why we’ll need more than seven “stabilization wedges” sustainability institute 10 jan 08...
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Why We’ll Need More Than Seven
“Stabilization Wedges”
Sustainability Institute10 Jan 08
CreditCreditLead ModelerDr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems
http://www.metasd.com/index.html
Modeling and FramingDr. John Sterman, MIT
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/
Modeling, Framing, and Presentation DesignAndrew Jones, Sustainability Institutehttp://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/
Lead ModelerDr. Tom Fiddaman, Ventana Systems
http://www.metasd.com/index.html
Modeling and FramingDr. John Sterman, MIT
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/
Modeling, Framing, and Presentation DesignAndrew Jones, Sustainability Institutehttp://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/
If Fossil Fuel Emissions Follow the “Business as Usual”
Path, CO2 in the Atmosphere Will Pass the Goal of 450 ppm
If Fossil Fuel Emissions Follow the “Business as Usual”
Path, CO2 in the Atmosphere Will Pass the Goal of 450 ppm
This is comparable to the IPCC “business as usual” future
What would it take to get CO2 in the atmosphere to stabilize under 450 ppm? How to get the blue line to fall to here?
Fossil Fuel Emissions24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
Goal
CO2 in the Atmosphere
800
700
600
500
400
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
The Wedges Plan Proposes a “Flat path”, Leveling Emissions Through 2054 and
Then Reducing Them
The Wedges Plan Proposes a “Flat path”, Leveling Emissions Through 2054 and
Then Reducing Them So what would happen to CO2 in the atmosphere? Would we meet the goal?
Socolow and Pacala
How close to our goal would the “Flat path” bring us (With no
“post 2050” reductions)?
How close to our goal would the “Flat path” bring us (With no
“post 2050” reductions)?
Fossil Fuel Emissions24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
The “flat path”
Draw a line starting here
What if fossil fuel emissions flattened at 2007 levels? Sketch in the curve you think would result on the graph to the right.
Why?
Interactive Exercise
CO2 in the Atmosphere
800
700
600
500
400
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
We Will Run Experiments in a Carbon Cycle Model Using
System Dynamics
We Will Run Experiments in a Carbon Cycle Model Using
System Dynamics
CO2 inAtmosphere
CO2 inMixed Layer
CO2 in DeepOcean
Flux Atm to Ocean
Diffusion Flux
CO2 inHumus
CO2 inBiomass
Flux Atm to Biomass
Flux Biomass to Atmosphere
Flux Biomass to Humus
Flux Humus to Atmosphere
<CO2Emissions>
Simplified Carbon Cycle Sector
We Simulated a Future Where We Just Level Emissions Along the
“Flat Path”
We Simulated a Future Where We Just Level Emissions Along the
“Flat Path”
When emissions follow the “flat path,” CO2 concentrations only grow more slowly. Why?
With no “post 2050” reductions
Fossil Fuel Emissions24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
0
The “flat path”
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
Goal
CO2 in the Atmosphere
800
700
600
500
400
300
“Flat path” results
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
Think of CO2 in the Atmosphere as a Bathtub
Think of CO2 in the Atmosphere as a Bathtub
Emissions
CO2 in the atmosphere
Net Removals
The “flat path” caps emissions above removals. More is still flowing into the bathtub than is flowing out! So the level of water in the bathtub continues to rise.
The tub is filled by emissions and drained by net removals into oceans and biomass.
The inflow is roughly double the outflow
Emissions Still Exceed Removals
Emissions Still Exceed Removals
So CO2 in the atmosphere continues to increase.
Total Emissions and Removals
24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
0
The “flat path” for emissions
Net removals
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
CO2 in the Atmosphere
800
675
550
425
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
But The Wedges Plan Also Proposes
Reducing Emissions After 2054! But The Wedges Plan Also Proposes
Reducing Emissions After 2054!
Will that make the difference?
Socolow and Pacala
Reducing Emissions Post 2050 Puts Us On Track to Levelize
CO2 around 550 ppm
Reducing Emissions Post 2050 Puts Us On Track to Levelize
CO2 around 550 ppm
The “flat path” plus post 2054 reductions
Emissions exceed net removals all the way to 2100!
Fossil Fuel Emissions
24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
CO2 in the Atmosphere800
700
600
500
400
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
The outcome of the “flat path” plus post 2050 reductions
Goal
What Happened? Why Didn’t Emissions
Level?
What Happened? Why Didn’t Emissions
Level?Total Emissions and Removals
24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
02000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
Despite reductions, Emissions exceeded Net Removals through 2100.
CO2 in the atmosphere will rise until the two meet.
CO2 in the Atmosphere
800
675
550
425
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Goal
Emissions
Net Removals
So What Will it Take To Stabilize CO2 in the Atmosphere Below Our
Goal?
So What Will it Take To Stabilize CO2 in the Atmosphere Below Our
Goal?
It Will Take an 80% Reduction in Fossil Fuel
Emissions
It Will Take an 80% Reduction in Fossil Fuel
Emissions
At this point, emissions equal net removals by 2050!
Fossil Fuel Emissions
24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
CO2 in the Atmosphere800
700
600
500
400
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
Goal
80% Reduction Brings Emissions Down to Meet
Removals
80% Reduction Brings Emissions Down to Meet
RemovalsTotal Emissions and Removals
24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
Emissions
Net Removals
So levels of CO2 in the atmosphere stabilize.
Emissions CO2 in the atmosphere
Net Removals
So Meeting the Goal Will Require 7
Stabilizations, Plus 6-7 More So Meeting the Goal Will Require 7
Stabilizations, Plus 6-7 More
Socolow and Pacala
About 6-7 more wedges
Aggressive Sequestration (seq.) can boost
removals
Aggressive Sequestration (seq.) can boost
removals Sources of Total Removals6 B
4.475 B
2.95 B
1.425 B
-100 M
1900 1930 1960 1990 2020 2050 2080Time (year)
Ton
C/y
ear
biomass
oceans
seq.
Results with 80% reduction in fossil fuel emissions plus 1.6 GTC/year in additional sequestration by 2050
CO2 in the Atmosphere800
700
600
500
400
300
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
ppm
Goal
The Added Sequestration Boosts
Net Removals
The Added Sequestration Boosts
Net RemovalsTotal Emissions and Removals24 B
18 B
12 B
6 B
0
2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Ton
C/y
ear
Net Removals without additional sequestration
Net Removals with additional sequestration
So CO2 in the atmosphere balances out a little earlier and lower
More informationMore information Models on which the model that created these runs were based http://www.metasd.com/models/index.html#Climate
Interactive version covering some of these ideas http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/challenge.htm
http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/tools_resources/climatebathtubsim.html
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/GHG.html Video version
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8235725143334110601&pr=goog-sl
Other related simulations http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/climate_change/simulations.html
Models on which the model that created these runs were based http://www.metasd.com/models/index.html#Climate
Interactive version covering some of these ideas http://www.seed.slb.com/en/scictr/watch/climate_change/challenge.htm
http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/tools_resources/climatebathtubsim.html
http://web.mit.edu/jsterman/www/GHG.html Video version
http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=8235725143334110601&pr=goog-sl
Other related simulations http://www.sustainabilityinstitute.org/climate_change/simulations.html
More Notes on the Model
More Notes on the Model
“Emissions” in the model is total CO2 emissions. Including land use change emissions but not including the CO2 equivalents of other greenhouse gasses.
“Emissions” in the model is total CO2 emissions. Including land use change emissions but not including the CO2 equivalents of other greenhouse gasses.