Winter Preparedness of the

Natural Gas and Electric Supply

Office of Electric, Gas, and Water

Office of Consumer Services

October 19, 2017

Albany, New York

2017-2018 Winter Season

2

Natural Gas

Winter OutlookCynthia H. McCarran

Deputy Director of Gas & Water

Office of Electric, Gas and Water

3

Adequate Capacity and Supplies

Review of expected customer requirements for design weather conditions for this winter.

Review of supplies to meet expected customer requirements for design weather conditions for this winter.

Staff will continue to monitor supply, prices and interruptible customers throughout the winter

4

NY Central Park Historic Heating Seasons

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Pea

k H

DD

s

Tota

l S

easo

n

HD

Ds

Winter SeasonsSeason HDDs Peak HDDs

5

LDC Commodity Portfolio Firm Customers

2017-18

Typical

Portfolio

2016-17

Winter

Forecast

$/dth

2016-17

Winter

Actual

$/dth

2017-18

Winter

Forecast

$/dth

Physical

Storage35% $1.85 $1.71 $2.26

Hedged Supply 16% $2.73 $2.68 $3.18

Flowing Gas 49% $2.53 $2.96 $3.23

Average Winter

Commodity

Price

$2.33 $2.54 $2.90

35%

16%

49%

New York State Gas UtilityTypical 2017-18 Winter Supply

Portfolio

Storage Hedged Unhedged

6

Statewide Avg. Winter BillsResidential Heating

Customer

2016-17

Actual

Weather

2016-17

Normal

Weather

2017-18

Normal

Weather

% Change

Normal

2016-17

vs.

Normal

2017-18

$705 $738 $797 +8.0%

7

Summary

NY gas utilities have contracted for adequate capacity and supplies and are ready to meet 2017-2018 winter conditions

Commodity prices are projected to rise compared to last year, but remain lower than the five year average

Compared to the five year average, customer bills this winter are expected to be slightly higher

8

Bulk Electric System

Preparedness

Vijay Puran

Bulk Electric Systems

Office of Electric, Gas and Water

9

New York State Historic Coincident Peaks

25,738 Record Winter Peak

Forecast24,365

Record Summer Peak 33,956

29,699

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

34,000

36,000

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

MW

Year

Historic Coincident Peaks

Winter

Summer

10

New York Winter 2017/18 Capability & Load

NYISO Provided Data MW

Winter Generation Capacity 41,454

New York Special Case Resources (SCRs) 792

Net Purchases & Sales 2311

LESS: Total Projected Capacity Outages (4,772)

NET WINTER CAPACITY RESOURCES 39,785

Winter Peak Load Forecast 24,365

Operating Reserve Requirement 2,620

Capacity Margin 12,800

11

Major Generating Facilities Assessment

Staff reached out to major generating facility owners located primarily on the

southeastern portion of New York

Lessons learned and beneficial changes made as result of the 2013/2014 Polar

Vortex are continuing

On-site storage and replenishment of fuel oil is a critical issue

State Agencies and NYISO Winter Protocol

12

NYISO

NYISO Winter 2017/2018 Preparations

Continue enhancements and activities developed over recent years

• Use enhanced shortage pricing curves to incent generators to meet day-ahead commitments

• Increase total operating reserve requirements

• Monitor fuel availability

• Share confidential operational information with interstate pipelines

Neighboring RTO/ISO

ISO New England

• Winter Reliability Program

PJM

• Enhanced Capacity Performance Program

13

Electric Utility Portfolio

Price Volatility and

Supply Price Outlook

Paul J. Darmetko Jr.

Electric Rates & Tariffs

Office of Electric, Gas and Water

14

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Co

eff

icie

nt

of

Va

ria

tio

nNYISO Spot Market vs.

Utility Full Service Residential Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility

(Statewide 12-month rolling average)

Portfolio Market

15

$-

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

$180

$200

$/M

Wh

NYISO Day Ahead-Around The Clock Historic Actual Energy Prices vs. NYMEX Futures

West Actual West Futures

Hudson Actual Hudson Futures

NYC Actual NYC Futures

16

NY West LBMP ($/MWH)

NY Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH)

New York City LBMP ($/MWH)

$31.83

$52.21

$54.93

$25.56

$37.54

$38.32

$40.68

$53.51

$55.43

Average Energy Price Comparison Winter Season

NYMEX Futures Dec 2016 - Mar 2017

Day Ahead Market Dec 2016 -Mar 2017

NYMEX Futures Dec 2017 - Mar 2018

17

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016 - 2017 2017 - 2018Est.

Statewide Weighted Average Full Service Residential Supply Price - Winter Months

(Cents per kWh)

18

Outreach and Education

Programs for 2017-18

Winter Season

Andrew Bisnett

Consumer Outreach and Education

Office of Consumer Services

19

Financial assistance/bill payment options

Steps to improve energy efficiency

Safety information regarding natural gas,

electricity and carbon monoxide

Storm preparation

Messages

20

DPS Outreach Efforts

Educational materials

Grassroots – events, website, customer

service

Partnerships with service organizations,

government agencies, community groups

21

News Media

Website/Social Media/Mobile Applications

Customer Education – publications, events,

bill inserts/messaging

Public Relations

Employee Training and Quality Monitoring

Utility Outreach Efforts