why over-the-top is the future of communications
DESCRIPTION
Presentation at 4G Wireless Evolution Conference Feb 2011.TRANSCRIPT
Over the Top Brough Turner
Why Over the Top is the Future of Communica7on
Brough Turner Founder, netBlazr.com
• "Internet protocol networks are like Pac Man. Eventually they will eat everything.” – Hossein Eslambolchi, AT&T's CTO, 2003
• "Anyone who relies on the fact that they own a scarce distribu7on resource is going to face ten years of turmoil.” – Paul Sagan, chief execuHve of Akamai, 2007
• "If a customer likes it, it doesn't maIer what it does to your economics – it's going to happen.” – Jack Cassidy, CEO of CincinnaH Bell, 2008
PredicHons vs. Outcomes • 1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc – Takes longer or never happens …
• Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected – But decades perspecHve
PredicHons vs. Outcomes • 1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc – Takes longer or never happens …
• Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected – But decades perspecHve
Hype
PredicHons vs. Outcomes • 1-‐3 year predicHons usually over enthusiasHc – Takes longer or never happens …
• Actual outcomes more sweeping than expected – But decades perspecHve
AdopHon
NegaHve Returns (2000-‐2009)
hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-‐broadband-‐networks-‐returns-‐on-‐invested-‐capital-‐sHnk
NegaHve Returns (2000-‐2009)
hWp://seekingalpha.com/arHcle/243441-‐broadband-‐networks-‐returns-‐on-‐invested-‐capital-‐sHnk
Ne[lix Performance on Top US Networks
Data Rates
• TwiWer: Negligible • Facebook: Tiny (except video) • Skype audio: 6-‐40 Kbps * • Ne[lix SD Video: 500, 1000 & 1500 Kbps ** • Ne[lix HD Video: 2600 & 3800 Kbps **
* SILK wideband audio coder ** VC1 Advanced Profile video coder
Latency Not Important
Latency is Important
ConversaHon, even with a voice mail system, requires low latency
hWp://www.flickr.com/photos/fadderuri/2715777726/
Mouth-‐to-‐Ear delay
Voice QoS
1. Dedicated wires = 20th century approach – Cable & FiOS use separate logical path today
2. Simple prioriHes – Mobile telephony (2G-‐ & 3G-‐specific approaches) – Enterprise IP-‐PBXs (via DiffServ or 802.1p)
3. Extra bandwidth, i.e. “headroom” – Vonage, etc. – Skype
Mobile download bandwidth
Akamai State of the Internet Report 3Q 2010
Voice on 4G
• LTE is all-‐IP: Voice services a work-‐in-‐progress 1. Fallback to 3G voice 2. Leverage IMS / “One voice” / VoLTE (not VoLGA)
• 4-‐6 years for widespread 4G voice services based on carrier-‐provided QoS
Over-‐the-‐Top • Video Social – Happening now – Game over
– Happening fast !
• Voice – Happening now – TransiHoning market-‐by-‐market, as bandwidth headroom becomes available.
– Over-‐the-‐top voice on 4G is a certainty