why hsr is a profitable business case for scandinavia hsr in a global perspective higher performance...
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WHY HSR IS A PROFITABLE BUSINESS CASE FOR SCANDINAVIA
• HSR in a global perspective• Higher performance and reduced cost• Revenues• National finance boost the GDP with HSR
High speed lines in a global perspective
Europe
Moskva
Kijev
Minsk
Warszawa
St PetersburgHelsingfors
Berlin
MünchenBudapest
BukarestMilano
Rom
AtenAnkara
Istanbul
Paris
London
Amsterdam
Madrid
Lissabon
Hamburg
Bryssel
Sofia
Questions
Why: • do 66 countries in the world build HSR• do they build 1000 km in 5 years• do they afford the investment for HSR• do the HSR system promote international
traffic• are the Scandinavian countries the last to
know what the rest of the world knows today
Scandinavians reads
SPAINFRANCEGERMANYGREECEITALYPORTUGALTHENEDERLANDSBELGIUMPOLANDUKRAINERUMANIASOUTHAFRICACHINAJAPANTAIWANINDIATHEILANDLAOSMALAYSIABRASILARGENTINACHILEVENESUELAUSACANADAMAROCOALGERTUNISEGYPTSAUDIARABIAKUWEITBAHARINQATARRUSSIAKAZAKSTANUZBEKISTANISRAELMEXICOFINLANDGREATBRITANSWITZERLANDAUSTRIAHUNGARYRUMANIABULGARIATURKEYRUSSIAIRANIRAQUNITEDARABEMIRATESOMANSOUTHKOREAMYANMARAUSTRALIALIBYA
The world reads
SPAINFRANCEGERMANYGREECEITALYPORTUGALTHENEDERLANDSBELGIUMPOLANDUKRAINERUMANIASOUTHAFRICACHINAJAPANTAIWANINDIATHAILANDLAOSMALAYSIABRASILARGENTINACHILEVENESUELAUSACANADAMAROCOALGERTUNISEGYPTSAUDIARABIAKUWEITBAHARINQATARRUSSIAKAZAKSTANUZBEKISTANISRAELMEXICOFINLANDGREATBRITANSWITZERLANDAUSTRIAHUNGARYRUMANIABULGARIATURKEYRUSSIAIRANIRAQUNITEDARABEMIRATESOMANSOUTHKOREAMYANMARAUSTRALIALIBYA
Conclusions
• Reports over value the use of car and air transport and under value rail transport
• Building phase for HSR is 1000 km in 5 years• Scandinavian building phase for CR is 200 km in 10 years• Price level is about 150 000 SEK/meter double track
– 65 000 SEK/meter for HSR for 400 km/h– 75 000 SEK/meter for CR with 200 – 250 km/h
• 66 countries has HSR• Travelling with HSR increases market 4 times!• Scandinavia is the latest part of the world to understand HSR!• Our competitiveness is jeopardised!
Europe
Moskva
Kijev
Minsk
Warszawa
St PetersburgHelsingfors
Berlin
MünchenBudapest
BukarestMilano
Rom
AtenAnkara
Istanbul
Paris
London
Madrid
Lissabon
Hamburg
Bryssel
Sofia
Amsterdam
Europe
Moskva
Kijev
Minsk
Warszawa
St PetersburgHelsingfors
Berlin
MünchenBudapest
BukarestMilano
Rom
AtenAnkara
Istanbul
Paris
London
Amsterdam
Madrid
Lissabon
Bryssel
Sofia
Stockholm
Oslo
Köpenhamn
Hamburg
ÅLBORG
ODENSE
KÖPENHAMN
HAMBURG
JÖNKÖPING
NORRKÖPING
STOCKHOLM
GÖTEBORG
BERGENOSLO
STAVANGER
TRONDHEIM
KRISTIANSANDFROM OSLO TO:GÖTEBORG 1:15KÖPENHAMN 2:30STOCKHOLM 3:15
FROM GÖTEBORG TO:OSLO 1:15STOCKHOLM 2:00KÖPENHAMN 1:15
1:151:15
2:00
ÅRHUS
High speed lines in a global perspective
Why does the world invest in HSR?
• It is commersially profitable• It is cheaper to build HSR than CR• Safe long term investment for retirement
funds• Reduce crazy stock market values and trading• Most environmental friendly mean of
transport• Competitive with air transport up to 3 hours
Environment
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500
-600
-700
0
100
200
Billion Euro / Year in EU15
Car Train Air Boat
Total extern cost
Subsideries
Cost
for s
ocie
ty
- 750 bn -100 bn - 125 bn -10 bn
Source: EEA 2007
Environment
400
300
200
100
0
500
600
700
SEK / 1000 pkm
Car
Train
Air
Real
env
ironm
ent o
st
650 SEK
197 SEK
455 SEK
Source: INFRAS 2004
Bus326 SEK
Noice
100
90
80
70
60
50
110
120
130dB(A)
Aerodynamic
Rails
Totalt noice
Källa: EC 2003
Motor
0 50040030020010050 Km/h
Market share
70
60
50
40
30
20
80
90
100%
Source: JR500400300200100 600 Km/h
10
0
700 800 900 1000 0
Bil & Buss
Svenska tåg
CR Train
Car & Bus
Air
Market share
70
60
50
40
30
20
80
90
100%
Source: JR
500400300200100 600 Km/h
10
0
700 800 900 1000 0
Car & Bus
High speed train
Air
Environment profit
70
60
50
40
30
20
80
90
100%
Source: JR
500400300200100 600 Km/h
10
0
700 800 900 1000 0
Bil & Buss
Svenska tåg
CR train
Car& Bus
Air
High Speed Train
Swedish Rail Market
• 105 million trips per year 1999 = 11,8 trips/pp
Swedish Rail Market
• 105 million trips per year 1999 = 11,8 trips/pp• 187 million trips per year 2011 = 19,7 trips/pp
TRACK CAPACITY IS SOON FULLWE HAVE CAPACITY PROBLEMS
+ 82 million trips !!People ride trains more !
Swedish Rail Market
• 105 million trips per year 1999 = 11,8 trips/pp• 187 million trips per year 2011 = 19,7 trips/pp• 275 million trips per year 2023 = 27,0 trips/pp
TRACK IS OVER LOADED WE HAVE A TRAFFIC COLLAPSE
HIGH SPEED LINES GIVESINCREASED CAPACITY AND MORE TRAVLLERS
TRAFFIC COLLAPSE IS VOIDED
+ 88 million trips !!People rides the train more often !
Infrastructure cost per meter?
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
Botnia line> 250 km/h
SEK
10 000
0
Express Way
Global HSR < 250 km/h
ConventionalRail in Sweden
High Way
Road
BallastRail
Sub-structure
Sub-structure
Asphalt
Infrastructure per meter?
70 000
60 000
50 000
40 000
30 000
20 000
80 000
90 000
100 000
Botnia line< 250 km/h
SEK
10 000
0
Express WayGlobal HSR> 250 km/h
Conventional Rail in Sweden
High Way
Road
Electrification
Signalling
BallastRail
Sub-structure
Sub-structure
Asphalt
Electrification
Conventional rail High speed rail
0 SEK/m
Signalling system
Conventional rail High speed rail
20 000 SEK/m
Superstructure
Conventional rail High speed rail
5000 SEK/m
Substructure
3 m
26 m
13 m
6 m
Conventional rail High speed rail
34 000 SEK/m
45 000 SEK/m
Land use
3 m
26 m
13 m
6 m
Conventional rail High speed rail
4 000 SEK/m 100 SEK/m
Land use CR and HSR
Land prices and agriculture
Less tunnels more bridges10,6 meter 10,6 meter
Hallandsåstunneln cost 12 bn SEK
Less tunnels more bridges10,6 meter
Hallandsåstunneln two pipesCost 12 bn SEK
4.5 m
10,8 meter
High speed rail tunnels one pipe Cost 6 bn SEK
Construction cost
• Gasoline price has been doubled in 12 years• Car use has been unchanged per person in 12 years
• Superstructure cost 2002 was 1775 SEK/m• Superstructure cost 2012 was 2635 SEK/m
• Grödinge line cost 2,7 bn or 43 548 SEK/m 1994• Botnia line cost 15 bn or 78 947 SEK/m 2010
Use of moneySystem Conventional rail High speed rail Comment
Electrification system 4 200 SEK/m 2 500 SEK/m No fundaments
Signalling system 16 000 SEK/m No signalls
Track system 5 000 SEK/m 2 250 SEK/m Sleepers in slab
Ballast 2 500 SEK/m In bridge
Substructure 4 000 SEK/m In bridge
Drainage system 900 SEK/m In bridge
Noice, service road, snow 3 900 SEK/m In bridge
Ground preparation 30 000 SEK/m 4 000 SEK/m
Land use cost 4 000 SEK/m 100 SEK/m
Bridge and slabb track 45 000 SEK/m
Project managment 8 447 SEK/m 8 566 SEK/m
TOTAL 78 947 SEK/m 62 416 SEK/m HSR chepest
CostSystem Conventional rail High speed rail
Railway system 78 947 SEK/m 62 416 SEK/m
Distance 2 x 600 km 94,7 bn SEK 74,9 bn SEK
Construction time 12 year 4 year
Construction intrest 4 % 45,5 bn 12,0 bn
Cost 140,2 bn 86,9 bn
Speed / Travel time > 250 km/h; 4.00 h 400 km/h; 2.00 h
Market 5 million trips 9 million trips
Market value per year 2,5 bn SEK 4,5 bn SEK
Turn over time 56 year 19 year
Investment profitsSystem SEK / m and year Increast price per year
Superstructure 1775 SEK/m 2002 86 SEK/m/year
Grödinge line 43 548 SEK/m 1994 2 212 SEK/m/year
Botnia line 78 947 SEK/m 2010
Oslo – Köpenhamn HSL 62 416 SEK/m 2012
Stand-by cost 2,7 bn SEK per year to wait for theHigh speed line Oslo – Copenhagen !
7,4 million/day
HSR is a GDP Driver
• The state guarantees 225 bn SEK for HSR• The state gets repaid in 30 years• This triggers domestic investments of 350 bn
SEK in 5 years • No unemployment• Creates 4000 commuters to Norway• This equals to boost the GDP with 3% in 5 years
Funding
STATENORWAY
60 bn
EU20 bn
TRAFIKVERKET & JERNBANEVERKET
TRAFFIC FEE 500 SEK/PP
STATESWEDEN
60 bn
CONSTRUCTIONTIME
12 YEAR
COST140 bn SEK
Funding
STATENORWAY2 bn/year
RENT
EU0 bn
SCANDINAVIAN HIGH SPEED CONTRACTORS
TRAFFIC FEE 500 SEK/PP
STATESWEDEN2 bn/year
RENT
CONSTRUCTIONTIME
4 YEAR
COST87 bn SEK
Funding
COINCO ORDER THE CONSTRUCTION
SCANDINAVIAN HIGH SPEED CONTRACTORS
TRAFFIC FEE 500 SEK/PP
CONSTRUCTIONTIME
4 YEAR
COST87 bn SEK
EU20 bn
WHAT DO YOU WANT TO PAY?
High speed trainTRACK FEE = 10 SEK/mileOPERATION = 2,5 SEK/mileProfit = 2,5 SEK/mileTOTALT = 15 SEK/mileENVIRON. = 0,5 SEK/mile
CR-TRAINTRACK FEE = 5 SEK/mileOPERATION = 3,5 SEK/mileProfit = 3,5 SEK/mileTOTALT = 12 SEL/mileENVIRON. = 1,0 SEK/mile
CARROAD FEE = 0 SEK/mileGASOLINE = 8 SEK/mileOPERATION = 30 SEK/mileTOTALT = 38 SEK/mileENVIRON. = 28 SEK/mile
AIRAIR FEE = 4,00 SEK/mileOPERATION = 12,50 SEK/mileProfit = 0,25 SEK/mileTOTALT = 16,75 SEK/mileENVIRON. = 20,00 SEK/mile
TRANSPORT TOTAL COST SEK/mile
CAR 66,00
AIR 36,75
HIGH SPEED RAIL 15,50
CR - RAIL 13,00
APPROXIMATELY TOTAL COST
1 mile = 10 km
DECISION
- It is free of charge to say YES to high speed rail - You will give public fast transport- You act in a environmental issue- You save money to public and give them wellfare
- Stand-by cost is 7,4 million/day to say NO for high speed rail - You prevent public to cheap and fast transports- You enjoy environmental degradation- You prevent public to save money and be hapier