with forecasts, scenarios and wildcards · 2. de-christianization of the west, also revitalization...

Dr. Jay GaryAssistant Professor of Global Leadership

Program Director of Master of Strategic Foresight

Terra Nova: M i th F t f Ch i ti it

Terra Nova: M i th F t f Ch i ti itMapping the Future of Christianity

with Forecasts, Scenarios and WildcardsMapping the Future of Christianity

with Forecasts, Scenarios and Wildcards

http://www.regent.edu/global

Email: [email protected]

Download at: http://jaygary.com/TH850.pdf

Future of ChristianityFuture of Christianity

STH TH 850 Comparative Christianity BU, Boston, Dec 8, 2010

Looking ForwardLooking ForwardLooking ForwardLooking Forward

Christian Leadership to Change the World

M.B.A.

C st a eade s p to C a ge t e o d

Regent university

Regent university

M.A. in Organizational Leadership

M.A. in Strategic ForesightM.A. in Strategic Foresight

Doctor in Strategic Leadership

PhD in Organizational LeadershipPhD in Organizational Leadership

MSF – mapMSF – map

Master of Arts in Strategic Foresight

Horizons of the FutureHorizons of the Future

Horizons of the Future• Immediate future (1 yr.)• Near-term future (1 - 5 yrs )• Near-term future (1 - 5 yrs.)• Middle-range future (5 - 30 yrs.)• Long-range future (30 - 100 yrs )Long range future (30 100 yrs.)• Distant future (100 - 1,000 yrs.)• Far-distant future (1,000 yrs out)Far distant future (1,000 yrs out)

Barrett, D.B & Johnson T.M. (2001) World Christian Trends AD 30 –AD 2200, p. 845

The Mid-Range FutureThe Mid-Range Futuree

Market Forces

omin

ance

Policy Reform

Rel

ativ

e D

Fortress World

R

Great Transition

1990 2010 2030 20501990 2010 2030 2050

Source: The Great Transitions, John Stutz, Tellus Institute, http://www.tellus.org

Toward the Year 3000Toward the Year 3000

Men of IssacharMen of Issachar

• Issachar‐‐ people who understood the times andunderstood the times and knew what Israel should do

1 Chronicles 12:32

The Island of CaliforniaIsland of CaliforniaIsland of California

Once You Believe in a Once You Believe in a Once you come to believe in a Once you come to believe in a Once You Believe in a Map

Once You Believe in a Mapmap, it is very difficult to

change it!map, it is very difficult to

change it!

The Pursuit of the MillenniumThe Pursuit of the Millennium

Used Future? Used Future? Used Future? Used Future?

Is your image of the future, yours or is it unconsciously borrowed from someone else?

Inayatullah, S. (2008). Six pillars: Futures thinking for transforming. Foresight, 10(1), 4-21.

Shift in Logics of ForesightShift in Logics of Foresight

Three FuturesThree Futures

1. Expected

2. AlternativePresent

3 Surprise3. Surprise

Three FuturesThree Futures

The Expected Future» Where things are likely heading?» The future if everything continues as it has» The result of conditions and trends (momentum)» Forecasts from past push, the baseline

The Alternative FutureThe Alternative Future» What might happen instead, alternative outcome» A set of plausible outcomes if something

less likely happens» The result of events and issues (contingencies)» Scenarios from uncertainties

The Surprise FutureWh t t d h» What unexpected happens

» A one-off, out of the blue, event» The result of innovations or outliers» Wildcards from disruptions

Source: Adapted from Peter Bishop, ISD Katy, August 15 2008

Three “Zones” of the FutureThree “Zones” of the Future

Impact “Surprise” “Alternative” “Expected”

High A B

C D?

C D

Low ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Unimportant ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~

1. High2. Moderate3. Low

p

g

Probability

Horizons of the FutureHorizons of the Future

Horizons of the Future• Immediate future (1 yr.)• Near-term future (1 - 10 yrs ) Forecasts• Near-term future (1 - 10 yrs.)• Middle-range future (10 - 30 yrs.)• Long-range future (30 - 100 yrs )

Forecasts

Long range future (30 100 yrs.)• Distant future (100 - 1,000 yrs.)• Far-distant future (1,000 yrs out)Far distant future (1,000 yrs out)

Barrett, D.B & Johnson T.M. (2001) World Christian Trends AD 30 –AD 2200, p. 845

Dr. Todd JohnsonDr. Todd Johnson

“Quantifying alternate futures of religion”

• Center for Global Christianity,Gordon-Conwell Theol. Seminary

• Int’l Religious Demography Project, Boston Univ.

Post-Church voices 2020Post-Church voices 2020

Example:Qualitative Forecast10 years

School of Global Leadership & Entrepreneurship | Dr. Gary

10 years

Ch hF tCh hF tChurchFutures.comChurchFutures.com

Immigrants women youth

The home of futurecasting workshops for church leaders

The future of global ChristianityThe future of global Christianity

Mini- Forecasts Expected Alternative1. Christianity as a non-western religion, yet western image

Xwestern image 2. De-Christianization of the West, also Revitalization of the West

X

Page 104

3. Global expansion of Christian theology X

4. Resurgence of other Religions, along with neo-Nationalism

X

5. Pentecostal / Charismatic renewal inplaces not shaped by Scientific & Rational Worldview

X

6. Anti-Christian sentiment in non-Western world

X

7 Fragmentation vs unity of Christianity X7. Fragmentation vs. unity of Christianity X

8. Secularization vs. Spiritualization of West X

10 Year Forecast10 Year Forecast10-Year Forecast10-Year Forecast

1 Summary1. Summary2. Current Assessment-- Stakeholders

P i E T iti-- Previous Eras, Transitions-- Constants3. Baseline Forecast-- Trends-- Projections-- CyclesCycles-- Uncertainties4. Implications

I t-- Impacts-- Policy & Plans



High A B

C D?

C D

Low ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Unimportant ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~


p

g

Probability

Scenarios are…Scenarios are…St i f th f t• Stories of the future

•They portray the future in a vivid, engaging

mannermanner.

• They convey images more than facts.

• They contain the essence not the detailsThey contain the essence not the details.

• They capture the assumptions and forces of

the future.

• They are built around critical uncertainties

Driving Force AnalysisDriving Force Analysis

http://www.weforum.org/en/initiatives/Scenarios/FuturePensionsHealthcare/index.htm

The Future of Healthcare and Pensions

Two Driving ForcesTwo Driving Forces

http://www.christianfutures.com/discontent.shtml

Four ScenariosFour Scenarios

Using Scenarios to Sharpen StrategyUsing Scenarios to Sharpen Strategy

1. Which scenarios do you find most attractive?

How can Evangelicals thrive in each scenario?

attractive?

2. How fit would the Evangelical church be for the scenarios which are less attractive?

3. Which aspects of your strategy would be effective in that scenario with no change?

4. Which aspects of your ministry approach would require amending?

5 What new models of ministry should we5. What new models of ministry should we be prototyping to be ready for what the future might bring?

What will faith formation What will faith formation What will faith formation look like in 2020?

What will faith formation look like in 2020?

•10 Trend Summary•Four Scenarios•Power pointsp•National conversation

http://www lifelongfaith com/http://www.lifelongfaith.com/

26 Trends affecting the Future of Christian Radio26 Trends affecting the Future of Christian Radio

Jenni Isaac, Regent University, MSF, 2010 Fall

Four Axis of UncertaintyFour Axis of Uncertaintyyy


Scenario Selection TableScenario Selection Table

1 U l A i1.Usual America(Continue)

2: Insecure America (Constraint)

3. Tolerant America(Collapse)

4. Int’l America(Transform)


(Transform)

Dator’s 4 Scenario Archetypes

Dator’s Four FuturesDator’s Four Futures

James Dator, "The Futures of Cultures and Cultures of the Future," in Marsella et al (eds.) Perspectives on Cross Cultural Psychology. New York, Academic Press, 1979.

Scenario / Strategy MatrixScenario / Strategy Matrix




High A B

C D?

C D

Low ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Unimportant ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~


p

g

Probability

Watson’ TimelineWatson’ Timeline

http://www.nowandnext.com

15 Provocations15 Provocations15 Provocations15 ProvocationsWhat will shape the future of faith over the next 10 years? Mark the top 4 “provocations” that you feel will mostprovocations that you feel will most shape organized religion by 2020, whether for good or bad.

• Read through it first silently.

• Turn to a neighbor, share your results & why you came to thisresults & why you came to this session!

Future of ReligionFuture of ReligionFuture of ReligionFuture of Religion

CurrentState

??+10 +5 +1 ‐10‐5‐1

Direction A

Direction B

Volatility & Uncertainty?

E t Cli t

Integrated Spirituality

Health InsecurityExtreme Climate

Rich – Poor Gap: unrest

Self Empowerment

ea secu y

Body Hacking

Boomer AgingSelf-Empowerment

Grassroots Economics

Smart Networking

Urban Wilderness

Digital YouthSmart Networking

ExtremesDilemmas of Difference

R t i i F D i i FRestraining Forces Driving Forces

endowedparishes.orgendowedparishes.orgendowedparishes.org

$10

$35 package

$10

www.iftf.org



High A B

C D?

C D

Low ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Unimportant ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~


p

g

Probability

Group ExerciseGroup Exercise List out: Group Exercisecreate a future wheelGroup Exercisecreate a future wheel

o 1 Changeo 3 First Order o 6 Second Ordero 12 Third Ordero 12 Third Order

1. Genetic Saints2. Physical Immortality2. Physical Immortality3. Artificial Intelligence4. First Contact

Partner Activity

Wildcards : via Futures WheelsWildcards : via Futures WheelsWildcards : via Futures WheelsWildcards : via Futures Wheels

1. Genetic Saints Brain augmentation or genetic i i t l i t “ i t ” engineering turns people into “saints”

& savants

2. Physical Kurzweil's "download your mind/ yImmortality consciousness into a computer"

scenario, or as Simmons' Hyperion series envisions

3. Artificial Intelligence

Robots surpass humans in both intelligence, moral character, and self-consciousness

4. First Contact via advanced aliens, 1 year later we learn of their belief or non-belief in God

Third Order

Second Order

First Order

Change

FW modelFW model

Futures WheelsFutures Wheels

Futures Wheel

Group ExerciseGroup Exercise List out: Group Exercisecreate a future wheelGroup Exercisecreate a future wheel

o 1 Changeo 3 First Order o 6 Second Ordero 12 Third Ordero 12 Third Order

1. Genetic Saints2. Physical Immortality2. Physical Immortality3. Artificial Intelligence4. First Contact

Partner Activity

"The Extraterrestrial Sermons""The Extraterrestrial Sermons"

http://www.richardb.us/project.htmlHow the reception of extraterrestrial transmissions might p gaffect world religions.



High A B

C D?

C D

Low ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ Unimportant ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~ ~


p

g

Probability

MoreMore

Two TraditionsTwo Traditions

Advent FuturumBreaks In from Outside Arises from Within

Eschatology FuturologyPurpose Causeu pose Cause

Providence PredictionReligion ScienceReligion Science

NetworksNetworksNetworksNetworks

www.wfs.org www.wfsf.org

www.profuturists.org

Force Field AnalysisForce Field AnalysisConventional NextyyCurrentState

Direction B

Direction A

??+10 +5 +1 ‐10‐5‐1

Conventional Plus

Next Generation

Landline Telephones

Network TV

Smart Phones – 4G – Cloud

Podcasting, iTunes, iPad

DVD Rental, Redbox, TiVo

Cable TV

Podcasting, iTunes, iPad

Netflix, Hulu, Amazon

P2P, Facebook, YouTube

Laptop Computers

Newspapers

, aceboo , ou ube

Internet TV. Boxee

MMOLG-Multiplayer Online Gaming

D i i FR t i i F

Media Brand Loyalty

p y g

Capture, Pico, Wearable, 6th Sense

Driving ForcesRestraining Forces

Scenario Development Scenario Development Scenario Development Scenario Development

21st Century Choices21st Century Choices

Maintenance to InnovationMaintenance to Innovation

Strategy from the “Outside-In”Strategy from the “Outside-In”

VisionMissionHigh

Church

MissionStrategyMembers

Highinfluence

Sector

CommunityFamilyCompetitorsCharitable Giving

Some influence

Macro Environment

Charitable Giving

Social changeTechnology advances

Foresight starts in the

t i l

Low influence

gyEconomic shiftsEnvironmentPolitical / Regulatory

outer circle

with forecasts, scenarios and wildcards · 2. de-christianization of the west, also revitalization...

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