10/20/2017 1

New Evidence on the Impacts of Reading/Literacy: A

Discussion with the Members of the GRN Community

of Practice

Oct 13, 2017

Luis Crouch

RTI International

Why Invest in Early Grade

Reading?

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Background

• Based on research paper and policy brief funded by USAID

via All Children Reading-Asia activity, with some added

material

• Purpose: evidence on why investments in EGR create a

mutual benefit relationship between individuals and

societies both in donor and recipient country

• Provide explicit emphasis on the how these investments

will benefit U.S. economy and national security

Outline

2. What are the “channels” whereby this works?

1. How important is education and literacy to countries’

potential as trade partners? To countries’ political and

social stability? To migration and labor relationships?

4. Do children and youth in US partner countries have the

literacy skills required to be good partners in trade and

political stability?

3. Why does it help to invest early?

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Introduction

• Interconnections exist between education, human capital,

individual skills, economy, and social progress.

• Recent investments by USAID focus on improving literacy

in the early grades due to impact it can have on individuals’

livelihoods and societal progress

• Our definition of literacy is not dichotomous (literate vs.

illiterate) but literacy as a functional ability and skill

– Cumulative skills learned over time

– Allows a reader to do something as a result of his/her

ability (e.g. achieve one’s goals or develop other

knowledge and potential)

Sources: OECD, 2002; Roskos et al, 2009

Some key relationships

Trade

Migration

Stability

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Next 3 slides methodology

• Sort countries by years of education

• Group worst-, middle-, and most-educated partners

• See the trade, migration, and stability levels for the

three groups

• Causality????

7

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600

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Countries' education and imports from US in 3 groups of countries by ed level

Years of education of the countries Imports from US into the countries

Nige, MozMali, Sene

Thai, Uru,Boli, Gabo

Irel, Kore, Esto, UK

Sources: WB Barro-Lee, US Dept of Commerce

5.4

8.8

12.1

46%50%

64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

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8.0

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Avg

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ars

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Yrs of ed and skilled immigration to US(of countries sending > 100,000)

Years of education of the countries Proportion of immigrants highly skilled

Guat, Pak,Hait, Hond

Phi l , Guya,Peru, Col

Japa, Kor,

UK, Canada

8

Sources: WB Barro-Lee, US Dept of Commerce

3.0

8.5

12.5

0.05

1.20

1.95

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0.50

1.00

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WB

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Political stability and education levels

Years of education of population WB Index of political stability

Nige, Moz, Mali, Sene

Boli, Gabo, Phil, Qata

Kore, Esto, UK, Cana

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Sources: WB Barro-Lee, WB Index of Political Stability

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Can one “standardize” these effects?

Concept Step of change Standardized effect

Imports from US into the countries

Low ed. to medium ed. 0.4

Medium ed. to higher ed. 1.2

Skilled migration into the US

Low ed. to medium ed. 0.2

Medium ed. to higher ed. 0.8

Political stability

Low ed. to medium ed. 1.1

Medium ed. to higher ed. 0.7

Benchmarks: Medium 0.5, Large 0.8, Very large 1.2

Is this “magic?”

How does it happen?

Is it causal?

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How does this actually happen?

• Education makes you richer because it makes you more

productive

• Richer people are better trade partners

• Countries with more education seem to send more educated

migrants, even disproportionately so; relatively few unskilled folks

from skilled countries come to US.

• Educated people tend to have more stake in stability; they are

more conservative because there is more to conserve; they are

also able to demand and negotiate gov’t accountability

Returns to Education: “Education makes you richer”

• Each additional year of

completed education

yields about a 10%

increase in wages, on

average, across

economies.

– Returns higher women >

men

– Decrease in returns to

years of schooling over the

last few decades

– Returns are higher (and

remain in high, in general) in

developing countries where

school attainment levels

tend to be low

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Source: Montenegro & Patrinos, 2014

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0%10.0%12.0%14.0%16.0%

Tertiary education

(N=762)

Secondary education

(N=619)

Primary education

(N=547)

Average across all levels

(N=819)

Returns to Schooling

Average

Payoffs of Cognitive Skills

14

Sources: Hanuskek et al., 2013; Valerio et al., 2016

• Programme for the International Assessment of Adult Competencies (PIACC)

– Collects data in OECD economies using measures of literacy, numeracy, and problem solving

– Data shows positive and independent associations of each skill with higher wages and probability of being employed

• Skills towards Employability and Productivity (STEP)

– Measures cognitive skills through direct literacy assessments in low and middle-income countries

– Increase in1standard deviation in literacy skills results in about 15% increase in an individual’s hourly earnings in Vietnam

– Effects are highest for the lowest income economies in the sample

Is this causal?

• Not all: much is largely causal

– But some is only correlational

• Not many RCTs for complex societal effects like these!

• But some

• And take advantage of natural randomization

• Finally, “it is all of a whole”

– Causation is in “virtuous” and “vicious” cycles and feedback loops

– Education is part of it—a big part, but only part of it

– See next slide

15 CONFIDENTIAL

Education Productivity Income

Demand and

affordability

of education

Skilled

labor and

citizenry

Skilled birth

attendants

Lower

infant

mortality

Smaller

number of

children per

family

Skills to

demand and

supply

accountability

Quality of

education

Improved

governance

Improved

investment

climate

Increased

physical

investment

Increased

affordability of

specialized

goods,

propensity to

trade

Demand

and supply

of trade

Societal Effects of Increased Literacy

• Correlations between education and societal development happen in parallel and tend to be mutually supportive

• Gains from increased literacy extend far beyond the individual level and have significant effects on many aspects of society

• Nepal: Longitudinal study found women with higher literacy and participation in basic ed has an impact on ability to contribute to political affairs and school/community issues around children’s wellbeing

• Rwanda: National village-level data on education and literacy showed enhanced literacy levels were associated with lower likelihood of participation in violence during the genocide

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Sources: Burchfield, Hal, Baral, & Rocha, 2002; Yanagizawa-Drott, 2012

Why “Early?”

Why start with basic proficiencies?

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Why early?

• Previous slides cast in terms of total years of education

• So, why early?

• Education is extremely path-dependent

– What happens early makes possible, or precludes, what

happens later

– Knowledge/skills build on knowledge/skills

– “Matthew Effects”

• Fixing problems later is 4X more expensive than preventing

them early

Grade in years and months (thus 1. is 6 months into Grade 1)

6

Data from the US

Children below a certain level by

the end of Grade 1, stay behind

forever, and the gap widens

And, if they cannot read, they fall

behind in everything else

Wo

rds p

er

min

ute

Good, Simmons, Smith (1998) 20

Why early? Matthew Effects in Reading

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Why early? Matthew effects in developing countries too

-0.1

-0.05

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

2nd gradeachvmt

Girl HH wealth Mother ed Teacherexp

Schoolsupplies

School infra

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Matthew Effects Other Languages/Settings?

• Some literature, yes (see reference list), for Dutch, German,

Swedish, maybe not so in Greek (but probably methodology

differences more than language differences)

• Also quasi-longitudinal evidence from pilots and demonstration

projects (see next slide)

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Some interesting experiences from demonstration projects in Asia

Vietnam

Some countries, such as Vietnam: so

efficient and equalizing that it is

hard even for a very effective NGO

to improve on the comparison

schools. In other cases, yes. In those

cases, likely there is an underlying

Matthew effect that could be

ameliorated if the country adopted

the NGO’s practices.

Source: Room to Read Global Monitoring Reports 2014 and 2015

0

20

40

60

80

Level 1 Level 2 Level 3 Level 4 Level 5TIMSS Proficiency Level

Percentage of Students by TIMSS Proficiency Level

(countries’ order of entry into slide from low to high average proficiency)

Countries make most progress by eliminating pockets of low perf.

Download of TIMSS Data

Do children in partner countries have

literacy skills for participation in further

education and workforce?

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Sector Growth Trajectory

Reading Comprehension

ImportanceFarming, Fishing, and Forestry India (-) ASEAN (-) 14

Manufacturing and Production India (-) ASEAN (-) 11

Services 7

- Business and Financial

Operations

India (=) ASEAN (+) 3

- Architecture and Engineering India (+) 3

- Legal ASEAN (+) 3

- Life, Physical, and Social

Sciences

3

- Computer and Mathematical India (+) 4

- Education and Training India (+) 4

- Office and Administrative India (-) 4

-- Management India (+) 5

-- Healthcare 5

- Community, Social, and

Protective Services

6

- Sales and Related India (=) ASEAN (+) 7

- Arts, Design, Entertainment,

Sports, & Media

India (-) 7

- Transportation and Logistics India (+) ASEAN (+) 12

- Installation and Maintenance India (+) 13

- Hospitality and Food 14

- Construction and Extraction 14

Reading comprehension is key to growing sectors…

Using India and ASEAN as cases in point

• This

• is

• how

• most

• 3rd-grade kids

• in

• potential partnercountries

• read, at best

•

• This

• is

• how

• most

• 3rd-grade kids

• in

• rich countries (OECD)

• read

•

Yet, using hard data on reading, this is the reality…

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In Asia, better, reading more fluently, but reading what exactly?

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.53.0

3.54.0

4.5

5.0

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

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om

pre

hen

sio

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Perc

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f G

rad

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Filip

ino

stu

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Correct words per minute read

English fluency Filipino fluency English comp Filipino comp

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And, when averages are not too bad, regional variation is big

47%56%

42%33%

23%

26%25%

28%

29%

27%

21%17%

24%27%

28%

6% 3% 5%12%

22%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

National Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan-Sulawesi MNP

Reading fluently with comprehension Reading with comprehension

Reading with limited comprehension Nonreader

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Literacy skills in potential partner countries

• Many countries remain only as potential partners: lack of the most fundamental skills (e.g., sheer fluency in early grades) is barrier

• Reading ability in early years is predictive of reading outcomes in later years. That is, early readers are in a better position to use their reading ability to learn and prepare themselves for the world of work.

• Countries make most progress by reducing proportion of population with the lowest levels of skills.

• Where partners have made some progress with basics (mostly Asia), still not reading with comprehension First, literacy is not synonymous with reading fluency.

• Even in Asia, significant proportion of population does not meet the requisite skills for basic jobs in the region.

• Though most individuals assessed and interviewed through the STEP Skills initiative (WB) claimed that their jobs required them to read frequently, many respondents did not pass the core reading component of the assessment.

Policy implications

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1. Investment in early literacy is key to educational

development.

2. Educational development aligns with key aims: political

stability, trade, growth.

3. But many countries lag in ability to partner because of lack

of education and especially foundational skills in reading.

4. US has track record in addressing these early literacy

issues—more so than any other bilateral development

agency—through USAID’s experience.

5. But literacy has not been achieved even though the

evidence on how to do it is clear.

6. The time to invest is now.

Questions or comments?

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References

Burchfield, S., Hau, H., Baral, D., & Rocha, V. (2002). A longitudinal study of the effect of integrated and basic education programs on women’s participation in social and economic development in Nepal. Funded by the United States Agency for International Development and the Office of Women in Development. New York: World Education, Inc.

Hanushek, E., Schwerdt, G., Wiederhold, S., & Woessmann, L. (2013). Returns to skills from around the world: Evidence from PIAAC. National Bureau of Economics Research (NBER) Working Paper. Cambridge, MA: NBER.

Montenegro, C., & Patrinos, H. (2014). Comparable estimates to the returns of schooling around the world. Policy Research Working Paper 7020. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, Education Global Practice Group. Retrieved from: http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/830831468147839247/Comparable-estimates-of-returns-to-schooling-around- the-world

Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD). (2002). Education at a Glance. From the Glossary of Statistical Terms. Paris: OECD Publishing.

Roskos, K., D. Strickland, J. Haase, & S. Malik. (2009). First principles for early grades reading programs in developing countries. Prepared for USAID/EQUIP1 Project. Retrieved from: http://www.equip123.net/docs/e1-EarlyGradesToolkit.pdf

Valerio, A., Puerta, M., Tognatta, N., & Taborda, S. M. (2016). Are there skills payoffs in low- and middle-Income countries? Empirical evidence using STEP data. Policy Research Working Paper 7879. Washington, DC: World Bank Group, Education Global Practice Group. Retrieved from: http://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-7879

Yanagizawa-Drott, D. (2012). Propaganda and conflict: Theory and evidence from the Rwandan genocide. CID Working Paper No. 257. Harvard University: Center for International Development.

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References on Matthew Effects

Dutch yes: Janwillem, B. and P. Reitsma. 1998. "Analyzing the Development of Individual

Differences in Terms of Matthew Effects in Reading: Results From a Dutch Longitudinal

Study." Developmental Psychology.Vol. 34, No. 6, 1373-1399.

German yes: Pfost, M., D. Tobias and C. Artelt. 2011. "Reading competence development of

poor readers in a German elementary school sample: an empirical examination of the

Matthew effect model." Journal of Research in Reading. Volume 35, Issue 4, 2012, pp 411–

426.

Greek somewhat dissenting view: Protopapas, A. R. Parrila, P.Simos. 2016. "In Search of

Matthew Effects in Reading.“ Journal of Learning Disabilities. Vol. 49(5) 499–514.

Swedish yes: Kempe, C. and A. Eriksson-Gustavsson. 2011. "Are There any Matthew Effects in

Literacy and Cognitive Development?" Scandinavian Journal of Educational Research. Vol. 55,

No. 2, April 2011, 181–196.

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