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November 13, 2012

Will Our Future Workforce beAdequate & Capable?

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WILL OUR FUTURE WORKFORCE BE

ADEQUATED & CAPABLE?

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Dennis K. WintersChief, Office of Economic AdvisorsWisconsin Department of Workforce Development November 12, 2013


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ITEMS IN TODAY’S PRESENTATION

THE ECONOMY HAS CHANGED

WORKFORCE CONSIDERATIONS

WHO IS IN DEMAND

SKILLS EXPLORER APP


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THE ECONOMY

HAS CHANGED

AND SO MUST YOU


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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1953 ‐54

1957 ‐58

1960 ‐61

1969 ‐70

1973 ‐75

1981 ‐82

1990 ‐91

2001

2007 ‐09

Percen

t

5

ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES


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Average Real GDP Growth First 9 Quarters of Recovery

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

1953 ‐54

1957 ‐58

1960 ‐61

1969 ‐70

1973 ‐75

1981 ‐82

1990 ‐91

2001

2007 ‐09

Percen

t

9.2%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

1949 1954 1958 1960 1970 1975 1980 1982 1991 2001 2009

Real GDP Growth Sixteen Quarters into Recovery

66

ECONOMIC RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES


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JOBS RECOVERYHOW IS THIS ONE NOT LIKE THE OTHER ONES


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WHAT ISTHE

NEW ECONOMY


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EVOLUTION OFECONOMIC PROSPERITY

• 19th Century – Bigger and Better Farms

• 20th Century – Bigger and Better Factories

• 21st Century – Bigger and Better Ideas


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Old Economy

Raw Materials Cost Race to Bottom Workers Chased Jobs Quality of Life was

luck of the draw

New Economy

Brain Power Value‐Added Products Businesses Chase Talent QoL attracts talent

NEW ECONOMYCHANGED CONSTRUCT


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Stocks In

Intel

Microsoft

SBC (SWBell)

Home Depot

Pfizer*

Stocks Out

Union Carbide

Goodyear

Chevron

Sears Roebuck

International Paper*

CHANGES IN THE 30 DOW INDUSTRIALSNOVEMBER 1999

* As of 2004


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DESIGNED HEREASSEMBLED THERE

Designed in California

Assembled in China


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KATHLEEN


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Greater Capitalized Value than Ford and GM Combined

2005 Income before Taxes

from Car Sales($1.0 Billion)

from Financial Services$3.5 Billion


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Workforce development and

economic development are

interrelated and interdependent.

Ed = ED


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So, what will be thebiggest socio-economic

policy challengein the next 20 years?


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ELDERLY NUMBERS WILL SWELLWIDEN THE SIDEWALKS WILL YA !?


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OR PERHAPSTHE MORE INTERGENERATIONAL VERSION


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QUANTITY


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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCE GROWTHBECOMES FLAT

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

( x 1

000

)POPULATION CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE


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BLS RAISED LFPR FOR THE FUTUREPARTICULARLY FOR OLDER COHORTS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of the Census, OEA

Changes in LFPR by Age Cohort

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

16-19 20-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75+

Constant2000201020202030


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WISCONSIN’S WORKFORCEHIGHER LFPRs OFFER LIMITED GAINS

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, OEA

Worker Difference from Census 2000

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2010 2010 2020 2020 2030 2030

New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3% New BLS Plus 3%


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LITTLE CHANGES EVEN WITH HIGHER LFPRRETIREMENTS SWAMP PARTICIPATION

Source: Bureau of the Census, DOA, OEA

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

7,000,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

PopulationLabor force base caseBLS prj. changeElevated LFPR of 3 percentage points

Wisconsin Population and Labor Force


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NURSING WORKFORCE IN WISCONSINDEMOGRAPHICS AT WORK

Source: Office of Economic Advisors

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

< 25 25‐29 30‐34 35‐39 40‐44 45‐49 50‐54 55‐59 60‐64 65‐69 70‐74 75+

Wisconsin Nurses by Age


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QUALITY


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"The days are over when you could walk into a paper mill with a high school diploma and run one of the machines."

– Patrick Schillinger, former Wisconsin Paper Council President,Center will teach paper-industry technology, Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, JS Online, October 21, 2004.

NEW ECONOMYNEED FOR SKILLS


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Then Now

Unskilled60%

Unskilled12%Skilled

20%

Professional20%

Professional20%

Skilled68%

WorkKeys and the National Career Readiness Certificate are registered trademarks of ACT, Inc.

CHANGES IN WORKFORCE SKILL REQUIREMENTSOVER THE LAST FIFTY YEARS


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TURN YOU LOOSE ON THIS BABYI DON’T THINK SO


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WHERE ARE THE PEOPLETECHNOLOGICAL SUBSTITUTE


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“Today in most fields I know, the struggle is about creativity and innovation. There is no script.”

– Robert B. Shapiro, former CEO & Chairman, Monsanto Corporation

NEW ECONOMYNEED FOR CREATIVITY & INNOVATION


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Source: Autor, Levy and Murnane, 2003

Nonroutine manual

Routine cognitive

Routine manual

Nonroutine analytical

Nonroutine interactive

WORKPLACE REQUIREMENTSCHANGES IN SKILLS USED AT WORK*

Source: K-12 Education and Economic Summit presentation by Alan B. Krueger, Princeton University

* Based on the Dictionary of Occupational Titles


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EDUCATION INCLINATIONGAINS LIMITED AT BEST


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WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:

Unprecedented – we have never faced a declining workforce before;

Assured – demographics will change little;

Largely unalterable – demographics and migration patterns do not change abruptly.


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RAMIFICATIONS OF WORKFORCE TRENDSARE:

Potentially devastating – without sufficient productivity gains the state’s economy will stagnate;

Necessitating a focus on talent – large investments in education and training are needed;

Requiring match – talent supply and industry demand must be matched or you lose both.


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LOW INCOME GROWTH LEADS TO:DETERIORATION OF ECONOMIC CONDITION AND QUALITY OF LIFE

Lower per capita income

Decreased tax base / Budget deficits

Lower bond ratings

Decreased school funding and teacher salaries

Less & fewer public services

Lower quality of life


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Who is in

demand?


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*Job Openings includes both turnover and new jobs that are created.

MOST JOB OPENINGSBY OCCUPATION


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MOST JOB OPENINGSON JOB CENTER OF WISCONSIN


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MOST OFTEN HEARD POSITION CHALLENGESCHARACTERISTICS

Occupation Annual % Growth

Growth Openings

Replacement Openings

Total Openings

Typical Entry Education

Median Wage

Heavy truck drivers 1.90 9,490 9,040 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300

Welders 1.50 1,840 3,010 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980

Customer service representatives 1.50 7,760 14,180 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430

CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860

Maintenance workers, machinery 0.70 180 440 620 H.S. diploma $39,460

CNC machine operators 2.20 1,310 1,020 2,330 H.S. diploma $35,860

Nursing aides 1.50 6,300 4,900 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020

Registered nurses 2.20 13,780 10,450 24,230 Associate’s degree $62,860

Mechanical engineers 0.70 470 2,010 2,480 Bachelor’s degree $68,340

Food preparation and serving workers 2.30 15,360 17,140 32,500 < high school $17,910


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WHAT TRAINING TO PURSUEFIVE MAKE ALL THREE LISTS

Make all three lists Total Openings Typical Entry Education

Median Wage

Food preparation 32,500 < high school $17,910

Customer service 21,940 H.S. diploma $31,430

Registered nurses 24,230 AD/BS $62,860

Heavy truck drivers 18,530 H.S. diploma $38,300

Health care aides 11,200 Postsecondary $25,020

Make two listsWelders 4,850 H.S. diploma $37,980

Material Movers 38,900 H.S. diploma $23,590

Retail sales 69,030 < high school $20,570

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A PEEK AT THE LATEST & GREATEST APP SINCE THE CLASSIFIED ADVERTISMENT


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Industry

WebInteractive Tool

Posters

SkillsTransfer

Mobile SE Application

Skills

Current SE Application

SKILLS EXPLORERTRANSFORMATIVE


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COMBINE KEY COMPONENTSINTO USABLE TOOL


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READY?


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Fabricator

WelderMetal Worker


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Complementarytooltobeusedby:1. JobSeekers

2. HiringManagers

3. WorkforceDevelopmentStakeholders• TechnicalCollegeSystem• WorkforceDevelopmentBoards• EconomicDevelopers


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Usability Results


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Feasibility Results


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Overall Utility Results


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Wastheskillsandeducationpageuseful?

50


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Didthisconvinceyoutolookatotherjobsoroccupations?

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KeyComments

52

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http://skillexplorer.wisconsin.gov/Search.aspx


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Questions?


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Dennis Winters

Phone: 608-267-3262

Email: [email protected]

Website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov

OEA website: www.dwd.wisconsin.gov/oea

CONTACT INFORMATION

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