william chappell
TRANSCRIPT
WILLIAM
DIRECTOR
CHAPPELL
DARPA/MTO
Distribution Statement A – Approved for Public Release, Distribution Unlimited
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
The Intertwined History of DARPA and Moore’s LawDr. William Chappell
THE ELECTRONICS RESURGENCE INITIATIVE
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
THE ELECTRONICS RESURGENCE INITIATIVE
A Love Letter to Gordon MooreDr. William Chappell
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
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“Since my 1965 paper that ERI references, what has actually happened in the intervening 52 years is far beyond anything I contemplated.
- Gordon Moore, December 1, 2017
It is a testimony to the creativity of many engineers and scientists that the industry has surmounted apparent roadblocks that looked to be the end of transistor scaling.”
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More R&D intensive than any other industry
Aircraft $121 Billion
Semiconductors $43 Billion
Automobiles $53 Billion
Source: 2016 U.S. International Trade Commission, SIA
Semiconductors play an outsized role in the U.S.
Economy
Top 3 manufactured U.S. export
Percent domestic sales of R&D
20%
17%
Semiconductors
Pharmaceuticals
Source: NSF Business Research and Development and Innovation Survey
Semiconductors andRelated Devices
Petroleum and Refineries
Pharmaceutical preparations
Aircraft
Iron and Steel Mills
223%
265%
167%
93%
59%
0% 40% 80% 120% 160% 200% 240% 280%
GDP Growth 85.3%
Source: BEA 2007, ASM 2011, SIA
U.S. Manufacturing Sector Growth in Real Value Added to GDP (1987-2011)
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NAVAIR Public Release SPR 10-959 Distribution A: Approved for public release, distribution unlimited
Image: Flightglobal.com DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore
VIII. DAY OF RECKONING
Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.
It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.
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Today“component-crammed equipment”
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Software
Hardware
>$500M
800
1000
1200
600
400
200
0
Cost ($M)
109
1010
1011
1012
1013
1014
1015
High-performance processing units
Mobile processing units
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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Our unique moment in timeThe cost of integrated circuit design is skyrocketing, limiting innovation
Foreign investments are distorting the market and driving a shift outside of the U.S.
Digital influence is so pervasive in our society that we can’t afford to have flaws in the digital foundation
We can’t manufacture within the DoD base at modern nodes
The continued move towards generalization and abstraction is stifling potential gains in hardware
Cost
Abstraction
Foreign Investments
Manufacturing
Rising Stakes
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore
Materials & IntegrationAdding separately packaged novel materials and
using integration to provide specialized computing
VIII. DAY OF RECKONING
Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.
It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.
P.3
Today“component-crammed equipment”
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
“It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected.”
CHIPS
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Images: Stanford, MIT
CHIPS
3DSOC
Image: GLOBALFOUNDRIES
FRANCMTJ
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore
VIII. DAY OF RECKONING
Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.
It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.
Materials & IntegrationAdding separately packaged novel materials and
using integration to provide specialized computing
DesignQuickly enabling specialization
P.3
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Image: UC Berkeley
CRAFT
IDEA
POSH
“Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering”
CRAFT
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Electronics, April 19, 1965: Cramming More Components onto Integrated Circuits; Gordon Moore
ArchitecturesMaximizing specialized functions
DesignQuickly enabling specialization
VIII. DAY OF RECKONING
Clearly, we will be able to build such component-crammed equipment. Next, we ask under what circumstances we should do it. The total cost of making a particular system function must be minimized. To do so, we could amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions so that no disproportionate expense need be borne by a particular array. Perhaps newly devised design automation procedures could translate from logic diagram to technological realization without any special engineering.
It may prove to be more economical to build large systems out of smaller functions, which are separately packaged and interconnected. The availability of large functions, combined with functional design and construction, should allow the manufacturer of large systems to design and construct a considerable variety of equipment both rapidly and economically.
Materials & IntegrationAdding separately packaged novel materials and
using integration to provide specialized computing
P.3
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Image: Drexel Univ.
HIVE
SDH
DSSoC
Array of sensorsLiDAR
RF
Audio
HIVE“…amortize the engineering over several identical items, or evolve flexible techniques for the engineering of large functions…”
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
Even in the microwave area, structures included in the definition of integrated electronics will become increasingly important. The ability to make and assemble components small compared with the wavelengths involved will allow the use of lumped parameter design, at least at the lower frequencies. It is difficult to predict at the present time just how extensive the invasion of the microwave area by integrated electronics will be. The successful realization of such items as phased-array antennas, for example, using a multiplicity of integrated microwave power sources, could completely revolutionize radar.
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
SHIELD
< 100 um2
Art of the Small
L2M
In Field Learning
SC2
Learning Cooperation through Edge Intelligence
SSITH
Hardware as the Foundation of Security
N-ZERO
< 10 nW
No Power Operation Saliency
ReImagine
SensorReImagine
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Tran
sisto
r cou
nt
102
104
106
108
1012
1014
100
1010
1016
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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Moore’s Inflection
The
Next
Exp
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tial
DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT A. Approved for public release. Distribution is unlimited.
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E R I ELECTRONICSRESURGENCE INITIATIVE
A More Specialized, Secure, and Heavily Automated Electronics Industry