why temperature matters: implications for forest ... · why temperature matters: implications for...
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Why temperature matters : Implicat ions for forest watersheds & ser vices
N i co las Zè g reWe s t V i r g i n i a U n i v e r s i t yM o u n t a i n H y d r o l o g y L a b
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Carson Wright (WV DEP)
David Young (Green Rivers)
Leighia Eggett (Peace Corps)
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http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/
1884
2006
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The Water Cycle
Hendriks 2010
Evapotranspiration
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Climate, Landcover, & Morphology
Controls on hydrolog y
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Climate, Landcover, & Morphology
Controls on hydrolog y
Jones et al, 2012
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Climate, Landcover, & MorphologyControls on hydrolog y
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Controls on hydrolog y Climate, Landcover, & Morphology
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Why temperature matters
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Clausius–Clapeyron relation:warmer air holds more water;
Why temperature matters
Feedbacks - Water as GHG;
Cambioclimaticglobal.com
Acceleration in water cycle –storms, floods, & droughts;
How sensitive are forest watersheds (& their services) to changes in climate?
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Atmospheric water vapor
Water stored in the atmosphere
Hendriks 2010
- High spatial variability;- Increasing between 60°S &
75°N [1]
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Global increases by 1-3% [2]
Precipitation
Hemisphere variations - increases by 7-12% (northern
hemisphere)[3]- decreases by 2%
(southern hemisphere)[4]
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- Plant water uptake;- Controlled by solar
radiation, moisture, vapor gradient, & plant physiology;
Generally increasing
Transpiration
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Growing Season LengthLook back to the founders of environmental lit & philosophy:
Leopold’s A Sand County Almanac (1949)
Thorea’s Walden; or Life in the Woods (1854)
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Water World – West Virginia
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Historical variabil ity
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Intensif ication Study
Cheat River [3,700 km2/1,428 mi2]
Max elevation: 1,482 m / 4,863 ftTemperate forest - mixed hardwood
Precipitation: 1,480 mm / 58 in.Air Temp: 9.3°C / 49°F
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• 3 climate scenarios to characterize an uncertain future (IPCC);
• Input into hydrologic model calibrated using historical data (1950-2005) to predict future hydrology;
• Monthly air temp & precipitation from the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project;
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What did we learn?
Air temp
Precipitation
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Warmer air means more rain & more runoff
Streamflow
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Implications of Intensif ication
Ecological• Resilience;• Species changes (transpiration,
soil chemistry);• Nutrients, sediment, water
quality;• BMP’s, TMDL; • Aquatic habitat;• Carbon sequestration;• Etc.
SocietalForest ecosystem services;• Flood attenuation;• Nutrients, CO2;• Drinking water, irrigation,
electricity, etc.;• Fiber & food;• Forest productivity,
management, industry;• Infrastructure; • Etc.
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Dr. Nicolas ZègreMounta in Hydrolog y L ab
Davis Col legeWest Virg in ia Univers i ty
http : //w w w.mounta inhydrolog ylab.com/nicolas .zegre@mai l .w vu.edu
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“We realize we need to prepare for a future when carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced”.
Closing thoughts
“Cutting greenhouse gas emissions while keeping the lights on for a growing population is a huge but critical challenge. We have to believe it is a challenge we can meet.” - Ben van Beurden, CEO
“Energy and climate represent two of the most important business challenges of this century.”
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“The impacts of climate change may increase the frequency, scale, and complexity of future missions”.
Closing thoughts
“Climate change is a national security challenge…it will affect the type, scope, and location of future Navy missions”.