerformancePerformance--based accountability with focus on based accountability with focus on test scorestest scores
�� NCLB NCLB alsoalso holds schools accountable for holds schools accountable for graduation rates graduation rates �� Graduation part of adequate yearly progress (AYP)Graduation part of adequate yearly progress (AYP)
�� Why have graduation accountability in the law?Why have graduation accountability in the law?�� To safeguard against To safeguard against ""pushpush--out out ""
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Some Good News
�� We are getting better at identifying We are getting better at identifying
students at risk of dropping outstudents at risk of dropping out
�� Promising intervention strategies for Promising intervention strategies for
combating the crisiscombating the crisis
�� Active policy leadershipActive policy leadership
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Giving Voice to a Crisis
“People think we’re ignorant. A lot of us already know what we want, but people aren’t showing us the right path to help us get there. We ask and ask, and when people don’t show you, you stop asking.”
Sa’Brina Reeves, 16,Indianapolis, Ind.
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Discovering the Graduation Crisis
Report Disputes U.S. High School Graduation Rates
Worst Rates of Graduation Are in New York,
Study Says
Minority graduation rate lags, study says
Study: Graduate rate is inflated, School districts find a loophole
Study shows racial divide in graduation
Chicago Works to Keep Teens in School Would-be dropouts and their parents must sign
a waiver warning of the decision's consequences.
Minority high school graduation rate just 50
Study finds low local graduation figure
Jefferson school officials dispute accuracy of report
Official high school dropout rates misrep
study says
Disparities in grad rates high in state, Connecticut is among 10 states with the worst racial disparities in high school graduation rates
United Press International
Graduation rates subject to doubt
Minorities' graduation rates low,
report says
Study: Colo. lags in minority grad rate
State officials say report's figures off
When Jose fails TAKS, has HISD failed him?
Low Graduation Rate Reported
Report Finds Only One Half Of Minority High School
Students Graduate In Four Years...
US black pupils still missing out. Only half of black
high school students in the United States are
graduating - says a report.
Who is, isn't being fitted for high school cap, gown
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Say it ain’t so ...
�� Is it possible that we do not know what Is it possible that we do not know what the graduation rate is?the graduation rate is?
�� Consider this Consider this ……�� Until Until this past Octoberthis past October, the U.S. Department of , the U.S. Department of
Education Education did notdid not report an annual public school report an annual public school graduation rate for the graduation rate for the nationnation
�� and this and this ……�� Before 2002, 8 Before 2002, 8 statesstates based rewards/sanctions based rewards/sanctions
on graduation rateson graduation rates
�� Only 1 state reported subgroup graduation rates Only 1 state reported subgroup graduation rates in school report cardsin school report cards
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Asking the Obvious Question
Do we have a problem with graduation rates?
(At least, is it big enough that we need to do something about it?)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Is there a problem with graduation rates?
�� Answer 1: NOAnswer 1: NO
�� Graduation rates are high and stable Graduation rates are high and stable -- probably canprobably can’’t go much highert go much higher
High School Completion Rate by Year (CPS)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Co
mp
leti
on
Ra
te (
%)
Total
85.8%
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Is there a problem?
�� Answer 2: MAYBEAnswer 2: MAYBE
�� Graduation rates high BUT there are large disparities among grouGraduation rates high BUT there are large disparities among groupsps
High School Completion Rate by Year
for Major Racial-Ethnic Groups (CPS)
0
20
40
60
80
100
1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Year
Co
mp
leti
on
Ra
te (
%)
White
Total
Black
Hispanic
92.1%
84.0%
70.1%
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Is there a problem?
�� Answer 3: YESAnswer 3: YES
�� Why?Why?�� Graduation rates Graduation rates
are actually much are actually much lower than lower than supposedsupposed
�� RacialRacial--Ethnic gaps Ethnic gaps are largeare large
�� Sizeable and very Sizeable and very consistent gender consistent gender gap gap
�� Large differences Large differences across states and across states and different kinds of different kinds of districtsdistricts
87.5
69.6
92.2
76.2
85.4
51.6
69.6
55.6
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
All
Students
White Black Hispanic
Current Population Survey (CPS) Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)
Gra
du
ati
on
Rate
(%
)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Navigating the Maze
�� Multiple sources of information about high school Multiple sources of information about high school completioncompletion
�� Statistics in current circulation mostly come from Statistics in current circulation mostly come from ……�� Common Core of Data (CCD) Common Core of Data (CCD) -- U.S. Department of EducationU.S. Department of Education
�� Current Population Survey (CPS) Current Population Survey (CPS) -- BLS, Dept. Labor, CensusBLS, Dept. Labor, Census
�� State Reported Statistics State Reported Statistics -- State Education Agencies NationalState Education Agencies National
�� Longitudinal Studies Longitudinal Studies -- U.S. Department of EducationU.S. Department of Education
�� No one data source is perfect. Different data sourcesNo one data source is perfect. Different data sources……�� Ask/answer different questionsAsk/answer different questions
�� Uncritical eyes don't see same things in the dataUncritical eyes don't see same things in the data�� Can't tell the apples from the orangesCan't tell the apples from the oranges
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Pros and Cons of the Common Core
�� Common Core of Data (CCD)Common Core of Data (CCD)�� U.S. Dept of Education (ED)U.S. Dept of Education (ED)
�� Advantages of the CCDAdvantages of the CCD
�� AnnualAnnual censuscensus of all public schools and districtsof all public schools and districts
�� Uniform definitions Uniform definitions for data across statesfor data across states
�� Distinguishes completion type Distinguishes completion type (diploma vs. other)(diploma vs. other)
�� Administrative dataAdministrative data (not self(not self--reported)reported)
�� Local rates Local rates can be calculated (down to district level)can be calculated (down to district level)
�� Disaggregate ratesDisaggregate rates for demographic groupsfor demographic groups
�� Limitations of the CCDLimitations of the CCD
�� Missing pieces of data we would like to haveMissing pieces of data we would like to have
�� Grade retentionGrade retention
�� Mobility/transferMobility/transfer
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
The CPS (a.k.a. "the Conventional Wisdom")
�� Current Population Survey (CPS)Current Population Survey (CPS)
�� Census/Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)/U.S. Dept of Education (Census/Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS)/U.S. Dept of Education (ED)ED)
�� Advantages of the CPSAdvantages of the CPS
�� Authoritative source of Authoritative source of economic economic indicators indicators
�� LongLong--standing source of data on standing source of data on adultadult educational attainmenteducational attainment
�� Some Limitations of the CPSSome Limitations of the CPS
�� Sample survey Sample survey (of adult non(of adult non--institutionalized population)institutionalized population)
�� Coverage problems Coverage problems for some populations (e.g., incarcerated, transient)for some populations (e.g., incarcerated, transient)
�� SelfSelf--report or secondreport or second--hand information hand information on high school completionon high school completion
�� Cannot reliably distinguish completion type Cannot reliably distinguish completion type (e.g., diploma vs. GED)(e.g., diploma vs. GED)
�� No local estimates No local estimates below state levelbelow state level
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
State-Reported Statistics
�� State Education AgenciesState Education Agencies
�� 50 states plus District of Columbia50 states plus District of Columbia
�� Report graduation rates for NCLB Report graduation rates for NCLB andand other purposesother purposes
�� The ProsThe Pros
�� TimelyTimely -- available before other sourcesavailable before other sources
�� Local Local -- generated down to school levelgenerated down to school level
�� Relevant Relevant -- used for accountability purposesused for accountability purposes
�� The ConsThe Cons
�� Not comparable Not comparable from statefrom state--toto--statestate
�� Most states use dropout data Most states use dropout data to estimate graduation rateto estimate graduation rate
�� Detailed data Detailed data not publicly availablenot publicly available
�� Other concerns Other concerns about state practicesabout state practices
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Mapping Out State Formulas
Calculation Formula
Leaver Rate (33)
Cohort - State (6)
Cohort- Local (4)
Persistence (3)
Completion (2)
Dropout (1)
On-time Rate (1)
Composite Rate (1)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Eye of the Beholder
�� StateState--reported graduates consistently higher than independent researchreported graduates consistently higher than independent research
26
2322
22
2019 19
1817
16 1615
14 14 1312 12 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7
5 43 3 3 3
-2
31
32
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Perc
en
tag
e P
oin
t D
iffe
ren
ce
Difference between State-Reported Rates and CPI Value
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Understanding the Problem
A Road Map to the A Road Map to the Graduation CrisisGraduation Crisis
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
A Brief Detour, before hitting the road
�� How do we calculate graduation rates?How do we calculate graduation rates?
�� Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)Cumulative Promotion Index (CPI)
�� Follow stepFollow step--byby--step progress through high schoolstep progress through high school
�� Only standard diplomas countOnly standard diplomas count
�� Data fromData from
�� Common Core of Data (CCD) 2002Common Core of Data (CCD) 2002--0303
�� Calculate rates for every district in the countryCalculate rates for every district in the country
�� The formula (nonThe formula (non--technical version)technical version)
12th graders 200211th graders 200210th graders 20029th graders 2002
Diplomas 2002X
12th graders 2003X
11th graders 2003X
10th graders 2003CPI =
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Three in 10 students do not receive diploma
�� National graduation rate:National graduation rate:
�� Q: Where are students Q: Where are students lost from the high school lost from the high school pipeline?pipeline?
�� A: The A: The CPICPI can tell you.can tell you.
69.6%for all students
100
8981
7570
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
9th grade 10th grade 11th grade 12th grade Graduation
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
9th Grade Greatest Source of Loss
�� Where are students lost Where are students lost from the high school from the high school pipeline? pipeline?
�� Over oneOver one--third third of the loss of the loss
happens in the transition happens in the transition
from 9th to10th grade. from 9th to10th grade.
�� In In most statesmost states 9th grade 9th grade
is greatest source of lossis greatest source of loss
�� Disadvantaged districts Disadvantaged districts
have more severe have more severe
freshman lossfreshman loss
11th grade
20%
9th grade
35%
12th grade
17%
10th grade
28%
Percent of loss
by grade
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
69.6
47.451.6
55.6
76.2 77.0
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AllStudents
AmericanIndian
Black Hispanic White Asian
National Graduation Rates 2002-03
Gra
du
ati
on
Rate
(%
)
Large Racial Disparities�� Historically disadvantaged minorities much less likely to graduaHistorically disadvantaged minorities much less likely to graduatete
�� 25 percentage point gap between Blacks and Whites25 percentage point gap between Blacks and Whites
25% gap
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
The Gender Gap�� Male students less likely to graduate Male students less likely to graduate -- 8% gap nationally8% gap nationally
�� Female advantage seen across all racialFemale advantage seen across all racial--ethnic groupsethnic groups
65
73
4348
44
58
50
60
7278
7380
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
All Students American
Indian
Black Hispanic White Asian
National Graduation Rates 2002-03
Male Female
Gra
du
ati
on
Rate
(%
)
8% gap
5%
14%
10%
6%
7%
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
69.6
60.0
74.470.5
73.1
56.2
75.1
54.9
74.3
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AllDistricts
Urban Suburban Town Rural High Low HIgh Low
Gra
du
ati
on
Rate
(%
)
Local Context Matters�� Graduation rates much lower for all students in urban, impoverisGraduation rates much lower for all students in urban, impoverished, hed,
and segregated communitiesand segregated communities
Racial Segregation Economic Segregation
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Mapping Out Graduation Rates
Graduation Rate2002-03
> 75% (15)
70-75% (17)
60-70% (13)
< 60% (6)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
REALLY Mapping Out Graduation Rates
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Around the Beltway
DC
Balt
Montgomery
PrinceGeorges
Loudon
FairfaxArl.
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Chicagoland
Chicago Public Schools
Evanston
HammondEast Chicago
Gary
New Trier
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
The City So Nice … NY, NY
New York City Public Schools
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
The Deep South
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
State Policy Roadmap
Diplomas Count Diplomas Count examines policies related to examines policies related to
high school graduationhigh school graduation
�� CoursetakingCoursetaking and credits for standard diploma and credits for standard diploma
�� State exit exams State exit exams
�� High school credentials offered by stateHigh school credentials offered by state
�� Compulsory age for attending public schoolCompulsory age for attending public school
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Counting Credits
�� Average state requires 20.5 credits for standard diplomaAverage state requires 20.5 credits for standard diploma�� Typically: 4 in English, 3 each in Math, Science, Social StudiesTypically: 4 in English, 3 each in Math, Science, Social Studies
Total Credits for Standard Diploma
> 22 credits (9)
21-22 credits (18)
17-20 credits (11)
< 17 credits (6)
Local or other (7)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
How Many "Diplomas"
�� Most states offer multiple high school credential optionsMost states offer multiple high school credential options�� 26 states have alternative credentials for less than standard re26 states have alternative credentials for less than standard requirementsquirements
High School Credentials
Standard diplomas only (18)
Advanced recognition (7)
Alternative credential (9)
Advanced & Alternative (17)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Testing Out
�� Close to half of states (23) require the Class of 2005Close to half of states (23) require the Class of 2005--06 to 06 to pass an exit exam to receive a standard diplomapass an exit exam to receive a standard diploma
High School Exit Examfor Class of 2005-06
Yes (23)
No (28)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Testing Trends
�� Since 2002, more states have established exit exams and Since 2002, more states have established exit exams and more of those tests are based on 10th grade standardsmore of those tests are based on 10th grade standards
17
23
6
18
1012
0
5
10
15
20
25
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Nu
mb
er
of
sta
tes
State requires exit exam
Exam based on 10th grade standards
State funds remediation
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Aging Out
�� Compulsory attendance age ranges from 16 to 18 years oldCompulsory attendance age ranges from 16 to 18 years old�� Students can leave school at 16 in almost half of statesStudents can leave school at 16 in almost half of states
Compulsory Attendance Agefor Public School
16 years old (23)
17 years old (10)
18 years old (18)
D I P L O M A S C O U N T 2 0 0 6
Online Extras
� Diplomas Count online atwww.edweek.org/dc06
� State Graduation Briefs www.edweek.org/dc06/SGB
� Get Maps Now!www.edweek.org/dc06/maps
� Coming Soon!� Download a special report
for your district
� Interactive power mapping