winter component of the t-parc

Winter component of the T-PARCYucheng Song1, Zoltan Toth2, Yoshio Asuma3, Rolf Langland4, Carolyn Reynolds4, Edmund Chang5, Jack Parrish6, Istvan Szunyogh7, Chris Doyle8, Trevor Smith8, Mel Shapiro9, Alexander Kats10, Mark Moran11, Christina Prates11, Cihan Sahin11, David Richardson11, Tim Hewson11

(1) Plurality at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, USA(2) NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, Camp Springs, MD, USA (3) University of the Ryukyus, Okinawa, Japan (4) NRL, Monterey, CA, USA(5) SUNY, Stonybrook, NY, USA (6) NOAA/AOC, MacDill AFB, FL, USA(7) Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, USA(8) Environment Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada (9) UCAR, Boulder, CO, USA(10) Roshydromet/CAO, Moscow, Russia(11) ECMWF, Shinfield Park, UNITED KINGDOM

Third THORPEX International Science Symposium (TISS) 2009.09.14-18 10:10-10:30

• Motivations

• Operations

• Preliminary evaluations

• Summary

Outline

CASE DEPENDENT, ETKF-BASED ANALYSIS OF THE INFLUENCE ON THE WINTER STORM

Sharan Majumdar

March 05March 04

March 07March 06

Verification event March 11

20 more times bigger errors than initial condition error after 5 days

GFS “dropout” case

The time-mean geopotential height of the 300-hPa surface for (a) WSR99 and (b) WSR00. The sample period starts at 0000 UTC 13 Jan 1999 for WSR99 and at 0000 UTC 23 Jan 2000 for WSR00. Shown by shades is the daily amplification of the most unstable baroclinic mode (Eady index) for the time-mean flow in the 850–925-hPa layer. Dropsonde locations are shown by crosses

Szunyogh et al. 2002, M.W.R

Storm track regions are most unstable regions

a)

b)

Day -4-6

RAWIN

Russia

D -2-4

G-IV

D -1-3

C-130

G-IV

North

America

VR

Arctic

VR Day -5-6E-AMDAR

Extensive observational platforms during T-PARC winter phase allow us to track the potential storms and take additional observations as the perturbation propagate downstream into Arctic and North America

ENHANCED OBSERVING PLATFORMS

Collaborative efforts of winter T-PARC among multi-agencies

CONTRIBUTORS / PARTICIPANTS• Funding for observing assets

– NOAA, Env. Canada, Roshydromet, Japan• Science / operational aspects

– US, Canada, Mexico, Russia, Japan, ECMWF/UKMO (including Universities and Institutions)

• Data archiving– NASA Langley Research Center Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (NASA)

OPERATIONS

The main website is the central place for forecast products and discussions

A plethora of products have been used to provide sound guidance to the adaptive platforms

Significant amount of coordination among different participants

1. Track redesign due to length change or weather pattern changes

2. Different time zones

3. Air traffic control

4. “Lost in translation”

Requests from HPC/SPC/OTHERS - example

46N 148E at 21/12Z Asian low

50N 128W at 23/00Z Vancouver area

Priority Valid Time Area Remarks

High 02/22-24/12z 40N 123W West coast pcpn

Moderate 02/22/00z 39N 80W Eastern US system

02/23/00z 42N 72W

Moderate 02/24/00z 35N 90W MS-TN Valley pcpn

02/25/00z 35N 87W

High.......02/23/00Z...33N/83W....Upper trof supporting psbl E coast storm Medium.....02/23-24/00Z...40N/122W....CA precipitation

ECMWF/UKMO DTS system used as a reference in winter T-PARC

Today’s run +36

Our tool to design the tracks based on overlaid summary chart onto Google map

Google earth is widely used for track display and distance measurement

G-IV and C-130 tracks on Feb 13, 12Z

Comparing sensitivity charts with short lead forecasts – as a reference to design the tracks

A sound check with short lead time forecast

After flight check - track overlaid on MTSAT maps

Surface pressure and 500mb geopotential heightCourtesy of Dr. Asuma Yoshio

Wave packet from analysis

From Edmund Chang

Wave packet analysis used as a reference

timing and location

Winter T-PARC platform statistics

NOAA G-IV:

24 successful missions, 201hrs flown with 456 dropsondes

Out of Japan during Jan 11 to Feb 26, 2009

USAF C-130s:

14 successful missions, 142.8hrs flown with 212 dropsondes

Out of Alaska during Jan 20 to Feb 13, 2009

E-AMDAR from Lufthansa airlines:

(Descents and Ascents: boxed area)

Total: 802+1103=1905 profiles

7040+10600=17640 en route obs

From Jan 11 – Feb 28, 2009

Enhanced Russia RAOBS:

Total 602 radiosondes released

from a selected of 37 stations

for 33 cases

From Jan 12 to Feb 28, 2009

The tireless G-IV crew and their tracks

NOAA AOC G-IV crews for T-PARC

T-PARC/WSR09 tracks

Evaluation Results

21

Overall results for Surface pressure(T-PARC 2009)

In certain cases, significant RMS reductions are observed as high as 35%

22

Overall results for vector wind(T-PARC 2009)

23

Surface Pressure RMS vs. Fcst Hours

RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time

~10-20% rms error reduction in winds

24

Vector Wind RMS vs. Fcst Hours

RMS error reduction vs. forecast lead time

~10-20% rms error reduction in winds

Beyond 4 days

25

T-PARC Summary statistics

Variable# cases

improved# cases neutral

#cases degraded

Surface pressure 37 0 15

Temperature 35 0 17

Vector Wind 36 0 16

Humidity 28 0 24

39 OVERALL POSITIVE CASES.

13 OVERALL NEGATIVE CASES. 75% improved 25% degraded

26

4 significant systems/events

DateVerification

RegionLeading hours

Surface pressure

RMS (with)

Surface pressure

RMS (w/o)

RMS error reduction

Jan 31 E (77W, 44N) 84 3.25mb 5.45mb 67%

Feb 06AK (156W, 58N)

132 7.75mb 9.904mb 27.7%

Feb 13 W (115W,35N) 72 1.20mb 1.618mb 34.8%

Feb 24 W(123W,40N) 108 7.07mb 9.56mb 35.2%

Wild West -- The worst weather on this Presidents Day Monday is in California, where rain, snow and wind are pounding most of the state. Flood watches have been posted for coastal areas while winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the eastern part of the state. The worst of the storminess will end later today, as the system moves into the Great Basin overnight and Tuesday. That same storm will eject into the middle and southern states by later Tuesday and Wednesday. Feb 16, 2009 from USATODAY

Up to two meters of snow had fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the past week

Review the Feb 13, 12Z missions

Wild West -- The worst weather on this Presidents Day Monday is in California, where rain, snow and wind are pounding most of the state. Flood watches have been posted for coastal areas while winter storm warnings are in effect for most of the eastern part of the state. The worst of the storminess will end later today, as the system moves into the Great Basin overnight and Tuesday. That same storm will eject into the middle and southern states by later Tuesday and Wednesday. Feb 16, 2009 from USATODAY

Up to two meters of snow had fallen in the Sierra Nevada over the past week

30

March 1, 2009 CA Storm

• Weather event with a large societal impact• Each GFS run verified against its own analysis – 60 hr forecast• Impact on surface pressure verification• RMS error improvement: 35.2% (7.07mb vs. 9.56mb)Targeted in high impact weather area marked by the circle

Surface pressure from analysis (hPa; solid contours)Forecast Improvement (hPa; shown in red)Forecast Degradation (hPa; blue)

31

March 1, 2009 CA StormForecast improvement Red: forecast improvement

Globally averaged fit of surface pressure:Difference of forecast-analysis

Major snowstorm roars up coast

Atlantic coast braces for biggest snowstorm of the season March 2, 2009, heavy rainfall near CA on the 27th, Feb

WHY T-PARC? The best example

Strong connection of the tropical and extra-tropical systems

TARGETED DROPSONDE IMPACT ON 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS

Jan 20/12UTC high impact per-observation

Summed impact of dropsonde observations (error reduction is

NEGATIVE, units are J kg-1)Courtesy of Rolf Langland

FEBRUARY 2009

1x10-3 J kg-1 (Moist Total Energy Norm)

Total # of targeted radiosonde data = 29,898 (06UTC and 18UTC)

Number of targeted radiosonde profiles = 272 (33 stations provided at least one profile)

Total targeted radiosonde impact = -0.6626 J kg-1

JANUARY 2009

Error Reduction Error Increase

Total # of targeted radiosonde data = 27,508 (06UTC and 18UTC)

Number of targeted radiosonde profiles = 247 (33 stations provided at least one profile)

Total targeted radiosonde impact = -0.4322 J kg-1

For comparison: 00UTC and 12UTC observations from these same stations: -4.24 J kg-1 and 2,154 profiles during all of January 2009


Courtesy of Rolf Langland


Error Reduction Error Increase

Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR ascent/descent data = 17,444 (12-31 January 2009)

Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = -0.583 J kg-1

GLOBAL Lufthansa AMDAR ascent/descent impact = -2.89 J kg-1 and 113,151 data during all of January 2009

JANUARY 2009 FEBRUARY 2009

Total # targeted LH-EAMDAR ascent/descent data = 24,423 (1-28 February 2009)

Total targeted LH-EAMDAR impact = -0.7663 J kg-1


A myriad of research interests in Winter T-PARC Strong mapping into the US THORPEX Science Plan ( 13 of 15 priorities)

• Rossby wave packet analysis and IPY connection (3.4,4.4)

• Meso-scale storm structure and moist processes studies (4.1)

• Multi-scale tropical influences – YOTC (3.1,3.3,4.4)

• Data assimilation: best use of observations (4.2)

• Satellite data calibration/validation with in situ data (4.2)

• Adaptive targeting studies (4.3)

• Ensemble-based probabilistic forecasting & socio-economic applications - Winter Olympic Demo (4.5,5.1-5)

Field phase completed, data archived by NASA How to support post-field research/evaluation?

Data archive

contribution by NASA-Langley Research Center

Web address: http://science.larc.nasa.gov/T-PARC/

Need user account to access

Support sftp and scp for scripting purposes

Please contact us:

[email protected]

Data:

satellite data

conventional data

cloud images with tracks

Some DTS products

Analysis and forecast

(pressure level data)Ackn: John Murray and Jared Entin (LARC)

mailto:[email protected]

Summary and Plans• Field phase successfully completed

– Winter T-PARC marks the first time vertical profiling of winter storms conducted west of the dateline

• Data archived at NASA (LARC)• A wide variety of research opportunities now open

– An ideal framework for research studies such as • dynamical /physical processes• storm initiation/propagation• the role of moist processes• interaction of tropical convection with extra-tropical storms• Socio-economical impact studies

• Need to identify funding resources for further research• Ongoing evaluation

– NRL preliminary evaluation • large positive impact on the 24hr forecast• more than 90% of the data reduced forecast errors

– NCEP data denial experiments• Full rejection (done)• Only rejecting the aircraft data (ongoing)

• Propose a joint meeting with summer T-PARC next year

GDAS: 300mb v (ave:30-60N) PRX2: 300mb v (ave:30-60N)

PRX2-PRX4: 300mb v (ave:30-60N)

JANUARY 2009 FEBRUARY 2009

Sensitivity of 24hr Forecast to initial conditions


WTPARC Targeted Observation Summary – NOGAPS/NAVDAS

Impact on moist total-energy 24h forecast error norm in global domain

January 2009

Impact # of obs Avg impact per-ob

EAsian EAMDAR -0.5830 Jkg-1 17,444 3.34 x 10-5 Jkg-1

Dropsondes -0.6679 Jkg-1 27,444 2.43 x 10-5 Jkg-1

Russian Raobs -0.4332 Jkg-1 27,508 1.58 x 10-5 Jkg-1

(06z and 18Z) February 2009





(06 and 18Z)

Petropavlosk -0.2047 Jkg-1 3,396 6.03 x 10-5 Jkg-1


WTPARC Targeted Observation Summary – NOGAPS/NAVDAS

Impact on moist total-energy 24h forecast error norm in global domain

January 2009





(06z and 18Z) February 2009





(06 and 18Z)

Petropavlosk -0.2047 Jkg-1 3,396 6.03 x 10-5 Jkg-1

Raob Station 32540

Petropavlosk Kamchatskoe (53.02N, 158.72E)

Feb 2009 (very large forecast error reduction)

Total Impact of all soundings = -0.4281 J kg-1 (10,320 data)

Just the 06Z and 18Z soundings = -0.2047 J kg-1 (3,396 data)

Station 32540 radiosonde impact on 24H FORECAST ERROR IN NOGAPS/NAVDAS – Feb 2009

Number of Station 32540 radiosonde observations

assimilated in NOGAPS/NAVDAS

Summed impact of Station 32540 observations (error reduction is

NEGATIVE, units are J kg-1)

6-hour assimilation windows

winter component of the t-parc

Documents

w moderate

w high

winter tparctodays

z asian low

w eastern us system

tparc winter phase

winter component

w west coast pcpn moderate