why i still don't have a femtocell
DESCRIPTION
Presentation from Avren's Femtocell America's 2009 Conference.TRANSCRIPT
Washington DC / Paris
A Personal Case Study
Peter N. Jarich, Service Director
November 2009
Why I Still Don’t Have a Femtocell
Agenda
Who I Am
Why I Don’t Have a Femtocell...Yet nascent offers no need for coverage no need for capacity no need for cheap voice nascent enterprise development never coming to my office over-sold expectations x-femto confusion operators don’t need me
Takeaways & Friends how the industry can get one into my hands building on today’s successes
2
Who Am I: The Jarich Household
3
Who Am I: The Jarich Household
4
Who Am I: Why I’m A Femto Candidate
5
Why No Femto: Nascent Offers
2.1 Offers
No 3G For Me
Nothing in My Set-top
Wouldn’t Even Know They Existed if I Wasn’t In The Industry
Understandable Explorations
6
Why No Femto: Value of Coverage?
7
Source: Verizon Wireless
Why No Femto: Value of Coverage?
8
Why No Femto: Value of Capacity?
how much capacity do I need?
function of coverage
help is on the way...9
Why No Femto: Value of Capacity?
how much capacity do I need?
function of coverage
help is on the way...10
@pnjarich
Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice?
How much voice do I use?
How much voice do I pay for? mobile-to-mobile calling circle nights & weekends
Big Buckets and All You Can Eat
11Source: Boost Mobile
Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice?
How much voice do I use?
How much voice do I pay for? mobile-to-mobile calling circle nights & weekends
Big Buckets and All You Can Eat
12
Source: metroPCS
Why No Femto: Value of Cheap Voice?
How much voice do I use?
How much voice do I pay for? mobile-to-mobile calling circle nights & weekends
Big Buckets and All You Can Eat
13Source: T-Mobile
Why No Femto: Enterprise on Hold
No Shortage of Solutions
No Shortage of Architectures
No Shortage of Will? managed mobile success? what size enterprise? all a metro-femto ploy?
14
Source: AirWalk Communications
Source: Airvana
Source: SpiderCloud
Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations
15
growth just a few years away– driven by tech– driven by operator demands– driven by more and more users
per femto standard five-year hockey stick
none
lots
Why No Femto: Unrealistic Expectations
Market Timing “unit shipments
expected to grow 10-fold from 2007 to 2008…”
“2008 will be THE year for femto launches…”
“100+ million users by 2011…”
“the enterprise will pick up fastest, given the uncertain timing and cost-constraints of the residential space…”
Ecosystem consumer electronics
trajectory silicon trajectory application trajectory network standards
trajectory …all of which was
downplayed
16
Why No Femto: X-Femto Confusion
Nobody Will Deny the 3G cell-edge problem the importance of spatial
efficiency operator interest in metro-femto
deployment models the importance of the Femto
Forum’s “Class” designations
Timing is Another Issue it’s not a place to start LTE preoccupation how ready is the tech?
17
Remember This?
Takeaways: Segmenting Today’s Holdups
Supply limited offers form factor diversity tech worries tech options market investigations sales investigations unreasonable
expectations bigger priorities
Demand cheap voice is not
enough better coverage is not
enough better data capacity is
not enough marketing isn’t there… …and it’s not just about
the newness of the market
18
Takeaways: Marketing, Really?
19
“let’s talk about coverage…”
“…and our big plans for tomorrow.”
Source: www.vzw.com
Takeaways: Today’s Strategy
20
coverage retention do-it-yourself niche…at best
Takeaways: The Way Forward
Current Model Is Not Sustainable niche marketing may deliver ROI to operators it will not drive market scale
Drive Supply operators need to see this as strategic / not tactical operators need to know the tech issues are solved (almost) operators need to know that WiFi isn’t coming to feature phones build on successes – technical and business
Drive Demand need tariff innovation need aspirations & applications
Do Not Underestimate The Window WiFi is making headway LTE: friend vs. foe apps are coming, with or without femto
21
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