who will feed china in the 21 st century? emiko fukase & will martin, world bank, 23 november...
TRANSCRIPT
Who Will Feed China in the 21st Century?
Emiko Fukase & Will Martin,
World Bank, 23 November 2013
Issues
• China’s food demand will rise substantially– Changes in diets towards animal products
• What will happen to production?
• Implications for trade & self-sufficiency
Demand
Econometric Approach
• Based on the experience of 155 countries
• Calculate the cereal equivalents required to produce diets as incomes grow
• Estimate the relationship between real income & consumption of cereal equivalents
Cereal equivalents
Products Coefficients
Bovine Meat 19.8
Pork 8.5
Poultry 4.7
Fish, Seafood 3.3
Eggs 3.8
Milk 1.2
Estimated demand
China
Thailand
Hungary
Indonesia
Mexico
US
Germany
Japan
Philippines
United Kingdom
Australia
Korea
Italy
India
Brazil
Malaysia
Spain
0.5
11.5
22.5
(ton
ne
s/cap
ita/y
ear)
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000GDP per capita, PPP (constant 2005 int. $)
CE Consumption.5
11.5
2(t
onn
es/c
ap
ita/y
ear)
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000Real GDP(PPP) per capita in 2005 int. $ 1980-2009
China CE Consumption Fi tted CE Consumption
grows much faster than food calories
0.5
11
.52
(to
nn
es/c
apita/y
ea
r)
050
00
10
00
015
00
0(k
cal/c
apita
/day)
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000Real GDP(PPP) per capita in 2005 int. $ 1980-2009
China Calorie Consumption Fi tted Calorie Consumption
China CE Consumption Fi tted CE Consumption
Production
Production
z = B0 + B1 XB2
H B3
– where z is CE production per capita, X is PPP GDP per capita, H is ha of arable land per capita
Rationale• Agricultural output higher in countries with
greater land per person• Productivity growth drives GDP growth
– And agricultural growth
Agric CEs vs income
Thailand
Hungary
Indonesia Mexico
US
Germany
JapanPhilippines
United Kingdom
Australia
Korea
Italy
India
China
Brazil
Malaysia
Spain
01
23
4(t
on
ne
s/cap
ita/y
ear)
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000GDP per capita, PPP 2005 int. $
China Consumption China Production
Production adjusted at China Land Level Fitted CE Consumption
Production (China: land=.21 ha)
Arable land per capita
Japan Korea India China World Brazil USA0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
China– net import phase.5
11.5
2(t
on
ne
s/cap
ita/y
ear)
0 10000 20000 30000GDP per capita, PPP 2005 int. $
China consumption1980-2009
China production 1980-2009
Shi fted production l ine Shifted consummption line
Consumption Line Production line
Some Policy implications
Most imports animal feed
• Direct per capita consumption of grains is falling especially amongst rural consumers– Protection of staples would hurt the poor– Also create inefficiencies in agriculture that increase
import demand for animal feeds• Protection of animal feeds would slow
development of modern livestock sectors– May create a need for imports of staple foods
• or for imports of meat
Decline in rural grain cons, kg/capita
0
50
100
150
200
250
300Grains Vegetables
Protein Foods** Cooking Oil
Dairy Products
Raising farm incomes
• Critical problem given rural-urban income gap• Higher prices have only a temporary impact
– And hurt many poor consumers• A dynamic problem requiring:
– increasing productivity, – reduced barriers to outmigration, – Improvements in rural infrastructure– farm mechanization & consolidation
• A huge agenda
Conclusions
• Demand for food to grow rapidly – Calorie consumption to grow only slightly– Rapid rise in consumption of livestock products
• Which require more cereal– due to feed conversion
• China’s land endowment well below world average– but far above Japan/Korea– Production growth to catch up as demand slows– Appears that China will (mostly) feed China
• Farmer incomes increased sustainably by mechanization, raising productivity & farm size