wind power in lebanon; the blades are finally...

Wind Power in Lebanon; the Blades are Finally Turning!

Cedro Exchange Issue Number 3 - January 2013

Guest Authors; Rayan Kassis, Middle East Director, VESTAS, Rayan Kassis, [email protected], with a contribution from Pierre El Khoury, Director of the Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC), UNDP Project Manager, [email protected]

1. Introduction CEDRO Exchange Issue 3 deals with one of the most mature renewable energy technologies, onshore wind power, from a general, technical and economic point of view, tailored to the Lebanese case. Wind power in Lebanon is taking shape and the first wind farm should be commissioned before the end of 2015, if all goes to plan. The Exchange will indicate the importance of wind power to the energy mix, Lebanon’s potential for wind power generation, the expected economics of wind farms, issues of power variability, capacity credit, and environmental protection, and, finally, a note on the Lebanese government’s roadmap for wind power production.

3. Why Wind?

Originally wind power is merited as a source of ‘green energy’ to counter greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the energy sector while ensuring power delivery. This benefit is clearly shows in Figure 2, where wind power releases the least GHG emissions relative to other power generating sources on life-cycle analysis merit.

However there are also other important key comparative advantages for wind, such as economic costs (Figure 3 and see Section 6 for the Lebanese case), important value chains for the local economy (Figure 4), relatively lower water use (Figure 5), and relatively quicker lead times (lead time is the time required for a power plant to be commissioned after original consent).

Figure 1. Yearly global cumulative capacity

Figure 2. Comparative wind power life-cycle GHG emissions

Source: Singapore IEW Conference Key Takeaways, November 2009

Figure 3. 2009 Quarter 3 Levelised Cost of Energy $/MWh (VESTAS Presentation, 2012, from FPL Energy 2008, IEA 2008, EWEA 2009)

2. Global, regional and country-specific capacity

By the end of 2011, a total of 238 GW of wind power capacity existed across the world, up from 6.1 GW in 1996 (REN21, 2012) as shown in Figure 1. Over the period from the end of 2006 and up to the end of 2011, annual growth rates of cumulative wind power capacity averaged 26% (REN21, 2012). Yet for the Middle East and North Africa, the total wind power capacity installed, as of end of 2011, was 1.093 GW (Global Wind Energy Council, 2012), a mere 0.38% of the global capacity. In Lebanon, the current (2012) wind power capacity is zero (excluding microwind turbines), although the Lebanese Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW) has indicated in 2010 that 60-100 MW of wind power will be installed in the short-term (MEW, 2010) – kindly see Box 1.

Figure 4. Skills-transfer takes place throughout the value chain (VESTAS presentation, 2012)

Skills-tansfer takes place throughout the value chain. Figure 5. Water consumed to produce 5 MWh of electricity (VESTAS presentation; 2012)

4. Wind energy and power extraction

Wind energy is an indirect form of solar energy where temperature differences caused by different solar irradiance levels originate winds. The sun heats up air masses in the atmosphere. The spherical shape of the Earth, the Earth’s rotation and seasonal and regional fluctuations of the solar irradiance cause spatial air pressure differentials (quaschning, 2005).

In order to estimate the amount of energy generated by the turbine, the amount of potential energy in the wind must be determined. The gross instantaneous power of the wind, PG, may be determined as follows (Allen et al., 2008);

where ρ is the density of air, A the cross-sectional area in which the air is passing through, and u

the velocity in meters per second (Allen et al., 2008). The density of air is a function of the air pressure and temperature, both of which vary with altitude and broad meteorological conditions. The maximum power that can be extracted from the wind is 16/27 (59 per cent) of the gross power, P_G, known as the Betz limit (Allen et al., 2008). However, due to aerodynamic and power conversion losses, turbines currently extract less than the Betz limit. Power curves are commonly used to communicate the power generation capabilities of a turbine with varying wind speed. Figure. 6 shows the power curve for a VESTAS V90 3.0 MW turbine (VESTAS, 2009), assuming an air density of 1.15 kg/m3, which is the approximate air density of wind-rich areas of eastern Akkar in Lebanon (CSTB & Solarnet, 2012).

Figure 6. Power Curve for a V90 Vestas Wind Turbine

The shape of the wind-speed-power curve is influenced by many factors such as the rotor swept area, the choice of aerofoil, the number of blades, the blade shape, the optimum tip

speed ratio, and the speed of rotation known through the cut-in, rated and shut down speed (Taylor, 2004). The power curve is coupled with the wind speed frequency distribution at a particular site to come out with the total energy produced from the wind turbine, as per the example wind speed frequency distribution shown in Figure 7 from one particular site in North Lebanon. Data on wind speed was collected at 10 meter height and yet was scaled up to 80 m at wind turbine hub height through Equation 1 (Quaschning, 2005).

Wind speed velocity (V) at 80 m height (h2) is equal to velocity at measured height (h1) corrected by the roughness length, Zo. Zo was selected, in this example, to be 0.11, as indicated in the wind atlas for the area (GL Garrad Hassan, 2011). It reflects the surface roughness and therefore the friction that the wind will be exposed to on land. Table 1 gives indicative figures of these values on various terrains.

Figure 7. Wind speed frequency distribution at 10 and 80 meter height from 1 site in North Lebanon

Ground Class

Roughness length Zo in m

Description

Sea 0.0002 Open seaSmooth 0.005 Mud flats Open 0.03 Open flat terrain,

pasture Open to rough

0.1 Agricultural land with a low

population

Rough 0.25 Agricultural land with a high

population Very rough

0.5 Park landscape with bushes and

treesClosed 1 Regular obstacles

(woods, village, suburb)

Inner city

2 Centers of big cities with low and

high buildings

Table 1. Roughness Lengths Zo for different ground classes (Quaschning, 2005)

5. Wind Resource and Potential in Lebanon

The National Wind Atlas of Lebanon, published by the UNDP-CEDRO project early 2011, underwent a mesoscale and microscale modeling for the entire country to produce a wind map at heights of 50 m and 80 m above ground level and at a resolution of 100 m (GL Garrad Hassan, 2011). The study’s main objective was twofold; the first was site prospecting, meaning the study helps to identify sites where further due diligence, in the form of local wind resource measurements for example, is warranted (see Map 1 for onshore wind speed at 80 meter hub height). This is crucial for the private or public sector in order to secure land, either through a rent agreement or direct purchase, for wind farms. The second objective of the study was to indicate to policy makers how much potential Lebanon has in terms of wind power production. The study established constraints where wind farm development cannot occur, such as areas of high population density, of high political instability, military sites, commercial interests (e.g. mining, fisheries etc…), civilian aviation sites, areas in close proximity to radar or telecommunication sites, national parks, and conservation areas (e.g. Cedar forests, historic sites, etc…). Adopting assumptions on installation density and minimum wind speeds required, the wind atlas indicates that Lebanon has the potential onshore wind power capacity of 6.1 GW. A

perturbation analysis was performed, and the worst case scenario assumed the reduction of all modeled average wind speeds by 10% and a maximum terrain slope where wind farms can

be established reduced from 14 degrees to 8 degrees, the potential is reduced to 1.5 GW. Please see the UNDP-CEDRO publication for more information on the wind atlas.

cost and energy output values, among other parameters. The economics of wind farm is adopted from the paper; “Integrating wind energy into the Lebanese electricity system; Preliminary analysis on capacity credit and economic performance” (Harajli et al., 2011). The cost breakdown of a typical wind farm is shown in Figure 8.

Map 1. Wind speeds at 80 m height (GL Garrad Hassan, 2011)

6. Wind Power Economics in Lebanon

Wind power is quickly becoming a viable and cost-competitive choice for energy generation. In other words, wind power has reached grid-parity, particularly if a carbon tax exists on conventional power generation units. The calculation of the approximate expected costs of wind farms in Lebanon is subject to many uncertainties due mostly to the fact that Lebanon, to date, has not established one wind farm upon which to base the input

The obtained levelised cost of wind farms in Lebanon, in the more favorable sites, is $c7.5 - $c8.1 per kWh (average $c7.8/kWh) with a 10% discount rate (accounting for time value of money). With a 5% discount rate, the levelised costs drop to $c4.7 – $c5.3/kWh (average $c5/kWh). These are the levelised costs, not to be confused with the power purchasing agreement (PPA) ‘price’ that the wind farm developer will ask from the government of Lebanon. The PPA price is expected to be higher than the levelised costs as it will integrate risks and profits. The levelised costs of wind energy obtained are compared to the present value (PV) of benefits from integrating wind power. These benefits include the reduced need for conventional capacity (Cc), discounted (r) savings on fuel (SF), and discounted damage costs of avoided emissions (SE) through the expression (Harajli et al., 2011);

Conventional capacity displaced is the capacity credit of wind, indicated in Section 7. Although Lebanon is expected to rely two-thirds on natural gas by 2015, according to the MEW Policy Paper, fuel oil will remain the input for the rest of the conventional supplied power plants. Therefore, and according to the cost merit of power generation, wind power will displace fuel oil generation in 2015 onwards. The price of fuel oil was $368/ton in 2008 (World Bank, 2008), however the current (as of January, 2013) price of fuel oil is approximately $1000/ton (EDL communication, January 2013). Assuming 270g/kWh efficiency for fuel oil generating

plants, and a social cost of carbon of $65 per ton (El-Fadel et al., 2010), Figure 9 lists the benefits per kWh of wind power integration in comparison to the calculated levelised cost estimates (Harajli et at., 2011, with upgraded fuel cost assumptions).

Figure 9. Benefits of wind power integration as factor of discount rate, fuel prices, and the social

cost of carbon

With a 5% discount rate, the benefits of wind power integration are evident given that the present value of the benefits with any fuel price assumption, and with or without including the social cost of carbon savings, are greater than the levelised cost of wind power. With a 10% discount rate, fuel oil prices and internalizing the social cost of carbon play a determining role in the present value of wind power in Lebanon. Without accounting for the carbon benefits, wind power benefits outweigh its levelised cost only from a fuel oil price of $700 per ton and above, whereas wind power benefits outweigh its levelised costs with carbon benefits with a fuel price of at least $500 per ton.

7. Dealing with Variability

Wind power is variable; it is absent below cut-in wind speeds of around 4 m/s, it is shut down in storm conditions when wind speeds are above 25 m/s due to safety concerns, and it is subject to large changes in output between these two conditions (Laughton, 2007). From the viewpoint of the power system operation, EDL in the Lebanese case, the common issues that will pose a challenge, from international experience, when integrating wind power into the grid are, among others, the uncertainties in predicting power availability at any given

Figure 8. Cost structure percentage distribution of a typical 2 MW wind turbine installed in Europe

(EWEA, 2009)

Av. LC (5% DR) Av. LC (10% DR)

time, leading to scheduling difficulties, the magnitude of fluctuations in power output and the subsequent consequences on voltage and frequency stability, and the implications or impacts of wind power on existing thermal power plants, such as impacts on efficiency of the conventional plants’ operations.

In a study by UKERC (2006), it is indicated that the extra costs of integrating variable renewable energy such as wind are never more than $c0.8/kWh when renewable energy is below 20% of the energy mix, with values of additional costs more likely to be in the order of $c0.3 - $c0.5/kWh, as is the case in the UK grid (assuming exchange rate of 1 British Pound = 1.6 USD). These additional costs are mostly due to additional system balancing reserve requirements (i.e., rapid short term adjustments needed to balance fluctuations from minutes to hours), system margin requirements or reliability implications (i.e., ability to meet peak demand), and efficiency losses in conventional plants (UKERC, 2006).

For the Lebanese context, the current issue of integrating renewable energy sources should not be a problem. This is because all generation will be taken up by the grid and by demand without impacting conventional plants, given the demand-supply deficit. Only when sufficient conventional generating capacity is introduced into the grid, as prescribed in the MEW Policy Paper, should the issue of renewables impacts on the national electricity system be given more focus.

A final note on variability of wind is that of capacity credit. The capacity credit of wind energy is sometimes approximated by its capacity factor with low penetration levels of wind into an electricity system, yet decreases with increasing penetration of wind (Laughton, 2007). The capacity factor is the percentage of wind energy output actually produced relative to the energy produced had the wind system been operating at rated output 100% of the time. For increasing penetrations of wind into a power system, estimated to begin when wind penetration is above 1%, other approaches are required to calculate capacity credit of wind that may include numerical probabilistic

models, analytical probability models, or may be approximated through derived analytical formulas (Harajli et al. 2011)

Harajli et al. (2011) obtained the capacity credit of integrating 99MW, 249MW, and 498MW of wind power into the Lebanese grid, using calculated capacity factors of one site over three years (2007-2009). Results are shown in Figure 10, where the capacity credit of 99MW, 249MW, and 498MW is 36.4%, 32% and 26%, respectively.

Figure 10. Capacity credit as a function of wind power penetration levels and capacity factors

In other words, integrating 99, 249 and 498MW of wind power can displace 36MW, 80MW, and 129.5MW of conventional plant, respectively. These values are important when planning for new power capacity and capacity margin requirements. Another important note is that dispersing wind farms across the country will increase capacity credits, and should, therefore, be an objective to follow.

8. Environmental Impacts of wind farms

The UNDP-CEDRO project published a guideline report on ‘environmental impact assessment (EIA) of wind farm developments’ (Biotope, 2011). Every wind farm development requires the passing or success of the EIA to truly prove to be a ‘green’ source of energy. This is particularly the case in Lebanon, as wind-rich areas in Lebanon are also considered the

‘second most important flyway for migratory and soaring birds in the world’ (please see Birdlife and Society for the Protection of Nature in Lebanon (SPNL) publications). Potential environmental impacts from wind farms are outlined in Figure 11 (non-exhaustive);

The impacts listed in Figure 11 all have mitigation measures that begin, in extreme cases, from site selection change, and then to variation of turbine location within same site, to turbine output curtailment (for example in times of passage of migratory birds), and so forth. The important thing is to make sure all negative measures are well mitigated or avoided and all positive measures, particularly focused on socio-economic benefits that make part of the EIA, are well supported (Biotope, 2011).

9. Lebanon’s Road Map

With the 1500 MW generation deficit, a large-environmental footprint for energy production, a highly favorable wind regime in the country in many areas, Lebanon has set itself on track of developing wind farms. Please check Box 1 for a brief overview of the Ministry of Energy and Water’s approach to wind farm development.

10. Conclusion

Wind power is a ‘no brainer’! That is the conclusion that can be made when taking into account the Lebanese resource assessment results, technical viability, and the general economic performance of large wind farms. It is technically viable and economically feasible, and with some attention to grid connection issues and environmental impacts, wind

power can significantly contribute to energy security in Lebanon. It is advised, at the end, that Lebanon does not follow a one-stop shop, yet begins a series of large-scale wind energy penetration that can, eventually, reach at least 10% of generating capacity, which, post 2015, is estimated to be 5000 MW. Therefore 500 MW of wind power is easily achievable. Let that be the aim.

Category Birds, bats, and soaring and migratory birds (Flora (esp. during constructionFauna (esp. during construction)Noise Landscape impacts Shadow flicker Cultural assets impact

Box 1. The Lebanese Government’s Wind Power Road MapPierre El Khoury, Director of the Lebanese Center for Energy Conservation (LCEC), UNDP Project Manager

Back in 2009, Lebanon has committed itself to achieve the target of reaching 12% of renewable energy by 2020. In order to reach this goal, different renewable energy technologies need to be developed, including wind energy.

The basis for the Lebanese Government’s wind power road map is in the “Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector” prepared by the Ministry of Energy and Water. Approved by the Lebanese Government on 21 June 2010, the policy paper is made of 42 action steps, with action 1.f aiming to “introduce wind power via the private sector by building wind farms (60 – 100 MW)”.

The set target of 60-100 MW of the policy paper is an achievable one especially that the National Wind Atlas of Lebanon has shown a potential of 1,500 MW of wind energy in the country with an easy possibility to install 400 to 500 MW by 2020.

In addition to the policy paper, the National Energy Efficiency Action Plan (NEEAP) 2011-2014 for Lebanon has been adopted by the Council on Ministers in November 2011, setting a national action plan for renewable energy and energy efficiency to achieve the target of 12% renewable energy. Initiative 6 of the NEEAP aims at promoting electricity generation from wind power and targets building the first wind farm in Lebanon and launching IPP with the private sector in the coming years. A more detailed renewable energy strategy is currently under preparation. The initial goal is to introduce wind power via the private sector by building a wind farm of up to 100 MW. The longer-term goal is to continue the development of wind energy to reach capacity of 400 to 500 MW by 2020.

In 2013, the Ministry of Energy and Water is launching a request for proposals (RFP) based on the same financing model used for the power rental agreement applied for the floating fuel oil power plants (barges). This initiative will most probably lead to the construction of the first wind farm in Lebanon.

DISCLAIMER

REFERENCES

- Allen, S. R., Hammond, G.P., & McManus, M.C., 2008. Energy analysis and environmental life-cycle assessment of a microwind turbine, Proceedings of the Institute of Mechanical Engineering, Journal of Power and Energy, Part A, Vol 222, Special Issue Paper, pp. 669-684.

- Biotope, 2011. Environmental Impact Assessment of Wind Farm Development, a report prepared by Biotope for the UNDP-CEDRO project.

- CSTB & Solarnet 2012. Wind resource assessment for distributed electricity generation for Lebanon, a report for the UNDP-CEDRO Project, Beirut.

- EWEA 2009. The Economics of Wind Energy, A report by the European Wind Energy Association, Brussels.

- GL Garrad Hassan, 2011. The National Wind Atlas of Lebanon. A study prepared for the UNDP CEDRO Project, UNDP-CEDRO, Beirut.

- Global Wind Energy Council, 2011. Global Wind Report, Annual Market Update, 2011, http://www.gwec.net/.

- H.Harajli, E. Abou Jaoudeh, J. Obeid, W. Kodieh, M.Harajli, 2011. Integrating wind energy into the Lebanese electricity system; Preliminary analysis on capacity credit and economic performance, World Engineers’ Convention 2011, September 4-9, Geneva.

- Laughton, M., 2007, Variable Renewables and the Grid: An Overview, In “Renewable Electricity and the Grid; The Challenge of Variability”, ed. Boyle, G., Earthscan, London.

- Lebanese Ministry of Energy and Water (MEW), 2010. Policy Paper for the Electricity Sector, Beirut, Lebanon.

- Quaschning, V. 2005. Understanding Renewable Energy Systems, Earthscan, London.

- REN21, 2012. Renewables 2012; Global Status Report, Paris; http://www.ren21.net/.

- Taylor, D., 2004. Wind Energy, In; Renewable Energy: Power for a Sustainable Future, 2nd Edition, Boyle, G. (editor), Oxford University Press, Oxford.

- VESTAS 2009. General Specification; V90–3.0 MW VCS 50 Hz, Document no.: 0000-5450 V04, Denmark.

- Singapore IEW Conference Key Takeaways, November 2009

- UKERC 2006. The Costs and Impacts of Intermittency; An assessment of the evidence on the costs and impacts of intermittent generation on the British electricity network, UKERC, London.

Copyright © UNDP/CEDRO - 2011

The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP). The Consultant does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this report. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on maps and images in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the Consultant or UNDP concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. The United Nations Development Programme and the Consultant assume no responsibility of any kind for the use that may be made of the information contained in this report.”

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wind power in lebanon; the blades are finally...

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