why e-learning has failed - and why it will succeed

Tony Bates Associates Ltd11

EDEN ConferenceEDEN ConferenceHelsinki 2005Helsinki 2005

Why e-learning has failed - Why e-learning has failed - and why it will succeedand why it will succeed

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© Tony Bates Associates Ltd© Tony Bates Associates Ltd22

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• • e-learning projects that crashed e-learning projects that crashed and burned: why did they fail?and burned: why did they fail?

• • slow adoption of e-learning in slow adoption of e-learning in distance educationdistance education

• • key problems with e-learningkey problems with e-learning• • cost-effectiveness of e-learningcost-effectiveness of e-learning• • need for strategic use and focus need for strategic use and focus • • why it will succeedwhy it will succeed


Crashed and burned Crashed and burned

Late 1990’s: e-learning frenzyLate 1990’s: e-learning frenzye-learning for profit; global marketse-learning for profit; global marketsMerrill Lynch: Moe and BlodgettMerrill Lynch: Moe and BlodgettCisco CEO: ‘e-learning next killer Cisco CEO: ‘e-learning next killer

application’application’


Crashed and burnedCrashed and burned

• • for-profit spin-off degree programs: for-profit spin-off degree programs: New York University Online, Temple, E-New York University Online, Temple, E-Cornell, Open University of United StatesCornell, Open University of United States

• • for-profit consortia: for-profit consortia: Cardean, Fathom, Cardean, Fathom, Global University Alliance, Universitas21Global University Alliance, Universitas21

•• UK e-universityUK e-university

US$20 million lost on average; $100 US$20 million lost on average; $100 million by UK e-Universitymillion by UK e-University


Why did they fail?Why did they fail?

ethical and credibility issuesethical and credibility issuese.g. Universitas 21 Globale.g. Universitas 21 Global• • degree transcripts have logos of all degree transcripts have logos of all

19 universities19 universities• • Thomson chooses authorsThomson chooses authors• • self-accreditation (U21 Pedagogica)self-accreditation (U21 Pedagogica)• • U21 Global degree not recognized U21 Global degree not recognized

by member institutionsby member institutions


Why did they fail?Why did they fail?

• • bad business plans: bad business plans: KPMG, KPMG, PriceWaterhousePriceWaterhouse

• • over-estimated market for non-creditover-estimated market for non-credit• • under-estimated costs: product not under-estimated costs: product not

process; mass production model; process; mass production model; learner support under-estimatedlearner support under-estimated

• • ignored expertise of ‘traditional’ DEignored expertise of ‘traditional’ DE• ‘• ‘quarantined’ tenured facultyquarantined’ tenured faculty


E-learning and distance education: E-learning and distance education: public sector (2003)public sector (2003)

Public sectorPublic sector

Print + broadcasting:Print + broadcasting: 5.0 million5.0 million

Fully online:Fully online: 0.6 million0.6 million

Total:Total: 5.6 million5.6 million

E-learners on campus:E-learners on campus: 3-4 million3-4 million

Private e-learners:Private e-learners: 3.4 million3.4 million

Private distancePrivate distance 4.0 million4.0 million


Slow public sector developmentSlow public sector development

10 years since first web-based courses 10 years since first web-based courses but:but:

• • 12 per cent of DE fully online; most 12 per cent of DE fully online; most ‘web-supplemented’‘web-supplemented’

• • only one public university fully online only one public university fully online • • UK Open University: 2003, 17 courses UK Open University: 2003, 17 courses

out of 500 fully onlineout of 500 fully online• • >70% of all fully online courses in >70% of all fully online courses in

private sectorprivate sector


Why so slow?Why so slow?

(in increasing order of importance)(in increasing order of importance)

1. Access1. Access2. Need to change pedagogy2. Need to change pedagogy3. Lack of specialists3. Lack of specialists4. Lower economies of scale4. Lower economies of scale5. Lack of business planning/CBA5. Lack of business planning/CBA6. Inventory6. Inventory7. Leadership + institutional inertia7. Leadership + institutional inertia


ConsequencesConsequences

• • some conventional universities have some conventional universities have moved fastermoved faster

•• e-learning seen as different from DE; e-learning seen as different from DE; DE a sub-set of e-learningDE a sub-set of e-learning

•• e-learning about competitiveness and e-learning about competitiveness and profit, not accessprofit, not access

•• govts. see DTUs as obsoletegovts. see DTUs as obsolete


Problems with e-learningProblems with e-learning

•• access IS still an issue in many access IS still an issue in many countries/for some target groups; countries/for some target groups;

• • economies of scale still importanteconomies of scale still important•• quality is an issue; can learn from DEquality is an issue; can learn from DE• • e-learning requires major structural e-learning requires major structural

changes in conventional universitieschanges in conventional universities•• DE students have special needs not well DE students have special needs not well

served by campus institutionsserved by campus institutions•• technology constantly changingtechnology constantly changing


Concerns about cost-effectivenessConcerns about cost-effectiveness(from Bates, 2005)(from Bates, 2005)

Cost per Cost per student student study study hourhour

No. of students per course per yearNo. of students per course per year

TVTV

RadioRadio

PrintPrintOnlineOnline

3030 125125 625625 12501250 30003000

$5$5

$10$10

$15$15

$20$20


TVTV

Costs of print vs onlineCosts of print vs online

3030 125125 625625 12501250 30003000

$2.0$2.0

$4.0$4.0

$6.0$6.0

$8.0$8.0

$10.0$10.0

OnlineOnline

OU printOU print

DM printDM print

No. of students per course per yearNo. of students per course per year

Cost per Cost per student student study study hourhour

For 3,000For 3,000Online: $2.18Online: $2.18DM print: $1.37DM print: $1.37OU print: $0.65OU print: $0.65Difference over Difference over 5 years:5 years:$750,000$750,000


Economics of technology-based teachingEconomics of technology-based teaching

No. of students per course (over 5 years)No. of students per course (over 5 years)

Cost Cost per per

studentstudent

PrintPrint

Face-to-faceFace-to-face

Fully Fully onlineonline

2020 100100 200200 20002000

Web supplementedWeb supplemented

Instructor/student: 1:30Instructor/student: 1:30

Mixed modeMixed mode


Why e-learning will succeed:Why e-learning will succeed:it can meet the needs of a knowledge-it can meet the needs of a knowledge-

based societybased societyKnowledge-based societyKnowledge-based society: work and : work and

life dependent on information and life dependent on information and knowledge, knowledge, e.g. financial services, e.g. financial services, computing, entertainment, health, education computing, entertainment, health, education

• • industries dependent on finding, industries dependent on finding, analyzing, applying informationanalyzing, applying information

• • knowledge-base constantly changing knowledge-base constantly changing • • workers need to be lifelong learnersworkers need to be lifelong learners


Advantages of e-learningAdvantages of e-learning

• • new teaching methodsnew teaching methods: from : from information transmission to information transmission to knowledge construction knowledge construction Creative thinking, critical thinking, problem-Creative thinking, critical thinking, problem-solving, collaborative learning, information solving, collaborative learning, information managementmanagement

• • resulting in learning how to learn resulting in learning how to learn (after university)(after university)

• • but not always used this waybut not always used this way


Selective use of e-learningSelective use of e-learning

Two key parameters:Two key parameters:Learners:Learners:

novice vs experiencednovice vs experienced

dependent vs independentdependent vs independentfull-time vs part-timefull-time vs part-time

motivationmotivation Skills/competencies:Skills/competencies:

psycho-motor vs cognitivepsycho-motor vs cognitive

what else?what else? we don’t know we don’t know


Importance of distance education and Importance of distance education and e-learning for lifelong learnerse-learning for lifelong learners

• • lifelong learners need delivery to lifelong learners need delivery to work or homework or home

• • Internet provides access to new Internet provides access to new knowledge and researchknowledge and research

• • already have ‘hands-on’ skills from already have ‘hands-on’ skills from campus experiencecampus experience

• • community of practice: lifelong community of practice: lifelong learners have specialist knowledgelearners have specialist knowledge


Lifelong learners have different needsLifelong learners have different needs

• • delivery to work or homedelivery to work or home

• • just-in-timejust-in-time

• • small ‘chunks’ but leading to small ‘chunks’ but leading to credentials (degrees/diplomas)credentials (degrees/diplomas)

• • latest knowledge but adapted to the latest knowledge but adapted to the learner’s contextlearner’s context

• • sharing/testing knowledge with peerssharing/testing knowledge with peers


why conventional universities need to why conventional universities need to pay attention to lifelong learningpay attention to lifelong learning

• • universities overwhelmed by high universities overwhelmed by high school entrants; don’t want more school entrants; don’t want more studentsstudents

• • new funding model needed for new funding model needed for lifelong learners: lifelong learners: Self-financed Self-financed programs hiring new research professorsprograms hiring new research professors

• • lifelong learners previously lifelong learners previously subsidized, earning good money, subsidized, earning good money, able and willing to pay full costable and willing to pay full cost


e-Learning can be profitablee-Learning can be profitable

Profit in niche marketsProfit in niche markets, e.g., e.g.University of Phoenix Online: University of Phoenix Online: 26,000 26,000

students, vocationalstudents, vocational

corporate e-learning: corporate e-learning: e.g.e.g. SkillSoft: $250 million SkillSoft: $250 million per annumper annum

MBAs (Queens, Athabasca)MBAs (Queens, Athabasca)UBC Master in Educational TechnologyUBC Master in Educational TechnologyUOC Master in e-LearningUOC Master in e-Learningbut who pays for under-educated?but who pays for under-educated?


ConclusionsConclusions

• • e-learning must be used strategicallye-learning must be used strategically• • lifelong learners major new market lifelong learners major new market

essential for economic developmentessential for economic development• • major changes needed in both major changes needed in both

conventional and distance conventional and distance institutionsinstitutions

• • but e-learning will succeed because it but e-learning will succeed because it develops skills needed in knowledge-develops skills needed in knowledge-based societiesbased societies


ReferencesReferences

Bates, A. 2005 Bates, A. 2005 Technology, e-Technology, e-learning and distance education learning and distance education London: RoutledgeLondon: Routledge

Peters, O. 2003 Peters, O. 2003 Distance Education in Distance Education in TransitionTransition Oldenburg: Univ. of Oldenburg: Univ. of OldenburgOldenburg

Bates, A. and Poole, G. 2003 Bates, A. and Poole, G. 2003 Effective Effective Teaching with Technology in Higher Teaching with Technology in Higher Education Education San Francisco: Jossey-BassSan Francisco: Jossey-Bass


What is e-learning?What is e-learning?

face-to-face-to-faceface

no e-learningno e-learning fully e-learningfully e-learning

class-class-room room aidsaids

mixed mixed mode mode

(less face-to-(less face-to-face + e-face + e-learning)learning)

dis-dis-tance tance edu-edu-

cationcation

distributed distributed learninglearning

blended blended learninglearning

lap-lap-top top pro-pro-

gramsgrams


Choosing technology: ACTIONS modelChoosing technology: ACTIONS model

AA ccess ccessCC ost ostTT eaching requirements eaching requirementsII nteraction nteractionOO rganization rganizationNN ovelty oveltyS S peedpeed


Changing technologiesChanging technologies

1. re-usable content (learning objects) 1. re-usable content (learning objects) 2. social software (wikis, blogs)2. social software (wikis, blogs)3. e-portfolios3. e-portfolios4. synchronous: web conferencing4. synchronous: web conferencing5. student tools to create/manage own 5. student tools to create/manage own

web workweb workdifficult to build stable, quality difficult to build stable, quality

controlled, ‘managed’ systems controlled, ‘managed’ systems


Advantages of e-learningAdvantages of e-learning

• • direct interaction between teacher direct interaction between teacher and learnerand learner

• • faster feedbackfaster feedback• • skills/competencies needed in a skills/competencies needed in a

knowledge-based society:knowledge-based society: information management; knowledge information management; knowledge construction; independent learningconstruction; independent learning

• • economies of scopeeconomies of scope

why e-learning has failed - and why it will succeed

Education

learning elearning

elearning frenzy elearning

elearning access

faster elearning

learning need

private elearners

advantages of e

overview elearning projects