wind energy technology: a global opportunity for our environment, economic development and energy...
TRANSCRIPT
Wind Energy Technology:
A Global Opportunity for our Environment, Economic
Development and Energy Security
Randall SwisherExecutive Director (Retired)
American Wind Energy Association
Presentation Overview
● Electric Industry Basics
● Wind Technology Basics
● A Brief History
● Wind’s Current Market Status
● What is Wind’s Potential?
● What are the Challenges?
Electric Electric Industry Industry BasicsBasics
Sources of U.S. Electricity2008 Share of Net Generation by Energy Source*
● Coal: 48.5%● Natural Gas: 21.3%● Nuclear: 19.7%● Hydropower: 6.1%● Wind: 1.4%● Petroleum: 1.1%● Other: 1.9%
*Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration
What is the common characteristic of these generating sources?
What role does each play?Regional differences?Operational characteristics?
Power System Operations
• Supply and demand must match at all times• Demand and supply are both variable and uncertain. • Grid operators hold generation in reserve:
• Regulation reserves • Load-following reserves • Contingency reserves
• Reserves are shared for all sources of variability
Wind Wind Technology Technology BasicsBasics
What’s Inside a Nacelle?
Advances in Power Electronics
● Modern wind turbines are equipped with power electronics.
● They process over 200 types of data, from wind speeds and oil temperature to voltage dips on the grid.
● An entire wind farm can be monitored from a laptop.
Bottom Line: 1981-2000 = 124x the energy, 20x the cost;
1981 1985 1990 1996 1999 2000 Rotor (Meter) 10 17 27 40 50 71 KW 25 100 225 550 750 1,650 Total Cost $65 $165 $300 $580 $730 $1,300 Cost/kW $2,600 $1,650 $1,333 $1,050 $950 $790 MWh 45 220 550 1,480 2,200 5,600
20 Years of Wind Technology Development
Economies of Scale Drive Down Wind Cost
Today’s Turbines are Big!
● Hub Height:
60-100 meters
(197-328 feet)● Rotor Diameter:
70-100 meters
(230-328 feet)● Total Weight of
Turbine:
230 - 340 tons
59.6
80
How big is a V80 2.0 MW
This picture shows how big a V80 2.0 MW is compared with a Boeing 747 JUMBO JET
How much Electricity does a 1.5 MW Wind Turbine Produce?
● A 1.5 Megawatt (MW) wind turbine should generate about 5 million kWh annually.*
● Using national averages, that is equivalent to the electric needs of about 500 homes.
*35% capacity factor
Power in the Wind (W/m2)
Density = P/(RxT) P - pressure (Pa) R - specific gas constant (287 J/kgK) T - air temperature (K)
= 1/2 x air density x swept rotor area x (wind speed)3
A V3
Area = r2Instantaneous Speed
(not mean speed)
kg/m3 m2 m/s
Bottom Line: 12 mph wind has 70% more power than 10 mph wind
The Wind Industry: The Wind Industry: A Brief HistoryA Brief History
In the 1980s, the U.S. led the World in Wind Technology
● The first successful windfarms were established in 1981 in California
● Many U.S. turbine manufacturers were established in the early 80s
● By 1989, the U.S. was home to 90% of the world’s installed wind capacity – almost all in California
But We Turned our Backs on the Opportunity
● The DOE Wind R&D budget was cut 90% through the 1980s
● The wind investment tax credit was abruptly ended in 1986• Most U.S. turbine
manufacturers went out of business
• No new U.S. wind market emerged until 1997 – Iowa and Minnesota
Europe Took the Lead in the 1990s
● Strong market incentives in Denmark, Germany and Spain led to a thriving turbine manufacturing industry• Germany was the largest single market until
2008• This European leadership made possible
wind’s current competitiveness
Today, the Global Industry has Three Key Markets
● Europe – 66,000 MW (end of 2008)• Most manufacturers based in Europe
● North America – 27,500 MW• The U.S. is now the largest single market, and
all major global companies want to participate● Asia – 25,000 MW
• Chinese market growing most quickly, and establishing a strong manufacturing base
2009 Market OutlookThe U.S. Wind Market TodayThe U.S. Wind Market Today
U.S. is World Leader in Wind Power
With over 31,OOO MW, the U.S. is now the #1
wind energy producer in the world
U.S. Leads World in Installed Wind Capacity
• The U.S. overtook Germany in 2008 with the most installed wind power capacity
Source: AWEA
5,000 MW
10,000 MW
15,000 MW
20,000 MW
25,000 MW
Annual Additions
Cumulative Capacity
2008 Installed: 8,545 MW2008 Total: 25,400 MW
Record Breaking Installation and Growth
Source: AWEA
Ten yearannualaveragegrowth rate of29%
Percentage of Generation Added by YearWind is #2 source for past four years
• 8,558 MW added in 2008
• 42% of all new generating facilities added in 2008 were wind power plants
U.S. Wind Power Capacity (MW)
Alaska3
California2,517
Colorado1,068
Iowa2,790
Minnesota1,752
New Mexico497
North Dakota
714Oregon1,067
Penn.361
Texas7,116
Wyoming676
Washington1,375
South Dakota
187
Oklahoma708
Illinois915
Ohio7
Kansas815
Wisconsin395
Michigan129
Hawaii63
WV330
New York832
VT 6
Tennessee29
Total 25,170 MW
Nebraska73
MA5
Montana272
Idaho75
NJ8Utah
20
Under 100 MW
100 MW-500 MW
Over 1,000 MW
Missouri163
Indiana131
Maine47
NH 25
RI1
Source: AWEA, January 2009
Market Drivers Contributing to Wind’s Growth
● Economics - Wind competes well in many regions● Federal and State Policies● Wind’s Environmental Benefits● The New Energy Economy - Jobs● Public Support● Other major generation sources constrained
• Coal’s carbon risk• Gas price volatility• Nuclear capital costs/perceived risk
Source: FERC, Increasing Costs in Electric Markets, 2008
Wind Power is Cost-Competitive
Estimated Capital Cost of New Generation
Cost of Energy: Standard & Poor’s, 2007
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
$110
$120
$130
Coal (PC) Coal (PC)w/CCS
Coal(IGCC)
Coal(IGCC)w/CCS
NaturalGas (CC)
NaturalGas (CC)w/ CCS
Nuclear Wind
Co
st o
f E
ne
rgy
($/M
Wh
)
Interconnection Queues Are Cloggedwith Wind Projects: Nearly 300 GW!
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Wind Natural Gas Coal Nuclear Solar Other
Na
me
pla
te C
ap
aci
ty (
GW
) Entered Queue in 2008 Total in Queue at end of 2008
2008 Wind Market Report; LBL
Growing the Growing the Wind Industry:Wind Industry:
What’s the Potential?What’s the Potential?
20% Wind Energy by 2030
The U.S. possesses sufficient and affordable wind resources to obtain at least 20% of its electricity from wind by the year 2030.
U.S. Department of Energy, May 2008
20% Wind Energy by 2030
Wind capacity has already doubled in the past three years
8,300 MW -- 42% of new U.S. capacity -- added in 2008
Job Projections Under 20% Report
• Over 500,000 total jobs would be supported by the wind industry
Source: U.S. DOE, 20% Wind Energy by 2030
CO2 Reductions From Electricity Sector
Source: U.S. DOE, 20% Wind Energy by 2030
02006 2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
No New Wind Scenario CO2 emissions 20% Wind Scenario CO2 emissionsUSCAP path to 80% below today’s levels by 2050
Challenges to Challenges to Achieving Achieving
Wind’s Wind’s PotentialPotential
Key Barriers to Achieving 20% Wind
1. Immediate Need to fix the financial system
2. Need for long-term stable federal policy
3. Need for transmission infrastructure
● Need a stable long-term federal policy
• Long-term federal production tax credit (PTC)
• Federal renewable energy standard (RES)
• Climate policy
Lack of Stable Policy Inhibits Investment
Transmission Infrastructure
● The lack of transmission infrastructure is the single greatest long-term strategic constraint facing the wind industry.
● There is a growing recognition of this barrier by policymakers
• Link areas with vast supplies of renewables to areas of high electricity demand green power superhighways
• Improve grid operations
Green Power Superhighways
● Wind is an energy resource, not a capacity resource ● Take the wind when it blows, rely on the utility’s hundreds
of other power plants when it doesn’t● As wind takes a larger role, the electric system will add
more flexible resources . . . • Demand-response• Efficient gas-fired turbines• Incremental hydro• Energy storage
● And it will consolidate control areas and use generating resources more efficiently
● Storage is not necessary to reach 20% wind
What do you do when the wind doesn’t blow?
Strong Winds are on the Horizon
The Future Looks Bright for Wind Power