while a lot of the economic press continues to be on ... · real taxable retail sales $50.0m over...
TRANSCRIPT
While a lot of the economic press continues to be on recession watch, signs of an imminent reversal of growth remain elusive in NC. The number of unemployed was down in September, leading to the first monthly drop in NC’s unemployment rate in a year. Employers continue to add jobs. And seasonally adjusted housing permits and retail sales continue to grow. However, that’s not to say there aren’t signs of concern for the economy. A slowdown in manufacturing, decline in job postings, increase in initial unemployment insurance claims, and decrease in business confidence (per the Richmond Fed’s recent business survey) are all worth monitoring closely.
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
6-M
onth
Pro
ject
edGr
owth
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Rate
NC US
North Carolina = 4.1%
United States = 3.5%
October 2019
NC Department of Commerce | Labor & Economic Analysis Division | 919.707.1500 | [email protected]
Monthly Dashboard*
Philadelphia Federal Reserve Leading Indicators for North Carolina
Unemployment Rate Comparison
4.1%NC
2.0 percentage points from 6.1% in September 2014
NC
US
*All data produced in this publication are based off September 2019 figures, are generated by LEAD, and have been seasonally adjusted and/or smoothed unless otherwise stated. Dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index.
NC
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia Note: August 2019 data most current available.
Data
Unemployment Rate Change
Change in Employed
Change in Unemployed
Labor Force Participation Rate
3.5%US
Unemployment Rate Trend
This leading index predicts the six-month growth rate of the state’s economy (as measured by the Phili Fed’s current indicator index). A positive number reflects economic growth, while a negative projects a decline.
2.4 percentage points from 5.9% in September 2014
Virginia
Tennessee
Georgia
South Carolina
North Carolina
Alabama
West Virginia
3,817 (1.8%) 275,000 (4.5%)
0.1 0.2
11,850 (0.2%) 391,000 (0.2%)
0.1 to 61.9% 0.0 to 63.2%
Industry Employment4,578,000 Total Nonfarm Jobs
8,000 over the month102,700 over the year
Source: NC Dept. of RevenueNote: August 2019 data most current available at time of release.
Real Taxable Retail Sales$50.0M over the month
$652.9M over the year
Source: United States Census Bureau Note: Includes multiple-unit housing.
Residential Building Permits1.2% over the month9.6% over the year
Source: LEAD; The Conference BoardNote: August 2019 data most current available at time of release.
Job Postings0.7% over the month2.8% over the year
1.5% over the month
1.0% over the yearNote: Not Seasonally Adjusted
Manufacturing Hours Worked
3.4
4.7
2.7
4.1
3.0
2.9
3.5
WV
VT
NH
RI
NJDEMD
DC
AK
HI
CTMA
TX
CA
MT
AZ
ID
NV
NM
CO
OR
KS
UT IL
WY
NE
SD
MN
IA
OK
ND
FL
MO
WI
GA
WA
AL
AR
MI
IN
NC
PA
LA
NY
MS
TN
VAKY
OH
SC
ME 2.2 4.1 5.0 6.22.9 3.5
Initial UI Claims13,998 Individuals Filing
211 over the month
11,418 over the yearSource: US Dept. of Labor, ETA
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019$4,000
$6,000
$8,000
$10,000
$12,000
$14,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
In M
illio
ns
0
10
20
30
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
In Th
ousa
nds
58%
59%
60%
61%
62%
2016 2017 2018 2019
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
2015 2016 2017 2018 20193,800
3,900
4,000
4,100
4,200
4,300
4,400
4,500
4,600
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
In Th
ousa
nds
NC Department of Commerce | Labor & Economic Analysis Division | 919.707.1500 | [email protected]
Source: NC Dept. of RevenueNote: August 2019 data most current available at time of release.
Source: United States Census BureauNote: Includes multiple-unit housing.
Unemployment Rate By County (Not Seasonally Adjusted)
Lowest
Highest
Buncombe 2.6%Henderson 2.9%Haywood 2.9%Orange 2.9%Wake 3.0%
Total Nonfarm Jobs Average Real Weekly Earnings (Private Nonfarm Sector)
Labor Force Participation Rate
Residential Building Permits
Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims
Real Taxable Retail Sales
Scotland 6.2%Hyde 5.6%Vance 5.6%Wilson 5.5%Halifax 5.5%2.6 3.3 3.9 4.5 5.3 6.2
*All data produced in this publication are based off September 2019 figures, are generated by LEAD, and have been seasonally adjusted and/or smoothed unless otherwise stated. Dollar amounts have been adjusted for inflation using the Consumer Price Index.
Source: US Dept. of Labor, ETA