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WilmotMLMacro Advisory ∙ Machine Learning ∙ Investments
Jonathan Wilmot
September 2017
Machine Learning and the Global Outlook
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Combining human and machine intelligence together will be the great project of coming decades. It is likely to transform or touch most aspects of economic life, disrupt or challenge most of our existing social and democratic institutions, and profoundly change geo-politics and the technology of war
Key Secular Themes
• AI Everywhere • New Energy and Transport• Smarter Healthcare• Designer Genes• Connected Cities
All material contained in this slide is the intellectual property of WilmotML Ltd. Materials have been provided for the clients’individual use. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
Transformation
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All material contained in this slide is the intellectual property of WilmotML Ltd. Materials have been provided for the clients’ individual use. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
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Human Intelligence Machine Intelligence
Meaningful generalisationfrom small data sets
Creation of rich conceptual models
Mostly require large data sets
(Beyond) Human level performance in small number of problems: - speech recognition- object recognition- video game learning,
etc.
Such models allow for:- prediction- action- communication- imagination- explanation- composition- reconfiguration
Pattern Recognition and Model Building
Pattern recognition(and some Model Building)
Mainly predictive models
Human VS Machine Intelligence (Simplified)
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The future belongs to those who understand at a very deep level how to combine their unique
expertise with what algorithms do best
Pedro Domingos: The Master Algorithm 2015
5All material contained in this slide is the intellectual property of WilmotML Ltd. Materials have been provided for the clients’individual use. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
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Two Views on Productivity
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Growth in Real GDP per Capita, 1300 – 2075
UK Real GDP Growth Per Capita US Real GDP Growth Per Capita
US Real GDP Per Capita Forecast Optimist US Real GDP Growth Per Capita Pesimists
Robert Gordon View
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Years From Start
US Output Per Hour (Log Level)
US Q4 1960 - Q1 1991 US Q4 1994-Present
Is Productivity Growth Just Resting?
8All material contained in this slide is the intellectual property of WilmotML Ltd. Materials have been provided for the clients’individual use. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
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Is this a Leopard?
10All material contained in this slide is the intellectual property of WilmotML Ltd. Materials have been provided for the clients’individual use. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
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AI
Sk
ill
AUM Score
AI Expertise vs AUM (Stylised)
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Everyone Is Doing It: AI Expertise vs AUM
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log(HML) Trendline Upper bound Lower bound
US Equities: Value Vs Growth(HML)Trendlines: June 1926-July 2017
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Slope: 4.65%
All material contained in this slide is the intellectual property of WilmotML Ltd. Materials have been provided for the clients’individual use. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.
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Risk Appetite Vs Industrial Production
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Jan-00 Mar-02 May-04 Jul-06 Oct-08 Dec-10 Feb-13 May-15 Jul-17
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All material contained in this slide is the intellectual property of WilmotML Ltd. Materials have been provided for the clients’individual use. Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.