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Which Way To The Exit? Paul Krugman

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Which Way To The Exit?

Paul Krugman

We’re going very badly in coping with the aftermath of crisis

Page 3: Which Way To The Exit? - Princeton University - Home

… which has led to persistent inadequacy of private spending

Page 4: Which Way To The Exit? - Princeton University - Home

… and very low rates of return on safe assets

Page 5: Which Way To The Exit? - Princeton University - Home

Fiscal profligacy did not cause the crisis

Page 6: Which Way To The Exit? - Princeton University - Home

But policy makers have nonetheless insisted that austerity is the solution

Page 7: Which Way To The Exit? - Princeton University - Home

Unfortunately, Keynes was right

Page 8: Which Way To The Exit? - Princeton University - Home

There are no austerity success stories

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Ireland CDS spread

Not even in terms of reassuring lenders

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-3

-2.5

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1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Perc

ent o

f EA

European current account imbalances

Germany

GIPSIs

Europe’s fundamental problem isn’t fiscal, it’s balance of payments

Page 11: Which Way To The Exit? - Princeton University - Home

And the severe problem of how to restore cost competitiveness

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“Internal devaluation” is very slow and painful

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