wisco newsletter 1q16

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Investment Advisors: Stephen Share [email protected] Greg Schroeder [email protected] First Quarter 2016 DEAR CLIENTS & FRIENDS; Despite a turbulent start to the year, both the U.S. and International stock markets ended the first quarter relatively unchanged. The U.S. stock market rose 1% in the quarter, recovering from an 11% decline through mid-February, while International equites finished flat. The U.S. fixed income market had a nice quarter with the Barclays aggregate bond index rising 3%. Bonds benefited from falling U.S. treasury rates as the interest rate on the 10-year treasury note declined from 2.3% at the beginning of the quarter to 1.8% at the end. Commodities were mixed in the quarter with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity index flat in the first quarter. Precious metals were strong in the quarter with Gold prices increasing 16% and Silver prices up 11%, this strength was offset by some weakness in agricultural commodities. The first quarter was a busy one for us at Wisco. We hosted a number of year-end client meetings over the last few months to discuss 2015 performance and to review objectives for 2016. Please feel free to contact us anytime if you would like to discuss your investment strategy, targeted risk level, performance report, or if you would like us to work on a personalized financial plan for you. Also, don’t forget that the last day to make your 2015 IRA contribution is right around the corner (tax day). As a reminder, we are always appreciative of opportunities to talk to your organizations and companies about investment-related topics. Also as spring approaches, we are excited to again be sponsoring the Logan’s Heart & Smiles Golf Outing, the Madison Parks Foundation Legacy Golf Outing and the Festa Italia. At Wisco, we believe our approach of designing well-diversified, low-cost investment portfolios is the best way to produce favorable results over time. We would like to thank you for providing us with the opportunity to work with you as your investment adviser. We appreciate your business! Sincerely, The Wisco Team

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A review of the 1Q 2016 financial markets and our outlook for the remainder of the year.

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Investment Advisors: Stephen Share [email protected] Greg Schroeder [email protected]

First Quarter 2016

DEAR CLIENTS & FRIENDS;

Despite a turbulent start to the year, both the U.S. and International stock markets ended the first quarter relatively unchanged. The U.S. stock market rose 1% in the quarter, recovering from an 11% decline through mid-February, while International equites finished flat.

The U.S. fixed income market had a nice quarter with the Barclays aggregate bond index rising 3%. Bonds benefited from falling U.S. treasury rates as the interest rate on the 10-year treasury note declined from 2.3% at the beginning of the quarter to 1.8% at the end.

Commodities were mixed in the quarter with the Dow Jones-UBS Commodity index flat in the first quarter. Precious metals were strong in the quarter with Gold prices increasing 16% and Silver prices up 11%, this strength was offset by some weakness in agricultural commodities.

The first quarter was a busy one for us at Wisco. We hosted a number of year-end client meetings over the last few months to discuss 2015 performance and to review objectives for 2016. Please feel free to contact us anytime if you would like to discuss your investment strategy, targeted risk level, performance report, or if you would like us to work on a personalized financial plan for you. Also, don’t forget that the last day to make your 2015 IRA contribution is right around the corner (tax day).

As a reminder, we are always appreciative of opportunities to talk to your organizations and companies about investment-related topics. Also as spring approaches, we are excited to again be sponsoring the Logan’s Heart & Smiles Golf Outing, the Madison Parks Foundation Legacy Golf Outing and the Festa Italia.

At Wisco, we believe our approach of designing well-diversified, low-cost investment portfolios is the best way to produce favorable results over time. We would like to thank you for providing us with the opportunity to work with you as your investment adviser. We appreciate your business!

Sincerely,

The Wisco Team

The domestic equity market recovered from a significant decline in January and the first part of February to post a 1% return in the quarter. The S&P 500 started the year at 2044 only to decline steadily throughout January. On February 11th the S&P 500 bottomed at 1829, the S&P 500 then rallied to close the quarter at 2060, 4% below its all-time high of 2135 reached May 20th. Lackluster economic results were partly responsible for the market’s decline. S&P 500 4Q15 operating

earnings declined 2% compared to 4Q14, and 4Q15 GDP growth was up just 1.4%. Poor results from energy and commodity companies were a substantial headwind to corporate earnings. However, an increase in commodity prices along with dovish language from the Federal Reserve reduced recession fears and sparked a rally in the second half of the quarter. Going forward, we feel low single digit earnings growth is possible as the headwinds from low oil prices and a strong dollar will likely dissipate, while a stronger economy and better consumer spending could improve the prospect for earnings growth.

While not for the faint of heart, we feel there are reasons to be optimistic about the domestic equity market. The S&P 500 is trading at a P/E less than 17x 2016 consensus operating earnings which seems like a reasonable valuation especially with the 10-year Treasury note yielding just 1.8%. Therefore, we remain constructive on the domestic stock market and feel modest positive returns are possible in 2016. With that in mind, Wisco continues to have significant domestic equity exposures in all our client portfolios.

First Quarter 2016 Market Review

Wisco Investment ManagementWisco model portfolios are constructed using five different asset classes; Domestic Equity, International Equity, Domestic Fixed Income, Alternative Investments and Cash. Our current model portfolio asset class allocations are as follows:

First Quarter 2016

WISCO MODEL PORTFOLIOS Conservative Balanced Balanced Growth Growth Aggressive

Domestic Equity 29% 38% 43% 50% 65%International Equity 7% 12% 19% 24% 29%Domestic Fixed Income 50% 39% 29% 18% 0%Alternative Investments 5% 5% 5% 5% 5%Money Market 8% 6% 4% 2% 1%Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

Target Volatility* 6% 8% 10% 12% 14%

*Target Volatility is our estimate for the annual standard deviation of portfolio returns. Source: Wisco Investment Management LLC

Source: Dow Jones U.S. Broad Stock Market Index and Wisco.

DOMESTIC EQUITY35%

30%

25%

20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10% 1Q16

4Q15

3Q15

2Q15

1Q15

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011Quarterly Returns13%

33%

0%1%

16%

-7%

6%2%

0% 1%

International equity followed a pattern similar to the domestic market falling in the first half of the quarter before recovering in the second half to finish flat. In Europe, the FSTE 100 decreased 2% in 1Q16. The Euro area GDP continues to post modest results with GDP up 0.3% in 4Q15. Hungary (+17%) and Poland (+12%) were among the strongest performers in 1Q16, while Italy (-11%) lagged. In Asia, the Nikkei 225 declined 5% and the Shanghai composite (-15%) also had negative results in 1Q16. The FTSE Emerging Market Index recovered in 1Q16 up 6% after declining 16% in 2015, as Brazil (+29%) and Russia (+16%) both had bounce back quarters.

International markets continue to trade at a significant discount to the domestic stock market. Over time this low valuation could result in stronger performance in international markets. On a fundamental basis, the domestic economy continues to perform better than most overseas economies. Nevertheless, the ECB’s quantitative easing program, a strong U.S. dollar and improving commodity prices could accelerate growth internationally. Therefore, we hold international equities in all our portfolios and continue to believe it is an important asset class to own in a well-diversified portfolio.

Fixed Income had solid results in 1Q16 with Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index increasing 3%. These strong results were board based with TIPS (+5%), Investment Grade Bonds (+5%) and High Yield Bonds (+3%) all performing well. The 10-year treasury yield started the quarter at 2.27% and ended 1Q16 at 1.79%, as the global growth scare drove down interest rates. Market and economic uncertainty also caused the Federal Reserve to reduce its forecast of year end short term rates with the current expectation of less than three 0.25% interest rate increases in 2016. This also was a catalyst for lower rates in the quarter.

With inflation below the Fed’s target combined with the market’s poor reaction to the December rate increase, we think it is possible the Federal Reserve could be on the sidelines even longer than its forecast suggests. Under this backdrop, Wisco feels Fixed Income could post returns in the mid-single digit range for 2016. Therefore, we continue to hold Fixed Income securities in all but our most aggressive portfolios and prefer government bonds, inflation protected bonds and investment grade corporate bonds. We are avoiding high yield bonds because of possible defaults from energy companies.

DOMESTIC FIXED INCOMEINTERNATIONAL EQUITY20%

15%

10%

5%

0%

-5%

-10%

-15%

-20% 1Q16

4Q15

3Q15

2Q15

1Q15

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Quarterly Returns

-3%

-6%

17%14%

0%4%

-12%-14%

Source: MSCI ACWI ex USA and Wisco

3%

10%

8%

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4% 1Q16

4Q15

3Q15

2Q15

1Q15

2015

2014

2013

2012

2011

Source: Barclays Capital U.S. Aggregate Bond Index and Wisco.

3%Quarterly Returns

6%

8%

3%

-2%-1%

-2%

1%0%

1%0%

Wisco Investment Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. Information presented is for educational purposes only and does not intend to make an offer or solicitation for the sale or purchase of any specific securities product, service, or investment strategy. Investments involve risk and unless otherwise stated, are not guaranteed. Be sure to first consult with a qualified financial adviser, tax professional, or attorney before implementing any strategy or recommendation discussed herein.

ALTERNATIVE INVESTMENTS

The Dow Jones-UBS Commodity Index was flat in the quarter. In agriculture, Corn prices decreased 2%1, but Soybean prices increased 5%1, as prices remain well below their 2011 highs. Going forward, we think consistently low prices could result in less acres planted this Spring in North America and Russia. Gold prices were strong in the quarter increasing 16%2, while silver prices increased 11%3. Market uncertainty in the quarter helped drive precious metal prices higher. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REIT) increased 5%4 in the quarter as investors looked to purchase income producing assets. Finally, Crude Oil prices increased 2%5 in 1Q16, as the oil market declined in the first half of the quarter before recovering in the second half of 1Q16.

Wisco continues to include Alternative Investments in our portfolios. For lower risk portfolios, we are holding gold. Gold is generally inversely correlated with the equity market which helps reduce the risk in these portfolios. For more aggressive portfolios, we hold agricultural commodities, which we feel could benefit from less supply this planting season.

MONEY MARKET

Wisco keeps a modest money market allocation in all of our portfolios. The current yield of the Schwab Money Market is 0.01%. Low Federal Funds rates have held down short-term yields. If the Federal Reserve increases rates in 2016, the yield for money markets may modestly increase. Nevertheless, we think short-term interest rates will remain low for an extended period of time.

1. Return calculation based on the near future contract as quoted in the Wall Street Journal. 2. Return calculation uses ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL) as a proxy for gold.3. Return calculation uses iShares Silver Trust ETF (SLV) as a proxy for silver.4. Return calculation uses Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH) as a proxy for Real Estate Investment Trusts.5. Return calculation uses Cushing, OK WTI spot price FOB as a proxy for oil.

402 Gammon Place, Suite 380 • Madison, WI 53719 • Office 608.442.5507 • Fax 608.237.2206