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Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort? 1 Itamar Drechsler , Thomas Drechsel , David Marques-Ibanez and Philipp Schnabl ? NYU Stern and NBER ECB ? NYU Stern, CEPR, and NBER November 2012 1 The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of the European Central Bank or the Eurosystem.

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Page 1: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1

Itamar Drechsler�, Thomas Drechsel†, David Marques-Ibanez† and

Philipp Schnabl?

�NYU Stern and NBER †ECB ?NYU Stern, CEPR, and NBER

November 2012

1The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the position of theEuropean Central Bank or the Eurosystem.

Page 2: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Introduction

Lender of Last Resort (LOLR)

Theory of the LOLR (Bagehot, 1873)

Financial crises are characterized by lack of funding for banks

Lack of funding is due to market failure (information asymmetry, bank runs)

Inherently ‘good’ banks cannot finance assets and need to sell them at fire salediscounts. This depletes bank capital and leads to a credit crunch

LOLR should prevents a credit crunch by lending to illiquid (but solvent) banks,which produces large welfare gains

LOLR plays important role in economic policy

Central banks were set up to act as LOLR (e.g., Federal Reserve)

Large LOLR interventions during recent financial crisis

European Central Bank’s (ECB) main policy for addressing the financial crisis

ECB currently has e1 trillion in loans outstanding

Page 3: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Introduction

This paper

1 Why do banks take up LOLR funding from the ECB during the financial crisis?

– Is borrowing driven by the need to avoid fire-sales as Bagehot had hoped?

– Or do other motivations explain bank borrowing?

Page 4: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Introduction

Literature

Theory

– Thornton (1802), Bagehot (1873), Diamond and Dybvig (1983), Goodhart (1987),Goodfriend and King (1988), Goodhart (1995), Freixas, Giannini, Hoggarth, andRochet (1999), Repullo (2000), Rochet and Vives (2004), Diamond and Rajan(2005), Freixas and Rochet (2008), Tucker (2009), Stein (2012)

Empirics

– Miron (1986), Bordo (1990)

Contribution

– First paper using LOLR micro-data to analyze motivation for banks’ borrowing

– Important because welfare implications of LOLR intervention depend on banks’motivation

Page 5: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Introduction

Outline

1 Data and Institutional Background

2 LOLR Theories

3 Identification Strategy and Results

4 Aggregate Asset Reallocation

Page 6: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Introduction

Novel LOLR micro-data

ECB data (proprietary)

1 ECB lending for each bank and week from August 2007 to December 2011

2 Collateral pledged against borrowing (at ISIN-level)

Bank and securities data (public)

1 Securities characteristics (Bloomberg)

2 Bank characteristics (Bankscope, SNL Europe)

3 Euro bank stress test data

Sample represents the universe of European banks

Page 7: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

ECB is the LOLR in Europe

ECB provides loans via repos (i.e., loans against collateral)

– Accepts a wide range of collateral from many banks

– Each type of collateral has a haircut (just as in private repos)

– E.g., if haircut is 10%, then bank can borrow $45 against $50 market value bond

– do not depend on which bank is borrowing

– Note: These are full recourse loans

Since late 2008, ECB allows unlimited borrowing against eligible collateral

– Only constraint on bank borrowing is having collateral

For risky assets, ECB haircuts are less than in private markets (“haircut subsidy”)

– but the interest rate is higher than in private repo markets Interest Rates

– consistent with Bagehot’s advice to “lend freely at a penalty rate”

Page 8: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

Example: Greek Sovereign Bonds (Figure 1)

Figure plots CDS on Greek Government Debt

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August-07 August-08 August-09 August-10 August-11

Log(

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Lehman Bankrupcty

Main Exchange Stops Clearing Greek Bonds (market haircut of 100%)

Private repo markets stopped accepting Greek bonds as collateral in March 2010

Page 9: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

Example 1: Greek Sovereign Bonds (Figure 1)

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Lehman

Bankrupcty

Main Exchange Stops

Clearing Greek Bonds

(market haircut of 100%)

ECB continues lending against Greek collateral at less than 8% haircut

⇒ Provides large haircut subsidy on Greek bonds

Page 10: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

Example 1: Greek Sovereign Debt Migrates to ECB

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Main Exchange Stop Clearing Greek Bonds (market haircut of 100%)

In early 2008, most Greek sovereign debt used in private repo markets

By mid 2010, Greek sovereign debt migrates to ECB

Page 11: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

ECB Haircut Subsidies

Not only for Greek Debt but other risky collateral

haircut subsidies also on other risky collateral, e.g., mortgage-backed securities,covered bonds, etc.

Haircut subsidies are largest for the riskiest collateral

e.g., distressed-country sovereign bonds (Ireland, Italy, Portugal, Spain)

but not safe sovereign bonds (e.g., German bunds)

Total ECB subsidy received by a bank:

= Total Borrowing × Average Haircut subsidy

Are there differences in banks’ take-up of ECB subsidies?

⇒ Look at whether high-borrowing banks also use riskier collateral

Page 12: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

The Take-up of ECB Subsidies

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Co

llate

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LowBorrowing

Sort banks into quintiles by borrowing as of July 2010

Proxy for collateral risk by credit rating

Page 13: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

The Take-up of ECB Subsidies

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LowBorrowing

HighBorrowing

First Greek Bailout

Collateral risk of high-borrowing banks increases starting early 2010

⇒ There is a divergence in the take-up of ECB subsidies across banks!

Page 14: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

The Take-up of ECB Subsidies: Measure #2

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LowBorrowing

Sort banks into quintiles by borrowing as of July 2010

Proxy for collateral risk by share of distressed-country sovereign debt

Page 15: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Haircut Subsidies

The Take-up of ECB Subsidies: Measure #2

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First Greek Bailout

⇒ Divergence in take-up of ECB subsidies across banks starting early 2010!

Page 16: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Theories

Why do banks take up subsidies from the ECB?

1 Banking panics

2 Risk-shifting

3 Political Economy

Page 17: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Banking panics

– Banks cannot roll over short-term financing of assets because of a market failure(e.g., bank runs)

⇒ Need financing for their pre-existing holdings of risky assets, otherwise fire sale

– LOLR financing allows them to finance assets while they slowly de-lever, avoidingfire sales

⇒ Use LOLR funding to finance existing (not new) holdings of risky assets

– Some banks suffer more illiquidity than others (to explain cross-sectional pattern)

– Explains divergence if some banks suffered a series of worse financing shocksover time and in response pledged increasingly risky collateral

Page 18: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Risk-shifting

– Decline in bank asset values→ increased likelihood of default→ risk-shifting

Weakly-capitalized banks want to buy risky assets whose downside correlates with theirown default

– Haircut subsidies allows banks to risk-shift onto LOLR

Lending is under-collateralized → LOLR takes some loss if bank defaults

Attractive to weakly-capitalized banks

→ Haircut subsidy is bank-specific: bigger for weakly-capitalized banks

– Cost of taking subsidy: LOLR interest rate > private-market interest rate

⇒ Net benefit is positive for weakly-capitalized banks

They borrow from LOLR to buy risky assets, pledging them as collateral

– Explains divergence if weakly-capitalized banks used LOLR loans to purchaserisky assets by pledging them as collateral

Page 19: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Identification Strategy

1 Analyze if weakly-capitalized banks risk shift onto the LOLRDo they borrow more and pledge riskier collateral over time

2 Identification Problem: During a crisis banks’ financial strength is endogenous– Measures of bank’s strength during the crisis may reflect concerns about the likelihood

of runs

3 Solution: Use bank capital before the start of the crisis to proxy for banks’strength/risk-shifting incentives during the crisis

– Banks with less pre-crisis capital are more likely to have risk-shifting incentives duringthe crisis

– Proxy for pre-crisis capital using bank credit rating as of August 2007

4 Main concern: Pre-crisis bank capital may correlate in the cross-section withfuture bank runs (e.g., country of domicile)

Page 20: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Estimation

– Main OLS Regression:

yit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

– Outcome Variable yit :

1 Borrowing Indicator Variable

2 Log(Borrowing)

3 Average Collateral Rating (measure of collateral risk)

4 Distressed-country Sovereign Debt/Asseti,07 (second measure of collateral risk)

– BankRatingit is median credit rating as of August 2007– Assign numerical values (AAA=1, AA+=2, etc.)

– β > 0: Weaker banks take up ECB subsidies

– Postt is a vector of year-quarter indicator variables– look at cross-section evolution over time

Page 21: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Bank Credit Rating and Borrowing

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0.12First Greek Bailout

Lehman Bankruptcy

⇒ One-standard-deviation decrease in 2007 bank rating raises likelihood ofborrowing by 12 percentage points

Page 22: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Bank Credit Rating and Log(Borrowing)

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Lehman Bankruptcy

⇒ One-standard-deviation decrease in 2007 bank rating raises natural logarithm ofborrowing by 15%

Page 23: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Results: Bank Rating and Collateral Rating Over Time

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First Greek Bailout

⇒ One-standard-deviation worsening of bank rating 2007 reduces collateral rating by22% of a one-standard deviation

Page 24: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Results: Bank Rating and Periphery Sovereign Debt Over Time

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Lehman Bankruptcy

⇒ One-standard-deviation decrease in bank rating 2007 increases pledging ofdistressed-country sovereign debt by 25% of a one-standard deviation

Page 25: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Results: Summary [Table 2]

yit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

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Table 2: Bank Rating and LOLR Borrowing

This table examines the effect of bank ratings on ECB borrowing and collateral pledged with the ECB. The unit of observation is at the bank-

week level and the sample covers the period from August 2007 to December 2011. Bank Rating is a bank’s credit rating (AAA=1, AA+=2, AA=3,

etc.) as of August 2007. Borrowing Indicator is an indicator variable whether a bank borrows from the ECB. Log(Borrowing)it is the natural

logarithm of total borrowing plus one. Collateral Rating is the market value-weighted average credit rating of collateral. Distressed-Sovereign

Debtit/Assetsi,07 is total sovereign debt issued by distressed countries (Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal, and Spain) relative to bank assets as of

December 2007. Post-Lehman and Post-Greek Bailout are indicator variables for the periods from October 2008 to May 2010 and June 2010 to

December 2011, respectively. All columns include week and bank fixed effects. All regressions are clustered at the bank-level *** significant at

1% level, ** significant at 5% level, and * significant at 10%-level.

Borrowing

Indicatorit Log(Borrowing)it

Collateral

Ratingit

Distressed-

Sovereign

Debtit/Assetsi,07

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Bank Ratingi,07* Post-Greek Bailoutt 0.053*** 0.068*** 0.144*** 0.180***

(0.011) (0.017) (0.039) (0.063)

Bank Rating i,07* Post-Lehmant 0.011 0.023* 0.001 0.070

(0.011) (0.013) (0.023) (0.044)

Time Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Bank Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Banks 292 292 287 276

Observations 51,684 51,684 45,997 48,852

R2 0.476 0.789 0.672 0.645

Post − Lehmant = Oct 08-Jun 10; Post − GreekBailoutt = Jul 10-Dec 11

Standard errors clustered at bank level

– A bank’s 2007 rating strongly predicts its collateral risk and borrowing following thefirst Greek debt crisis

Page 26: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Testing Banking Panics [Test #1]

1 Main Predictions

– Banking panic: an increase in a bank’s risky collateral does NOT reflect increasedholdings

– Risk-shifting: increase in risky collateral DOES reflect increased holdings

2 Problem: Banks don’t reveal what they hold

– Solution: Bank stress tests forced them to reveal their sovereign debt holdings!

3 Estimate OLS regression:

∆Holdingsit = α+ δt + β∆Pledgedit + εit

– β = 0: Banking panics (increase in collateral does NOT reflect increase inholdings)

– β = 1: Risk-shifting (increase in collateral DOES reflect increase in holdings)

Page 27: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Test #1 Results [Table 3]

∆Holdingsit = α+ δt + β∆Pledgedit + εit

Dependent Variable

Sample AllBank Ratingi,07

<AA-

Bank Ratingi,07

>=AA-

(2) (4) (6)

∆t+1,i Distressed Sovereign

Debt Pledgedt/Assetsi,07

0.444** 0.542** 0.047

(0.185) (0.196) (0.182)

Time Fixed Effects Y Y Y

Obs 106 50 56

Banks 53 25 28

R2 0.198 0.274 0.025

∆t+1,i Distressed Sovereign Debt Holdingst/Assetsi,07

For each $1 increase in collateral, holdings increase by $0.44

The relationship is strong for lower-rated banks, consistent with risk-shifting

⇒ Banking panics can explain at most 56% of ECB borrowing

Page 28: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Banking panics: Test #2

1 Country-level factors are the most plausible drivers of differences in liquiditye.g., bad news about distressed countries can lead to country-wide deposit flight

2 Regression:

yit = α+ γct + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

– γct = full set of country-time dummies

– β > 0: Bank Rating predicts ECB borrowing and collateral risk within countries

Page 29: Who Borrows from the Lender of Last Resort?1pages.stern.nyu.edu/~pschnabl/slides/LenderLastResortSlides.pdf · -09 -09 9 9 ep-09 ov-09 -10 -10 0 0 ep-10 ov-10 -11 -11 1 1 ep-11 ov-11

Empirical Analysis

Test #2 Results [Table 4]

yit = α+ γct + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

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Table 4: Bank Rating and LOLR Borrowing (country-time fixed effects)

This table examines the effect of bank ratings on ECB borrowing and collateral pledged with the ECB. The unit of observation is at the bank-

week level and the sample covers the period from August 2007 to December 2011. All Columns include country-time fixed effects and bank fixed

effects. All variables are defined in Table 2. All regressions are clustered at the bank-level *** significant at 1% level, ** significant at 5% level,

and * significant at 10%-level.

Dependent Variable

Borrowing

Indicatorit

Log(Borrowing)it Collateral Ratingit Distressed Sovereign

Debtit/Assetsi,07

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Bank Ratingi,07* Post-Greek Bailoutt 0.047*** 0.035** 0.062** 0.054*

(0.012) (0.016) (0.030) (0.030)

Bank Rating i,07* Post-Lehmant 0.013 0.009 -0.005 -0.015

(0.011) (0.014) (0.024) (0.035)

Country-Time Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Bank Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Banks 292 292 287 276

Observations 51,684 51,684 45,997 48,852

R2 0.518 0.818 0.766 0.733

β statistically significant, but 22-58% smaller after controlling for country-time FE

Banking panics explains at most 58%; consistent with Test #1 results

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Empirical Analysis

Banking Panics: Test #3

1 Look only at non-distressed country banks (German, French, Dutch banks . . .)e.g., not subject to deposit flight

2 Regression:yit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

– Run the test using only non-distressed country banks

– β > 0: Bank rating predicts ECB borrowing and collateral risk outside thedistressed countries

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Empirical Analysis

Test #3 Results [Table 5]

yit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

-55-

Table 5: Bank Rating and LOLR Borrowing (non-distressed countries)

This table examines the effect of bank ratings on ECB borrowing and collateral pledged with the ECB. The unit of observation is at the bank-

week level and the sample covers banks headquartered in non-distressed countries (European countries other than Greece, Ireland, Italy, Portugal,

and Spain) from August 2007 to December 2011. All variables are defined in Table 2. All columns include week fixed effects and bank fixed

effects. All regressions are clustered at the bank-level *** significant at 1% level, ** significant at 5% level, and * significant at 10%-level.

Sample Non-distressed Sovereigns

Dependent Variable Borrowing

Indicatorit Log(Borrowing)it

Collateral

Ratingit

Distressed

Sovereign

Debtit/Assetsi,07

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Bank Ratingi,07* Post-Greek Bailoutt 0.043*** 0.047*** 0.068** 0.049*

(0.012) (0.015) (0.033) (0.026)

Bank Rating i,07* Post-Lehmant 0.012 0.011 0.012 0.003

(0.013) (0.014) (0.023) (0.023)

Time Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Bank Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Banks 234 234 229 221

Observations 41,418 41,418 36,912 39,117

R2 0.486 0.799 0.769 0.673

β statistically significant, but up to 60% smaller for non-distressed country banks

Consistent with tests #1 and #2 results

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Empirical Analysis

Testing Political Economy

1 Banks invest in risky assets because they are pressured by regulators

– ECB may want to act as a LOLR to sovereigns but is restricted

– Instead, lends to banks to support sovereigns

– Regulatory pressure amplifies banks’ risk-shifting incentives

– Both risk-shifting and political economy involve active risk-taking

2 Regression:

DistressedCountrySovereignShareit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

– Run our test using only non-distressed country banks

– β > 0: Bank rating predicts distressed-country sovereign debt pledging bynon-distressed country banks

⇒ not due to regulatory pressure

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Empirical Analysis

Testing Political Economy [Tables 5 and 7]

DistressedCountrySovereignShareit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + εit

Bank Headquarters

Sample All Publicly Listed

Distressed Sovereign Distressed Sovereign

Debtit/Assetsi,07 Debtit/Assetsi,07

(1) (2)

Bank Ratingi,07* Post-Greek Bailoutt 0.036* 0.300**

(0.019) (0.137)

Bank Rating i,07* Post-Lehmant 0.003 0.118

(0.017) (0.085)

Week Fixed Effects Y Y

Bank Fixed Effects Y Y

Banks 221 29

Observations 41,418 5,131

R2 0.486 0.779

Non-distressed Sovereigns

Dependent Variable

Bank rating remains predictive for non-distressed country banks

Relationship is particularly strong for large (i.e, publicly-listed) banks

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Empirical Analysis

Other Differences in Private Valuation

1 Banks invest in risky assets because of differences in private valuation

– Due to differences in their business models, expertise, or ‘optimism’

– All explanations emphasize active risk-taking

2 Does not predict the result that weaker banks pledge riskier collateral– that is the main prediction of risk-shifting

3 Unlikely to apply to distressed-country sovereign debt

4 Regression:

yit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + γXit ∗ Postt + εit

– Xit controls for bank size, business type, and funding structure

– β > 0: Bank rating continues to predict ECB borrowing and collateral after controls

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Empirical Analysis

Testing Differences in Private Valuation [Table 6]

yit = αi + δt + βBankRatingi,07 ∗ Postt + γXit ∗ Postt + εit

-56-

Table 6: Bank Rating and LOLR Borrowing (after controls)

This table examines the effect of bank ratings on ECB borrowing and collateral pledged with the ECB. The unit of observation is at the bank-

week level and the sample covers the period from August 2007 to December 2011. All variables are defined in Table 2. All variables include

controls for bank size, deposit share, loan share, distressed-country debt (as of August 2007) and interactions of these variables with Post-Greek

Bailoutt and Post-Lehmant (coefficients not shown). All columns include week fixed effects and bank fixed effects. All regressions are clustered

at the bank-level *** significant at 1% level, ** significant at 5% level, and * significant at 10%-level.

Dependent Variable

Borrowing

Indicatorit

Log(Borrowing)it

Collateral

Ratingit

Distressed Sovereign

Debtit/Assetsi,07

(1) (2) (3) (4)

Bank Ratingi,07* Post-Greek Bailoutt 0.039*** 0.055*** 0.171*** 0.207**

(0.011) (0.019) (0.047) (0.067)

Bank Rating i,07* Post-Lehmant -0.013 0.042*** -0.004 0.098*

(0.010) (0.015) (0.027) (0.048)

Time Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Bank Fixed Effects Y Y Y Y

Banks 292 292 272 276

Observations 48,852 48,852 43,720 48,852

R2 0.492 0.811 0.684 0.656

β almost unchanged after controlling for: log(Assets), Deposit Share, Loan Share,and pre-crisis Distressed-Country Sovereign Debt

⇒ No evidence supporting differences in private valuations

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Empirical Analysis

Additional results and robustness

1 Results stronger for publicly listed banks Table 7

2 Results robust to using alternative bank quality measure (CDS) Table 8

3 Results similar to using alternative borrowing measures (borrowing/collateral,borrowing/assets) Table 9

4 Results qualitatively similar to using changes in bank ratings over time Table 10

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Empirical Analysis

Summing up: Total periphery sovereign debt collateral almost constant

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

EUro

Bill

ion

Sovereign debt pledged with ECB is roughly constant

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Empirical Analysis

. . . but large redistribution across banks

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bill

ion

Eu

ro

Rating <AA-

Rating >=AA-

First Greek Bailout

1/3 of Periphery sovereign debt moved from high-capital to low-capital banks

⇒ Risky assets transition to risky banks

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Empirical Analysis

. . . but large redistribution across banks

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Bili

on

Eu

ro

Rating <AA-

Rating >=AA-

First Greek Bailout

Similar result for all periphery-originated debt

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Conclusion

Conclusion

First paper to empirically analyze why banks’ take up LOLR funding

1 Weakly-capitalized banks actively invest in risky assets using LOLR funding

2 Rejects pure Bagehot view of the crisis; indicates risk-shifting and possiblypolitical economy

What do we learn from the results?

– We show that LOLR funding leads to a transitioning of risky assets to risky banks!

– One would hope for the opposite! ⇒ LOLR funding could exacerbate the crisis

– Results must be considered in the context of European financial crisis:

Net benefit of LOLR intervention depends on this cost versus beneficial externalities

⇒ LOLR intervention should directly address risk-shifting incentives of risky banks(restructuring, recapitalization)

⇒ Suggests that regulation and LOLR should be in a single entity (banking union)