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Why? Report from Election Night Survey November 2016

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Page 1: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

Why? Report from Election Night Survey

November 2016

Page 2: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

1

Methodology

National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with a high stated intention of voting in 2016. In addition to a 900 voter base sample, oversamples of 200 Rising American Electorate voters (unmarried women, minorities and millennials) and 200 battleground state voters (AZ, FL, OH, IA, NC, NV, NH, PA, VA, WI) were included. Data shown in this deck is among all 2016 voters unless otherwise noted. Margin of error for the full sample is +/-3.27 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Of the 1,300 respondents, 65 percent were interviewed via cell phone in order to accurately sample the American electorate.

Page 3: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

48 47

3 2

47 49

4

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

GaryJohnson

Stein/Other

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Johnson/Stein/Other

+1

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian

Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

Clinton wins popular vote nationally, trails in battleground states-

2

+2

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Nationally Battleground States

Page 4: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

89

9 2

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Johnson/Stein/Other

42 48

10

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Johnson/Stein/Other

3

Democrats

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump, Libertarian Gary

Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

Both equally consolidated their bases, but short of 2012

7

90

3

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

Johnson/Stein/Other

Independents Republicans

+80 +6 +83

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Page 5: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

85

9 1 3

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

GaryJohnson

Jill Stein

4

Sanders Primary Voters

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- (ROTATE CLINTON/TRUMP) Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican

Donald Trump, (ROTATE JOHNSON/STEIN) Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

Both parties incompletely united

81

10 4 0

DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

GaryJohnson

Jill Stein

Non-Trump Primary Voters

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

13% HELD BACK 14% HELD BACK

Page 6: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

People say they are hopeful because change will be good

5

Generally speaking, right now are you feeling - hopeful or doubtful - about America's future? (IF HOPEFUL) Tell me why you say you are hopeful?

Why Hopeful Total Battleground RAE Unmarried

Women

Change is good 47 43 48 57

Trump – positive 36 40 33 20

Stuff will get done 9 6 8 7

Pro-Republican government 8 8 7 9

Corruption will be cleaned up 5 7 4 7

No more Obama 5 3 7 3

Hillary won’t be president 3 3 2 2

Should support the president 3 3 3 2

Other/Don’t know/Refused 13 13 17 20

Page 7: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

6

Trump & “change” dominate framework for prospect of hopeful future;

Trump and “president” are framework for doubts

Hopeful about country’s future

Doubtful

Page 8: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

7

RISING AMERICAN ELECTORATE &

TRUMP COALITION

Page 9: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

78

42

21

11 10 8

72

48

23 19

13 10

75

45

22

10 12 8

70

55

23 29

12 11

71

25

32

12 11

2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016 2010 2012 2014 2016

Rising American Electorate

Unmarried women

Millennial African

Americans

PERCENT OF ELECTORATE

Hispanics White

The Rising American Electorate – now majority of voters

Actual vote share Projected vote share

The Rising American Electorate (RAE) consists of millennials, minorities and unmarried women. Prior to 2016, RAE was defined as youth, minorities and unmarried women. Vote share for millennials and RAE in 2010, 2012, and 2014 is for 18-29 year olds.

Page 10: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

69 66 59

70 67 62

95 93 89

67 71

65 67 60

56

30 33 35 30 31 34

4 6 8

31 27 29 32

37 35

2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016

Democratic Presidential Candidate Republican Presidential Candidate

Unmarried Women

African American

+39 +33 +24 +36 +28 +91 +87 +81 +36

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

+44 +36 +35

Rising American Electorate

Hispanic

+40

Millennials

+23 +21

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- (ROTATE CLINTON/TRUMP) Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump,

(ROTATE JOHNSON/STEIN) Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

GOP can't get off ground but Democratic performance down

The Rising American Electorate (RAE) consists of millennials, minorities and unmarried women. Prior to 2016, RAE was defined as youth, minorities and unmarried women. The vote share for millennials and RAE in 2008 and 2012 uses data for 18-29 year olds.

Page 11: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

66 60 56 54

44 44

32 37 35

44 51

46

2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016

+23 +21 +10 +7 +2 +34

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- (ROTATE CLINTON/TRUMP) Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump,

(ROTATE JOHNSON/STEIN) Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

Millennial vote stable and white millennial vote up

Millennials White Millennials

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

The vote share for millennials in 2008 and 2012 uses data for 18-29 year olds.

Page 12: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

70 67 62

47 46 49

60 52

48 42

38 40

30 31 34

50 53 47

40 48 46

57 61

57

2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016 2008 2012 2016

Democratic Presidential Candidate Republican Presidential Candidate

+36 +28 +3 +7 +2 +20

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

+4 +2 +15

White Unmarried

Women

+40

White Married Women

+23 +17

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- (ROTATE CLINTON/TRUMP) Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump,

(ROTATE JOHNSON/STEIN) Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

Marriage gap shrinks: married vote Clinton, weaker unmarried from minorities

Married Women

Unmarried Women

Page 13: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

88

68 65 62 59 58 56 49

42 41 35

23 8

26 29 34 35 38 35

47 53 53

61

72

AfricanAmerican

Seculars Hispanic Unmarriedwomen

RisingAmericanElectorate

Collegewomen

Millenial Marriedwomen

Whiteunmarried

women

Men White non-collegewomen

White non-college

men

Hillary Clinton Donald Trump

Now let me ask you about the election for Congress. Did you vote for (ROTATE) the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate?

+80 +36 +24 +20 +11 +12 +26 +49

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

+21 +2

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- (ROTATE CLINTON/TRUMP) Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump,

(ROTATE JOHNSON/STEIN) Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

White working class now almost as Republican as minorities are Democratic

+28 +42

Page 14: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

4 4 3

11

6

10

21

37

ElectionDay

Last fewdays

Weekbefore

Duringdebates

Monthbefore

InSeptember

During thesummer

Before thesummer

13

When did you finally decide to vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE CHOSEN ): on Election Day, in the last few days before the election, the week before the election, during the debates, a month before the election, sometime in September, during the summer or before that?

WHEN DECIDED

Over 10 percent decided in the final week of the campaign

Convention or earlier

Last Week Fall

Page 15: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

36

50 52 43 47 45

53 45

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

HillaryClinton

DonaldTrump

14

When did you finally decide to vote for (INSERT CANDIDATE CHOSEN IN PRS16VT1/F): on Election Day, in the last few days before the election, the week before the election, during the debates, a month before the election, sometime in September, during the summer or before that?

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

Close broke for Trump heavily

+14 +2 +8

Convention or Earlier

Last Week During Debates September

+9

Page 16: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

40 36

29

43 35

55 50

64

52 61

Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16

Clinton Trump

26

15 22

31 23

64 69

58 57

72

Mar-16 Jul-16 Nov-16

White Non-College Women

White Non-College Men

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

White working class men Trump base, but the women broke late

Post-RNC Pre-DNC

Final Debate

End of Primaries

Post-RNC Pre-DNC

Final Debate

End of Primaries

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- (ROTATE CLINTON/TRUMP) Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump,

(ROTATE JOHNSON/STEIN) Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

+15 +14 +35 +9 +26 +38 +54 +36 +26 +49

Page 17: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

35 31

39

29

35 38

47 43 53

61

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16

Clinton Trump

+16

27 27 23 21

23

49 52 60 61

72

Aug-16 Sep-16 Oct-16 Nov-16

White Non-College Women

White Non-College Men

PRESIDENTIAL VOTE

White working class men Trump base, but the women broke late

Thinking about the presidential election, did you vote for -- (ROTATE CLINTON/TRUMP) Democrat Hillary Clinton, Republican Donald Trump,

(ROTATE JOHNSON/STEIN) Libertarian Gary Johnson, or Green Party Candidate Jill Stein?

+3 +4 +24 +22 +40 +25 +37

NBC/WSJ polls from August, September, October and pre-Election in November. 4-way vote presented except for in September.

+26 +49

Page 18: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

17

WINNING ON ECONOMIC CHANGE

Page 19: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

18

Clinton closed debates with mission: “to grow the economy to make it

fairer..stand up for families against powerful interests , against corporations”

9-1 corporations."

I have made the cause of children and

families really my life's work. That's what

my mission will be in the presidency. I will

stand up for families against powerful

interests, against corporations.

I'm reaching out to all

Americans.. We need everybody

to help.. Grow the economy to

make it fairer, to make it work for

everyone

Well I would like to say to everyone watching tonight that I'm reaching out to all Americans, Democrats, Republicans and

independents, because we need everybody to help make our country what it should be, to grow the economy, to make it

fairer, to make it work for everyone. We need your talents, your skills, your commitment, your energy, your ambition. You

know, I've been privileged to see the presidency up close, and I know the awesome responsibility of protecting our country and the

incredible opportunity of working to try to make life better for all of you. I have made the cause of children and families really my

life's work. That's what my mission will be in the presidency. I will stand up for families against powerful interests, against

corporations. I will do everything that I can to make sure that you have good jobs with rising incomes, that your kids have

good educations from preschool through college. I hope you will give me a chance to serve as your president.

Page 20: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

19

Clinton closed on unity and opportunity, not economic change

I think we can all agree it’s been a long campaign but tomorrow you get to pick our next president. So here are a few things that I hope you’ll think about. First it’s not just my name and my opponent’s name on the ballot. It’s the kind of country we want for our children and grandchildren. Is America dark and divisive. Or hopeful and inclusive? Our core values are being tested in this election. But everywhere I go people are refusing to be defined by fear and division. Look we all know we have come through some hard economic times and we have seen some pretty big changes. But I believe in our people. I love this country and I’m convinced that our best days are still ahead of us if we reach for them together. I want to be a president for all Americans not just those who support me in this election for everyone because we all have role to play in building a stronger fairer America. The second thing we want you to know is this I will work my heart as president to make life better for you and your family. We won’t always get it right but you can count on this I never quit and I never will. I’ll get up every day determined to make America safe and strong and make our economy work for every not just those at the top. And finally working for children and families has been the cause of my life but it’s never been more important than it is right but it’s never been more important that it is right now. This has to be or mission to give our kids and every American the chance to live up to their god given potential. So tonight I am asking for your vote and tomorrow let’s make history together.

CLINTON CLOSING MESSAGE

Page 21: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

20

Obama's closing message: build on the progress with experience

We've seen America turn recession into recovery. Our businesses create 15.5 million new jobs. Putting more people back to work than all the other advanced economies combined. A resurgent auto industry has led the fastest manufacturing growth since another Clinton was President. Incomes are rising. Poverty is falling. Twenty million more Americans have health insurance. Those are just the facts. And with just one more day to go, we now have the chance to elect a 45th President who will build on our progress. Who will finish the job. Who already has the respect of leaders around the world and the people they serve. Who is smart and who is steady and who is tested. Someone who comes to this office as well-prepared as anyone who has ever run -- The next President of the United States, Hillary Clinton. And that's how I know she will work her heart out for you – for everybody still in need of a good job or a raise; for every child who needs a sturdier ladder out of poverty; for every student who needs relief from student debt; every immigrant who wants to contribute to this country they love; for every American who has not yet felt the progress of these past eight years. She will work. And she will deliver. She won’t just tweet.

OBAMA CLOSING MESSAGE

Page 22: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

18

13

39

30

34

36

54

60

Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more

21

Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

Voters dissatisfied with economy's progress and fairness

We need a bold and comprehensive agenda to rewrite the rules of our economy so it

works for everyone and not just the wealthy.

We can make our economy work for everyone by building on our progress with

incremental changes.

Jobs still don't pay enough to live on and it is a struggle to save anything.

The economy is starting to get to full employment and a lot of people are finding

jobs that pay more.

Page 23: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

11

13

10

12

8

10

31

28

31

23

17

28

42

44

45

47

52

44

63

63

64

69

80

66

Things I care about strongly Somewhat more Haven't paid attention strongly Somewhat more

22

Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

RAE & working class say people in power aren’t listening

People in power haven't paid much attention to what I worry about.

The things I care about get the attention of people in power.

Total

Rising American Electorate

Unmarried Women

Minority

White Non College Women

White Non-College Men

Page 24: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

39

33

37

28

24

39

65

55

53

51

44

62

28

32

32

34

40

27

34

43

45

47

53

36

Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more

23

Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

Majority of unmarried women can't deal with a $500 bill

I would be able to handle a sudden unexpected $500 expense.

I would not be able to handle a sudden unexpected $500 expense.

Total

White non-college men

Rising American Electorate

White non-college women

Minority

Unmarried Women

Page 25: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

34

11

61

29 39

22 36 43

52

25

80

46

58

36

59 65

27 44

8

32 25 36

21 18

41

66

14

48 39

57

29 33

Spoke for working class strongly Appealed to resentments strongly

+66 +11 +21

Now I am going to read some pairs of short statements some people have made about our nation. After I read each

pair, please tell me which statement comes closer to your own view even if neither statement is exactly right.

Lots of RAE, including unmarried women, thought Trump

expressed legitimate frustration

24

Trump spoke for a lot of working class Americans who were rightly frustrated.

Total

+32

Donald Trump appealed to racial resentments more than working class problems.

Clinton

Voters

+41

Trump

Voters Unmarried

Women

White Non-

College

Men

White Non-

College

Women Minority

+30 +2 +19

White

Unmarried

women

Page 26: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

9

17

29

36

11

31

31

24

16

19

22

27

27

28

30

30

31

37

I just could not vote for Hillary Clinton

Will knock out ISIS and keep us safe

Would shake up the elite establishment and bring bigchange

Will block bad trade deals that cost jobs and will putAmerica first

His plans to build a border wall and get tough on illegalimmigration

A successful businessman who knows how to create jobs

His plans to cut taxes and regulations to grow theeconomy

He will block liberals from dominating the Supreme Court

His plans to repeal and replace Obamacare

Trump VoterConsidered Trump

Economy big part of Trump vote, shaking up elites for those who considered

25

(IF TRUMP) Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Donald Trump. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Donald Trump? (IF CONSIDERED TRUMP) why you considered voting for Donald Trump?

ARGUMENTS FOR TRUMP

His plans to repeal and replace Obamacare

He will block liberals from dominating the Supreme Court

His plans to cut taxes and regulations to grow the economy

A successful businessman who knows how to create jobs

His plans to build a border wall and get tough on illegal immigration

Would shake up the elite establishment and bring big change

Will block bad trade deals that cost jobs and will put America first

Will knock out ISIS and keep us safe

I just could not vote for Hillary Clinton

Page 27: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

18

14

23

18

23

12

10

15

39

41

57

37

41

28

15

28

20

22

12

18

15

26

60

36

45

42

25

36

40

54

80

59

Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more

26

Please tell me which one you agree with more, even if neither is exactly right.

Immigration not central to Trump vote, and trade more mixed

Immigrants today strengthen our country because of their hard work and talents.

Immigrants today are a burden on our country because they take our jobs, housing and health care.

Globalization and international trade creates more problem than benefits for me.

Globalization and international trade creates more benefits than problems for me.

Total

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Total

Democrats

Independents

Republicans

Page 28: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

17

9

17

12

26

9

32

8

19

11

34

8

18

13

24

9

19 16

23

7

Shift to DemShift to RepShift to DemShift to Rep ClintonTrump ClintonTrump Shift to DemShift to RepShift to DemShift to Rep ClintonTrump ClintonTrump ClintonTrump ClintonTrump

27

+8 +5

Total Unmarried

Women

White Non-

College

Women

+5 +15 +17 +24 +8 +26 +3 +16

Economic contrast would have been stronger close

GOP & Trump

Econ Contrast

GOP & Trump

Econ Contrast

GOP & Trump

Econ Contrast

GOP & Trump

Econ Contrast

GOP & Trump

Econ Contrast

Millennials

White

Unmarried

Women

CONGRESSIONAL VOTE SHIFTS Toward Democratic Candidate Toward Republican Candidate

GOP & TRUMP: Republican (REPCAND16) sometimes questions what Donald

Trump says, but they never spoke up about the hateful and racist things he said about

Mexicans as "rapists" or when Trump refused to renounce the support of former KKK

leader David Duke, or when Trump made disparaging remarks about veterans, Gold

Star families and people with disabilities. Republican candidates took far too long to

speak up about Trump's offensive behavior towards women, even when he referred to

them as "bimbos," "dogs,“ "disgusting," and "fat pigs," and said there should be a

"punishment" for women who seek an abortion. They said nothing about that. So, we

cannot afford to put (REPCAND16) in the U.S. Congress.

After hearing about the Republican candidates for Congress and Donald Trump,/ helping the richest, not the middle class, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today,

would you be voting for – DEMCAND16 or REPCAND16?

ECONOMIC CONTRAST: We need an economy for everyone, not just the rich

and well connected. But Republican (REPCAND16)) supports trickle down

economics and more tax cuts for the richest and special breaks for corporations.

And huge amounts of money are pouring in from the big oil companies and Wall

Street to support him. Well, that's not right. We need to rebuild the middle class.

We need to invest in families, education, jobs with rising incomes. Protect Social

Security by asking the richest to pay their fair share. So, we cannot afford to put

(REPCAND16) in the U.S. Congress.

Page 29: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

Clinton vote rooted in experience & temperament to be commander in chief &

governing for all backgrounds, but not economic plans

28

(IF CLINTON) Now let me read you a list of reasons to support Hillary Clinton. Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted for Hillary Clinton? (IF CONSIDERED CLINTON) considered voting for Hillary Clinton?

12

21

21

9

15

31

33

36

31

11

15

20

30

31

35

39

44

44

Relentlessly battles for change

Would be the first woman president

You just could not vote for Trump

Will continue Obama's progress

Her plans to grow the economy by raising taxes on the rich andinvesting in the middle class

Supports equal pay for women, a woman's right to choose andPlanned Parenthood

Understands foreign affairs and would be a better Commander inChief

Has the right temperament and experience to be president

Would govern for all Americans no matter their race, religion,gender, or background

Clinton voter

Considered Clinton

Has the right temperament and experience to be president

Would govern for all Americans no matter their race, religion, gender, or background

Understands foreign affairs and would be a better Commander in Chief

Supports equal pay for women, a woman's right to choose and Planned Parenthood

Her plans to grow the economy by raising taxes on the rich & investing in the middle class

Will continue Obama's progress

You just could not vote for Trump

Would be the first woman president

Relentlessly battles for change

ARGUMENTS FOR CLINTON

Page 30: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

Clinton prosecuted on treatment of minorities & trust with nukes, but not his

tax cuts & tax returns

29

(SKIP IF TRUMP AND DIDN'T CONSIDER CLINTON) Let me read you a list of doubts about Donald Trump. Regardless of your vote, which TWO describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Donald Trump?

DOUBTS ABOUT TRUMP

4

8

10

26

13

33

15

49

2

7

12

15

19

25

26

47

Because he's a Republican

Defends Vladimir Putin, Russian aggression overseas andinterference in our election

Only cares about himself

Thinks women should be punished for seeking an abortion andwould overturn Roe v. Wade

Wants big tax cuts for the wealthiest and his own family, whilerefusing to release his tax returns

Said disrespectful and sexually aggressive things about women

Is too thin-skinned to have control of nuclear weapons

Said hateful things about minorities, immigrants, Muslims, andpeople with disabilities

Clinton Voter

Considered Clinton

Said hateful things about minorities, immigrants, Muslims, and people with disabilities

Said disrespectful and sexually aggressive things about women

Is too thin-skinned to have control of nuclear weapons

Thinks women should be punished for seeking an abortion and would overturn Roe v. Wade

Only cares about himself

Wants big tax cuts for the wealthiest and his own family, while refusing to release his tax returns

Defends Vladimir Putin, Russian aggression overseas and interference in our election

Because he's a Republican

Page 31: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

1

17

12

18

8

20

23

42

15

8

11

12

20

26

33

44

Because she is a Democrat

Just another DC elite insider who won't get anything done

Will raise taxes

Beholden to too many wealthy donors and Wall Street

Will pack the Supreme Court with liberal Justices

Would be four more years of President Obama's policies

Showed bad judgement as Secretary of State and madethe world less safe

Lied about her private email server and mishandledclassified information

Trump VoterConsidered Trump

Emails dominate doubt about HRC, her wealthy donors opened them to Trump

30

(SKIP IF CLINTON IN PRS16VT1/F AND DIDN'T CONSIDER TRUMP IN CHNCDT) Let me read you a list of doubts about Hillary Clinton. Regardless of your vote, which TWO describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Hillary Clinton?

DOUBTS ABOUT CLINTON

Lied about private email server & mishandled classified information

Showed bad judgement as Secretary of State & made world less safe

Will pack the Supreme Court with liberal Justices

Would be four more years of President Obama's policies

Just another DC elite insider who won't get anything done

Beholden to too many wealthy donors and Wall Street

Will raise taxes

Because she is a Democrat

Page 32: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

12

16

22

23

24

26

38

45

47

For change

Never Trump

Economic plan to tax rich

First woman president

Obama progress

Better Commander in Chief

Temperament

Governs for all

Protects women

Unmarried women pick Clinton to protect women, never heard economic plan

31

(IF CLINTON, CONSIDERERED) Which THREE describe the most important reasons why you voted /considered voting for Hillary Clinton?

UNMARRIED WOMEN

Arguments for Clinton Doubts about Trump

1

3

9

11

18

18

32

45

Republican

Defends Russia

Selfish

Pro-life

Nuclear threat

Tax cuts for rich

Disrespects women

Racist, xenophic, ableist

(SKIP IF TRUMP DIDN'T CONSIDER CLINTON) Regardless of your vote, which TWO describe the most important reasons NOT to vote for Donald Trump?

Page 33: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

32

GOP trusted on economy and safety, Democrats on uniting country

Uniting the country

Reviving the middle class

Bringing the right kind of change

The economy

Keeping America safe

+18

+7

+2

+6

+10

Now, I am going to read you a list of issues and I want you to tell me whether, overall, you think (ROTATE) the Democrats or the Republicans would do a better job with each issue.

32

29

27

25

17

48

48

43

42

31

25

27

33

33

33

38

42

45

49

49

Much more Somewhat more Much more Somewhat more

Page 34: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

33

WHAT NEXT

Page 35: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

Let me read you some things the presidential candidates were saying during their campaign. Did you hear any of the presidential

candidates say this during the campaign, yes or no? Did that statement make you more or less likely to support them?

Heard women’s economic agenda, not political reform, education, clean energy

CLINTON ECONOMIC AGENDA

TAKE ON MONEY IN POLITICS: Our democracy should work for everyone, not just the wealthy and well-connected. I will appoint Supreme Court Justices who will protect the right to vote, require outside groups to disclose their political spending so we get dark unaccountable money out of politics, and empower small donors.

INVEST IN CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY: We can tackle the urgent threat of climate change by becoming the world's clean energy superpower, creating millions of good-paying jobs in the process. I want to invest in renewable energy, install half a billion solar panels by the end of my first term, and generate enough clean energy to power every home by 2020.

WOMEN’S ECONOMIC AGENDA: It's time our policies reflect how families live and work in the 21st century so women can get and keep better paying jobs. Let's ensure equal pay for women, guarantee 12 weeks of paid family leave, expand the child tax credit and make quality affordable childcare a reality.

IMPROVE EDUCATION AT ALL LEVELS: Every child deserves a high-quality education, regardless of their zip code. We must expand access to early childhood education, empower our teachers and invest in our schools at all levels. That means modernizing our schools, updating our curriculums for the 21st century and expanding broadband internet access.

34

11

7

7

17

13

26

29

24

30

41

42

36

53

Much less likely to support

Much more likely to supportDid NOT

Hear

21%

37%

39%

41%

Page 36: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

Let me read you some things the presidential candidates were saying during their campaign. Did you hear any of the presidential

candidates say this during the campaign, yes or no? Did that statement make you more or less likely to support them?

The issue: ¼ RAE didn’t hear women’s agenda, 4-in-10 other key RAE policies

CLINTON ECONOMIC AGENDA

TAKE ON MONEY IN POLITICS: Our democracy should work for everyone, not just the wealthy and well-connected. I will appoint Supreme Court Justices who will protect the right to vote, require outside groups to disclose their political spending so we get dark unaccountable money out of politics, and empower small donors.

INVEST IN CLEAN ENERGY ECONOMY: We can tackle the urgent threat of climate change by becoming the world's clean energy superpower, creating millions of good-paying jobs in the process. I want to invest in renewable energy, install half a billion solar panels by the end of my first term, and generate enough clean energy to power every home by 2020.

WOMEN’S ECONOMIC AGENDA: It's time our policies reflect how families live and work in the 21st century so women can get and keep better paying jobs. Let's ensure equal pay for women, guarantee 12 weeks of paid family leave, expand the child tax credit and make quality affordable childcare a reality.

IMPROVE EDUCATION AT ALL LEVELS: Every child deserves a high-quality education, regardless of their zip code. We must expand access to early childhood education, empower our teachers and invest in our schools at all levels. That means modernizing our schools, updating our curriculums for the 21st century and expanding broadband internet access.

35

7 10

6

7

10

26

28

26

34

40

40

42

53

Much less likely to support Much more likely to support Did NOT

Hear

24%

38%

42%

42%

Rising American Electorate

Page 37: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

42 24 26

11 13 22 11

54 43 42

31 32 38

27

32 33 43 31 36

48 42

39 44 50 46 51 53 54

Very warm (75-100) Warm (51-74) Very cool (0-25) Cool (26-49)

Republicans in Congress & Trump end as tarnished brands

36

Now, I'd like to rate your feelings toward some people and organizations, with one hundred meaning a VERY WARM, FAVORABLE

feeling; zero meaning a VERY COLD, UNFAVORABLE feeling; and fifty meaning not particularly warm or cold.

Mean: 39.0

Net: -15

Mean: 55.5

Net: +15 Net: -15

Mean: 42.1

Net: -8

Mean: 43.7

Net: -1

Mean: 47.7

Barack Obama

Democratic Party

Mean: 37.2

Net: -27

Republicans in Congress

Paul Ryan

Republican Party

Hillary Clinton

Donald Trump

Net: -19

Mean: 41.4

Most favorable Least favorable

Page 38: Why?€¦ · National phone survey of 1,300 2016 Voters. This survey took place Monday, November 7 – Wednesday November 9, 2016 among 1,300 voters or (on Monday only) those with

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 10 G Street, NE Suite 500 Washington, DC 20002 Phone: +1 202 478 8300 Fax: +1 202 478 8301

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Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 350-1 First Canadian Place Toronto Board of Trade Tower Toronto, ON M5K 1C1 Phone: +1 647 526 6754

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner 25 Broadway 9th Floor New York, NY 10004 T: (212) 231 0050

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