winter preparedness of the natural gas and …...2016/10/13 · new york city lbmp ($/mwh) $40.68...
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Winter Preparedness of the
Natural Gas and Electric Supply
Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
Office of Consumer Services
October 13, 2016
Albany, New York
2016-2017 Winter Season
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Natural Gas
Winter OutlookCynthia H. McCarran
Deputy Director of Gas & Water
Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
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-15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
Wa
rmer
Co
lder
Winter
01-02
Winter
02-03
Winter
03-04
Winter
04-05
Winter
05-06
Winter
06-07
Winter
07-08
Winter
08-09
Winter
09-10
Winter
10-11
Winter
11-12
Winter
12-13
Winter
13-14
Winter
14-15
Winter
15-16
Albany 16.9% -6.2% 0.0% -1.3% 9.9% 5.7% 3.1% 1.2% 9.9% -2.1% 20.5% 4.2% -9.3% -9.7% 22.1%
NYC 21.3% -8.4% -2.9% -0.2% 8.4% 6.3% 2.8% -2.1% 5.8% -4.0% 24.3% 0.4% -9.7% -12.2% 23.1%
HDD % Warmer or (Colder) than Normal
(Heating Seasons Nov 1 - March 31)
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Adequate Capacity and Supplies
Review of expected customer requirements for design weather conditions for this winter.
Review of supplies to meet expected customer requirements for design weather conditions for this winter.
Staff will continue to monitor supply, prices and interruptible customers throughout the winter
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NYMEX Gas Futures Prices
Forecast for November 2016 and beyond as of October 7, 2016
Jan-09, $5.93
Jan-16, $2.21
$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
Per
MM
BTU
NYMEX NYMEX Forecast
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LDC Commodity Portfolio Firm Customers
2016-17
Typical
Portfolio
2015-16
Winter
Forecast
$/dth
2015-16
Winter
Actual
$/dth
2016-17
Winter
Forecast
$/dth
Physical
Storage33% $2.01 $1.82 $1.79
Hedged Supply 14% $3.10 $2.87 $2.56
Flowing Gas 53% $2.05 $1.65 $2.44
Average Winter
Commodity
Price
$2.16 $1.88 $2.24
33%
14%
53%
New York State Gas UtilityTypical 2016-17 Winter Supply
Portfolio
Storage Hedged Unhedged
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Statewide Avg. Winter BillsResidential Heating
Customer
2015-16
Actual
Weather
2015-16
Normal
Weather
2016-17
Normal
Weather
% Change
Actual
2015-16
vs.
Normal
2016-17
% Change
Normal
2015-16
vs.
Normal
2016-17
$610 $650 $694 +13.7% +6.7%
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Typical Residential Customer Gas Supply Prices
$-
$1.00
$2.00
$3.00
$4.00
$5.00
$6.00
2011/2012 2012/2013 2013/2014 2014/2015 2015/2016 Forecast 2016/2017
Down State Upstate
$/dt
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Coordination with Oil Industry
Interruptible gas customers must meet certain requirements to maintain alternate fuel inventories so that there are no anticipated problems with fuel switching
LDCs will be conducting tests and may inspect alternate fuel burning equipment of interruptible customers where needed to ensure compliance with alternate fuel inventory requirements
Communications protocol was developed last winter season, and it will continue to be implemented. We have issued the protocols for comment and will bring it to the Commission by January to make them enforceable.
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Summary
NY gas utilities have contracted for adequate capacity and supplies and are ready to meet 2016-2017 winter conditions
Commodity prices are in a downward trend compared to recent history
Compared to the five year average, customer bills this winter are expected to be the same or lower
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Bulk Electric System
Preparedness
Leka P. Gjonaj
Electric Bulk Systems
Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
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New York State Historic Coincident Peaks
Record Winter Peak: 25,738 Forecast
24,445
Record Summer Peak: 33,956
32,076
22,000
24,000
26,000
28,000
30,000
32,000
34,000
36,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
MW
Year
Historic Coincident Peaks
Winter
Summer
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New York Winter 2016/17 Capability & Load
NYISO Provided Data MW
2016 Generation 40,092
New York Special Case Resources (SCRs) 842
External Purchase Contracts 504
LESS: Total Projected Capacity Outages (4,940)
TOTAL 2015 CAPACITY 36,498
Load Forecast 24,445
Operating Reserve Requirement 2,620
Capacity Margin 9,433
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Major Generation Facilities
Staff reached out to major generation facility owners located primarily on the
southeastern portion of New York.
Lessons learned and beneficial changes made as result of the 2013/2014 Polar
Vortex are continuing.
On-site storage and replenishment of fuel oil is a critical issue.
State Agencies and NYISO Winter Protocol
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NYISO Winter 2015/2016
Enhanced shortage pricing curves – incentives for generators to meet day-ahead commitments – in effect as of
November 4th, 2015
Increase total reserve requirements – in effect as of November 4th, 2015
NYISO and interstate pipelines can now share operational information with each other for the purpose of
promoting reliable service or operational planning on either system
Winter 2016/2017 Continue with prior enhancements and activities.
Neighboring RTO/ISO ISO New England
Continued Winter Reliability Program (WRP)
• Compensation for unused oil inventory
• Compensation for unused LNG contract volume
• Demand response
• Incentives for commissioning dual-fuel capacity
PJM
Enhanced Capacity Performance Proposal to begin winter 2016/2017
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Electric Utility Portfolio
Price Volatility and
Supply Price Outlook
Paul J. Darmetko Jr.
Electric Rates & Tariffs
Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
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0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Co
eff
icie
nt
of
Vari
ati
on
NYISO Spot Market vs.Utility Full Service Residential
Customer Supply Portfolio Volatility (Statewide 12-month rolling average)
Portfolio Market
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$-
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
$180
$200
$/M
Wh
NYISO Day Ahead-Around The Clock Historic Actual Energy Prices Vs. NYMEX Futures
West Actual West Futures Hudson Actual Hudson Futures NYC Actual NYC Futures
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NY West LBMP ($/MWH)
NY Hudson Valley LBMP ($/MWH)
New York City LBMP ($/MWH)
$40.68
$53.51
$55.43
$19.17
$25.74
$26.34
$44.04
$65.26
$67.94
Average Energy Price Comparison Winter Season
NYMEX Futures Dec 2015 - Mar 2016
Spot Market Dec 2015 -Mar 2016
NYMEX Futures Dec 2016 - Mar 2017
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0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Winter 2011-2012
Winter 2012-2013
Winter 2013-2014
Winter 2014-2015
Winter 2015-2016
Est. Winter2016-2017
Cents
per
kW
h
Statewide Weighted Average Full Service Residential Supply Price
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DPS Outreach Efforts
Outreach staff will provide materials on energy
assistance, gas safety, and other issues that will be
available to community based organizations
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2016-2017 Winter Preparedness
Office of Electric, Gas, and Water
Office of Consumer Services
October 13, 2016
Albany, New York