who pollutes and guzzles more from urban...
TRANSCRIPT
1
Anumita Roychowdhury
Gaurav Dubey
Centre for Science and Environment
Kolkata, August 24, 2018
Who pollutes and guzzles more
from urban commute?
The convergence:
Climate Change, Clean Air and Urban Agenda
Public health challenge
More than 18 million healthy life years
lost due to air pollution.
Exposure to toxic emissions from
vehicles a serious public health concern
Kolkata taxi driver
Increase in AM number
Delhi: 14 year old child
AM number
Climate change is for real….
5
Toxic AirMore cities in grip of critical level of PM10
Source: Centre for Science and Environment of CPCB air quality data submitted to Rajya Sabha for 44 cities
6
Mixed and worrying trends
across cities
PM10 concentration in six mega cities—
way above the standardPM10 concentration in metropolitan cities
*Data available since 2011
Source: Computed by CSE from CPCB air quality data submitted to Rajya Sabha for 44 cities and CPCB the ENVIS centre
7
Mixed and worrying trends
across cities
NO2 concentration in six mega cities NO2 concentration in six metropolitan cities
Source: Computed by CSE from CPCB air quality data submitted to Rajya Sabha for 44 cities and CPCB the ENVIS centre
8
Energy Insecurity
Over 40% of oil and oil products in India go into
running of vehicles
Source: India Energy Outlook - World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015.pdf
Trends in primary oil consumption in India—present (2000–13) and
projected (2013–40)
9
Growth Rate in Energy Consumption in
different sectors (CAGR 2000–13)
Source: India Energy Outlook - World Energy Outlook Special Report, 2015
https://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015.pdf
Till 2040, the transport sector in India will continue to record the highest growth
rate in energy consumption—as much as 7 per cent—followed by industry at 6.4
per cent and the building sector at 2.4 per cent
10
Energy use by different transportation
modes (2013 and 2040)
Source: http://www.iea.org/publications/freepublications/publication/IndiaEnergyEfficiencyOutlook_20161215_Final.pdf
Personal vehicles and heavy duty trucks drive the consumption
• 2013: light-duty vehicles used up 13% of overall energy consumption by the
transport sector;
• 2040: This share to increase to 27%
• Share of heavy-duty trucks to increase from 23% in 2013 to 34%
Vehicles threaten energy security
Source: SIM Air
Total vehicular CO2 emissions by categories in Kolkata
Kolkata:
-- Cars and two wheelers together use up about 40% of total
transport energy consumption.
-- Transport oil consumption will triple by 2030 with largest increase
expected from four wheelers.
12
Trends in total vehicle registrations
in India (1951–2015)
Total vehicle registrations—the number has increased 700 times
Source: Road Transport Yearbook, MoRTH, 2016
All cities are sprawling
today…………
Cities have grown about twice as fast in area as they grew in
population, -- declining average city population densities and
increasing sprawl.
Faster population growth on the peripheries of major cities.
For the 12 largest Indian cities, satellite imagery shows that:
--- Proportion of built-up area outside a city’s official
boundaries exceeds that within its boundaries
--- Also exceeds the proportion of population, -- low density
sprawl.
(World Bank 2015)
What have we tried to do?
Assess toxic and warming emissions and
energy guzzling only from urban commute in
cities…. From the way we travel in our
cities……….
15
Who pollutes and guzzles more
from urban commute?
Cities under scanner
Megacities-- Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Bengaluru
Hyderabad
Metropolitan cities: -Ahmedabad, Pune, Jaipur, Lucknow,
Kochi,Bhopal,Vijaywada Chandigarh
How are cities coping to reduce emissions and energy use
from urban commute?
• Particulate matter
• Nitrogen oxides
• Heat-trapping carbon dioxide
• Energy consumption
16
Parameters that require policy focus
• Population – Planning for number of people
• Per person trip generation and volume of daily travel trips
• Average trip length by modes of transport
• Share of different modes in all motorised trips
• Average distances that modes cover and total kilometers
they travel
• Level of vehicle technology and fuel quality
Challenges of such assessment
• Lack of official data base
• Mobility plans, Census of 2011, project reports, research
studies
• Better data may modify ranking but the overall message
from ranking will not change
What parameters influence energy use
and emissions from urban commute?
17
What is this ranking?
Cities have been ranked based on two approaches:
i) Ranking based on overall aggregated emissions and
energy use from urban commute: Based on combined
score for all parameters – establishes the overall position
of all cities
ii) Ranking based on per trip emissions in cities: A
smaller city may have lower overall pollution but may have
high emissions per trip due to a polluting mode. Emission
is influenced by the mode of travel for a trip we make and
the level of its technology and fuel quality. This is a better
indicator to plan remedial measure
• Where are our cities in this race?
18
Comprehensive Ranking of the Cities
(All Modes)
Source: CSE analysis
Based on overall emissions and energy
consumption
Based on per travel trip emissions and
energy consumption
19
Mega Cities Ranking
Based on overall emissions and
energy consumption
Based on per travel trip emissions and
energy consumption
20
Mega Cities Ranking
Kolkata wins among mega cities
Based on overall emissions and
energy consumption
Based on per travel trip emissions and
energy consumption
The rider ……………
From a public policy stand-point, it is important to
recognize that the difference between cities in terms
of emissions of toxic and warming gases and
transport energy use, is not a matter of chance.
It is a matter of choice—a result of conscious
decision-making and prioritization related to
sustainable modes, compact urban form and road
design, and transportation planning, that influence
commuting choices of the masses.
22
Population and population densities
(2017) of the selected 14 cities
Source: UN Population Projections, 2017
Population, 2017 Population density, 2017
23
More people in city, higher trip
generation
(Per capita travel trip rate) 2017
Note: *For Hyderabad, the trip rate is for Greater Hyderabad Municipal Corporation area which was
constituted in 2007 and thus exhibits a non-uniform level of urban development within its boundary,
possibly leading to a rather lower trip rate.
Source: Base figures from multiple transport studies; projections using factors given in “Review of Urban Transport” prepared by CSTEP and IUT
• Population size, gender
and work profile
influence trip generation
and travel demand
• Megacities with very
high population are at
the top
• Mumbai in the lead,
followed by Chennai,
Kolkata and Delhi.
• Bhopal, Pune,
Vijayawada, Lucknow,
Kochi and Jaipur are
placed in that order.
24
What is the average trip length of
cars, two-wheelers and taxis/ autos
in cities
Source: Base figures from multiple transport studies; projections using factors given in “Review of Urban Transport” prepared
by CSTEP and IUT
• Mumbai, Chennai, Delhi
Hyderabad: -- high
average trip length.
• Metropolitan cities of
Kochi and Vijayawada:
on the higher side (e.g.
twin cities of Kochi–
Ernakulam)
• Kolkata, - a megacity,
but with smallest
average trip length
among 14 cities.
25
Share of different modes of transport in
motorized trips
Source: Base figures from multiple transport studies
• Mega cities: Public transport
share higher; has the highest
personal vehicle dependence for
work trips-- Hyderabad,
Bengaluru, Chennai and Delhi,
with Mumbai and Kolkata bucking
the trend.
• Metropolitan cities: Share of
personal vehicle usage high --
Close to 80 per cent in
Chandigarh; Lucknow,
Ahmedabad and Jaipur at 70, 65
and 60 per cent respectively.•
• Two-wheeler usage very high
26
Share of private and public transport in
motorized trips
Source: Base figures from multiple transport studies; projections using factors given in “Review of Urban Transport” prepared
by CSTEP and IUT
• Mumbai and Kolkata: Highest
share of public transport trips
followed by Delhi and Chennai.
• Bengaluru at lower level
• Metropolitan cities: High share
of personal vehicle trips
27
Average distance travelled by different
modes of transport
Source: CSE analysis
• Two-wheelers travel the
maximum, -- in Delhi, Chennai,
Hyderabad and Bengaluru.
• Kolkata and Mumbai, -- lowest
share of personal vehicle trips in
terms of total kilometres travelled.
• Metropolitan cities -- personal
vehicles dominate
Personal vehicles dominate the daily
distance travelled in all the cities.
28
Levels Of Motorization in
Different Cities
Source: MoRTH statistics
Trend in total registered vehicles and average annual growth rate in the 14
cities (2006–16)
• Mega cities have very high vehicle stock
• Metropolitan cities with smaller base have recorded very high growth rate
29
Total particulate emission load from urban
commuting in the 14 cities (kg per day)
Source: CSE analysis
Particulate load from urban commuting in Bhopal is 11 times lower than Delhi.
30
Particulate emission load per trip from
private and public modes of transport (in g per year)
Source: CSE analysis
31
Total NO2 emission load from urban
commuting in the 14 cities (kg per day)
Source: CSE analysis
• jhgjhjhjhg
32
Nitrogen oxide emission load per trip from
private and public modes of transport (in g per year)
Source: CSE analysis
33
Heat Trapping Gases increase
Climate Risk in Cities
CO2 emission load from urban commuting in the 14 cities (in tonnes per day)
Source: CSE analysis
• hjjhgjgjhg
34
Heat Trapping Gases increase Climate
Risk in Cities
Source: CSE analysis
CO2 emission load from different modes
of transport (in tonnes per day)
Per trip CO2 emission load in cities
(kg)
35
Energy consumption for urban
commuting in the 14 cities (in MJoules per day)
Source: CSE analysis
36
Maximum Energy guzzler-- Cars
and two-wheelers
Source: CSE analysis
Mode-wise distribution of energy
consumption
(in MJoules per day)
Per trip energy consumption in cities
(in MJoules per year)
Lessons from cities………….
38
Bhopal ranks best among all
Advantage of early action
Advantage
-- Lower population
-- Personal transport usage is higher, but average trip length of
different modes is second lowest; average distance travelled by
different modes also lowest
-- Vehicle numbers among lowest. Less vehicle miles travelled
-- Lowest particulate, nitrogen oxide load and CO2 load
-- Early action to build bus and bicycle programme with
enhanced bus fleet, bus rapid transit system and public bike
sharing schemes. Modal share of public transport -- 23%
-- Transit-oriented development policy has progressed here.
39
Kolkata wins among mega cities
-- Sixth among all 14; -- Wins among six mega cities
-- Third highest volume of trips due to large population,
-- Lowest average trip length for all different modes
-- Average distance travelled by different modes lowest among all mega cities.
-- Lowest vehicle stock; second highest share of public transport.
-- Early investment in diverse and connected public transport and physical restraints
-- Public transport culture, compact city design, high street density, short travel distances
restricted availability of land for roads and parking -- good practices.
-- Most diverse public transport systems buses (now upgrading to electric buses),
metro, trams, suburban rail, para-transit and waterways. -- Public transport and IPT trips
88 per cent.
-- Proves - only high population, high travel volume and economic growth need
not necessarily lead to higher automobile dependency.
40
Mumbai stays ahead with public
transport spine
-- Ranks 10th
-- Ahead of all mega cities except Kolkata.
-- Highest volume of trip generation.
-- Average trip length of all modes second highest.
-- Average distances of different modes are comparatively smaller than six other cities. -
--- Vehicle stock higher than Kolkata; but much lower than other mega cities.
-- Winning streak -- public transport spine –suburban rail system. Public transport and
para transit -- 89 per cent of all motorized trips.
-- Highest trip length for personal vehicles ; Yet overall guzzling and emissions
are lower
-- Despite having highest trip generation and volume of travel Mumbai could
reduce impacts by adopting public transport strategy.
-- Even with highest per capita GDP among the six megacities and highest volume
of trip generation use of personal modes is lowest in Mumbai.
41
Delhi’s dilemma
Ahead and yet a loser
The paradox of Delhi
-- Total volume of trip generation is lower than Kolkata, Mumbai, Chennai, and
Bengaluru.
-- Average trip length for different modes is lower than Chennai, Mumbai, Bengaluru,
Vijayawada, Kochi, and Hyderabad.
--Delhi’s public transport share is the third best among all cities. Delhi is 7th in per-
trip pollution generation.
-- Despite these relatively better overall positions why is Delhi at the bottom rank?
Reason
-- Higher population than other megacities. Highest vehicle stock
-- Volume of trips, even with lower trip rate, are very high
-- Per day around 20-30 million more trips are generated than Kolkata, Chennai,
Hyderabad and Bangalore.
-- Total vehicle kilometres generated far exceeds that of any other megacity.
-- Eclipsed benefits of CNG, and better travel parameters than other cities
-- Requires much more ambitious and harsh measures to bend the curve
42
How does Delhi’s paradox look like?
Based on overall total emission load and energy use from urban commuting
Total PM emissions: • Delhi emits 5 times more than Kolkata, 3 times more than
Mumbai,13 times more than Bhopal, 9 times more than Chandigarh & 8 times more than
Vijayawada
Total CO2 emissions: • Delhi emits 4 times higher than Kolkata, 2.3 times higher than
Mumbai, 1.7 times higher than Hyderabad; 26 times more than Bhopal, 15 times more
than Vijayawada and 11 times more than Chandigarh
Total energy consumption: • Delhi consumes 5 times more energy than Kolkata, 2.4
times more than Mumbai, and 2 times more than both Hyderabad and Bengaluru; 28.4
times more than Bhopal, and 15 and 13 times more than Vijayawada and Chandigarh
respectively
BUT……….Delhi fares relatively better on per-trip emissions
Based on per trip emissions: Hyderabad & Kochi emit 3 times more PM than Delhi;
Chandigarh & Hyderabad emit about two times higher CO2 than Delhi & twice more
energy
Delhi’s comparatively higher public transport modal share, effect of CNG
programme, in-use emissions management shows up in per trip emissions
43
Mega cities. Mega problems
Chennai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad – weighted down
by growh and automobility
-- Chennai and Bengaluru with large population have high trip generation and volume of
travel.
-- Average trip length for different modes especially cars among the highest ;
particularly in Chennai
--- Share of public transport ridership is lower than Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi.
-- Average distances or total vehicle miles traveled by different modes are among the
highest.
-- Signs of urban sprawl - increasing distances and dependence on personal vehicles
-- Even with lesser number of vehicles than Delhi, recorded highest annual
average growth rate for vehicles among all mega cities.
-- Comparatively lower population than Delhi leading to overall lower number of trips and
lesser kilometres travelled by vehicles.
--- Higher trip rate, trip length, low modal share of public transport have increased
emissions per trip, -- worse than Delhi.
-- Hyderabad - average distance travelled by cars and two wheelers is among the
highest. Its public transport ridership is lowest among all mega cities.
44
Cities at cross roads
Cities at crossroads can turn for the better or for worse:
Ahmedabad, Lucknow, Vijayawada, Pune and Jaipur at an
inflection point
Their per-trip emissions are in the middle of the spectrum
Action has started – Bus fleet renewal, BRT, street design
etc. but not enough
Depending on what direction their mobility policies go, their
pollution levels may increase or decrease accordingly.
They need to take corrective measures now and avoid the
fate of the megacities.
45
Challenge is big. Action needs
to be bigger
Mounting evidences of massive slide in public transport ridership in cities.
Delhi bus services: Share of public transport reduced from 64% in 2001 to 54% in 2010.
Since 2013, DTC bus ridership is declining at an average rate of 8.88 per cent per annum.
Overall, dropped by as much as 34%.
Bangalore Metropolitan Transport Corporation (BMTC): Since 2009, the ridership
increased by 9%. But now huge accumulated losses. Withdrawing buses from low-revenue-
generating routes – creating service deficit. Have cut down full-day bus operations on 2,253
routes.
Brihanmumbai Electric Supply and Transport (BEST): Daily ridership of BEST buses gone
down to its lowest ever: -- a sharp fall of 40% in the past seven years.
Ahmedabad: BRT services – expanded network from 35-km corridor 125km but passenger
traffic has not seen an upswing. - BRT passenger traffic stagnant
Vijaywada: Made an early transition to BRT at the early stages. But it has stopped operating
the system
No strategy to make public transport work in cities – poor last mile connectivity
for public transport, cheap or free parking, subsidised road taxes for cars, lack of
integration, lack of operational reforms are big barriers
Message from Kolkata: Build
compact and integrate with
transit, walkability.....
Kolkata: Integrated modes
Most diverse public transit modes
Kolkata sprawling …..
Urban Sprawl (sq. km.) in the last 100 years
-- Development towards East and West more sprawled
-- Expansion towards south of the city is more dense and
compact like the city core.
Kolkata 1990 Kolkata 2014
Rajarhat: Gated-community and inaccessible
design. Wrong urban principle. Urban design
make people captive users of car.
Rajarhat
Salt Lake
UTTIPECStreet Network
Source: UTTIPEC
Is this paradigm sustainable?
Super blocks, opaque boundary walls, no street activity,
limited access....
Source: CSE
Car centric design
Source: CSE
Poor walking access Footpaths for beautification
No mid block crossings for pedestrians – Advantage to vehicles
54
The TOD Building typology
- in Kolkata:
-- Roof of retail used as
public space for residents.
-- Zero Setbacks.
-- Mixed Use (Commercial/
Civic/ Residential within
same block)
-- Privacy of residents
ensured.
-- Retail facing the street
with homes overlooking,
keeps pedestrians
(women) safe
Good practice in Kolkata:
Mixed use development
55
Good practice in Kolkata:
Mixed use development
Delhi setting norms for high density requirements
Delhi framing Transit Oriented Development Policy
(DDA/UTTIPEC)
Density minimums as per the table below:
-- Mixed land-use norms: At least 30% residential and 20% Commercial &
Institutional use of FAR is mandatory within the Influence Zone
Barcelona has density ranging between 200 dwellings per hactareto 500 dwellings per hectare. Highly accessible streets
Barcelona: High Density doesn't mean only high rise
BarcelonaSource: Mid-rise, high density. Until what extent
does density matter? - Prof. Joaquim Sabaté
Kolkata have natural pedestrian precincts, by virtue
of the sheer volume of pedestrians. This can be
further built on to make pedestrian zones.
New look of footpath in Kolkata: A
step forward
Where do you feel more safe to walk?
Why building setbacks and boundary walls?
Source: CSE
61
Accelerate action on vehicle technology and fuels
to reduce on-road emissions and energy guzzling
Action in Kolkata
--Phased out of old and polluting vehicles in 2009 with immediate impact
on air quality
--- Introduced Bharat Stage-IV norms for vehicles with 50 ppm sulphur
fuels in 2010. BS VI norms to be implemented in 2020.
-- Introduction of LPG-driven three wheelers. Two-stroke auto-rickshaws
banned
-- Upgrading PUC emission testing centers. Need further action for
compliance and quality control
-- Introduced remote sensing monitoring – can be scaled up. Integrate
OBD testing
-- Implementing electric bus programme. Electric mobility is a way forward
-- Need next level of upscaling to control real world emissions
-- If combined with mobility strategy Kolkata can stay ahead of all
62
Step forward
Set time-bound targets for improving modal share of public transport, walking and
cycling
Integrate urban planning with transportation planning and adopt transit oriented
planning to reduce distances and motorized trip generation and improve access
to sustainable modes
Promote compact urban form – small block sizes, density norms, mixed land use,
mixed income neighbourhood, dense and permeable streets with active edges, etc
Need restraint measures for personal vehicle usage through parking policy, low
emissions zones approach, tax measures and congestion pricing approaches.
Integrate urban mobility strategies with clean and fuel efficient vehicles, zero
emissions technologies and clean fuels.
Need strong in-use emissions management and real world emissions control
Link funding strategies with reforms in public transport sector
Apply sustainability indicators for evaluating progress of programmes to ensure
lowering of emissions and carbon and inducing modal shift towards sustainable
modes.
63
Understand this problem Modernise this paradigm
64Thank You