with ed downs - nirvana systems inc. · and that’s all you get! a nirvana club membership pays...
TRANSCRIPT
With Ed Downs CEO and Founder, Nirvana Systems, Inc.
Agenda
Artificial Intelligence
for Traders
What is “Artificial Intelligence?”
What is Artificial Intelligence?
‘A computer algorithm that combines Inputs to find Profitable Combinations as Outputs (Signals)’
How it Works
We start with a good Strategy.
We identify INPUTS -- Systems, Indicators, and Measurements that we think have the potential to improve performance if used in the right combination.
Measurements on Charts
How it Works
We add an A.I. Component into our Strategy. Next, our Inputs are added -- Indicators, Systems, and True/False Values (or Booleans.)
How it Works
We then TRAIN the A.I. Component on the Inputs to determine conditions that improve profitability by scoring MILLIONS of combinations. The result is a TRAINED COMPONENT that allows only the most profitable Signals to be used.
ARM5 has 3 A.I. Strategy Components
• Neural Network
• Genetic Algorithm
• Consensus Block
Neural Network
The Neural Network combines a SMALL group of inputs by assigning “weights” that identify a profitable outcome. Excellent for “Smooth” Relationships, like Volatility vs. Price Change vs. Volume Change.
NN Score
Genetic Algorithm
The Genetic Algorithm combines MANY inputs (called “Genes”) to form “Chromosomes” which are tested for profitability. The GA is excellent for finding Profitable Rules formed by specific combinations of Inputs from a large number of possible combinations.
GA Signals
Consensus Block
The Consensus Block determines how profitable indicators are in combination with other indicators. Useful for “Data Mining” and understanding key relationships.
Consensus Block
ARM5: Breakthroughs
on the Genetic Algorithm
Enhancing the GA
In 2016, we focused on our Genetic Algorithm and added numerous MAJOR enhancements.
For example...
Improvements to the GA
Embedded Filters FILTERS can be specified so training happens ONLY when certain conditions are True, making the GA more specialized.
Train in the up-trend
zones.
Filters in the GA limit training to specific conditions
Improvements to the GA
Incremental Training The GA can now run “Incremental Training” so all results we see are in “Out of Sample Data.”
As a result of these improvements, we are seeing results that are better than any we have ever seen before.
Train Trade
Train Trade
Train Trade
Train Trade
Improving the Secret Sauce
We applied the GA to our Secret Sauce Heikin Ashi 2 Strategy, using: 10 Year Training (10/05 – 10/15) 1 Year Forward Test (10/15 – 10/16) The Improvement is ASTOUNDING. PPT went from -0.25 to +1.77. Hit Rate and Profit per Trade are almost IDENTICAL in the Forward Test (out-of-sample) data compared to the Back Test.
Training Period
A GA for Liquid Stocks
We trained this GA on 20 very liquid stocks.
Forward Test Results: 84.6% Accuracy and 3.27% Profit per Trade.
This is VERY close to our UTM goal (that you will learn about shortly).
RTM Performance
• These RTM Strategies use an RSI and MA FILTER in the GA.
• It’s Monthly Incremental, so everything is out of sample!
• The 1st Strategy generates 20% a year.
• The 2nd Strategy uses a specialized Trade Plan and generates 30% a year, again, in out of sample data.
All out of sample due to monthly
incremental training.
Average Return: 30% per Year
Retrain on YOUR Symbols in 3 Steps.
• Click
• Click
• Click
Improve ANY Strategy in 3 Steps.
1. Copy and Paste an existing A.I. Block to a new Strategy.
2. Run the To-Do List.
3. Check the Performance Report!
ARM5 Strategy using a GA:
My OmniTrader Strategy:
Advanced Products
for Members Only
ARM5 Indicators!
ARM5 Indicators can be plotted just like any OmniTrader (or VisualTrader) indicator.
Neural Network Indicators
Our A.I. indicators can be used for...
• Visual Confirmation
• Filters in Strategies
• Focus List Sorting
Neural Network Indicators provide Smooth indication of ideal entry points.
High Probability of a “Reversion” to
the upside.
Just Released!
Genetic Algorithm Indicators identify the probability of movement using Rules found in the GA process.
Genetic Algorithm Indicators
Positive Probability
Curved Trend Lines
The Valid Trend Line System was inspired by the work of the late J.M. Hurst. It’s a Nirvana Club exclusive in OmniTrader and VisualTrader.
VTL-B Signals identified nearly every turn.
Neural Network Exits
NSP-33 NN
NSP-33 NN with NN Stops
Smoother Equity Curve
Higher Results Example: Using Exits defined by a Neural Network.
Multiple Timeframe Confirmation
Demonstrated: Multiple Timeframe Confirmation Neural Network with NSP-41 This example is available now for members to download and use.
Equity Curves showing improvement on NSP-41 with NN
Nirvana Club Community
The Nirvana Club is a Partnership
Members
Memberships
Dues & Product
Purchases
Independent
Research
New Ideas
Dialog in the
Nirvana Club
Forum.
Company
ARM Releases
Advanced
Research
Product Discounts
Priority Support
Ultimate Trading
Machine
Community
Venues
Nirvana Club Member Forums
Members are helping us help them reach their goals.
There are tens of thousands of posts in the Nirvana Club Forum.
This is a VERY active group!
Nirvana Club Member Directory
Members provide information on their interests & can send email through the site.
* Members have the option to list full
names or abbreviations only.
The confidential Nirvana Club directory lists all members.*
Strategy Upload & Download!!!
Members can UPLOAD any Strategy, including the Profile and any Indicators that are used. Other members can DOWNLOAD them right into their OmniTrader and use/or improve them. We have a VERY active user base!
New SHARE Button.
The Annual Nirvana Club BASH
The BASH is held in
Austin each year.
FREE for Members
Bash Presentations on:
• Education
• Company News
• New Products
• UTM Update
The Bash grows each year.
Member Benefits
• The Most Advanced and Easiest to Use A.I. for serious traders and investors.
• Superb Strategies you can use IMMEDIATELY.
• Additional Power Tools not available to other traders.
• PLUS, the Many OTHER Benefits of Membership...
Everything You Need to Succeed!
Product Discounts for Members
Product or Service Current Member
Discount
All Software, including:
• VisualTrader
• Trading System Plug-In 50% All Seminar products:
• Seminars on CD or DVD
• Live Seminars
40%
Subscriptions
• OmniData & OmniScans
• Pattern Trader
• SignalWatch
30%
Members save thousands over time by virtue of their Nirvana Club membership!
Discounts on Data
The Ultimate Trading Machine Mission
“A Trading System that is 80% Accurate and generates an average Gain:Loss Ratio of 3:1.” Recent gains in the Genetic Algorithm have moved us close to this goal!
The Nirvana U.T.M. Covenant
The Nirvana Club is an individual’s best chance to acquire a Trading System that can BUILD WEALTH in their account.
Products included for New Members
When you join, you also receive the following products at no additional charge!
VisualTrader Professional Value: $1,495 +
OmniTrader Professional Value: $1,495
Products included for New Members
NSP-41 is our best Reversion to Mean Strategy, generating average profits of 24% per year over the past 15 years. It’s included at no additional charge!* * Stocks and Futures Members
NSP-41 15-Year Portfolio Simulation on the S&P 100
RELEASE
Products for New Members
Trade Equalizer The Trade Equalizer is our AUTOMATION tool for VisualTrader. It’s able to automate ANY Nirvana Strategy, including all our ARM Strategies!
VisualTrader with the Trade Equalizer
PLUS...
You get 100% access to our ARM-Powered Strategies and Indicators in OmniVest and soon, OmniFunds.
OmniVest OmniFunds
Included with Your Membership:
Product: Value: All NSP Strategies $7,000 OmniTrader Professional & Pilot $1,500 VisualTrader Professional $1,500 The Trade Equalizer $1,000 Total value of premiums ALONE: $11,000 50% Discount on our software products $ Thousands ARM Technology & Strategies, Priceless including those available in OmniVest & OmniFunds
The Time is NOW.
Discounted Member Pricing...
Level Reg. Price Special
Funds $6,000 $3,000
Stocks $10,000 $5,000
Futures and Options $11,000 $7,000
• Funds includes ETF Strategies • Stocks includes Funds and Stocks Strategies,
including Real Time Strategies & NSP Strategies • Futures & Options includes Stocks plus Strategies
designed to trade Futures and Options
The Time is NOW.
Discounted Member Pricing...
Level Reg. Price Special
Funds $6,000 $3,000
Stocks $10,000 $5,000
Futures and Options $11,000 $7,000
Nirvana Customers: Call Sales NOW 800-880-0338 or 512-345-2566 to find out how much additional credit you qualify for!
Additional Credit Available for loyal Nirvana
Customers!
Members Talk About The Nirvana Club *
“A Nirvana Club Membership has been, without a doubt, my best trade investment. I wish I had joined sooner.” - Ric Richardson
“I have looked at many other trading systems and software packages, but there is nothing even close to what the Club has to offer. I repeat, Nobody else has anything even close to this. “ - Ken Anthony
“I’ve already paid for my membership two times over from savings on software and NSP-31 trades.” - Ted McNeill “I highly recommend joining. A member's cost is always returned much sooner that one would ever expect.” - Tom Watkins
* Visit TheNirvanaClub.com and click “Testimonials”
Members at the BASH
NOTHING Beats The Club
Many companies sell Trading Systems for $5,000 or more. And that’s all you get! A Nirvana Club membership pays dividends for many years to come!
• ARM Technology & Strategies
• Advanced Tools
• Product Discounts
• Priority Support
• Nirvana Club Community
• Annual BASH Event
• Strategy Downloads
• UTM Participation
“The Nirvana Club is the best way to improve your trading, develop friendships and make money!” - Reece Beane
How to Join
Go to http://downloads.nirvanasystems.com/NClub/Application.pdf to download the Nirvana Club application.
Fill out and sign the application and fax (or scan & email) it according to the instructions.
Nirvana staff will review your application. After it is approved, we will send your Nirvana Club membership kit, complete with ARM software and other benefits of membership.
The Time
to Join
Is NOW!
Want to visit with a member? Do you have questions? Call Nirvana Sales at 1.800.880.0338
