winning the olympic games in 2020 (2)

7/29/2019 Winning the Olympic Games in 2020 (2)

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centreforfuturestudiesstrategic futures consultancy

winning theolympic games in 2020

insight briefing


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centreforfuturestudies

Winning the Olympic Games in 2020______________________________________________________________________________

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Grayling

Grayling is the worlds second largest independent Public Relations, Public Affairs, InvestorRelations and Events consultancy with specialist services including CSR, environment andsustainability and digital. Grayling has 900 staff in 70 offices in 40 countries across the US,Western and Eastern Europe, Africa and Asia Pacific.

Portland House

Bressenden Place

London

SW1E 5BH

United Kingdom

Tel: +44 (0) 20 7932 1850

http://www.grayling.com/

Centre for Future Studies

The Centre for Future Studies (CFS) is a strategic futures consultancy enabling organisationsto anticipate and manage change in their external environment. Our foresight work involvesresearch and analysis across the spectrum of political, economic, social and technologicalthemes. Our clients include national and international companies, not-for-profit organisations,government departments and agencies.

Centre for Future Studies

Innovation Centre

Kent University

Canterbury, Kent

CT2 7FG

+44 (0) 1227 709575

[email protected]

www.futurestudies.co.uk

September 2010
http://www.grayling.com/http://www.futurestudies.co.uk/http://www.futurestudies.co.uk/http://www.grayling.com/


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Contents

Introduction 4Synopsis 5Rio de Janeiro sets the scene 7The potential contenders 10Past host cities 18The 2016 Results 19Qualitative selection factors

drawn from past bids experience2012 Olympic Bid London 202016 Olympic Bid Rio 21

Appendix 22


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IntroductionThe competition to host the 2020 SummerOlympics, officially known as the Games of theXXXII Olympiad, has yet to begin. The selectionprocess will start in 2011 and a host nation isexpected to be announced in mid 2013.Nonetheless, nations are already vying to winthe prize of hosting this mega internationalsports and cultural festival.

The selection process and the criteria used to evaluate applications are

well documented. However, it has been observed in the past that the IOCmembers do not vote based on the quality of the bid alone and often theresults are unpredictable. There are other qualitative factors (invisibledynamics) which are taken into account including geopolitics, IOC politics,public support, commercial interests and creativity; all of which areconsidered to have an impact on the IOC voters.

Grayling, working in collaboration with the Centre for Future Studies, hasinvestigated the qualitative factors likely to influence the IOC over andabove the technical criteria set out in the questionnaires. This InsightBriefing narrates the key findings of the research and analysis.


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SynopsisThe conclusions reached are the result of research and analyses into theexperience of past Summer Olympic bids, the forces of change and thelessons that can be drawn from the BidIndex (See Appendix)

In particular, the successful bids ofLondon for the 2012 Olympics and ofRio de Janeiro for the 2016 Olympicswere used as models for identifyingthe invisible dynamics at play as bothbids illustrate that the IOC vote is notbased on the quality of the bid aloneand often the results areunpredictable.

The key findings are:

A strong technical bid is not sufficient to win the Olympics. The bidmust be communicated with creative zeal and passion. As PresidentLula of Rio said; The other countries made proposals. We presented aheart and soul.

World leaders are now key to the success ofany Olympic bid. Communicating a steadfastcommitment to the IOCs ideals and missionis essential as confirmed by Tony Blairslobbying for London and President Lulaspowerful advocacy of Rio.

IOC politics are a major factor in theinvisible dynamics at play. In thiscontext, bid communicators recognisethe critical importance of the media indelivering messages to IOC members.It is clear that a highly-skilled and

experienced communications team isrequired to win an Olympic bid.

The economics of the Olympics are such that the IOC shows astatistical tendency to base its decision on the economic vitality of abid citys home country. Communicating this vitality is a paramountconsideration.


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The IOC has consistently stressed the need for continental diversitybut this factor alone is not an overriding consideration. Communicatinginternational stature is equally as persuasive.

The bidding city must clearly demonstrate how hosting the Olympicswill turn the Olympic ideal of social transformation into a permanentreality. Rio effectively communicated how hosting the games wouldenable the city, region and country to achieve their long termaspirations for the future.

The consistent factor is communication at all levels with thecommunities, stakeholders, consumers and participants involved in thegames.


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Rio de Janeiro sets the scene

On 2 October 2009 in Copenhagen, Rio de Janeiro wonthe right to host the 2016 Summer Games in alandslide victory over finalist Madrid.

From the bottom of my heart, I should say this is themost emotional day in my life," said Brazilian PresidentLuiz Inacio Lula da Silva. "Rio deserves it, and Brazildeserves it."

This will be the first time that the Summer Olympics

have been held in South America.

At the outset it was Chicago that was thefrontrunner and it was assumed that PresidentObamas visit to Copenhagen would seal thedeal. Rio's bid had been consistently criticisedby the IOC's own evaluation commission. Onpaper many of its elements appeared to rank itweakest of the four shortlisted cities.

But, Chicago received only 18 of the 94 votesavailable in the first round poll of IOC

delegates; Madrid came out top with 28, followed by Rio on 26.

Madrid's success in reaching the final round came after former IOCpresident Juan Antonio Samaranch made an emotional appeal.

"I know that I am very near the end of my time. I am, as you know 89years old. May I ask you to consider granting my country the honour andalso the duty to organise the games in 2016".


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Despite this powerful appeal, Rio almost secured the absolute majorityneeded to win outright in the second round, with 46 of the 95 votes cast.

Madrid came a distant second with 29, while Tokyo was eliminated afterreceiving 20. The final ballot saw Rio win by a comprehensive margin of66 votes to 32.

IOC president Jacques Rogge said Rio had presented the IOC "with a verystrong technical bid, built on a vision of the Games being a celebration ofthe athletes and sport, as well as providing the opportunity for the city,region and country to deliver their broader long-term aspirations for thefuture".

"The call to 'live your passion' clearly struck a chord with my fellow

members, and we now look forward to seeing Rio de Janeiro staging thefirst Olympic Games on thecontinent of South America," hesaid.

After the final vote, President Lulasaid: "The other countriesmade proposals. We presented

a heart and a soul.

Commentary

World leaders are now key to the success of any Olympic bid;witness Tony Blair's lobbying for London, Vladimir Putin's campaign forSochi and now Lula's powerful advocacy of Rio.

The International OlympicCommittee members like to becourted.Some - though clearly notmany - may have been impressedby President Obama's visit toCopenhagen but they wanted more

than just a flying visit and 25-minute meet and greet in the conferencecentre.

President Lula had been courting their vote for years. Through consistentcommunication he built the IOCs respect for his long-time commitment toRio's campaign.


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Rios bid was bolstered by Brazil's relative financial stability

throughout the global economic downturn.

The IOC shows a statistical tendency to base its decision on the economicvitality of a bid city's home country. Rio's projected expenses were thehighest among the four bid cities at more than $14 billion because ofthe number of new venues and infrastructure needed.

The need to maintain continentaldiversity.

"Rios bid was strong because it is the wish ofthe Olympic movement to show moreuniversality," Denis Oswald, IOC ExecutiveBoard member.

"It's an important message to send the SummerOlympics to a place that never had the OlympicGames. It's an important message to the rest ofthe world that it's possible to host the OlympicGames." Frankie Fredericks, Namibian IOCmember.

Politics mean the result is far from a foregone

conclusion

It is impossible for anyone to know whichcity will win a bid. "I actually feel reallysorry. Everybody was shocked about theresult. That's this kind of vote. It's morean accident because everybody expectedChicago and Rio in the end, everybody."Rene Fasel, IOC member, Switzerland.

"It was clear there was an effort to make sureRio got this, and the only meaningful threat toRio would have been Chicago, so all thefriends of Rio were urged to try and make sureChicago didn't get into that position," DickPound IOC member, Canada.

There's a lot of politics going on. This (host-city vote)isn't just on the merits." Bob Ctvrtlik, the USOC's VicePresident, International. "


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The potential contenders

Map of countries and cities considering bidding for the 2020

Olympic Games

Africa

With Rios 2016 award, Africa remains the only populated continent tohave never hosted the Games. When discussing the Japanese bid, theJapanese Olympic Committee head Yasuhiro Nakamori revealed "the IOC

suggested that if an African candidate emerged for 2020 they would bevery strong contenders".

South Africa

On July 13, 2010, twodays after the end ofthe FIFA World Cup inSouth Africa, SouthAfricas governing

Olympic body, the South African Sports Confederation and OlympicCommittee SASCOC, announced that it would formally oversee a nationalbid for the 2020 Olympic Games and encouraged potential South Africanhost cities to state their intention of being involved in the process.

Cape Town

Cape Town will most likely bid for the 2020Summer Olympic Games, and plans onbuilding on the foundation of the 2010 FIFAWorld Cup. The planned bid is supported bythe Cape Chamber of Commerce.


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Cape Town has hosted a number of World Championships in varioussports including hockey, fencing, Modern Pentathlon, cycling, rugby,

cricket and many others. Cape Town previously bid for the 2004 OlympicGames, placing third behind Rome and the winning city of Athens.Approximately 70% of the venues required for the Games will be in placeby 2013. On 28 July 2010, at a full Council meeting, Mayor Dan Platodescribed the Olympic Games as the "next logical step".

Durban

Durban's plans to host the 2020Summer Olympics were boosted by theIOC's selection of that city in 2008 as

the venue for the IOC GeneralAssembly's Congress in 2011. Actingchief executive of Durban TourismPerry Moodley intimated that hostingthe event was a tactical move in lightof the city's plans to bid to host aSummer Olympics.

On July 20, 2010, influential IOC member, Gerhard Heiberg, chairman ofthe committee's marketing commission, in relation to the 2020 Olympicbid, singled out Durban in stating that it will be time to consider Africa atsome point." On August 10, 2010, the Chief Executive Officer of the

Southern African Tourism Services Association SATSA, Michael Tatalias,endorsed Durban for a 2020 South African Olympic bid, stating thatDurban was South Africa's "best placed city to bid" for the Olympics. Inmid-August, 2010, Danny Jordaan, the Chief Executive Officer of the 2010FIFA World Cup Local Organising Committee, expressed cautious optimismabout Durban's bid to host the 2020 Olympic Games, stating that "Durbanhas what it takes" to host the Games.

However, Nawal El Moutawakel, head of the International OlympicCommittee's coordinating commission for Rio 2016 who also chaired thecoordinating commission for London 2012, told Reuters that Africa is

unlikely to host the Olympics for at least 20 years despite the success ofthe soccer World Cup in South Africa.

Rabat, Morocco

Rabat, the Moroccan capital, is expected to submit abid for the 2020 Olympics. Officials from Morocco areconfident that their capital will win the right to hostthe games; they chose Rabat as the bidding city, overthe much larger Casablanca, stating that Rabat ismore internationally significant. If a bid is submitted,it will be the first time Morocco has submitted a bid.


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Asia

Busan, South Korea

With the success of the 2002 AsianGames held in Busan, the city's mayorannounced on November 14, 2005 tothe Korean news agency Yonhap thatthey were planning to bid for the 2020Olympic Games. The official bid wasmade during the 17th APEC forum heldon November 18 and 19 in Busan.

However, its bid in 2020 may be jeopardized if Pyeongchang wins its third

bid for the 2018 Winter Olympics. South Korean capital Seoul hosted thegames in 1988.

Doha, Qatar

The IOC rejected Doha's bid for the2016 Summer Olympics, althoughfellow applicant and eventual host cityRio de Janeiro was accepted, despitethe Brazilian city's lower score on theIOC's evaluation of bids. While Doha

bid organizers accused the IOC of"closing the door on the Arab World",the IOC cited technical reasons for itsrejection of the bid, such as Doha'sinsistence of holding the games in October. On August 7, 2008, SheikhTamim Bin Hamad Al Thani, the Heir Apparent of Qatar, revealed that thestate will bid for the 2020 games. Sheikh Tamim, who is also theChairman of the Qatar Olympic Committee QOC, said that Qatar wasdetermined to learn from the lessons of its failed 2016 bid, and "bid forhosting the Olympic Games in 2020 as per set measures and standards."

Dubai, United Arab Emirates

Dubai has expressed great interestin a 2020 Olympic bid but has notformally announced it will bid.Dubai's hosting of Sportaccord2010 has been a great way to showoff Dubai's sport infrastructure.Dubai's ruler Sheikh Mohammedbin Rashid Al Maktoum said: "Wewill have to take an honest look at

our weaknesses as well as our strengths," Sheikh Mohammed said on April

25. "I can assure you of this, though: if we decide to make a bid for theOlympics, we will be in it to win."


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The Olympic Games, if awarded to Dubai,would be the first time an Olympics has

been held in a Middle East city, and thefirst time in an Islamic city. DubaisSports City development of 50 millionsquare feet, due for completion next year,and claimed to be the worlds first-everintegrated sporting city, couldaccommodate just about any event theOlympic Games needs.

Japan Tokyo

Soon after failing to win its bid to host the2016 Olympics, intentions were expressedto try again for 2020. Tokyo hosted the1964 Summer Olympics. Hiroshima andNagasaki expressed interest in a joint bidas well; however, Japan has ruled out thatjoint bid and intends to focus solely onTokyo's bid. Tokyo Governor ShintaroIshihara said Tokyo may allow Hiroshimaand Nagasaki to stage some events if the city is selected.

However, the 2020 Olympic Games Japanese Olympic Committee chief,

Tsunekazu Takeda, has expressed wariness after South Africa emerged asa new rival in Japans bid to host the 2020 Summer Olympics.

Europe

Budapest, Hungary

On 18 December 2008, theassembly of the City of Budapestunanimously accepted theproposal for the Act on the

Preparation of the BudapestOlympic Bid, prepared by theNGO Budapesti OlimpiaiMozgalom BOM. The proposal isto be presented to theParliament of Hungary.


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Istanbul, Turkey

Turkish government sports official Mehmet Atalaysaid that Istanbul has decided to launch anotherOlympic bid, believing its chances are muchstronger this time. Istanbul has four previousbids for the 2000, 2004, 2008 and 2012 SummerGames; it skipped the 2016 Games. Atalay said,"We didn't bid for 2016 because we were in apreparation period. ... We will keep on biddinguntil we get it.

Rome, Italy

On 2 October 2009, the ItalianOlympic Committee CONIconfirmed that Italy intends toput forward a bid for the 2020Summer Olympic Games. Shortlyafter the International OlympicCommittee IOC awarded Rio deJaneiro the Games for 2016, thePresident of CONI, GiovanniPetrucci, said: "The time has

come for an Italian bid for the 2020 Games. Rio de Janeiro's victory surelygives Italy the possibility for 2020."

The country hosted the 2006 Winter Olympics in Turin. Immediately afterPetrucci's announcement, Rome and Venice announced their candidaciesfor an Italian bid. Bari, Palermo and the Romagna region also put in bids,but they did not meet the minimum requirements: "Rome and Venice arethe only serious bidders, all the rest is just somuch talk", Petrucci said. On 19 May 2010, CONIbacked Rome over Venice as Candidate City forthe 2020 Summer Olympics, citing greaterexperience and already existing sport andhospitality facilities as crucial factors for thechoice.

Giovanni Alemanno, Mayor of Rome, has thrown his full backing behind aRome 2020 bid, saying: "The choice of Rio de Janeiro for the 2016 Gamesoffers a big opportunity to Italy and Rome for the next edition in 2020.More than half a century after the fantastic Games of 1960, we can dreamof bringing the Olympic rings back to the Italian capital." Rome previouslyhosted the 1960 Summer Olympics.


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Madrid, Spain

After failed attempts for both the 2012 and 2016 SummerOlympics, Madrid announced plans to bid for 2020 or2024. However, on July 24, 2010, Alberto Ruiz Gallardon,Mayor of Madrid, announced that Madrid was putting anybid for an Olympic Games on hold in order to help thecountry with its bid for the 2018 World Cup finals and thatno decision over a third attempt to hold the OlympicGames would be taken in the near future.

Lisbon, Portugal

The country's capital of Lisbon intends toenter for the 2020 competition. Typically, fora city to be considered eligible for hostingsuch a mammoth event as the Olympics, itmust have already somewhat proven itselfon the international scene. Portugal hasalready submitted its bids to host the 2018and 2022 World Cup FootballChampionships, and if it could win the bidfor the 2018 World Cup, such an accomplishment would improve Lisbonand Portugals chances of hosting a Summer Olympics. Lisbon has madethe final plans for a new airport. The new airport, which will be located inthe suburb of Alcochete, is to be completed by 2017 and will have thecapacity to handle 40 million passengers annually. Once complete, it willbe one the most sophisticated airports in the world.

Saint Petersburg, Russia

Governor Valentina Matviyenko hasannounced an intention to bid, havingdiscussed the plan with the head of the ROC;governmental support has not been

confirmed. 2024 is also a possibility. SaintPetersburg bid for the 2004 SummerOlympics but did not make the short list.

Bucharest, Romania

On 24 August 2010, Bucharest Mayor Sorin Oprescuannounced intentions to host the 2020 SummerOlympic Games in Bucharest. This comes a few yearsafter the Government announced a plan to bid for the2022 Winter Olympics in Prahova Valley.


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North America

By 2020, 24 years will have passed since the 1996 Summer Olympics inAtlanta, making it the continent with the longest waiting time since lasthosting the Games except for Africa, which has never hosted.

Mexico

Guadalajara is hosting the 2011 Pan American Games while Monterrey hasexpressed interest in a sports festival for several years. The MexicanOlympic Committee (MOC) will announce the Mexican candidate city in2012. Mexico City hosted the 1968 Summer Olympics.

Guadalajara

Guadalajara 2020, in conjunction with the Jalisco state government,supports a strategic project to consider a bid for 2020. The plans includethe construction of several sports venues and ambitious urbandevelopment projects such as the JVC Center and the Chivas Stadium.Started in 1995, Guadalajara 2020 counts its successful bid for the 2011Pan American Games as part of the strategy to gain experience ininternational sport events and develop world class sport infrastructure.Guadalajara was chosen by the MOC as the applicant city for the 2014Summer Youth Olympics.

Monterrey

Monterrey considered a bid for the 2016Games, but the Mexican Olympic Committee

(MOC) did notsupport the bid.Felipe "El Tibio"Muoz, President ofthe MOC,announced thatsome cities in

Mexico likeMonterrey will endeavour to gain support tobid for the 2020 games. In August 2008,

Nuevo Leon's governor gave his support for a possible bid. In February2009, plans were announced to build the Estadio Internacional Monterrey,a 85,000 capacity stadium.


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Toronto, Canada

The Canadian Olympic Committee beganworking on a potential bid for the 2020 or2024 games for Toronto in July 10, 2007.This would be Toronto's third bid for theSummer Olympics, after unsuccessful bidsfor the 1996 and 2008 games. Torontohas not hosted an international sportingevent since the city hosted the 1976Summer Paralympics. With the success ofthe 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouverand Toronto's ongoing preparations to

host the 2015 Pan American Games, both factors are said to strengthentheir 2020 Olympic bid.

United States of America

Several cities were considering abid for the 2020 SummerOlympic Games. Some sourcesperceive that the United Stateshad a better chance of success,as both New York and Chicagofailed in their respective bids for

the 2012 and 2016 games.However, during the VancouverOlympics, USOC chief executive

Scott Blackmun said that the US has no plans tobid at this time, citing that the IOC "doesn't wantthe games to be in the United States"and thatpotential cities in the United States cannot affordOlympic bids just to be spurned like Chicago andNew York were.


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Oceania

Brisbane, Australia

Brisbane has been pre-selected by theAustralian Olympic Committee as thenext most likely Australian bid city for2020 or 2024. This has been endorsedby Queensland Premier Anna Bligh andBrisbane Lord Mayor Campbell Newman.The city previously bid for the 1992Olympics, coming 3rd to Barcelona and

Paris.

Past host cities

1976 - Montreal, Canada1980 - Moscow, Russia1984 - Los Angeles, United States1988 - Seoul, South Korea1992 - Barcelona, Spain1996 - Atlanta, United States

2000 - Sydney, Australia2004 - Athens, Greece2008 - Beijing, China2012 - London, United Kingdom2016 - Rio de Janeiro, Brazil


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The 2016 Results

121st SessionInternational Olympic CommitteeOctober 2, 2009, in Bella Center, Copenhagen, Denmark.

City Nation Round 1 Round 2Round 3

Rio de Janeiro Brazil 26 46 66

Madrid Spain 28 29 32

Tokyo Japan 22 20

Chicago USA 18


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Qualitative selection factors drawn from

past bids experience

2012 Olympic Bid - London

The 2012 bid culminated at the election held on July6, 2005 at the IOC session in Singapore. It wasconsidered the best contested race in Olympic bidhistory and included five world capitals: London,Madrid, Moscow, New York and Paris.

The bid committees brought high-profile delegatesincluding politicians and celebrities. World leaders included British PMTony Blair, French President Jacques Chirac and Russian PresidentVladimir Putin and among other dignitaries were Hilary Clinton and DavidBeckham. A record number of media personnel and delegates attended.

While most considered Paris the frontrunner, last minute and aggressivemarketing tactics by London helped push the British city to a narrow fourvote victory. Madrid came third, New York fourth and Moscow fifth.

The key to London's victory was the appointmentof sportsman Seb Coe to lead the bid and

businessman Keith Mills to market itinternationally. Although the bid was slapped onthe wrist by the IOC for being a bit too aggressiveat times - the strategy paid off.

Paris and Madrid mounted excellent campaigns butfell short at the end. New York designed their bid around a yet-to-be-approved new Olympic Stadium in Manhattan's West Side but approvalwas denied just days before the bid forcing organizers to scramble andcome up with plan B, a less desirable Queens location for the stadium.

Moscow was an outsider from the beginning and failed to impress.

The promise of transforming aforgotten corner of London was thewinning element of the citys bid tohost the Olympic Games.Disconnected East End communitieswould be linked with one another andwith the rest of London. Meanwhile, asafe and well connected area of newaffordable housing would be created,with a massive new area of parkland on its doorstep. London would turn

the Olympic ideal of social transformation into a reality.


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2016 Olympic Bid - Rio

It was claimed that Rio de Janeiro won the bid tohost the 2016 Summer Olympic Games becauseSochi, host of the 2014 Winter Olympics, pavedthe way.

"Sochi opened a gateway to the Olympic futurefor Rio and other emerging countries. There is asignificant shift at work in the Olympicmovement in favour of emerging countries such

as Russia and Brazil.Dmitry Chernyshenko, Chief Executive Officer ofSochi 2014.

It had been thought by somecommentators that theInternational OlympicCommittee (IOC) choose Rioover Chicago, Madrid and Tokyobecause no South Americancountry has ever hosted anOlympic Games before. Theconsensus however is that the

key factor determining Rios success was the countrys ability to

communicate successfully that Rio was ready. That message resonatedwith the IOC. The creation of the G-20 shortly before the IOC vote on the2016 Games also added to the victory. Brazil will be the fifth largesteconomy by 2016, from 10th now, according to the World Bank.

This clearly demonstrates President Lula and Brazil are now at the toptable in international affairs.


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APPENDIX

The Bid Index


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Winning the Olympic Games in 2020 23

The Bid Index

BidIndex is a mathematical modeldeveloped by GamesBids.com thatwhen applied to an Olympic Bid,produces a number that can be usedto rate a bid relative to pastsuccessful bids - and possibly gaugeits potential success.

This complex model is a result of months of research and development byanalysts with expertise in statistics, mathematics and the Olympic Bidprocess. Information for BidIndex is obtained from both public and insidesources.

The primary model looks at the actual Olympic bids voted on by theInternational Olympic Committee. GamesBids.com BidIndex will alsoanalyse selected bids with the National Olympic Committee (NOC) model.These are qualifying bids conducted by the NOC's

While it is impossible for anyone to know which city will win a bid,BidIndex combines the current geopolitical and technical status of a bidand projects how it might compete based on past voting patterns. Since

the IOC does not always pick the best quality bid, BidIndex evaluatesother important factors such as Geopolitics, IOC politics, public supportand other things considered to have an effect on the IOC voters.

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