WIND ENERGYIs there a Latvian Master Plan?

CHRISTIAN KJÆRChief Executive Officer

European Wind Energy Association

SSE Riga, 4 December 2008

© EWEA/L. Benoist

WHAT IS THE EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY ASSOCIATION?

EWEA is the voice of the wind industry, actively promoting the utilisation of wind power in Europe and worldwide.

Resources are focussed on lobbying, communication and policy activities, and responding to enquiries from our member organisations.

MORE THAN 500 MEMBERS FROM OVER 45 COUNTRIES

• Manufacturers covering 90% of the world wind power market

• Component suppliers

• Research institutes

• National wind and renewables associations

• Developers

• Electricity providers

• Finance and insurance companies

• Consultants

• Contractors

This combined strength makes EWEA the world's largest and most powerful wind energy network

EUROPE HAS ALSO MAINTAINED ITS POSITION

AT THE FOREFRONT OF THE GLOBAL SCENE

Source: Global Wind Energy Council

Annual installed capacity by region (2003-2007, MW)

THE GLOBAL WORLD MARKET IN THE NEXT FIVE YEARS

Source: Global Wind Energy Council

WIND IS SIMILAR TO OTHER POWER SOURCES

16 years of global wind energy development (1991-2006) compared to the first 16 years of nuclear development

(1961-1976)

Source: EWEA Pure Power report

IN EUROPE, WIND POWER IS ONLY SECOND TO GAS

Source: EWEA and Platts PowerVision

Net power capacity additions 2000-2007 (EU-27, MW)

WIND HAS BECOME A MAINSTREAM PLAYER

76.641

-5.871-14.385-11.027

46.856

2.299 1.795 1.655

-40.000

-20.000

0

20.000

40.000

60.000

80.000

100.000

Naturalgas

Wind LargeHydro

Other Biomass Nuclear Coal Fuel Oil

… AND WAS EVEN # 1 LAST YEAR

Source: EWEASource: EWEA Pure Power report, Platts PowerVision

Net capacity additions/reductions in 2007 (MW)

122

8.504

-1.203-750

8.226

212 175 169

-2.000

0

2.000

4.000

6.000

8.000

10.000

Wind Naturalgas

Fuel Oil LargeHydro

Biomass Other Coal Nuclear

WIND HAS BECOME A MAINSTREAM PLAYER

WIND ENERGY IS SET TO COVER A MAJOR SHARE OF EU ELECTRICITY

DEMAND …

Source: EWEA

Rising energy demand and contribution from wind power

2000 2007 2020

Two decades toinstall 0.9% of EUelectricity demand

Demand: 2,577 TWh

Accelerating pace: reaching 3.7%

end 2007

Demand: 3,243 TWh

11.6%-14.3%despite growing demand

Demand: 4,107 TWh

Meeting between

20.8% and 28.2%

of the EU need

Demand: 4,503 TWh

2030

THE PANORAMA IN EUROPE:THREE PIONEERING COUNTRIES +

SECOND WAVE

Source: EWEA

End 2007 total installed capacity (MW)

A SECOND WAVE OF COUNTRIES IS EMERGING …

Source: EWEA

Germany, Spain and Denmark's share of EU market 2000-2007 (MW)

EWEA’S WIND POWER SCENARIOS

GW

55,576,5

112,5145 164,8 180

120

74,5

35

12

1,13,5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2007 2010 2015 2020 2015 2030

Onshore Offshore

… PROMISING FURTHER EXPANSION

3.7% 5% 8% 21%12% 16%

Source: EWEA

GW

2007 2010 2015 2020 2015 2030Electricity

share

THE SECTOR'S GROWTH WILL BE SUPPORTED

BY OFFSHORE WIND'S TAKE-OFF

Source: EWEA

.. AND OF NEW GENERATING CAPACITY

Source: EWEA Pure Power report

WIND INDUSTRY TARGET FOR THE EU-27 IN 2020

Installed capacity

% of EU electricity demand

% of new generating capacity% of total installed capacity

Avoided CO2 emissions

Annual avoided fuel costAnnual avoided CO2 cost

Total wind power investment

180 GW, incl. 35 GW offshore

11.6% to 14.3% (depending on 2020 demand)

32% (2011-2020) 18.1%

328 Mt of CO2= 160 million cars off the road

€20.5 billion €8.2 billion

€ 120 billion (2011-2020)

THE RENEWABLES DIRECTIVE

Sets mandatory national targets for renewable energy shares of final energy consumption in 2020, including a 10% renewables in transport target

Sets interim targets

Requires national action plans from Member States stating how they intend to reach their targets

Requires reduction of administrative and regulatory barriers to the growth of renewable energy, improvements in information and training and in renewables’ access to the grid

Creates a sustainability regime for biofuels

THE MEMBER STATES EFFORT SHARING

National overall targets for the share of energy from RES in final consumption of energy in 2020

2020 targetShare of energy from RES in 2005

Source: European Commission draft proposal for a Directive on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources

20%

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

B BG CZ DK D EE IRL GR E F I CY LV LT L H M NL A PL P RO SI SKFIN S GBPL

How to reach the target

From 15.2% to app.

35%

RES-E

2005 Eurostat 2020 Target

WIND BIGGEST CONTRIBUTOR TO THE TARGET

IN TERMS OF ELECTRICITY GENERATION

Source: EREC Renewable Energy Technology Roadmap – 20% by 2020, November 2008 and Eurostat

From 10.2% to app.

25%2005

Eurostat 2020 Target

RES-H

Wind power34.8%

Hydro28%

Photovoltaic13.1%

Biomass18.1%

Geothermal2.3%

Ocean0.4%

Solar thermal

3.1%

2020RES-E

From 1.05% to app.

10%

RES fortransport

2005 Eurostat 2020 Target

RES CONTRIBUTION TO EU ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION UP TO

2020

Source: EREC Renewable Energy Technology Roadmap – 20% by 2020, November 2008, Eurostat 2005 and 2006

App. 35%

Wind HydroPhotovoltaicBiomassGeothermalSolar thermal elec.Ocean

Total

Share of RES

2010 Projections

(TWh)

176360

20135

1021

704

19.7%

2006 Eurostat(TWh)

82.0357.2

2.589.9

5.6--

537.2

16.0%

2005Eurostat(TWh)

70.5346.9

1.580.0

5.4--

504.3

15.2%

Energy source2020 Target

(TWh) (%)

47738418025031435

1,370

34.828

13.118.32.33.10.4

100

• By 2030, global GHGs could more than double due to the rising use of fossil fuels

• The Stern report estimated that 1% of global GDP per annum is required to be invested in order to avoid the worst effects of climate change

• It also stated that failure to do so could risk global GDP being up to 20% lower than it otherwise might be

THE PRICE OF INACTION

• By 2030, oil imports are predicted to rise from 76% to 88% while gas imports from 50% to 81%, compared to the year 2000

• For every $20 increase in the price of oil, the cost of Europe's gas imports rises by €15bn annually

• The oil price increases of the past few years added €45bn to the EU annual gas import bill

• By comparison, the EU invested €11bn in wind energy

in 2007

EUROPEAN WIND ENERGY CONFERENCE 2009

16-19 March 2009Marseille, France

Heavy reliance on imports/ vulnerability to unpredictable but most likely higher prices

Competition with rest of the world for the depleting conventional fuels

Unbelievable environmental cost

Security of supply

Competitiveness

Sustainability

PURE POWER ON THE HORIZON

A MAJOR OPPORTUNITY

www.ewea.org