will robots inherit earth
TRANSCRIPT
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Will Robots Inherit Earth?
Miko Elwenspoek
October 2006
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Contents
• The robot challenges
• What is life
• Future of life
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University of TwenteIMPACT
University of TwenteMESA+
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http://www.nasa.gov/home/index.html
Robots in space
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There have been some 1000 space missions or so,
20 with man
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http://www.msl.ri.cmu.edu/projects/ballbot/video/ballbot_push.mpg
http://www.msl.ri.cmu.edu/projects/ballbot/video/nsh3305short.mpg
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Needs
• Motors for turning the ball
• Angular position sensors (gyroscopes) measure deviation from upright position
• Accelerometers to measure position and correct drift of gyroscopes
• A control system
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Control system
• Dynamic model
• Real-time algorithm
• Without model of the dynamics of the robots there is no control system
• There is no trial and error way to the robot
(in finite time)
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Robot Challenges: Intelligence
• Perception: how to distinguish a house from anything else, recognizing people
• World modeling: What is essential, and what not.
• What is understanding. How to reason
• What is consciousness
• Does a translating computer understand the book?
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Robot Challenges: Hardware
• Manipulation
• Locomotion
• energy harvest
• energy storage
• Sensors and actuators
• Real time computation
• Memory
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Ultimate Robot Challenges
• Self-repair capability
• Self-reproduction
Evolution of robots
If there is no solution:
robots will not inherit earth
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What is life
• Order: information storage and processing
• Evolution
•Metabolism•Reaction on environment•Homeostasis•Growth and development•Reproduction
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Order
Adenine Guanine
Cytosine Thymine
We shall need nanotechnology for robots
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Evolution
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Limitations of Carbon technology
• Great demands on conditions for our life– Temperature– Pressure– Radiation level– Type of atmosphere– Energy supply only by organic substances– Without water no life
• Quite unclear whether substantial prolongation of life is possible
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Future of life• Continuous threads from outside (meteorites) and inside (volcanism)• 109 years: sun becomes too hot to have liquid water on earth• 1-2 x 109 years: Andromeda collides with our galaxy. Galaxy will be
disrupted, solar system encounters dangerous environments• 5 x 109 years: Our sun will become a red giant• 6 x 109 years: Our sun will diminish to a white dwarf• 1012 years: all material has been processed in stars• Left over: electrons, positrons, electromagnetic radiation, neutrinos,
gravitons, black holes• Possible energy sources: black holes, gravitation
• If cosmic expansion is not too fast (no cosmological constant) life can harvest energy for thinking indefinitely
• Cosmological constant: expansion grows exponentially and everything will be disrupted eventually (this seems actually to be the case. No prospects for eternal life)
One day life has to leave earth
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Probability for life
How big is the probability to assemble this sentence by accident?
Roughly #characters!=65!=1.2.3….64.65=8x1090
HOW OFTEN CAN THIS HAPPEN?
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Assumptions:
• I have only these letters
• A letter has a surface of 1nm2 sentence has a surface of 65 nm2
• All planets are covered by one layer of letters 4(7x106)2 m2 5
1013m2/65nm2 sentences per planet = 1031 sentences per planet
• Each sun has one of these planets (size earth) (at most)
• 1011 suns, 1011 galaxies1022 planets in visible universe 1053 sentences
• Letters try every 1013 s a new configuration
• Age universe 4x1017s (enough material tom form life: 2x1017s)
• 1030 1053 = 1083 trials within Hubble sphere during life time
Probability for emergence of this sentence within Hubble sphere < 107
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What is the minimum number of genes?
• A gene codes for one protein
• 3 nucleic acids for one amino acid
• 1 protein consists of 10’s to 1000’s of amino acids
• How many proteins do you need at least for life?
• Smallest functional DNA molecule > 200 bases (Dyson)?
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Information processing and reproduction
• Two subsystems are needed: – information storage– Mechanism to read and copy information
• Example:– DVD– DVD-player– DVD burner
Life needs both analogues at the same time
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Life from thermal fluctuations
Spontaneous emergence of life 1080/200! In Hubble sphere (calculator:200!=ERROR)
• lnN!=NlnN=1000 e1000=10430
• Probability to form life =1080/10430=10350
Variations in this calculation have no impact
At the same time you need the right proteins (?)
Probability to form life spontaneously = (10350)2=10700
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Probability for lifeHow big is the probability to assemble this sentence by accident?
Roughly #characters!=65!=1.2.3….64.65=8x1090
HOW OFTEN CAN THIS HAPPEN? 10-8 time in visible universe during its existence
BUT: If there is a template so that in first place only H fits, in second only o, third only w… probability = 1
Essentially we have no idea: need to understand the process!
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Is there life out there?
• Galaxy is full of amino acids• No life on Mars (?)• All attempts to create something self reproducing in
lab failed so far• On earth all existing life emerged from a single origin
(?)• A breakthrough to animals occurred only once (?)• SETI: no trace for intelligent life (?)• If space travel is not impossible a civilization will
colonize the galaxy within a few million years: Where are they?
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Conclusion
• Good chance we are alone• We are responsible for the future of life• Robots can be constructed to function anywhere (?)• If self-reproduction possible for robots:
They will be madeThey will help usThey will out-compete usThey will replace us or - Perhaps we merge with robotsThey will colonize the universe
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Greatest Problems
Consciousness
Reproduction
Do we dare?