Population Matters 135-137 Station Road, London E4 6AG +44(0)20 8123 9116 www.populationmatters.org enquiries@populationmatters.orgPatrons: Sir David Attenborough OM CH CVO CBE ● Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta ● Professor Paul Ehrlich ● Dr Jane Goodall DBE ● Professor John Guillebaud ● Susan Hampshire OBE ● Dr James Lovelock CBE ● Professor Aubrey Manning OBE ● Professor Norman Myers CMG ● Chris Packham ● Sara Parkin OBE ● Jonathon Pomitt CBE ● Lionel Shriver ● Sir Crispin Tickell GCMG KCVO Population Matters is the working name of the Optimum Population Trust. Regd. charity no. 1114109. Regd. company no. 3019081. Regd. office as above.

Why Population Matters

An introduction

Slide 2

Slide 3

Summary

1. Current world consumption levels are already unsustainable

2. Per capita consumption and population are still rising rapidly and sustainable business practices are limited

3. We need to address all three factors to bring supply and demand for resources and biodiversity into long term balance

Slide 4

Introducing Population Matters

• Founded in 1991 as the Optimum Population Trust and the only UK population concern group

• Campaigns for stabilisation and gradual population decrease globally and in the UK to sustainable (optimum) levels

• Conducts lobbying, media activity, on line and local campaigning

• Patrons: David Attenborough, Partha Dasgupta, Professor Paul Ehrlich, Jane Goodall, Susan Hampshire, John Guillebaud, James Lovelock, Aubrey Manning, Norman Myers, Sara Parkin, Chris Packham, Jonathon Porritt, Lionel Shriver and Crispin Tickell

• Funded from members and donations: you can join from £20 pa (£5 concessions) at www.optimumpopulation.org

Slide 5

Why does it matter?

“No generation has a freehold on this earth. All we have is a life tenancy, with a full repairing lease.”

- Margaret Thatcher

Slide 6

How well are we looking after our planet?

“Populations of tropical species are plummeting and humanity’s demands on natural resources are sky-rocketing to 50 per cent more than the earth can sustain 

The 2010 (Living Planet) report finds that our demand on natural resources has doubled since 1966.”

WWF 13th October 2010

Slide 7

How well are we looking after ourselves?

Over one billion hungry UN FAO

11 million children die before age five UN

More than 500,000 women die in pregnancy or childbirth

UN

Wildlife down avg. 30% in 40 years WWF

2/3 popn. water stressed by 2025 UN FAO

Oil production peaked in 2005 US Govt.

Slide 8

..and then there’s climate change

• Uncertain rainfall – droughts and desertification

• Melting glaciers – loss of water for irrigation

• Changing temperatures – loss of crops and wild life/ sea life

• Rising sea levels - flooding

Slide 9

Population - historical

Slide 10

Population - religious

For every one person alive at the time of Jesus Christ, there are 35 alive today

Slide 11

Population – 1960 to 2050

3,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

9,000,000,000

1960 2000 2050

Slide 12

Resources are limited

• Fresh water is finite and degradable• Fertile soil is finite and degradable• Energy at current prices is finite• The climate and the seas are degradable• Plant life and minerals are finite• Wildlife and sea life are finite and degradable• Quality of life is degradable• These resources are interdependent

Slide 13

Things aren’t great now

Millennium Development Goals by 2015

1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger2. Achieve universal primary education3. Promote gender equality and empower women4. Reduce child mortality rate5. Improve maternal health

– Target 5B: Achieve, by 2015, universal access to reproductive health

6. Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases7. Ensure environmental sustainability8. Develop a global partnership for development

Slide 14

Development has two pros and cons

Demographic transition Consequences of growth

+ -

Economic development

Gender equality

Reproductive health

Population stabilisation

Longevity

High input western diets

Higher energy use

Pollution and loss of habitat

Higher resource use

Health

Economic development

Slide 15

Technology has pros and cons, too

For good…• Contraception• Conservation• Renewable energy• Desalination plants• Efficient resource use• New materials• New technologies

Or ill• Logging• Bottom trawling• Sonar based fishing• High input

monoculture• Mass air travel• Patio heaters

Slide 16

Growth happens till limits are reached

• Sexual impulse is strong and instinctive• Sexual intercourse often leads to reproduction

unless this is obstructed• Individuals will seek to:

– procreate– prosper – prolong their lives

• Population and consumption will grow unless constrained by artificial or natural means

Slide 17

UN Population Projections to 2050 (log scale)

3 billion is a big

difference!

It’s the size of the

entire world

population in 1960.

8

11

9

Slide 18

Growth by continent (log scale)

Africa

Asia

Latin AmericaEurope

North America

World

Slide 19

We must take responsibility for our actions and for the world we live in

• What drives consumption?

– Lifestyle/ living standards

– Government and business practices

– Number of people

• What can we do about it?

– Live a green lifestyle

– Encourage sustainable behaviours

– Fund access to family planning and have fewer children

Is having many children irresponsible and unethical?

Slide 20

Our critics feel strongly about us…• “The barmy Malthusians at OPT” – David Aaronovitch• “(PopOffsets)…offers a way for elitist racists to feel ethical in their quest

to exterminate the third world masses.”- climategateTV• “The odious OPT is a zombie-like Malthusian organisation devoted to

the cause of human depletion.” – Frank Furedi• “…this red herring of population…” – Duncan Green, Oxfam• “Unequal distribution is the problem. The malthusianists/ proto-fascists

in the OPT would have you believe otherwise...”- Andy Hewett, Green Party

• “here is a message … to the population control freaks … mind your own reproducing business.”- Dominic Lawson

• “…most of those who are obsessed with population growth are post-reproductive wealthy white men…” – George Monbiot

• “(OPT) are talking dangerous nonsense… overconsumption, not overpopulation, is what really imperils the planet. …” - Fred Pearce

• “There are ways of 'fighting' climate change that are going to lead to a lot of oppression, you don't have to be a conspiracy crank to be worried” – Derek Wall, Green Party

Slide 21

Population Matters are allegedly anti…

• People• Family• Women• Children• Fun• Freedom

• God• Third world• Poor people• Rich people• Immigrants• Native populations

Slide 22

The “taboo”

• Why do many people hate to talk about population?– Philosophical– Historical/ personal– Practical

Slide 23

Philosophical basis for taboo

• Past predictions did not come to pass– Malthus in 1800s; Ehrlich in 1960s

• Selective breeding is unacceptable– Eugenics; Hitler 11m dead; ethnic cleansing

• Coercive family planning is unacceptable– India under Indira; Chinese one child policy

• Individual/ third world/ women’s rights – We can’t tell people what to do

Slide 24

Historical/ personal basis for taboo

• Religious tenets – Go forth and multiply

• National security – Breed more soldiers

• Family economy – Two hand, one mouth

• Masculinity – A fertile man is a real man

• Children provide - a sense of achievement/ ownership/ companionship/ future accomplishment

• Instinct - to procreate and love one’s children

Slide 25

Practical basis for the taboo

• People won’t respond to an appeal for restraint

• Who’ll look after us all when we get old?

• Too slow to affect climate change

• It’s a distraction from the “real problem” e.g. permissiveness, capitalism, greed, carbon emissions, meat eating etc.

Slide 26

How do we respond to these taboos?

• State the facts

• Focus on now and the future, not the past

• Talk about sustainability

• Acknowledge role of other solutions

• Talk about the practical steps needed

Slide 27

What approaches are ethical?

Easier - Should we? • For developing countries

– Encourage economic development

– Encourage gender equality– Fund reproductive healthcare

• For the UK– Improve opportunities and

education for young women– Improve sex education– Improve the quality of family

planning advice• Advertise contraception before

the watershed

Harder – Should we?• Have balanced migration• Pay universal child benefit for

only the first two children• Provide family planning

services to teenagers without their parents’ knowledge

• Require pharmacists to stock the ‘morning after’ pill

• Allow abortion on request• Pay people to

– delay childbearing – be sterilised

• Impose fines and/ or loss of benefits for ‘too many’ children

Slide 28

green=yes, amber=poss., red=no

Easier - Should we? • For developing countries

– Encourage economic development

– Encourage gender equality– Fund reproductive healthcare

• For the UK– Improve opportunities and

education for young women– Improve sex education– Improve the quality of family

planning advice• Advertise contraception before

the watershed

Harder – Should we?• Have balanced migration• Pay automatic tax credit/

benefit for first two children • Provide family planning

services to teenagers without their parents’ knowledge

• Require pharmacists to stock the ‘morning after’ pill

• Allow abortion on request• Pay adults to

– delay childbearing – be sterilised

• Impose penalties for ‘too many’ children

Slide 29

Countries with lower birth rates have often achieved this without fiscal pressure

2

129

53

2718 15 14

3

Up to 1 Over 1to 2

Over 2to 3

Over 3to 4

Over 4to 5

Over 5to 6

Over 6to 7

Over 7to 8

No. of countries: Average total fertility rate 2005-2010 Source: UN

Slide 30

Our key goals

• Universal access to reproductive health – 215m women can’t afford or have available modern contraception

• Gender equality and social development worldwide to provide the conditions for smaller families

• Reducing the incidence of undesired conceptions through better education and healthcare

• Asking people to have one or two children rather than three or four for environmental/ sustainability reasons

• We accept the important of sustainable lifestyles and business practices

Slide 31

Summary

1. Current world consumption levels are already unsustainable

2. Per capita consumption and population are still rising rapidly and sustainable business practices are limited

3. We need to address all three factors to bring supply and demand for resources and biodiversity into long term balance