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Why Enterprise AR Should Care About Consumer IT Martin Reynolds, GTM Gartner Consumer Research

We are entering a new era of personal computing. The cloud will replace the PC as the location where users keep their personal content, access their services, and personal preferences and

center their digital lives. It will be the glue that connects the web of connected devices they choose to use during the different

aspects of their daily life.

Technology providers and IT organizations must align to this new reality of consumerization.

Our Consumer Research Team

• 40 analysts around the globe • Covers devices, services and consumer dynamics • Works across Gartner teams • Resegmenting forecasts to common definitions • Using economic and behavioral models • Integrating social content through the research

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How Our Consumer Research Can Help AR to Help the Business Grow

• Strategy • Product development • Marketing • Market & Competitive Intelligence Key Insights for Enterprise-only Providers: - All applications must face consumers - All tools must be “sticky” - Security must be positive, not negative - Behavior and needs, not features and speeds

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Consumer Dynamics

Market Segments and Buyer Behavior

Mobile Services35%

Fixed Services19%

Video Services8%

Devices28%

Content10%

$200 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 9%

$600 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 6%

$100 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 8%

$700 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 5%

$400 BillionCAGR 2010-2015 = 1%

Consumer Infotainment Spending Will Grow Past $2.2 Trillion in 2014

Megatrends • A boost will come from

mobile subscribers in emerging markets.

• Broadband will be available everywhere.

• Mobile Internet will hit the mainstream.

• Social apps will upend behavior and brands.

By 2015, consumers will spend $2.8 trillion annually on digital information, and entertainment products and services

Forces

Total Services 62%

$1.2 Trillion CAGR 2010-2015 = 4%

Use Attitudinal Profiles to Target Buyers

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18%

18%

9%13%

8%

7%

10%8%

9%

0%

20%

40%

60%

2% 7% 12% 17% 22%

ComfortableConformists

BasicSurvivors

Aspirers

Traditionalists

WorkerBees

ProfessionalAchievers

Techno Stragglers

Young FunSeekers

Tech Savants

Adoption of New TechLate adopter Early adopter

Invo

lvem

ent Most Common

Targets in 2010

Involvement = Consumer perception of importance or personal relevance of a product based on intensity of stated need across 10 parameters Based on Gartner report: "Marketing Essentials: How to Segment the Consumer Market" (G00172815)

Bigger Opportunity in

2012

Changes

4,000 Survey Completes in 2011

Consumer Devices

Mobile Operating Systems, Tablets and Smartphones

A Different Way to Look at Relationships - Behavioral Segmentation for Devices

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There are 4 categories of devices that will compete for consumers’ budgets: Ultra Mobile Notebooks, Premium Comm Devices, Media Tablets and E-readers.

Media Tablets’ strengths

Portability, Multifunction, Personalization

Media Tablets’ weaknesses

Creation

0

1

2

3

4

5Connectivity

Portability

Creation

ConsumptionUsability

Personalised

Unifunction vsmultifunction

Notebook PC

Ultra Mobile Notebook

Premium Comm Devices

Media tablets

Which Mobile OS Technologies Will Dominate the Market?

Open OS Handset Sales by Platform

Mobile OS

Mobile Browser + HTML5

Platform substitutes (e.g., Air, Qt, Flash,

Silverlight, etc.)

Scriptable mapping tools

New platforms" (e.g., augmented reality tools)

Plan devices against platforms, apps and services.

Growth

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Percent

Symbian Android RIMApple iOS Microsoft LiMo FoundationBada WebOS MeeGoPalm OS Others

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

Connected E-Readers Total

Connected Game Handhelds Total

Connected Imaging Devices Total

Connected Personal Navigation Device Total

Connected Portable Media Players Total

Media Tablets Total

Sales to End Users (K)

Media Tablets Change Everything

Gartner’s insight into consumer behavior can help you succeed.

300 million

Growth Changes

What Technologies Will Disrupt the Devices Market?

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Technology Trigger

Peak of Inflated

Expectations Trough of

Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Productivity

time

expectations

Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2

years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10

years

obsolete before plateau

As of July 2010 Bio-Acoustic Sensing

Photonic Crystal Displays Electrofluidic and Electrowetting Display Technology

Quantum Dot Displays

Mobile Transphones

Quantum Tunneling Composite (QTC)

HD Voice Mobile High-Definition Link

Dual Noise Cancellation Ensemble Interactions

MEMS Displays Smartphone Hypervisors

MEMS Gyroscopes Mobile WLAN Access Points

Solar Power Mobile Devices Augmented Reality

High-Performance Multicore Application Processors

Voice to Text on Mobile Devices Pico Projectors

Magnetometer

Indoor Positioning

Phone Bar Code Reader Device-Embedded Biometric Authentication

Multitouch Mobile Browsers

GPS Haptics

Wireless Power Bluetooth 3.0

Near-Field Communication

Bluetooth 4.0 Gesture Recognition

Mobile Widgets 802.11n

AMOLED

802.11ac

Wi-Fi Remote Display

Volumetric and Holographic Displays

Head-Mounted Displays

Wireless Remote Display 60GHz and 5GHz

Software-Defined Radio

Mobile Devices Technology Hype Cycle

Changes

Consumer Services and Social Platforms

Wireless Transport, Social Platforms, Context-Aware Services and Apps

What's the Value of the Social Consumer?

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Reduced Cost of Operations

Increased customer service

Better and more efficient

support Happier

customers

Increased Revenues

Engaging enthusiasts

Reaching new consumers

Building Brands

Increase brand value

Increase value of goods and services sold

Social networking is critical to your business.

Context Is the "Killer App" for Mobility

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By 2015, context will be more influential to mobile consumer services and relationships than search engines are to the Web. Bottom line: Not offering context service may mean leaving one of the most effective ways of customer ownership to the competition.

Types of context services: • Location-based services — Vodafone Navigator, Foursquare • Presence — Twitter, Instagram, Google, AIM • Social networking — Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn • Mobile advertising — amAze, Mobile Posse, AdMob, iAds

Context = People + Place + Proximity + Activity

Changes

Mobile Ads Monetize Context and Social Networking: "Hyperlocal" Is the Key

Source: Mobile Advertising Forecast, March 2011

US$ Millions

Driving Factors Falling Into Place, Ready for Strong Growth

2010: 0.5% of total worldwide advertising budget 2015: >4% of budget

Grow

Consumer Applications and Services Hype Cycle

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Technology Trigger

Peak of

Inflated Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

Years to mainstream adoption: less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years

more than 10 years

obsolete

before plateau

As of July 2010

TV Widgets

Consumer Telepresence

Context-Enriched Services Ensemble Interactions

3D TV Services

Mobile Virtual Worlds HD Voice

Mobile Sports and Fitness

Mobile Coupons

Rich Communication Suite

Ultra-High-Speed Broadband Internet

Augmented Reality

Mobile Social Networks

Mobile Application Stores

Mobile Health Monitoring Mobile Money Transfer

Mobile VoIP

Mobile Advertising

NFC Payment

Mobile Instant Messaging

Mobile Ticketing

FMC: Consumer Applications

Online Video

Mobile Learning

Indoor Positioning

Mobile Banking Mobile Widgets

Mobile Search Network DVR

Mobile E-Mail Services

Mobile OTA Payment

Mobile TV Broadcasting

Location-Based Services

Full-Track Music Downloads

Personal Navigation Residential VoIP

Mobile TV Streaming Socialcasting

Internet TV

Voice-to-Text Conversion Services

Mobile Music Streaming

Bar Code Marketing

IPTV

Changes

Summary

• Cloud is personal • Gartner has a serious consumer research effort • Our new economic and behavioral approaches

create new ways to understand products and markets

• Every technology provider and IT department has to deal with yet more new cloud realities

• We can help strategic planners, product managers and marketers align with consumer forces

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