why the broiler industry dramatically increased live weights… and what it got us

PIC Symposium 2010 | Nashville, TN

Why the Broiler Industry Dramatically Increased Live Weights…

and What It Got Us

Michael DonohueVice President Agri Stats, Inc.2011 PIC Symposium


Agri Stats and the Broiler Industry

• Agri Stats – A Benchmarking Tool– Xerox in the 80’s– Best Management Practice Programs

• Confidential and Verifiable Identification of Competitive Strengths and Opportunities

• Action Plans to Improve Costs and Efficiencies


Agri Stats and the Broiler Industry

• Started by Jim Cox – 1985• Currently > 95% of U.S. Broiler Processors• Turkey report since 2001 – 90 % Industry Participation• Egg report• Express Markets Inc. (EMI)• Swine report : over 1.8 million sows


Presentation Topics

• Field Improvements Over Time• The Growth of the ‘Big Bird’ Industry• Seasonal trends in growing ‘big’• Challenges to the sector


Agri Stats, Inc.

Vital Signs1988 through 2010


Average Broiler Wt.Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010

4.004.254.504.755.005.255.505.756.006.25

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

Live

Wt.

(Lbs

.)


Broiler Livability and Field Condemn %

93.0%93.5%94.0%94.5%95.0%95.5%96.0%96.5%

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Year

% L

ivab

ility

0.00%0.20%0.40%0.60%0.80%1.00%1.20%1.40%

% F

ield

Con

dem

n

% Livability % Field Condemn


Days and Calories Conversion to 5.0 Lb. Live Wt.Agri Stats Vital Signs 1992 through 2010

4042444648505254

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Year

Day

s to

5.0

Lbs

.

24002500260027002800290030003100

Cal

Con

v./ l

ive

Lb.

Days to 5.0 Adj. Cal Conv./Live Lb.


White Meat YieldAgri Stats Vital Signs 1994 through 2010

13.0%14.0%15.0%16.0%17.0%18.0%19.0%20.0%21.0%22.0%

1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

Whi

te M

eat %

of L

ive

Wt.


Evis. Yield % of Live Wt.Agri Stats Vital Signs 1994 through 2010

6869707172737475

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

Evis

. Yie

ld %

of L

ive

Wt.


% Production (65 Weeks)Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010

60%

61%

62%

63%

64%

65%

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

% H

D Pr

oduc

tion


% Hatchability (65 Weeks)Agri Stats Vital Signs 1988 through 2010

82.0%82.5%83.0%83.5%84.0%84.5%85.0%

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Year

% H

atch

abili

ty

c


Presentation Topics



Industry Live Wt. by Bird Sector

3.50

4.50

5.50

6.50

7.50

8.50

Liv

e W

t. (L

bs.)

Large Debone Tray Pack Fast Food


Plant Cost

141618202224262830

Cen

ts/L

b.

Large Debone Tray Pack Fast Food


Number of Large Bird Deboning Plantsin Agri Stats

05

1015202530354045

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

# of Plants


Breast Meat Deboning Labor Cost/Lb.U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants

0.00

2.00

4.00

6.00

8.00

10.00

12.00

14.00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Cents/Lb.


Breast Meat Efficiencies – Lbs. per ManhourU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Lbs./MH


Breast Meat Deboning – Hourly Wage RateU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants

$8.00

$9.00

$10.00

$11.00

$12.00

$13.00

$14.00

$15.00

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

$/Hour


Boneless Breast Meat Yields - % of Live Wt.U.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants

171819202122232425

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

WM Yield


Breast Meat as a % of Total Evis. Product MixU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants

232425262728293031

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

% of PMIX


Bnls Dark Meat as a % of Total Evis. Product MixU.S. Large Bird Deboning Plants

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.0

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

% of PMIX


Presentation Topics



Changes in Live Wt. Big Bird Deboners

7.07.27.47.67.88.08.28.4

20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52

Week

Live

Wei

ght (

Lbs.)

2009 2010


Days to 5.0 Lbs.Birds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight

39.5

40.0

40.5

41.0

41.5

40 41 42 43 44

Week of the Year

200820092010


Adjusted Calorie ConversionBirds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight

2,550

2,575

2,600

2,625

2,650

40 41 42 43 44

Week of the Year

200820092010


LivabilityBirds Grown > 7.5 lb. live weight

95.50

95.60

95.70

95.80

95.90

96.00

96.10

96.20

40 41 42 43 44

Week of the Year

200820092010


Presentation Topics



Actual Corn Cost/Bushel

$2.00$2.50$3.00$3.50$4.00$4.50$5.00$5.50$6.00$6.50$7.00$7.50$8.00

S N J07 M M J S N J08 M M J S N J09 M M J S N J10 M M J S N J11

4/2/2011


Live Cost and Broiler Feed Ing. CostSeptember 16, 2006 through April 9, 2011

25.027.029.031.033.035.037.039.041.043.045.047.0

37 44 51 6 13 20 27 34 41 48 3 10 17 24 31 38 45 52 7 14 21 28 35 42 49 4 11 18 25 32 39 46 1 8 15

Week

Live

Cos

t: C

ents

/Lb.

121416182022242628303234

Feed

Ing.

Cos

t : C

ents

/Lb.

Live Production Cost Feed Ing. Cost


Cumulative additional cost to the broiler industry in broiler feed ingredient expense since October 2006

$0

$4,000,000,000

$8,000,000,000

$12,000,000,000

$16,000,000,000

$20,000,000,00010

/21/

2006

12/2

1/20

06

2/21

/200

7

4/21

/200

7

6/21

/200

7

8/21

/200

7

10/2

1/20

07

12/2

1/20

07

2/21

/200

8

4/21

/200

8

6/21

/200

8

8/21

/200

8

10/2

1/20

08

12/2

1/20

08

2/21

/200

9

4/21

/200

9

6/21

/200

9

8/21

/200

9

10/2

1/20

09

12/2

1/20

09

2/21

/201

0

4/21

/201

0

6/21

/201

0

8/21

/201

0

10/2

1/20

10

12/2

1/20

10

2/21

/201

1

Additional Cost $

Total over the last 229 weeks $ 19,183,238,256


Cumulative additional cost to the swine industry in swine feed ingredient expense since October 2006


Thank you for your Time!

why the broiler industry dramatically increased live weights… and what it got us

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